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USGS2010

Implementation of local grid refinement (LGR) for the Lake Michigan Basin regional groundwater-flow model

The U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating water availability and use within the Great Lakes Basin. This is a pilot effort to develop new techniques and methods to aid in the assessment of water availability. As part of the pilot program, a regional groundwater-flow model for the Lake Michigan Basin was developed using SEAWAT-2000. The regional model was used as a framework for assessing local-scale water availability through grid-refinement techniques. Two grid-refinement techniques, telescopic mesh refinement and local grid refinement, were used to illustrate the capability of the regional model to evaluate local-scale problems. An intermediate model was developed in central Michigan spanning an area of 454 square miles (mi2) using telescopic mesh refinement. Within the intermediate model, a smaller local model covering an area of 21.7 mi2 was developed and simulated using local grid refinement. Recharge was distributed in space and time using a daily output from a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance method. The soil-water-balance method derived recharge estimates from temperature and precipitation data output from an atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model. The particular atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model used, simulated climate change caused by high global greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere. The surface-water network simulated in the regional model was refined and simulated using a streamflow-routing package for MODFLOW. The refined models were used to demonstrate streamflow depletion and potential climate change using five scenarios. The streamflow-depletion scenarios include (1) natural conditions (no pumping), (2) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in surficial glacial deposits, (3) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in deeper glacial deposits, and (4) a pumping well near a stream; the well is open to a deep bedrock aquifer. Results indicated that a range of 59 to 50 percent of the water pumped originated from the stream for the shallow glacial and deep bedrock pumping scenarios, respectively. The difference in streamflow reduction between the shallow and deep pumping scenarios was compensated for in the deep well by deriving more water from regional sources. The climate-change scenario only simulated natural conditions from 1991-2044, so there was no pumping stress simulated. Streamflows were calculated for the simulated period and indicated that recharge over the period generally increased from the start of the simulation until approximately 2017, and decreased from then to the end of the simulation. Streamflow was highly correlated with recharge so that the lowest streamflows occurred in the later stress periods of the model when recharge was lowest.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2003

Arsenic in midwestern glacial deposits — Occurrence and relation to selected hydrogeologic and geochemical factors

Ground-water-quality data collected as part of 12 U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment studies during 1996-2001 were analyzed to (1) document arsenic occurrence in four types of gla-cial deposits that occur in large areas of the Midwest, (2) identify hydrogeologic or geochemical factors asso-ciated with elevated arsenic concentrations, and (3) search for clues as to arsenic source(s) or mechanism(s) of mobilization that could be useful for designing future studies. Arsenic and other water-quality constituents were sampled in 342 monitor and domestic wells in parts of Illinois Indiana Ohio Michigan and Wisconsin. Arsenic was detected (at a concentration >1 ?g/L) in one-third of the samples. The maximum concentration was 84 ?g/L, and the median was less than 1 ?g/L. Eight percent of samples had arsenic concentrations that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10?g/L. Samples were from four aquifer types?confined valley fill, unconfined valley fill, outwash plain, and till with sand lenses. Highest arsenic concentrations were found in reducing waters from valley-fill depos-its. In confined valley fill, all waters were reducing and old (recharged before 1953), and almost half of sam-ples had arsenic concentrations greater than the MCL. In unconfined valley fill, redox conditions and ages were varied, and elevated arsenic concentrations were sporadic. In both types of valley fill, elevated arsenic concentrations are linked to the underlying bedrock on the basis of spatial relations and geochemical correla-tions. In shallow (<50 ft) till with sand lenses, arsenic was detected in oxic or mixed waters, but concentra-tions were rarely greater than the MCL. In shallow out-wash-plain deposits, arsenic concentrations greater than the MCL were detected in waters that were reduc-ing and young (recharged after 1953). Although arsenic concentrations were signifi-cantly higher in deep wells (>150 ft), all deep wells were from a distinctive aquifer type (confined valley fill). It is not known whether wells at similar depths in other aquifer types would produce waters with simi-larly high arsenic concentrations. Correlations of arsenic with fluoride, strontium, and barium suggest that arsenic might be related to epi-genetic (Mississippi Valley-type) sulfide deposits in Paleozoic bedrock. Arsenic is typically released from sulfides by oxidation, but in the current study, the highest arsenic concentrations in glacial deposits were detected in reducing waters. Therefore, a link between epigenetic sulfides and elevated arsenic concentrations in glacial deposits would probably require a multi-step process.

Illinois, Indiana, Ohio↗

USGS2013

Relation between organic-wastewater compounds, groundwater geochemistry, and well characteristics for selected wells in Lansing, Michigan

In 2010, groundwater from 20 Lansing Board of Water and Light (BWL) production wells was tested for 69 organic-wastewater compounds (OWCs). The OWCs detected in one-half of the sampled wells are widely used in industrial and environmental applications and commonly occur in many wastes and stormwater. To identify factors that contribute to the occurrence of these constituents in BWL wells, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) interpreted the results of these analyses and related detections of OWCs to local characteristics and groundwater geochemistry. Analysis of groundwater-chemistry data collected by the BWL during routine monitoring from 1969 to 2011 indicates that the geochemistry of the BWL wells has changed over time, with the major difference being an increase in sodium and chloride. The concentrations of sodium and chloride were positively correlated to frequency of OWC detections. The BWL wells studied are all completed in the Saginaw aquifer, which consists of water-bearing sandstones of Pennsylvanian age. The Saginaw aquifer is underlain by the Parma-Bayport aquifer, and overlain by the Glacial aquifer. Two possible sources of sodium and chloride were evaluated: basin brines by way of the Parma-Bayport aquifer, and surficial sources by way of the Glacial aquifer. To determine if water from the underlying aquifer had influenced well-water geochemistry over time, the total dissolved solids concentration and changes in major ion concentrations were examined with respect to well depth, age, and pumping rate. To address a possible surficial source of sodium and chloride, 25 well, aquifer, or hydrologic characteristics, and 2 groundwater geochemistry variables that might influence whether, or the rate at which, water from the land surface could reach each well were compared to OWC detections and well chemistry. The statistical tests performed during this study, using available variables, indicated that reduced time of travel of water from the land surface to the well opening was significantly correlated with detections of OWCs. No specific well or aquifer characteristic was correlated with OWC detections; however, wells with detections tended to have less modeled confining material thickness (as simulated in the regional groundwater flow model), which is an estimate of the amount of clay or shale between the Glacial and Saginaw aquifers. Additional analyses and collection of other data would be required to more conclusively identify the source and to determine the potential vulnerability of other wells because each BWL well may have a somewhat unique set of characteristics that governs its response to pumping. Therefore, it is possible that a relevant explanatory variable was not included in this analysis. The current patterns of geochemistry, and the relation between these patterns and volume of pumpage for the BWL wells, indicates other wells may be susceptible to OWCs in the future.

Michigan↗

USGS1998

Surface-water quality at fixed sites in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages, Wisconsin and Michigan, and the effects of natural and human factors, 1993-95

Streamwater samples were collected from April 1993 through July 1995 at 11 fixed sites in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages Study Unit of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Water samples were collected monthly at all Fixed Sites, and an additional two to four samples were collected each year during periods of high flow. Streamflow was monitored continuously at the Fixed Sites for the duration of the study period. This report describes field techniques used to collect the water samples, and the analytical methods used for laboratory analyses, statistical analyses of the data, and an attempt to determine the effect of natural and anthropogenic factors on concentrations of nutrients and selected major ions and suspended solids. Locations of eight of the Fixed Sites were selected to represent areas with unique combinations of land use/land cover, surficial deposits, and bedrock geology and are referred to as 'indicator sites.' The remaining three sites were located near the mouths of major rivers and are referred to as 'integrator sites.' The integrator sites represent a large part of the total flow from the Study Unit to Green Bay and western Lake Michigan, and drain various combinations of land use, bedrock, and surficial deposits. These data indicate that land use and surficial deposits may be the primary factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations in this Study Unit. Median concentrations of nitrate at the forested sites were less than the National Median Concentration (NMC), and those at urban fixed sites were similar to the NMC. Median nitrate concentrations at the Tomorrow River, North Branch Milwaukee River, and Duck Creek agricultural indicator sites were twice the NMC, but median concentrations at the remaining agricultural indicator sites were similar to the NMC. Nitrate concentrations at one agricultural indicator site exceeded the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) maximum contaminant level in three run-off samples in the growing seasons of 1994 and 1995. Median concentrations of total phosphorus at the forested indicator sites were below the NMC. Tomorrow River was the only agricultural indicator site where the median total-phosphorus concentration was less than the NMC; median concentrations at the remaining agricultural Fixed Sites were similar to the NMC and exceeded 0.1 mg/L, the USEPA suggested total-phosphorus concentration in flowing water. The USEPA recommends that total-phosphorus concentration not exceed this limit to discourage excessive aquatic plant growth in flowing waters. Median total-phosphorus concentration at the urban indicator site was less than the urban NMC. Median concentrations for both nitrate and total phosphorus at the mouth of the Fox River and the Milwaukee River integrator sites were similar to the NMC for the dominant land use, agriculture, within their basins, and were lower than that at the Menominee River integrator site with a dominant forest land use. During this study, potassium concentrations were generally highest in areas of clay-dominated surficial deposits, silica was generally highest in areas of sandy surficial deposits, iron generally highest in areas of igneous/metamorphic bedrock, and calcium generally highest in areas of carbonate bedrock. The highest median fluoride concentration occurred at an urban site that receives treated water.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2010

Regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin in support of Great Lakes Basin water availability and use studies

A regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and surrounding areas has been developed in support of the Great Lakes Basin Pilot project under the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Availability and Use Program. The transient 2-million-cell model incorporates multiple aquifers and pumping centers that create water-level drawdown that extends into deep saline waters. The 20-layer model simulates the exchange between a dense surface-water network and heterogeneous glacial deposits overlying stratified bedrock of the Wisconsin/Kankakee Arches and Michigan Basin in the Lower and Upper Peninsulas of Michigan; eastern Wisconsin; northern Indiana; and northeastern Illinois. The model is used to quantify changes in the groundwater system in response to pumping and variations in recharge from 1864 to 2005. Model results quantify the sources of water to major pumping centers, illustrate the dynamics of the groundwater system, and yield measures of water availability useful for water-resources management in the region. This report is a complete description of the methods and datasets used to develop the regional model, the underlying conceptual model, and model inputs, including specified values of material properties and the assignment of external and internal boundary conditions. The report also documents the application of the SEAWAT-2000 program for variable-density flow; it details the approach, advanced methods, and results associated with calibration through nonlinear regression using the PEST program; presents the water-level, drawdown, and groundwater flows for various geographic subregions and aquifer systems; and provides analyses of the effects of pumping from shallow and deep wells on sources of water to wells, the migration of groundwater divides, and direct and indirect groundwater discharge to Lake Michigan. The report considers the role of unconfined conditions at the regional scale as well as the influence of salinity on groundwater flow. Lastly, it describes several categories of limitations and discusses ways of extending the regional model to address issues at the local scale. Results of the simulations portray a regional groundwater-flow system that, over time, has largely maintained its natural predevelopment configuration but that locally has been strongly affected by well withdrawals. The quantity of rainfall in the Lake Michigan Basin and adjacent areas supports a dense surface-water network and recharge rates consistent with generally shallow water tables and predominantly shallow groundwater flow. At the regional scale, pumping has not caused major modifications of the shallow flow system, but it has resulted in decreases in base flow to streams and in direct discharge to Lake Michigan (about 2 percent of the groundwater discharged and about 0.5 cubic foot per second per mile of shoreline). On the other hand, well withdrawals have caused major reversals in regional flow patterns around pumping centers in deep, confined aquifers - most noticeably in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system on the west side of Lake Michigan near the cities of Green Bay and Milwaukee in eastern Wisconsin, and around Chicago in northeastern Illinois, as well as in some shallow bedrock aquifers (for example, in the Marshall aquifer near Lansing, Mich.). The reversals in flow have been accompanied by large drawdowns with consequent local decrease in storage. On the west side of Lake Michigan, groundwater withdrawals have caused appreciable migration of the deep groundwater divides. Before the advent of pumping, the deep Lake Michigan groundwater-basin boundaries extended west of the Lake Michigan surface-water basin boundary, in some places by tens of miles. Over time, the pumping centers have replaced Lake Michigan as the regional sink for the deep flow system. The regional model is intended to support the framework pilot study of water availability and use for the Great Lakes Basin (Reeves, in press).

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Integrated synoptic surveys of the hydrodynamics and water-quality distributions in two Lake Michigan rivermouth mixing zones using an autonomous underwater vehicle and a manned boat

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Monitoring Network for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries, launched a pilot project in 2010 to determine the value of integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouths using autonomous underwater vehicle technology in response to a call for rivermouth research, which includes study domains that envelop both the fluvial and lacustrine boundaries of the rivermouth mixing zone. The pilot project was implemented at two Lake Michigan rivermouths with largely different scales, hydrodynamics, and settings, but employing primarily the same survey techniques and methods. The Milwaukee River Estuary Area of Concern (AOC) survey included measurements in the lower 2 to 3 miles of the Milwaukee, Menomonee, and Kinnickinnic Rivers and inner and outer Milwaukee Harbor. This estuary is situated in downtown Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and is the most populated basin that flows directly into Lake Michigan. In contrast, the Manitowoc rivermouth has a relatively small harbor separating the rivermouth from Lake Michigan, and the Manitowoc River Watershed is primarily agricultural. Both the Milwaukee and Manitowoc rivermouths are unregulated and allow free exchange of water with Lake Michigan. This pilot study of the Milwaukee River Estuary and Manitowoc rivermouth using an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) paired with a manned survey boat resulted in high spatial and temporal resolution datasets of basic water-quality parameter distributions and hydrodynamics. The AUV performed well in these environments and was found primarily well-suited for harbor and nearshore surveys of three-dimensional water-quality distributions. Both case studies revealed that the use of a manned boat equipped with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and multiparameter sonde (and an optional flow-through water-quality sampling system) was the best option for riverine surveys. To ensure that the most accurate and highest resolution velocity data were collected concurrently with the AUV surveys, the pilot study used a manned boat equipped with an ADCP. Combining the AUV and manned boat datasets resulted in datasets that are essentially continuous from the fluvial through the lacustrine zones of a rivermouth. Whereas the pilot studies were completed during low flows on the tributaries, completion of surveys at higher flows using the same techniques is possible, but the use of the AUV would be limited to areas with relatively low velocities (less than 2 feet per second) such as the harbors and nearshore zones of Lake Michigan. Overall, this pilot study aimed at evaluation of AUV technology for integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouth mixing zones was successful, and the techniques and methods employed in this pilot study should be transferrable to other sites with similar success. The use of the AUV provided significant time savings compared to traditional sampling techniques. For example, the survey of outer Milwaukee Harbor using the AUV required less than 7 hours for approximately 600 profiles compared to the 150 hours it would have taken using traditional methods in a manned boat (a 95 percent reduction in man-hours). The integrated datasets resulting from the AUV and manned survey boat are of high value and present a picture of the mixing and hydrodynamics of these highly dynamic, highly variable rivermouth mixing zones from the relatively well-mixed fluvial environment through the rivermouth to the stratified lacustrine receiving body of Lake Michigan. Such datasets not only allow researchers to understand more about the physical processes occurring in these rivermouths, but they provide high spatial resolution data required for interpretation of relations between disparate point samples and calibration and validation of numerical models.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2000

Ground-water quality and vulnerability to contamination in selected agricultural areas of southeastern Michigan, northwestern Ohio, and northeastern Indiana

Ground-water quality was assessed in the northeastern part of the Corn Belt, where tile-drained row crops are underlain by fractured glacial till. Data were collected from 30 shallow monitor wells and 18 co-located domestic wells as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water- Quality Assessment in the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin. Pesticides or pesticide degradates were detected in 41 percent of the monitor wells and 6 percent of the domestic wells. The pesticides detected closely correspond to those most heavily applied—herbicides used on corn and soybeans. Pesticide degradates were detected three times more frequently, and at higher concentrations, than were parent compounds. No pesticide concentration exceeded a USEPA Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL), but MCL’s have not been established for 9 of the 11 compounds detected. Thirty-seven percent of monitor-well samples had nitrate concentrations indicative of human influences such as fertilizer, manure or septic systems. Nitrate was the only chemical constituent detected at a concentration greater than an MCL. The MCL was exceeded in 7 percent of samples from monitor wells which were too shallow to be used as a source of drinking water. Pesticide and nitrate concentrations in the study area are low relative to other agricultural areas of the Nation. Several authors have suggested that ground water in parts of the Upper Midwest is minimally contaminated because it is protected by the surficial glacial till or tile drains. These ideas are examined in light of the relations between concentration, well depth, and groundwater age in the study area. Most of the shallow ground water is hydraulically connected to the land surface, based on the observations that 83 percent of waters from monitor wells were recharged after 1953, and 57 percent contained a pesticide or an elevated nitrate concentration. Fractures or sand-and-gravel stringers within the till are the probable pathways. In some areas, deeper parts of the groundwater- flow system are also hydraulically connected to the land surface. Almost half the waters from wells 50 to 100 feet deep were recharged after 1953. Anthropogenic constituents were detected in samples from three domestic wells 60 to 121 feet deep, in areas where the till is relatively coarse-grained. The hydrogeologic system has several geochemical characteristics conducive to transformations or sorption of nitrate or pesticides: (1) the till is clay-rich, has a high organic-carbon content, and contains an abundance of pyrite-rich shale fragments, (2) the ground water has low dissolved- oxygen concentrations, and (3) iron and manganese oxides and oxyhyroxides line the faces of fractures in the unsaturated zone. Although the aquifer system appears be protected from contamination in some areas, the fact that the surficial till is heterogeneous and of variable thickness suggests that the protection is not uniform. The protection can be breached by fractures or sand-and-gravel stringers, which are apparent in core samples but not noted on domestic-well logs.

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗

USGS2011

Predicting lake trophic state by relating Secchi-disk transparency measurements to Landsat-satellite imagery for Michigan inland lakes, 2003-05 and 2007-08

Inland lakes are an important economic and environmental resource for Michigan. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Michigan Department of Natural Resources and Environment have been cooperatively monitoring the quality of selected lakes in Michigan through the Lake Water Quality Assessment program. Sampling for this program began in 2001; by 2010, 730 of Michigan’s 11,000 inland lakes are expected to have been sampled once. Volunteers coordinated by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources and Environment began sampling lakes in 1974 and continue to sample (in 2010) approximately 250 inland lakes each year through the Michigan Cooperative Lakes Monitoring Program. Despite these sampling efforts, it still is impossible to physically collect measurements for all Michigan inland lakes; however, Landsat-satellite imagery has been used successfully in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and elsewhere to predict the trophic state of unsampled inland lakes greater than 20 acres by producing regression equations relating in-place Secchi-disk measurements to Landsat bands. This study tested three alternatives to methods previously used in Michigan to improve results for predicted statewide Trophic State Index (TSI) computed from Secchi-disk transparency (TSI (SDT)). The alternative methods were used on 14 Landsat-satellite scenes with statewide TSI (SDT) for two time periods (2003– 05 and 2007–08). Specifically, the methods were (1) satellitedata processing techniques to remove areas affected by clouds, cloud shadows, haze, shoreline, and dense vegetation for inland lakes greater than 20 acres in Michigan; (2) comparison of the previous method for producing a single open-water predicted TSI (SDT) value (which was based on an area of interest (AOI) and lake-average approach) to an alternative Gethist method for identifying open-water areas in inland lakes (which follows the initial satellite-data processing and targets the darkest pixels, representing the deepest water, before regression equations are created); and (3) checking to see whether the predicted TSI (SDT) values compared well between two regression equations, one previously used in Michigan and an alternative equation from the hydrologic literature. The combination of improved satellite-data processing techniques and the Gethist method to identify open-water areas in inland lakes during 2003–05 and 2007–08 provided a stronger relation and statistical significance between predicted TSI (SDT) and measured TSI than did the AOI lake-average method; differences in results for the two methods were significant at the 99-percent confidence level. With regard to the comparison of the regression equations, there were no statistically significant differences at the 95-percent confidence level between results from the two equations. The previously used equation, in combination with the Gethist method, yielded coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values of 0.71 and 0.77 for the periods 2003–05 and 2007–08, respectively. The alternative equation, in combination with the Gethist method, yielded R 2 values of 0.74 and 0.75 for 2003–05 and 2007–08, respectively. Predicted TSI (SDT) and measured TSI (SDT) values for lakes used in the regression equations compared well, with R 2 values of 0.95 and 0.96 for predicted TSI (SDT) for 2003–05 and 2007–08, respectively. The R 2 values for statewide predicted TSI (SDT) for all inland lakes with available open-water areas for 2003–05 and 2007–08 were 0.91 and 0.93, respectively. Although the two equations predicted similar trophic-state classes, the alternative equation is planned to be used for future prediction of TSI (SDT) values for Michigan inland lakes, to promote consistency in comparing predicted values between States and for potential use in trend analysis.

Michigan↗

USGS1997

Stream habitat characteristics of fixed sites in the western Lake Michigan drainages, Wisconsin and Michigan, 1993-95

Habitat characteristics of 11 fixed sites in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages were examined by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1993 through 1995 as part of the ecological assessment of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Evaluation of habitat consisted of more than 75 measurements at three spatial levels: drainage basin, stream segment between major tributaries (length from 1 to 14 kilometers), and stream reach (approximately 150 meters). The 11 fixed sites consisted of 8 "indicator" sites with drainage basins that differ in bedrock type, surficial deposits, and land use; and 3 "integrator" sites with drainage basins that contain a mixture of bedrock type, surficial deposits, and land use. Spatial and temporal variations in habitat characteristics are described and compared. Comparisons are limited to indicator sites except for comparisons amongbasin characteristics, which include all fixed sites. Two habitat classification schemes used in Wisconsin and Michigan were used to rank the quality of habitat in indicator streams. Reach-level data were collected at two additional reaches at three of the indicator sites to assess the representativeness of the reach for overall stream conditions. Although the number of sites is small, statistical analyses indicate that spatial distribution of several characteristics can be related to land use, geology, topography, and width of the riparian zone. Land use and geology, in combination, appeared to be important factors in controlling flood magnitudes. Annual mean flow was correlated with basin shape and drainage density and low flow was correlated with permeability of soils in the basin. At the reach level, a wide variety of characteristics were observed at the eight indicator sites, with many of the characteristics significantly different between sites. Spatial differences in some reach characteristics can be attributed to the percentage of agriculture in the drainage basin, type of surficial deposits, and width of the riparian zone. Temporal variability in width, depth, and velocity can be attributed to variable flow conditions; whereas temporal variability in streambank measurements are attributed to problematic identification of the boundary between the flood plain and streambanks. Data from multiple-reach sites indicate that the primary reach adequately represented the variability found within the stream segment for depth, streambank stability index, and canopy angle. However, velocity, dominant substrate type, embeddedness, streambank height, streambank angle, and streambank vegetative stability differed among the multiple reaches at one or more of the three sites. Correlation analyses of habitat characteristics with median concentrations of four nutrients, pH, and specific conductance indicates that dissolved nitrate plus nitrite concentrations are related to percentage of agriculture in the basin and fine-grained sediment deposition in the reach. Geology and land use appear to be major influences on pH, but their influence on specific conductance, although expected, was not confirmed in this study. Habitat evaluation scores at the eight indicator sites ranged from poor to good. Scores were correlated to the percentage of agricultural or urban land in the drainage basins, width of the riparian zone, and streambank stability index. Results from this study illustrate the need for collection of habitat data at multiple scales along with water-chemistry data for determining major influences on distribution of aquatic communities. These results also indicate the importance of collecting land use, geological, and geomorphic information at the drainage-basin level to adequately describe how natural and human factors influence local aquatic habitat conditions.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Comparison of streamflow and water-quality data collection techniques for the Saginaw River, Michigan

In 2009, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey developed a plan to compare the effect of various streamgaging and water-quality collection techniques on streamflow and stream water-quality data for the Saginaw River, Michigan. The Saginaw River is the primary contributor of surface runoff to Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron, draining approximately 70 percent of the Saginaw Bay watershed. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has listed the Saginaw Bay system as an "Area of Concern" due to many factors, including excessive sediment and nutrient concentrations in the water. Current efforts to estimate loading of sediment and nutrients to Saginaw Bay utilize water-quality samples collected using a surface-grab technique and flow data that are uncertain during specific conditions. Comparisons of current flow and water-quality sampling techniques to alternative techniques were assessed between April 2009 and September 2009 at two locations in the Saginaw River. Streamflow estimated using acoustic Doppler current profiling technology was compared to a traditional stage-discharge technique. Complex conditions resulting from the influence of Saginaw Bay on the Saginaw River were able to be captured using the acoustic technology, while the traditional stage-discharge technique failed to quantify these effects. Water-quality samples were collected at two locations and on eight different dates, utilizing both surface-grab and depth-integrating multiple-vertical techniques. Sixteen paired samples were collected and analyzed for suspended sediment, turbidity, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, orthophosphate, nitrite, nitrate, and ammonia. Results indicate that concentrations of constituents associated with suspended material, such as suspended sediment, turbidity, and total phosphorus, are underestimated when samples are collected using the surface-grab technique. The median magnitude of the relative percent difference in concentration based on sampling technique was 37 percent for suspended sediment, 26 percent for turbidity, and 9.7 percent for total phosphorus samples collected at both. Acoustic techniques were also used to assist in the determination of the effectiveness of using acoustic-backscatter information for estimating the suspended-sediment concentration of the river water. Backscatter data was collected by use of an acoustic Doppler current profiler, and a Van Dorn manual sampler was simultaneously used to collect discrete water samples at 10 depths (3.5, 7.5, 11, 14, 15.5, 17.5, 19.5, 20.5, 22, and 24.5 ft below the water surface) along two vertical profiles near the center of the Saginaw River near Bay City. The Van Dorn samples were analyzed for suspended-sediment concentrations, and these data were then used to develop a relationship between acoustic-backscatter data. Acoustic-backscatter data was strongly correlated to sediment concentrations and, by using a linear regression, was able to explain 89 percent of the variability. Although this regression technique showed promise for using acoustic backscatter to estimate suspended-sediment concentration, attempts to compare suspended-sediment concentrations to the acoustic signal-to-noise ratio estimates, recorded at the fixed acoustic streamflow-gaging station near Bay City (04157061), resulted in a poor correlation.

Michigan↗

USGS2015

Analysis of regional rainfall-runoff parameters for the Lake Michigan Diversion hydrological modeling

The Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting (LMDA) system has been developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District (USACE-Chicago) and the State of Illinois as a part of the interstate Great Lakes water regulatory program. The diverted Lake Michigan watershed is a 673-square-mile watershed that is comprised of the Chicago River and Calumet River watersheds. They originally drained into Lake Michigan, but now flow to the Mississippi River watershed via three canals constructed in the Chicago area in the early twentieth century. Approximately 393 square miles of the diverted watershed is ungaged, and the runoff from the ungaged portion of the diverted watershed has been estimated by the USACE-Chicago using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) program. The accuracy of simulated runoff depends on the accuracy of the parameter set used in the HSPF program. Nine parameter sets comprised of the North Branch, Little Calumet, Des Plaines, Hickory Creek, CSSC, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008 have been developed at different time periods and used by the USACE-Chicago. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey and the USACE-Chicago collaboratively analyzed the parameter sets using nine gaged watersheds in or adjacent to the diverted watershed to assess the predictive accuracies of selected parameter sets. Six of the parameter sets, comprising North Branch, Hickory Creek, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008, were applied to the nine gaged watersheds for evaluating their simulation accuracy from water years 1996 to 2011. The nine gaged watersheds were modeled by using the three LMDA land-cover types (grass, forest, and hydraulically connected imperviousness) based on the 2006 National Land Cover Database, and the latest meteorological and precipitation data consistent with the current (2014) LMDA modeling framework. Results indicate that the North Branch and Hickory Creek parameter sets, which belong to the original calibration group, attained an overall “satisfactory” rating on monthly runoff volumes based on the three performance statistics selected, but the annual and over-the-period runoff volumes were generally underestimated. Parameter sets CTE and 2008 attained a similar satisfactory rating on monthly runoff volumes but the annual and over-the-period runoff volumes were overestimated in general. Although the percent bias was improved, the CTE and 2008 parameter sets also had increased residuals in monthly runoff volumes and decreased quality of the model fit to the measured streamflows relative to the North Branch and Hickory Creek parameter sets. The NIPC and 1999 parameter sets, on the other hand, had larger percent bias and residuals in monthly runoff volumes, and underestimated the annual and over-the-period runoff volumes. Recalibration of the HSPF parameters to the updated inputs and land covers was completed on two representative watershed models selected from the nine by using a manual method (HSPEXP) and an automatic method (PEST). The objective of the recalibration was to develop a regional parameter set that improves the accuracy in runoff volume prediction for the nine study watersheds. Knowledge about flow and watershed characteristics plays a vital role for validating the calibration in both manual and automatic methods. The best performing parameter set was determined by the automatic calibration method on a two-watershed model. Applying this newly determined parameter set to the nine watersheds for runoff volume simulation resulted in “very good” ratings in five watersheds, an improvement as compared to “very good” ratings achieved for three watersheds by the North Branch parameter set.

Illinois, Indiana↗

USGS2006

Areal distribution and concentration of contaminants of concern in surficial streambed and lakebed sediments, Lake St. Clair and tributaries, Michigan, 1990-2003

As part of the Lake St. Clair Regional Monitoring Project, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated data collected from surficial streambed and lakebed sediments in the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair drainages. This study incorporates data collected from 1990 through 2003 and focuses primarily on the U.S. part of the Lake St. Clair Basin, including Lake St. Clair, the St. Clair River, and tributaries to Lake St. Clair. Comparable data from the Canadian part of the study area are included where available. The data are compiled into 4 chemical classes and consist of 21 compounds. The data are compared to effects-based sediment-quality guidelines, where the Threshold Effect Level and Lowest Effect Level represent concentrations below which adverse effects on biota are not expected and the Probable Effect Level and Severe Effect Level represent concentrations above which adverse effects on biota are expected to be frequent. Maps in the report show the spatial distribution of the sampling locations and illustrate the concentrations relative to the selected sediment-quality guidelines. These maps indicate that sediment samples from certain areas routinely had contaminant concentrations greater than the Threshold Effect Concentration or Lowest Effect Level. These locations are the upper reach of the St. Clair River, the main stem and mouth of the Clinton River, Big Beaver Creek, Red Run, and Paint Creek. Maps also indicated areas that routinely contained sediment contaminant concentrations that were greater than the Probable Effect Concentration or Severe Effect Level. These locations include the upper reach of the St. Clair River, the main stem and mouth of the Clinton River, Red Run, within direct tributaries along Lake St. Clair and in marinas within the lake, and within the Clinton River headwaters in Oakland County. Although most samples collected within Lake St. Clair were from sites adjacent to the mouths of its tributaries, samples analyzed for trace-element concentrations were collected throughout the lake. The distribution of trace-element concentrations corresponded well with the results of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of flow patterns from the Clinton River into Lake St. Clair. The model was developed independent from the bed sediment analysis described in this report; yet it showed a zone of deposition for outflow from the Clinton River into Lake St. Clair that corresponded well with the spatial distribution of trace-element concentrations. This zone runs along the western shoreline of Lake St. Clair from L'Anse Creuse Bay to St. Clair Shores, Michigan and is reflected in the samples analyzed for mercury and cadmium. Statistical summaries of the concentration data are presented for most contaminants, and selected statistics are compared to effects-based sediment-quality guidelines. Summaries were not computed for dieldrin, chlordane, hexachlorocyclohexane, lindane, and mirex because insufficient data are available for these contaminants. A statistical comparison showed that the median concentration for hexachlorobenzene, anthracene, benz[ a ]anthracene, chrysene, and pyrene are greater than the Threshold Effect Concentration or Lowest Effect Level. Probable Effect Concentration Quotients provide a mechanism for comparing the concentrations of contaminant mixtures against effects-based biota data. Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were calculated for individual samples and compared to effects-based toxicity ranges. The toxicity-range categories used in this study were nontoxic (quotients < 0.5) and toxic (quotients > 0.5). Of the 546 individual samples for which Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were calculated, 469 (86 percent) were categorized as being nontoxic and 77 (14 percent) were categorized as being toxic. Bed-sediment samples with toxic Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were collected from Paint Creek, Galloway Creek, the main stem of the Clinton River, Big Beaver Creek, Red Run, Clinton River towards the mouth, Lake St. Clair along the western shore, and the St. Clair River near Sarnia.

Michigan↗

USGS2013

Hydraulic and water-quality data collection for the investigation of Great Lakes tributaries for Asian carp spawning and egg-transport suitability

If the invasive Asian carps (bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) migrate to the Great Lakes, in spite of the efforts to stop their advancement, these species will require the fast-flowing water of the Great Lakes tributaries for spawning and recruitment in order to establish a growing population. Two Lake Michigan tributaries (the Milwaukee and St. Joseph Rivers) and two Lake Erie tributaries (the Maumee and Sandusky Rivers) were investigated to determine if these tributaries possess the hydraulic and water-quality characteristics to allow successful spawning of Asian carps. To examine this issue, standard U.S. Geological Survey sampling protocols and instrumentation for discharge and water-quality measurements were used, together with differential global positioning system data for georeferencing. Non-standard data-processing techniques, combined with detailed laboratory analysis of Asian carp egg characteristics, allowed an assessment of the transport capabilities of each of these four tributaries. This assessment is based solely on analysis of observed data and did not utilize the collected data for detailed transport modeling. All four tributaries exhibited potential settling zones for Asian carp eggs both within the estuaries and river mouths and within the lower 100 kilometers (km) of the river. Dams played a leading role in defining these settling zones, with the exception of dams on the Sandusky River. The impoundments created by many of the larger dams on these rivers acted to sufficiently decelerate the flows and allowed the shear velocity to drop below the settling velocity for Asian carp eggs, which would allow the eggs to fall out of suspension and settle on the bottom where it is thought the eggs would perish. While three rivers exhibited these settling zones upstream of the larger dams, not all settling zones are likely to have such effects on egg transport. The Milwaukee River exhibited only a short settling zone upstream of the Grafton Dam, whereas the St. Joseph and Maumee Rivers both had extensive settling zones (>5 km) behind major dams. These longer settling zones are likely to capture more eggs than shorter settling reaches. All four rivers exhibited settling zones at their river mouths, with the Lake Erie tributaries having much larger settling zones extending more than 10 km up the tributaries. While hydraulic data from all four rivers indicated settling of eggs is possible in some locations, all four rivers also exhibited sufficient temperatures, water-quality characteristics, turbulence, and transport times outside of settling zones for successful suspension and development of Asian carp eggs to the hatching stage before the threat of settlement. These observed data indicate that these four Great Lakes tributaries have sufficient hydraulic and water-quality characteristics to support successful spawning and recruitment of Asian carps. The data indicate that with the right temperature and flow conditions, river reaches as short as 25 km may allow Asian carp eggs sufficient time to develop to hatching. Additionally, examining the relation between critical shear velocity and mean velocity, egg settling appears to take place at mean velocities in the range of 15–25 centimeters per second, a much lower value than is generally cited in the literature. A first-order estimate of the minimum transport velocity for Asian carp eggs in a river can be obtained by using mean flow depth and river substrate data, and curves were constructed to show this relation. These findings would expand the number of possible tributaries suitable for Asian carp spawning and contribute to the understanding of how hydraulic and water-quality information can be used to screen additional rivers in the future.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2005

Trends in surface-water quality at selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations, in Michigan

To demonstrate the value of long-term, water-quality monitoring, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), initiated a study to evaluate potential trends in water-quality constituents for selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations in Michigan. The goal of this study is to assist the MDEQ in evaluating the effectiveness of water-pollution control efforts and the identification of water-quality concerns. The study included a total of nine NASQAN stations in Michigan. Approximately 28 constituents were analyzed for trend tests. Station selection was based on data availability, land-use characteristics, and station priority for the MDEQ Water Chemistry Monitoring Project. Trend analyses were completed using the uncensored Seasonal Kendall Test in the computer program Estimate Trend (ESTREND), a software program for the detection of trends in water-quality data. The parameters chosen for the trend test had (1) at least a 5-year period of record (2) about 5 percent of the observations censored at a single reporting limit, and (3) 40 percent of the values within the beginning one-fifth and ending one-fifth of the selected period. In this study, a negative trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent, which generally means an improvement in water quality; whereas a positive trend means an increase in concentration and possible degradation of water quality. The results of the study show an overall improvement in water quality at the Clinton River at Mount Clemens, Manistee River at Manistee, and Pigeon River near Caseville. The detected trend for these stations show decreases in concentrations of various constituents such as nitrogen compounds, conductance, sulfate, fecal coliform bacteria, and fecal streptococci bacteria. The negative trend may indicate an overall improvement in agricultural practices, municipal and industrial wastewater-treatment processes, and effective regulations. Phosphorus data for most of the study stations could not be analyzed because of the data limitations for trend tests. The only station with a significant negative trend in total phosphorus concentration is the Clinton River at Mount Clemens. However, scatter-plot analyses of phosphorus data indicate decreasing concentrations with time for most of the study stations. Positive trends in concentration of nitrogen compounds were detected at the Kalamazoo River near Saugatuck and Muskegon River near Bridgeton. Positive trends in both fecal coliform and total fecal coliform were detected at the Tahquamenon River near Paradise. Various different point and nonpoint sources could produce such positive trends, but most commonly the increase in concentrations of nitrogen compounds and fecal coliform bacteria are associated with agricultural practices and sewage-plant discharges. The constituent with the most numerous and geographically widespread significant trend is pH. The pH levels increased at six out of nine stations on all the major rivers in Michigan, with no negative trend at any station. The cause of pH increase is difficult to determine, as it could be related to a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural processes occurring simultaneously in the environment. Trends in concentration of major ions, such as calcium, sodium, magnesium, sulfate, fluoride, chloride, and potassium, were detected at eight out of nine stations. A negative trend was detected only in sulfate and fluoride concentrations; a positive trend was detected only in calcium concentration. The major ions with the most widespread significant trends are sodium and chloride; three positive and two negative trends were detected for sodium, and three negative and two positive trends were detected for chloride. The negative trends in chloride concentrations outnumbered the positive trends. This result indicates a slight improvement in surface-water quality because chloride as a point source in natural water comes from deicing salt, sewage effluents, industrial wastes, and oil fields. For other major ions, such as magnesium and potassium, both positive and negative trends were detected. These changes in trends indicate changes in surface-water quality caused by a variety of point and non-point sources throughout Michigan, as well as natural changes in the environment.

Michigan↗

USGS2016

Geology, hydrology, water quality, and potential for interbasin invasive-species spread by way of the groundwater pathway near Lemont, Illinois

Invasive species such as Asian carps have the potential to travel in the egg, larval, or fry stages from the Des Plaines River (DPR) to the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) by way of the network of secondary-permeability features in the dolomite aquifer between these water bodies. Such movement would circumvent the electric fish barrier on the canal and allow Asian carps to travel unimpeded into Lake Michigan. This potential pathway for the spread of Asian carps and other invasive species was evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey. The bed of the DPR appears to be in at least partial contact with the exposed bedrock in most of the area from about 1 mile west of Kingery Highway to Romeo Road (the study area). Areas of exposed bedrock are the most likely places for Asian carps to enter the groundwater system from the DPR. Water levels in the DPR typically are about 7–16 feet higher than those in the CSSC in most of the study area. This difference in water level provides the driving force for the potential spread of Asian carps from the DPR to the CSSC by way of groundwater. Groundwater flow (and potentially invasive-species movement) is through an interconnected network of permeable vertical and horizontal fractures within the Silurian dolomite bedrock. At least some of the fractures are associated with paleo-karst features. Several investigative techniques identified horizontal permeable fractures at about 546–552 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 within about 55 feet of the CSSC in the focus area between Lemont Road and Interstate 355. The elevation of the bottom of the CSSC in this area is about 551 feet, indicating that a direct conduit for flow of groundwater to the CSSC may be present. Wells further away from the CSSC in this area do not intercept fractures, so the fracture network may not be continuous between the DPR and the CSSC. These data are consistent with field observations of the secondary-permeability network along the CSSC walls, which indicate that the secondary-permeability features are completely filled with Pennsylvanian sediments within a few feet of the canal wall. Water-level data indicate the potential for flow from the DPR into the Silurian aquifer in the focus area, then from the aquifer to the CSSC. Water-level data also indicate that the fractures within the aquifer in the focus area are hydraulically well connected to the CSSC but not to the DPR, indicating that flow from the DPR to the groundwater system may not be substantial or rapid. Water-quality data in the CSSC and the DPR show similar values and trends and are affected by diel and longer term variations in climate and precipitation. However, the values and trends in water quality in the groundwater system tended to be substantially different from those in the DPR and the CSSC, indicating that the DPR and the CSSC do not appreciably recharge the groundwater system. Water-quality and flow data do indicate that groundwater discharges to the CSSC in part of the focus area. The absence of substantial hydraulic interaction between the groundwater and the DPR is supported by the absence of detectable concentrations of the dye tracer added to the DPR in groundwater in the focus area, which indicates that water from the DPR requires more than 2 weeks to move into the monitored parts of the groundwater system under approximately typical hydraulic conditions. The totality of the data indicates that there is minimal potential for the inter-basin spread of Asian carps by way of the groundwater pathway between Romeo Road and Stickney, Illinois.

Illinois↗

USGS2012

Parking lot runoff quality and treatment efficiencies of a hydrodynamic-settling device in Madison, Wisconsin, 2005-6

A hydrodynamic-settling device was installed in 2004 to treat stormwater runoff from a roof and parking lot located at the Water Utility Administration Building in Madison, Wis. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, the City of Madison, cities in the Waukesha Permit Group, Hydro International, Earth Tech, Inc., National Sanitation Foundation International, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, monitored the device from November 2005 through September 2006 to evaluate it as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Technology Verification Program. Twenty-three runoff events monitored for flow volume and water quality at the device's inlet and outlet were used to calculate the percentage of pollutant reduction for the device. The geometric mean concentrations of suspended sediment (SS), "adjusted" total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), dissolved phosphorus (DP), total recoverable zinc (TZn), and total recoverable copper (TCu) measured at the inlet were 107 mg/L (milligrams per liter), 92 mg/L, 0.17 mg/L, 0.05 mg/L, 38 μg/L (micrograms per liter), and 12 μg/L, respectively, and these concentrations are in the range of values observed in stormwater runoff from other parking lots in Wisconsin and Michigan. Efficiency of the settling device was calculated using the efficiency ratio and summation of loads (SOL) methods. Using the efficiency ratio method, the device reduced concentrations of SS, and DP, by 19, and 15, percent, respectively. Using the efficiency ratio method, the device increased "adjusted" TSS and TZn concentrations by 5 and 19, respectively. Bypass occurred for 3 of the 23 runoff events used in this assessment, and the bypass flow and water-quality concentrations were used to determine the efficiency of the bypass system. Concentrations of SS, "adjusted" TSS, and DP were reduced for the system by 18, 5, and 18, respectively; however, TZn increased by 5 percent. Some of the TSS concentrations were "adjusted" to add the particles that remained on the sieves during sample processing. The loads of SS, "adjusted" TSS, and DP were reduced using the SOL method for the settling device by 38, 9, and 19 percent, respectively, and TZn increased by 13 percent. For the bypass system, the loads of SS, "adjusted" TSS, and DP had percentage reductions of 39, 12, 22, respectively, however TZn increased by 4 percent. The SOL method produced percentage reductions for SS and 'adjusted" TSS that were twice those for the efficiency ratio method. Removing the two large runoff events on August 23 and 24, 2006, from the SOL calculation brought the reduction for SS down to 16 and increased "adjusted" TSS by 4 percent. The two large runoff events were anomalies in that the runoff volumes and dissolved solids concentrations were greatly increased by overflow from an adjacent recycling facility. The SOL method was used to determine the percentage of SS load reduction for six different particle sizes for both the settling device and bypass system. Essentially no load reduction was observed for particles less than 125 micrometers (μm) in diameter, and about a 90-percent reduction occurred for particle sizes greater than 250 μm in diameter. The large removal efficiencies for particle sizes greater than 250 μm in diameter were further supported by the fact that more than 80 percent of the particle sizes trapped in the sump were greater than 250 μm in diameter. These results support the claim by the manufacturer of achieving a large percentage load reduction for particle sizes greater than 250 μm in diameter.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1997

Fish communities of fixed sites in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages, Wisconsin and Michigan, 1993-95

Fish communities were surveyed at 20 wadable stream sites during 1993-95 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Water- Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program's assessment of the Western Lake Michigan Drainages. Part of the NAWQA design is to incorporate ecological data into an overall environmental assessment. Collection of fish-community data was part of this ecological assessment. The Western Lake Michigan Drainages study area is located in eastern Wisconsin and parts of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. To isolate the effects of individual factors on stream quality, the study area was subdivided into 28 environmental settings, or relatively homogeneous units (RHUs), on the basis of land use/land cover, texture of surficial deposits, and bedrock geology. A fixed monitoring site was established on a wadable stream within 8 of these RHUs to determine the status and trends of water quality in a representative stream. Water-quality characteristics, ecological- community data, and stream-habitat factors were measured at these sites during 1993- 95. Fish communities were sampled at the 8 wadable fixed sites once a year during 1993-95. At three of these sites, multiple-reach samples were collected in 1994 to determine within-site variation. Fish communities also were sampled at an additional 12 sites, 11 in 1993 and one in 1995, within the 6 largest RHUs. The sites, 1-3 per each of the 6 RHUs, were located on streams with drainage basins of similar size as the fixed sites within the same RHUs. A total of 44 fish species from 12 families were collected at the 20 sites. The family with the most species represented were the minnows. The number of species per site ranged from one at a small urban site (Lincoln Creek) in 1995 to 21 at an agricultural site (North Branch Milwaukee River) in 1995. The number of individuals collected in one sampling pass ranged from 21 at a stream in the forested northwest part of the study area (Peshekee River) in 1995 to 498 at an agricultural site (East River) in 1995. White sucker (Catostomus commersoni) were collected at 17 sites, the most of any species. Species that are indicative of a coldwater environment were collected at 12 sites. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) of multiple-reach and multiple-year data indicated that species composition at each of these sites were fairly consistent between reaches and years. Thus, for simplicity, most analyses were done using 1993 data only. Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) scores on 1993 data ranged from very poor at a channelized urban site to excellent at 3 sites; 2 in primarily agricultural areas and 1 in a forested area. Seven sites each scored good or fair, and two sites scored poor. Sites with multiple-year or multiple-reach data did not vary significantly within the error factor of the IBI. DCA of fish-community data from 19 sites indicated that coldwater sites were tightly grouped, whereas warmwater sites showed a larger gradient. This was expected, given the potential for greater diversity among warmwater sites. Fixed sites were shown to be representative of the study area as a whole, while specific fish communities could not be attributed to particular RHUs. Cluster analysis revealed two major groups of sites and two outlier sites. The two groups represented coldwater and warmwater streams, while the outlier sites were the urban site and a species- rich site with high biotic integrity that drains primarily agricultural land. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) revealed that soil credibility was a significant predictor of species composition. Though not statistically significant, land use, soil permeability, and bedrock permeability also were indicated as predictors of fish-species composition by CCA.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota↗