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Regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin in support of Great Lakes Basin water availability and use studies

A regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and surrounding areas has been developed in support of the Great Lakes Basin Pilot project under the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Availability and Use Program. The transient 2-million-cell model incorporates multiple aquifers and pumping centers that create water-level drawdown that extends into deep saline waters. The 20-layer model simulates the exchange between a dense surface-water network and heterogeneous glacial deposits overlying stratified bedrock of the Wisconsin/Kankakee Arches and Michigan Basin in the Lower and Upper Peninsulas of Michigan; eastern Wisconsin; northern Indiana; and northeastern Illinois. The model is used to quantify changes in the groundwater system in response to pumping and variations in recharge from 1864 to 2005. Model results quantify the sources of water to major pumping centers, illustrate the dynamics of the groundwater system, and yield measures of water availability useful for water-resources management in the region. This report is a complete description of the methods and datasets used to develop the regional model, the underlying conceptual model, and model inputs, including specified values of material properties and the assignment of external and internal boundary conditions. The report also documents the application of the SEAWAT-2000 program for variable-density flow; it details the approach, advanced methods, and results associated with calibration through nonlinear regression using the PEST program; presents the water-level, drawdown, and groundwater flows for various geographic subregions and aquifer systems; and provides analyses of the effects of pumping from shallow and deep wells on sources of water to wells, the migration of groundwater divides, and direct and indirect groundwater discharge to Lake Michigan. The report considers the role of unconfined conditions at the regional scale as well as the influence of salinity on groundwater flow. Lastly, it describes several categories of limitations and discusses ways of extending the regional model to address issues at the local scale. Results of the simulations portray a regional groundwater-flow system that, over time, has largely maintained its natural predevelopment configuration but that locally has been strongly affected by well withdrawals. The quantity of rainfall in the Lake Michigan Basin and adjacent areas supports a dense surface-water network and recharge rates consistent with generally shallow water tables and predominantly shallow groundwater flow. At the regional scale, pumping has not caused major modifications of the shallow flow system, but it has resulted in decreases in base flow to streams and in direct discharge to Lake Michigan (about 2 percent of the groundwater discharged and about 0.5 cubic foot per second per mile of shoreline). On the other hand, well withdrawals have caused major reversals in regional flow patterns around pumping centers in deep, confined aquifers - most noticeably in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system on the west side of Lake Michigan near the cities of Green Bay and Milwaukee in eastern Wisconsin, and around Chicago in northeastern Illinois, as well as in some shallow bedrock aquifers (for example, in the Marshall aquifer near Lansing, Mich.). The reversals in flow have been accompanied by large drawdowns with consequent local decrease in storage. On the west side of Lake Michigan, groundwater withdrawals have caused appreciable migration of the deep groundwater divides. Before the advent of pumping, the deep Lake Michigan groundwater-basin boundaries extended west of the Lake Michigan surface-water basin boundary, in some places by tens of miles. Over time, the pumping centers have replaced Lake Michigan as the regional sink for the deep flow system. The regional model is intended to support the framework pilot study of water availability and use for the Great Lakes Basin (Reeves, in press).

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Integrated synoptic surveys of the hydrodynamics and water-quality distributions in two Lake Michigan rivermouth mixing zones using an autonomous underwater vehicle and a manned boat

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Monitoring Network for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries, launched a pilot project in 2010 to determine the value of integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouths using autonomous underwater vehicle technology in response to a call for rivermouth research, which includes study domains that envelop both the fluvial and lacustrine boundaries of the rivermouth mixing zone. The pilot project was implemented at two Lake Michigan rivermouths with largely different scales, hydrodynamics, and settings, but employing primarily the same survey techniques and methods. The Milwaukee River Estuary Area of Concern (AOC) survey included measurements in the lower 2 to 3 miles of the Milwaukee, Menomonee, and Kinnickinnic Rivers and inner and outer Milwaukee Harbor. This estuary is situated in downtown Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and is the most populated basin that flows directly into Lake Michigan. In contrast, the Manitowoc rivermouth has a relatively small harbor separating the rivermouth from Lake Michigan, and the Manitowoc River Watershed is primarily agricultural. Both the Milwaukee and Manitowoc rivermouths are unregulated and allow free exchange of water with Lake Michigan. This pilot study of the Milwaukee River Estuary and Manitowoc rivermouth using an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) paired with a manned survey boat resulted in high spatial and temporal resolution datasets of basic water-quality parameter distributions and hydrodynamics. The AUV performed well in these environments and was found primarily well-suited for harbor and nearshore surveys of three-dimensional water-quality distributions. Both case studies revealed that the use of a manned boat equipped with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and multiparameter sonde (and an optional flow-through water-quality sampling system) was the best option for riverine surveys. To ensure that the most accurate and highest resolution velocity data were collected concurrently with the AUV surveys, the pilot study used a manned boat equipped with an ADCP. Combining the AUV and manned boat datasets resulted in datasets that are essentially continuous from the fluvial through the lacustrine zones of a rivermouth. Whereas the pilot studies were completed during low flows on the tributaries, completion of surveys at higher flows using the same techniques is possible, but the use of the AUV would be limited to areas with relatively low velocities (less than 2 feet per second) such as the harbors and nearshore zones of Lake Michigan. Overall, this pilot study aimed at evaluation of AUV technology for integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouth mixing zones was successful, and the techniques and methods employed in this pilot study should be transferrable to other sites with similar success. The use of the AUV provided significant time savings compared to traditional sampling techniques. For example, the survey of outer Milwaukee Harbor using the AUV required less than 7 hours for approximately 600 profiles compared to the 150 hours it would have taken using traditional methods in a manned boat (a 95 percent reduction in man-hours). The integrated datasets resulting from the AUV and manned survey boat are of high value and present a picture of the mixing and hydrodynamics of these highly dynamic, highly variable rivermouth mixing zones from the relatively well-mixed fluvial environment through the rivermouth to the stratified lacustrine receiving body of Lake Michigan. Such datasets not only allow researchers to understand more about the physical processes occurring in these rivermouths, but they provide high spatial resolution data required for interpretation of relations between disparate point samples and calibration and validation of numerical models.

Wisconsin↗

Ground-water quality and vulnerability to contamination in selected agricultural areas of southeastern Michigan, northwestern Ohio, and northeastern Indiana

Ground-water quality was assessed in the northeastern part of the Corn Belt, where tile-drained row crops are underlain by fractured glacial till. Data were collected from 30 shallow monitor wells and 18 co-located domestic wells as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water- Quality Assessment in the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin. Pesticides or pesticide degradates were detected in 41 percent of the monitor wells and 6 percent of the domestic wells. The pesticides detected closely correspond to those most heavily applied—herbicides used on corn and soybeans. Pesticide degradates were detected three times more frequently, and at higher concentrations, than were parent compounds. No pesticide concentration exceeded a USEPA Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL), but MCL’s have not been established for 9 of the 11 compounds detected. Thirty-seven percent of monitor-well samples had nitrate concentrations indicative of human influences such as fertilizer, manure or septic systems. Nitrate was the only chemical constituent detected at a concentration greater than an MCL. The MCL was exceeded in 7 percent of samples from monitor wells which were too shallow to be used as a source of drinking water. Pesticide and nitrate concentrations in the study area are low relative to other agricultural areas of the Nation. Several authors have suggested that ground water in parts of the Upper Midwest is minimally contaminated because it is protected by the surficial glacial till or tile drains. These ideas are examined in light of the relations between concentration, well depth, and groundwater age in the study area. Most of the shallow ground water is hydraulically connected to the land surface, based on the observations that 83 percent of waters from monitor wells were recharged after 1953, and 57 percent contained a pesticide or an elevated nitrate concentration. Fractures or sand-and-gravel stringers within the till are the probable pathways. In some areas, deeper parts of the groundwater- flow system are also hydraulically connected to the land surface. Almost half the waters from wells 50 to 100 feet deep were recharged after 1953. Anthropogenic constituents were detected in samples from three domestic wells 60 to 121 feet deep, in areas where the till is relatively coarse-grained. The hydrogeologic system has several geochemical characteristics conducive to transformations or sorption of nitrate or pesticides: (1) the till is clay-rich, has a high organic-carbon content, and contains an abundance of pyrite-rich shale fragments, (2) the ground water has low dissolved- oxygen concentrations, and (3) iron and manganese oxides and oxyhyroxides line the faces of fractures in the unsaturated zone. Although the aquifer system appears be protected from contamination in some areas, the fact that the surficial till is heterogeneous and of variable thickness suggests that the protection is not uniform. The protection can be breached by fractures or sand-and-gravel stringers, which are apparent in core samples but not noted on domestic-well logs.

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗

Predicting lake trophic state by relating Secchi-disk transparency measurements to Landsat-satellite imagery for Michigan inland lakes, 2003-05 and 2007-08

Inland lakes are an important economic and environmental resource for Michigan. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Michigan Department of Natural Resources and Environment have been cooperatively monitoring the quality of selected lakes in Michigan through the Lake Water Quality Assessment program. Sampling for this program began in 2001; by 2010, 730 of Michigan’s 11,000 inland lakes are expected to have been sampled once. Volunteers coordinated by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources and Environment began sampling lakes in 1974 and continue to sample (in 2010) approximately 250 inland lakes each year through the Michigan Cooperative Lakes Monitoring Program. Despite these sampling efforts, it still is impossible to physically collect measurements for all Michigan inland lakes; however, Landsat-satellite imagery has been used successfully in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and elsewhere to predict the trophic state of unsampled inland lakes greater than 20 acres by producing regression equations relating in-place Secchi-disk measurements to Landsat bands. This study tested three alternatives to methods previously used in Michigan to improve results for predicted statewide Trophic State Index (TSI) computed from Secchi-disk transparency (TSI (SDT)). The alternative methods were used on 14 Landsat-satellite scenes with statewide TSI (SDT) for two time periods (2003– 05 and 2007–08). Specifically, the methods were (1) satellitedata processing techniques to remove areas affected by clouds, cloud shadows, haze, shoreline, and dense vegetation for inland lakes greater than 20 acres in Michigan; (2) comparison of the previous method for producing a single open-water predicted TSI (SDT) value (which was based on an area of interest (AOI) and lake-average approach) to an alternative Gethist method for identifying open-water areas in inland lakes (which follows the initial satellite-data processing and targets the darkest pixels, representing the deepest water, before regression equations are created); and (3) checking to see whether the predicted TSI (SDT) values compared well between two regression equations, one previously used in Michigan and an alternative equation from the hydrologic literature. The combination of improved satellite-data processing techniques and the Gethist method to identify open-water areas in inland lakes during 2003–05 and 2007–08 provided a stronger relation and statistical significance between predicted TSI (SDT) and measured TSI than did the AOI lake-average method; differences in results for the two methods were significant at the 99-percent confidence level. With regard to the comparison of the regression equations, there were no statistically significant differences at the 95-percent confidence level between results from the two equations. The previously used equation, in combination with the Gethist method, yielded coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values of 0.71 and 0.77 for the periods 2003–05 and 2007–08, respectively. The alternative equation, in combination with the Gethist method, yielded R 2 values of 0.74 and 0.75 for 2003–05 and 2007–08, respectively. Predicted TSI (SDT) and measured TSI (SDT) values for lakes used in the regression equations compared well, with R 2 values of 0.95 and 0.96 for predicted TSI (SDT) for 2003–05 and 2007–08, respectively. The R 2 values for statewide predicted TSI (SDT) for all inland lakes with available open-water areas for 2003–05 and 2007–08 were 0.91 and 0.93, respectively. Although the two equations predicted similar trophic-state classes, the alternative equation is planned to be used for future prediction of TSI (SDT) values for Michigan inland lakes, to promote consistency in comparing predicted values between States and for potential use in trend analysis.

Michigan↗

Stream habitat characteristics of fixed sites in the western Lake Michigan drainages, Wisconsin and Michigan, 1993-95

Habitat characteristics of 11 fixed sites in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages were examined by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1993 through 1995 as part of the ecological assessment of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Evaluation of habitat consisted of more than 75 measurements at three spatial levels: drainage basin, stream segment between major tributaries (length from 1 to 14 kilometers), and stream reach (approximately 150 meters). The 11 fixed sites consisted of 8 "indicator" sites with drainage basins that differ in bedrock type, surficial deposits, and land use; and 3 "integrator" sites with drainage basins that contain a mixture of bedrock type, surficial deposits, and land use. Spatial and temporal variations in habitat characteristics are described and compared. Comparisons are limited to indicator sites except for comparisons amongbasin characteristics, which include all fixed sites. Two habitat classification schemes used in Wisconsin and Michigan were used to rank the quality of habitat in indicator streams. Reach-level data were collected at two additional reaches at three of the indicator sites to assess the representativeness of the reach for overall stream conditions. Although the number of sites is small, statistical analyses indicate that spatial distribution of several characteristics can be related to land use, geology, topography, and width of the riparian zone. Land use and geology, in combination, appeared to be important factors in controlling flood magnitudes. Annual mean flow was correlated with basin shape and drainage density and low flow was correlated with permeability of soils in the basin. At the reach level, a wide variety of characteristics were observed at the eight indicator sites, with many of the characteristics significantly different between sites. Spatial differences in some reach characteristics can be attributed to the percentage of agriculture in the drainage basin, type of surficial deposits, and width of the riparian zone. Temporal variability in width, depth, and velocity can be attributed to variable flow conditions; whereas temporal variability in streambank measurements are attributed to problematic identification of the boundary between the flood plain and streambanks. Data from multiple-reach sites indicate that the primary reach adequately represented the variability found within the stream segment for depth, streambank stability index, and canopy angle. However, velocity, dominant substrate type, embeddedness, streambank height, streambank angle, and streambank vegetative stability differed among the multiple reaches at one or more of the three sites. Correlation analyses of habitat characteristics with median concentrations of four nutrients, pH, and specific conductance indicates that dissolved nitrate plus nitrite concentrations are related to percentage of agriculture in the basin and fine-grained sediment deposition in the reach. Geology and land use appear to be major influences on pH, but their influence on specific conductance, although expected, was not confirmed in this study. Habitat evaluation scores at the eight indicator sites ranged from poor to good. Scores were correlated to the percentage of agricultural or urban land in the drainage basins, width of the riparian zone, and streambank stability index. Results from this study illustrate the need for collection of habitat data at multiple scales along with water-chemistry data for determining major influences on distribution of aquatic communities. These results also indicate the importance of collecting land use, geological, and geomorphic information at the drainage-basin level to adequately describe how natural and human factors influence local aquatic habitat conditions.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Comparison of streamflow and water-quality data collection techniques for the Saginaw River, Michigan

In 2009, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey developed a plan to compare the effect of various streamgaging and water-quality collection techniques on streamflow and stream water-quality data for the Saginaw River, Michigan. The Saginaw River is the primary contributor of surface runoff to Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron, draining approximately 70 percent of the Saginaw Bay watershed. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has listed the Saginaw Bay system as an "Area of Concern" due to many factors, including excessive sediment and nutrient concentrations in the water. Current efforts to estimate loading of sediment and nutrients to Saginaw Bay utilize water-quality samples collected using a surface-grab technique and flow data that are uncertain during specific conditions. Comparisons of current flow and water-quality sampling techniques to alternative techniques were assessed between April 2009 and September 2009 at two locations in the Saginaw River. Streamflow estimated using acoustic Doppler current profiling technology was compared to a traditional stage-discharge technique. Complex conditions resulting from the influence of Saginaw Bay on the Saginaw River were able to be captured using the acoustic technology, while the traditional stage-discharge technique failed to quantify these effects. Water-quality samples were collected at two locations and on eight different dates, utilizing both surface-grab and depth-integrating multiple-vertical techniques. Sixteen paired samples were collected and analyzed for suspended sediment, turbidity, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, orthophosphate, nitrite, nitrate, and ammonia. Results indicate that concentrations of constituents associated with suspended material, such as suspended sediment, turbidity, and total phosphorus, are underestimated when samples are collected using the surface-grab technique. The median magnitude of the relative percent difference in concentration based on sampling technique was 37 percent for suspended sediment, 26 percent for turbidity, and 9.7 percent for total phosphorus samples collected at both. Acoustic techniques were also used to assist in the determination of the effectiveness of using acoustic-backscatter information for estimating the suspended-sediment concentration of the river water. Backscatter data was collected by use of an acoustic Doppler current profiler, and a Van Dorn manual sampler was simultaneously used to collect discrete water samples at 10 depths (3.5, 7.5, 11, 14, 15.5, 17.5, 19.5, 20.5, 22, and 24.5 ft below the water surface) along two vertical profiles near the center of the Saginaw River near Bay City. The Van Dorn samples were analyzed for suspended-sediment concentrations, and these data were then used to develop a relationship between acoustic-backscatter data. Acoustic-backscatter data was strongly correlated to sediment concentrations and, by using a linear regression, was able to explain 89 percent of the variability. Although this regression technique showed promise for using acoustic backscatter to estimate suspended-sediment concentration, attempts to compare suspended-sediment concentrations to the acoustic signal-to-noise ratio estimates, recorded at the fixed acoustic streamflow-gaging station near Bay City (04157061), resulted in a poor correlation.

Michigan↗

Analysis of regional rainfall-runoff parameters for the Lake Michigan Diversion hydrological modeling

The Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting (LMDA) system has been developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District (USACE-Chicago) and the State of Illinois as a part of the interstate Great Lakes water regulatory program. The diverted Lake Michigan watershed is a 673-square-mile watershed that is comprised of the Chicago River and Calumet River watersheds. They originally drained into Lake Michigan, but now flow to the Mississippi River watershed via three canals constructed in the Chicago area in the early twentieth century. Approximately 393 square miles of the diverted watershed is ungaged, and the runoff from the ungaged portion of the diverted watershed has been estimated by the USACE-Chicago using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) program. The accuracy of simulated runoff depends on the accuracy of the parameter set used in the HSPF program. Nine parameter sets comprised of the North Branch, Little Calumet, Des Plaines, Hickory Creek, CSSC, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008 have been developed at different time periods and used by the USACE-Chicago. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey and the USACE-Chicago collaboratively analyzed the parameter sets using nine gaged watersheds in or adjacent to the diverted watershed to assess the predictive accuracies of selected parameter sets. Six of the parameter sets, comprising North Branch, Hickory Creek, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008, were applied to the nine gaged watersheds for evaluating their simulation accuracy from water years 1996 to 2011. The nine gaged watersheds were modeled by using the three LMDA land-cover types (grass, forest, and hydraulically connected imperviousness) based on the 2006 National Land Cover Database, and the latest meteorological and precipitation data consistent with the current (2014) LMDA modeling framework. Results indicate that the North Branch and Hickory Creek parameter sets, which belong to the original calibration group, attained an overall “satisfactory” rating on monthly runoff volumes based on the three performance statistics selected, but the annual and over-the-period runoff volumes were generally underestimated. Parameter sets CTE and 2008 attained a similar satisfactory rating on monthly runoff volumes but the annual and over-the-period runoff volumes were overestimated in general. Although the percent bias was improved, the CTE and 2008 parameter sets also had increased residuals in monthly runoff volumes and decreased quality of the model fit to the measured streamflows relative to the North Branch and Hickory Creek parameter sets. The NIPC and 1999 parameter sets, on the other hand, had larger percent bias and residuals in monthly runoff volumes, and underestimated the annual and over-the-period runoff volumes. Recalibration of the HSPF parameters to the updated inputs and land covers was completed on two representative watershed models selected from the nine by using a manual method (HSPEXP) and an automatic method (PEST). The objective of the recalibration was to develop a regional parameter set that improves the accuracy in runoff volume prediction for the nine study watersheds. Knowledge about flow and watershed characteristics plays a vital role for validating the calibration in both manual and automatic methods. The best performing parameter set was determined by the automatic calibration method on a two-watershed model. Applying this newly determined parameter set to the nine watersheds for runoff volume simulation resulted in “very good” ratings in five watersheds, an improvement as compared to “very good” ratings achieved for three watersheds by the North Branch parameter set.

Illinois, Indiana↗

Areal distribution and concentration of contaminants of concern in surficial streambed and lakebed sediments, Lake St. Clair and tributaries, Michigan, 1990-2003

As part of the Lake St. Clair Regional Monitoring Project, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated data collected from surficial streambed and lakebed sediments in the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair drainages. This study incorporates data collected from 1990 through 2003 and focuses primarily on the U.S. part of the Lake St. Clair Basin, including Lake St. Clair, the St. Clair River, and tributaries to Lake St. Clair. Comparable data from the Canadian part of the study area are included where available. The data are compiled into 4 chemical classes and consist of 21 compounds. The data are compared to effects-based sediment-quality guidelines, where the Threshold Effect Level and Lowest Effect Level represent concentrations below which adverse effects on biota are not expected and the Probable Effect Level and Severe Effect Level represent concentrations above which adverse effects on biota are expected to be frequent. Maps in the report show the spatial distribution of the sampling locations and illustrate the concentrations relative to the selected sediment-quality guidelines. These maps indicate that sediment samples from certain areas routinely had contaminant concentrations greater than the Threshold Effect Concentration or Lowest Effect Level. These locations are the upper reach of the St. Clair River, the main stem and mouth of the Clinton River, Big Beaver Creek, Red Run, and Paint Creek. Maps also indicated areas that routinely contained sediment contaminant concentrations that were greater than the Probable Effect Concentration or Severe Effect Level. These locations include the upper reach of the St. Clair River, the main stem and mouth of the Clinton River, Red Run, within direct tributaries along Lake St. Clair and in marinas within the lake, and within the Clinton River headwaters in Oakland County. Although most samples collected within Lake St. Clair were from sites adjacent to the mouths of its tributaries, samples analyzed for trace-element concentrations were collected throughout the lake. The distribution of trace-element concentrations corresponded well with the results of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of flow patterns from the Clinton River into Lake St. Clair. The model was developed independent from the bed sediment analysis described in this report; yet it showed a zone of deposition for outflow from the Clinton River into Lake St. Clair that corresponded well with the spatial distribution of trace-element concentrations. This zone runs along the western shoreline of Lake St. Clair from L'Anse Creuse Bay to St. Clair Shores, Michigan and is reflected in the samples analyzed for mercury and cadmium. Statistical summaries of the concentration data are presented for most contaminants, and selected statistics are compared to effects-based sediment-quality guidelines. Summaries were not computed for dieldrin, chlordane, hexachlorocyclohexane, lindane, and mirex because insufficient data are available for these contaminants. A statistical comparison showed that the median concentration for hexachlorobenzene, anthracene, benz[ a ]anthracene, chrysene, and pyrene are greater than the Threshold Effect Concentration or Lowest Effect Level. Probable Effect Concentration Quotients provide a mechanism for comparing the concentrations of contaminant mixtures against effects-based biota data. Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were calculated for individual samples and compared to effects-based toxicity ranges. The toxicity-range categories used in this study were nontoxic (quotients < 0.5) and toxic (quotients > 0.5). Of the 546 individual samples for which Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were calculated, 469 (86 percent) were categorized as being nontoxic and 77 (14 percent) were categorized as being toxic. Bed-sediment samples with toxic Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were collected from Paint Creek, Galloway Creek, the main stem of the Clinton River, Big Beaver Creek, Red Run, Clinton River towards the mouth, Lake St. Clair along the western shore, and the St. Clair River near Sarnia.

Michigan↗

Hydraulic and water-quality data collection for the investigation of Great Lakes tributaries for Asian carp spawning and egg-transport suitability

If the invasive Asian carps (bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) migrate to the Great Lakes, in spite of the efforts to stop their advancement, these species will require the fast-flowing water of the Great Lakes tributaries for spawning and recruitment in order to establish a growing population. Two Lake Michigan tributaries (the Milwaukee and St. Joseph Rivers) and two Lake Erie tributaries (the Maumee and Sandusky Rivers) were investigated to determine if these tributaries possess the hydraulic and water-quality characteristics to allow successful spawning of Asian carps. To examine this issue, standard U.S. Geological Survey sampling protocols and instrumentation for discharge and water-quality measurements were used, together with differential global positioning system data for georeferencing. Non-standard data-processing techniques, combined with detailed laboratory analysis of Asian carp egg characteristics, allowed an assessment of the transport capabilities of each of these four tributaries. This assessment is based solely on analysis of observed data and did not utilize the collected data for detailed transport modeling. All four tributaries exhibited potential settling zones for Asian carp eggs both within the estuaries and river mouths and within the lower 100 kilometers (km) of the river. Dams played a leading role in defining these settling zones, with the exception of dams on the Sandusky River. The impoundments created by many of the larger dams on these rivers acted to sufficiently decelerate the flows and allowed the shear velocity to drop below the settling velocity for Asian carp eggs, which would allow the eggs to fall out of suspension and settle on the bottom where it is thought the eggs would perish. While three rivers exhibited these settling zones upstream of the larger dams, not all settling zones are likely to have such effects on egg transport. The Milwaukee River exhibited only a short settling zone upstream of the Grafton Dam, whereas the St. Joseph and Maumee Rivers both had extensive settling zones (>5 km) behind major dams. These longer settling zones are likely to capture more eggs than shorter settling reaches. All four rivers exhibited settling zones at their river mouths, with the Lake Erie tributaries having much larger settling zones extending more than 10 km up the tributaries. While hydraulic data from all four rivers indicated settling of eggs is possible in some locations, all four rivers also exhibited sufficient temperatures, water-quality characteristics, turbulence, and transport times outside of settling zones for successful suspension and development of Asian carp eggs to the hatching stage before the threat of settlement. These observed data indicate that these four Great Lakes tributaries have sufficient hydraulic and water-quality characteristics to support successful spawning and recruitment of Asian carps. The data indicate that with the right temperature and flow conditions, river reaches as short as 25 km may allow Asian carp eggs sufficient time to develop to hatching. Additionally, examining the relation between critical shear velocity and mean velocity, egg settling appears to take place at mean velocities in the range of 15&ndash;25 centimeters per second, a much lower value than is generally cited in the literature. A first-order estimate of the minimum transport velocity for Asian carp eggs in a river can be obtained by using mean flow depth and river substrate data, and curves were constructed to show this relation. These findings would expand the number of possible tributaries suitable for Asian carp spawning and contribute to the understanding of how hydraulic and water-quality information can be used to screen additional rivers in the future.

Great Lakes↗

Trends in surface-water quality at selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations, in Michigan

To demonstrate the value of long-term, water-quality monitoring, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), initiated a study to evaluate potential trends in water-quality constituents for selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations in Michigan. The goal of this study is to assist the MDEQ in evaluating the effectiveness of water-pollution control efforts and the identification of water-quality concerns. The study included a total of nine NASQAN stations in Michigan. Approximately 28 constituents were analyzed for trend tests. Station selection was based on data availability, land-use characteristics, and station priority for the MDEQ Water Chemistry Monitoring Project. Trend analyses were completed using the uncensored Seasonal Kendall Test in the computer program Estimate Trend (ESTREND), a software program for the detection of trends in water-quality data. The parameters chosen for the trend test had (1) at least a 5-year period of record (2) about 5 percent of the observations censored at a single reporting limit, and (3) 40 percent of the values within the beginning one-fifth and ending one-fifth of the selected period. In this study, a negative trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent, which generally means an improvement in water quality; whereas a positive trend means an increase in concentration and possible degradation of water quality. The results of the study show an overall improvement in water quality at the Clinton River at Mount Clemens, Manistee River at Manistee, and Pigeon River near Caseville. The detected trend for these stations show decreases in concentrations of various constituents such as nitrogen compounds, conductance, sulfate, fecal coliform bacteria, and fecal streptococci bacteria. The negative trend may indicate an overall improvement in agricultural practices, municipal and industrial wastewater-treatment processes, and effective regulations. Phosphorus data for most of the study stations could not be analyzed because of the data limitations for trend tests. The only station with a significant negative trend in total phosphorus concentration is the Clinton River at Mount Clemens. However, scatter-plot analyses of phosphorus data indicate decreasing concentrations with time for most of the study stations. Positive trends in concentration of nitrogen compounds were detected at the Kalamazoo River near Saugatuck and Muskegon River near Bridgeton. Positive trends in both fecal coliform and total fecal coliform were detected at the Tahquamenon River near Paradise. Various different point and nonpoint sources could produce such positive trends, but most commonly the increase in concentrations of nitrogen compounds and fecal coliform bacteria are associated with agricultural practices and sewage-plant discharges. The constituent with the most numerous and geographically widespread significant trend is pH. The pH levels increased at six out of nine stations on all the major rivers in Michigan, with no negative trend at any station. The cause of pH increase is difficult to determine, as it could be related to a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural processes occurring simultaneously in the environment. Trends in concentration of major ions, such as calcium, sodium, magnesium, sulfate, fluoride, chloride, and potassium, were detected at eight out of nine stations. A negative trend was detected only in sulfate and fluoride concentrations; a positive trend was detected only in calcium concentration. The major ions with the most widespread significant trends are sodium and chloride; three positive and two negative trends were detected for sodium, and three negative and two positive trends were detected for chloride. The negative trends in chloride concentrations outnumbered the positive trends. This result indicates a slight improvement in surface-water quality because chloride as a point source in natural water comes from deicing salt, sewage effluents, industrial wastes, and oil fields. For other major ions, such as magnesium and potassium, both positive and negative trends were detected. These changes in trends indicate changes in surface-water quality caused by a variety of point and non-point sources throughout Michigan, as well as natural changes in the environment.

Michigan↗

Geology, hydrology, water quality, and potential for interbasin invasive-species spread by way of the groundwater pathway near Lemont, Illinois

Invasive species such as Asian carps have the potential to travel in the egg, larval, or fry stages from the Des Plaines River (DPR) to the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) by way of the network of secondary-permeability features in the dolomite aquifer between these water bodies. Such movement would circumvent the electric fish barrier on the canal and allow Asian carps to travel unimpeded into Lake Michigan. This potential pathway for the spread of Asian carps and other invasive species was evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey. The bed of the DPR appears to be in at least partial contact with the exposed bedrock in most of the area from about 1 mile west of Kingery Highway to Romeo Road (the study area). Areas of exposed bedrock are the most likely places for Asian carps to enter the groundwater system from the DPR. Water levels in the DPR typically are about 7–16 feet higher than those in the CSSC in most of the study area. This difference in water level provides the driving force for the potential spread of Asian carps from the DPR to the CSSC by way of groundwater. Groundwater flow (and potentially invasive-species movement) is through an interconnected network of permeable vertical and horizontal fractures within the Silurian dolomite bedrock. At least some of the fractures are associated with paleo-karst features. Several investigative techniques identified horizontal permeable fractures at about 546–552 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 within about 55 feet of the CSSC in the focus area between Lemont Road and Interstate 355. The elevation of the bottom of the CSSC in this area is about 551 feet, indicating that a direct conduit for flow of groundwater to the CSSC may be present. Wells further away from the CSSC in this area do not intercept fractures, so the fracture network may not be continuous between the DPR and the CSSC. These data are consistent with field observations of the secondary-permeability network along the CSSC walls, which indicate that the secondary-permeability features are completely filled with Pennsylvanian sediments within a few feet of the canal wall. Water-level data indicate the potential for flow from the DPR into the Silurian aquifer in the focus area, then from the aquifer to the CSSC. Water-level data also indicate that the fractures within the aquifer in the focus area are hydraulically well connected to the CSSC but not to the DPR, indicating that flow from the DPR to the groundwater system may not be substantial or rapid. Water-quality data in the CSSC and the DPR show similar values and trends and are affected by diel and longer term variations in climate and precipitation. However, the values and trends in water quality in the groundwater system tended to be substantially different from those in the DPR and the CSSC, indicating that the DPR and the CSSC do not appreciably recharge the groundwater system. Water-quality and flow data do indicate that groundwater discharges to the CSSC in part of the focus area. The absence of substantial hydraulic interaction between the groundwater and the DPR is supported by the absence of detectable concentrations of the dye tracer added to the DPR in groundwater in the focus area, which indicates that water from the DPR requires more than 2 weeks to move into the monitored parts of the groundwater system under approximately typical hydraulic conditions. The totality of the data indicates that there is minimal potential for the inter-basin spread of Asian carps by way of the groundwater pathway between Romeo Road and Stickney, Illinois.

Illinois↗

Parking lot runoff quality and treatment efficiencies of a hydrodynamic-settling device in Madison, Wisconsin, 2005-6

A hydrodynamic-settling device was installed in 2004 to treat stormwater runoff from a roof and parking lot located at the Water Utility Administration Building in Madison, Wis. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, the City of Madison, cities in the Waukesha Permit Group, Hydro International, Earth Tech, Inc., National Sanitation Foundation International, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, monitored the device from November 2005 through September 2006 to evaluate it as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Technology Verification Program. Twenty-three runoff events monitored for flow volume and water quality at the device's inlet and outlet were used to calculate the percentage of pollutant reduction for the device. The geometric mean concentrations of suspended sediment (SS), "adjusted" total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), dissolved phosphorus (DP), total recoverable zinc (TZn), and total recoverable copper (TCu) measured at the inlet were 107 mg/L (milligrams per liter), 92 mg/L, 0.17 mg/L, 0.05 mg/L, 38 &mu;g/L (micrograms per liter), and 12 &mu;g/L, respectively, and these concentrations are in the range of values observed in stormwater runoff from other parking lots in Wisconsin and Michigan. Efficiency of the settling device was calculated using the efficiency ratio and summation of loads (SOL) methods. Using the efficiency ratio method, the device reduced concentrations of SS, and DP, by 19, and 15, percent, respectively. Using the efficiency ratio method, the device increased "adjusted" TSS and TZn concentrations by 5 and 19, respectively. Bypass occurred for 3 of the 23 runoff events used in this assessment, and the bypass flow and water-quality concentrations were used to determine the efficiency of the bypass system. Concentrations of SS, "adjusted" TSS, and DP were reduced for the system by 18, 5, and 18, respectively; however, TZn increased by 5 percent. Some of the TSS concentrations were "adjusted" to add the particles that remained on the sieves during sample processing. The loads of SS, "adjusted" TSS, and DP were reduced using the SOL method for the settling device by 38, 9, and 19 percent, respectively, and TZn increased by 13 percent. For the bypass system, the loads of SS, "adjusted" TSS, and DP had percentage reductions of 39, 12, 22, respectively, however TZn increased by 4 percent. The SOL method produced percentage reductions for SS and 'adjusted" TSS that were twice those for the efficiency ratio method. Removing the two large runoff events on August 23 and 24, 2006, from the SOL calculation brought the reduction for SS down to 16 and increased "adjusted" TSS by 4 percent. The two large runoff events were anomalies in that the runoff volumes and dissolved solids concentrations were greatly increased by overflow from an adjacent recycling facility. The SOL method was used to determine the percentage of SS load reduction for six different particle sizes for both the settling device and bypass system. Essentially no load reduction was observed for particles less than 125 micrometers (&mu;m) in diameter, and about a 90-percent reduction occurred for particle sizes greater than 250 &mu;m in diameter. The large removal efficiencies for particle sizes greater than 250 &mu;m in diameter were further supported by the fact that more than 80 percent of the particle sizes trapped in the sump were greater than 250 &mu;m in diameter. These results support the claim by the manufacturer of achieving a large percentage load reduction for particle sizes greater than 250 &mu;m in diameter.

Wisconsin↗

Fish communities of fixed sites in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages, Wisconsin and Michigan, 1993-95

Fish communities were surveyed at 20 wadable stream sites during 1993-95 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Water- Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program's assessment of the Western Lake Michigan Drainages. Part of the NAWQA design is to incorporate ecological data into an overall environmental assessment. Collection of fish-community data was part of this ecological assessment. The Western Lake Michigan Drainages study area is located in eastern Wisconsin and parts of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. To isolate the effects of individual factors on stream quality, the study area was subdivided into 28 environmental settings, or relatively homogeneous units (RHUs), on the basis of land use/land cover, texture of surficial deposits, and bedrock geology. A fixed monitoring site was established on a wadable stream within 8 of these RHUs to determine the status and trends of water quality in a representative stream. Water-quality characteristics, ecological- community data, and stream-habitat factors were measured at these sites during 1993- 95. Fish communities were sampled at the 8 wadable fixed sites once a year during 1993-95. At three of these sites, multiple-reach samples were collected in 1994 to determine within-site variation. Fish communities also were sampled at an additional 12 sites, 11 in 1993 and one in 1995, within the 6 largest RHUs. The sites, 1-3 per each of the 6 RHUs, were located on streams with drainage basins of similar size as the fixed sites within the same RHUs. A total of 44 fish species from 12 families were collected at the 20 sites. The family with the most species represented were the minnows. The number of species per site ranged from one at a small urban site (Lincoln Creek) in 1995 to 21 at an agricultural site (North Branch Milwaukee River) in 1995. The number of individuals collected in one sampling pass ranged from 21 at a stream in the forested northwest part of the study area (Peshekee River) in 1995 to 498 at an agricultural site (East River) in 1995. White sucker (Catostomus commersoni) were collected at 17 sites, the most of any species. Species that are indicative of a coldwater environment were collected at 12 sites. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) of multiple-reach and multiple-year data indicated that species composition at each of these sites were fairly consistent between reaches and years. Thus, for simplicity, most analyses were done using 1993 data only. Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) scores on 1993 data ranged from very poor at a channelized urban site to excellent at 3 sites; 2 in primarily agricultural areas and 1 in a forested area. Seven sites each scored good or fair, and two sites scored poor. Sites with multiple-year or multiple-reach data did not vary significantly within the error factor of the IBI. DCA of fish-community data from 19 sites indicated that coldwater sites were tightly grouped, whereas warmwater sites showed a larger gradient. This was expected, given the potential for greater diversity among warmwater sites. Fixed sites were shown to be representative of the study area as a whole, while specific fish communities could not be attributed to particular RHUs. Cluster analysis revealed two major groups of sites and two outlier sites. The two groups represented coldwater and warmwater streams, while the outlier sites were the urban site and a species- rich site with high biotic integrity that drains primarily agricultural land. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) revealed that soil credibility was a significant predictor of species composition. Though not statistically significant, land use, soil permeability, and bedrock permeability also were indicated as predictors of fish-species composition by CCA.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota↗

Status and trends in suspended-sediment discharges, soil erosion, and conservation tillage in the Maumee River basin: Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana

The relation of suspended-sediment discharges to conservation-tillage practices and soil loss were analyzed for the Maumee River Basin in Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Cropland in the basin is the largest contributor to soil erosion and suspended-sediment discharge to the Maumee River and the river is the largest source of suspended sediments to Lake Erie. Retrospective and recently-collected data from 1970–98 were used to demonstrate that increases in conservation tillage and decreases in soil loss can be related to decreases in suspended-sediment discharge from streams. Average annual water and suspended-sediment budgets computed for the Maumee River Basin and its principal tributaries indicate that soil drainage and runoff potential, stream slope, and agricultural land use are the major human and natural factors related to suspended-sediment discharge. The Tiffin and St. Joseph Rivers drain areas of moderately to somewhat poorly drained soils with moderate runoff potential. Expressed as a percentage of the total for the Maumee River Basin, the St. Joseph and Tiffin Rivers represent 29.0 percent of the basin area, 30.7 percent of the average-annual streamflow, and 9.31 percent of the average annual suspended-sediment discharge. The Auglaize and St. Marys Rivers drain areas of poorly to very poorly drained soils with high runoff potential. Expressed as a percentage of the total for the Maumee River Basin, the Auglaize and St. Marys Rivers represent 48.7 percent of the total basin area, 53.5 percent of the average annual streamflow, and 46.5 percent of the average annual suspended-sediment discharge. Areas of poorly drained soils with high runoff potential appear to be the major source areas of suspended sediment discharge in the Maumee River Basin. Although conservation tillage differed in the degree of use throughout the basin, on average, it was used on 55.4 percent of all crop fields in the Maumee River Basin from 1993–98. Conservation tillage was used at relatively higher rates in areas draining to the lower main stem from Defiance to Waterville, Ohio and at relatively lower rates in the St. Marys and Auglaize River Basins, and in areas draining to the main stem between New Haven, Ind. and Defiance, Ohio. The areas that were identified as the most important sediment-source areas in the basin were characterized by some of the lowest rates of conservation tillage. The increased use of conservation tillage was found to correspond to decreases in suspended- sediment discharge over time at two locations in the Maumee River Basin. A 49.8 percent decrease in suspended-sediment discharge was detected when data from 1970–74 were compared to data from 1996–98 for the Auglaize River near Ft. Jennings, Ohio. A decrease in suspended-sediment discharge of 11.2 percent was detected from 1970–98 for the Maumee River at Waterville, Ohio. No trends in streamflow at either site were detected over the period 1970–98. The lower rate of decline in suspended-sediment discharge for the Maumee River at Waterville, Ohio compared to the Auglaize River near Ft. Jennings, may be due to resuspension and export of stored sediments from drainage ditches, stream channels, and flood plains in the large drainage basin upstream from Waterville. Similar findings by other investigators about the capacity of drainage networks to store sediment are supported by this investigation. These findings go undetected when soil loss estimates are used alone to evaluate the effectiveness of conservation tillage. Water-quality data in combination with soil-loss estimates were needed to draw these conclusions. These findings provide information to farmers and soil conservation agents about the ability of conservation tillage to reduce soil erosion and suspended-sediment discharge from the Maumee River Basin.

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗

Detection of microcystin and other cyanotoxins in lakes at Isle Royale National Park, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore, and Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, northern Michigan, 2012–13

Although cyanotoxins released during algal blooms have become an increasing concern in surface waters across the United States, the presence of cyanotoxins in northern Michigan lakes had not been evaluated in detail. The U.S. Geological Survey and National Park Service (NPS) led a 2-year study (2012 and 2013) to determine the presence of microcystin and other algal toxins in several inland lakes at Isle Royale National Park (hereafter referred to as ISRO, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore (hereafter referred to as PIRO), and Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore (hereafter referred to as SLBE). Samples also were collected at four sites in Lake Michigan within the SLBE. The two analytical techniques used in the study were enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) for microcystin, cylindrospermopsin, and saxitoxin; and liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) for a larger suite of algal toxins. Neither cylindrospermopsin nor saxitoxin were detected in the 211 samples. Microcystin was detected in 31 percent of samples (65 of 211 samples) analyzed by the ELISA method, but no sample results exceeded the World Health Organization recreational health advisory standard for microcystin (10 micrograms per liter [µg/L]). However, about 10 percent of the samples (21 of 211 samples) that were collected from PIRO and SLBE and were analyzed by ELISA for microcystin had concentrations greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) drinking water 10-day health advisory of 0.3 µg/L for children preschool age and younger (less than 6-years old). One sample collected in 2012 from SLBE exceeded the EPA drinking water 10-day health advisory of 1.6 µg/L for school-age children through adults (6-years old and older). In 2012, the highest concentration of 2.7 µg/L was detected in Florence Lake within SLBE. Many visitors enjoy recreation in or on the water and camp in the backcountry at these national parks where the most common source of drinking water is filtered surface water. Approximately 18 percent of the samples (39 of 211 samples) were analyzed by LC/MS/MS to confirm the ELISA results and to evaluate the samples for a larger suite of algal toxins. In general, the microcystin results between the ELISA and LC/MS/MS methods were similar; although, the ELISA results tended to be slightly higher than the summation of LC/MS/MS microcystin congeners. The slightly higher ELISA results might be because the ELISA microcystin method is reactive with the ADDA functional group common to all microcystins, and because not all microcystin congeners are included in the LC/MS/MS method. The LC/MS/MS method indicated that the congener microcystin-LR was the most frequently detected, followed by microcystin-WR and microcystin-YR. Sixteen of the lakes included in this study also were monitored by the NPS for nutrients. Total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were, on average, highest at the ISRO lakes, whereas total nitrogen (TN) concentrations were highest at SLBE. The average annual TN:TP ratios for the 16 lakes within the national park and national lakeshores ranged from ratios of 20 to 89. Overall, results indicated a slight increase in percentage of microcystin detections with an increase in the TN:TP ratio (R-squared 0.269 and 0.340, respectively [2012 and 2013 combined dataset] derived from linear regression). This study also indicated that even in the absence of visible algal blooms, microcystin may be present. Most microcystin concentrations did not exceed the EPA’s 10-day health advisory drinking-water benchmark. In general, these results provide a useful baseline with which to evaluate potential future changes in algal toxin concentrations.

Michigan↗

Benthic algae of benchmark streams in agricultural areas of eastern Wisconsin

Benthic algae were collected from 20 streams in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages by the U.S. Geological Survey in May and June of 1993 as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment program. These streams were selected to represent "benchmark" streams that were minimally affected by human activities, especially agriculture, for comparison to other streams in similar environmental settings. Streams were chosen from four relatively homogeneous units (RHU's) in agricultural areas with differing texture of surficial deposits and bedrock type. Blue-green algae were the dominant algal cells at all but 5 of the 20 stream sites, and the most abundant species at these sites was Calothrix parietina, a nitrogen-fixer typically found in pristine streams. Most of the taxa at all sites were diatoms. The dominant diatom guilds observed were the Achnanthes spp., erect forms, and Navicula spp. Except for three streams thought to have low productivity, the Shannon-Wiener diversity index for diatoms was high at all benchmark streams and indicated either minor stress or no stress on the diatom community. With regard to water quality, additional diatom indexes for 17 of 20 benchmark streams indicated no pollution effects and no significant siltation. All benchmark streams had good to excellent biological integrity and either minor or no impairment of aquatic life with regard to diatoms. A variety of algal metrics and relative abundances of diatom morphological guilds correlated with basin-, segment-and reach-level habitat characteristics, including drainage area, basin drainage density, basin soil permeability, Q/Q2 (instantaneous discharge measured at time of sampling divided by the estimated 2-year flood discharge), stream length, and average width of natural riparian vegetation. Algal taxa richness decreased with higher percentages of agricultural land and lower percentages of forested land. The relative abundance of pollution-tolerant diatoms was higher in streams where the basin land was primarily agricultural as compared to forested. The Shannon- Wiener diversity index for diatoms, the percentage of diatom taxa, and the percent relative abundances of diatom cells, pollution tolerant diatoms, Achnanthes spp., erect diatom forms, nitrogen-fixing algae, and blue-green algae differed significantly among either RHU's or ecoregions. Higher abundances of pollution-sensitive diatoms and a higher pollution index indicate that water quality in sampled streams in the North Central Hardwood Forests ecoregion may be less degraded than in streams in the Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains ecoregion. Algal taxa richness decreased as specific conductance, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite, and suspended sediment increased. This relation may indicate a negative effect of agricultural activities on the algal taxa richness of the stream. Pollution-tolerant diatoms and the pollution index increased as these and additional factors correlated with agriculture increased. Multivariate analyses indicated multiple scales of environmental factors affect algae. Although two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN), detrended correspondence analysis (DCA), and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) generally separated sites according to RHU, only DCA ordination indicated a separation of sites according to ecoregion. Environmental variables con-elated with DCA axes 1 and 2 and therefore indicated as important explanatory factors for algal distribution and abundance were factors related to stream size, basin land use/cover, geomorphology, hydrogeology, and riparian disturbance. CCA analyses with a more limited set of environmental variables indicated that pH, average width of natural riparian vegetation (segment scale), basin land use/cover and Q/Q2 were the most important variables affecting the distribution and relative abundance of benthic algae at the 20 benchmark streams,

Wisconsin↗

Comparison of benthos and plankton for selected areas of concern and non-areas of concern in western Lake Michigan Rivers and Harbors in 2012

Recent data are lacking to assess whether impairments still exist at four of Wisconsin’s largest Lake Michigan harbors that were designated as Areas of Concern (AOCs) in the late 1980s due to sediment contamination and multiple Beneficial Use Impairments (BUIs), such as those affecting benthos (macroinvertebrates) and plankton (zooplankton and phytoplankton) communities. During three seasonal sampling events (“seasons”) in May through August 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey collected sediment benthos and water plankton at the four AOCs as well as six less-degraded non-AOCs along the western Lake Michigan shoreline to assess whether AOC communities were degraded in comparison to non-AOC communities. The four AOCs are the Lower Menominee River, the Lower Green Bay and Fox River, the Sheboygan River, and the Milwaukee Estuary. Due to their size and complexity, multiple locations or “subsites” were sampled within the Lower Green Bay and Fox River AOC (Lower Green Bay, the Fox River near Allouez, and the Fox River near De Pere) and within the Milwaukee Estuary AOC (the Milwaukee River, the Menomonee River, and the Milwaukee Harbor) and single locations were sampled at the other AOCs and non-AOCs. The six non-AOCs are the Escanaba River in Michigan, and the Oconto River, Ahnapee River, Kewaunee River, Manitowoc River, and Root River in Wisconsin. Benthos samples were collected by using Hester-Dendy artificial substrates deployed for 30 days and by using a dredge sampler; zooplankton were collected by net and phytoplankton by whole-water sampler. Except for the Lower Green Bay and Milwaukee Harbor locations, communities at each AOC were compared to all non-AOCs as a group and to paired non-AOCs using taxa relative abundances and metrics, including richness, diversity, and an Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI, for Hester-Dendy samples only). Benthos samples collected during one or more seasons were rated as degraded for at least one metric at all AOCs. In the Milwaukee Estuary, benthos richness was lower in the Milwaukee River subsite spring and summer samples and in the Menomonee River subsite spring sample relative to the paired non-AOCs. Benthos diversity and IBIs at the Menomonee River subsite and IBIs at the Milwaukee River subsite and Sheboygan River were significantly lower than at all non-AOCs as a group across all seasons and therefore were rated as degraded. In addition, IBIs at the Lower Menominee River were significantly lower than those at the paired non-AOCs during all seasons and were therefore rated degraded. Benthos at both Fox River subsites and the Milwaukee River subsite were significantly different from their paired non-AOCs during all three seasons, based on a comparison of the relative abundances of taxa using multivariate testing. Metrics for plankton at AOCs were not significantly lower than those at the paired or group non-AOCs during all seasons; however, zooplankton richness in spring at the Sheboygan River and in fall at the Menomonee River subsite was rated as degraded in comparison to paired non-AOCs. Also, zooplankton richness in fall at the Fox River near Allouez subsite and in spring at the Milwaukee River subsite was rated degraded overall because values were lower than at all non-AOCs as a group and lower than at the paired non-AOCs. Zooplankton diversity in fall at the Fox River near Allouez subsite and the Lower Menominee River was rated degraded in comparison to paired non-AOC comparison sites. Zooplankton communities at the Fox River near Allouez subsite were significantly different from the paired non-AOCs when multivariate comparisons were made without rotifers other than A. priodonta . Overall, benthos and zooplankton BUIs remained at the AOCs in 2012 but no AOCs with a phytoplankton BUI were rated degraded in comparison to non-AOCs. The use of a multiple ecological measures, structural and functional, and multiple statistical analyses, biological metrics and multivariate statistics, provided assessments that defined 2012 status of communities relative to less-impaired non-AOCs in the Great Lakes area.

Michigan↗