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Tracing mercury from land to river: Global sources, retention, and implications for sustainability

Mercury (Hg) pollution in river systems is a global sustainability challenge. Yet the transport, transformation, and retention of Hg within global rivers remain poorly quantified, particularly in regions with sparse observations such as Southeast Asia and Africa, hindering effective pollution mitigation and reinforcing geographic inequities in scientific knowledge and environmental governance. Here, we present the first global, high-resolution simulation of riverine Hg dynamics using a process-based model that traces Hg from land-based sources through river networks to the ocean. Under a realistic scenario, we estimate that ~1,900 megagrams per year (Mg/yr) of Hg enters global rivers, including 1,500 Mg/yr from human-induced sources and 400 Mg/yr from soil erosion. Nearly half of this flux (~1,000 Mg/yr) is retained in reservoirs and dams, which act as major sinks. While such retention limits downstream delivery to the oceans, it also heightens in-reservoir Hg methylation risks. By bridging the gap between Hg releases and observed riverine exports, our framework offers a scalable tool for data-limited regions, promotes data access, and supports global freshwater and pollution-management strategies.

EarthArXiv↗

Water-quality trends in the Scituate reservoir drainage area, Rhode Island, 1983-2012

The Scituate Reservoir is the primary source of drinking water for more than 60 percent of the population of Rhode Island. Water-quality and streamflow data collected at 37 surface-water monitoring stations in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area, Rhode Island, from October 2001 through September 2012, water years (WYs) 2002-12, were analyzed to determine water-quality conditions and constituent loads in the drainage area. Trends in water quality, including physical properties and concentrations of constituents, were investigated for the same period and for a longer period from October 1982 through September 2012 (WYs 1983-2012). Water samples were collected and analyzed by the Providence Water Supply Board, the agency that manages the Scituate Reservoir. Streamflow data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey. Median values and other summary statistics for pH, color, turbidity, alkalinity, chloride, nitrite, nitrate, total coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli ( E. coli ), and orthophosphate were calculated for WYs 2003-12 for all 37 monitoring stations. Instantaneous loads and yields (loads per unit area) of total coliform bacteria and E. coli , chloride, nitrite, nitrate, and orthophosphate were calculated for all sampling dates during WYs 2003-12 for 23 monitoring stations with streamflow data. Values of physical properties and concentrations of constituents were compared with State and Federal water-quality standards and guidelines and were related to streamflow, land-use characteristics, varying classes of timber operations, and impervious surface areas. Tributaries in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area for WYs 2003-12 were slightly acidic (median pH of all stations equal to 6.1) and contained low median concentrations of chloride (22 milligrams per liter [mg/L]), nitrate (0.01 mg/L as nitrogen), nitrite (0.001 mg/L as nitrogen), and orthophosphate (0.02 milligrams per liter as phosphorus [mg/L as P]). Turbidity and alkalinity values also were low with medians of 0.57 nephelometric turbidity units and 5.1 mg/L as calcium carbonate, respectively. Total coliform bacteria and E. coli were detected in most samples from all stations, but median concentrations were generally low-43 colony-forming units per 100 milliliters (mL) and 15 colony-forming units per 100 milliliters, respectively. Median values of several physical properties and median concentrations of several constituents correlated positively with the percentages of developed land and negatively with the percentages of forest cover in the drainage areas above the monitoring stations. Median concentrations of chloride correlated positively with the percentages of impervious land use in the subbasins of monitoring stations, likely reflecting the effects of deicing compounds applied to roadways during winter maintenance. Median concentrations of alkalinity also correlated positively with the percentage of impervious land use, which may be related to the deterioration of fabricated structures containing calcium carbonate. Median values of color correlated positively with the percentage of wetland area in the subbasins of monitoring stations, reflecting the natural sources of color in tributaries. Streamflows were negatively correlated with turbidity and concentrations of total coliform bacteria and E. coli, possibly reflecting seasonal patterns in which relatively high values of these properties and constituents occur during warmer low-flow conditions late in the water year. Similar seasonal patterns were observed for pH, alkalinity, and color. Negative correlations between concentrations of chloride and streamflow also were significant, indicating that deicing salts from roadways and other impervious surfaces that lack direct connection to the tributaries are likely infiltrating to the groundwater and discharging to some of the tributaries late in the water year. While salt-laden runoff directly enters some of the tributaries at roadway crossings, most of the roadway runoff infiltrates into the adjacent berms throughout the drainage area. Statistically significant correlations were not identified between various degrees of tree-canopy reduction caused by timber operations in the subbasins and median values or concentrations of water-quality properties. Loads and yields of chloride, nitrate, nitrite, orthophosphate, and bacteria varied at monitoring stations in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area in WYs 2003-12. Loads generally were greater at stations in the Barden Reservoir and the Regulating Reservoir Subbasins that have larger drainage areas than in subbasins with smaller drainage areas. Subbasin yields of fecal-indicator bacteria and orthophosphate generally were largest in the Westconnaug Reservoir Subbasin, and subbasin yields for chloride, nitrate, and nitrite were largest in the Moswansicut Reservoir Subbasin in the northeastern part of the drainage area. Upward trends in pH were identified for nearly half of the monitoring stations for WYs 1983-2012 and may reflect regional reductions in acid precipitation. Many upward trends in alkalinity also were identified for both the WYs 1983-2012 and for WYs 2003-12 periods and are likely related to the natural weathering of structures containing concrete or, in some cases, the application of lime or fertilizers on agriculture lands. Significant trends in chloride concentrations at most stations during WYs 1983-2012 were upward; however, results for WYs 2003-12 substantiate few significant upward trends and, in a few cases, downward trends were identified in several tributary drainage areas.

Rhode Island↗

Assessment of sediments in the riverine impoundments of national wildlife refuges in the Souris River Basin, North Dakota

Accelerated sedimentation of reservoirs and riverine impoundments is a major concern throughout the United States. Sediments not only fill impoundments and reduce their effective life span, but they can reduce water quality by increasing turbidity and introducing harmful chemical constituents such as heavy metals, toxic elements, and nutrients. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service national wildlife refuges in the north-central part of the United States have documented high amounts of sediment accretion in some wetlands that could negatively affect important aquatic habitats for migratory birds and other wetland-dependent wildlife. Therefore, information pertaining to sediment accumulation in refuge impoundments potentially is important to guide conservation planning, including future management actions of individual impoundments. Lands comprising Des Lacs, Upper Souris, and J. Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuges, collectively known as the Souris River Basin refuges, encompass reaches of the Des Lacs and Souris Rivers of northwestern North Dakota. The riverine impoundments of the Souris River Basin refuges are vulnerable to sedimentation because of the construction of in-stream dams that interrupt and slow river flows and because of post-European settlement land-use changes that have increased the potential for soil erosion and transport to rivers. Information regarding sediments does not exist for these refuges, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service personnel have expressed interest in assessing refuge impoundments to support refuge management decisions. Sediment cores and surface sediment samples were collected from impoundments within Des Lacs, Upper Souris, and J. Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuges during 2004–05. Cores were used to estimate sediment accretion rates using radioisotope (cesium-137 [ 137 Cs], lead-210 [ 210 Pb]) dating techniques. Sediment cores and surface samples were analyzed for a suite of elements and agrichemicals, respectively. Examination of core characteristics along the depth profile suggests that there has been regular sediment mixing and removal, as well as non-uniform sediment deposition with time. Estimated mean accretion rates based on the three methods of determination (two time markers for 137 Cs, 210 Pb) ranged from 0.22–0.35 centimeters per year, and approximately 70 percent of cores had less 137 Cs than expected. Concentrations of sediment-associated elements generally were within reported reference ranges, and all agrichemicals analyzed were below detection limits. Results suggest that there does not appear to be widespread sediment accumulation in impoundments of the Souris River Basin refuges. In addition, there were no identifiable patterns among sedimentation rates from the upstream (Des Lacs, Upper Souris) to the downstream (J. Clark Salyer) refuges. There were, however, apparent upstream to downstream patterns of increased concentrations of some elements (for example, aluminum, boron, and vanadium) that may warrant further exploration. Future related monitoring and research efforts should focus on areas with high potential for sediment accumulation, such as upstream areas adjacent to dams, to identify potential sediment problems before they become too severe. Further, assessments of suspended sediments transported in the Des Lacs and Souris Rivers would augment interpretation of sedimentation data by identifying potential sediment sources and areas with the greatest potential for accumulation.

North Dakota↗

Sediment deposition and trends and transport of phosphorus and other chemical constituents, Cheney Reservoir watershed, south-central Kansas

Sediment deposition, water-quality trends, and mass transport of phosphorus, nitrogen, selected trace elements, and selected pesticides within the Cheney Reservoir watershed in south-central Kansas were investigated using bathymetric survey data and reservoir bottom-sediment cores. Sediment loads in the reservoir were investigated by comparing 1964 topographic data to 1998 bathymetric survey data. Approximately 7,100 acre-feet of sediment deposition occurred in Cheney Reservoir from 1965 through 1998. As of 1998, sediment had filled 27 percent of the reservoir's inactive conservation storage pool, which is less than the design estimate of 34 percent. Mean annual sediment deposition was 209 acre-feet per year, or 0.22 acre-feet per year per square mile, and the mean annual sediment load was 453 million pounds per year. During the 3-year period from 1997 through 1999, 23 sediment cores were collected from the reservoir, and subsamples were analyzed for nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen species), selected trace elements, and selected organic pesticides. Mean concentrations of total phosphorus in reservoir bottom sediment ranged from 94 milligrams per kilogram at the upstream end of the reservoir to 710 milligrams per kilogram farther downstream near the reservoir dam. The mean concentration for all sites was 480 milligrams per kilogram. Total phosphorus concentrations were greatest when more silt- and clay-sized particles were present. The implications are that if anoxic conditions (inadequate oxygen) occur near the dam, phosphorus could be released from the sediment and affect the drinking-water supply. Analysis of selected cores also indicates that total phosphorus concentrations in the reservoir sediment increased over time and were probably the result of nonpoint-source activities in the watershed, such as increased fertilizer use and livestock production. Mean annual phosphorus loading to Cheney Reservoir was estimated to be 226,000 pounds per year on the basis of calculations from deposited sediment in the reservoir. Mean total phosphorus concentration in the surface-water inflow to Cheney Reservoir was 0.76 milligram per liter, mean annual phosphorus yield of the watershed was estimated to be 0.38 pound per year per acre, and both are based on sediment deposition in the reservoir. A comparison of the Cheney Reservoir watershed to the Webster Reservoir, Tuttle Creek Lake, and Hillsdale Lake watersheds showed that phosphorus yields were smallest in the Webster Reservoir watershed where precipitation was less than in the other watersheds. Mean concentrations of total ammonia plus organic nitrogen in bottom sediment from Cheney Reservoir ranged from 1,200 to 2,400 milligrams per kilogram as nitrogen. A regression analysis between total ammonia plus organic nitrogen as nitrogen and sediment particle size showed a strong relation between the two variables and suggests, as with phosphorus, that total ammonia plus organic nitrogen as nitrogen adsorbs to the silt- and clay-sized particles that are transported to the deeper parts of the reservoir. An analysis of trends with depth of total ammonia plus organic nitrogen as nitrogen did not indicate a strong relation between the two variables despite the increase in fertilizer use in the watershed during the past 40 years. Selected cores were analyzed for trace elements. Concentrations of arsenic, chromium, copper, and nickel at many sites exceeded levels where adverse effects on aquatic organisms sometimes occur. Larger concentrations of these elements also occurred in sediment closer to the reservoir dam where there is a larger percentage of silt and clay in the bottom sediment than farther upstream. However, the lack of industrial or commercial land use in the watershed suggests that these concentrations may be the result of natural conditions. Organochlorine insecticides were detected in the reservoir-bottom sediment in Cheney Reservoir. DDT and its degradation products DDD and DDE were detected in analyzed samples but at concentrations that were less than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended guidelines for these compounds. Similarly, selected organophosphate insecticides and acetanilide, chlorophenoxy-acid, and triazine herbicides were analyzed in reservoir sediment samples; however, only small concentrations of the acetanilide herbicide metolachlor were detected. The reservoir sediment investigation at Cheney Reservoir was used to reconstruct historical trends in water quality and can be used to measure the effectiveness of best-management practices that have been implemented throughout the reservoir watershed. With the addition of bathymetric surveys and the inclusion of additional reservoir watersheds, sediment investigations also can be used to estimate historical loading of phosphorus and other constituents in future water-quality assessments throughout Kansas.

Kansas↗

Geohydrology and potential hydrologic effects of underground coal mining in the Rapid Creek Basin, Mesa County, Colorado

The U.S. Bureau of Land Management may lease additional coal tracts in the Rapid Creek basin, Colorado. Springs in this basin are used as a water supply for the town of Palisade. The geohydrology of the basin is described and the potential hydrologic effects of underground coal mining in the basin summarized. Geologic formations in the basin consists of Cretaceous sandstone and shale, Tertiary sandstone, shale, and basalt, and unconsolidated deposits of Quaternary age. Some sandstone and coal beds are permeable, although bedrock in the basin typically is a confining bed. Unconsolidated deposits contain aquifers that are the source of spring discharge. Stream discharge was measured on Rapid and Cottonwood Creeks, and inventories were made of 7 reservoirs, 25 springs, and 12 wells. Specific conductance of streams ranged from 320 to 1,050 microsiemens/cm at 25C; pH ranged from 7.8 to 8.6. Specific conductance of springs ranged from 95 to 1,050 microsiemens/cm at 25C; pH ranged from 6.8 to 8.3. Discharge from the basin includes about 18,800 acre-ft/yr as evapotranspiration, 1,300 acre-ft/yr as springflow, 1,280 acre-ft/yr as streamflow, and negligible groundwater flow in bedrock. With appropriate mining methods, underground mining would not decrease flow in basin streams or from springs. The potential effects of mining-caused subsidence might include water-pipeline damage and temporary dewatering of bedrock adjacent to coal mining. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Using a distribution and conservation status weighted hotspot approach to identify areas in need of conservation action to benefit Idaho bird species

Identification of biodiversity hotspots (hereafter, hotspots) has become a common strategy to delineate important areas for wildlife conservation. However, the use of hotspots has not often incorporated important habitat types, ecosystem services, anthropogenic activity, or consistency in identifying important conservation areas. The purpose of this study was to identify hotspots to improve avian conservation efforts for Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) in the state of Idaho, United States. We evaluated multiple approaches to define hotspots and used a unique approach based on weighting species by their distribution size and conservation status to identify hotspot areas. All hotspot approaches identified bodies of water (Bear Lake, Grays Lake, and American Falls Reservoir) as important hotspots for Idaho avian SGCN, but we found that the weighted approach produced more congruent hotspot areas when compared to other hotspot approaches. To incorporate anthropogenic activity into hotspot analysis, we grouped species based on their sensitivity to specific human threats (i.e., urban development, agriculture, fire suppression, grazing, roads, and logging) and identified ecological sections within Idaho that may require specific conservation actions to address these human threats using the weighted approach. The Snake River Basalts and Overthrust Mountains ecological sections were important areas for potential implementation of conservation actions to conserve biodiversity. Our approach to identifying hotspots may be useful as part of a larger conservation strategy to aid land managers or local governments in applying conservation actions on the ground.

Idaho↗

U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address highly pathogenic avian influenza and its effects on wildlife health 2025–29

Executive Summary Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an ecologically and economically important animal disease that can also directly affect humans (a “zoonotic” disease). HPAI was once limited almost exclusively to domestic poultry but has rapidly adapted to diverse animal hosts. Viruses causing HPAI now appear to be maintained and dispersed by wild birds largely independent of poultry, though HPAI continues to cause considerable economic losses and supply chain disruptions in the domestic poultry trade. Coincident with the adaptation of HPAI viruses to wild birds, particularly waterfowl and gulls, increasingly diverse wild bird hosts are becoming exposed to HPAI, often resulting in disease and death. More sporadically, HPAI has caused mass mortality events, particularly among seabirds. Furthermore, viral spillover to wild and domestic mammals has become more common. Spillover to wild mammals has resulted in mortality among diverse terrestrial and marine taxa, including episodic losses of such scale as to represent potential conservation challenges. Since approximately March 2024, HPAI has also affected dairy cows, which represents a new threat to the agricultural economy. Lastly, HPAI has increasingly affected humans through domestic animal exposures, exemplifying the considerable implications of this disease beyond animal health. Rapid changes in the ecology of HPAI are currently outpacing research efforts. For example, it is not entirely clear which newly established hosts may become reservoirs for HPAI viruses (in other words, capable of maintaining HPAI viruses within a broad population indefinitely) and how this may influence viral evolution and dissemination. As a result, there are considerable information gaps regarding HPAI in wildlife that, if filled, would improve the ability of scientists, managers, agricultural industry representatives, and healthcare professionals to understand and to anticipate the effects of HPAI on wild animal, domestic animal, environmental, and human health (“One Health”). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the lead Federal agency providing scientific research on avian influenza viruses (AIVs), including HPAI viruses, that affect wildlife for which the Department of the Interior (DOI) has management authority. States have jurisdiction over wildlife on Federal lands within their borders (43 CFR § 24.3), so the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area (EMA) coordinates with State natural resource management agencies. The EMA focuses its research on HPAI through priorities identified by the USGS Avian Influenza Science Team ( app. 1 ). Priorities identified by the USGS Avian Influenza Science Team are based on Administration priorities, Congressional direction, and discussions with State, Federal, and Tribal natural resource management agencies that identify specific scientific gaps that need to be filled to inform sound wildlife management decisions. Notable non-DOI Federal partners include the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the lead for the HPAI regulatory response in poultry and livestock, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the lead agency for the HPAI response pertaining to human health. The USGS offers unique expertise and capacity pertaining to research on diseases affecting free-ranging wildlife populations. This expertise has been critical to interjurisdictional surveillance and capacity-building efforts, including programs administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the CDC. The USGS also provides resources, guidance, and tools to inform surveillance and interventions conducted by natural resource management agencies. More specifically, the USGS EMA provides objective and rigorous scientific data for inferring (1) the utility of new methods to detect and characterize AIVs, including those maintained in wildlife and the environment; (2) effects of HPAI on wildlife; (3) spatiotemporal patterns of wildlife host and AIV dispersal; (4) the presence and persistence of AIVs in the environment; (5) how HPAI in wildlife influences consumptive and nonconsumptive utilization of wildlife; (6) how new tools and scientific methods may promote sound management decisions for HPAI-affected wildlife, particularly species of conservation concern; and (7) the combined effects of HPAI and other stressors on ecosystem health and resiliency. This science strategy builds upon research outlined in a previous USGS science strategy for HPAI (2016–20) by Harris and others (2016) . This strategy also details research priorities identified by the Administration (for example, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2025 ) and others based on USGS Avian Influenza Science Team discussions with natural resource management agencies to address HPAI and wildlife health over the next 5 years (2025–29). This strategy presents 7 goals and 26 objectives that focus USGS and partner efforts on priorities that will fill data gaps regarding the effects of HPAI on wildlife managed by or co-managed with the U.S. Department of the Interior such that agencies and partners might anticipate or limit adverse effects on public resources. This strategy also identifies research priorities intended to address HPAI in wildlife and wildlife habitat that are anticipated to support interjurisdictional One Health efforts.

Circular↗

A petroleum system model for gas hydrate deposits in northern Alaska

Gas hydrate deposits are common on the North Slope of Alaska around Prudhoe Bay, however the extent of these deposits is unknown outside of this area. As part of a United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) gas hydrate research collaboration, well cutting and mud gas samples have been collected and analyzed from mainly industry-drilled wells on the Alaska North Slope for the purpose of prospecting for gas hydrate deposits. On the Alaska North Slope, gas hydrates are now recognized as an element within a petroleum systems approach or TPS (Total Petroleum System). Since 1979, 35 wells have been samples from as far west as Wainwright to Prudhoe Bay in the east. Geochemical studies of known gas hydrate occurrences on the North Slope have shown a link between gas hydrate and more deeply buried conventional oil and gas deposits. Hydrocarbon gases migrate from depth and charge the reservoir rock within the gas hydrate stability zone. It is likely gases migrated into conventional traps as free gas, and were later converted to gas hydrate in response to climate cooling concurrent with permafrost formation. Gas hydrate is known to occur in one of the sampled wells, likely present in 22 others based gas geochemistry and inferred by equivocal gas geochemistry in 11 wells, and absent in one well. Gas migration routes are common in the North Slope and include faults and widespread, continuous, shallowly dipping permeable sand sections that are potentially in communication with deeper oil and gas sources. The application of this model with the geochemical evidence suggests that gas hydrate deposits may be widespread across the North Slope of Alaska.

Alaska↗

Mercury sources and budget for the Snake River above a hydroelectric reservoir complex

Understanding sources of mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) to a water body is critical for management but is often complicated by poorly characterized Hg inputs and in situ processes, such as inorganic Hg methylation. In this study, we determined inorganic Hg and MeHg concentrations and loads (filter-passing and particulate fractions) for a semi-arid 164-kilometer stretch of the Snake River above the Hells Canyon Complex, a Hg-impaired hydroelectric reservoir complex on the Idaho-Oregon border, and used water quality measurements and Hg stable isotope ratios to create a comprehensive Hg source budget for the river. Results show that whereas most of the streamflow to the study reach comes from the main branch of the Snake River (i.e., the upstream watershed), major tributaries within the study reach contribute a greater proportion of inorganic Hg and MeHg loads. Mercury stable-isotope analyses highlight that Hg within the tributaries is predominantly associated with geologic deposits and snowmelt sources, the latter reflecting wet deposition. Surprisingly, irrigation return drains contribute 40–50 % of particulate inorganic Hg loads despite being ≤4.3 % of the overall water budget. Together, tributaries and irrigation return drains account for 97–100 % of the inorganic Hg and streamflow to the study reach, but ~65 % of the MeHg, indicating in-stream and riparian methylation may be an important and previously unrecognized source of MeHg. Streamflow, total suspended solids, dissolved organic carbon, and agricultural land cover were found to be important controls on the mobilization and transport of different Hg species and fractions. This study represents the first fluvial budget for Hg in the Snake River that accounts for particulate and filter-passing Hg species from both major tributaries and irrigation return drains, and expands our understanding of Hg sources and methylation processes within semi-arid environments. This information is critical to inform management decisions related to elevated Hg burdens in biota.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon↗

Water-Quality Conditions and Constituent Loads, Water Years 1996-2002, and Water-Quality Trends, Water Years 1983-2002, in the Scituate Reservoir Drainage Area, Rhode Island

The Scituate Reservoir is the primary source of drinking water for more than 60 percent of the population of Rhode Island. Water-quality data and streamflow data collected at 37 surface-water monitoring stations in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area, Rhode Island, from October 1, 1995 through September 30, 2002, (water years (WY) 1996-2002) were analyzed to determine water-quality conditions and constituent loads in the drainage area. Trends in water quality, including physical properties and concentrations of constituents, were investigated for the same period and for a longer period from October 1, 1982 through September 30, 2002 (WY 1983-2002). Water samples were collected and analyzed by Providence Water Supply Board, the agency that manages the Scituate Reservoir. Streamflow data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey. Median values and other summary statistics were calculated for WY 1996-2002 for all 37 monitoring stations for pH, color, turbidity, alkalinity, chloride, nitrite, nitrate, total coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese. Instantaneous loads and yields (loads per unit area) of total coliform and E. coli bacteria (indicator bacteria), chloride, nitrite, nitrate, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese were calculated for all sampling dates during WY 1996-2002 for the 23 stations with streamflow data. Values of physical properties and concentrations of constituents were compared to State and Federal water-quality standards and guidelines, and were related to streamflow, land-use characteristics, and road density. Tributary stream water in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area for WY 1996-2002 was slightly acidic (median pH of all stations equal to 6.1) and contained low concentrations of chloride (median 13 milligrams per liter (mg/L)), nitrate (median 0.04 mg/L as N), and orthophosphate (median 0.04 mg/L as P). Turbidity and alkalinity values also were low with median values of 0.62 nephelometric turbidity units and 4.8 mg/L as calcium carbonate, respectively. Indicator bacteria were detected in samples from all stations, but median concentrations were low, 23 and 9 colony-forming units per 100 mL for total coliform and E. coli bacteria, respectively. Median values of several physical properties and median concentrations of several constituents that can be related to human activities correlated positively with the percentages of developed land and correlated negatively with the percentages of forest cover in the drainage areas of the monitoring stations. Median concentrations of chloride also correlated positively with the density of roads in the drainage areas of monitoring stations, likely reflecting the effects of road-salt applications. Median values of color correlated positively with the percentages of wetlands in the drainage areas of monitoring stations, reflecting the natural sources of color in tributary stream waters. Negative correlations of turbidity, indicator bacteria, and chloride with streamflow likely reflect seasonal patterns, in which higher values and concentrations of these properties and constituents occur during low-flow conditions at the ends of water years. Similar seasonal patterns were observed for pH, alkalinity, and color. Loads and yields of chloride, nitrate, orthophosphate, and bacteria varied among monitoring stations in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area. Loads generally were higher at stations with larger drainage areas and at stations in the eastern, more developed parts of the Scituate Reservoir drainage area. Yields generally were higher at stations in the eastern parts of the drainage area. Upward trends in pH were identified for nearly half the monitoring stations and may reflect regional reductions in acid precipitation. Upward and downward trends were identified in chloride concentrations at various stations; upward trends may reflect the effects of increasing development, whereas strong downward trends at

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Estimation of Total Nitrogen and Phosphorus in New England Streams Using Spatially Referenced Regression Models

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (NEIWPCC), has developed a water-quality model, called SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes), to assist in regional total maximum daily load (TMDL) and nutrient-criteria activities in New England. SPARROW is a spatially detailed, statistical model that uses regression equations to relate total nitrogen and phosphorus (nutrient) stream loads to nutrient sources and watershed characteristics. The statistical relations in these equations are then used to predict nutrient loads in unmonitored streams. The New England SPARROW models are built using a hydrologic network of 42,000 stream reaches and associated watersheds. Watershed boundaries are defined for each stream reach in the network through the use of a digital elevation model and existing digitized watershed divides. Nutrient source data is from permitted wastewater discharge data from USEPA's Permit Compliance System (PCS), various land-use sources, and atmospheric deposition. Physical watershed characteristics include drainage area, land use, streamflow, time-of-travel, stream density, percent wetlands, slope of the land surface, and soil permeability. The New England SPARROW models for total nitrogen and total phosphorus have R-squared values of 0.95 and 0.94, with mean square errors of 0.16 and 0.23, respectively. Variables that were statistically significant in the total nitrogen model include permitted municipal-wastewater discharges, atmospheric deposition, agricultural area, and developed land area. Total nitrogen stream-loss rates were significant only in streams with average annual flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. In streams larger than this, there is nondetectable in-stream loss of annual total nitrogen in New England. Variables that were statistically significant in the total phosphorus model include discharges for municipal wastewater-treatment facilities and pulp and paper facilities, developed land area, agricultural area, and forested area. For total phosphorus, loss rates were significant for reservoirs with surface areas of 10 square kilometers or less, and in streams with flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. Applications of SPARROW for evaluating nutrient loading in New England waters include estimates of the spatial distributions of total nitrogen and phosphorus yields, sources of the nutrients, and the potential for delivery of those yields to receiving waters. This information can be used to (1) predict ranges in nutrient levels in surface waters, (2) identify the environmental variables that are statistically significant predictors of nutrient levels in streams, (3) evaluate monitoring efforts for better determination of nutrient loads, and (4) evaluate management options for reducing nutrient loads to achieve water-quality goals.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Executive summary. In Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report

Central to life on Earth, carbon is essential to the molecular makeup of all living things and plays a key role in regulating global climate. To understand carbon’s role in these processes, researchers measure and evaluate carbon stocks and fluxes. A stock is the quantity of carbon contained in a pool or reservoir in the Earth system (e.g., carbon in forest trees), and a flux is the direction and rate of carbon’s transfer between pools (e.g., the movement of carbon from the atmosphere into forest trees during photosynthesis). This document, the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2), examines the patterns of carbon stocks and fluxes—collectively called the “carbon cycle.” Emphasis is given to these patterns in specific sectors (e.g., agriculture and energy) and ecosystems (e.g., forests and coastal waters) and to the response of the carbon cycle to human activity. The purpose of SOCCR2 is to assess the current state of the North American carbon cycle and to present recent advances in understanding the factors that influence it. Concentrating on North America—Canada, the United States, and Mexico—the report describes carbon cycling for air, land, inland waters (streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs), and coastal waters (see Figure ES.1, p. 23). The questions framing the publication A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (Michalak et al., 2011) inspired development of three slightly modified questions that guide SOCCR2’s content and focus on North America in a global context: How have natural processes and human actions affected the global carbon cycle on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean and other aquatic systems, and at ecosystem interfaces (e.g., coastal, wetland, and urban-rural)? How have socioeconomic trends affected atmospheric levels of the primary carbon-containing gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)? How have species, ecosystems, natural resources, and human systems been impacted by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, associated changes in climate, and carbon management decisions and practices? SOCCR2 synthesizes the most recent understanding of carbon cycling in North America, assessing new carbon cycle findings and information, the state of knowledge regarding core methods used to study the carbon cycle, and future research needed to best inform carbon management and policy options. Focusing on scientific developments in the decade since the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR1; CCSP 2007), SOCCR2 summarizes the past, current, and projected state of carbon sources, sinks, and natural processes, as well as contributions by human activities. In addition to CO2 and CH4, the report sometimes discusses nitrous oxide (N2O), a GHG associated with activities and processes that affect fluxes of carbon gases.1 SOCCR2 also describes improvements in analysis tools; developments in decision support; and new insights into ecosystem carbon cycling, human causes of changes in the carbon cycle, and social science perspectives on carbon. Since publication of SOCCR1, coordinated research from agencies in the three North American countries has enabled innovative observational, analytical, and modeling capabilities to further advance understanding of the North American carbon cycle (see Appendix D: Carbon Measurement Approaches and Accounting Frameworks, p. 834). Some of the report’s main conclusions, based on the Key Findings of each chapter, are highlighted in Box ES.1, Main Findings of SOCCR2, p. 24.

Report↗

Rainfall-Runoff and Water-Balance Models for Management of the Fena Valley Reservoir, Guam

The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and a generalized water-balance model were calibrated and verified for use in estimating future availability of water in the Fena Valley Reservoir in response to various combinations of water withdrawal rates and rainfall conditions. Application of PRMS provides a physically based method for estimating runoff from the Fena Valley Watershed during the annual dry season, which extends from January through May. Runoff estimates from the PRMS are used as input to the water-balance model to estimate change in water levels and storage in the reservoir. A previously published model was calibrated for the Maulap and Imong River watersheds using rainfall data collected outside of the watershed. That model was applied to the Almagosa River watershed by transferring calibrated parameters and coefficients because information on daily diversions at the Almagosa Springs upstream of the gaging station was not available at the time. Runoff from the ungaged land area was not modeled. For this study, the availability of Almagosa Springs diversion data allowed the calibration of PRMS for the Almagosa River watershed. Rainfall data collected at the Almagosa rain gage since 1992 also provided better estimates of rainfall distribution in the watershed. In addition, the discontinuation of pan-evaporation data collection in 1998 required a change in the evapotranspiration estimation method used in the PRMS model. These reasons prompted the update of the PRMS for the Fena Valley Watershed. Simulated runoff volume from the PRMS compared reasonably with measured values for gaging stations on Maulap, Almagosa, and Imong Rivers, tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir. On the basis of monthly runoff simulation for the dry seasons included in the entire simulation period (1992-2001), the total volume of runoff can be predicted within -3.66 percent at Maulap River, within 5.37 percent at Almagosa River, and within 10.74 percent at Imong River. Month-end reservoir volumes simulated by the reservoir water-balance model for both calibration and verification periods compared closely with measured reservoir volumes. Errors for the calibration periods ranged from 4.51 percent [208.7 acre-feet (acre-ft) or 68.0 million gallons (Mgal)] to -5.90 percent (-317.8 acre-ft or -103.6 Mgal). For the verification periods, errors ranged from 1.69 percent (103.5 acre-ft or 33.7 Mgal) to -4.60 percent (-178.7 acre-ft or -58.2 Mgal). Monthly simulation bias ranged from -0.19 percent for the calibration period to -0.98 percent for the verification period; relative error ranged from -0.37 to -1.12 percent, respectively. Relatively small bias indicated that the model did not consistently overestimate or underestimate reservoir volume.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Modeling of land use and reservoir effects on nonpoint source pollution in a highly agricultural basin

Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is tightly linked to land use activities that determine the sources and magnitudes of pollutant loadings to stream water. The pollutant loads may also be alleviated within reservoirs because of the physical interception resulting from changed hydrological regimes and other biochemical processes. It is important but challenging to assess the NPS pollution processes with human effects due to the measurement limitations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of human activities such as land uses and reservoir operation on the hydrological and NPS pollution processes in a highly agricultural area-the Iowa River Basin-using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The evaluation of model performance at multiple sites reveals that SWAT can consistently simulate the daily streamflow, and monthly/annual sediment and nutrient loads (nitrate nitrogen and mineral phosphorus) in the basin. We also used the calibrated model to estimate the trap efficiencies of sediment (~78%) and nutrients (~30%) in the Coralville Reservoir within the basin. These non-negligible effects emphasize the significance of incorporating the sediment and nutrient removal mechanisms into watershed system studies. The spatial quantification of the critical NPS pollution loads can help identify hot-spot areas that are likely locations for the best management practices.

Iowa↗

Phosphorus and the Chesapeake Bay: Lingering issues and emerging concerns for agriculture

Hennig Brandt's discovery of phosphorus (P) occurred during the early European colonization of the Chesapeake Bay region. Today, P, an essential nutrient on land and water alike, is one of the principal threats to the health of the bay. Despite widespread implementation of best management practices across the Chesapeake Bay watershed following the implementation in 2010 of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) to improve the health of the bay, P load reductions across the bay's 166,000‐km 2 watershed have been uneven, and dissolved P loads have increased in a number of the bay's tributaries. As the midpoint of the 15‐yr TMDL process has now passed, some of the more stubborn sources of P must now be tackled. For nonpoint agricultural sources, strategies that not only address particulate P but also mitigate dissolved P losses are essential. Lingering concerns include legacy P stored in soils and reservoir sediments, mitigation of P in artificial drainage and stormwater from hotspots and converted farmland, manure management and animal heavy use areas, and critical source areas of P in agricultural landscapes. While opportunities exist to curtail transport of all forms of P, greater attention is required toward adapting P management to new hydrologic regimes and transport pathways imposed by climate change.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

Hydrogeology and potential effects of changes in water use, Carson Desert agricultural area, Churchill County, Nevada

Operating Criteria and Procedures established in 1988 for delivery of water for irrigation in the Newlands Project area include regulations and methods to increase Project efficiency. Public Law 101-618 of 1990 includes a target of 75-percent Project efficiency and a program of water-rights acquisition for wetlands maintenance. The directives could result in large reductions in water used for irrigation in the Carson Desert, potentially affecting ground-water supplies. Previous studies of the area have been evaluated to determine the current understanding of how aquifers are recharged, what controls the flow and quality of ground water, potential effects of changes in water use, and what additional information would be needed to quantify further changes in water use. Inflow of surface water to the basin from Lahontan Reservoir averaged about 370,000 acre-ft/yr (acre-feet per year) from 1975 to 1992, supplying water for irrigation of more than 50,000 acres. More than half of the water released from the reservoir is lost to seepage, operational spills, and evaporation before delivery of about 170,000 acre-ft/yr to farm headgates. The volume of water delivered to farms that does not contribute to crop consumptive use (on-farm loss) is poorly known but could be as much as 60,000 acre-ft/yr. Consumptive use on irrigated land may be about 180,000 acre-ft/yr, of which 50,000 acre-ft/yr may be derived from the shallow aquifer. Outflow from irrigated land is a mixture of operational spill, runoff from irrigated fields, and ground-water seepage to drains. Total outflow averages about 170,000 to 190,000 acre-ft/yr. This water flows to wetlands at Carson Lake, Stillwater Wildlife Management Area, and Carson Sink. Three sedimentary aquifers were previously defined in the basin: a shallow aquifer having highly variable lithology and water quality, an intermediate aquifer containing principally fresh water, and a deep aquifer having water of poor quality. The deep aquifer could possibly be divided into sedimentary and volcanic zones. In addition, a near-surface zone may exist near the top of the shallow aquifer where vertical flow is inhibited by underlying clay beds. A basalt aquifer near the center of the basin is the source of public supply and is recharged by the shallow, intermediate, and deep aquifers. Water levels in the basalt aquifer have declined about 10 feet from pre-pumping levels, and chloride and arsenic concentrations in the water have increased. The average depth to ground water has decreased beneath large areas of the Carson Desert since 1904 as a result of recharge of surface water used for irrigation. Ground water generally flows from west to east, and dissolvedsolids concentrations increase greatly near areas of ground-water discharge, where State of Nevada drinking-water standards commonly are exceeded. Uncertainties in the rates of recharge to and discharge from the basin cause an imbalance in the calculated water budget. Estimates for total recharge range from 400,000 to 420,000 acreft/yr, whereas estimates for discharge range from 630,000 to 680,000 acre-ft/yr. Estimates of inflow to and outflow from aquifers of the study area are as follows: shallow aquifer, more than 120,000 acre-ft/yr; intermediate aquifer, possibly more than 25,000 acre-ft/yr; deep aquifer, unknown; and basalt aquifer, about 4,000 acre-ft/yr. Estimates for flow volumes to and from the shallow and intermediate aquifers are based on assumed aquifer properties and could be in error by an order of magnitude or more. Conceptual models of the basin show that ground-water flow is downward from the shallow aquifer to the intermediate aquifer in the western part and near the center of the basin, and is upward in the eastern part of the basin. Little is known about flow in the deep aquifer. Nearsurface clay beds inhibit vertical flow near the center and eastern part of the basin except where breached by relict sand-filled channels of the Carson River. Conceptual models of the basin show that changes in water use in the western part of the basin probably would affect recharge to the sedimentary and basalt aquifers. Near the center of the basin, water-use changes could affect the shallow and basalt aquifers but might have less effect on the intermediate aquifer. In the eastern part of the basin, changes could affect the shallow aquifer, but would probably not affect the intermediate or basalt aquifers. If seepage is decreased by lining canals, and land is removed from production, water-level declines in the shallow aquifer could be greater than 10 feet as far as 2 miles from the lined canals. Depending upon the distribution of specific yield, decreasing recharge by 25,000 to 50,000 acre-ft/yr beneath 30,000 acres could cause water levels to decline from 4 to 17 feet. Where ground water supplements crop consumptive use, water levels could temporarily rise when land is removed from production. Where water is pumped from a near-surface zone of the shallow aquifer, water-level declines might not greatly affect pumped wells where the nearsurface zone is thickest, but could cause wells to go dry where the zone is thin. The understanding of surface-water and ground-water relations, recharge and discharge of ground water, ground-water movement, and the potential effects of changes in water use in the Carson Desert can be refined by studying (1) the extent of potable water in the intermediate and basalt aquifers, (2) lithology and specific yield of aquifer materials, (3) data on ground-water levels and quality, and (4) data on surface-water flow and quality, as well as monitoring the effects of changes in water use as they take place.

Nevada↗

Spatially distributed groundwater recharge estimated using a water-budget model for the Island of Maui, Hawai`i, 1978–2007

Demand for freshwater on the Island of Maui is expected to grow. To evaluate the availability of fresh groundwater, estimates of groundwater recharge are needed. A water-budget model with a daily computation interval was developed and used to estimate the spatial distribution of recharge on Maui for average climate conditions (1978–2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover) and for drought conditions (1998–2002 rainfall and 2010 land cover). For average climate conditions, mean annual recharge for Maui is about 1,309 million gallons per day, or about 44 percent of precipitation (rainfall and fog interception). Recharge for average climate conditions is about 39 percent of total water inflow consisting of precipitation, irrigation, septic leachate, and seepage from reservoirs and cesspools. Most recharge occurs on the wet, windward slopes of Haleakalā and on the wet, uplands of West Maui Mountain. Dry, coastal areas generally have low recharge. In the dry isthmus, however, irrigated fields have greater recharge than nearby unirrigated areas. For drought conditions, mean annual recharge for Maui is about 1,010 million gallons per day, which is 23 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions. For individual aquifer-system areas used for groundwater management, recharge for drought conditions is about 8 to 51 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions. The spatial distribution of rainfall is the primary factor determining spatially distributed recharge estimates for most areas on Maui. In wet areas, recharge estimates are also sensitive to water-budget parameters that are related to runoff, fog interception, and forest-canopy evaporation. In dry areas, recharge estimates are most sensitive to irrigated crop areas and parameters related to evapotranspiration.

Hawai'i↗

Decadal-scale export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment from the Susquehanna River basin, USA: Analysis and synthesis of temporal and spatial patterns

The export of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) is a long-standing management concern for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of nutrient and sediment loads over the last three decades at multiple locations in the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), Chesapeake's largest tributary watershed. Sediment and nutrient riverine loadings, including both dissolved and particulate fractions, have generally declined at all sites upstream of Conowingo Dam (non-tidal SRB outlet). Period-of-record declines in riverine yield are generally smaller than those in source input, suggesting the possibility of legacy contributions. Consistent with other watershed studies, these results reinforce the importance of considering lag time between the implementation of management actions and achievement of river quality improvement. Whereas flow-normalized loadings for particulate species have increased recently below Conowingo Reservoir, those for upstream sites have declined, thus substantiating conclusions from prior studies about decreased reservoir trapping efficiency. In regard to streamflow effects, statistically significant log-linear relationships between annual streamflow and annual constituent load suggest the dominance of hydrological control on the inter-annual variability of constituent export. Concentration-discharge relationships revealed general chemostasis and mobilization effects for dissolved and particulate species, respectively, both suggesting transport-limitation conditions. In addition to affecting annual export rates, streamflow has also modulated the relative importance of dissolved and particulate fractions, as reflected by its negative correlations with dissolved P/total P, dissolved N/total N, particulate P/SS, and total N/total P ratios. For land-use effects, period-of-record median annual yields of N, P, and SS all correlate positively with the area fraction of non-forested land but negatively with that of forested land under all hydrological conditions. Overall, this work has informed understanding with respect to four major factors affecting constituent export ( i.e. , source input, reservoir modulation, streamflow, and land use) and demonstrated the value of long-term river monitoring.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania↗