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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2017

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow ( Peucaea aestivalis ), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

North Carolina↗
USGS2017

Benefits of the fire mitigation ecosystem service in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia, USA

The Great Dismal Swamp (GDS) National Wildlife Refuge delivers multiple ecosystem services, including air quality and human health via fire mitigation. Our analysis estimates benefits of this service through its potential to reduce catastrophic wildfire related impacts on the health of nearby human populations. We used a combination of high-frequency satellite data, ground sensors, and air quality indices to determine periods of public exposure to dense emissions from a wildfire within the GDS. We examined emergency department (ED) visitation in seven Virginia counties during these periods, applied measures of cumulative Relative Risk to derive the effects of wildfire smoke exposure on ED visitation rates, and estimated economic losses using regional Cost of Illness values established within the US Environmental Protection Agency BenMAP framework. Our results estimated the value of one avoided catastrophic wildfire in the refuge to be \$3.69 million (2015 USD), or \$306 per hectare of burn. Reducing the frequency or severity of extensive, deep burning peatland wildfire events has additional benefits not included in this estimate, including avoided costs related to fire suppression during a burn, carbon dioxide emissions, impacts to wildlife, and negative outcomes associated with recreation and regional tourism. We suggest the societal value of the public health benefits alone provides a significant incentive for refuge mangers to implement strategies that will reduce the severity of catastrophic wildfires.

North Carolina, Virginia↗
USGS2017

Riverine discharges to Chesapeake Bay: Analysis of long-term (1927–2014) records and implications for future flows in the Chesapeake Bay basin

The Chesapeake Bay (CB) basin is under a total maximum daily load (TMDL) mandate to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads to the bay. Identifying shifts in the hydro-climatic regime may help explain observed trends in water quality. To identify potential shifts, hydrologic data (1927–2014) for 27 watersheds in the CB basin were analyzed to determine the relationships among long-term precipitation and stream discharge trends. The amount, frequency, and intensity of precipitation increased from 1910 to 1996 in the eastern U.S., with the observed increases greater in the northeastern U.S. than the southeastern U.S. The CB watershed spans the north-to-south gradient in precipitation increases, and hydrologic differences have been observed in watersheds north relative to watersheds south of the Pennsylvania—Maryland (PA-MD) border. Time series of monthly mean precipitation data specific to each of 27 watersheds were derived from the Precipitation-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset, and monthly mean stream-discharge data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage records. All annual precipitation trend slopes in the 18 watersheds north of the PA-MD border were greater than or equal to those of the nine south of that border. The magnitude of the trend slopes for 1927–2014 in both precipitation and discharge decreased in a north-to-south pattern. Distributions of the monthly precipitation and discharge datasets were assembled into percentiles for each year for each watershed. Multivariate correlation of precipitation and discharge within percentiles among the groups of northern and southern watersheds indicated only weak associations. Regional-scale average behaviors of trends in the distribution of precipitation and discharge annual percentiles differed between the northern and southern watersheds. In general, the linkage between precipitation and discharge was weak, with the linkage weaker in the northern watersheds compared to those in the south. On the basis of simple linear regression, 26 of the 27 watersheds are projected to have higher annual mean discharge in 2025, the target date for implementation of the TMDL for the CB basin.

Chesapeake Bay Basin↗
USGS2018

Evaluating long-term patterns of decreasing groundwater discharge through a lake-bottom permeable reactive barrier

Identifying and quantifying groundwater exchange is critical when considering contaminant fate and transport at the groundwater/surface-water interface. In this paper, areally distributed temperature and point seepage measurements are used to efficiently assess spatial and temporal groundwater discharge patterns through a glacial-kettle lakebed area containing a zero-valent iron permeable reactive barrier (PRB). Concern was that the PRB was becoming less permeable with time owing to biogeochemical processes within the PRB. Patterns of groundwater discharge over an 8-year period were examined using fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) and snapshot-in-time point measurements of temperature. The resulting thermal maps show complex and uneven distributions of temperatures across the lakebed and highlight zones of rapid seepage near the shoreline and along the outer boundaries of the PRB. Repeated thermal mapping indicates an increase in lakebed temperatures over time at periods of similar stage and surface-water temperature. Flux rates in six seepage meters permanently installed on the lakebed in the PRB area decreased on average by 0.021 md -1 (or about 4.5 percent) annually between 2004 and 2015. Modeling of diurnal temperature signals from shallow vertical profiles yielded mean flux values ranging from 0.39 to 1.15 md -1 , with stronger fluxes generally related to colder lakebed temperatures. The combination of an increase in lakebed temperatures, declines in direct seepage, and observations of increased cementation of the lakebed surface provide in situ evidence that the permeability of the PRB is declining. The presence of temporally persistent rapid seepage zones is also discussed.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2018

A method to quantify and value floodplain sediment and nutrient retention ecosystem services

Floodplains provide critical ecosystem services to local and downstream communities by retaining floodwaters, sediments, and nutrients. The dynamic nature of floodplains is such that these areas can both accumulate sediment and nutrients through deposition, and export material downstream through erosion. Therefore, estimating floodplain sediment and nutrient retention should consider the net flux of both depositional and erosive processes. An ecosystem services framework was used to quantify and value the sediment and nutrient ecosystem service provided by floodplains in the Difficult Run watershed, a small (151 km 2 ) suburban watershed located in the Piedmont of Virginia (USA). A sediment balance was developed for Difficult Run and two nested watersheds. The balance included upland sediment delivery to streams, stream bank flux, floodplain flux, and stream load. Upland sediment delivery was estimated using geospatial datasets and a modified Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. Predictive models were developed to extrapolate field measurements of the flux of sediment, sediment-bound nitrogen (N), and sediment-bound phosphorus (P) from stream banks and floodplains to 3232 delineated stream segments in the study area. A replacement cost approach was used to estimate the economic value of the sediment and nutrient retention ecosystem service based on estimated net stream bank and floodplain flux of sediment-bound N for all streams in the study area. Results indicated the net fluvial fluxes of sediment, sediment-bound N, and sediment-bound P were −10,439 Mg yr −1 (net export), 57,300 kg-N yr −1 (net trapping), and 98 kg-P yr −1 (net trapping), respectively. For sediment, floodplain retention was offset by substantial losses from stream bank erosion, particularly in headwater catchments, resulting in a net export of sediment. Nutrient retention in the floodplain exceeded that lost through stream bank erosion resulting in net retention of nutrients (TN and TP). Using a conservative cost estimate of \$12.69 (USD) per kilogram of nitrogen, derived from wastewater treatment costs, the estimated annual value for sediment and nutrient retention on Difficult Run floodplains was \$727,226 ± 194,220 USD/yr. Values and differences in floodplain nitrogen retention among stream reaches can be used to target areas for floodplain conservation and stream restoration. The methods presented are scalable and transferable to other areas if appropriate datasets are available for validation.

Virginia↗
USGS2018

Canopy volume removal from oil and gas development activity in the upper Susquehanna River basin in Pennsylvania and New York (USA): An assessment using lidar data

Oil and gas development is changing the landscape in many regions of the United States and globally. However, the nature, extent, and magnitude of landscape change and development, and precisely how this development compares to other ongoing land conversion (e.g. urban/sub-urban development, timber harvest) is not well understood. In this study, we examine land conversion from oil and gas infrastructure development in the upper Susquehanna River basin in Pennsylvania and New York, an area that has experienced much oil and gas development over the past 10 years. We quantified land conversion in terms of forest canopy geometric volume loss in contrast to previous studies that considered only areal impacts. For the first time in a study of this type, we use fine-scale lidar forest canopy geometric models to assess the volumetric change due to forest clearing from oil and gas development and contrast this land change to clear cut forest harvesting, and urban and suburban development. Results show that oil and gas infrastructure development removed a large volume of forest canopy from 2006 to 2013, and this removal spread over a large portion of the study area. Timber operations (clear cutting) on Pennsylvania State Forest lands removed a larger total volume of forest canopy during the same time period, but this canopy removal was concentrated in a smaller area. Results of our study point to the need to consider volumetric impacts of oil and gas development on ecosystems, and to place potential impacts in context with other ongoing land conversions.

New York, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2019

Valuation of the flood attenuation ecosystem service in Difficult Run, VA, USA

Floodplains and riparian wetlands provide several ecosystem services that directly benefit people. We present a methodology for valuing the flood attenuation ecosystem service in Difficult Run, a suburban watershed with extensive natural floodplains in northern Virginia. High-resolution lidar-derived data were combined with GIS modeling techniques to produce estimates of flood inundation. We combined the modeled estimates with parcel-level property and primary economic data using a baseline and a counterfactual scenario to estimate the magnitude of flood attenuation and the associated value of the ecosystem service. Our framework brings new models and data to look at floodplains and an alternative land surface scenario in a way that has not previously been done. Annualized avoided property losses totaled $42,184 in the baseline scenario and $115,596 in the counterfactual scenario for the combined 200-, 100-, 50-, 20-, 10-, and 5-year flood events. We estimate the total annualized value of the flood attenuation ecosystem service in Difficult Run is $73,412, which is $77 per hectare of floodplain area and is consistent with similar valuation studies of floodplains. The framework presented here is not specific to the study area and could be deployed at larger spatial areas in other locations. Our methods may better inform land use decision making on the impacts of development in and surrounding floodplain areas.

Virginia↗
USGS2021

Until It's a regulation it's not my fight: Complexities of a voluntary nonlead hunting ammunition program

Wildlife and human health are at risk of lead exposure from spent hunting ammunition. Lead exposure persists for bald eagles due to bullet fragments in game animal gut piles and unretrieved carcasses, and is also a human health risk when wild game is procured using lead ammunition. Programs encouraging the voluntary use of nonlead ammunition have become a popular approach mitigating these effects. This study explored attitudes and experiences of United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) staff implementing an outreach program encouraging deer hunters to voluntary use nonlead ammunition on 54 National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the Upper Midwest, U.S. to understand factors affecting program implementation. We conducted 29 semi-structured interviews of USFWS staff along with 60 responses from an open-ended survey question. Twelve themes emerged from the data and were grouped into three broad categories: (1) challenges of dealing with complex issues, (2) importance of messengers and messages, and (3) resistance from staff. Challenges of dealing with complex issues included administrative restraint and uncertainty, scope and scale of program, human health not an agency responsibility, contextual political influences, and public-private collaborations. Importance of messengers and messages included the importance of experience, and salience of human health risk. Finally, resistance from staff included skepticism of the science and motives behind the program, competing priorities for refuge staff, differing perceptions of regulatory and voluntary approaches, cost and availability of nonlead ammunition, and disregard by some about lead ammunition and human health risks. Staff identified numerous challenges implementing the program, many of which were external factors beyond the control of the participants. Understanding the factors affecting program implementation may help guide future efforts encouraging the voluntary use of nonlead ammunition.

Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2021

Uncertainty in critical source area predictions from watershed-scale hydrologic models

Watershed-scale hydrologic models are frequently used to inform conservation and restoration efforts by identifying critical source areas (CSAs; alternatively 'hotspots'), defined as areas that export relatively greater quantities of nutrients and sediment. The CSAs can then be prioritized or ‘targeted’ for conservation and restoration to ensure efficient use of limited resources. However, CSA simulations from watershed-scale hydrologic models may be uncertain and it is critical that the extent and implications of this uncertainty be conveyed to stakeholders and decision makers. We used an ensemble of four independently developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models and a SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model to simulate CSA locations for flow, phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment within the ~17,000-km 2 Maumee River watershed at the HUC-12 scale. We then assessed uncertainty in CSA simulations determined as the variation in CSA locations across the models. Our application of an ensemble of models - differing with respect to inputs, structure, and parameterization - facilitated an improved accounting of CSA prediction uncertainty. We found that the models agreed on the location of a subset of CSAs, and that these locations may be targeted with relative confidence. However, models more often disagreed on CSA locations. On average, only 16%–46% of HUC-12 subwatersheds simulated as a CSA by one model were also simulated as a CSA by a different model. Our work shows that simulated CSA locations are highly uncertain and may vary substantially across models. Hence, while models may be useful in informing conservation and restoration planning, their application to identify CSA locations would benefit from comprehensive uncertainty analyses to avoid inefficient use of limited resources.

Ohio↗
USGS2021

Is there enough water? How bearish and bullish outlooks are linked to decision-maker perspectives on environmental flows

Policies that mandate environmental flows (e-flows) can be powerful tools for freshwater conservation, but implementation of these policies faces many hurdles. To better understand these challenges, we explored two key questions: (1) What additional data are needed to implement e-flows? and (2) What are the major socio-political barriers to implementing e-flows? We surveyed water and natural resource decision makers in the semi-arid Red River basin, Texas-Oklahoma, USA, and used social network analysis to analyze their communication patterns. Most respondents agreed that e-flows can provide important benefits and identified the same data needs. However, respondents sharply in their beliefs on other issues, and a clustering analysis revealed two distinct groups of decision makers. One cluster of decision makers tended to be bearish, or pessimistic, and believed that: current flow conditions are not adequate, there are many serious socio-political barriers to implementation, water conflicts will likely increase in the future, and climate change is likely to exacerbate these issues. The other cluster of respondents was bullish, or optimistic: they foresaw fewer future water conflicts and fewer socio-political barriers to implementation. Despite these differences, both clusters largely identified the same data needs and barriers to e-flows implementation. Our social network analysis revealed that the frequency of communication between clusters was not significantly different than the frequency of communication within clusters. Overall, our results suggest that the different perspectives of decision-makers could complicate efforts to implement e-flows and proactively plan for climate change. However, there are opportunities for collaboration on addressing common data needs and barriers to implementation. Overall, our study provides a key socio-environmental perspective on e-flows implementation from a semi-arid and socio-politically complex river basin and contextualizes the many challenges facing e-flows implementation in river basins globally.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2021

Exploring how vessel activity influences the soundscape at a navigation lock on the Mississippi River

Vessel sound is now globally recognized as a significant and pervasive pollutant to aquatic life. However, compared to marine environments, there is a paucity of data on sound emitted by vessel activity in freshwater habitats. The Upper Mississippi River (UMR) is home to a diverse array of aquatic life as well as being a key route for barge transportation with 29 locks and dams. In this study, passive acoustic monitoring was conducted at Lock and Dam 19 near Keokuk, Iowa, on the UMR between 20 June – August 28, 2019 to coincide with peak navigation use. There was a significant increase in median sound pressure level (SPL; 50–12,000 Hz) recorded during vessel passages (123 dB re. 1μPa for recreational vessels and 137 dB re. 1μPa for commercial vessels) compared to median background levels (111 dB re. 1μPa). Results provide information on the ambient soundscape at a navigation lock, providing a baseline essential for future studies gauging the effect of anthropogenic sound on aquatic life. Lock 19 has also been identified as a potential site for acoustic deterrent deployment to prevent invasive fish movements. The results of this study can help determine the sound level or frequency deterrents would need to emit, to avoid those currently produced during vessel passage.

Illinois, Iowa↗
USGS2021

Sediment transport, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen responses to annual streambed drawdowns for downstream fish passage in a flood control reservoir

Sediment transport, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen were evaluated during six consecutive water years (2013–2018) of drawdowns of a flood control reservoir in the upper Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The drawdowns were conducted to allow volitional passage of endangered juvenile chinook salmon through the dam's regulating outlets by lowering the reservoir elevation to a point where the historical streambed was exposed and transported water and sediment through the reservoir dam. Sediment loads during the drawdown were highest in the first year of monitoring, with a computed value of 40,200 metric tons over a 5-day drawdown, followed by 5 years of lower sediment loads and lower sediment transport rates, suggesting that much of the stored sediment within the reservoir thalweg was transported out of the reservoir in the early years of the consecutive drawdowns. Suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) computed using turbidity and streamflow data resulted in maximum SSC at the onset of the drawdowns, with the highest computed values occurring during the water year 2017 drawdown at 17,500 mg/L (turbidity = 2,990 FNU), and average drawdown SSC values ranging from 654 to 3,950 mg/L for the six years of monitoring. Computed SSC were on the lower range of concentrations that could be harmful to out-migrating juvenile salmon published in other studies. High amounts of particulate organic matter and sand-sized material in drawdown SSC samples affected relations between turbidity and SSC, requiring the use of multiple surrogate regression models over short time frames. Dissolved oxygen minimum values were recorded in two of the monitoring years, with a minimum value of 0.71 and 3.4 mg/L recorded at the onset of the drawdowns in water years 2016 and 2018, respectively. Dissolved oxygen values below 4 mg/L lasted for 1 h, suggesting a rapidly expressed chemical oxygen demand. The response of suspended sediment loads and SSC highlight the site-specific nature of reservoir drawdowns, and the need for evaluation of expected sediment responses for drawdowns being considered at other locations.

Oregon↗
USGS2022

Local environment and individuals’ beliefs: The dynamics shaping public support for sustainability policy in an agricultural landscape

Agricultural landscapes are the bleeding-edge in the advancement of sustainability and climate change adaptation. Our study focuses on how individual support for sustainability policy is shaped in coupled natural and human systems. We present an agent-based model in which a cultural decision-rule quantifies the probability that a stakeholder decides to support an easement policy for a region in the Central Great Plains, USA. Our model defines a cultural threshold used to assess how culturally meaningful the policy is for each stakeholder. The individual cultural threshold is estimated using the value-belief-norm framework and is modified by perceived changes in the environment. Results demonstrated that few stakeholders support the policy in the average cultural setting (8.9%). However, enough stakeholders would support the policy under a lower cultural threshold (40.7%). Our results indicate that sustainability policies do not need to be cheap if they are culturally meaningful.

Kansas↗
USGS2023

Four decades of regional wet deposition, local bulk deposition, and stream-water chemistry show the influence of nearby land use on forested streams in Central Appalachia☆

Hydrologic monitoring began on two headwater streams (<1 km 2 ) on the University of Kentucky's Robinson Forest in 1971. We evaluated stream-water (1974–2013) and bulk-deposition (wet + dust) (1984–2013) chemistry in the context of regional wet-deposition patterns that showed decreases in both sulfate and nitrate concentrations as well as proximal surface-mine expansion. Decadal time steps (1974–83, 1984–93, 1994–2003, 2004–2013) were used to quantify change. Comparison of the first two decades showed similarly decreased sulfate (minimum flow-adjusted annual-mean concentration of ≈13.5 mg/L in 1982 to 8.8 mg/L in 1992) and increased pH (6.6–6.8) in both streams, reflecting contemporaneous changes in both bulk and wet deposition. In contrast, concentrations of nitrate (0.14 to >0.25 mg/L) and base cations increased between these two decades, coinciding with expansion of surface mining between 1985 and 1995. In 2004, stream-water pH (6.7 in 2004), sulfate (9.2 mg/L), and nitrate (>0.11 mg/L) were similar to 1982, despite wet-deposition concentrations being lower. Base-cation concentrations were higher in the stream adjacent to ongoing surface mining relative to the stream situated near the middle of the experimental forest. However, pH decreased to approximately 5.7 by 2013 for both streams, which, combined with a shift in dominant cations from calcium to magnesium and potassium, indicates that the soil-buffering capacity of this landscape has been exceeded. Ratios of bulk deposition and stream-water concentrations indicate enrichment of sulfate (1.7–25.2) and cations (0.5–64.8), but not nitrogen (0.1–5.6), indicating that the Forest is not nitrogen saturated and that ongoing changes in water-quality are sulfate driven. When concentrations were adjusted to account for changes in streamflow (climate) over the 4 decades, external influences (land management/regulation) explained most change. The amount and direction of change differed among constituents, both between consecutive decades and between the first and last decades, reflecting the influence of localized surface mining even as regional wet deposition continued to improve due to the Clean Air Act. The implication is that localized stressors have the potential to out-pace the benefits of national environmental policies for communities that depend on local water-resources in similar environments.

Kentucky↗
USGS2023

Water-soluble organic carbon release from mineral soils and sediments in an irrigated agricultural system

Water interactions with soil and vegetation are greatly altered in agricultural watersheds compared to natural landscapes, which impacts sources and fates of organic carbon (OC). While mineral soil horizons in natural ecosystems primarily act as filters for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leached from organic surface horizons, tilled soils largely lack an organic horizon and their mineral horizons therefore act as a source for both DOC and sediment to surface waters. Irrigated watersheds highlight this difference, as DOC and total suspended sediment (TSS) concentrations simultaneously increase during the low-discharge irrigation season, suggesting that sediment-associated OC may constitute a significant source of DOC. While water-soluble OC (WSOC) from sediments and soils has been found to be compositionally similar to stream DOC, these contributions remain poorly quantified in agricultural streams. To address this, we conducted abiotic solubilization experiments using sediments (suspended and bed) and soils from an irrigated agricultural watershed in northern California, USA. Sediments (R 2 > 0.99) and soils (0.74 < R 2 < 0.89) displayed linear solubilization behaviors over the range of concentrations tested. Suspended sediment from the irrigation season exhibited the largest solubilization efficiency (10.9 ± 1.6% TOC sediment solubilized) and potential (1.79 ± 0.26 mg WSOC g −1 dry sediment), followed by suspended sediment from a winter storm, then bed sediment and soils. Successive solubilization experiments increased the total release of WSOC by ∼50%, but most (88–97%) of the solid-phase OC remained insoluble in water. Using these solubilization potential estimates and measured TSS concentrations, we estimated that WSOC from suspended sediment in streams represented 4–7% of the annual DOC export from the watershed. However, field sediment export is much higher than what is represented by suspended sediment in the water column, therefore field-scale contributions from sediments could be much higher than estimated.

California↗
USGS2024

Strategic restoration planning for land birds in the Colorado River Delta, Mexico

Ecological restoration is an essential strategy for mitigating the current biodiversity crisis, yet restoration actions are costly. We used systematic conservation planning principles to design an approach that prioritizes restoration sites for birds and tested it in a riparian forest restoration program in the Colorado River Delta. Restoration goals were to maximize the abundance and diversity of 15 priority birds with a variety of habitat preferences. We built abundance models for priority birds based on the current landscape, and predicted bird distributions and relative abundances under a scenario of complete riparian forest restoration throughout our study area. Then, we used Zonation conservation planning software to rank this restored landscape based on core areas for all priority birds. The locations with the highest ranks represented the highest priorities for restoration and were located throughout the river reach. We optimized how much of the available landscape to restore by simulating restoration of the top 10–90% of ranked sites in 10% intervals. We found that total diversity was maximized when 40% of the landscape was restored, and mean relative abundance was maximized when 80% of the landscape was restored. The results suggest that complete restoration is not optimal for this community of priority birds and restoration of approximately 60% of the landscape would provide a balance between maximum relative abundance and diversity. Subsequent planning efforts will combine our results with an assessment of restoration costs to provide further decision support for the restoration-siting process. Our approach can be applied to any landscape-scale restoration program to improve the return on investment of limited economic resources for restoration.

Colorado River Delta↗
USGS2024

Will there be water? Climate change, housing needs, and future water demand in California

Climate change in California is expected to alter future water availability, impacting water supplies needed to support future housing growth and agriculture demand. In groundwater-dependent regions like California's Central Coast, new land-use related water demand and decreasing recharge is already stressing depleted groundwater basins. We developed a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model that integrates climate, land-use change, water demand, and groundwater gain-loss to examine the impact of future climate and land use change on groundwater balance and water demand in five counties along the Central Coast from 2010 to 2060. The model incorporated downscaled groundwater recharge projections based on a Warm/Wet and a Hot/Dry climate future from a spatially explicit hydrological process-based model. Two urbanization projections from a parcel-based, regional urban growth model representing 1) recent historical and 2) state-mandated housing growth projections were used as alternative spatial targets for future urban growth. Agricultural projections were based on recent historical trends from remote sensing data. Annual projected changes in groundwater balance were calculated as the difference between land-use related water demand, based on historical estimates, and climate-driven recharge plus agriculture return flows. Results indicate that future changes in climate-driven groundwater recharge, coupled with cumulative increases in agricultural water demand, result in overall declines in future groundwater balance, with a Hot/Dry future resulting in cumulative groundwater decline in all but Santa Cruz County. Cumulative declines by 2060 are especially prominent in San Luis Obispo (−2.9 to −5.1 Bm 3 ) and Monterey counties (−6.5 to −8.7 Bm 3 ), despite limited changes in agricultural water demand over the model period. These two counties show declining groundwater reserves in a Warm/Wet future as well, while San Benito and Santa Barbara County barely reach equilibrium. These results suggest future groundwater supplies may not be able to keep pace with regional demand and declining climate-driven recharge, resulting in a potential reduction in water security in the region. However, our county-scale projections showed new housing and associated water demand does not conflict with California's groundwater sustainability goals. Rather, future climate coupled with increasing agricultural groundwater demand may reduce water security in some counties, potentially limiting available groundwater supplies for new housing.

California↗
USGS2024

Economic losses to inland recreational fisheries from harmful algal blooms

This paper presents research on the recreational impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and other water quality changes in the U.S. heartland. We examine the link between recreational fishing and water quality using a random utility model of reservoir choices, and data on effort and health-based advisories for reservoirs in Nebraska. We find that advisories linked specifically to algal blooms affect the demand for and value of fishing, and that these effects are heterogeneous. The estimated welfare loss at HAB-afflicted reservoirs is approximately $12 per trip, with larger losses experienced by gamefish-oriented and college-educated fishers.

Journal of Environmental Management↗