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144 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS1999

The influence of sampling interval on the accuracy of trail impact assessment

Trail impact assessment and monitoring (IA&M) programs have been growing in importance and application in recreation resource management at protected areas. Census-based and sampling-based approaches have been developed in such programs, with systematic point sampling being the most common survey design. This paper examines the influence of sampling interval on the accuracy of estimates for selected trail impact problems. A complete census of four impact types on 70 trails in Great Smoky Mountains National Park was utilized as the base data set for the analyses. The census data were resampled at increasing intervals to create a series of simulated point data sets. Estimates of frequency of occurrence and lineal extent for the four impact types were compared with the census data set. The responses of accuracy loss on lineal extent estimates to increasing sampling intervals varied across different impact types, while the responses on frequency of occurrence estimates were consistent, approximating an inverse asymptotic curve. These findings suggest that systematic point sampling may be an appropriate method for estimating the lineal extent but not the frequency of trail impacts. Sample intervals of less than 100 m appear to yield an excellent level of accuracy for the four impact types evaluated. Multiple regression analysis results suggest that appropriate sampling intervals are more likely to be determined by the type of impact in question rather than the length of trail. The census-based trail survey and the resampling-simulation method developed in this study can be a valuable first step in establishing long-term trail IA&M programs, in which an optimal sampling interval range with acceptable accuracy is determined before investing efforts in data collection.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗
USGS1983

Water resources of the Tulalip Indian Reservation, Washington

Water will play a significant role in the future development of the Tulalip Indian Reservation. Ground-water resources are sufficient to supply several times the 1978 population. Potential problems associated with increased ground-water development are saltwater encroachment in the coastal areas and septic-tank contamination of shallow aquifers. There are sufficient good-quality surface-water resources to allow for significant expansion of the tribe)s fisheries activities. The tribal well field is the only place where the ground-water system has been stressed) resulting in declining water levels (1,5 feet per year), The well field has a useful life of at least 1.5-20 years, This can be increased by drilling additional wells to expand the present well field, Inflow of water to the reservation is in the form of precipitation (103 cubic feet per second) ft3/s)) surface-water inflow (13 ft3/s)) and ground-water inflow (4 ft3/s), Outflow is as evapotranspiration (62 ft3/s)) surface-water outflow (40 ft3/s)) and ground-water outflow (18 ft3/s), Total inflow and outflow are equal (120 ft3/s). Ground water is generally suitable for domestic use without treatment) but a serious quality problem is the presence of coliform bacteria in some shallow wells, High values of turbidity and color and large concentrations of iron and manganese are common problems regarding the esthetic quality of the water, In a few places, large concentrations of chloride and dissolved solids indicate the possibility of saltwater encroachment, but no ongoing trend has been identified, Surface waters have been observed to contain undesirably high concentrations of total phosphorus and total and fecal-coliform bacteria) and to have temperatures too high for fish-rearing. The concentration of nutrients appears to be related to flow conditions. Nitrate and total nitrogen are greater in wet-season runoff than during low-flow periods) and total phosphorus shows an inverse relationship. Total phosphorus and ammonia concentrations are greatest in dry-season storm runoff. Generally) surface-water quality is adequate for fish-rearing and (with treatment) for public supply,

Open-File Report↗
USGS2016

Geology, selected geophysics, and hydrogeology of the White River and parts of the Great Salt Lake Desert regional groundwater flow systems, Utah and Nevada

The east-central Great Basin near the Utah-Nevada border contains two great groundwater flow systems. The first, the White River regional groundwater flow system, consists of a string of hydraulically connected hydrographic basins in Nevada spanning about 270 miles from north to south. The northernmost basin is Long Valley and the southernmost basin is the Black Mountain area, a valley bordering the Colorado River. The general regional groundwater flow direction is north to south. The second flow system, the Great Salt Lake Desert regional groundwater flow system, consists of hydrographic basins that straddle the Utah-Nevada border, with a length of about 150 miles from north to south. The general regional groundwater flow direction is from south to north towards the Great Salt Lake Desert. For 15 years with support from the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA), hydrologists, geologists, and geophysicists studied the basin connections and the groundwater resources in these and adjacent flow systems over an area of about 25,000 square miles. A major first part of the SNWA study was constructing a 3-dimensional digital hydrogeologic framework based on geologic maps and cross sections at 1:250,000 scale. This framework documents the presence of three major aquifers: (1) Paleozoic carbonate rocks, (2) Eocene to Miocene volcanic rocks, and (3) Miocene to Holocene basin-fill sediments, as well as confining units that constrain flow. We interpret that movement of most groundwater through and across basins is by fracture-dominated flow along faults/fractures, yet in most places flow is prevented or retarded across faults, so mapping structures gives a first approximation to conduits and barriers to flow. The most important structures by far are high-angle normal faults of the basin-range episode of east-west extensional deformation. This event began at about 20 Ma, although most deformation and the formation of the present topography took place between 10 Ma and present. This topography consists of north-trending basins (mostly grabens) that alternate with north- trending ranges (mostly horsts); erosion of the ranges filled the basins with clastic alluvial basin-fill deposits. Geophysics provides data on the third dimension (cross sections) of the hydrogeologic framework. Audiomagnetotelluric profiles and gravity inversion located faults and enabled us to estimate thicknesses of basin-fill deposits. To this framework, hydrologic studies addressed precipitation, surface water, and springs, as well as groundwater levels, volumes, geochemistry, water budgets, and monitoring. At nearly the same time as our study, the Utah Geological Survey (UGS) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) addressed the same issues in many of the same areas, and publication of the efforts by all three agencies reveals a surprising similarity of conclusions, with some critical exceptions, which therefore demonstrates the great value of many scientists independently studying the same complex scientific problem. The differences in conclusions include directions and volumes of some ground- water flow paths, such as one proposed by the USGS of unlikely groundwater flow from Steptoe Valley to southern Snake Valley, and another proposed by the UGS of unlikely significant groundwater recharge flow from the Snake Range to the Fish Springs complex.

Utah↗
USGS2003

Inverse modeling of interbed storage parameters using land subsidence observations, Antelope Valley, California

We use land-subsidence observations from repeatedly surveyed benchmarks and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) in Antelope Valley, California, to estimate spatially varying compaction time constants, ??, and inelastic specific skeletal storage coefficients, Skv*, in a previously calibrated regional groundwater flow and subsidence model. The observed subsidence patterns reflect both the spatial distribution of head declines and the spatially variable inelastic skeletal storage coefficient. Using the nonlinear parameter estimation program UCODE we estimate compaction time constants between 3.8 and 285 years. The Skv* values are estimated by linear estimation and range from 0 to almost 0.09. We find that subsidence observations over long time periods are necessary to constrain estimates of the large compaction time constants in Antelope Valley. The InSAR data used in this study cover only a three-year period, limiting their usefulness in constraining these time constants. This problem will be alleviated as more SAR data become available in the future or where time constants are small. By incorporating the resulting parameter estimates in the previously calibrated regional model of groundwater flow and land subsidence we can significantly improve the agreement between simulated and observed land subsidence both in terms of magnitude and spatial extent. The sum of weighted squared subsidence residuals, a common measure of model fit, was reduced by 73% with respect to the original model. However, the ability of the model to adequately reproduce the subsidence observed over only a few years is impaired by the fact that the simulated hydraulic heads over small time periods are often not representative of the actual aquifer hydraulic heads. Errors in the simulated hydraulic aquifer heads constitute the primary limitation of the approach presented here.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS1996

Calculation of earthquake rupture histories using a hybrid global search algorithm: Application to the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

A method is presented for the simultaneous calculation of slip amplitudes and rupture times for a finite fault using a hybrid global search algorithm. The method we use combines simulated annealing with the downhill simplex method to produce a more efficient search algorithm then either of the two constituent parts. This formulation has advantages over traditional iterative or linearized approaches to the problem because it is able to escape local minima in its search through model space for the global optimum. We apply this global search method to the calculation of the rupture history for the Landers, California, earthquake. The rupture is modeled using three separate finite-fault planes to represent the three main fault segments that failed during this earthquake. Both the slip amplitude and the time of slip are calculated for a grid work of subfaults. The data used consist of digital, teleseismic P and SH body waves. Long-period, broadband, and short-period records are utilized to obtain a wideband characterization of the source. The results of the global search inversion are compared with a more traditional linear-least-squares inversion for only slip amplitudes. We use a multi-time-window linear analysis to relax the constraints on rupture time and rise time in the least-squares inversion. Both inversions produce similar slip distributions, although the linear-least-squares solution has a 10% larger moment (7.3 ?? 1026 dyne-cm compared with 6.6 ?? 1026 dyne-cm). Both inversions fit the data equally well and point out the importance of (1) using a parameterization with sufficient spatial and temporal flexibility to encompass likely complexities in the rupture process, (2) including suitable physically based constraints on the inversion to reduce instabilities in the solution, and (3) focusing on those robust rupture characteristics that rise above the details of the parameterization and data set.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗
USGS2014

Simulation of water-table aquifers using specified saturated thickness

Simulating groundwater flow in a water-table (unconfined) aquifer can be difficult because the saturated thickness available for flow depends on model-calculated hydraulic heads. It is often possible to realize substantial time savings and still obtain accurate head and flow solutions by specifying an approximate saturated thickness a priori, thus linearizing this aspect of the model. This specified-thickness approximation often relies on the use of the “confined” option in numerical models, which has led to confusion and criticism of the method. This article reviews the theoretical basis for the specified-thickness approximation, derives an error analysis for relatively ideal problems, and illustrates the utility of the approximation with a complex test problem. In the transient version of our complex test problem, the specified-thickness approximation produced maximum errors in computed drawdown of about 4% of initial aquifer saturated thickness even when maximum drawdowns were nearly 20% of initial saturated thickness. In the final steady-state version, the approximation produced maximum errors in computed drawdown of about 20% of initial aquifer saturated thickness (mean errors of about 5%) when maximum drawdowns were about 35% of initial saturated thickness. In early phases of model development, such as during initial model calibration efforts, the specified-thickness approximation can be a very effective tool to facilitate convergence. The reduced execution time and increased stability obtained through the approximation can be especially useful when many model runs are required, such as during inverse model calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, multimodel analysis, and development of optimal resource management scenarios.

Ground Water↗
USGS2026

Unraveling protracted modification of Archean and Paleoproterozoic crust in central Laurentia, Penokean orogen, with garnet and accessory mineral geochronology and microstructural analysis

Proterozoic metamorphism and deformation of the southern margin of the Superior craton in the Lake Superior region is attributed to the Penokean orogeny (1890−1830 Ma). This model includes a period of crustal inversion in which Archean basement blocks were exhumed through overlying Paleoproterozoic strata, producing the corridor of gneiss domes that parallels the trend of the Penokean orogen across the northern Midcontinent, USA. However, recent geologic mapping and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology challenge this interpretation, suggesting instead that the gneiss dome structures reflect younger episodes of tectonic activity along the southern margin of Laurentia. In absence of integrated pressure-temperature-time-deformation constraints for these rocks, interpretations are largely limited to their final cooling history, making it difficult to both identify the tectonic forces that shaped the architecture of the Penokean orogenic belt and assess the extent to which later Proterozoic tectonism modified the southern Superior craton. We address this problem with an approach joining thermodynamic modeling, garnet and accessory mineral geochronology, and microstructural analysis for several metamorphic rocks across the gneiss dome corridor. The U-Pb ages of titanite reveal that the Proterozoic geometries of exhumed basement gneiss domes are governed by preexisting Archean structures. Garnet Lu-Hf geochronology constrains the timing of prograde-to-peak metamorphism in the Penokean orogenic belt. Granulite facies metamorphism is related to the final stages of the Penokean orogeny at 1837 Ma and localized in a belt of high-grade rocks near a major Penokean suture. Garnet Lu-Hf ages of samples adjacent to gneiss domes reflect regional metamorphism following the accretionary phase of the Penokean orogeny, between 1825 Ma and 1782 Ma, which we suggest reflects continued crustal thickening related to convergence farther south during this time interval. Combination of garnet microstructures and Sm-Nd ages reflects later exhumation of gneiss domes and buried metasedimentary rocks by ca. 1750 Ma, consistent with previously published 40 Ar/ 39 Ar cooling ages across the region. Reset Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd garnet ages and U-Pb ages of syn-kinematic titanite reflect reactivation of primary Penokean structures during this period of basement uplift. These data document significant modification of the Penokean orogen and the Archean crust of the southern Superior province between 1800 Ma and 1700 Ma. Tectonic activity during this interval coincides with collisional events recognized in western Laurentia, suggesting that the period immediately following the Penokean orogeny may be a broadly important time for crustal growth and modification in proto-North America.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2020

Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: PEST++ Version 5, a software suite for parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis, management optimization and sensitivity analysis

PEST++ Version 5 extends and enhances the functionality of the PEST++ Version 3 software suite, providing environmental modeling practitioners access to updated Version 3 tools as well as new tools to support decision making with environmental models. Version 5 of PEST++ includes tools for global sensitivity analysis (PESTPP-SEN); least-squares parameter estimation with integrated first-order, second-moment parameter and forecast uncertainty estimation (PESTPP-GLM); an iterative, localized ensemble smoother (PESTPP-IES); and a tool for management optimization under uncertainty (PESTPP-OPT). Additionally, all PEST++ Version 5 tools have a built-in fault-tolerant, multithreaded parallel run manager and are model independent, using the same protocol as the widely used PEST software suite. PEST++ Version 5 is consistent with PEST++ Version 3 conventions and design philosophy. The software’s emphasis continues to target efficient and optimized algorithms that have proven beneficial in decision-support settings and can accommodate large, highly parameterized problems. Expanded and new capabilities are now available to express uncertainty using Monte Carlo and analytical uncertainty approaches and allow evaluation of thousands to millions of parameters. New management optimization capabilities in Version 5 also allow environmental models to be used to answer management questions using multiple societal constraints in a risk-based framework. The PEST++ Version 5 software suite can be compiled for Microsoft Windows® and Unix-based operating systems such as Apple and Linux®; the source code is available with a Microsoft Visual Studio® 2019 solution; and CMake support for all three operating system is also provided. PEST++ Version 5 continues to build a foundation for an open-source framework capable of producing model-independent, robust, and efficient decision-support tools for large environmental models. The functionality of each of the PEST++ tools are demonstrated on a simple example problem. Implications of decisions used when using the PEST++ suite tools are also discussed.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS1988

Relation of trihalomethane-formation potential to water-quality and physical characteristics of small water-supply lakes, eastern Kansas

The formation of carcinogenic trihalomethanes during the treatment of public surface water supplies has become a potentially serious problem. The U. S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Health and Environment , investigated the potential for trihalomethane formation in water from 15 small, public water supply lakes in eastern Kansas from April 1984 through April 1986 in order to define the principal factors that affect or control the potential for trihalomethane formation during the water treatment process. Relations of mean concentrations of trihalomethane-formation potential to selected water quality and lake and watershed physical characteristics were investigated using correlation and regression analysis. Statistically significant, direct relations were developed between trihalomethanes produced in unfiltered and filtered lake water and mean concentrations of total and dissolved organic carbon. Correlation coefficients for these relations ranged from 0.86 to 0.93. Mean values of maximum depth of lake were shown to have statistically significant inverse relations to mean concentrations of trihalomethane-formation potential and total and dissolved organic carbon. Correlation coefficients for these relations ranged from -0.76 to -0.81.

Kansas↗
USGS2006

Does predator management enhance survival of reintroduced black-footed ferrets?

Predation on black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes) is a potential problem at reintroduction sites, causing up to 95 percent of the documented mortality of ferrets. Strategies to reduce mortality due to predation can focus on preconditioning ferrets prior to reintroduction and/or managing predators of ferrets. Biologists have tried three general strategies to control predators at reintroduction sites: (1) selective removal of individual predators, (2) nonselective removal of coyotes (Canis latrans), and (3) electric fences to exclude coyotes from release sites. We conducted a post hoc review of data from releases during 1994–2003 at 11 sites in South Dakota and Montana to address whether or not predator management has benefited reintroduced black-footed ferrets. Limited evidence indicates that (1) individual great horned owls (Bubo virginianus) can cause significant ferret mortality and that identifying and removing these individuals can be beneficial, (2) lethal control of coyotes may have inverse effects on ferret survival, and (3) electric fencing does not enhance short- or long-term survival of reintroduced ferrets. The data are confounded by a variety of factors, making conclusions tenuous. Well designed studies are needed to properly address the effectiveness of predator management for enhancing ferret survival.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2010

Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: A guide to using PEST for model-parameter and predictive-uncertainty analysis

Analysis of the uncertainty associated with parameters used by a numerical model, and with predictions that depend on those parameters, is fundamental to the use of modeling in support of decisionmaking. Unfortunately, predictive uncertainty analysis with regard to models can be very computationally demanding, due in part to complex constraints on parameters that arise from expert knowledge of system properties on the one hand (knowledge constraints) and from the necessity for the model parameters to assume values that allow the model to reproduce historical system behavior on the other hand (calibration constraints). Enforcement of knowledge and calibration constraints on parameters used by a model does not eliminate the uncertainty in those parameters. In fact, in many cases, enforcement of calibration constraints simply reduces the uncertainties associated with a number of broad-scale combinations of model parameters that collectively describe spatially averaged system properties. The uncertainties associated with other combinations of parameters, especially those that pertain to small-scale parameter heterogeneity, may not be reduced through the calibration process. To the extent that a prediction depends on system-property detail, its postcalibration variability may be reduced very little, if at all, by applying calibration constraints; knowledge constraints remain the only limits on the variability of predictions that depend on such detail. Regrettably, in many common modeling applications, these constraints are weak. Though the PEST software suite was initially developed as a tool for model calibration, recent developments have focused on the evaluation of model-parameter and predictive uncertainty. As a complement to functionality that it provides for highly parameterized inversion (calibration) by means of formal mathematical regularization techniques, the PEST suite provides utilities for linear and nonlinear error-variance and uncertainty analysis in these highly parameterized modeling contexts. Availability of these utilities is particularly important because, in many cases, a significant proportion of the uncertainty associated with model parameters-and the predictions that depend on them-arises from differences between the complex properties of the real world and the simplified representation of those properties that is expressed by the calibrated model. This report is intended to guide intermediate to advanced modelers in the use of capabilities available with the PEST suite of programs for evaluating model predictive error and uncertainty. A brief theoretical background is presented on sources of parameter and predictive uncertainty and on the means for evaluating this uncertainty. Applications of PEST tools are then discussed for overdetermined and underdetermined problems, both linear and nonlinear. PEST tools for calculating contributions to model predictive uncertainty, as well as optimization of data acquisition for reducing parameter and predictive uncertainty, are presented. The appendixes list the relevant PEST variables, files, and utilities required for the analyses described in the document.

Michigan↗
USGS1996

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Investigation of rupture velocity, risetime, and high-frequency radiation

A hybrid global search algorithm is used to solve the nonlinear problem of calculating slip amplitude, rake, risetime, and rupture time on a finite fault. Thirty-five strong motion velocity records are inverted by this method over the frequency band from 0.1 to 1.0 Hz for the Northridge earthquake. Four regions of larger-amplitude slip are identified: one near the hypocenter at a depth of 17 km, a second west of the hypocenter at about the same depth, a third updip from the hypocenter at a depth of 10 km, and a fourth updip from the hypocenter and to the northwest. The results further show an initial fast rupture with a velocity of 2.8 to 3.0 km/s followed by a slow termination of the rupture with velocities of 2.0 to 2.5 km/s. The initial energetic rupture phase lasts for 3 s, extending out 10 km from the hypocenter. Slip near the hypocenter has a short risetime of 0.5 s, which increases to 1.5 s for the major slip areas removed from the hypocentral region. The energetic rupture phase is also shown to be the primary source of high-frequency radiation (1–15 Hz) by an inversion of acceleration envelopes. The same global search algorithm is used in the envelope inversion to calculate high-frequency radiation intensity on the fault and rupture time. The rupture timing from the low- and high-frequency inversions is similar, indicating that the high frequencies are produced primarily at the mainshock rupture front. Two major sources of high-frequency radiation are identified within the energetic rupture phase, one at the hypocenter and another deep source to the west of the hypocenter. The source at the hypocenter is associated with the initiation of rupture and the breaking of a high-stress-drop asperity and the second is associated with stopping of the rupture in a westerly direction.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2006

Development and application of a screening model for simulating regional ground-water flow in the St. Croix River basin, Minnesota and Wisconsin

A series of databases and an accompanying screening model were constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, to better understand the regional ground-water-flow system and its relation to stream drainage in the St. Croix River Basin. The St. Croix River and its tributaries drain about 8,000 square miles in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. The databases contain information for the entire St. Croix River Basin pertaining to well logs, lithology, thickness of lithologic groups, ground-water levels, streamflow, and well pumpage. Maps and generalized cross sections created from the compiled data show the lithologic groups, extending from the water table to the crystalline bedrock, through which ground water flows. These lithologic groups are: fine-grained unconsolidated deposits; coarse-grained unconsolidated deposits; sandstone bedrock; carbonate bedrock; and other bedrock lithologies including shale, siltstone, conglomerate, and igneous intrusions. The steady-state screening model treats the ground-water-flow system as a single layer with transmissivity zones that reflect the distribution of lithologic groups, and with recharge zones that correspond to general areas of high or low evapotranspiration. The model includes representation of second- and higher-order streams and municipal and other high-capacity production wells. The analytic-element model code GFLOW was used to simulate the regional ground-water flow, the water-table surface across the St. Croix River Basin, and base-flow contributions from ground water to streams. In addition, the model routes tributary base flow through the stream network to the St. Croix River. The parameter-estimation inverse model UCODE was linked to the GFLOW model to select the combination of parameter values best able to match over 5,000 water-level measurements and base-flow estimates at 22 streamflow-gaging stations. Results from the calibrated screening model show ground-water contributing areas for selected stream reaches within the basin. The delineation of these areas is useful to water-resource managers concerned with protection of fisheries and other resources. The model results also identify the areas of the basin where ground-water travel time from the water table to streams and wells is relatively short (less than 50 years). Ninety percent of the simulated ground-water pathlines require travel times between 3 and 260 years. The median pathline distance traversed and the median pathline velocity were 1.7 mi and 177 ft/y, respectively. It is important to recognize the limitations of this screening model. Heterogeneities in subsurface properties and in recharge rates are considered only at a very broad scale (miles to tens of miles). No account is taken of vertical variations in properties or pumping rates, and no provision is made to account for stacked ground-water-flow systems that have different flow patterns at different depths. Small-scale (hundreds to thousands of feet) flow systems associated with minor water bodies are neglected, and as a result, the model is not useful for simulating typical site-specific problems. Despite its limitations, the model serves as a framework for understanding the regional pattern of ground-water flow and as a starting point for a generation of more targeted and detailed ground-water models that would be needed to address emerging water-supply and water-quality concerns in the St. Croix River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2003

Relations of biological indicators to nutrient data for lakes and streams in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, 1990-98

The Clean Water Action Plan of 1998 provides a blueprint for federal agencies to work with states, tribes, and other stakeholders to protect and restore the Nation's water resources. The plan includes an initiative that addresses the nutrient-enrichment problem of lakes and streams across the United States. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is working to set nutrient criteria by nationwide nutrient ecoregions that are an aggregation of the Omernik level III ecoregions. Because low levels of nutrients are necessary for healthy streams and elevated concentrations can cause algal blooms that deplete available oxygen and kill off aquatic organisms, criteria levels are to be set, in part, using the relation between chlorophyll a and concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus. Data from Pennsylvania and West Virginia, collected between 1990 and 1998, were analyzed for relations between chlorophyll a , nutrients, and other explanatory variables. Both phytoplankton and periphyton chlorophyll a concentrations from lakes and streams were analyzed separately within each of the USEPA nutrient ecoregions located within the boundaries of the two states. These four nutrient ecoregions are VII (Mostly Glaciated Dairy), VIII (Nutrient Poor, Largely Glaciated Upper Midwest and Northeast), IX (Southeastern Temperate Forested Plains and Hills), and XI (Central and Eastern Forested Uplands). Phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations in lakes were related to total nitrogen, total phosphorus, Secchi depth, concentration of dissolved oxygen, pH, water temperature, and specific conductivity. In nutrient ecoregion VII, nutrients were not significant predictors of chlorophyll a concentrations. Total nitrogen, Secchi depth, and pH were significantly related to phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations in nutrient ecoregion IX. Lake periphyton chlorophyll a concentrations from nutrient ecoregion XI were related to total phosphorus rather than total nitrogen, Secchi depth, and pH. In all cases, Secchi depth was inversely related to the chlorophyll a concentrations in a lake. Nutrient ecoregion VIII had too few samples for any type of analysis. Streams within the different nutrient ecoregions had many variables that were significantly related to periphyton chlorophyll a concentrations. These variables consisted of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, drainage area, percent forest cover, several macroinvertebrate indices, pH, basin slope, total residue, total suspended solids, and water temperature. Nutrients were not significantly related to periphyton chlorophyll a in streams within nutrient ecoregions VII or IX but were in nutrient ecoregion XI. Drainage area, percent forest cover, and several invertebrate indices were significant variables in nutrient ecoregion VII. Percent forest cover and several invertebrate indices had a negative relation with chlorophyll a concentrations in these streams. Percent forest cover and basin slope had a negative effect on periphyton in nutrient ecoregion IX streams. Light availability was more critical to periphyton growth in streams than nutrients. Ecoregion XI had enough samples to do seasonal analyses. Summer-season periphyton chlorophyll a concentrations in nutrient ecoregion XI streams were positively related to total phosphorus and drainage area but negatively related to percent forest cover. Summer-season phytoplankton in streams was related to different variables within the same nutrient ecoregion. Both total nitrogen and total phosphorus were positively related with chlorophyll a concentrations as well as basin slope, total residue, and total suspended solids but negatively related to pH. The winter stream phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations were related to water temperature only.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1979

Seismic refraction profile, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: field operations, instrumentation, and initial results

In February 1978 a seismic deep-refraction profile was recorded by the USGS along a 1000-km line across the Arabian Shield in western Saudi Arabia. The line begins in Paleozoic and Mesozoic cover rocks near Riyadh on the Arabian Platform, leads southwesterly across three major Precambrian tectonic provinces, traverses Cenozoic rocks of the coastal plain near Jizan (Tihamat Asir), and terminates at the outer edge of the Farasan Bank in the southern Red Sea. More than 500 surveyed recording sites were occupied, including 19 in the Farasan Islands. Six shot points were used--five on land, with charges placed mostly below water table in drill holes, and one at sea, with charges placed on the sea floor and fired from a ship. The total charge consumed was slightly in excess of 61 metric tons in 21 discrete firings. Seismic energy was recorded by means of a set of 100 newly developed portable seismic stations. Each station consists of a standard 2-Hz vertical geophone coupled to a self-contained analog recording instrument equipped with a magnetic-tape cassette. The stations were deployed in groups of 20 by five observer teams, each generally consisting of two scientist-technicians and a surveyor-guide. On the day prior to deployment, the instruments were calibrated and programmed for automatic operation by means of a specially designed device called a hand-held tester. At each of ten pre-selected recording time windows on a designated firing day, the instruments were programmed to turn on, stabilize, record internal calibration signals, record the seismic signals at three levels of amplification, and then deactivate. After the final window in the firing sequence, all instruments were retrieved and their data tapes removed for processing. A specially designed, field tape- dubbing system was utilized at shot point camps to organize and edit data recorded on the cassette tapes. The main functions of this system are to concatenate all data from each shot on any given day onto a single shot tape, and to provide hard copy for monitoring recorder performance so that any problems can be corrected prior to the next deployment. Composite digital record sections were produced from the dubbed tapes for each shot point by a portable processing and plotting system. The heart of this system is a DEC PDP 11VO3 computer, which controls a cassette playback unit identical to those used in the recorders and dubbers, a set of discriminators, a time-code translator, a digitizer, and a digital plotter. The system was used to maintain various informational data sets and to produce tabulations and listings of various sorts during the field operations, in addition to its main task of producing digital record sections. Two master clocks, both set to time signals broadcast by the British Broadcasting Corporation, provided absolute time for the recording operations. One was located on the ship and the other was stationed at a base camp on the mainland. The land-based master clock was used to set three additional master clocks located at the other active shot points a few days in advance of each firing, and these clocks were then used to set the internal clocks in the portable seismic stations via the hand-held tester. A master clock signal was also linked to the firing system at each shot point for determination of the absolute shot instant. It is possible to construct a generalized crustal model from examination of the six shot point composite record sections obtained in the field. Such a model rests upon a number of simplifying assumptions and will almost certainly be modified at a later stage of interpretation. The main assumptions are that the crust consists of two homogeneous isotropic layers having no velocity inversion,, that the Mohorovicic discontinuity is sharp, and that effects of surface inhomogeneities and elevation changes can be ignored. The main characteristics of the tentative model are the following: (1) The thickness of th

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Applying portfolio theory to benefit endangered amphibians in coastal wetlands threatened by climate change, high uncertainty, and significant investment risk

The challenge of selecting strategies to adapt to climate change is complicated by the presence of irreducible uncertainties regarding future conditions. Decisions regarding long-term investments in conservation actions contain significant risk of failure due to these inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, decision makers need an arsenal of sophisticated but practical tools to help guide spatial conservation strategies. Theory asserts that managing risks can be achieved by diversifying an investment portfolio to include assets – such as stocks and bonds – that respond inversely to one another under a given set of conditions. We demonstrate an approach for formalizing the diversification of conservation assets (land parcels) and actions (restoration, species reintroductions) by using correlation structure to quantify the degree of risk for any proposed management investment. We illustrate a framework for identifying future habitat refugia by integrating species distribution modeling, scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, and impacts to critical habitat. Using the plains coqui ( Eleutherodactylus juanariveroi ), an endangered amphibian known from only three small wetland populations on Puerto Rico’s coastal plains, we evaluate the distribution of potential refugia under two model parameterizations and four future sea-level rise scenarios. We then apply portfolio theory using two distinct objective functions and eight budget levels to inform investment strategies for mitigating risk and increasing species persistence probability. Models project scenario-specific declines in coastal freshwater wetlands from 2% to nearly 30% and concurrent expansions of transitional marsh and estuarine open water. Conditional on the scenario, island-wide species distribution is predicted to contract by 25% to 90%. Optimal portfolios under the first objective function – benefit maximization – emphasizes translocating frogs to existing protected areas rather than investing in the protection of new habitat. Alternatively, optimal strategies using the second objective function – a risk-benefit tradeoff framework – include significant investment to protect parcels for the purpose of reintroduction or establishing new populations. These findings suggest that leveraging existing protected areas for species persistence, while less costly, may contain excessive risk and could result in diminished conservation benefits. Although our modeling includes numerous assumptions and simplifications, we believe this framework provides useful inference for exploring resource dynamics and developing robust adaptation strategies using an approach that is generalizable to other conservation problems which are spatial or portfolio in nature and subject to unresolvable uncertainty.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2018

A practical primer on geostatistics

Introduction The Challenge —Most geological phenomena are extraordinarily complex in their interrelationships and vast in their geographical extension. Ordinarily, engineers and geoscientists are faced with corporate or scientific requirements to properly prepare geological models with measurements involving a small fraction of the entire area or volume of interest. Exact description of a system such as an oil reservoir is neither feasible nor economically possible. The results are necessarily uncertain. Note that the uncertainty is not an intrinsic property of the systems; it is the result of incomplete knowledge by the observer. The Aim of Geostatistics —The main objective of geostatistics is the characterization of spatial systems that are incompletely known, systems that are common in geology. A key difference from classical statistics is that geostatistics uses the sampling location of every measurement. Unless the measurements show spatial correlation, the application of geostatistics is pointless. Ordinarily the need for additional knowledge goes beyond a few points, which explains the display of results graphically as fishnet plots, block diagrams, and maps. Geostatistical Methods —Geostatistics is a collection of numerical techniques for the characterization of spatial attributes using primarily two tools: probabilistic models, which are used for spatial data in a manner similar to the way in which time-series analysis characterizes temporal data, or pattern recognition techniques. The probabilistic models are used as a way to handle uncertainty in results away from sampling locations, making a radical departure from alternative approaches like inverse distance estimation methods. Differences with Time Series —On dealing with time-series analysis, users frequently concentrate their attention on extrapolations for making forecasts. Although users of geostatistics may be interested in extrapolation, the methods work at their best interpolating. This simple difference has significant methodological implications. Historical Remarks —As a discipline, geostatistics was firmly established in the 1960s by the French engineer Georges Matheron, who was interested in the appraisal of ore reserves in mining. Geostatistics did not develop overnight. Like other disciplines, it has built on previous results, many of which were formulated with different objectives in various fields. Pioneers —Seminal ideas conceptually related to what today we call geostatistics or spatial statistics are found in the work of several pioneers, including: 1940s: A.N. Kolmogorov in turbulent flow and N. Wiener in stochastic processing; 1950s: D. Krige in mining; 1960s: B. Mathern in forestry and L.S. Gandin in meteorology Calculations —Serious applications of geostatistics require the use of digital computers. Although for most geostatistical techniques rudimentary implementation from scratch is fairly straightforward, coding programs from scratch is recommended only as part of a practice that may help users to gain a better grasp of the formulations. Software —For professional work, the reader should employ software packages that have been thoroughly tested to handle any sampling scheme, that run as efficiently as possible, and that offer graphic capabilities for the analysis and display of results. This primer employs primarily the package Stanford Geomodeling Software (SGeMS) - recently developed at the Energy Resources Engineering Department at Stanford University - as a way to show how to obtain results practically. This applied side of the primer should not be interpreted as the notes being a manual for the use of SGeMS. The main objective of the primer is to help the reader gain an understanding of the fundamental concepts and tools in geostatistics. Organization of the Primer —The chapters of greatest importance are those covering kriging and simulation. All other materials are peripheral and are included for better comprehension of these main geostatistical modeling tools. The choice of kriging versus simulation is often a big puzzle to the uninitiated, let alone the different variants of both of them. Chapters 14, 18, and 19 are intended to shed light on those subjects. The critical aspect of assessing and modeling spatial correlation is covered in chapter 7. Chapters 2 and 3 review relevant concepts in classical statistics. Course Objectives —This course offers stochastic solutions to common problems in the characterization of complex geological systems. At the end of the course, participants should have: an understanding of the theoretical foundations of geostatistics; a good grasp of its possibilities and limitations; and reasonable familiarity with the SGeMS software, thus opening the possibility of practically applying geostatistics.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

A theory for modeling ground-water flow in heterogeneous media

Construction of a ground-water model for a field area is not a straightforward process. Data are virtually never complete or detailed enough to allow substitution into the model equations and direct computation of the results of interest. Formal model calibration through optimization, statistical, and geostatistical methods is being applied to an increasing extent to deal with this problem and provide for quantitative evaluation and uncertainty analysis of the model. However, these approaches are hampered by two pervasive problems: 1) nonlinearity of the solution of the model equations with respect to some of the model (or hydrogeologic) input variables (termed in this report system characteristics) and 2) detailed and generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of some of the system characteristics such as log hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, recharge and discharge, and boundary conditions. A theory is developed in this report to address these problems. The theory allows construction and analysis of a ground-water model of flow (and, by extension, transport) in heterogeneous media using a small number of lumped or smoothed system characteristics (termed parameters). The theory fully addresses both nonlinearity and heterogeneity in such a way that the parameters are not assumed to be effective values. The ground-water flow system is assumed to be adequately characterized by a set of spatially and temporally distributed discrete values, ?, of the system characteristics. This set contains both small-scale variability that cannot be described in a model and large-scale variability that can. The spatial and temporal variability in ? are accounted for by imagining ? to be generated by a stochastic process wherein ? is normally distributed, although normality is not essential. Because ? has too large a dimension to be estimated using the data normally available, for modeling purposes ? is replaced by a smoothed or lumped approximation y?. (where y is a spatial and temporal interpolation matrix). Set y?. has the same form as the expected value of ?, y 'line' ? , where 'line' ? is the set of drift parameters of the stochastic process; ?. is a best-fit vector to ?. A model function f(?), such as a computed hydraulic head or flux, is assumed to accurately represent an actual field quantity, but the same function written using y?., f(y?.), contains error from lumping or smoothing of ? using y?.. Thus, the replacement of ? by y?. yields nonzero mean model errors of the form E(f(?)-f(y?.)) throughout the model and covariances between model errors at points throughout the model. These nonzero means and covariances are evaluated through third and fifth-order accuracy, respectively, using Taylor series expansions. They can have a significant effect on construction and interpretation of a model that is calibrated by estimating ?.. Vector ?.. is estimated as 'hat' ? using weighted nonlinear least squares techniques to fit a set of model functions f(y'hat' ?) to a. corresponding set of observations of f(?), Y. These observations are assumed to be corrupted by zero-mean, normally distributed observation errors, although, as for ?, normality is not essential. An analytical approximation of the nonlinear least squares solution is obtained using Taylor series expansions and perturbation techniques that assume model and observation errors to be small. This solution is used to evaluate biases and other results to second-order accuracy in the errors. The correct weight matrix to use in the analysis is shown to be the inverse of the second-moment matrix E(Y-f(y?.))(Y-f(y?.))', but the weight matrix is assumed to be arbitrary in most developments. The best diagonal approximation is the inverse of the matrix of diagonal elements of E(Y-f(y?.))(Y-f(y?.))', and a method of estimating this diagonal matrix when it is unknown is developed using a special objective function to compute 'hat' ?. When considered to be an estimate of f

Professional Paper↗