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Understanding ocean acidification impacts on organismal to ecological scales

Ocean acidification (OA) research seeks to understand how marine ecosystems and global elemental cycles will respond to changes in seawater carbonate chemistry in combination with other environmental perturbations such as warming, eutrophication, and deoxygenation. Here, we discuss the effectiveness and limitations of current research approaches used to address this goal. A diverse combination of approaches is essential to decipher the consequences of OA to marine organisms, communities, and ecosystems. Consequently, the benefits and limitations of each approach must be considered carefully. Major research challenges involve experimentally addressing the effects of OA in the context of large natural variability in seawater carbonate system parameters and other interactive variables, integrating the results from different research approaches, and scaling results across different temporal and spatial scales.

Oceanography

SiMPL wildlife magnets: A camera trap tool for detecting all creatures great and small

We created the SiMPL wildlife magnet—a baited camera trap design that allows passive monitoring of wildlife, particularly small- to medium-sized mammals. The SiMPL wildlife magnet is inexpensive and easy to construct. To evaluate its effectiveness, we conducted a two-year case study using 9 camera stations along an elevation gradient in the White Mountains of the northeastern United States. We examined how the detection probability of mammal species changed with the inclusion of a SiMPL wildlife magnet using data from pre-and post-establishment. We found a significant increase in community-level detection probability with the use of SiMPL wildlife magnets and for individual species, including red squirrels ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus ), American marten ( Martes americana ), and fisher ( Pekania pennanti ). Moreover, we were able to capture more species with SiMPL wildlife magnets than without, including flying squirrels ( Glaucomys spp.), various rodents ( Cricetidae spp.), black bears ( Ursus americanus ), moose ( Alces alces ), owls, and other birds. The SiMPL wildlife magnet is an effective, low-cost method for surveying wildlife communities, especially rodents and mesocarnivores. It addresses the limited field of view presented by other techniques for capturing small mammals on camera traps and enables efficient collection of phenology data, including vegetation and snowpack. This tool has several applications, including monitoring species' responses to management practices and global change.

Ecology and Evolution

Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems. Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO 2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use efficiency, but the consequences of this growth enhancement for the ecosystem are unknown.

Fact Sheet

Ecoregions of Alaska

This publication represents a milestone in the U.S. global change research program on the land characterization of Arctic land processes. The book describes 20 ecological regions and includes a folded, color-coded map that shows them. The map legend summarizes the characteristics of each region and has 41 color photographs of representative sites. The map and accompanying information should prove helpful in making practical decisions concerning land management planning and in determining the availability of natural resources.

Alaska

From theory to experiments for testing the proximate mechanisms of mast seeding: An agenda for an experimental ecology

Highly variable and synchronised production of seeds by plant populations is called masting and is implicated in many important ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. The lack of experimental studies prevents underlying mechanisms from being explicitly tested, and thereby precludes meaningful predictions on the consequences of changing environments for plant reproductive patterns and global vegetation dynamics. Here we review the most relevant hypothetical drivers of masting and outline a research agenda that takes the biology of masting from a largely observational field of ecology to one rooted in mechanistic understanding. We divide the experimental framework into three main processes: resource dynamics, pollen limitation, and genetic and hormonal regulation, and illustrate how specific predictions about proximate mechanisms can be tested, highlighting the few successful experiments as examples. We envision that the experiments we outline will deliver new insights into how and why masting patterns might respond to a changing environment.

Ecology Letters

Droughting a megadrought: Ecological consequences of a decade of experimental drought atop aridification on the Colorado Plateau

Global dryland vegetation communities will likely change as ongoing drought conditions shift regional climates towards a more arid future. Additional aridification of drylands can impact plant and ground cover, biogeochemical cycles, and plant-soil feedbacks, yet how and when these crucial ecosystem components will respond to drought intensification requires further investigation. Using a long-term precipitation reduction experiment (35% reduction) conducted across the Colorado Plateau and spanning ten years into a 20+ year regional megadrought, we explored how vegetation cover, soil conditions, and growing season nitrogen (N) availability are impacted by drying climate conditions. We observed large declines for all dominant plant functional types (C 3 and C 4 grasses and C 3 and C 4 shrubs) across measurement period, both in the drought treatment and control plots, likely due to ongoing regional megadrought conditions. In experimental drought plots, we observed less plant cover, less biological soil crust cover, warmer and drier soil conditions, and more soil resin-extractable N compared to the control plots. Observed increases in soil N availability were best explained by a negative correlation with plant cover regardless of treatment, suggesting that declines in vegetation N uptake may be driving increases in available soil N. However, in ecosystems experiencing long-term aridification, increased N availability may ultimately result in N losses if soil moisture is consistently too dry to support plant and microbial N immobilization and ecosystem recovery. These results show dramatic, worrisome declines in plant cover with long-term drought. Additionally, this study highlights that more plant cover losses are possible with further drought intensification, and underscore that, in addition to large drought effects on aboveground communities, drying trends drive significant changes to critical soil resources such as N availability, all of which could have long-term ecosystem impacts for drylands.

Global Change Biology

Quantifying the demographic vulnerabilities of dry woodlands to climate and competition using rangewide monitoring data

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution and abundance of tree species, impacting ecosystem structure and function. Yet, anticipating where this will occur is often hampered by a lack of understanding of how demographic rates, most notably recruitment, vary in response to climate and competition across a species range. Using large-scale monitoring data on two dry woodland tree species ( Pinus edulis and Juniperus osteosperma ), we develop an approach to infer recruitment, survival, and growth of both species across their range. In doing so, we account for ecological and statistical dependencies inherent in large-scale monitoring data. We find that drying and warming conditions generally lead to declines in recruitment and survival, but the strength of responses varied between species. These climate conditions point to geographic regions of high vulnerability for particular species, such as Pinus edulis in northern Arizona, where both survival and recruitment are low. Our approach provides a path forward for leveraging emerging large-scale monitoring and remotely sensed data to anticipate the impacts of global change on species distributions.

Ecology

Does habitat or climate change drive species range shifts?

A primary prediction of climate change ecology is that species will track their climate niche poleward and upslope. However, studies have shown species responding in surprising ways. In this study, we aim to understand the impact of global change on species ranges by considering both climate and habitat changes. Using occupancy analysis of acoustic survey data in the mountains of the northeastern United States, we tested specific predictions of range responses to warming (shifting upslope), precipitation change (shifting downslope), and forest composition change (shifting downslope). We found that American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus , key nodes in northern North American food webs, are not tracking increasing temperatures upslope, despite substantial warming in recent decades. Structural equation modeling indicates that red squirrel abundance is primarily influenced by red-spruce forest cover, which has shifted downslope with recovery from historical logging and acid deposition. Accounting for the multiple dimensions of global change will enable better predictions and more effective conservation strategies.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

Modes of climate variability bridge proximate and evolutionary mechanisms of masting

There is evidence that variable and synchronous reproduction in seed plants (masting) correlates to modes of climate variability, e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. In this perspective, we explore the breadth of knowledge on how climate modes control reproduction in major masting species throughout Earth's biomes. We posit that intrinsic properties of climate modes (periodicity, persistence and trends) drive interannual and decadal variability of plant reproduction, as well as the spatial extent of its synchrony, aligning multiple proximate causes of masting through space and time. Moreover, climate modes force lagged but in-phase ecological processes that interact synergistically with multiple stages of plant reproductive cycles. This sets up adaptive benefits by increasing offspring fitness through either economies of scale or environmental prediction. Community-wide links between climate modes and masting across plant taxa suggest an evolutionary role of climate variability. We argue that climate modes may ‘bridge’ proximate and ultimate causes of masting selecting for variable and synchronous reproduction. The future of such interaction is uncertain: processes that improve reproductive fitness may remain coupled with climate modes even under changing climates, but chances are that abrupt global warming will affect Earth's climate modes so rapidly as to alter ecological and evolutionary links.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:

Climate change and coastal wetland salinization: Physiological and ecological consequences for Arctic waterfowl

Coastal wetland salinization related to warming climate has the potential to impact ecological systems globally. In Alaska, the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) supports large concentrations of breeding water birds and is an ecologically important area for conservation of migratory bird biodiversity. On the YKD, the majority of waterfowl nest in low elevation coastal tundra where storm surges drive saline water into terrestrial wetland habitats. Because newly hatched water birds lack functional salt glands to process saline water, salinization may negatively impact their growth and survival. We investigated potential demographic impacts of wetland salinization by conducting controlled physiological experiments to determine consequences of saline water exposure to spectacled Somateria fischeri and Steller's eider Polysticta stelleri ducklings, and analysed habitat suitability based on experimentally defined tolerance thresholds and sampled wetland salinity levels. We found physiological and behavioural pathologies in <1 week old ducklings at exposure levels of 6 parts per thousand (ppt), and found some evidence of reduced growth in ducklings first exposed after 1 week of age. We conclude that the acute toxicity threshold for ducklings <1 week of age is ≤6 ppt. We found that the area of coastal tundra where wetland salinity exceeded 6 ppt varied considerably among years, suggesting that some portion of the breeding range is unsuitable for rearing ducklings in some years. However, we also found that most eiders in most years nested in areas with salinity at or exceeding the tolerance threshold for ducklings, suggesting that nesting eiders do not appear to avoid saline habitats. We suggest that localized fresh water refugia currently may allow resilience to salinization during the critical period. Understanding how species and habitats respond to climate driven changes is essential for predicting future patterns of distribution and abundance, and is necessary for making informed decisions about conservation priorities. Our study provides insights into the extent of wetland salinization in Alaska, mechanism of impact and current ecological consequences on avian communities depending on these habitats. With ongoing climate change, the probability of species crossing physiological tolerance thresholds of wetland salinity may change in the future.

Functional Ecology

Droughts reshape apex predator space use and intraguild overlap

1. Droughts are increasing in frequency and severity globally due to climate change, leading to changes in resource availability that may have cascading effects on animal ecology. Resource availability is a key driver of animal space use, which in turn influences interspecific interactions like intraguild competition. Understanding how climate-induced changes in resource availability influence animal space use, and how species-specific responses scale up to affect intraguild dynamics, is necessary for predicting broader community-level responses to climatic changes. 2. Although several studies have demonstrated the ecological impacts of drought, the behavioral responses of individuals that scale up to these broader-scale effects are not well known, particularly among animals in top trophic levels, such as large carnivores. Furthermore, we currently lack understanding of how the impacts of climate variability on individual carnivore behavior are linked to intraguild dynamics, in part because multi-species datasets collected at timescales relevant to climatic changes are rare. 3. Using 11 years of GPS data from four sympatric large carnivore species in southern Africa – lions ( Panthera leo ), leopards ( Panthera pardus ), African wild dogs ( Lycaon pictus) , and cheetahs ( Acinonyx jubatus ) – spanning 4 severe drought events, we test whether drought conditions impact 1) large carnivore space use, 2) broad-scale intraguild spatial overlap, and 3) fine-scale intraguild interactions. 4. Drought conditions expanded space use across species, with carnivores increasing their monthly home range sizes by 35% (wild dogs) to 66% (leopards). Drought conditions increased the amount of spatial overlap between lions and subordinate felids (cheetahs and leopards) by up to 119%, but only lion-cheetah encounter rates were affected by these changes, declining in response to drought. 5. Our findings reveal that drought has a clear signature on the space use of multiple sympatric large carnivore species, which can alter spatiotemporal partitioning between competing species. Our study thereby illuminates the links between environmental change, animal behavior, and intraguild dynamics. While fine-scale avoidance strategies may facilitate intraguild coexistence during periodic droughts, large carnivore conservation may require considerable expansion of protected areas or revised human-carnivore coexistence strategies to accommodate the likely long-term increased space demands of large carnivores under projected increases in drought intensity.

Okavango Delta

Boundary spanning increases knowledge and action on invasive species in a changing climate

Challenges associated with global change stressors on ecosystems have prompted calls to improve actionable science, including through boundary-spanning activities, which aim to build connections and communication between researchers and natural resource practitioners. By synthesizing and translating research and practitioner knowledge, boundary-spanning activities could support proactive, research-informed conservation practice, but the success of these efforts is rarely evaluated. Using repeat survey data from the Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NE RISCC) Management Network, a boundary-spanning organization, we evaluate whether participating in NE RISCC affected practitioners' knowledge, actions and priorities related to invasive species management under a changing climate. Our survey results suggest that practitioners who participate in NE RISCC have greater knowledge about invasive species and climate change and are incorporating climate change in more ways into their invasive species management. We also found NE RISCC membership affected the perceived usefulness of informational resources, with NE RISCC members more frequently identifying research syntheses and targeted workshops (both are common products used by NE RISCC to translate science into practice and share manager knowledge) as useful compared to non-members. Practitioners who participate in NE RISCC also identified somewhat different research priorities, with non-members and short-term members more frequently identifying range-shifting neonative species and their impacts on native communities as higher priorities compared to long-term NE RISCC members. NE RISCC research activities and outreach materials have consistently framed range-shifting neonative species as comparatively low risk, suggesting that this information has influenced practitioner's perception of risk. Practical implication : Although real-world impacts of applied ecology are notoriously difficult to quantify, this analysis illustrates that if research results are actively translated, they can affect the knowledge and actions of natural resource practitioners. These impacts illustrate the potential for boundary-spanning efforts to address other global change challenges to conservation.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence

Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

A fundamental environmental challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and beyond is predicting the impacts of global environmental change. This challenge is complicated by the fact that we live on a non-stationary, unreplicated planet that is rapidly moving outside the envelope of natural variability into an historical non-analog world. In other words, while the past helps inform us about how the world has worked, it may no longer be the relevant frame of reference for management, conservation, and sustainability. In this future world the two questions at the foundation of sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect this trajectory?” These are, at their heart, questions about ecological forecasting.

Conference Paper

Gradients, vegetation and climate: spatial and temporal dynamics in the Olympic Mountains, USA

The steep environmental gradients of mountains result in the juxtaposition of diverse vegetation associations with narrow ecotones because life zones are compressed. Variation in geologic substrate, landforms, and soils, in combination with steep environmental gradients, create habitat diversity across spatial scales from 10 6 ha to <10 m 2 . This leads to higher biodiversity in a smaller space than in landscapes with less topographic variation. Mountains are often considered to be refuges for biological diversity at the regional scale, although variation in landscape features creates refuges at a fine scale as well. Mountains should also be considered a source of biological diversity, because they provide the germplasm for migration into lowland areas following glacial recession. Many taxa are distributed over a broad range of elevations and habitats, which maximizes the potential to respond to environmental perturbations. Reorganization of species distribution and abundance as a result of climatic change may be impacted considerably by human-caused fragmentation of landscape features, especially at lower elevations. This paper uses palaeoecological and biogeographical data to investigate the spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics of a steep maritime range, the Olympic Mountains (USA). The role of resource management in protecting vegetation in a fragmented landscape is discussed, with emphasis on how to address uncertainties such as climatic change.

Washington

Ecological effects of climate change on salt marsh wildlife: a case study from a highly urbanized estuary

Coastal areas are high-risk zones subject to the impacts of global climate change, with significant increases in the frequencies of extreme weather and storm events, and sea-level rise forecast by 2100. These physical processes are expected to alter estuaries, resulting in loss of intertidal wetlands and their component wildlife species. In particular, impacts to salt marshes and their wildlife will vary both temporally and spatially and may be irreversible and severe. Synergistic effects caused by combining stressors with anthropogenic land-use patterns could create areas of significant biodiversity loss and extinction, especially in urbanized estuaries that are already heavily degraded. In this paper, we discuss current ideas, challenges, and concerns regarding the maintenance of salt marshes and their resident wildlife in light of future climate conditions. We suggest that many salt marsh habitats are already impaired and are located where upslope transgression is restricted, resulting in reduction and loss of these habitats in the future. In addition, we conclude that increased inundation frequency and water depth will have negative impacts on the demography of small or isolated wildlife meta-populations as well as their community interactions. We illustrate our points with a case study on the Pacific Coast of North America at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California, an area that supports endangered wildlife species reliant on salt marshes for all aspects of their life histories.

Journal of Coastal Research

Establishing conservation units to promote recovery of two threatened freshwater mussel species (Bivalvia: Unionida: Potamilus)

Population genomics has significantly increased our ability to make inferences about microevolutionary processes and demographic histories, which have the potential to improve protection and recovery of imperiled species. Freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionida) represent one of the most imperiled groups of organisms globally. Despite systemic decline of mussel abundance and diversity, studies evaluating spatiotemporal changes in distribution, demographic histories, and ecological factors that threaten long-term persistence of imperiled species remain lacking. In this study, we use genotype-by-sequencing (GBS) and mitochondrial sequence data (mtDNA) to define conservation units (CUs) for two highly imperiled freshwater mussel species, Potamilus amphichaenus and Potamilus streckersoni . We then synthesize our molecular findings with details from field collections spanning from 1901 to 2019 to further elucidate distributional trends, contemporary status, and other factors that may be contributing to population declines for our focal species. We collected GBS and mtDNA data for individuals of P. amphichaenus and P. streckersoni from freshwater mussel collections in the Brazos, Neches, Sabine, and Trinity drainages ranging from 2012 to 2019. Molecular analyses resolved disputing number of genetic clusters within P. amphichaenus and P. streckersoni ; however, we find defensible support for four CUs, each corresponding to an independent river basin. Evaluations of historical and recent occurrence data illuminated a generally increasing trend of occurrence in each of the four CUs, which were correlated with recent increases in sampling effort. Taken together, these findings suggest that P. amphichaenus and P. streckersoni are likely rare throughout their respective ranges. Because of this, the establishment of CUs will facilitate evidence-based recovery planning and ensure potential captive propagation and translocation efforts are beneficial. Our synthesis represents a case study for conservation genomic assessments in freshwater mussels and provides a model for future studies aimed at recovery planning for these highly imperiled organisms.

Ecology and Evolution