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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

A low-cost method to measure the timing of post-fire flash floods and debris flows relative to rainfall

Data on the specific timing of post-fire flash floods and debris flows are very limited. We describe a method to measure the response times of small burned watersheds to rainfall using a low-cost pressure transducer, which can be installed quickly after a fire. Although the pressure transducer is not designed for sustained sampling at the fast rates ({less than or equal to}2 sec) used at more advanced debris-flow monitoring sites, comparisons with high-data rate stage data show that measured spikes in pressure sampled at 1-min intervals are sufficient to detect the passage of most debris flows and floods. Post-event site visits are used to measure the peak stage and identify flow type based on deposit characteristics. The basin response timescale (tb) to generate flow at each site was determined from an analysis of the cross correlation between time series of flow pressure and 5-min rainfall intensity. This timescale was found to be less than 30 minutes for 40 post-fire floods and 11 post-fire debris flows recorded in 15 southern California watersheds ({less than or equal to} 1.4 km 2 ). Including data from 24 other debris flows recorded at 5 more instrumentally advanced monitoring stations, we find there is not a substantial difference in the median tb for floods and debris flows (11 and 9 minutes, respectively); however, there are slight, statistically significant differences in the trends of flood and debris-flow tb with basin area, which are presumably related to differences in flow speed between floods and debris flows.

Water Resources Research

Real-time invasive sea lamprey detection using machine learning classifier models on embedded systems

Invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) has historically inflicted considerable economic and ecological damage in the Great Lakes and continues to be a major threat. Accurately monitoring sea lampreys are critical to enabling the deployment of more targeted and effective control measures to minimize the impact associated with this species. This paper presents the first stand-alone system for real-time detection of sea lamprey attachment on underwater surfaces through the use of classifier models deployed on a microcontroller system. A range of low-complexity models was explored: single-layer artificial neural networks, logistic regression, Gaussian Naive-Bayes, decision trees, random forest, and Scalable, Efficient, and Fast classifieR (SEFR). Threshold models tuned using a multi-objective optimization formulation were also considered. Classifier models were trained with a dataset generated through live animal testing and presented accuracies between 80 and 86%. The models were deployed on an Arduino microcontroller platform and compared in classification accuracy, detection performance, time complexity, and memory size using real-time detection testing. Classification accuracies between 65 and 75% were observed during validation. Models demonstrated good capture rates for lamprey attachments (63–85%), and average detection delays ranging from 9 to 36 s. A video demonstrating the operation of the system during a real-time validation test is also included in this work. While there is room for improving the accuracy of the system, this research presents the first step toward an electronic sea lamprey monitoring system that can provide a detailed view of sea lamprey activity enhancing control and conservation efforts across its entire range.

Neural Computing and Applications

Hourly and daily variation of sediment redox potential in tidal wetland sediments

Variation of electrochemical oxidation-reduction (redox) potential was examined in surface salt march sediments under conditions of flooding and tidal simulation in mesocosms and field sites. Time series were generated of redox potential measured in sediment profiles at 2-10 cm depth using combination Pt-Ag/AgCl (ORP) electrodes. Redox potential data were acquired at rapid rates (1-55 samples/h) over extended periods (3-104 days) along with similar times series of temperature (water, air, soil) and pH. It was found that redox potential vaired as a result of water level changes and was unrelated to diurnal changes in temperature or pH, the latter of which changed by <0.5 units over the tide cycles. In closed, hydrostatic microcosms isolated from atmospheric oxygen, development of negative redox potentials proceeded rapidly (>370 mV redox potential decrease in under 48 hours). Attenuatoin of microbial activity by [gamma] y-radiation and toxic chemicals elimintated this response. In tidal salt marsh mesocosms where the sediment-plant assemblages were exposed to a simulated diurnal tide, redox potenial oscillations of 40-300 mV amplitude were recoded that has the same periodicity as the flood-drain cycle. Periodic redoc potential time series were observed repeatedly in sediments receiving tidal pulsing but not in those sediments exposed to static hydrological conditions. Data collected over 12 days from a coastal marsh site experiencing diurnal tides showed similar fluctuations in redox potential. Data from the experimentents indicated that (a) redox potential can be a dynamic, nonlinear variable in coastal and estuarine wetland sediments over hourly and daily scales, and the designs of biogeochemical experiments should reflect this, (b) redox potential can change rapidly and signigicantly in coastal wetland sediments in response of flooding and draining, (c) microbial community processes are primarily determinants of the time course of redox potential in wetland sediments, and elimination of inhibition of microbial activity (e.g. by pollutants) can significantly alter that behavior, and (d) fast redox potential dynamics appear to be characteristic of sediments that experience changes in hydrology. The rapid redox potential changes observed in these systems indicated dynamic metabolic and biogeochemical conditions in the field, and confirmed that hourly and daily redox potential variations should be resolved in studies of sediment functioning.

Biological Science Report

Larval gizzard shad characteristics in Lake Oahe, South Dakota: A species at the northern edge of its range

Gizzard shad, Dorosoma cepedianum, have generally been restricted to the lower Missouri River impoundments in South Dakota. In recent years, gizzard shad numbers have increased in Lake Oahe, marking the northern-most natural population. These increases could potentially affect recreational fishes. Specifically, questions arise about larval gizzard shad growth dynamics and if age-0 gizzard shad in Lake Oahe will exhibit fast or slow growth, both of which can have profound effects on piscivore populations in this reservoir. In this study, we evaluated larval gizzard shad hatch timing, growth, and density in Lake Oahe. We collected larval gizzard shad from six sites from May to July 2008 and used sagittal otoliths to estimate the growth and back-calculate the hatch date. We found that larval gizzard shad hatched earlier in the upper part of the reservoir compared to the lower portion and that hatch date appeared to correspond to warming water temperatures. The peak larval gizzard shad density ranged from 0.6 to 33.6 (#/100&thinsp;m 3 ) and varied significantly among reservoir sites. Larval gizzard shad growth ranged from 0.24 to 0.57 (mm/d) and differed spatially within the reservoir. We found no relationship between the larval gizzard shad growth or density and small- or large-bodied zooplankton density ( p &thinsp;>&thinsp;0.05). As this population exhibits slow growth and low densities, gizzard shad should remain a suitable forage option for recreational fishes in Lake Oahe.

South Dakota

Specific conductance as a tracer of preferential flow in a subsurface-drained field

Specific conductance (SC), soil volumetric water content (VWC), and discharge were monitored on a subsurface agricultural drain for a 2-yr period (2007–2008) to differentiate preferential flow paths from matrix flow paths. A major observation from the 2-yr period was the fast SC decrease after relatively small rainfall events, often <5 mm. A total of 25 paired rainfall–SC events were classified, with an average preferential flow onset time (from the event start) after 1.7 h and maximum preferential flow after 2.4 h. A specific conductance end-member mixing analysis (SC-EMMA) was used to determine the volume of water that infiltrated through preferential flow pathways. The SC-EMMA was used for 20 of the 25 paired rainfall–SC events; of the 20 classified events, the maximum preferential flow ranged from 11 to 75% of the total subsurface drain flow, with a mean maximum preferential flow of 31%. Overall, SC-EMMA illustrated that a significant portion of the subsurface drain discharge can be attributed to preferential flow, mainly through macropores or other largely open preferential flow pathways. The other primary mechanism, antecedent moisture conditions shifts, could only be shown for four of the 25 classified events. Specific conductance as a tracer of preferential flow was shown to be an effective tool for distinguishing preferential flow to subsurface drains. Even during relatively dry periods, the SC had a substantial decrease shortly after a rainfall event contrary to the conventional idea that macropore flow starts only after all the smaller pores are saturated and surface ponding begins to occur.

Iowa

Near-bottom currents over the continental slope in the Mid-Atlantic Bight

From a set of 28 current meter records we have found that near-bottom currents faster than 0.2 m s-1 occur frequently over the outer continental shelf of the Mid-Atlantic Bight (bottom depth <210 m) but very rarely (<1% of the time) between bottom depths of 500 m and 2 km over the slope. The rarity of strong near-bottom flow over the middle and lower slope allows the accumulation of fine-grained sediment and organic carbon in this region. Fast near-bottom currents which do occur over the slope are invariably associated with topographic waves, although it is often superimposed inertial oscillations which increase current speed above the level of 0.2 m s-1. Episodes of intense inertial oscillations occur randomly and last typically for 10-20 days. Their energy source is unknown. Topographic wave energy exhibits a slight, but statistically significant, minimum over the mid-slope. These waves appear irregularly and vary both along isobaths and in time. The irregularity is presumably a consequence of random topographic wave generation by Gulf Stream instability. The current regime within sea-floor depressions in the slope (canyons and gullies) is distinctly different from that of the open slope; most notable is the near absence of topographic wave motion within depressions.

Continental Shelf Research

Ignoring detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use overestimates regional terrestrial carbon sequestration

Land use change is critical in determining the distribution, magnitude and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon budgets at the local to global scales. To date, almost all regional to global carbon cycle studies are driven by a static land use map or land use change statistics with decadal time intervals. The biases in quantifying carbon exchange between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere caused by using such land use change information have not been investigated. Here, we used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS), along with consistent and spatially explicit land use change scenarios with different intervals (1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs and static, respectively), to evaluate the impacts of land use change data frequency on estimating regional carbon sequestration in the southeastern United States. Our results indicate that ignoring the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use can lead to a significant overestimation of carbon uptake by the terrestrial ecosystem. Regional carbon sequestration increased from 0.27 to 0.69, 0.80 and 0.97 Mg C ha −1 yr −1 when land use change data frequency shifting from 1 year to 5 years, 10 years interval and static land use information, respectively. Carbon removal by forest harvesting and prolonged cumulative impacts of historical land use change on carbon cycle accounted for the differences in carbon sequestration between static and dynamic land use change scenarios. The results suggest that it is critical to incorporate the detailed dynamics of land use change into local to global carbon cycle studies. Otherwise, it is impossible to accurately quantify the geographic distributions, magnitudes, and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon sequestration at the local to global scales.

Alabama, Georgia

Landslide modeling and forecasting—recent progress by the u.s. geological survey

Landslide studies by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are focused on two main objectives: scientific understanding and forecasting. The first objective is to gain better understanding of the physical processes involved in landslide initiation and movement. This objective is largely in support of the second objective, to develop predictive capabilities to answer the main hazard questions. Answers to the following six questions are needed to characterize the hazard from landslides: (1) Where will landslides occur? (2) What kind(s) of landslides will occur? (3) When will landslides occur? (4) How big will the landslides be? (5) How fast will the landslides travel? (6) How far will the landslides go? Although these questions are sometimes recast in different terms, such as frequency or recurrence rather than timing (when), the questions or their variants address the spatial, physical, and temporal aspects of landslide hazards. Efforts to develop modeling and forecasting capabilities by the USGS are primarily focused on specific landslide types that pose a high degree of hazard and show relatively high potential for predictability.

Conference Paper

Variable exhumation rates and variable displacement rates: Documenting recent slowing of Himalayan shortening in western Bhutan

We link exhumational variability in space and time to the evolving geometry of the Himalayan fold–thrust belt in western Bhutan. By combining new and published geochronologic and thermochronologic data we document the burial age, peak temperatures and complete cooling history from 20 Ma to the present over an across-strike distance of ∼125 km. These integrated cooling curves highlight windows of fast exhumation that vary spatially and temporally. We propose that pulses of fast exhumation are a result of structures that facilitate the vertical motion of material, illustrated in sequentially-restored cross sections. Due to a range of permissible geometries at depth, we explore and evaluate the impact of geometry on kinematics and rates of deformation. The linked cooling history and cross sections provide estimates of both magnitude and timing of thrust sheet displacement and highlight temporal variability in potential shortening rates. Structural and chronologic data illustrate a general north to south progression of Himalayan deformation, with emplacement of the Main Central thrust (MCT), Paro thrust and Shumar thrust by 12 to no later than 9 Ma. Two different geometries and kinematic scenarios for the Lesser Himalayan duplex are proposed. A north to south propagating duplex system requires that the southern portion of that system, south of the MCT, deformed and cooled by 9 Ma, leaving only the southernmost thrust sheets, including the Main Boundary and Main Frontal thrusts, to deform between 9 and 0 Ma. This limited post 9 Ma shortening would necessitate a marked slowdown in convergence accommodated on the Main Himalayan thrust. A two-tiered duplex system, which allows for the Paro window duplex and the southern Baxa duplex to form simultaneously, permits duplex formation and accompanying exhumation until 6 Ma. Limited cooling from ∼200 °C to the surface post 6 Ma suggests either a decrease in shortening rates from 6 to 0 Ma or that duplex formation and exhumation are temporally decoupled. Our combined cooling curves highlight that the youngest cooling ages may not mark the fastest thrusting rates or the window of fastest exhumation. Instead, temporal variations in exhumation are best viewed through identifying transients in exhumation rate. We suggest that the strongest control on exhumation magnitude and variability is fold–thrust belt geometry, particularly the locations and magnitudes of footwall ramps, which can change over 10ʼs of km distance. Balanced cross sections predict the location and magnitude of these ramps and how they vary in space and time, providing an untapped potential for testing permissible cross-section geometries and kinematics against measured cooling histories.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters

Near-Earth solar wind speed of fast coronal mass ejections

Using solar wind and ground magnetometer data for solar cycles 23–25, extreme-value power-law models are developed that quantify relationships between near-Earth solar wind speed and Sun-to-Earth transit times of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The models of near-Earth solar wind speed, conditional on ICME transit time, are (a) approximately stable for transit times as short as 15 hr, (b) sublinear, consistent with hydrodynamic drag acting on ICMEs during transit, with linear (ballistic) models not supported by the data, (c) representative of most of the information content of the data, and (d) insensitive to the solar cycle and interplanetary preconditioning. Applying the models to the September 1859 Carrington event ( 𝑇 =17.6 hours), we estimate an ICME-average speed of 𝑉 𝑎 =102⁢1 1164 896 km/s and a 1-hr ICME-maximum speed of 𝑉 𝑚 =157⁢5 1795 1382 km/s. These estimates indicate that Carrington-class magnetic storms do not require exceptionally extreme solar wind speeds, with values lower than some previous estimates.

JGR Space Physics

Evaluation of selected static methods used to estimate element mobility, acid-generating and acid-neutralizing potentials associated with geologically diverse mining wastes

A comparison study of selected static leaching and acid&ndash;base accounting (ABA) methods using a mineralogically diverse set of 12 modern-style, metal mine waste samples was undertaken to understand the relative performance of the various tests. To complement this study, in-depth mineralogical studies were conducted in order to elucidate the relationships between sample mineralogy, weathering features, and leachate and ABA characteristics. In part one of the study, splits of the samples were leached using six commonly used leaching tests including paste pH, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Field Leach Test (FLT) (both 5-min and 18-h agitation), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Method 1312 SPLP (both leachate pH 4.2 and leachate pH 5.0), and the USEPA Method 1311 TCLP (leachate pH 4.9). Leachate geochemical trends were compared in order to assess differences, if any, produced by the various leaching procedures. Results showed that the FLT (5-min agitation) was just as effective as the 18-h leaching tests in revealing the leachate geochemical characteristics of the samples. Leaching results also showed that the TCLP leaching test produces inconsistent results when compared to results produced from the other leaching tests. In part two of the study, the ABA was determined on splits of the samples using both well-established traditional static testing methods and a relatively quick, simplified net acid&ndash;base accounting (NABA) procedure. Results showed that the traditional methods, while time consuming, provide the most in-depth data on both the acid generating, and acid neutralizing tendencies of the samples. However, the simplified NABA method provided a relatively fast, effective estimation of the net acid&ndash;base account of the samples. Overall, this study showed that while most of the well-established methods are useful and effective, the use of a simplified leaching test and the NABA acid&ndash;base accounting method provide investigators fast, quantitative tools that can be used to provide rapid, reliable information about the leachability of metals and other constituents of concern, and the acid-generating potential of metal mining waste.

Applied Geochemistry

Hydrology of Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Yucca Mountain, located in southern Nevada in the Mojave Desert, is being considered as a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste. Although the site is arid, previous studies indicate net infiltration rates of 5-10 mm yr-1 under current climate conditions. Unsaturated flow of water through the mountain generally is vertical and rapid through the fractures of the welded tuffs and slow through the matrix of the nonwelded tuffs. The vitric-zeolitic boundary of the nonwelded tuffs below the potential repository, where it exists, causes perching and substantial lateral flow that eventually flows through faults near the eastern edge of the potential repository and recharges the underlying groundwater system. Fast pathways are located where water flows relatively quickly through the unsaturated zone to the water table. For the bulk of the water a large part of the travel time from land surface to the potential repository horizon (~300 m below land surface) is through the interlayered, low fracture density, nonwelded tuff where flow is predominately through the matrix. The unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain is being modeled using a three-dimensional, dual-continuum numerical model to predict the results of measurements and observations in new boreholes and excavations. The interaction between experimentalists and modelers is providing confidence in the conceptual model and the numerical model and is providing researchers with the ability to plan further testing and to evaluate the usefulness or necessity of further data collection.

Reviews of Geophysics

Volcanic processes and geology of Augustine Volcano, Alaska

Augustine Island (volcano) in lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, has erupted repeatedly in late-Holocene and historical times. Eruptions typically beget high-energy volcanic processes. Most notable are bouldery debris avalanches containing immense angular clasts shed from summit domes. Coarse deposits of these avalanches form much of Augustine's lower flanks. A new geologic map at 1:25,000 scale depicts these deposits, these processes. We correlate deposits by tephra layers calibrated by many radiocarbon dates.Augustine Volcano began erupting on the flank of a small island of Jurassic clastic-sedimentary rock before the late Wisconsin glaciation (late Pleistocene). The oldest known effusions ranged from olivine basalt explosively propelled by steam, to highly explosive magmatic eruptions of dacite or rhyodacite shed as pumice flows. Late Wisconsin piedmont glaciers issuing from the mountainous western mainland surrounded the island while dacitic eruptive debris swept down the south volcano flank.Evidence is scant for eruptions between the late Wisconsin and about 2,200 yr B.P. On a few south-flank inliers, thick stratigraphically low pumiceous pyroclastic-flow and fall deposits probably represent this period from which we have no radiocarbon dates on Augustine Island. Eruptions between about 5,350 and 2,200 yr B.P. we know with certainty by distal tephras. On Shuyak Island 100 km southeast of Augustine, two distal fall ashes of Augustinian chemical provenance (microprobe analysis of glass) date respectively between about 5,330 and 5,020 yr B.P. and between about 3,620 and 3,360 yr B.P. An Augustine ash along Kamishak Creek 70 km southwest of Augustine dates between about 3,850 and 3,660 yr B.P. A probably Augustinian ash lying within peat near Homer dates to about 2,275 yr B.P.From before 2,200 yr B.P. to the present, Augustine eruptive products abundantly mantle the island. During this period, numerous coarse debris avalanches swept beyond Augustine's coast, most recently in A.D. 1883. The decapitated summit after the 1883 eruption, replaced by andesite domes of six eruptions since, shows a general process: collapse of steep summit domes, then the summit regrown by later dome eruptions. The island's stratigraphy is based on six or seven coarse-pumice tephra "marker beds." In upward succession they are layers G (2,100 yr B.P.), I (1,700 yr B.P.), H (1,400 yr B.P.), C (1,200-1,000 yr B.P.), M (750 yr B.P.), and B (390 yr B.P.).A coarse, hummocky debris-avalanche deposit older than about 2,100 yr B.P.-or perhaps a stack of three of them-lies along the east coast, the oldest exposed such bouldery diamicts on Augustine Island. Two large debris avalanches swept east and southeast into the sea between about 2,100 and 1,800 yr B.P. A large debris avalanche shed east and east-northeast into the sea between 1,700 and 14,00 yr B.P.Between about 1,400 and 1,100 yr B.P. debris avalanches swept into the sea on the volcano's south, southwest, and north-northwest. Pumiceous pyroclastic fans spread to the southeast and southwest, lithic pyroclastic flows and lahars (?) to the south and southeast. Pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, and lahars swept down the west and south flanks between about 1,000 and 750 yr B.P.A debris avalanche swept into the sea on the west, and a small one on the south-southeast, between about 750 and 400 yr B.P. Large lithic pyroclastic flows shed to the southeast; smaller ones descended existing swales on the southwest and south.Between about 400 yr B.P. and historical time (late 1770s), three debris avalanches swept into the sea on the west-northwest, north-northwest, and north flanks. One of them (West Island) was large and fast: most of it rode to sea far beyond a former sea cliff, and its surface includes geomorphic evidence of having initiating a tsunami. Augustine's only conspicuous lava flow erupted on the north flank.During this prehistoric period numerous domes grew at the volcano's summit, remnants of which form the east and south sides of the present summit-dome complex. Three domes grew below the summit area on the upper south and northwest flanks. In between large eruptions that deposited coarse pumiceous fall beds, many smaller eruptions emplaced beds of sand-sized ash on the volcano flanks.During the past 750 years, beach and back-beach eolian dunes accreted at the southwest coast, forming a ribbed coastwise topography. Lesser dunes grew at the backs of beaches in coves on other flanks.An eruption in 1883 shed a debris avalanche swiftly into the sea on the north-northeast, followed by pyroclastic flows and surges. Eruptions in 1935 and 1963-64 grew summit domes that spilled over the southwest and south flanks and shed coarse rubbly lithic pyroclastic flows down those flanks. Eruptions and 1976 and 1986 grew domes that draped down the north flank and shed voluminous pyroclastic flows to the northeast through north-northwest flanks, when smaller pyroclastic flows and (or) lahars swept down other flanks. A small dome-building eruption in January-March 2006 after this report was all but complete we treat only fleetingly. The largest debris avalanches sweep into the sea at Augustine's coast at speeds inferred between 60 and 80 m/s. Augustine is capable of initiating damaging tsunami to lower Cook Inlet, but geologic evidence for them on the mainland is sporadic and sparse.

Alaska

Along-shelf current variability on the Catalan inner-shelf (NW Mediterranean)

We examine the circulation over the inner shelf of the Catalan Sea using observations of currents obtained from three ADCPs within the inner-shelf (24 and 50 m depth) during March-April 2011. The along-shelf current fluctuations during that period are mainly controlled by the local wind stress on short time scales and by remote pressure gradients on synoptic time scales. Different forcing mechanisms are involved in the along-shelf momentum balance. During storm conditions, wind stress, sea level gradients and the non-linear terms dominate the balance. During weak wind conditions, the momentum balance is controlled by the pressure gradient, while during periods of moderate wind in the presence of considerable stratification, the balance is established between the Coriolis and wind stress terms. Vertical variations of velocity are affected by the strong observed density gradient. The increased vertical shear is accompanied by the development of stratified conditions due to local heating when the wind is not able to counteract (and destroy) stratification. The occasional influence of the Besòs river plume is observed in time scales of hours to days in a limited area in front of Barcelona. The area affected by the plume depends on the vertical extend of the fresher layer, the fast river discharge peak, and the relaxation of cross-shore velocities after northeast storm events. This contribution provides a first interpretation of the inner-shelf dynamics in the Catalan Sea.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Fracture in Westerly granite under AE feedback and constant strain rate loading: Nucleation, quasi-static propagation, and the transition to unstable fracture propagation

New observations of fracture nucleation are presented from three triaxial compression experiments on intact samples of Westerly granite, using Acoustic Emission (AE) monitoring. By conducting the tests under different loading conditions, the fracture process is demonstrated for quasi-static fracture (under AE Feedback load), a slowly developing unstable fracture (loaded at a 'slow' constant strain rate of 2.5 ?? 10-6/s) and an unstable fracture that develops near instantaneously (loaded at a 'fast' constant strain rate of 5 ?? 10-5/s). By recording a continuous ultrasonic waveform during the critical period of fracture, the entire AE catalogue can be captured and the exact time of fracture defined. Under constant strain loading, three stages are observed: (1) An initial nucleation or stable growth phase at a rate of ??? 1.3 mm/s, (2) a sudden increase to a constant or slowly accelerating propagation speed of ??? 18 mm/s, and (3) unstable, accelerating propagation. In the ??? 100 ms before rupture, the high level of AE activity (as seen on the continuous record) prevented the location of discrete AE events. A lower bound estimate of the average propagation velocity (using the time-to-rupture and the existing fracture length) suggests values of a few m/s. However from a low gain acoustic record, we infer that in the final few ms, the fracture propagation speed increased to 175 m/s. These results demonstrate similarities between fracture nucleation in intact rock and the nucleation of dynamic instabilities in stick slip experiments. It is suggested that the ability to constrain the size of an evolving fracture provides a crucial tool in further understanding the controls on fracture nucleation. ?? Birkha??user Verlag, Basel, 2006.

Conference Paper

Subduction zone geometry modulates the megathrust earthquake cycle: Magnitude, recurrence, and variability

Megathrust geometric properties exhibit some of the strongest correlations with maximum earthquake magnitude in global surveys of large subduction zone earthquakes, but the mechanisms through which fault geometry influences subduction earthquake cycle dynamics remain unresolved. Here, we develop 39 models of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) on variably-dipping planar and variably-curved nonplanar megathrusts using the volumetric, high-order accurate code tandem to account for fault curvature. We vary the dip, downdip curvature and width of the seismogenic zone to examine how slab geometry mechanically influences megathrust seismic cycles, including the size, variability, and interevent timing of earthquakes. Dip and curvature control characteristic slip styles primarily through their influence on seismogenic zone width: wider seismogenic zones allow shallowly-dipping megathrusts to host larger earthquakes than steeply-dipping ones. Under elevated pore pressure and less strongly velocity-weakening friction, all modeled fault geometries host uniform periodic ruptures. In contrast, shallowly-dipping and sharply-curved megathrusts host multi-period supercycles of slow-to-fast, small-to-large slip events under higher effective stresses and more strongly velocity-weakening friction. We discuss how subduction zones' maximum earthquake magnitudes may be primarily controlled by the dip and dimensions of the seismogenic zone, while second-order effects from structurally-derived mechanical heterogeneity modulate the recurrence frequency and timing of these events. Our results suggest that enhanced co- and interseismic strength and stress variability along the megathrust, such as induced near areas of high or heterogeneous fault curvature, limits how frequently large ruptures occur and may explain curved faults' tendency to host more frequent, smaller earthquakes than flat faults.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Application-ready expedited MODIS data for operational land surface monitoring of vegetation condition

Monitoring systems benefit from high temporal frequency image data collected from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) system. Because of near-daily global coverage, MODIS data are beneficial to applications that require timely information about vegetation condition related to drought, flooding, or fire danger. Rapid satellite data streams in operational applications have clear benefits for monitoring vegetation, especially when information can be delivered as fast as changing surface conditions. An “expedited” processing system called “eMODIS” operated by the U.S. Geological Survey provides rapid MODIS surface reflectance data to operational applications in less than 24 h offering tailored, consistently-processed information products that complement standard MODIS products. We assessed eMODIS quality and consistency by comparing to standard MODIS data. Only land data with known high quality were analyzed in a central U.S. study area. When compared to standard MODIS (MOD/MYD09Q1), the eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maintained a strong, significant relationship to standard MODIS NDVI, whether from morning (Terra) or afternoon (Aqua) orbits. The Aqua eMODIS data were more prone to noise than the Terra data, likely due to differences in the internal cloud mask used in MOD/MYD09Q1 or compositing rules. Post-processing temporal smoothing decreased noise in eMODIS data.

Remote Sensing

The drying regimes of non-perennial rivers and streams

The flow regime paradigm is central to the aquatic sciences, where flow drives critical functions in lotic systems. Non-perennial streams comprise the majority of global river length, thus we extended this paradigm to stream drying. Using 894 USGS gages, we isolated 25,207 drying events from 1979 to 2018, represented by a streamflow peak followed by no flow. We calculated hydrologic signatures for each drying event and using multivariate statistics, grouped events into drying regimes characterized by: (a) fast drying, (b) long no-flow duration, (c) prolonged drying following low antecedent flows, (d) drying without a distinctive hydrologic signature. 77% of gages had more than one drying regime at different times within the study period. Random forests revealed land cover/use are more important to how a river dries than climate or physiographic characteristics. Clustering stream drying behavior may allow practitioners to more systematically adapt water resource management practices to specific drying regimes or rivers.

Geophysical Research Letters