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USGS2024

Bringing traits back in the equation: A roadmap to understand species redistribution

Ecological and evolutionary theories have proposed that species traits should be important in mediating species responses to contemporary climate change; yet, empirical evidence has so far provided mixed evidence for the role of behavioral, life history, or ecological characteristics in facilitating or hindering species range shifts. As such, the utility of trait-based approaches to predict species redistribution under climate change has been called into question. We develop the perspective, supported by evidence, that trait variation, if used carefully can have high potential utility, but that past analyses have in many cases failed to identify an explanatory value for traits by not fully embracing the complexity of species range shifts. First, we discuss the relevant theory linking species traits to range shift processes at the leading (expansion) and trailing (contraction) edges of species distributions and highlight the need to clarify the mechanistic basis of trait-based approaches. Second, we provide a brief overview of range shift–trait studies and identify new opportunities for trait integration that consider range-specific processes and intraspecific variability. Third, we explore the circumstances under which environmental and biotic context dependencies are likely to affect our ability to identify the contribution of species traits to range shift processes. Finally, we propose that revealing the role of traits in shaping species redistribution may likely require accounting for methodological variation arising from the range shift estimation process as well as addressing existing functional, geographical, and phylogenetic biases. We provide a series of considerations for more effectively integrating traits as well as extrinsic and methodological factors into species redistribution research. Together, these analytical approaches promise stronger mechanistic and predictive understanding that can help society mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS1988

The ecology of the soft-bottom benthos of San Francisco Bay: a community profile

This profile, part of a series of profiles concerning coastal habitats of the United States, is a detailed examination of the soft-bottom benthos of San Francisco Bay. A U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and California Department of Fish and Game report (1979) entitled "Protection and Restoration of San Francisco Bay Fish and Wildlife Habitat" provides clear recognition of the importance of intertidal and subtidal soft-bottom habitats and their associated organisms to the bay's birds and fishes and to the overall functioning of the estuary. The purpose of this profile is to provide a description of the structure and functioning of the benthic community in San Francisco Bay (exclusive of its tidal marshes, which are discussed by M. Josselyn [1983] in another profile). The habitats covered in this volume include all nonvegetated soft-bottom intertidal and subtidal areas of the bay between the Golden Gate and the mouths of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers to the northeast, and to the southern extremity of the bay. The profile provides a reference to the scientific information concerning the animals and plants of the bay's benthic communities, their importance to the bay ecosystem, and their value as a resource measured in human terms. Because there have been few process-oriented studies of the benthos of San Francisco Bay (e.g., field and laboratory rate-measurement experiments), the material presented herein is largely descriptive. Nonetheless, we have described the processes that interconnect the various physical, chemical, and biological components of the benthic environment, and the important couplings between this environment and the water column above, with reference to research results from other estuaries where necessary. We consider the role of the benthic community as a food source for fish, aquatic birds, and humans; as a consumer or degrader of organic materials including wastes; as a recycler of minerals and nutrients; and as an accumulator of pollutants.

California↗

USGS2007

Proceedings of the first U.S. Geological Survey scientific information management workshop, March 21-23, 2006

In March 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) held the first Scientific Information Management (SIM) Workshop in Reston, Virginia. The workshop brought together more than 150 SIM professionals from across the organization to discuss the range and importance of SIM problems, identify common challenges and solutions, and investigate the use and value of “communities of practice” (CoP) as mechanisms to address these issues. The 3-day workshop began with presentations of SIM challenges faced by the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network and two USGS programs from geology and hydrology. These presentations were followed by a keynote address and discussion of CoP by Dr. Etienne Wenger, a pioneer and leading expert in CoP, who defined them as "groups of people who share a passion for something that they know how to do and who interact regularly to learn how to do it better." Wenger addressed the roles and characteristics of CoP, how they complement formal organizational structures, and how they can be fostered. Following this motivating overview, five panelists (including Dr. Wenger) with CoP experience in different institutional settings provided their perspectives and lessons learned. The first day closed with an open discussion on the potential intersection of SIM at the USGS with SIM challenges and the potential for CoP. The second session began the process of developing a common vocabulary for both scientific data management and CoP, and a list of eight guiding principles for information management were proposed for discussion and constructive criticism. Following this discussion, 20 live demonstrations and posters of SIM tools developed by various USGS programs and projects were presented. Two community-building sessions were held to explore the next steps in 12 specific areas: Archiving of Scientific Data and Information; Database Networks; Digital Libraries; Emerging Workforce; Field Data for Small Research Projects; Knowledge Capture; Knowledge Organization Systems and Controlled Vocabularies; Large Time Series Data Sets; Metadata; Portals and Frameworks; Preservation of Physical Collections; and Scientific Data from Monitoring Programs. In about two-thirds of these areas, initial steps to forming CoP are now underway. The final afternoon included a panel in which information professionals, managers, program coordinators, and associate directors shared their perspectives on the workshop, on ways in which the USGS could better manage its scientific information, and on the use of CoP as informal mechanisms to complement formal organizational structures. The final session focused on developing the next steps, an action plan, and a communication strategy to ensure continued development.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

A framework tool that applies weight-of-evidence integration to the analysis of existing datasets to guide freshwater conservation

The overarching issue we address here is how to extract clear and actionable ecological and management insights from real-world field data that often do not satisfy traditional statistical assumptions. Toward this goal, we developed a general 12+6 step adaptive management framework tool. We applied this framework tool to existing biodiversity monitoring data to create a proof-of-concept result that addresses the overarching question of “ why might a specific native stream fish taxon be present or absent at specific locations? ” Our multi-step framework tool links established steps and steps that are unique to our framework through weight-of evidence (WOE) integration, an approach that combines quantitative results from multiple visualization and statistical procedures. The systematic use of all steps in our framework can provide improved conservation outcomes compared to a single analysis. Advantages accrue from our approach because our framework tool refines the overarching goal into related sub-questions, applies a specific quantitative procedure to each sub-step, combines results from all sub-questions using a WOE integration, identifies testable questions that elucidate ambiguities and gaps revealed through WOE integration, and proposes practical field methods for obtaining this clarifying information through future research and data collections. The process of considering multiple visualizations and analyses as individual pieces of a shared puzzle offers a new way to approach the use of existing data. Our team-based approach transforms the collection and analysis of existing data into a series of field tests that can guide future actions (e.g., data collection-analysis events, restoration initiatives, research). Habitat and impact regressors will vary with taxa and system, but our structured process tool has broad generality for a range of conservation issues in which freshwater systems are threatened by human impacts.

Kansas↗

USGS2023

Where forest may not return in the western United States

Droughts that are hotter, more frequent, and last longer; pest outbreaks that are more extensive and more common; and fires that are more frequent, more extensive, and perhaps more severe have raised concern that forests in the western United States may not return once disturbed by one or more of these agents. Numerous field-based studies have been undertaken to better understand forest response to these changing disturbance regimes. Meta-analyses of these studies provide broad guidelines on the biotic and abiotic factors that hinder forest recovery, but study-to-study differences in methods and objectives do not support estimation of the total extent of potentially impaired forest succession. In this research, we provide an estimate of the area of potentially impaired forest succession. The estimate was derived from modeling of an 18-year land cover and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series supported by an extensive ancillary dataset. We estimate an upper bound of approximately 3470 km 2 of disturbed forest that may not return or reattain prior composition and structure. Based on the data used, fire appears to be the main disturbance agent of impaired forest succession, although climatic factors cannot be discounted. The numerous field studies routinely cite distal seed sources as a factor that hinders forest recovery, and we estimate that 20 % of the upper bound estimate has no forest cover within a 4.4-ha neighborhood. Our upper bound estimate is about 0.5 % of the 2001 mapped extent of western United States forests. The estimate is cognizant of measurement and modeling uncertainties (i.e., upper bound) and uncertainties related to successional rates and trajectories (i.e., potential).

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2025

Mapping ecological states in the upper Colorado River basin: Implications for fire management

Spatially explicit information on ecosystem dynamics that offers a mechanistic understanding of ecological processes can benefit environmental management. Broad-scale maps based on state-and-transition models provide valuable insight into transitions among ecological states resulting from specific drivers within areas sharing similar climatic and edaphic characteristics ecological sites (ES). We aimed to quantify ecological dynamics of two ES groups in the Upper Colorado River Basin from 1986 to 2022 through annual maps of ecological states and assess potential drivers of observed state change. This region comprises important sagebrush shrublands and pinyon-juniper woodlands affected by non-native annual grass invasion, wildfires, and drought-induced tree mortality. Using field-based and remote sensing data, we modeled vegetation states using random forest models and mapped the states annually from 1986 to 2022. To demonstrate the utility of the state maps for monitoring and management, we used this time series of maps to investigate the influences of fire and drought on state occurrence. Our findings revealed a statistically significant increase in states invaded by non-native annual species (Invaded state), which replaced Grassland and Shrubland states, while Shrubland states decreased significantly, transitioning to invaded and Woodland states. Invaded states had the highest likelihood of burning, followed by Woodlands. Drought was associated with increased area of Grassland and Bare states, but with decreased area of invaded and Shrubland states. These results indicate an accelerating fire cycle is potentially leading to ongoing regional environmental degradation. Despite increasing drought conditions during the study period, the invaded states continued to increase in area, indicating additional underlying mechanisms. Our reproducible, broad-scale, ecologically-driven state mapping process enhances understanding of how drought, fire, and invasion by non-native plants can transform semiarid landscapes of the western USA.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Does incorporating gear selectivity during macroscale investigations of fish growth reduce size-selective sampling bias in parameter estimates?

Understanding of fish growth, the spatial variability in individual growth, and the potential drivers of such variability is a fundamental component of many ecological investigations. However, sampling gears are always size-selective, and this selectivity can result in biased parameter estimates that can lead to, for example, biased stock assessments that use growth estimates. Using seven flathead catfish ( Pylodictis olivaris ) populations from across the USA as an example, we investigated to what degree the incorporation of gear selectivity in growth models reduces size-selective bias in the estimation of growth parameters during macroscale investigations of fish growth. We developed a series of simulation scenarios by combining different sampling methods to obtain fish samples and different gear selectivity assumptions to estimate parameters. Results showed that the efficacy of incorporating gear selectivity in growth models to reduce size-selective sampling bias during macroscale investigations depends on multiple factors, including ( i ) the size distribution of small and large fish in the sample (which is a function of sampling methods), and ( ii ) consistency of sampling methods across populations. Incorporation of gear selectivity may reduce bias when data are lacking for large fish and when sampling methods are inconsistent across populations. Demographics of the sampled populations and the growth parameter of interest can also affect the utility of directly incorporating gear selectivity into growth models. Because multiple factors can influence the efficacy of incorporating gear selectivity into growth models, the decision to do so likely needs to be made on a case-by-case basis. This study extends the existing gear selectivity research by focusing on macroscale fish growth investigations across multiple populations and provides guidance on how to handle gear selectivity assumptions during such investigations.

Canadian Journal Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2012

Hydrologic and landscape database for the Cache and White River National Wildlife Refuges and contributing watersheds in Arkansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma

A hydrologic and landscape database was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, for the Cache River and White River National Wildlife Refuges and their contributing watersheds in Arkansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma. The database is composed of a set of ASCII files, Microsoft Access® files, Microsoft Excel® files, an Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcGIS® geodatabase, ESRI ArcGRID® raster datasets, and an ESRI ArcReader® published map. The database was developed as an assessment and evaluation tool to use in examining refuge-specific hydrologic patterns and trends as related to water availability for refuge ecosystems, habitats, and target species; and includes hydrologic time-series data, statistics, and hydroecological metrics that can be used to assess refuge hydrologic conditions and the availability of aquatic and riparian habitat. Landscape data that describe the refuge physiographic setting and the locations of hydrologic-data collection stations are also included in the database. Categories of landscape data include land cover, soil hydrologic characteristics, physiographic features, geographic and hydrographic boundaries, hydrographic features, regional runoff estimates, and gaging-station locations. The database geographic extent covers three hydrologic subregions—the Lower Mississippi–St Francis (0802), the Upper White (1101), and the Lower Arkansas (1111)—within which human activities, climatic variation, and hydrologic processes can potentially affect the hydrologic regime of the refuges and adjacent areas. Database construction has been automated to facilitate periodic updates with new data. The database report (1) serves as a user guide for the database, (2) describes the data-collection, data-reduction, and data-analysis methods used to construct the database, (3) provides a statistical and graphical description of the database, and (4) provides detailed information on the development of analytical techniques designed to assess water availability for ecological needs.

Arkansas;Missouri;Oklahoma↗

USGS2014

Conservation and management of fisheries and aquatic communities in Great Lakes connecting channels

The North American Laurentian Great Lakes are linked by a unique series of riverine and lacustrine waters known as the Great Lakes connecting channels that are as integral to the basin's ecology and economies as the lakes themselves. The St. Marys River (SMR) is the northernmost channel and flows from Lake Superior to Lake Huron. Waters from the upper Great Lakes (Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron) empty from Lake Huron via the St. Clair–Detroit River system (SCDRS, also known as the Huron–Erie Corridor) into Lake Erie. The SCDRS is composed of the St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair, and the Detroit River. The Niagara River (NR) serves as the outflow from Lake Erie into Lake Ontario. The NR above Niagara Falls is bisected by Grand Island and contains several other islands and man-made embayments whereas the NR below the falls is more linear. The outflow from Lake Ontario, representing the natural outlet of all the Great Lakes, is the St. Lawrence River (SLR) which empties into the Gulf of St. Lawrence in the northwest Atlantic Ocean.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2012

Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed climate indices, referred to as bioclimatic predictors, which highlight climate conditions best related to species physiology. A set of 20 bioclimatic predictors were developed as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) continuous raster surfaces for each year between 1895 and 2009. The Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and down-scaled PRISM data, which included both averaged multi-year and averaged monthly climate summaries, was used to develop these multi-scale bioclimatic predictors. Bioclimatic predictors capture information about annual conditions (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, annual range in temperature and precipitation), as well as seasonal mean climate conditions and intra-year seasonality (temperature of the coldest and warmest months, precipitation of the wettest and driest quarters). Examining climate over time is useful when quantifying the effects of climate changes on species' distributions for past, current, and forecasted scenarios. These data, which have not been readily available to scientists, can provide biologists and ecologists with relevant and multi-scaled climate data to augment research on the responses of species to changing climate conditions. The relationships established between species demographics and distributions with bioclimatic predictors can inform land managers of climatic effects on species during decisionmaking processes.

Data Series↗

USGS2018

The confluences of ideas leading to, and the flow of ideas emerging from, individual-based modeling of riverine fishes

In this review article, we trace the history of events leading to the development of individual-based models (IBMs) to represent aquatic organisms in rivers and streams. As a metaphor, we present this history as a series of confluences between individual scientists (tributaries) sharing ideas. We describe contributions of these models to science and management. One iconic feature of river IBMs is the linkage between flow and the physical habitat experienced by individual animals, and the first model that focused on this linkage is briefly described. We continue by reviewing the contributions of riverine IBMs to eight broad areas of scientific inquiry. The first four areas include research to understand 1) the effects of flow regimes on fish populations, 2) species interactions (e.g., size-mediated competition and predation), 3) fish movement and habitat selection, and 4) contaminant and water quality impacts on populations. Next, we review research using IBMs 5) to guide conservation biology of imperiled taxa through population viability analysis, including research 6) to understand river fragmentation by dams and reconnection, 7) to understand genetic outcomes for riverine metapopulations, and 8) to anticipate the future effects of temperature and climate change. This rich body of literature has contributed to both theoretical insights (e.g., about animal behavior and life history) and applied insights (e.g., population-level effects of flow regimes, temperature, and the effects of hydropower and other industries that share rivers with aquatic biota). We finish by exploring promising branches that lie ahead in the braided, downstream channel that represents future river modeling research.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2018

Long Island South Shore Estuary Reserve Coordinated Water Resources Monitoring Strategy

Executive Summary The Long Island South Shore Estuary Reserve Coordinated Water Resources Monitoring Strategy (CWRMS) provides an overview of the water-quality and ecological monitoring within the Reserve and presents suggestions from stakeholders for future data collection, data management, and coordination among monitoring programs. The South Shore Estuary Reserve, hereafter referred to as the Reserve, is a 173-square-mile network of bays and tributaries shaped by the south shore of Long Island (New York) and the barrier islands that was formed as a result of the last ice age (roughly 18,000 years ago). This overview and coordination document is based on information assembled from a series of meetings, a workshop, and individual correspondences with the CWRMS Project Advisory Committee, which was formed in 2015 to help guide the creation of the document, which reflects the current (2017) status of the Reserve and the need for additional data to address its water-quality issues and ecological health and to respond to a changing climate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New York State Department of State Office of Planning, Development and Community Infrastructure and the South Shore Estuary Reserve Office, compiled information and recommendations to help stakeholders efficiently evaluate waters currently being monitored and address areas where necessary data are lacking. Water-quality monitoring in the Reserve is ongoing on the Federal, State, and local levels, and coordination among the various programs administered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; USGS; Shinnecock Tribal Nation; New York State; Nassau and Suffolk Counties; the Towns of Hempstead, Oyster Bay, Babylon, Islip, Brookhaven, and Southampton; and local universities and nonprofit organizations is necessary to ensure cooperation and efficient use of limited resources. Proper collection and archival of data are critical to the usability of data and methods—a sample of available repositories for monitoring data are provided in this report. Equally important are quality assurances of data and proper techniques of archival such that water and ecological data are collected and analyzed in a consistent manner, regardless of their sources, and that differences in methodologies are identified that might result in discrepancies in the compiled data. Details on monitoring programs, data gaps that are perceived by stakeholders and researchers in the area, and Project Advisory Committee recommendations are provided in this report to promote discussion and coordination. In most cases, resources to fill data gaps are needed, and the use of citizen science volunteers has been shown to help extend programs and provide insight into previously unaddressed areas of concern. This document, in conjunction with the CWRMS website and interactive mapper, is intended to inform the latest iteration of the Comprehensive Management Plan for the Reserve. Moreover, resource managers can use the CWRMS and mapper to identify areas of potential overlap and initiate conversations with stakeholders about addressing needs for additional monitoring of water quality and ecological health in the bays and tributaries of the Reserve.

New York↗

USGS2001

Ecotoxicology of Wild Mammals

An international group of 32 scientists has critically reviewed the scientific literature on exposure and effects of environmental contaminants in wild mammals. The underlying theme of this text is encompassed by the following four questions: What exactly do we know about environmental contaminants in mammals? What are the commonalities and differences between mammal orders/species in the effects that contaminants have? How and to what degree of accuracy can we predict the adverse effects of environmental contaminants on mammalian wildlife? How significant are contaminant insults compared with other density-independent and -dependent factors such as habitat loss, climatic factors and disease? The book is organized three topical sections including introductory chapters that provide a background on environmental contaminants and the mammalian orders, eight taxonomic chapters discussing all aspects of the exposure to and effects of contaminants in mammalian orders, and four thematic chapters that review and discuss generic issues including biomarkers, prediction and extrapolation of exposure and effects, hazard and risk assessment, and the relative significance of contaminants on mammals compared with other commonly encountered stressors. A final a summary chapter identifies phylogenetic trends, critical data gaps, and overarching research needs. Although the absolute number of toxicological studies in domesticated and wild mammals eclipses that wildlife species, a detailed examination of our knowledge base reveals that information for 'wild' birds is actually greater than that for 'wild' mammals. Of the various mammalian taxa, ecotoxicological data is most noticeably lacking for marsupials and monotremes. In contrast, rodents (comprising 43% of all mammal species) have been studied extensively, despite evidence of their tolerance to some organochlorine compounds, rodenticides, and even radionuclides. Mammalian species at greatest risk of exposure include those that consume a high percentage of their body weight on a daily basis. Aquatic mammals tend to bioaccumulate tremendous burdens of lipophilic contaminants, although storage in their fat depots may actually limit toxicity. Carnivores appear to be more sensitive to adverse effects of environmental contaminants than herbivores. Remarkably few of the thousands of compounds manufactured worldwide have been toxicologically evaluated in wild mammals, and concentrations of even fewer have been monitored in tissues.

Ecological & Environmental Toxicology Series.↗

USGS2017

Complex networks of functional connectivity in a wetland reconnected to its floodplain

Disturbances such as fire or flood, in addition to changing the local magnitude of ecological, hydrological, or biogeochemical processes, can also change their functional connectivity—how those processes interact in space. Complex networks offer promise for quantifying functional connectivity in watersheds. The approach resolves connections between nodes in space based on statistical similarities in perturbation signals (derived from solute time series) and is sensitive to a wider range of timescales than traditional mass-balance modeling. We use this approach to test hypotheses about how fire and flood impact ecological and biogeochemical dynamics in a wetland (Everglades, FL, USA) that was reconnected to its floodplain. Reintroduction of flow pulses after decades of separation by levees fundamentally reconfigured functional connectivity networks. The most pronounced expansion was that of the calcium network, which reflects periphyton dynamics and may represent an indirect influence of elevated nutrients, despite the comparatively smaller observed expansion of phosphorus networks. With respect to several solutes, periphyton acted as a “biotic filter,” shifting perturbations in water-quality signals to different timescales through slow but persistent transformations of the biotic community. The complex-networks approach also revealed portions of the landscape that operate in fundamentally different regimes with respect to dissolved oxygen, separated by a threshold in flow velocity of 1.2 cm/s, and suggested that complete removal of canals may be needed to restore connectivity with respect to biogeochemical processes. Fire reconfigured functional connectivity networks in a manner that reflected localized burn severity, but had a larger effect on the magnitude of solute concentrations.

Florida↗

USGS2012

Ecosystem performance monitoring of rangelands by integrating modeling and remote sensing

Monitoring rangeland ecosystem dynamics, production, and performance is valuable for researchers and land managers. However, ecosystem monitoring studies can be difficult to interpret and apply appropriately if management decisions and disturbances are inseparable from the ecosystem's climate signal. This study separates seasonal weather influences from influences caused by disturbances and management decisions, making interannual time-series analysis more consistent and interpretable. We compared the actual ecosystem performance (AEP) of five rangeland vegetation types in the Owyhee Uplands for 9 yr to their expected ecosystem performance (EEP). Integrated growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data for each of the nine growing seasons served as a proxy for annual AEP. Regression-tree models used long-term site potential, seasonal weather, and land cover data sets to generate annual EEP, an estimate of ecosystem performance incorporating annual weather variations. The difference between AEP and EEP provided a performance measure for each pixel in the study area. Ecosystem performance anomalies occurred when the ecosystem performed significantly better or worse than the model predicted. About 14% of the Owyhee Uplands showed a trend of significant underperformance or overperformance ( P <0.10). Land managers can use results from weather-based rangeland ecosystem performance models to help support adaptive management strategies.

Oregon;Idaho↗

USGS2015

Process, policy, and implementation of pool-wide drawdowns on the Upper Mississippi River: a promising approach for ecological restoration of large impounded rivers

The Upper Mississippi River (UMR) has been developed and subsequently managed for commercial navigation by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). The navigation pools created by a series of lock and dams initially provided a complex of aquatic habitats that supported a variety of fish and wildlife. However, biological productivity declined as the pools aged. The River Resources Forum, an advisory body to the St. Paul District of the USACE, established a multiagency Water Level Management Task Force (WLMTF) to evaluate the potential of water level management to improve ecological function and restore the distribution and abundance of fish and wildlife habitat. The WLMTF identified several water level management options and concluded that summer growing season drawdowns at the pool scale offered the greatest potential to provide habitat benefits over a large area. Here we summarize the process followed to plan and implement pool-wide drawdowns on the UMR, including involvement of stakeholders in decision making, addressing requirements to modify reservoir operating plans, development and evaluation of drawdown alternatives, pool selection, establishment of a monitoring plan, interagency coordination, and a public information campaign. Three pool-wide drawdowns were implemented within the St. Paul District and deemed successful in providing ecological benefits without adversely affecting commercial navigation and recreational use of the pools. Insights are provided based on more than 17 years of experience in planning and implementing drawdowns on the UMR.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2019

Abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) off central California during the 2018 breeding season

Executive Summary Marbled murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) have been listed as “endangered” by the State of California and “threatened” by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 1992 in California, Oregon, and Washington. Information regarding marbled murrelet abundance, distribution, population trends, and habitat associations is critical for risk assessment, effective management, evaluation of conservation efficacy, and ultimately, to meet Federal- and State-mandated recovery efforts for this species. During June–August 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center continued previously established, long-term (1999–2018), at-sea surveys to estimate abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conservation Zone 6 (San Francisco Bay to Point Sur in central California). Using conventional distance sampling methods, we estimated marbled murrelet abundance using 137 detections of 227 individuals observed on 9 surveys. The abundance estimated for the entire study area using all surveys in 2018 was 370 birds (95-percent confidence interval, 250–546 birds). Estimated abundance from 2018 is comparable to most prior years of study, except for 2001–03, when greater abundances were estimated. In 2018, we estimated reproductive productivity (calculated as the hatch-year [HY] to after-hatch-year [AHY] ratio) using four detections of four HY individuals observed on six surveys. After date-correcting HY and AHY counts to account for birds expected to be absent from the water while inland at nests, the date-corrected juvenile ratio was 0.047 ± 0.024 standard error. We updated a synthesized database of all Zone 6 marbled murrelet survey data since 1999 with 2018 data to allow scientists and managers to evaluate established survey methods and assess trends in abundance and productivity estimates.

California↗

USGS2010

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold, temperature); and. (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-y.r periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators. ?? 2010 by the Ecological society of America.

Ecological Applications↗