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At least 1,423 records · Page 79Linked to original sources

USGS1977

Graphic analysis of resources by numerical evaluation techniques (Garnet)

An interactive computer program for graphical analysis has been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The program embodies five goals, (1) economical use of computer resources, (2) simplicity for user applications, (3) interactive on-line use, (4) minimal core requirements, and (5) portability. It is designed to aid (1) the rapid analysis of point-located data, (2) structural mapping, and (3) estimation of area resources. ?? 1977.

Computers & Geosciences↗

USGS2020

Natural gas hydrates: Status of potential as an energy resource

Gas hydrate is a widespread naturally-occurring combination of water and natural gases. Gas hydrate is found in shallow sediments of deepwater regions of the continental margins and in areas of continuous permafrost. Where gas supply is sufficient and migration pathways connect gas sources to favorable reservoirs, gas hydrate can accumulate to resource densities that may be attractive for gas production. Global research on the potential commercial viability of gas extraction from gas hydrates continues, predominantly in Asia and in the United States, where current efforts focus on the controlled destabilization of high-saturation deposits housed in sand and/or silt-rich reservoirs. This chapter reviews the current state of gas hydrate resource exploration and appraisal, the most promising production approaches identified to date, and the likely technical challenges to commercial production.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

The National Wind Erosion Research Network: Building a standardized long-term data resource for aeolian research, modeling and land management

The National Wind Erosion Research Network was established in 2014 as a collaborative effort led by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the United States Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management, to address the need for a long-term research program to meet critical challenges in wind erosion research and management in the United States. The Network has three aims: (1) provide data to support understanding of basic aeolian processes across land use types, land cover types, and management practices, (2) support development and application of models to assess wind erosion and dust emission and their impacts on human and environmental systems, and (3) encourage collaboration among the aeolian research community and resource managers for the transfer of wind erosion technologies. The Network currently consists of thirteen intensively instrumented sites providing measurements of aeolian sediment transport rates, meteorological conditions, and soil and vegetation properties that influence wind erosion. Network sites are located across rangelands, croplands, and deserts of the western US. In support of Network activities, http://winderosionnetwork.org was developed as a portal for information about the Network, providing site descriptions, measurement protocols, and data visualization tools to facilitate collaboration with scientists and managers interested in the Network and accessing Network products. The Network provides a mechanism for engaging national and international partners in a wind erosion research program that addresses the need for improved understanding and prediction of aeolian processes across complex and diverse land use types and management practices.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota↗

USGS2007

The geochemistry of groundwater resources in the Jordan Valley: The impact of the Rift Valley brines

The chemical composition of groundwater in the Jordan Valley, along the section between the Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea, is investigated in order to evaluate the origin of the groundwater resources and, in particular, to elucidate the role of deep brines on the chemical composition of the regional groundwater resources in the Jordan Valley. Samples were collected from shallow groundwater in research boreholes on two sites in the northern and southern parts of the Jordan Valley, adjacent to the Jordan River. Data is also compiled from previous published studies. Geochemical data (e.g., Br/Cl, Na/Cl and SO 4 /Cl ratios) and B, O, Sr and S isotopic compositions are used to define groundwater groups, to map their distribution in the Jordan valley, and to evaluate their origin. The combined geochemical tools enabled the delineation of three major sources of solutes that differentially affect the quality of groundwater in the Jordan Valley: (1) flow and mixing with hypersaline brines with high Br/Cl (>2 × 10 −3 ) and low Na/Cl (<0.8) ratios; (2) dissolution of highly soluble salts (e.g., halite, gypsum) in the host sediments resulting in typically lower Br/Cl signal (<2 × 10 −3 ); and (3) recharge of anthropogenic effluents, primarily derived from evaporated agricultural return flow that has interacted (e.g., base-exchange reactions) with the overlying soil. It is shown that shallow saline groundwaters influenced by brine mixing exhibit a north–south variation in their Br/Cl and Na/Cl ratios. This chemical trend was observed also in hypersaline brines in the Jordan valley, which suggests a local mixing process between the water bodies.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS2011

A decision-analytic approach to the optimal allocation of resources for endangered species consultation

The resources available to support conservation work, whether time or money, are limited. Decision makers need methods to help them identify the optimal allocation of limited resources to meet conservation goals, and decision analysis is uniquely suited to assist with the development of such methods. In recent years, a number of case studies have been described that examine optimal conservation decisions under fiscal constraints; here we develop methods to look at other types of constraints, including limited staff and regulatory deadlines. In the US, Section Seven consultation, an important component of protection under the federal Endangered Species Act, requires that federal agencies overseeing projects consult with federal biologists to avoid jeopardizing species. A benefit of consultation is negotiation of project modifications that lessen impacts on species, so staff time allocated to consultation supports conservation. However, some offices have experienced declining staff, potentially reducing the efficacy of consultation. This is true of the US Fish and Wildlife Service's Washington Fish and Wildlife Office (WFWO) and its consultation work on federally-threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). To improve effectiveness, WFWO managers needed a tool to help allocate this work to maximize conservation benefits. We used a decision-analytic approach to score projects based on the value of staff time investment, and then identified an optimal decision rule for how scored projects would be allocated across bins, where projects in different bins received different time investments. We found that, given current staff, the optimal decision rule placed 80% of informal consultations (those where expected effects are beneficial, insignificant, or discountable) in a short bin where they would be completed without negotiating changes. The remaining 20% would be placed in a long bin, warranting an investment of seven days, including time for negotiation. For formal consultations (those where expected effects are significant), 82% of projects would be placed in a long bin, with an average time investment of 15. days. The WFWO is using this decision-support tool to help allocate staff time. Because workload allocation decisions are iterative, we describe a monitoring plan designed to increase the tool's efficacy over time. This work has general application beyond Section Seven consultation, in that it provides a framework for efficient investment of staff time in conservation when such time is limited and when regulatory deadlines prevent an unconstrained approach. ?? 2010.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2014

Resource selection and space use by sea ducks during the non-breeding season: Implications for habitat conservation planning in urbanized estuaries

Wide-ranging marine birds rely on multiple habitats for wintering, breeding, and migrating, and their conservation may be dependent on protecting networks of key areas. Urbanized estuaries are critical wintering and stopover areas for many declining sea ducks in North America; however, conservation measures within estuaries are difficult to establish given lack of knowledge about habitat use by these species and the variety of competing human interests. We applied hierarchical modeling to evaluate resource selection of sea ducks (surf scoters, Melanitta perspicillata) wintering in San Francisco Bay, California, USA, a large and highly urbanized estuary. We also examined their distribution, home range, and movements with respect to key habitat features and regions within the estuary. Herring roe was the strongest predictor of bird locations; however, eelgrass, water depth and salinity were also highly-ranked, with sea ducks using deeper areas of higher salinity associated with herring roe and eelgrass presence during mid-winter. Sea ducks were also strongly associated with ferry routes, suggesting these areas may contain resources that are too important to avoid and emphasizing the need to better understand water traffic effects. Movements and home range size differed between males and females in early winter but became more similar in late winter. Birds traveled farther and used several sub-bays in early winter compared to mid-winter when herring roe availability peaked in the Central Bay. Our findings identified key environmental variables, highlighted core use areas, and documented critical periods for consideration when developing conservation plans for sea ducks in urbanized estuaries.

California↗

USGS2026

The Sedimentary Geochemistry and Paleoenvironments Project Phase 2 data release: An open data resource for the study of Earth's environmental history

Geochemical data from sedimentary rocks are the primary source of information regarding Earth's surface evolution through time, including its air and water envelopes and interactions with life and deep Earth processes. The Sedimentary Geochemistry and Paleoenvironments Project (SGP) is a scientific consortium centered around open data and community-driven development of cyberinfrastructure tools and resources for sedimentary geochemistry and Earth history. Here we describe the SGP Phase 2 data release, which focused on incorporating Paleoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic (2500–1000 million years ago) data and better accommodating carbonate data. This data release was built through the involvement of >200 researchers worldwide in academia, government, and industry, and provides the largest available public data resource for our user community in the academic fields of geochemistry, sedimentology, tectonics, paleontology, Earth history, and paleoclimate, as well as the petroleum and minerals industries. The dataset now encompasses 126,006 samples and 4,132,371 geochemical analyses. In addition to direct entry by SGP Team Members, we have ingested and incorporated datasets from the Geoscience Australia OZCHEM database, the Alberta Geological Survey, and the Deep-Time Marine Sedimentary Element Database (DM-SED) compilation. This paper details sampling in the Phase 2 dataset with respect to age, geography, lithology, and other geological characteristics, documents access via our search website and API, discusses possible issues and/or biases in the dataset that could impact analyses, describes plans for governance and stewardship of data from Indigenous lands, and serves as the citable reference paper for the data release.

Chemical Geology↗

USGS2010

Coalbed methane resources of the Appalachian Basin, eastern USA

In 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessed the technically recoverable, undiscovered coalbed-gas resources in the Appalachian basin and Black Warrior basin Assessment Provinces as about 15.5 trillion cubic feet. Although these resources are almost equally divided between the two areas, most of the production occurs within relatively small areas within these Provinces, where local geological and geochemical attributes have resulted in the generation and retention of large amounts of methane within the coal beds and have enhanced the producibility of the gas from the coal. In the Appalachian basin, coalbed methane (CBM) tests are commonly commercial where the cumulative coal thickness completed in wells is greater than three meters (10 ft), the depth of burial of the coal beds is greater than 100 m (350 ft), and the coal is in the thermogenic gas window. In addition to the ubiquitous cleating within the coal beds, commercial production may be enhanced by secondary fracture porosity related to supplemental fracture systems within the coal beds. In order to release the methane from microporus coal matrix, most wells are dewatered prior to commercial production of gas. Two Total Petroleum Systems (TPS) were defined by the USGS during the assessment: the Pottsville Coal-bed gas TPS in Alabama, and the Carboniferous Coal-bed Gas TPS in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, and Alabama. These were divided into seven assessment units, of which three had sufficient data to be assessed. Production rates are higher in most horizontal wells drilled into relatively thick coal beds, than in vertical wells; recovery per unit area is greater, and potential adverse environmental impact is decreased.

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Maryland, North Caroli↗

USGS2013

Development of web-based organic petrology photomicrograph atlases and internet resources for professionals and students

With advances in web applications, organic petrography and other related disciplines are in need of updated online resources and educational tools to aid professionals and students in the identification and interpretation of macerals. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Organic Petrology Laboratory along with USGS Eastern Energy Resources Science Center Information Technology staff have developed five web atlases containing images of organic matter in geologic materials: 1. an American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Atlas, 2. an Organic Petrology Taxonomy for International Classification (OPTIC) of Coal Macerals Atlas, 3. an Interactive Gulf Coast Photomicrograph Web Atlas (I-Map), 4. an Organic Material in Shales Atlas (Shale), and 5. an interactive Blue/White/Ultraviolet (UV) Light Atlas (Light). Each web atlas contains images of macerals with associated sample and petrographic data collected by the USGS. These webpages will provide means to preserve and circulate petrographic data collected by the USGS for coal and shale samples from all over the world.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2023

Merging machine learning and geostatistical approaches for spatial modeling of geoenergy resources

Geostatistics is the most commonly used probabilistic approach for modeling earth systems, including quality parameters of various geoenergy resources. In geostatistics, estimates, either on a point or block support, are generated as a spatially-weighted average of surrounding samples. The optimal weights are determined through the stationary variogram model which accounts for the spatial structure of the samples. Recently, efficient modeling workflows using various machine learning algorithms (MLAs) have been expanded to the spatial context for modeling geological heterogeneity. The flexible use of MLAs as a spatial estimation tool stems mainly from the fact that unlike kriging, they do not require any variogram, nor do they depend strongly on a prior stationarity assumption (i.e., second order stationarity). This study evaluates the performance of two MLAs (ensemble super learner and elliptical radial basis neural network), ordinary kriging, and hybrid spatial modeling approaches using ordinary intrinsic collocated cokriging. The aforementioned modeling techniques are compared for estimating resources for four coal variables (wash yield, ash yield, calorific value and thickness) as an example. The results suggest that MLAs, when implemented alone, do not outperform ordinary kriging, but the estimation accuracy of the final model, measured by the root mean squared error tends to subtly improve (

Virginia↗

USGS2014

Geologic assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in Aptian carbonates, onshore northern Gulf of Mexico Basin, United States

Carbonate lithofacies of the Lower Cretaceous Sligo Formation and James Limestone were regionally evaluated using established U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessment methodology for undiscovered conventional hydrocarbon resources. The assessed area is within the Upper Jurassic–Cretaceous–Tertiary Composite total petroleum system, which was defined for the assessment. Hydrocarbons reservoired in carbonate platform Sligo-James oil and gas accumulations are interpreted to originate primarily from the Jurassic Smackover Formation. Emplacement of hydrocarbons occurred via vertical migration along fault systems; long-range lateral migration also may have occurred in some locations. Primary reservoir facies include porous patch reefs developed over paleostructural salt highs, carbonate shoals, and stacked linear reefs at the carbonate shelf margin. Hydrocarbon traps dominantly are combination structural-stratigraphic. Sealing lithologies include micrite, calcareous shale, and argillaceous lime mudstone. A geologic model, supported by discovery history analysis of petroleum geology data, was used to define a single regional assessment unit (AU) for conventional reservoirs in carbonate facies of the Sligo Formation and James Limestone. The AU is formally entitled Sligo-James Carbonate Platform Oil and Gas (50490121). A fully risked mean undiscovered technically recoverable resource in the AU of 50 million barrels of oil (MMBO), 791 billion cubic feet of natural gas (BCFG), and 26 million barrels of natural gas liquids was estimated. Substantial new development through horizontal drilling has occurred since the time of this assessment (2010), resulting in cumulative production of >200 BCFG and >1 MMBO.

Cretaceous Research↗

USGS2017

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

Climate Risk Management↗

USGS2022

Exposure of cultural resources to 21st-century climate change: Towards a risk management plan

Anthropogenic climate change during the 21st century presents a significant challenge to the protection of cultural resources (CRs) on federal lands that encompass ∼ 28% of the U.S. In particular, CRs on this land base may be adversely affected by a wide range of climate-change hazards, including damage by sea-level rise, enhanced deterioration by increasing temperature and precipitation, and destruction by more-frequent and severe wildfire. Most current measures to manage the impacts of hazards on CRs use vulnerability assessments, but because these require that all CRs be treated as having an equal chance of being affected by climate-change hazards (i.e., equal exposure) across large landscapes, the cost and resources required for such analyses are overwhelming to land management agencies. Projections of changes in many hazards, however, show that the probability of hazard occurrence will be unevenly distributed on the landscape. Incorporating this information into a risk assessment thus allows CR managers to prioritize their efforts on assessing impacts to CRs in those areas where the probability of the hazard is greatest, thus increasing efficiency. We provide several heuristic examples of implementing the first part of a CR risk assessment by using 21st-century projections of several hazards most likely to adversely affect CRs on nine National Forests (NFs) managed by the U.S. Forest Service in northern Idaho and Montana. Overlaying the projected distribution of hazards on these NFs with the distribution of CRs identifies CR exposure that, with information on their vulnerability, is required to determine risk. Additional policy and field studies will be needed to determine how to prioritize those CRs that are most at risk according to their significance as well as identify how impacts can be reduced and managed through adaptation planning and implementation. Adaptation will follow the iterative risk management process particularly by improving projection resolution. Finer scale, process-based modeling informed by the highest priority CRs would also provide a means to assess various adaptation options that might change the estimated risk and increase the odds of CRs being as little affected as possible.

Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2026

Understanding the resource potential of natural hydrogen on Earth: Scientific gaps, uncertainties and recommendations

A comprehensive scientific research roadmap is essential to bridge knowledge gaps and deepen the understanding of key geological, geochemical, and geophysical aspects of natural hydrogen (H 2 ) as a potential new energy resource. This paper reviews major scientific uncertainties on natural H 2 , suggesting research priorities, as a guide for defining exploration strategies, techniques, and data interpretation. The uncertainties concern all phases of the natural H 2 cycle, from generation (source rocks) through migration (advection and diffusion) and accumulation (reservoir and cap rocks) to the application and interpretation of subsurface and surface geochemical and geophysical exploration techniques. Understanding H 2 sources and generation rates (the amount of H 2 generated by a given volume of rock over time) is crucial for determining whether a geological H 2 system operates as a short-term dynamic system with rapid H 2 production and release, or as a conventional gas system with long-term accumulations, analogous to petroleum reservoirs. Preliminary estimates for serpentinisation, radiolysis, and organic matter degradation suggest that H 2 generation is not inherently fast, especially for non-hydrothermal continental systems (crystalline basement of shields, ophiolites, peridotite massifs, sedimentary basins), and long-term accumulations, like those of fossil natural gas systems, represent the most likely scenario. The mechanisms of H 2 migration through geological formations require application of fundamental principles of fluid-flow physics, distinguishing advection and diffusion, as well as their forms (from gas-phase, bubble flows to aqueous solutions). Additional studies of H 2 accumulation and retention in subsurface reservoirs could improve understanding of mechanisms of H 2 migration by focusing on the rock fluid-bearing properties and the factors affecting H 2 preservation, such as the presence of cap rocks impermeable to H 2 , pressure conditions, residence times, and microbial or abiotic consumption. Advanced techniques, including reservoir modelling, flow simulations, 3D imaging (micro-CT) of H 2 -bearing rocks, and extraction and analysis of gas occluded in rocks, can provide insights into the stability and potential recoverability of H 2 accumulations. The interpretation of surface exploration techniques, including gas geochemistry, geophysics, and remote sensing, long employed in mineral and energy resource exploration, is now being adapted for natural H 2 studies, but challenges remain in the data interpretation. Distinguishing H 2 seepage due to geological degassing from H 2 produced near the surface by modern microbial processes or artificial sources, such as hammering or drilling for soil-gas sampling, drilling into aquifers, and corrosion in boreholes, is an essential step in exploration. The simple detection of H 2 in soils, even in morphological structures like sub-circular depressions or “fairy circles”, cannot be cursorily interpreted as a signal of natural H 2 seepage from a deep source. A holistic geochemical approach, including isotopic analyses of gases associated with H 2 , is recommended to distinguish among the variety of possible H 2 origins. Observations of H 2 in wells should be interrogated to rule out possible artifacts such as corrosion and drill bit metamorphism. The integration of multiple geophysical methods, including seismic, gravimetric, magnetic, and electro-magnetic surveys, is recommended to mitigate interpretation ambiguities regarding the structure of a subsurface H 2 system (source and reservoir rocks, including fluid and gas storage), due to the non-uniqueness of rock-specific physical properties.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2015

Linking resource selection and mortality modeling for population estimation of mountain lions in Montana

To be most effective, the scale of wildlife management practices should match the range of a particular species’ movements. For this reason, combined with our inability to rigorously or regularly census mountain lion populations, several authors have suggested that mountain lions be managed in a source-sink or metapopulation framework. We used a combination of resource selection functions, mortality estimation, and dispersal modeling to estimate cougar population levels in Montana statewide and potential population level effects of planned harvest levels. Between 1980 and 2012, 236 independent mountain lions were collared and monitored for research in Montana. From these data we used 18,695 GPS locations collected during winter from 85 animals to develop a resource selection function (RSF), and 11,726 VHF and GPS locations from 142 animals along with the locations of 6343 mountain lions harvested from 1988–2011 to validate the RSF model. Our RSF model validated well in all portions of the State, although it appeared to perform better in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) Regions 1, 2, 4 and 6, than in Regions 3, 5, and 7. Our mean RSF based population estimate for the total population (kittens, juveniles, and adults) of mountain lions in Montana in 2005 was 3926, with almost 25% of the entire population in MFWP Region 1. Estimates based on a high and low reference population estimates produce a possible range of 2784 to 5156 mountain lions statewide. Based on a range of possible survival rates we estimated the mountain lion population in Montana to be stable to slightly increasing between 2005 and 2010 with lambda ranging from 0.999 (SD = 0.05) to 1.02 (SD = 0.03). We believe these population growth rates to be a conservative estimate of true population growth. Our model suggests that proposed changes to female harvest quotas for 2013–2015 will result in an annual statewide population decline of 3% and shows that, due to reduced dispersal, changes to harvest in one management unit may affect population growth in neighboring units where smaller or even no changes were made. Uncertainty regarding dispersal levels and initial population density may have a significant effect on predictions at a management unit scale (i.e. 2000 km 2 ), while at a regional scale (i.e. 50,000 km 2 ) large differences in initial population density result in relatively small changes in population growth rate, and uncertainty about dispersal may not be as influential. Doubling the presumed initial density from a low estimation of 2.19 total animals per 100 km 2 resulted in a difference in annual population growth rate of only 2.6% statewide when compared to high density of 4.04 total animals per 100 km 2 (low initial population estimate λ = 0.99, while high initial population estimate λ = 1.03). We suggest modeling tools such as this may be useful in harvest planning at a regional and statewide level.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2026

Vulnerability of mangrove resources to sea-level rise on Sanibel Island, Florida, USA

Accelerating sea-level rise (SLR) is poised to reshape coastal environments over the coming decades, providing a challenge to land managers who need actionable information. Mangroves have an innate ability to keep pace with some SLR but may drown under the higher rates projected by the end of the century. Understanding local mangrove resilience to SLR requires understanding of historic and contemporary accretion rates, productivity, and forest elevations relative to tidal inundation. We applied the WARMER3 modeling framework to assess future mangrove resilience to SLR and blue carbon storage across the “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel Island in southwest Florida, USA. We found that Sanibel mangroves are sensitive to the SLR scenario, with projected losses ranging from 19 to 70% by 2100. Across SLR scenarios, projected areal extent was similar until about 2035 and then diverge, coincident with projected acceleration in the rate of SLR. Threshold analysis indicates found that Sanibel mangroves are likely to submerge when rates exceed 6.5 mm yr −1 . Currently, the mangrove forest of our study domain holds an estimated 214,000 Mg of carbon but is likely to decrease as mangroves convert to open water in the second half of this century. For “Ding” Darling, these site-specific projections identify when losses in mangrove resources are most likely, providing a basis to prioritize local management actions and conservation resources.

Florida↗

USGS2025

Favorability mapping for hydrothermal power resource assessments of the Great Basin, USA

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating the 2008 assessment of conventional hydrothermal resources for the Great Basin in the western United States. As part of this work, the workflow for hydrothermal resource favorability maps is being modified to integrate modern data-driven machine learning (ML) methods. Improvements include: [1] using new and refined evidence layers (features); [2] using an order of magnitude more training sites (labeled examples); [3] utilizing simple but non-linear supervised ML algorithms; [4] representing positive training sites (wells with measured heat flow) with their ordinal value proportional to the magnitude of convective upflow (i.e., low, high, or very high convective signals instead of past strategies using positive-negative labels); [5] supplementing training sites with additional sites with low convective signals to represent diverse under-sampled areas where hydrothermal systems are unlikely to exist; [6] comparing with competing approaches; and [7] utilizing Monte Carlo cross-validation to estimate and evaluate prediction uncertainty. For the new favorability map, over half of the power-producing systems (i.e., 15 of 28) are predicted in the 99th percentile of most favorable locations (i.e., the highest 1 % of favorability, corresponding to 1 % of the map area), exceeding the performance of past models that have explicitly used power plants as training sites. Previous favorability maps predicted approximately half of the power-producing hydrothermal systems above the 80th percentile (i.e., 20 % of the map area). For the new favorability map, 93 % of power-producing systems (i.e., 26 of 28) are above the 80th percentile. The power-producing systems for which the new model does not perform well are either comparatively small, low-temperature systems or systems also not predicted well by prior modeling approaches, suggesting that these few systems are unusual when compared with most power-producing systems. Focusing research on these known, seemingly different systems may yield new insights and subsequent discovery of new prospects.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2005

Multi-stage sampling for large scale natural resources surveys: A case study of rice and waterfowl

Large-scale sample surveys to estimate abundance and distribution of organisms and their habitats are increasingly important in ecological studies. Multi-stage sampling (MSS) is especially suited to large-scale surveys because of the natural clustering of resources. To illustrate an application, we: (1) designed a stratified MSS to estimate late autumn abundance (kg/ha) of rice seeds in harvested fields as food for waterfowl wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV); (2) investigated options for improving the MSS design; and (3) compared statistical and cost efficiency of MSS to simulated simple random sampling (SRS). During 2000–2002, we sampled 25–35 landowners per year, 1 or 2 fields per landowner per year, and measured seed mass in 10 soil cores collected within each field. Analysis of variance components and costs for each stage of the survey design indicated that collecting 10 soil cores per field was near the optimum of 11–15, whereas sampling >1 field per landowner provided few benefits because data from fields within landowners were highly correlated. Coefficients of variation (CV) of annual estimates of rice abundance ranged from 0.23 to 0.31 and were limited by variation among landowners and the number of landowners sampled. Design effects representing the statistical efficiency of MSS relative to SRS ranged from 3.2 to 9.0, and simulations indicated SRS would cost, on average, 1.4 times more than MSS because clustering of sample units in MSS decreased travel costs. We recommend MSS as a potential sampling strategy for large-scale natural resource surveys and specifically for future surveys of the availability of rice as food for waterfowl in the MAV and similar areas.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missou↗