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USGS2020

Analyzing vegetation change in a sagebrush ecosystem using long-term field observations and Landsat imagery in Wyoming

The importance of monitoring shrublands to detect and understand changes through time is increasingly recognized as critical to management. This research focuses on ecological change observed over 10 yr of field observation at 126 plots and over 35 yr of the Landsat archive in a shrubland ecosystem. Field data consisting of the fractional cover of shrubs, sagebrush, herbs, litter, and bare ground components were collected to be directly comparable to Landsat time-series predictions at an ecoregion level. We used these data to test three hypotheses. First, that precipitation and temperature govern changes in the proportions of shrubland components on an interannual time scale. Second, that longer-term component change is related to climate change. Finally, that change intensity varies by shrubland communities clustered by biophysical conditions. We found that the field observations and Landsat times-series predictions generally responded similarly to interannual variation in weather, chiefly driven by precipitation. Landsat times-series data provided a reasonable means of scaling up the findings of the field observations to a larger temporal and spatial window. The results of the analysis indicate that shrubland component change intensity significantly varies by biophysical clusters, and indicate a significant increase in the cover of shrubs and sagebrush in long-term monitoring plots between 2008 and 2017 and in the Landsat time-series data across the Wyoming Basin study area from 1985 to 2017 and from 2008 to 2017. Our results indicate that the Landsat time series can be used to answer critical questions regarding the influence of climate change and the suitability of management practices in shrubland ecosystems.

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Considerations for building climate-based species distribution models

Climate plays an important role in the distribution of species. A given species may adjust to new conditions in-place, move to new areas with suitable climates, or go extinct. Scientists and conservation practitioners use mathematical models to predict the effects of future climate change on wildlife and plan for a biodiverse future. This 8-page fact sheet written by David N. Bucklin, Mathieu Basille, Stephanie S. Romañach, Laura A. Brandt, Frank J. Mazzotti, and James I. Watling and published by the Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation explains how, with a better understanding of species distribution models, we can predict how species may respond to climate change. The models alone cannot tell us how a certain species will actually respond to changes in climate, but they can inform conservation planning that aims to allow species to both adapt in place and (for those that are able to) move to newly suitable areas. Such planning will likely minimize loss of biodiversity due to climate change.

Report↗

USGS2025

Host responses and viral traits interact to shape the impacts of climate warming on highly pathogenic avian influenza in migratory waterfowl

Emerging infectious diseases pose threats to wildlife populations, as exemplified by recent outbreaks of avian influenza viruses in wild birds. Climate change can affect infection dynamics in wildlife through direct effects on pathogens (e.g., environmental decay rates) and changes to host ecology, including shifting migration patterns. Here, we adapt an existing mechanistic model that couples migration and infection to study how traits of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses contribute to HPAI outcomes in migratory waterfowl, then apply this model to explore potential impacts of climate change on HPAI dynamics. We find that the simulated impacts of HPAI on the host population under baseline climate conditions varied from no impact to 100% mortality, depending on viral traits. In most cases, traits related to transmission (i.e., contact rates, shedding rates) were more important for HPAI establishment probability, infection prevalence, and mortality than were other viral traits (e.g., environmental temperature sensitivity, cross-protective immunity). We then simulated the effects of climate change (i.e., altered temperature regimes) on HPAI dynamics both via viral environmental decay and via changes in bird migration phenology. In these simulations, we found that a 9-day advancement in spring migration timing increased the duration of HPAI outbreaks by increasing time birds spent at their breeding grounds, leading to higher mortality and fewer infections. In contrast, increased viral decay in warmer years had a smaller, but opposite impact. These patterns depended on the primary transmission mode of HPAI (i.e., direct vs. environmental) and its sensitivity to environmental temperatures. Together, these results suggest that climate change is likely to increase the impacts of HPAI on waterfowl populations if HPAI relies strongly on direct transmission and birds advance their spring migration. Further integrating host-viral co-evolution and other climatic changes (e.g., salinity, humidity) could provide more precise predictions of how HPAI dynamics could change in the future.

Alaska, California, Oregon↗

USGS2021

Interacting effects of density-dependent and density-independent factors on growth rates in southwestern Cutthroat Trout populations

Density-dependent (DD) and density-independent (DI) effects play an important role in shaping fish growth rates, an attribute that correlates with many life history traits in fishes. Consequently, understanding the extent to which DD and DI effects influence growth rates is valuable for fisheries assessments because it can inform managers about how populations may respond as environmental conditions continue to change (e.g., threats from climate change). We used a Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis (RGCT) capture–mark–recapture data set collected over 2 years along a temperature and density gradient in northern New Mexico streams to test the extent to which DD and DI effects interact to influence specific growth rates. We found that temperature (DI) and density (DD) interacted with RGCT life stage (i.e., immature or mature) to affect growth rates. We only detected evidence of a negative DD effect on RGCT growth for the immature fraction of a population when exposed to the warmest stream temperatures. Our results suggest that competition most strongly affected the immature portion of RGCT populations, and this effect was only detectable when temperatures were warmest and energetic stress was likely at its highest. The quadratic relationship between temperature and growth rates also demonstrated that stream temperatures were below as well as above optimal growth temperatures for RGCT. Growth rates in our RGCT populations were influenced by complex interactions of DD and DI effects, and our results suggest that the negative consequences of warming trends associated with climate change on RGCT populations may be exacerbated by DD effects.

New Mexico↗

USGS2020

Altered climate leads to positive density‐dependent feedbacks in a tropical wet forest

Climate change is predicted to result in warmer and drier Neotropical forests relative to current conditions. Negative density‐dependent feedbacks, mediated by natural enemies, are key to maintaining the high diversity of tree species found in the tropics, yet we have little understanding of how projected changes in climate are likely to affect these critical controls. Over 3 years, we evaluated the effects of a natural drought and in situ experimental warming on density‐dependent feedbacks on seedling demography in a wet tropical forest in Puerto Rico. In the +4°C warming treatment, we found that seedling survival increased with increasing density of the same species (conspecific). These positive density‐dependent feedbacks were not associated with a decrease in aboveground natural enemy pressure. If positive density‐dependent feedbacks are not transient, the diversity of tropical wet forests, which may rely on negative density dependence to drive diversity, could decline in a future warmer, drier world.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2023

Long-term biocrust responses to wildfires in Washington, USA

Premise Dryland ecosystems in the western United States are affected by invasive species, wildfires, livestock grazing, and climate change in ways that are difficult to distinguish. Biocrusts perform important ecological roles in these systems and are sensitive to all of these pressures. Methods We revisited a Washington, USA, site sampled for biocrusts in 1999 to focus on effects of exotic annual grass invasion and wildfires in the absence of livestock grazing. We examined changes between 1999 and 2020 using a Bayesian directed acyclic graph (DAG) to interpret direct and indirect causal impacts of wildfire on perennial bunchgrasses, exotic annual grasses, and biocrusts. Results Between 1999 and 2020, exotic annual grass cover increased in all plots and in unburned plots by 16% and 18%, respectively, bunchgrass cover decreased by 21% and 25%, and biocrust cover decreased by 8.9% and 9.8%. Our DAG suggested that decreases in bunchgrass increased exotic annual grass, which reduced biocrust cover. Wildfires did not directly influence changes in bunchgrass, exotic annual grass, or biocrust cover. Areas dominated by exotic annual grass had less abundant and diverse biocrusts than areas with less exotic annual grass. Conclusions Biocrust community changes were more strongly related to increasing exotic annual grasses than to wildfires. Changes may relate to other soil disturbances or broad-scale changes in climate or air quality. The minimal influence of wildfire on exotic annual grass and biocrusts suggests that apparent negative impacts of wildfire at other sites may be due to exacerbation by livestock grazing or other surface disturbance.

American Journal of Botany↗

USGS2024

Seasonal resource selection of a grassland bird in a dynamic landscape: Importance of a heterogeneous landscape

Habitat loss and fragmentation are a growing threat to wildlife, and a better understanding of these landscape processes is needed to mitigate their effects on species populations. Grassland biomes are among the most imperiled ecosystems in the world, and grassland birds are experiencing significant population declines in North America. Understanding how species respond to differences in resource availabilities across spatiotemporal extents is critical to determining animals' distributions. Here, we investigated the relationship of landscape attributes to spatiotemporal distribution of a grassland bird, the ring-necked pheasant ( Phasianus colchicus ), which has experienced population declines in the Midwest, USA. Pheasant declines have been attributed to two anthropogenic stressors, land use change and climate change. In this study, we evaluated the effect of landscape attributes (composition and configuration) on the home-range size and resource selection of pheasants. We used a 95% fixed kernel estimator to estimate home-range size and identified scales at which landscape features influenced home-range sizes. We quantified landscape features within radii of 250, 500, and 1000 m (i.e., local to broader spatial scales) from the home-range center. We also used resource selection functions to predict the home-range placement (second order) and resource selection within home ranges (third order) of pheasants during winter, pre-nesting, and nesting seasons. We developed multi-scale predictions of pheasant resource selection and identified wetlands, grasslands, Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands, and small grains as land cover types used by pheasants to fulfill their life requirements. Our results indicated home ranges were more likely to be in a landscape with more CRP, wetlands, and grasslands; more connected grasslands; and a greater number of grassland patches. Pheasants also selected heterogeneous landscape and avoided row crops at both orders of selection. Maintaining habitat heterogeneity, by managing landscapes composed of a high proportion of grasslands and CRP surrounded by small grains and wetlands, could enhance the benefits of local management practices for pheasants. Collectively, insights obtained from our study can advance habitat conservation efforts for similar grassland birds and consequently are of broad utility to biologists and wildlife managers.

South Dakota↗

USGS2021

A U.S.-China EcoPartnership study of disturbed wetland vegetation in West Dongting Lake, China

West Dongting Lake in China is important for human livelihoods and habitat of migratory waterfowl and other wildlife. The waterway re-engineering and agriculture intensification have contributed to changes in hydrology, sediment, and vegetation on the floodplain. This paper describes an EcoPartnership program conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, and Beijing Forestry University. It focused on the development of a wetland ecosystem network in West Dongting Lake with technical support from the U.S. partner using a number of related studies to examine wetland vegetation dynamics from upstream to downstream along the tributaries. The results of U.S. studies showed that the regeneration potential of species might be altered by changes in climate and local environment, and seed bank depletion by germination may be a major conservation threat in a future with recurring droughts in swamps of the southeastern United States. In the monsoonal wetlands of West Dongting Lake, the soil seed bank could be used as a seed source for revegetation after hydrologic restoration with the introduction of certain foundational species and the removal of poplar plantations. Also, West Dongting Lake is at high ecological risk of mercury pollution. Wetland ecosystem monitoring may allow managers to use the information to predict effects of climate change, water level and flow changes on sedimentation, and to manage for desired vegetation to support waterfowl and ecosystem services. The cooperation of two countries through the EcoPartnership program is now well established and poised for extensive research projects in the future.

West Dongting Lake↗

USGS2024

The use of conceptual ecological models to identify critical data and uncertainties to support numerical modeling: The northern Gulf of Mexico eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica example

Objective Increasing reliance on numerical simulation models to help inform management and restoration choices benefits from careful consideration of critical early steps in model development. Along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica fulfills important ecological and economic roles. Using the eastern oyster as an example, we draw on several recent frameworks outlining best practices for model development and application for restoration, conservation, and management. Methods We identify priority model questions, outline a conceptual ecological model (CEM) to guide numerical model development, and use this framework to identify uncertainties and research needs. Result The CEM uses a nested design, identifying explicit vital rates, processes, attributes, and outcomes for the species (oysters), population, and metapopulation (i.e., network of populations) levels in response to drivers of species, population, and metapopulation changes and changing environmental factors. Most management actions related to oyster restoration and harvest affect population attributes directly, but many coastal management actions and changes (i.e., climate change and coastal and water resource engineering) impact environmental factors that alter vital rates and attributes of oysters, populations, and metapopulations. Conclusion Investment in studies targeting individual oyster‐ and population‐level multi‐stressor responses (filtration, respiration, growth, and reproduction) and improving hydrodynamic and environmental models targeting drivers that influence metapopulation vital rates and attributes (i.e., connectivity and substrate persistence) would contribute to reducing uncertainties. Development of numerical models covering the entire oyster life cycle and connectivity of populations using hydrodynamic models of current and predicted conditions to provide key abiotic and biotic factors influencing larval movement, recruitment, and on‐reef oyster vital rates would assist in balancing the goals of conservation, restoration, and fisheries management of this foundational estuarine species.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗

USGS2010

The effects of land cover and land use change on the contemporary carbon balance of the arctic and boreal terrestrial ecosystems of northern Eurasia

Recent changes in climate, disturbance regimes and land use and management systems in Northern Eurasia have the potential to disrupt the terrestrial sink of atmospheric CO 2 in a way that accelerates global climate change. To determine the recent trends in the carbon balance of the arctic and boreal ecosystems of this region, we performed a retrospective analysis of terrestrial carbon dynamics across northern Eurasia over a recent 10-year period using a terrestrial biogeochemical process model. The results of the simulations suggest a shift in direction of the net flux from the terrestrial sink of earlier decades to a net source on the order of 45 Tg C year −1 between 1997 and 2006. The simulation framework and subsequent analyses presented in this study attribute this shift to a large loss of carbon from boreal forest ecosystems, which experienced a trend of decreasing precipitation and a large area burned during this time period.

Book chapter↗

USGS2009

Migratory decisions in birds: Extent of genetic versus environmental control

Migration is one of the most spectacular of animal behaviors and is prevalent across a broad array of taxa. In birds, we know much about the physiological basis of how birds migrate, but less about the relative contribution of genetic versus environmental factors in controlling migratory tendency. To evaluate the extent to which migratory decisions are genetically determined, we examined whether individual western burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) change their migratory tendency from one year to the next at two sites in southern Arizona. We also evaluated the heritability of migratory decisions by using logistic regression to examine the association between the migratory tendency of burrowing owl parents and their offspring. The probability of migrating decreased with age in both sexes and adult males were less migratory than females. Individual owls sometimes changed their migratory tendency from one year to the next, but changes were one-directional: adults that were residents during winter 2004-2005 remained residents the following winter, but 47% of adults that were migrants in winter 2004-2005 became residents the following winter. We found no evidence for an association between the migratory tendency of hatch-year owls and their male or female parents. Migratory tendency of hatch-year owls did not differ between years, study sites or sexes or vary by hatching date. Experimental provision of supplemental food did not affect these relationships. All of our results suggest that heritability of migratory tendency in burrowing owls is low, and that intraspecific variation in migratory tendency is likely due to: (1) environmental factors, or (2) a combination of environmental factors and non-additive genetic variation. The fact that an individual's migratory tendency can change across years implies that widespread anthropogenic changes (i.e., climate change or changes in land use) could potentially cause widespread changes in the migratory tendency of birds. ?? 2009 GovernmentEmployee: U. S. Geological Survey, Department of Interior.

Oecologia↗

USGS2014

Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

California↗

USGS2016

Observations and modeling of fjord sedimentation during the 30 year retreat of Columbia Glacier, AK

To explore links between glacier dynamics, sediment yields and the accumulation of glacial sediments in a temperate setting, we use extensive glaciological observations for Columbia Glacier, Alaska, and new oceanographic data from the fjord exposed during its retreat. High-resolution seismic data indicate that 3.2 × 10 8 m 3 of sediment has accumulated in Columbia Fjord over the past three decades, which corresponds to ~5 mm a −1 of erosion averaged over the glaciated area. We develop a general model to infer the sediment-flux history from the glacier that is compatible with the observed retreat history, and the thickness and architecture of the fjord sediment deposits. Results reveal a fivefold increase in sediment flux from 1997 to 2000, which is not correlated with concurrent changes in ice flux or retreat rate. We suggest the flux increase resulted from an increase in the sediment transport capacity of the subglacial hydraulic system due to the retreat-related steepening of the glacier surface over a known subglacial deep basin. Because variations in subglacial sediment storage can impact glacial sediment flux, in addition to changes in climate, erosion rate and glacier dynamics, the interpretation of climatic changes based on the sediment record is more complex than generally assumed.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Centennial-scale reductions in nitrogen availability in temperate forests of the United States

Forests cover 30% of the terrestrial Earth surface and are a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Humans have doubled the amount of global reactive nitrogen (N), increasing deposition of N onto forests worldwide. However, other global changes—especially climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations—are increasing demand for N, the element limiting primary productivity in temperate forests, which could be reducing N availability. To determine the long-term, integrated effects of global changes on forest N cycling, we measured stable N isotopes in wood, a proxy for N supply relative to demand, on large spatial and temporal scales across the continental U.S.A. Here, we show that forest N availability has generally declined across much of the U.S. since at least 1850 C.E. with cool, wet forests demonstrating the greatest declines. Across sites, recent trajectories of N availability were independent of recent atmospheric N deposition rates, implying a minor role for modern N deposition on the trajectory of N status of North American forests. Our results demonstrate that current trends of global changes are likely to be consistent with forest oligotrophication into the foreseeable future, further constraining forest C fixation and potentially storage.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2016

Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2019

Plasticity in elk migration timing is a response to changing environmental conditions

Migration is an effective behavioral strategy for prolonging access to seasonal resources and may be a resilient strategy for ungulates experiencing changing climatic conditions. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), elk are the primary ungulate, with approximately 20,000 individuals migrating to exploit seasonal gradients in forage while also avoiding energetically costly snow conditions. How climate-induced changes in plant phenology and snow accumulation are influencing elk migration timing is unknown. We present the most complete record of elk migration across the GYE, spanning 9 herds and 414 individuals from 2001 to 2017, to evaluate the drivers of migration timing and test for temporal shifts. The timing of elk departure from winter range involved a trade-off between current and anticipated forage conditions, while snow melt governed summer range arrival date. Timing of elk departure from summer range and arrival on winter range were both influenced by snow accumulation and exposure to hunting. At the GYE scale, spring and fall migration timing changed through time, most notably with winter range arrival dates becoming almost 50 days later since 2001. Predicted herd-level changes in migration timing largely agreed with observed GYE-wide changes—except for predicted winter range arrival dates which did not reflect the magnitude of change detected in the elk telemetry data. Snow melt, snow accumulation, and spring green-up dates all changed through time, with different herds experiencing different rates and directions of change. We conclude that elk migration is plastic, is a direct response to environmental cues, and that these environmental cues are not changing in a consistent manner across the GYE. The impacts of changing elk migration timing on predator–prey dynamics, carnivore–livestock conflict, disease ecology, and harvest management across the GYE are likely to be significant and complex.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2019

A high-resolution 1983-2016 Tmax climate data record based on InfraRed Temperatures and Stations by the Climate Hazard Center

Understanding the dynamics and physics of climate extremes will be a critical challenge for 21st century climate science. Increasing temperatures and saturation vapor pressures may exacerbate heat waves, droughts and precipitation extremes. Yet our ability to monitor temperature variations is limited and declining. Between 1983 and 2016 the number of observations in the CRU Tmax product declined precipitously (5,900→1,000); 1,000 poorly distributed measurements are not enough to resolve regional Tmax variations. Here we show that long (1983-near present) high resolution (0.05°), cloud-screened archives of geostationary satellite Thermal Infrared Red (TIR) observations, when combined with a dense set of ~15,000 station observations, can explain 23, 40, 30, 11% more variance than the CRU over the globe, South America, Africa, India and areas north of 50°N, with even greater levels of improvement over the 2011-2016 period (28, 45, 39, 52, 28%). Described here for the first time, the TIR Tmax algorithm uses sub-daily TIR distributions to screen out cloud contaminated observations, providing accurate (correlation≈0.8) gridded emission Tmax estimates. Blending these gridded fields with ~15,000 station observations provides a seamless, high-resolution source of accurate Tmax estimates that performs well in areas lacking dense in situ observations and even better where in situ observations are available. Cross-validation results indicates that the satellite-only, station-only and combined products all perform accurately (R≈0.8-0.9, mean absolute errors ≈0.8-1.0). Hence, the Climate Hazards center InfraRed Temperature with Stations (CHIRTSmax) data set should provide a valuable resource for climate change studies, climate extreme analyses, and early warning applications.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS2015

Drought-caused delay in nesting of Sonoran Desert birds and its facilitation of parasite- and predator-mediated variation in reproductive success

As our understanding of climate change has increased, so has our awareness of the impacts of these changes on biotic systems. Climate models are nearly unanimous in their predictions for increased drought frequency in southwestern North America, and delays in nest initiation due to drought may influence nesting success and productivity for many Sonoran Desert bird species. In southeastern California and western Arizona in 2004–2009, we found negative correlations for 13 of 13 species between nest initiation date and rainfall accumulation during the preceding 4-month winter rainy season. Nesting was delayed more than 3 weeks for some species during extreme droughts in 2006 and 2007. During 2004–2009, we found a significant negative effect of nest initiation date on nest survival probability (β̂ = −0.031 ± 0.005 SE, P < 0.001) for the four species of greatest sample size. To investigate the role of nesting delay in nesting success and productivity, in 2010 we conducted a manipulative experiment with Black-tailed Gnatcatchers ( Polioptila melanura ; BTGN) and Verdins ( Auriparus flaviceps ; VERD). Following a wet winter, we delayed clutch initiation dates for treatment pairs to match first-egg dates that we observed during droughts in 2006 and 2007. Nest initiation date had a significant negative effect on nest survival of both species (BTGN: β̂ = −1.18 ± 0.27 SE, P < 0.001; VERD: β̂ = −2.33 ± 0.51 SE, P = 0.003). Treatment pairs were unable to overcome the lost period of high productivity in March and early April, and had lower productivity than control pairs over the entire breeding season. As nest predation and Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ) parasitism were the most common causes of nest failure, we conclude that the impacts of climate change–caused drought on annual reproductive output in the Sonoran Desert will be further compounded by parasitism and predation for Black-tailed Gnatcatchers and by predation for Verdins.

The Auk↗