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USGS2022

Biophysical methods and data analysis for simulating overland flow in the Everglades

The Everglades in south Florida supply fresh drinking water for more than 7 million people, host a National Park, and are classified as a Ramsar wetland of international distinction. Predicting trajectories of water flow and water storage changes in the future is important to managing the Congressionally authorized restoration of the Everglades. Here we describe the needed data sources and analysis approaches to build the inputs for biophysically based modeling that can protect water and ecological resources in the face of changing water management and climate conditions. A biophysical approach to modeling overland flow in the Everglades can help predict future outcomes for ecological habitat, water storage during droughts, and water conveyance during floods. The needed data include measurements of vegetation stem architecture, microtopography, and landscape pattern metrics. Stem architecture measurements present the opportunity to estimate flow roughness of distinct vegetation communities based on hydraulic principles. At a larger scale, the microtopography and the connectivity of the sloughs between ridges offer a way to quantify the effects of flow blockage and tortuous flow paths on overland flow. Combined with theory these data provide the capacity to simulate overland flow in both the historical, pre-drainage Everglades as well as in the present-day managed Everglades. Also provided are the hydrologic data, e.g., water slopes, water depths and overland flow velocities, that can be used to verify a biophysical model. Ultimately, the purpose is to anticipate how changing flow and water depth will interact with evolving vegetation and landscape conditions to influence future water availability for society and for the ecosystem, both in the Everglades and in other low-gradient floodplains.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Deposition and accumulation of airborne organic contaminants in Yosemite National Park, Calfornia

Deposition and accumulation of airborne organic contaminants in Yosemite National Park were examined by sampling atmospheric deposition, lichen, zooplankton, and lake sediment at different elevations. Passive samplers were deployed in high‐elevation lakes to estimate surface‐water concentrations. Detected compounds included current‐use pesticides chlorpyrifos, dacthal, and endosulfans and legacy compounds chlordane, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane‐related compounds, dieldrin, hexachlorobenzene, and polychlorinated biphenyls. Concentrations in snow were similar among sites and showed little variation with elevation. Endosulfan concentrations in summer rain appeared to coincide with application rates in the San Joaquin Valley. More than 70% of annual pesticide inputs from atmospheric deposition occurred during the winter, largely because most precipitation falls as snow. Endosulfan and chlordane concentrations in lichen increased with elevation, indicating that mountain cold‐trapping might be an important control on accumulation of these compounds. By contrast, chlorpyrifos concentrations were inversely correlated with elevation, indicating that distance from source areas was the dominant control. Sediment concentrations were inversely correlated with elevation, possibly because of the organic carbon content of sediments but also perhaps the greater mobility of organic contaminants at lower elevations. Surface‐water concentrations inferred from passive samplers were at sub–parts‐per‐trillion concentrations, indicating minimal exposure to aquatic organisms from the water column. Concentrations in sediment generally were low, except for dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane in Tenaya Lake, which exceeded sediment guidelines for protection of benthic organisms.

California↗

USGS2013

Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: A role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks

Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2013

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

South Carolina↗

USGS2013

Accumulation of pesticides in pacific chorus frogs (Pseudacris regilla) from California's Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA

Pesticides are receiving increasing attention as potential causes of amphibian declines, acting singly or in combination with other stressors, but limited information is available on the accumulation of current-use pesticides in tissue. The authors examined potential exposure and accumulation of currently used pesticides in pond-breeding frogs (Pseudacris regilla) collected from 7 high elevations sites in northern California. All sites sampled are located downwind of California's highly agricultural Central Valley and receive inputs of pesticides through precipitation and/or dry deposition. Whole frog tissue, water, and sediment were analyzed for more than 90 current-use pesticides and pesticide degradates using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Two fungicides, pyraclostrobin and tebuconazole, and one herbicide, simazine, were the most frequently detected pesticides in tissue samples. Median pesticide concentration ranged from 13 µg/kg to 235 µg/kg wet weight. Tebuconazole and pyraclostrobin were the only 2 compounds observed frequently in frog tissue and sediment. Significant spatial differences in tissue concentration were observed, which corresponded to pesticide use in the upwind counties. Data generated indicated that amphibians residing in remote locations are exposed to and capable of accumulating current-use pesticides. A comparison of P. regilla tissue concentrations with water and sediment data indicated that the frogs are accumulating pesticides and are potentially a more reliable indicator of exposure to this group of pesticides than either water or sediment.

California↗

USGS2014

Sources of endocrine-disrupting compounds in North Carolina waterways: a geographic information systems approach

The presence of endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs), particularly estrogenic compounds, in the environment has drawn public attention across the globe, yet a clear understanding of the extent and distribution of estrogenic EDCs in surface waters and their relationship to potential sources is lacking. The objective of the present study was to identify and examine the potential input of estrogenic EDC sources in North Carolina water bodies using a geographic information system (GIS) mapping and analysis approach. Existing data from state and federal agencies were used to create point and nonpoint source maps depicting the cumulative contribution of potential sources of estrogenic EDCs to North Carolina surface waters. Water was collected from 33 sites (12 associated with potential point sources, 12 associated with potential nonpoint sources, and 9 reference), to validate the predictive results of the GIS analysis. Estrogenicity (measured as 17β-estradiol equivalence) ranged from 0.06 ng/L to 56.9 ng/L. However, the majority of sites (88%) had water 17β-estradiol concentrations below 1 ng/L. Sites associated with point and nonpoint sources had significantly higher 17β-estradiol levels than reference sites. The results suggested that water 17β-estradiol was reflective of GIS predictions, confirming the relevance of landscape-level influences on water quality and validating the GIS approach to characterize such relationships.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2016

Complex mixtures, complex responses: Assessing pharmaceutical mixtures using field and laboratory approaches

Pharmaceuticals are present in low concentrations (<100 ng/L) in most municipal wastewater effluents but may be elevated locally because of factors such as input from pharmaceutical formulation facilities. Using existing concentration data, the authors assessed pharmaceuticals in laboratory exposures of fathead minnows ( Pimephales promelas ) and added environmental complexity through effluent exposures. In the laboratory, larval and mature minnows were exposed to a simple opioid mixture (hydrocodone, methadone, and oxycodone), an opioid agonist (tramadol), a muscle relaxant (methocarbamol), a simple antidepressant mixture (fluoxetine, paroxetine, venlafaxine), a sleep aid (temazepam), or a complex mixture of all compounds. Larval minnow response to effluent exposure was not consistent. The 2010 exposures resulted in shorter exposed minnow larvae, whereas the larvae exposed in 2012 exhibited altered escape behavior. Mature minnows exhibited altered hepatosomatic indices, with the strongest effects in females and in mixture exposures. In addition, laboratory-exposed, mature male minnows exposed to all pharmaceuticals (except the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor mixture) defended nest sites less rigorously than fish in the control group. Tramadol or antidepressant mixture exposure resulted in increased splenic T lymphocytes. Only male minnows exposed to whole effluent responded with increased plasma vitellogenin concentrations. Female minnows exposed to pharmaceuticals (except the opioid mixture) had larger livers, likely as a compensatory result of greater prominence of vacuoles in liver hepatocytes. The observed alteration of apical endpoints central to sustaining fish populations confirms that effluents containing waste streams from pharmaceutical formulation facilities can adversely impact fish populations but that the effects may not be temporally consistent. The present study highlights the importance of including diverse biological endpoints spanning levels of biological organization and life stages when assessing contaminant interactions.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2021

Response to Gard et al.'s (2021) Comments on the Critical Review “Polychlorinated Biphenyl Tissue-Concentration Thresholds for Survival, Growth, and Reproduction in Fish”

This response is offered to the critique by Gard et al. ( 2021 ) of our meta-analysis of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-induced toxicity data in fish (Berninger and Tillitt 2019 ). Gard et al. ( 2021 ) offered numerous comments, the most substantive suggesting that 1) we should have added no-observable–adverse effect residue (NOAER) data from additional studies and all data points from selected studies, and 2) the uncertainty of aggregating data from different PCB mixtures, different species, and different life stages is too great based on a limited data set. The additional studies Gard et al. suggested either were not designed to produce toxicological data, had experimental design issues, were confounded by co-contaminants, or did not contain paired exposure–effects data and as such were not appropriate to add to the data set. Lowest-observable–adverse effect residue (LOAER) values were selected for our analysis because they represent population sensitivities from the central portions of a frequency distribution (the linear portion of dose–response curves). As a consequence, there is less uncertainty in these input data (LOAER values) and greater confidence that they accurately represent the response of fish populations tested. Modeling NOAER values is in the extrapolation portion of a dose–response relationship and subject to enhanced uncertainty. The Gard et al. ( 2021 ) critique ignores this fundamental principle of toxicology and adds/deletes data points from our data set without clear selection criteria, which artificially enhances the uncertainty of their models that ultimately are not useful. We reject the premise that it is better to use individual study data as opposed to aggregation of PCB-induced toxicity thresholds in fish.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2023

Ecological harm and economic damages of chemical contamination to linked aquatic-terrestrial food webs: A study-design tool for practitioners

Contamination of aquatic ecosystems can have cascading effects on terrestrial consumers by altering the availability and quality of aquatic insect prey. Comprehensive assessment of these indirect food-web effects of contaminants on natural resources and their associated services necessitates using both ecological and economic tools. In the present study we present an aquatic-terrestrial assessment tool (AT2), including ecological and economic decision trees, to aid practitioners and researchers in designing contaminant effect studies for linked aquatic-terrestrial insect-based food webs. The tool is tailored to address the development of legal claims by the US Department of the Interior's Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration Program, which aims to restore natural resources injured by oil spills and hazardous substance releases into the environment. Such cases require establishing, through scientific inquiry, the existence of natural resource injury as well as the determination of the monetary or in-kind project-based damages required to restore this injury. However, this tool is also useful to researchers interested in questions involving the effects of contaminants on linked aquatic-terrestrial food webs. Stylized cases exemplify how application of AT2 can help practitioners and researchers design studies when the contaminants present at a site are likely to lead to injury of terrestrial aerial insectivores through loss of aquatic insect prey and/or dietary contaminant exposure. Designing such studies with ecological endpoints and economic modeling inputs in mind will increase the relevance and cost-effectiveness of studies, which can in turn improve the outcomes of cases and studies involving the ecological effects of contaminants on food webs.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS1998

Acute toxicity of fire-retardant and foam-suppressant chemicals to early life stages of chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha )

Laboratorys studies were conducted to determine the acute toxicity of three fire retardants (Fire-Trol GTS-R, Fire-Trol LCG-R, and Phos-Chek D75-F), and two fire-suppressant foams (Phos-Chek WD-881 and Ansul Silv-Ex) to early life stages of chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha , in hard and soft water. Regardless of water type, swim-up fry and juveniles (60 and 90 d posthatch) exhibited similar sensitivities to each chemical and these life stages were more sensitive than eyed eggs. Foam suppressants were more toxic to each life stage than the fire retardants in both water types. The descending rank order of toxicity for these chemicals tested with swim-up fry and juveniles (range of 96-h median lethal concentrations [LC50s]) was Phos-Chek WD-881 (7–13 mg/L) > Ansul Silv-Ex (11–22 mg/L) > Phos-Chek D75-F (218–305 mg/L) > Fire-Trol GTS-R (218–412 mg/L) > Fire-Trol LCG-R (685–1,195 mg/L). Water type had a minor effect on the toxicity of these chemicals. Comparison of acute toxicity values with recommended application concentrations indicates that accidental inputs of these chemicals into stream environments would require substantial dilution (237- to 1,429-fold) to reach concentrations equivalent to their 96-h LC50s.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2001

A probabilistic model for silver bioaccumulation in aquatic systems and assessment of human health risks

Silver (Ag) is discharged in wastewater effluents and is also a component in a proposed secondary water disinfectant. A steady-state model was developed to simulate bioaccumulation in aquatic biota and assess ecological and human health risks. Trophic levels included phytoplankton, invertebrates, brown trout, and common carp. Uptake routes included water, food, or sediment. Based on an extensive review of the literature, distributions were derived for most inputs for use in Monte Carlo simulations. Three scenarios represented ranges of dilution and turbidity. Compared with the limited field data available, median estimates of Ag in carp (0.07-2.1 Iμg/g dry weight) were 0.5 to 9 times measured values, and all measurements were within the predicted interquartile range. Median Ag concentrations in biota were ranked invertebrates > phytoplankton > trout > carp. Biotic concentrations were highest for conditions of low dilution and low turbidity. Critical variables included Ag assimilation eficiency, specific feeding rate, and the phytoplankton bioconcentration factor. Bioaccumulation of Ag seems unlikely to result in txicity to aquatic biota and humans consuming fish. Although the highest predicted Ag concentrations in water (>200 ng/L) may pose chronic risks to early survival and development of salmonids and risks of argyria to subsistence fishers, these results occur under highly conservative conditions.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2001

Tumor prevalence and biomarkers of exposure in brown bullheads (Ameiurus nebulosus) from the tidal Potomac River, USA, watershed

Associations between contaminant exposure and liver and skin tumor prevalence were evaluated in brown bullheads ( Ameiurus nebulosus ) from the tidal Potomac River, USA, watershed. Thirty bullheads (≥ age 3) were collected from Quantico embayment, near a Superfund site that released organochlorine contaminants; Neabsco Creek, a tributary with petroleum inputs from runoff and marinas; and Anacostia River (spring and fall), an urban tributary designated as a Chesapeake Bay region of concern, that was contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and organochlorine pesticides. Fish were collected from the Tuckahoe River, as a reference. Cytochrome P450 activity, bile PAH metabolites, and muscle organochlorine pesticide and PCB concentrations were measured in randomly selected individuals and sediment contaminants were analyzed. We found statistically significant differences in liver tumor prevalences: Anacostia (spring), 50%; Anacostia (fall), 60%; Neabsco, 17%; Quantico, 7%; and Tuckahoe, 10%. Skin tumor prevalences were significantly different: Anacostia (spring), 37%; Anacostia (fall), 10%; Neabsco, 3%; Quantico, 3%; and Tuckahoe, 0%. Tumor prevalence in Anacostia bullheads warrants concern and was similar to those at highly contaminated sites in the Great Lakes. Evidence was found of higher PAH exposure in Anacostia fish but a cause-effect linkage could not be established. Fish tumor surveys, with histopathologic examination of internal and external organs, are recommended for monitoring the status of regions of concern.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2002

Wading birds as bioindicators of mercury contamination in Florida, USA: Annual and geographic variation

Mercury contamination in wetland biota is often dynamic, difficult to predict, and costly to track. In this paper, we present results from a six-year study of growing feathers of piscivorous birds as monitors of wetland Hg exposure in Florida, USA, wetlands. Between 1994 and 2000, we collected feathers of growing great egret ( Ardea alba ) nestlings from colonies in the freshwater Everglades of southern Florida, and during 1998, feathers were collected from chicks of both great egrets and white ibises ( Eudocimus albus ) at a variety of colonies throughout peninsular Florida. Coastal colonies showed significantly lower feather Hg concentrations than did inland sites. Within the Everglades, we found significant effects of both geographic location and year on age-adjusted mean total Hg concentrations in feathers. Over the course of our study, Everglades colonies maintained their Hg concentration rankings relative to one another, but all showed strongly declining Hg concentrations (mean of 73% averaged across colonies, between 1994 and 2000). Using a previously established predictive relationship between Hg consumption in food and feather Hg for great egrets, we estimated that Hg concentrations in the aggregate diet of egrets have been reduced by an average of 67%. We conclude that the Everglades has undergone a biologically significant decline in Hg availability in the wetland food web, possibly because of decreased local inputs.

Florida↗

USGS2002

Effects of depleted uranium on the health and survival of Ceriodaphnia dubia and Hyalella azteca

Depleted uranium (DU) has been used as a substitute for the fissionable enriched uranium component of atomic weapons tested at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) (Los Alamos, NM, USA) since the early 1950s, resulting in considerable concentrations of DU in the soils within the test sites. Although the movement of DU into major aquatic systems has been shown to be minimal, there are many small-order ephemeral streams and areas of standing water in canyons throughout LANL that may be affected by inputs of DU via runoff, erosion, and leaching. Ninety-six-hour acute and 7-d chronic toxicity assays were conducted to measure the toxicity of DU on survival and reproduction of Ceriodaphnia dubia. A 14-d water-only assay was conducted to measure survival and growth of Hyalella azteca. The estimated median lethal concentration (LC50) to produce 50% mortality of the test population for the 96-h Ceriodaphnia dubia assay was 10.50 mg/L. Reproductive effects occurred at a lowest-observable-effect concentration ≥ 3.91 mg/L with a no-observable-effect concentration of 1.97 mg/L. The estimated 14-d LC50 for the Hyalella azteca assay was 1.52 mg/L No significant relationship was detected between growth and DU concentrations. Concentrations at which toxicity effects were observed in this study for both invertebrates exceeded concentrations of total uranium observed in runoff from LANL lands. Thus, it is likely that current runoff levels of uranium do not pose a threat to these types of aquatic invertebrates.

New Mexico↗

USGS2017

Biological soil crusts: Diminutive communities of potential global importance

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widespread, diverse communities of cyanobacteria, fungi, lichens, and mosses living on soil surfaces, primarily in drylands. Biocrusts can locally govern primary production, soil fertility, hydrology, and surface energy balance, with considerable variation in these functions across alternate community states. Further, these communities have been implicated in Earth system functioning via potential influences on global biogeochemistry and climate. Biocrusts are easily destroyed by disturbances and appear to be exceptionally vulnerable to warming temperatures and altered precipitation inputs, signaling possible losses of dryland functions with global change. Despite these concerns, we lack sufficient spatiotemporal data on biocrust function, cover, and community structure to confidently assess their ecological roles across the extensive dryland biome. Here, we present the case for cross-scale research and restoration efforts coupled with remote-sensing and modeling approaches that improve our collective understanding of biocrust responses to global change and the ecological roles of these diminutive communities at global scales.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2002

Grid-cell-based crop water accounting for the famine early warning system

Rainfall monitoring is a regular activity of food security analysts for sub-Saharan Africa due to the potentially disastrous impact of drought. Crop water accounting schemes are used to track rainfall timing and amounts relative to phenological requirements, to infer water limitation impacts on yield. Unfortunately, many rain gauge reports are available only after significant delays, and the gauge locations leave large gaps in coverage. As an alternative, a grid-cell-based formulation for the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) was tested for maize in Southern Africa. Grids of input variables were obtained from remote sensing estimates of rainfall, meteorological models, and digital soil maps. The spatial WRSI was computed for the 1996–97 and 1997–98 growing seasons. Maize yields were estimated by regression and compared with a limited number of reports from the field for the 1996–97 season in Zimbabwe. Agreement at a useful level ( r = 0·80) was observed. This is comparable to results from traditional analysis with station data. The findings demonstrate the complementary role that remote sensing, modelling, and geospatial analysis can play in an era when field data collection in sub-Saharan Africa is suffering an unfortunate decline.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2014

Water's Way at Sleepers River watershed – revisiting flow generation in a post-glacial landscape, Vermont USA

The Sleepers River Research Watershed (SRRW) in Vermont, USA, has been the site of active hydrologic research since 1959 and was the setting where Dunne and Black demonstrated the importance and controls of saturation-excess overland flow (SOF) on streamflow generation. Here, we review the early studies from the SRRW and show how they guided our conceptual approach to hydrologic research at the SRRW during the most recent 25 years. In so doing, we chronicle a shift in the field from early studies that relied exclusively on hydrometric measurements to today's studies that include chemical and isotopic approaches to further elucidate streamflow generation mechanisms. Highlights of this evolution in hydrologic understanding include the following: (i) confirmation of the importance of SOF to streamflow generation, and at larger scales than first imagined; (ii) stored catchment water dominates stream response, except under unusual conditions such as deep frozen ground; (iii) hydrometric, chemical and isotopic approaches to hydrograph separation yield consistent and complementary results; (iv) nitrate and sulfate isotopic compositions specific to atmospheric inputs constrain new water contributions to streamflow; and (v) convergent areas, or ‘hillslope hollows’, contribute disproportionately to event hydrographs. We conclude by summarizing some remaining challenges that lead us to a vision for the future of research at the SRRW to address fundamental questions in the catchment sciences.

Vermont↗

USGS2015

Rethinking the longitudinal stream temperature paradigm: region-wide comparison of thermal infrared imagery reveals unexpected complexity of river temperatures

Prevailing theory suggests that stream temperature warms asymptotically in a downstream direction, beginning at the temperature of the source in the headwaters and leveling off downstream as it converges to match meteorological conditions. However, there have been few empirical examples of longitudinal patterns of temperature in large rivers due to a paucity of data. We constructed longitudinal thermal profiles (temperature versus distance) for 53 rivers in the Pacific Northwest (USA) using an extensive dataset of remotely sensed summertime river temperatures and classified each profile into one of five patterns of downstream warming: asymptotic (increasing then flattening), linear (increasing steadily), uniform (not changing), parabolic (increasing then decreasing), or complex (not fitting other classes). We evaluated (1) how frequently profiles warmed asymptotically downstream as expected, and (2) whether relationships between river temperature and common hydroclimatic variables differed by profile class. We found considerable diversity in profile shape, with 47% of rivers warming asymptotically, and 53% having alternative profile shapes. Water temperature did not warm substantially over the course of the river for coastal parabolic and uniform profiles, and for some linear and complex profiles. Profile classes showed no clear geographical trends. The degree of correlation between river temperature and hydroclimatic variables differed among profile classes, but there was overlap among classes. Water temperature in rivers with asymptotic or parabolic profiles was positively correlated with August air temperature, tributary temperature and velocity, and negatively correlated with elevation, August precipitation, gradient, and distance upstream. Conversely, associations were less apparent in rivers with linear, uniform, or complex profiles. Factors contributing to the unique shape of parabolic profiles differed for coastal and inland rivers, where downstream cooling was influenced locally by climate or cool water inputs, respectively. Potential drivers of shape for complex profiles were specific to each river. These thermal patterns indicate diverse thermal habitats that may promote resilience of aquatic biota to climate change. Without this spatial context, climate change models may incorrectly estimate loss of thermally suitable habitat.

California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗