The effect of data generalization on the prediction of hydrologic response
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Water-resources activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in Colorado consist of collecting water-resources data and doing interpretive hydrologic investigations. The water-resources data and the results of the investigations are published or released by either the U.S. Geological Survey or by cooperating agencies. Water-resources investigations in Colorado for the 1992-93 fiscal years (October 1,1991, to September 30,1993) are described in this report.
Topographic change of archeological sites within the Colorado River corridor of Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP) is a subject of interest to National Park Service managers and other stakeholders in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program. Although long-term topographic change resulting from a variety of natural processes is typical in the Grand Canyon region, a continuing debate exists on whether and how controlled releases from Glen Canyon Dam, located immediately upstream of GCNP, are impacting rates of site erosion, artifact transport, and the preservation of archeological resources. Continued erosion of archeological sites threatens both the archeological resources and our future ability to study evidence of past cultural habitation. Understanding the causes and effects of archaeological site erosion requires a knowledge of several factors including the location and magnitude of the changes occurring in relation to archeological resources, the rate of the changes, and the relative contribution of several potential causes, including sediment depletion associated with managed flows from Glen Canyon Dam, site-specific weather patterns, visitor impacts, and long-term climate change. To obtain this information, highly accurate, spatially specific data are needed from sites undergoing change. Using terrestrial lidar data collection techniques and novel TIN- and GRID-based change-detection post-processing methods, we analyzed topographic data for nine archeological sites. The data were collected using three separate data collection efforts spanning 16 months (May 2006 to September 2007). Our results documented positive evidence of erosion, deposition, or both at six of the nine sites investigated during this time interval. In addition, we observed possible signs of change at two of the other sites. Erosion was concentrated in established gully drainages and averaged 12 cm to 17 cm in depth with maximum depths of 50 cm. Deposition was concentrated at specific locations outside of drainages but generally was spread over larger areas (tens to hundreds of square meters). Maximum depths of deposition averaged 12 cm to 15 cm and reached as much as 35 cm. Overall, we found that the spatial distribution and magnitudes of surface change are specific to each site and that a thorough understanding of the geomorphology, weather, and sand supply is requisite for a complete understanding of the data. Additional work in combining these results with site-specific weather, hydrology, and geomorphology data will assist in the development of working models for determining the causes of the documented topographic changes.
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The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) is an international project aimed at developing enhanced techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters in hydrologic models and in land surface parameterization schemes of atmospheric models. The MOPEX science strategy involves three major steps: data preparation, a priori parameter estimation methodology development, and demonstration of parameter transferability. A comprehensive MOPEX database has been developed that contains historical hydrometeorological data and land surface characteristics data for many hydrologic basins in the United States (US) and in other countries. This database is being continuously expanded to include more basins in all parts of the world. A number of international MOPEX workshops have been convened to bring together interested hydrologists and land surface modelers from all over world to exchange knowledge and experience in developing a priori parameter estimation techniques. This paper describes the results from the second and third MOPEX workshops. The specific objective of these workshops is to examine the state of a priori parameter estimation techniques and how they can be potentially improved with observations from well-monitored hydrologic basins. Participants of the second and third MOPEX workshops were provided with data from 12 basins in the southeastern US and were asked to carry out a series of numerical experiments using a priori parameters as well as calibrated parameters developed for their respective hydrologic models. Different modeling groups carried out all the required experiments independently using eight different models, and the results from these models have been assembled for analysis in this paper. This paper presents an overview of the MOPEX experiment and its design. The main experimental results are analyzed. A key finding is that existing a priori parameter estimation procedures are problematic and need improvement. Significant improvement of these procedures may be achieved through model calibration of well-monitored hydrologic basins. This paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned, and points out further work and future strategy. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
This appendix presents a part of the basic data collected by the United States Geological Survey in cooperation with the San Bernardino County Flood Control District in the ground-water investigation of the San Bernardino area, California.
The stochastic empirical loading and dilution model (SELDM) was used to demonstrate methods for estimating risks for water-quality exceedances of event-mean concentrations (EMCs) of total-copper. Monte Carlo methods were used to simulate stormflow, total-hardness, suspended-sediment, and total-copper EMCs as stochastic variables. These simulations were done for the Charles River Basin upstream of Interstate 495 in Bellingham, Massachusetts. The hydrology and water quality of this site were simulated with SELDM by using data from nearby, hydrologically similar sites. Three simulations were done to assess the potential effects of the highway on receiving-water quality with and without highway-runoff treatment by a structural best-management practice (BMP). In the low-development scenario, total copper in the receiving stream was simulated by using a sediment transport curve, sediment chemistry, and sediment-water partition coefficients. In this scenario, neither the highway runoff nor the BMP effluent caused concentration exceedances in the receiving stream that exceed the once in three-year threshold (about 0.54 percent). In the second scenario, without the highway, runoff from the large urban areas in the basin caused exceedances in the receiving stream in 2.24 percent of runoff events. In the third scenario, which included the effects of the urban runoff, neither the highway runoff nor the BMP effluent increased the percentage of exceedances in the receiving stream. Comparison of the simulated geometric mean EMCs with data collected at a downstream monitoring site indicates that these simulated values are within the 95-percent confidence interval of the geometric mean of the measured EMCs.
Hydrologic and geophysical data were collected to support updates to an existing groundwater-flow model of Hinkley Valley, California, in the Mojave Desert about 80 miles northeast of Los Angeles, California. These data provide information on predevelopment (pre-1930) water levels, groundwater recharge, and selected hydrologic properties of aquifer materials. A predevelopment groundwater-level map, drawn using water-level measurements from 48 wells collected as early as 1918, showed groundwater movement from recharge areas along the Mojave River to evaporative discharge areas near the margin of Harper (dry) Lake in Water Valley. During predevelopment conditions, depth to water ranged from near land surface along the Mojave River to above land surface near Harper (dry) Lake, consistent with flowing wells in Water Valley at that time. Depths to water in much of Hinkley Valley downgradient from the Lockhart fault were less than 20 feet below land surface. By 2017, water-level declines as a result of agricultural pumping, were as much as 60 feet near the Hinkley compressor station. Areal recharge from infiltration of precipitation on the valley floor is negligible. Average annual recharge as infiltration of runoff from upland drainages to Hinkley and Water Valleys averages 64.7 acre-feet per year. In most years recharge does not occur; in years when it occurs, recharge to Hinkley Valley is typically about 296 acre-feet. In contrast, average recharge as infiltration of streamflow from the Mojave River from 1931 to 2015 was between 13,400 and 17,100 acre-feet per year; in some years recharge from the Mojave River exceeded 100,000 acre-ft. Estimates of predevelopment groundwater movement through Hinkley Gap and groundwater discharge to Harper (dry) Lake ranged from 570 to 1,900 and 820 to 2,460 acre-feet per year, respectively; at the time of this study in 2017, groundwater movement through Hinkley Gap was estimated to be about 83 acre-feet per year. Hydraulic-conductivity values estimated from slug-test data for 95 monitoring wells ranged from less than 0.1 to 680 feet per day (ft/d); values generally decreased with depth. Median hydraulic-conductivity values calculated from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) data for Mojave River alluvium and near-shore lake deposits were 73 and 11 ft/d, respectively; median hydraulic-conductivity values for locally derived alluvium and weathered bedrock were 6 and 2 ft/d, respectively. Hydraulic-conductivity values, estimated from NMR data for formerly saturated deposits overlying the 2017 water table, were as high as 300 ft/d near the Hinkley compressor station. Downgradient from the Hinkley compressor station, formerly saturated deposits had hydraulic-conductivity values of about 150 ft/d, which were higher than values in saturated material. Coarse-textured, permeable material in formerly saturated deposits above the 2017 water table may have allowed groundwater, released from the Hinkley compressor station that may have contained Cr(VI), to move rapidly downgradient. The Lockhart fault is an impediment to groundwater flow within Hinkley Valley. Groundwater-flow directions from horizontal point-velocity probe data were deflected to the west on the upgradient side of the fault compared to the nominal direction of groundwater flow estimated from water-level data. Younger groundwater was present on the upgradient and downgradient sides of the fault, and older groundwater with unadjusted carbon-14 ages as old as 5,650 years before present was in water from wells within splays of the Lockhart fault, consistent with limited groundwater movement across the fault. As a result, groundwater and Cr(VI) released from the Hinkley compressor station moved to the northwest along the downgradient side of the fault. Coupled well-bore flow and depth-dependent water-quality data show water from wells C-01 and IW-03 within the Q4 2015 (October–December 2015) regulatory Cr(VI) plume was yielded from thin layers within the aquifer that are composed of well-sorted lake-margin (beach) deposits that likely have high lateral and longitudinal connectivity. Collectively, data show highly permeable deposits above the regional water table and thin permeable deposits within saturated portions of the upper aquifer that may have conducted groundwater and Cr(VI) downgradient when releases from the Hinkley compressor station first occurred.
Widespread deployment of sensors that measure river nitrate (NO3-) concentrations has led to many recent publications in water resources journals including review papers focused on data quality assurance, improved load calculations, and better nutrient management. The principal objective of this paper is to review and synthesize studies of high-frequency NO3- data that have aimed to improve understanding of the hydrologic and biogeochemical processes underlying episodic, diel, and long-term stream NO3- dynamics. Investigations have provided unprecedented detail on hysteresis and flushing patterns during high flow, seasonal variation during baseflow, and responses to multi-year climate variation. Analyses of high-frequency data have led to notable advances in understanding how climate variation affects spatial and temporal NO3- patterns, especially dry-wet cycles and antecedent moisture. Further advances have been limited by few investigations that include high-frequency measurements outside the channel and the short duration of many records. High-frequency data for multiple constituents have provided new insight to the relative roles of hydrology and biogeochemistry as highlighted by studies of the roles of autotrophic uptake, denitrification, riparian evapotranspiration, and temperature-driven changes in viscosity as drivers of diel patterns. Comparisons of short-duration high-frequency data with long-duration low frequency data have described similarities and differences in concentration – discharge patterns and highlighted the role of legacy stores. Investigators have applied innovative analysis approaches not previously possible with low-frequency or temporally-irregular data. Future availability of long-duration high-frequency data will provide new insight to processes, resulting in improved conceptual models and a deeper understanding of the role of climate variation.
We present pollen evidence documenting the response of sawgrass ridge and slough systems of the Florida Everglades to hydrologic changes during the last 3,500 years. Sediment cores and surface samples were collected in three transects across sawgrass ridges and sloughs in Water Conservation Area 3A to determine the age of the features, long-term variability in plant community composition, stability of sawgrass ridge and slough size, and their response to 20th century changes in hydrology. Statistically significant differences in abundance of Cladium pollen in surface samples collected throughout the system allow differentiation of these communities in the sedimentary pollen record. Analysis of pollen in cores from the three transects indicates that the general distribution of ridges and sloughs has remained distinct through time. There is evidence the vegetation has responded to past global-scale climate events, such as the Medieval Warm Period, as well as the 20th century anthropogenic alterations to the natural hydrology. The ridge community is more responsive and susceptible to perturbations in hydrology than the slough community. In contrast, the slough plant community is more stable and less likely to demonstrate long-term changes after perturbations to hydrology. Regardless, these data indicate that the ridge and slough landscape is resilient to changes in hydrology and posses the potential to return to a natural state with the return of natural hydrologic conditions.
A one-dimensional daily averaged water temperature model was used to simulate Klamath River temperatures for two management alternatives under historical climate conditions and six future climate scenarios. The analysis was conducted for the Secretarial Determination on removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River. In 2012, the Secretary of the Interior will determine if dam removal and implementation of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) (Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement, 2010) will advance restoration of salmonid fisheries and is in the public interest. If the Secretary decides dam removal is appropriate, then the four dams are scheduled for removal in 2020. Water temperature simulations were conducted to compare the effect of two management alternatives: the no-action alternative where dams remain in place, and the action alternative where dam removal occurs in 2020 along with habitat restoration. Each management alternative was simulated under historical climate conditions (1961-2010) and six 50-year (2012-2061) climate scenarios. The model selected for the study, River Basin Model-10 (RBM10), was used to simulate water temperatures over a 253-mile reach of the Klamath River located in south-central Oregon and northern California. RBM10 uses a simple equilibrium flow model, assuming discharge in each river segment on each day is transmitted downstream instantaneously. The model uses a heat budget formulation to quantify heat flux at the air-water interface. Inputs for the heat budget were calculated from daily-mean meteorological data, including net shortwave solar radiation, net longwave atmospheric radiation, air temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and a psychrometric constant needed to calculate the Bowen ratio. The modeling domain was divided into nine reaches ranging in length from 10.8 to 42.4 miles, which were calibrated and validated separately with measured water temperature data collected irregularly from 1961 to 2010. Calibration root mean square errors of observed versus simulated water temperatures for the nine reaches ranged from 0.8 to 1.5 degrees C. Mean absolute errors ranged from 0.6 to 1.2 degrees C. For model validation, a k-fold cross-validation technique was used. Validation root mean square error and mean absolute error for the nine reaches ranged from 0.8 to 1.4 degrees C and 0.8 to 1.2 degrees C, respectively. Input data for the six future climate scenarios (2012-2061) were derived from historical hydrological and meteorological data and simulated meteorological output from five Global Circulation Models. Total Maximum Daily Loads or other regulatory processes that might reduce future water temperatures were not included in the simulations. Under the current climate conditions scenario, impacts of dam removal on water temperatures were greatest near Iron Gate Dam (near Yreka, California) and were attenuated in the lower reaches of the Klamath River. May and October simulated mean water temperatures increased and decreased by approximately 1-2 degrees C and 2-4 degrees C, respectively, downstream of Iron Gate Dam after dam removal. Dam removal also resulted in an earlier annual temperature cycle shift of 18 days, 5 days, and 2 days, near Iron Gate Dam, Scott River, and Trinity River, respectively. Although the magnitude of precipitation and air temperature change predicted by the five Global Circulation Models varied, all five models resulted in progressive incremental increases in water temperatures with each decade from 2012 to 2061. However, dam removal under KBRA appeared to delay the effects of climate change to some extent near Iron Gate Dam. With dam removal under KBRA, annual-mean water temperatures exceeded the 49-year historical mean temperature beginning in 2045; whereas with dams, annual-mean temperatures exceeded the historical mean beginning in 2025. Potential changes in seasonal water temperatures resulting from dam removal, with or without future climat
The potential of ecological restoration and green infrastructure has been long suggested in the literature as adaptation strategies for a changing climate, with an emphasis on revegetation and, more recently, carbon sequestration and stormwater management. Tree planting and “natural” stormwater detention structures such as bioswales, stormwater detention basins, and sediment traps are popular approaches. However, the experimental verification of performance for these investments is scarce and does not address rock detention structures specifically. This 3-year study investigates the infiltration, peak flow mitigation, and microclimate performance of a natural wash stormwater retention installation using one-rock dams in an urban park in Phoenix, Arizona, USA. Field data collected during the study do not depict change in the hydrogeomorphology. However, hydrologic modeling, using data collected from the field, portrays decreases in peak flows and increases in infiltration at the treated sites. Additionally, we observe a lengthening of microclimate cooling effects following rainfall events, as compared with the untreated sites. In this urban arid land setting, the prospect that rock detention structures themselves could reduce warming or heat effects is promising.
Geohydrologic data were collected from Irwin Basin at Fort Irwin National Training Center in the Mojave Desert of southern California by the U.S. Geological Survey during 199296 to deter mine the quantity and quality of ground water available in this basin. In addition to data collected from existing wells and test holes, 17 monitoring sites were constructed in Irwin Basin to provide data on subsurface geology, ground-water levels, and ground-water quality. Eleven of these sites were multiple-well monitoring sites that were constructed to provide depth-dependent geohydrologic data in the aquifer system. The aquifer system of Irwin Basin, defined on the basis of hydrologic data collected from wells in Irwin Basin, consists of an upper and a lower aquifer. A 1994 water-table contour map shows that a cone of depression beneath Irwin Basin well field has developed as a result of ground-water development. Water-quality samples collected from Irwin Basin wells to determine potential sources of ground-water degradation indicate that water in three areas in the basin contains high nitrate and dissolved-solids concentrations. The stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen indicate that present-day precipitation is not a major source of recharge in this basin. Tritium and carbon-14 data indicate that most of the basin was recharged before 1953 and that this water may be more than 14,000 years old.
Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) is the source of the Klamath river that flows through southern Oregon and northern California. The UKL basin is home to two endangered species and provides water for 81,000+ ha (200,000+ acres) of irrigation on the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) Klamath Project located downstream of the UKL basin. Irrigated agriculture also occurs along the tributaries to UKL. During 2013–2016, water right calls resulted in various levels of curtailment of irrigation diversions from the tributaries to UKL. However, information on the extent of curtailment, how much irrigation water was saved, and its impact on the UKL is unknown. In this study, we combined Landsat-based actual evapotranspiration (ETa) data obtained from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model with gridded precipitation and USGS station discharge data to evaluate the hydrologic impact of the curtailment program. Analysis was performed for five base years (2004, 2006, 2008-2010) and four target years (2013-2016) over irrigated areas above UKL. Our results indicated that the impact of the curtailment program over the June to September time-period was highest during 2013 and declined in each of the following years. The total on-field water savings were approximately 60 hm3 in 2013 and 2014, 44 hm3 in 2015, and 32 hm3 in 2016. The instream water flow change or extra water available (EWA) were found at 92, 68, 45, and 26 hm3 respectively for 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Most water savings came from pasture and wetlands. Alfalfa showed the most decline in water use among grain crops. The resulting EWA from the curtailment contributed to a maximum of 19% of the lake inflows and 50% of the lake volume. This study presents the use of Landsat-based ETa and other remote sensing datasets for evaluating water-related impacts of the irrigation curtailment program.
Permits for disposing of salty oil-production water have been issued for 19 wells in the Greater Altamont-Bluebell field. During 1986 more than 500 million gallons of production water were injected into the Duchesne River, Uinta, and Green River Formations through 18 of these wells. The physical and chemical effects of injecting this water into aquifers containing potable water are poorly understood. Interfingering and the structural configuration of these formations add complexity to the description of the geometry and hydrogeology of the ground-water system. A preliminary assessment of the problem indicates that numerical modeling may offer a method of determining the effects of injection. Modeling possibilities include variable-density, three-dimensional flow, sectionaltransport, and areal-transport models. Data needed to develop these models can be derived from a synthesis of geologic, hydrologic, and hydrochemical data already available in the files of State and Federal agencies, oil companies, and private companies. Results from each modeling phase would contribute information for implementing the following phase. The result will be a better understanding of how water moves naturally through the groundwater system, the extent of alterations of both vertical and horizontal flow near the disposal wells, and an overall concept of the effects of deep injection on near-surface aquifers.
This chapter discusses some of the fundamental concepts, data needs and approaches that aid in developing a general understanding of a groundwater system. Principles of the hydrological cycle are reviewed; the processes of recharge and discharge in aquifer systems; types of geological, hydrological and hydraulic data needed to describe the hydrogeological framework of an aquifer system; factors affecting the distribution of recharge to aquifers; and uses of groundwater chemistry, geochemical modelling, environmental tracers and age interpretations in groundwater studies. Together, these concepts and observations aid in developing a conceptualization of groundwater flow systems and provide input to the development of numerical models of a flow system. Conceptualization of the geology, hydrology, geochemistry, and hydrogeological and hydrochemical framework can be quite useful in planning, study design, guiding sampling campaigns, acquisition of new data and, ultimately, developing numerical models capable of assessing a wide variety of societal issues — for example, sustainability of groundwater resources in response to real or planned withdrawals from the system, CO 2 sequestration or other waste isolation issues (such as nuclear waste disposal).
A series of workshops was conducted in September, 1982, by staff of the Virginia Office, Mid-Atlantic District of the U.S.-Geological Survey for the benefit of coal operators, consultants, and resource managers in the coal-producing area of southwest Virginia. The purpose of the workshop series was to present hydrologic information and data by the U.S. Geological Survey collected during four years of study of the. coal hydrology of Virginia. The workshop series was held one day a week for three weeks at two locations within southwest Virginia in order to reduce travel time and overnight travel costs for participants. Results of an independently conducted questionnaire indicate the series was a success. The report summarizes the workshop preparation, organization, and presentation, and gives general conclusions and suggestions for those interested in conducting workshops.
Wildfire can alter soil-hydraulic properties, often resulting in an increased prevalence of infiltration-excess overland flow and greater potential for debris-flow hazards. Mini disk tension infiltrometers (MDIs) can be used to estimate soil hydraulic properties, such as field-saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K fs ) and wetting front potential ( H f ), and their spatial variability following wildfire. However, the small (point-scale) footprint of MDI measurements makes it challenging to use these data to parameterize hydrologic models at the hillslope and watershed scales where hydrologic hazards, such as debris flows, initiate. Here, we designed numerical experiments to estimate spatially constant or watershed-scale effective hydrologic parameters (EHPs) that approximate the response of spatially variable hydrologic parameters with distributions derived from MDI measurements at five sites in the southwestern United States. We found that it is possible to define EHPs for both K fs and H f based on the MDI measurements that lead to reasonable approximations of run-off hydrographs at the outlets of small watersheds (<1 km 2 ). We found that watershed EHPs are functions of rainfall characteristics, although they are most sensitive to rainfall intensity and relatively less sensitive to the temporal distribution of rainfall. EHPs are lower than the arithmetic mean of the MDI measurements and are better approximated by the median or geometric mean of the MDI measurements, particularly for storms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year or less that commonly initiate post-fire debris flows. This work demonstrated that using the proposed upscaling method to estimate watershed-scale EHPs, as opposed to approximating EHPs based on the arithmetic mean of the MDI measurements, improved the ability of a hydrologic model to identify storms that are likely to produce debris flows. Results improved our ability to link point-scale MDI measurements and watershed-scale EHPs in post-fire settings and helped guide our ability to use MDI data to parameterize post-fire hydrologic models.