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Report on the workshop ‘Next Steps in Developing Nature Futures’

The workshop ‘New Narratives for Nature: operationalizing the IPBES Nature Futures Scenarios’ was organised by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models and hosted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), with support from the research team on “Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services through an Integrated Social-Ecological Systems Approach (PANCES)” based at the University of Tokyo, the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN), and the United Nations University, with generous financial support from the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. Due to the COVID-19 virus outbreak, most task force members participated through virtual means, with a subset of task force members meeting in person in Japan. The aim of the workshop was to build on the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) and on the ‘nature futures’ participatory scenario-development work initiated by the IPBES expert group on scenarios and models in the first IPBES work programme. This workshop aims to further elaborate the pre-workshop scenario narratives and to enrich discussions on the NFF. The workshop also served to start working on a more detailed task force work plan. These aims were achieved through: • Task force sessions on the further formulation of the Nature Futures narratives. • Task force sessions on the cross-comparison of draft narratives and the further elaboration of the historical-present narrative. • Organisational sessions to begin the drafting of sub-deliverable-specific work plans. • In parallel to the task force workshop, collaborative sessions between the task force and Japanese researchers took place to discuss the application of the Nature Futures Framework at the national scale, using existing national level scenarios from Japan. • A public seminar, in Japan, for a wider audience introducing the scenarios and models task force’s work, the concept of the Nature Futures Framework, and fostered discussions on the concept of transformative change. Summary of outputs of the workshop in Japan • 6 NEW scenario narratives drafts – an evolution of the pre-workshop work using the narrative templates, into a more coherent set of narratives fitting their locations in the Nature Futures Framework, including some illustrative visualisations. • A cross-comparison table – to identify the core similarities and differences across the 6 new narratives (including single narrative-between-narrative comparisons). • A discussion on how to continue further development, requiring identifying pathways to complete the 6 new narratives. • 1 historical-to-present narrative draft – also an evolution of work done prior to the workshop. The task force has yet to synthesize and shorten this draft, ensuring linkages with topics detailed in the 6 new narratives into a more digestible level. • Elaboration of a follow-up plan for further development of the narratives, post-workshop, through a “buddy” system of in-depth online discussions per and between narratives. • 1 Japan case study – on fitting national level scenarios into the Nature Futures Framework. A summary will be shared by the team who worked closely on this with the PANCES partners, which we expect will give interesting insights to the cross-scale application of the Nature Futures Framework. • Detailed work plan implementation drafts (ongoing post workshop in sub-groups).

Report↗

Foreward: The paleoclimatic and paleobiogeographic significance of the Tjörnes Basin, Northern Iceland

Since the mid-19th century, geologists and paleontologists have recognized the scientific importance and unique nature of the richly fossiliferous sediments exposed along the Tjörnes Peninsula in Northern Iceland. In the following century and a half, Tjörnes has attracted the attention of an international “who’s who” in Cenozoic paleontology, as well as many paleoclimatologists unraveling the complex climatic history of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. In a seminal meeting, sponsored by the Royal Society of London in 1984, and published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B, volume 318 (“The past three million years: evolution of climatic variability in the North Atlantic region”), an international group of experts addressed climatic history of the last 3 million years. Notably, one of the main invited participants was Iceland’s Dr. Thorleifur Einarsson, who literally wrote the book “Geology of Iceland” (1994, 1999), and was also known for his expertise in Tjörnes paleoclimatology. Einarsson’s key contribution was linking the marine history of Tjörnes to the rapidly growiing paleoclimate records from deep-sea marine sediment cores and improving chronology of climate evolution. This work was closely linked to the dating of Pliocene-Pleistocene glacial sediments and volcanics in Iceland and on Tjörnes in particular, based on paleomagnetic data and biostratigraphic work which was presented jointly with a group from the U.S. Geological Survey at the 1965 INQUA meeting in Boulder, Colorado.

Tjornes Basin↗

Exploring probabilistic seismic risk assessment to monitor the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) calls upon the systematic collection of damage and loss data between 2015 and 2030 to monitor a number of disaster indicators. These indicators include the number of deaths, number of injured people, number of people affected by disasters, and direct economic losses. These results can then be compared with previous periods in order to track progress in disaster risk reduction. However, there is an important limitation with such an approach when measuring disaster risk due to earthquakes. Even in countries with significant seismic risk, it is plausible to witness a 15 year period without any destructive earthquakes (e.g., Nicaragua, Haiti, Myanmar). This situation can lead to the perception that efficient measures are being undertaken to reduce the impact of earthquakes, when in reality the trend could be the opposite. An alternative approach to monitor the SFDRR indicators is through probabilistic risk models. These models allow the estimation of the indicators of the SFDRR probabilistically (e.g., average annual economic losses, average annual fatalities), which do not depend on the occurrence of destructive events during the period of interest. Although seismic activity can be assumed as stationary over several decades, in order to evaluate the evolution of the SFDRR over these time frames, the consistent updating of the risk model has to be considered in order to reflect the evolution and change of the built environment and its vulnerability, such as the introduction of new design regulations or the implementation of retrofitting campaigns. A comparison of the various risk indicators throughout time allows assessing whether the potential losses caused by earthquakes are decreasing or increasing, as well as where risk reduction measures should be prioritized. This study discusses how the global seismic risk model released in December 2018 by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners can be explored to monitor the SFDRR, and more importantly, how it can be modified to assess which measures should be endorsed to respect the 2030 targets.

Extramural-Authored Publication Paper↗

Geologic setting and geomorphic history of La Botica and surrounding area

La Botica is located on the gently east-dipping marginal area between the high San Juan Mountains to the west and the San Luis Basin to the east in south-central Colorado. The site is positioned on a topographic bench perched about 70 to 80 m above La Jara Creek (figure 2.1), a tributary to the Rio Grande. The unique floral assemblage at La Botica has resulted in intermittent occupation over the last several thousand years. The physical environment supporting this assemblage is a result of Quaternary surface processes that have modified the underlying Tertiary bedrock. Underlying bedrock at the site consists of Oligocene to Pliocene volcanic and sedimentary deposits related to the Rio Grande rift and the San Juan volcanic locus of the Southern Rocky Mountains volcanic field. Local bedrock is mildly deformed by normal faulting and eastward tilting due to the onset of Oligocene extensional deformation and initial formation of the San Luis Basin. The geomorphic evolution and incision history of La Jara Creek are directly linked to middle to late Pleistocene evolution of the Rio Grande and to regional alpine glacial cycles over the last 500 k.y. (thousand years). Subsequent degradation of surrounding bedrock and development of mass-wasting deposits, such as landslides and talus slopes, have strongly influenced the incision history of La Jara Creek and the local environment at La Botica. In addition, local talus slopes and blockfields can host processes that actively modify the local environment, and these processes may have contributed to establishment of the floral assemblage.

Colorado↗

Intersexual allometry differences and ontogenetic shifts of coloration patterns in two aquatic turtles, Graptemys oculifera and Graptemys flavimaculata

Coloration can play critical roles in a species' biology. The allometry of color patterns may be useful for elucidating the evolutionary mechanisms responsible for shaping the traits. We measured characteristics relating to eight aspects of color patterns from Graptemys oculifera and G. flavimaculata to investigate the allometric differences among male, female, and unsexed juvenile specimens. Additionally, we investigated ontogenetic shifts by incorporating the unsexed juveniles into the male and female datasets. In general, male color traits were isometric (i.e., color scaled with body size), while females and juvenile color traits were hypoallometric, growing in size more slowly than the increase in body size. When we included unsexed juveniles in our male and female datasets, our linear regression analyses found all relationships to be hypoallometric and our model selection analysis found support for nonlinear models describing the relationship between body size and color patterns, suggestive of an ontogenetic shift in coloration traits for both sexes at maturity. Although color is critical for many species' biology and therefore under strong selective pressure in many other species, our results are likely explained by an epiphenomenon related to the different selection pressures on body size and growth rates between juveniles and adults and less attributable to the evolution of color patterns themselves.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Accumulating evidence in ecology: Once is not enough

Many published studies in ecological science are viewed as stand-alone investigations that purport to provide new insights into how ecological systems behave based on single analyses. But it is rare for results of single studies to provide definitive results, as evidenced in current discussions of the “reproducibility crisis” in science. The key step in science is the comparison of hypothesis-based predictions with observations, where the predictions are typically generated by hypothesis-specific models. Repeating this step allows us to gain confidence in the predictive ability of a model, and its corresponding hypothesis, and thus to accumulate evidence and eventually knowledge. This accumulation may occur via an ad hoc approach, via meta-analyses, or via a more systematic approach based on the anticipated evolution of an information state. We argue the merits of this latter approach, provide an example, and discuss implications for designing sequences of studies focused on a particular question. We conclude by discussing current data collection programs that are pre-adapted to use this approach and argue that expanded use would increase the rate of learning in ecology, as well as our confidence in what is learned.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Heterogeneity of locked‐pasture snow conditions modulate habitat and movement choices of a facultative migrant

Habitat selection and movement are key mechanisms by which animals can respond to and potentially cope with highly variable environmental conditions. Optimal responses likely vary, however, depending on the severity and scope of conditions. We tested this hypothesis using a facultative migrant species, the Great Gray Owl ( Strix nebulosa ), which exhibits high inter- and intra-individual variation in the timing, direction, and distance of winter movements. Specifically, we evaluated whether episodic, spatiotemporally variable “locked-pasture” snow conditions, which restrict access to subnivean food, prompted shifts in habitat selection or long-distance movements by owls. We quantified the movement of 42 owls using global positioning system (GPS) data within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA, during 2017–2022. We used a novel ecological application of SnowModel, a snow evolution modeling system, to estimate fine-scale, physical snow properties likely to influence access to prey. Variables included snow depth, snow crusts produced by wind, and ice crusts produced by melt-freeze and rain-on-snow events. Owls avoided heterogeneously distributed wind crusts via local shifts in habitat selection. More homogenous ice crusts elicited long-distance movements away from affected home ranges. Finally, owls employed both proximate shifts in habitat selection and long-distance movements to avoid deeper snow. Ultimately, owls exhibited behavioral flexibility in response to limiting snow conditions that can vary in terms of severity, spatial extent, and duration. Such behavioral responses determine species distribution, with implications for population and community dynamics in spatiotemporally variable systems. Understanding the effects of, and responses to, environmental controls is increasingly important given the scope of on-going global change.

Idaho, Wyoming↗

Expanding national-scale wildlife disease surveillance systems with research networks

Efficient learning about disease dynamics in free-ranging wildlife systems can benefit from active surveillance that is standardized across different ecological contexts. For example, active surveillance that targets specific individuals and populations with standardized sampling across ecological contexts (landscape-scale targeted surveillance) is important for developing a mechanistic understanding of disease emergence, which is the foundation for improving risk assessment of zoonotic or wildlife-livestock disease outbreaks and predicting hotspots of disease emergence. However, landscape-scale targeted surveillance systems are rare and challenging to implement. Increasing experience and infrastructure for landscape-scale targeted surveillance will improve readiness for rapid deployment of this type of surveillance in response to new disease emergence events. Here, we describe our experience developing and rapidly deploying a landscape-scale targeted surveillance system for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in two free-ranging deer species across their ranges in the United States. Our surveillance system was designed to collect data across individual, population, and landscape scales for future analyses aimed at understanding mechanisms and risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, evolution, and persistence. Our approach leveraged partnerships between state and federal public service sectors and academic researchers in a landscape-scale targeted surveillance research network. Methods describe our approach to developing the surveillance network and sampling design. Results report challenges with implementing our intended sampling design, specifically how the design was adapted as different challenges arose and summarize the sampling design that has been implemented thus far. In the discussion, we describe strategies that were important for the successful deployment of landscape-scale targeted surveillance, development and operation of the research network, construction of similar networks in the future, and analytical approaches for the data based on the sampling design.

Ecology and Evolution↗

A quantitative life history of endangered humpback chub that spawn in the Little Colorado River: variation in movement, growth, and survival

While the ecology and evolution of partial migratory systems (defined broadly to include skip spawning) have been well studied, we are only beginning to understand how partial migratory populations are responding to ongoing environmental change. Environmental change can lead to differences in the fitness of residents and migrants, which could eventually lead to changes in the frequency of the strategies in the overall population. Here, we address questions concerning the life history of the endangered Gila cypha (humpback chub) in the regulated Colorado River and the unregulated tributary and primary spawning area, the Little Colorado River. We develop eight multistate models for the population based on three movement hypotheses, in which states are defined in terms of fish size classes and river locations. We fit these models to mark–recapture data collected in 2009–2012. We compare survival and growth estimates between the Colorado River and Little Colorado River and calculate abundances for all size classes. The best model supports the hypotheses that larger adults spawn more frequently than smaller adults, that there are residents in the spawning grounds, and that juveniles move out of the Little Colorado River in large numbers during the monsoon season (July–September). Monthly survival rates for G. cypha in the Colorado River are higher than in the Little Colorado River in all size classes; however, growth is slower. While the hypothetical life histories of life-long residents in the Little Colorado River and partial migrants spending most of its time in the Colorado River are very different, they lead to roughly similar fitness expectations when we used expected number of spawns as a proxy. However, more research is needed because our study period covers a period of years when conditions in the Colorado River for G. cypha are likely to have been better than has been typical over the last few decades.

Colorado River;Little Colorado River↗

Genome complexity in the coelacanth is reflected in its adaptive immune system

We have analyzed the available genome and transcriptome resources from the coelacanth in order to characterize genes involved in adaptive immunity. Two highly distinctive IgW-encoding loci have been identified that exhibit a unique genomic organization, including a multiplicity of tandemly repeated constant region exons. The overall organization of the IgW loci precludes typical heavy chain class switching. A locus encoding IgM could not be identified either computationally or by using several different experimental strategies. Four distinct sets of genes encoding Ig light chains were identified. This includes a variant sigma-type Ig light chain previously identified only in cartilaginous fishes and which is now provisionally denoted sigma-2. Genes encoding α/β and γ/δ T-cell receptors, and CD3, CD4, and CD8 co-receptors also were characterized. Ig heavy chain variable region genes and TCR components are interspersed within the TCR α/δ locus; this organization previously was reported only in tetrapods and raises questions regarding evolution and functional cooption of genes encoding variable regions. The composition, organization and syntenic conservation of the major histocompatibility complex locus have been characterized. We also identified large numbers of genes encoding cytokines and their receptors, and other genes associated with adaptive immunity. In terms of sequence identity and organization, the adaptive immune genes of the coelacanth more closely resemble orthologous genes in tetrapods than those in teleost fishes, consistent with current phylogenomic interpretations. Overall, the work reported described herein highlights the complexity inherent in the coelacanth genome and provides a rich catalog of immune genes for future investigations.

Journal of Experimental Zoology Part B: Molecular ↗

A tetrapod-like repertoire of innate immune receptors and effectors for coelacanths

The recent availability of both robust transcriptome and genome resources for coelacanth ( Latimeria chalumnae ) has led to unique discoveries for coelacanth immunity such as the lack of IgM, a central component of adaptive immunity. This study was designed to more precisely address the origins and evolution of gene families involved in the initial recognition and response to microbial pathogens, which effect innate immunity. Several multigene families involved in innate immunity are addressed, including: Toll-like receptors (TLRs), retinoic acid inducible gene 1 (RIG1)-like receptors (RLRs), the nucleotide-binding domain and leucine-rich repeat containing proteins (NLRs), diverse immunoglobulin domain-containing proteins (DICP) and modular domain immune-type receptors (MDIRs). Our analyses also include the tripartite motif-containing proteins (TRIM), which are involved in pathogen recognition as well as the positive regulation of antiviral immunity. Finally, this study addressed some of the downstream effectors of the antimicrobial response including IL-1 family members, type I and II interferons (IFN) and IFN-stimulated effectors (ISGs). Collectively, the genes and gene families in coelacanth that effect innate immune functions share characteristics both in content, structure and arrangement with those found in tetrapods but not in teleosts. The findings support the sister group relationship of coelacanth fish with tetrapods.

Journal of Experimental Zoology Part B: Molecular ↗

Martian paleolakes and waterways: Exobiological implications

The problems of how warm and wet Mars once was and when climate transitions may have occurred are not well understood. Mars may have had an early environment similar to Earth's that was conductive to the ermergence of life. In addition, increasing geologic evidence indicates that water, upon which terrestrial life depends, has been present on Mars throughout its history. This evidence suggests that life could have developed not only on early Mars but also over longer periods of time in longer lasting, more clement local environments. Indications of past or present life most likely would be found in areas where liquid water existed in sufficient quantities to provide for the needs of biological systems. We suggest that paleolakes may have provided such environments. Unlike the case on Earth, this record of the origin and evolution of life has probably not been erased by extensive deformation of the Martian surface. Our work has identified eleven prospective areas where large lacustrine basins may once have existed. These areas are important for future biological, geological, and climatological investigations. ?? 1991 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Origins of Life and Evolution of the Biosphere↗

Evolutionary dynamics of Ceratonova species (Cnidaria: Myxozoa) reveal different host adaptation strategies

The myxozoan parasite Ceratonova shasta is an important pathogen that infects multiple species of Pacific salmonids. Ongoing genetic surveillance has revealed stable host-parasite relationships throughout the parasite's endemic range. We applied Bayesian phylogenetics to test specific hypotheses about the evolution of these host-parasite relationships within the well-studied Klamath River watershed in Oregon and California, USA. The results provide statistical support that different genotypes of C. shasta are distinct lineages of one species, which is related to two other Ceratonova species in the same ecosystems; Ceratonova X in speckled dace and C. gasterostea in threespine stickleback. Furthermore, we found strong support for the hypothesis that C. shasta type 0 in native steelhead trout and type I in Chinook salmon each evolved with a specialist host adaptation strategy, while C. shasta type II in coho salmon resulted from a generalist host adaptation strategy. Inferred date and host species of the most recent common ancestor of extant Klamath basin types indicate that it occurred between 14,000 and 21,000 years ago, and most likely infected a native steelhead or rainbow trout host.

California, Oregon↗

When parasites become prey: ecological and epidemiological significance of eating parasites

Recent efforts to include parasites in food webs have drawn attention to a previously ignored facet of foraging ecology: parasites commonly function as prey within ecosystems. Because of the high productivity of parasites, their unique nutritional composition and their pathogenicity in hosts, their consumption affects both food-web topology and disease risk in humans and wildlife. Here, we evaluate the ecological, evolutionary and epidemiological significance of feeding on parasites, including concomitant predation, grooming, predation on free-living stages and intraguild predation. Combining empirical data and theoretical models, we show that consumption of parasites is neither rare nor accidental, and that it can sharply affect parasite transmission and food web properties. Broader consideration of predation on parasites will enhance our understanding of disease control, food web structure and energy transfer, and the evolution of complex life cycles.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

The Malthusian-Darwinian dynamic and the trajectory of civilization

Two interacting forces influence all populations: the Malthusian dynamic of exponential growth until resource limits are reached, and the Darwinian dynamic of innovation and adaptation to circumvent these limits through biological and/or cultural evolution. The specific manifestations of these forces in modern human society provide an important context for determining how humans can establish a sustainable relationship with the finite Earth.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

Landscape community genomics: understanding eco-evolutionary processes in complex environments

Extrinsic factors influencing evolutionary processes are often categorically lumped into interactions that are environmentally (e.g., climate, landscape) or community-driven, with little consideration of the overlap or influence of one on the other. However, genomic variation is strongly influenced by complex and dynamic interactions between environmental and community effects. Failure to consider both effects on evolutionary dynamics simultaneously can lead to incomplete, spurious, or erroneous conclusions about the mechanisms driving genomic variation. We highlight the need for a landscape community genomics (LCG) framework to help to motivate and challenge scientists in diverse fields to consider a more holistic, interdisciplinary perspective on the genomic evolution of multi-species communities in complex environments.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

Metamorphosis in an era of increasing climate variability

Most animals have complex life cycles including metamorphosis or other discrete life stage transitions during which individuals may be particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors. With climate change, individuals will be exposed to increasing thermal and hydrologic variability during metamorphosis, which may affect survival and performance through physiological, behavioral, and ecological mechanisms. Furthermore, because metamorphosis entails changes in traits and vital rates, it is likely to play an important role in how populations respond to increasing climate variability. To identify mechanisms underlying population responses and associated trait and life history evolution, we need new approaches to estimating changes in individual traits and performance throughout metamorphosis, and we need to integrate metamorphosis as an explicit life stage in analytical models.

Trends in Ecology & Evolution↗

Integrating Earth–life systems: A geogenomic approach

For centuries, scientists have recognized and worked to understand how Earth’s mutable landscape and climate shape the distribution and evolution of species. Here, we describe the emerging field of geogenomics, which uses the reciprocal and deep integration of geologic, climatic, and population genomic data to define and test cause–effect relationships between Earth and life at intermediate spatial and temporal scales (i.e., the mesoscale). Technological advances now power the detailed reconstruction of landscape and evolutionary histories, but transdisciplinary collaborations and new quantitative tools are needed to better integrate Earth–life data. Geogenomics can help build a more unified theory and characterize the boundary conditions under which geologic and climatic processes generate new biodiversity, how species’ responses differ, and why.

Trends in Ecology & Evolution↗