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USGS2016

Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors. We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate). Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor). Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact. Synthesis and applications . Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation of freshwater biodiversity in a warming world.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2019

Species insurance trumps spatial insurance in stabilizing biomass of a marine macroalgal metacommunity

Because natural ecosystems are complex, it is difficult to predict how their variability scales across space and levels of organization. The species‐insurance hypothesis predicts that asynchronous dynamics among species should reduce variability when biomass is aggregated either from local species populations to local multispecies communities, or from metapopulations to metacommunities. Similarly, the spatial‐insurance hypothesis predicts that asynchronous spatial dynamics among either local populations or local communities should stabilize metapopulation biomass and metacommunity biomass, respectively. In combination, both species and spatial insurance reduce variation in metacommunity biomass over time, yet these insurances are rarely considered together in natural systems. We partitioned the extent that species insurance and spatial insurance reduced the annual variation in macroalgal biomass in a southern California kelp forest. We quantified variability and synchrony at two levels of organization (population and community) and two spatial scales (local plots and region) and quantified the strength of species and spatial insurance by comparing observed variability and synchrony in aggregate biomass to null models of independent species or spatial dynamics based on cyclic‐shift permutation. Spatial insurance was weak, presumably because large‐scale oceanographic processes in the study region led to high spatial synchrony at both population‐ and community‐level biomass. Species insurance was stronger due to asynchronous dynamics among the metapopulations of a few common species. In particular, a regional decline in the dominant understory kelp species Pterygophora californica was compensated for by the rise of three subdominant species. These compensatory dynamics were associated with positive values of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, indicating that differential species tolerances to warmer temperature and nutrient‐poor conditions may underlie species insurance in this system. Our results illustrate how species insurance can stabilize aggregate community properties in natural ecosystems where environmental conditions vary over broad spatial scales.

Ecology↗

USGS2020

Acoustic space occupancy: Combining ecoacoustics and lidar to model biodiversity variation and detection bias across heterogeneous landscapes

There is global interest in quantifying changing biodiversity in human-modified landscapes. Ecoacoustics may offer a promising pathway for supporting multi-taxa monitoring, but its scalability has been hampered by the sonic complexity of biodiverse ecosystems and the imperfect detectability of animal-generated sounds. The acoustic signature of a habitat, or soundscape, contains information about multiple taxa and may circumvent species identification, but robust statistical technology for characterizing community-level attributes is lacking. Here, we present the Acoustic Space Occupancy Model, a flexible hierarchical framework designed to account for detection artifacts from acoustic surveys in order to model biologically relevant variation in acoustic space use among community assemblages. We illustrate its utility in a biologically and structurally diverse Amazon frontier forest landscape, a valuable test case for modeling biodiversity variation and acoustic attenuation from vegetation density. We use complementary airborne lidar data to capture aspects of 3D forest structure hypothesized to influence community composition and acoustic signal detection. Our novel analytic framework permitted us to model both the assembly and detectability of soundscapes using lidar-derived estimates of forest structure. Our empirical predictions were consistent with physical models of frequency-dependent attenuation, and we estimated that the probability of observing animal activity in the frequency channel most vulnerable to acoustic attenuation varied by over 60%, depending on vegetation density. There were also large differences in the biotic use of acoustic space predicted for intact and degraded forest habitats, with notable differences in the soundscape channels predominantly occupied by insects . This study advances the utility of ecoacoustics by providing a robust modeling framework for addressing detection bias from remote audio surveys while preserving the rich dimensionality of soundscape data, which may be critical for inferring biological patterns pertinent to multiple taxonomic groups in the tropics. Our methodology paves the way for greater integration of remotely sensed observations with high-throughput biodiversity data to help bring routine, multi-taxa monitoring to scale in dynamic and diverse landscapes.

Mato Grosso↗

USGS2012

A brief history and summary of the effects of river engineering and dams on the Mississippi River system and delta

The U.S. Geological Survey Forecast Mekong project is providing technical assistance and information to aid management decisions and build science capacity of institutions in the Mekong River Basin. A component of this effort is to produce a synthesis of the effects of dams and other engineering structures on large-river hydrology, sediment transport, geomorphology, ecology, water quality, and deltaic systems. The Mississippi River Basin (MRB) of the United States was used as the backdrop and context for this synthesis because it is a continental scale river system with a total annual water discharge proportional to the Mekong River, has been highly engineered over the past two centuries, and the effects of engineering have been widely studied and documented by scientists and engineers. The MRB is controlled and regulated by dams and river-engineering structures. These modifications have resulted in multiple benefits including navigation, flood control, hydropower, bank stabilization, and recreation. Dams and other river-engineering structures in the MRB have afforded the United States substantial socioeconomic benefits; however, these benefits also have transformed the hydrologic, sediment transport, geomorphic, water-quality, and ecologic characteristics of the river and its delta. Large dams on the middle Missouri River have substantially reduced the magnitude of peak floods, increased base discharges, and reduced the overall variability of intraannual discharges. The extensive system of levees and wing dikes throughout the MRB, although providing protection from intermediate magnitude floods, have reduced overall channel capacity and increased flood stage by up to 4 meters for higher magnitude floods. Prior to major river engineering, the estimated average annual sediment yield of the Mississippi River Basin was approximately 400 million metric tons. The construction of large main-channel reservoirs on the Missouri and Arkansas Rivers, sedimentation in dike fields, and protection of channel banks by revetments throughout the basin, have reduced the overall sediment yield of the MRB by more than 60 percent. The primary alterations to channel morphology by dams and other engineering projects have been (1) channel simplification and reduced dynamism; (2) lowering of channel-bed elevation; and (3) disconnection of the river channel from the flood plain, except during extreme flood events. Freshwater discharge from the Mississippi River and its associated sediment and nutrient loads strongly influence the physical and biological components in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Ninety percent of the nitrogen load reaching the Gulf of Mexico is from nonpoint sources with about 60 percent coming from fertilizer and mineralized soil nitrogen. Much of the phosphorus is from animal manure from pasture and rangelands followed by fertilizer applied to corn and soybeans. Increased nutrient enrichment in the northern Gulf of Mexico has resulted in the degradation of water quality as more phytoplankton grow, which increases turbidity and depletes oxygen in the lower depths creating what is known as the "dead zone." In 2002, the dead zone was 22,000 square kilometers (km2), an area similar to the size of the State of Massachusetts. Changes in the flow regime from engineered structures have had direct and indirect effects on the fish communities. The navigation pools in the upper Mississippi River have aged, and these overwintering habitats, which were created when the pools filled, have declined as sedimentation reduces water depth. Reproduction of paddlefish may have been adversely affected by dams, which impede access to suitable spawning habitats. Fishes that inhabit swift-current habitats in the unimpounded lower Mississippi River have not declined as much as in the upper Mississippi River. The decline of the pallid sturgeon may be attributable to channelization of the Missouri River above St. Louis, Missouri. The Missouri River supports a rich fish community and remains relatively intact. Nevertheless, the widespread and long history of human intervention in river discharge has contributed to the declines of about 25 percent of the species. The Mississippi River Delta Plain is built from six delta complexes composed of a massive area of coastal wetlands that support the largest commercial fishery in the conterminous United States. Since the early 20th century, approximately 4,900 km2 of coastal lands have been lost in Louisiana. One of the primary mechanisms of wetland loss on the Plaquemines-Balize complex is believed to be the disconnection of the river distributary network from the delta plain by the massive system of levees on the delta top, which prevent overbank flooding and replenishment of the delta top by sediment and nutrient deliveries. Efforts by Federal and State agencies to conserve and restore the Mississippi River Delta Plain began over three decades ago and have accelerated over the past decade. Regardless of these efforts, however, land losses are expected to continue because the reduced upstream sediment supplies are not sufficient to keep up with the projected depositional space being created by the combined forces of delta plain subsidence and global sea-level rise.

Alabama;Alberta;Arkansas;Colorado;Georgia;Illinois↗

USGS2009

Multi-state succession in wetlands: a novel use of state and transition models

The complexity of ecosystems and mechanisms of succession are often simplified by linear and mathematical models used to understand and predict system behavior. Such models often do not incorporate multivariate, nonlinear feedbacks in pattern and process that include multiple scales of organization inherent within real-world systems. Wetlands are ecosystems with unique, nonlinear patterns of succession due to the regular, but often inconstant, presence of water on the landscape. We develop a general, nonspatial state and transition (S and T) succession conceptual model for wetlands and apply the general framework by creating annotated succession/management models and hypotheses for use in impact analysis on a portion of an imperiled wetland. The S and T models for our study area, Water Conservation Area 3A South (WCA3), Florida, USA, included hydrologic and peat depth values from multivariate analyses and classification and regression trees. We used the freeware Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool as an exploratory application to evaluate our S and T models with different management actions (equal chance [a control condition], deeper conditions, dry conditions, and increased hydrologic range) for three communities: slough, sawgrass ( Cladium jamaicense ), and wet prairie. Deeper conditions and increased hydrologic range behaved similarly, with the transition of community states to deeper states, particularly for sawgrass and slough. Hydrology is the primary mechanism for multi-state transitions within our study period, and we show both an immediate and lagged effect on vegetation, depending on community state. We consider these S and T succession models as a fraction of the framework for the Everglades. They are hypotheses for use in adaptive management, represent the community response to hydrology, and illustrate which aspects of hydrologic variability are important to community structure. We intend for these models to act as a foundation for further restoration management and experimentation which will refine transition and threshold concepts.

Florida↗

USGS2018

The genetic network of greater sage-grouse: Range-wide identification of keystone hubs of connectivity

Genetic networks can characterize complex genetic relationships among groups of individuals, which can be used to rank nodes most important to the overall connectivity of the system. Ranking allows scarce resources to be guided toward nodes integral to connectivity. The greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a species of conservation concern that breeds on spatially discrete leks that must remain connected by genetic exchange for population persistence. We genotyped 5,950 individuals from 1,200 greater sage-grouse leks distributed across the entire species’ geographic range. We found a small-world network composed of 458 nodes connected by 14,481 edges. This network was composed of hubs—that is, nodes facilitating gene flow across the network—and spokes—that is, nodes where connectivity is served by hubs. It is within these hubs that the greatest genetic diversity was housed. Using indices of network centrality, we identified hub nodes of greatest conservation importance. We also identified keystone nodes with elevated centrality despite low local population size. Hub and keystone nodes were found across the entire species’ contiguous range, although nodes with elevated importance to network-wide connectivity were found more central: especially in northeastern, central, and southwestern Wyoming and eastern Idaho. Nodes among which genes are most readily exchanged were mostly located in Montana and northern Wyoming, as well as Utah and eastern Nevada. The loss of hub or keystone nodes could lead to the disintegration of the network into smaller, isolated subnetworks. Protecting both hub nodes and keystone nodes will conserve genetic diversity and should maintain network connections to ensure a resilient and viable population over time. Our analysis shows that network models can be used to model gene flow, offering insights into its pattern and process, with application to prioritizing landscapes for conservation.

Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Nevada↗

USGS1990

Applicability of ambient toxicity testing to national or regional water-quality assessment

Comprehensive assessment of the quality of natural waters requires a multifaceted approach. Descriptions of existing conditions may be achieved by various kinds of chemical and hydrologic analyses, whereas information about the effects of such conditions on living organisms depends on biological monitoring. Toxicity testing is one type of biological monitoring that can be used to identify possible effects of toxic contaminants. Based on experimentation designed to monitor responses of organisms to environmental stresses, toxicity testing may have diverse purposes in water-quality assessments. These purposes may include identification of areas that warrant further study because of poor water quality or unusual ecological features, verification of other types of monitoring, or assessment of contaminant effects on aquatic communities. Toxicity-test results are most effective when used as a complement to chemical analyses, hydrologic measurements, and other biological monitoring. However, all toxicity-testing procedures have certain limitations that must be considered in developing the methodology and applications of toxicity testing in any large-scale water-quality-assessment program. A wide variety of toxicity-test methods have been developed to fulfill the needs of diverse applications. The methods differ primarily in the selections made relative to four characteristics: (1) test species, (2) endpoint (acute or chronic), (3) test-enclosure type, and (4) test substance (toxicant) that functions as the environmental stress. Toxicity-test approaches vary in their capacity to meet the needs of large-scale assessments of existing water quality. Ambient testing, whereby the test organism is exposed to naturally occurring substances that contain toxicant mixtures in an organic or inorganic matrix, is more likely to meet these needs than are procedures that call for exposure of the test organisms to known concentrations of a single toxicant. However, meaningful interpretation of ambient test results depends on the existence of accompanying chemical analysis of the ambient media. The ambient test substance may be water or sediments. Sediment tests have had limited application, but they are useful because most toxicants tend to accumulate in sediments and many test species either inhabit the sediments or are in frequent contact with them. Biochemical testing methods, which have been developing rapidly in recent years, are likely to be among the most useful procedures for large-scale water-quality assessments. They are relatively rapid and simple, and more. importantly, they focus on biochemical changes that are the initial responses of virtually all organisms to environmental stimuli. Most species are sensitive to relatively few toxicants, and their sensitivities vary as conditions change. Therefore, each test method has particular uses and limitations, and no single test has universal applicability. One of the most informative approaches to toxicity testing is to combine biochemical tests with other test methods in a 'battery of tests' that is diversified enough to characterize different types of toxicants and different trophic levels. However, such an approach can be costly, and if not carefully designed, it may not yield enough additional information to warrant the additional cost. The application of toxicity tests to large-scale water-quality assessments is hampered by a number of difficulties. Toxicity tests often are not sensitive enough to enable detection of most contaminant problems in the natural environment. Furthermore, because sensitivities among different species and test conditions can be highly variable, conclusions about the toxicant problems of an ecosystem are strongly dependent on the test procedure used. In addition, the experimental systems used in toxicity tests cannot replicate the complexity or variability of natural conditions, and positive test results cannot identify the source or nature of

Circular↗

USGS2013

Measuring the relative resilience of subarctic lakes to global change: redundancies of functions within and across temporal scales

1. Ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are expected to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global change. We assessed the responses of littoral invertebrate communities to changing abiotic conditions in subarctic Swedish lakes with long-term data (1988–2010) and compared the responses of subarctic lakes with those of more southern, hemiboreal lakes. 2. We used a complex systems approach, based on multivariate time-series modelling, and identified dominant and distinct temporal frequencies in the data; that is, we tracked community change at distinct temporal scales. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across temporal scales. Within and cross-scale distributions of functions have been considered to confer resilience to ecosystems, despite changing environmental conditions. 3. Two patterns of temporal change within the invertebrate communities were identified that were consistent across the lakes. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second was one of showing fluctuation patterns largely unrelated to gradual environmental change. Thus, two dominant and distinct temporal frequencies (temporal scales) were present in all lakes analysed. 4. Although the contribution of individual feeding groups varied between subarctic and hemiboreal lakes, they shared overall similar functional attributes (richness, evenness, diversity) and redundancies of functions within and between the observed temporal scales. This highlights similar resilience characteristics in subarctic and hemiboreal lakes. 5. Synthesis and applications. The effects of global change can be particularly strong at a single scale in ecosystems. Over time, this can cause monotonic change in communities and eventually lead to a loss of important ecosystem services upon reaching a critical threshold. Dynamics at other spatial or temporal scales can be unrelated to environmental change. The relative ‘intactness’ of these scales that are unaffected by global change and the persistence of functions at those scales may safeguard the whole system from the potential loss of functions at the scale at which global change impacts can be substantial. Thus, an understanding of scale-specific processes provides managers with a realistic assessment of vulnerabilities and the relative resilience of ecosystems to environmental change. Explicit consideration of ‘intact’ and ‘affected’ scales in analyses of global change impacts provides opportunities to tailor more specific management plans.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2025

Mammalian predator co‐occurrence affected by prey and habitat more than competitor presence at multiple time scales

The behavior and abundance of sympatric predators can be affected by a complex dominance hierarchy. The strength of antagonistic interactions in predator communities is difficult to study and remains poorly understood for many predator assemblages. Predators directly and indirectly influence the broader ecosystem, so identifying the relative importance of competition, prey, and habitat in shaping predator interactions has broad conservation and management implications. We investigated space use among five predator species (black bear [ Ursus americanus ], bobcat [ Lynx rufus ], coyote [ Canis latrans ], mountain lion [ Puma concolor ], and gray wolf [ Canis lupus ]) across three temporal scales in northern Idaho, USA. We used camera trap data to test whether potentially subordinate predators spatially avoided dominant predators and how prey availability influenced those relationships. We found few instances of subordinate predators spatially avoiding dominant predators and only at the finest temporal scale of our analyses. Instead, habitat features generally influenced predator space use patterns at coarser scales whereas prey and competitor presence influenced space use patterns at finer scales. Co-occurrence was positively associated between coyotes and bobcats at coarser timescales and between mesopredators and apex predators at finer timescales. Bobcats and mountain lions temporarily delayed the use of sites recently visited by coyotes and black bears, respectively. And all predator species used sites sooner following the detection of a competitor in areas with higher relative abundances of prey (primarily white-tailed deer [ Odocoileus virginianus ]). Our results suggest attraction to shared habitats and prey resources influenced space use in the predator community more than avoidance of competitors. We propose that the effects of interspecific interactions on predator distributions were most evident for mesopredators because their trophic position requires balancing risks and rewards associated with prey, apex predators, and other mesopredators. In addition, relatively high densities of a common prey source likely facilitated the spatial coexistence in this predator community. Our study demonstrates the value of simultaneously assessing multiple interspecific interactions across different spatiotemporal scales to discern relationships within the predator guild.

Idaho↗

USGS2023

High resolution lidar data shed light on inter-island translocation of endangered bird species in the Hawaiian Islands

Translocation, often a management solution reserved for at-risk species, is a highly time-sensitive intervention in the face of a rapidly changing climate. The definition of abiotic and biotic habitat requirements is essential to the selection of appropriate release sites in novel environments. However, field-based approaches to gathering this information are often too time intensive, especially in areas of complex topography where common, coarse-scale climate models lack essential details. We apply a fine-scale remote sensing-based approach to study the 'akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and 'akeke'e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ), Hawaiian honeycreepers endemic to Kaua'i that are experiencing large-scale population declines due to warming-induced spread of invasive disease. We use habitat suitability modeling based on fine-scale light detection and ranging (lidar)-derived habitat structure metrics to refine coarse climate ranges for these species in candidate translocation areas on Maui. We found that canopy density was consistently the most important variable in defining habitat suitability for the two Kaua'i species. Our models also corroborated known habitat preferences and behavioral information for these species that are essential for informing translocation. We estimated a nesting habitat that will persist under future climate conditions on east Maui of 23.43 km 2 for 'akikiki, compared to the current Kaua'i range of 13.09 km 2 . In contrast, the novel nesting range for 'akeke'e in east Maui was smaller than its current range on Kaua'i (26.29 vs. 38.48 km 2 , respectively). We were also able to assess detailed novel competitive interactions at a fine scale using models of three endemic Maui species of conservation concern: 'ākohekohe ( Palmeria dolei ), Maui 'alauahio ( Paroreomyza montana ), and kiwikiu ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ). Weighted overlap areas between the species from both islands were moderate (<12 km 2 ), and correlations between Maui and Kaua'i bird habitat were generally low, indicating limited potential for competition. Results indicate that translocation to east Maui could be a viable option for 'akikiki but would be more uncertain for 'akeke'e. Our novel multifaceted approach allows for the timely analysis of both climate and vegetation structure at informative scales for the effective selection of appropriate translocation sites for at-risk species.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides data that can be used in complex, multiscale analyses of population change, while controlling for scale‐specific nuisance factors. Many alternative models can be fit to the data, but most model selection procedures are not appropriate for hierarchical models. Leave‐one‐out cross‐validation (LOOCV), in which relative model fit is assessed by omitting an observation and assessing the prediction of a model fit using the remainder of the data, provides a reasonable approach for assessing models, but is time consuming and not feasible to apply for all observations in large data sets. We report the first large‐scale formal model selection for BBS data, applying LOOCV to stratified random samples of observations from BBS data. Our results are for 548 species of North American birds, comparing the fit of four alternative models that differ in year effect structures and in descriptions of extra‐Poisson overdispersion. We use a hierarchical model among species to evaluate posterior probabilities that models are best for individual species. Models in which differences in year effects are conditionally independent (D models) were generally favored over models in which year effects are modeled by a slope parameter and a random year effect (S models), and models in which extra‐Poisson overdispersion effects are independent and t ‐distributed (H models) tended to be favored over models where overdispersion was independent and normally distributed. Our conclusions lead us to recommend a change from the conventional S model to D and H models for the vast majority of species (544/548). Comparison of estimated population trends based on the favored model relative to the S model currently used for BBS summaries indicates no consistent differences in estimated trends. Of the 18 species that showed large differences in estimated trends between models, estimated trends from the default S model were more extreme, reflecting the influence of the slope parameter in that model for species that are undergoing large population changes. WAIC, a computationally simpler alternative to LOOCV, does not appear to be a reliable alternative to LOOCV.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2016

Comparison of benthos and plankton for selected areas of concern and non-areas of concern in western Lake Michigan Rivers and Harbors in 2012

Recent data are lacking to assess whether impairments still exist at four of Wisconsin’s largest Lake Michigan harbors that were designated as Areas of Concern (AOCs) in the late 1980s due to sediment contamination and multiple Beneficial Use Impairments (BUIs), such as those affecting benthos (macroinvertebrates) and plankton (zooplankton and phytoplankton) communities. During three seasonal sampling events (“seasons”) in May through August 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey collected sediment benthos and water plankton at the four AOCs as well as six less-degraded non-AOCs along the western Lake Michigan shoreline to assess whether AOC communities were degraded in comparison to non-AOC communities. The four AOCs are the Lower Menominee River, the Lower Green Bay and Fox River, the Sheboygan River, and the Milwaukee Estuary. Due to their size and complexity, multiple locations or “subsites” were sampled within the Lower Green Bay and Fox River AOC (Lower Green Bay, the Fox River near Allouez, and the Fox River near De Pere) and within the Milwaukee Estuary AOC (the Milwaukee River, the Menomonee River, and the Milwaukee Harbor) and single locations were sampled at the other AOCs and non-AOCs. The six non-AOCs are the Escanaba River in Michigan, and the Oconto River, Ahnapee River, Kewaunee River, Manitowoc River, and Root River in Wisconsin. Benthos samples were collected by using Hester-Dendy artificial substrates deployed for 30 days and by using a dredge sampler; zooplankton were collected by net and phytoplankton by whole-water sampler. Except for the Lower Green Bay and Milwaukee Harbor locations, communities at each AOC were compared to all non-AOCs as a group and to paired non-AOCs using taxa relative abundances and metrics, including richness, diversity, and an Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI, for Hester-Dendy samples only). Benthos samples collected during one or more seasons were rated as degraded for at least one metric at all AOCs. In the Milwaukee Estuary, benthos richness was lower in the Milwaukee River subsite spring and summer samples and in the Menomonee River subsite spring sample relative to the paired non-AOCs. Benthos diversity and IBIs at the Menomonee River subsite and IBIs at the Milwaukee River subsite and Sheboygan River were significantly lower than at all non-AOCs as a group across all seasons and therefore were rated as degraded. In addition, IBIs at the Lower Menominee River were significantly lower than those at the paired non-AOCs during all seasons and were therefore rated degraded. Benthos at both Fox River subsites and the Milwaukee River subsite were significantly different from their paired non-AOCs during all three seasons, based on a comparison of the relative abundances of taxa using multivariate testing. Metrics for plankton at AOCs were not significantly lower than those at the paired or group non-AOCs during all seasons; however, zooplankton richness in spring at the Sheboygan River and in fall at the Menomonee River subsite was rated as degraded in comparison to paired non-AOCs. Also, zooplankton richness in fall at the Fox River near Allouez subsite and in spring at the Milwaukee River subsite was rated degraded overall because values were lower than at all non-AOCs as a group and lower than at the paired non-AOCs. Zooplankton diversity in fall at the Fox River near Allouez subsite and the Lower Menominee River was rated degraded in comparison to paired non-AOC comparison sites. Zooplankton communities at the Fox River near Allouez subsite were significantly different from the paired non-AOCs when multivariate comparisons were made without rotifers other than A. priodonta . Overall, benthos and zooplankton BUIs remained at the AOCs in 2012 but no AOCs with a phytoplankton BUI were rated degraded in comparison to non-AOCs. The use of a multiple ecological measures, structural and functional, and multiple statistical analyses, biological metrics and multivariate statistics, provided assessments that defined 2012 status of communities relative to less-impaired non-AOCs in the Great Lakes area.

Michigan↗

USGS2014

Synthesis of studies in the fall low-salinity zone of the San Francisco Estuary, September-December 2011

In fall 2011, a large-scale investigation (fall low-salinity habitat investigation) was implemented by the Bureau of Reclamation in cooperation with the Interagency Ecological Program to explore hypotheses about the ecological role of low-salinity habitat in the San Francisco Estuary—specifically, hypotheses about the importance of fall low-salinity habitat to the biology of delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus , a species endemic to the San Francisco Estuary and listed as threatened or endangered under federal and state endangered species legislation. The Interagency Ecological Program is a consortium of 10 agencies that work together to develop a better understanding of the ecology of the Estuary and the effects of the State Water Project and Federal Central Valley Project operations on the physical, chemical, and biological conditions of the San Francisco Estuary. The fall low-salinity habitat investigation constitutes one of the actions stipulated in the Reasonable and Prudent Alternative issued with the 2008 Biological Opinion of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which called for adaptive management of fall Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta outflow following “wet” and “above normal” water years to alleviate jeopardy to delta smelt and adverse modification of delta smelt critical habitat. The basic hypothesis of the adaptive management of fall low-salinity habitat is that greater outflows move the low-salinity zone (salinity 1–6), an important component of delta smelt habitat, westward and that moving the low-salinity zone westward of its position in the fall of recent years will benefit delta smelt, although the specific mechanisms providing such benefit are uncertain. An adaptive management plan was prepared to guide implementation of the adaptive management of fall low-salinity habitat and to reduce uncertainty. This report has three major objectives: • To provide a summary of the results from the first year of coordinated fall low-salinity habitat studies and monitoring. • To provide a synthesis of the results of the fall low-salinity habitat studies and other ongoing research and monitoring, to determine if the available information supports the hypotheses behind the adaptive management of fall low-salinity habitat as set forth in the adaptive management plan. • To begin to put the results from the fall low-salinity habitat studies into context within the larger body of knowledge regarding the San Francisco Estuary and, in particular, the upper San Francisco Estuary, including the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, Suisun Bay, and associated embayments. The basic approach of this report is to evaluate predictions derived from the hypotheses included in the conceptual model developed within the adaptive management plan. All available data from studies and monitoring conducted in fall 2011 and similar data from fall 2006, which was the most recent wet year preceding 2011, were considered. Data from 2005 and 2010 were also considered, to include the conditions antecedent to those years. Many of the predictions either could not be evaluated with the data available, or the needed data were not collected. Most of the predictions that could be addressed involved either the abiotic habitat components (that is, the physical environment) or delta smelt responses. In general, the fall low-salinity habitat investigation has been largely inconclusive as of the writing of this report. This is not to be unexpected in the first year of what is intended to be a multi-year adaptive-management effort. This report can be viewed as the first chapter of a “living document” that is to be continually updated as part of the adaptive management cycle. The results of this report, especially predictions with insufficient data for evaluation, indicate a number of science-based approaches to improve the fall low-salinity habitat investigations: • Develop a method of measuring “hydrodynamic complexity.” This concept is central to a number of the predictions that could not be evaluated. • Determine if wind speed warrants a stand-alone prediction. The wind-speed prediction is directly related to the turbidity predictions, and wind is only one of several factors important for determining turbidity. • Determine the correct spatial and temporal scale or scales necessary for monitoring and for studies to address the predicted abiotic and biotic responses. Many of the assessments in this report were based on monthly sampling of dynamic habitat components, such as phytoplankton and zooplankton populations, that can change on daily scales. • Address the nutrient predictions as part of developing a phytoplankton production model that includes nutrient cycling and other important processes, if feasible. At a minimum develop a mechanistic conceptual model to support more processed-based interpretations of data or design of new studies, rather than making simple predictions of increase or decrease. • Determine if studies of predation rates are feasible in areas where there are delta smelt.

California↗

USGS2026

Social influences complement environmental cues to stimulate migrating juvenile salmon

Background The large-scale seasonal migrations undertaken by many species require complex navigational and timing decisions. Animals migrating in groups might benefit from collective decision making, especially if the environment has large local variation rather than smooth gradients in, for example, salinity or temperature, or is unpredictable, or if the migrants cannot rely on individually acquired information. We focus on juvenile salmon whose downstream migration is timed to match suitable conditions for growth and survival at sea. While the environmental and physiological factors that influence the timing of migration have been well studied, the influence of social interactions on migration timing is poorly understood. Method We compiled data on two species of juvenile salmon, collected at traps over 19 years, during their downstream seaward migration in three rivers in Washington state along with relevant environmental data. We developed state space statistical models to estimate the influence of hatchery-produced salmon in stimulating the downstream migration of wild salmon, while also incorporating potential environmental stimuli. Results Our results are consistent with the “pied-piper” hypothesis that large numbers of migrating hatchery-origin salmon provide a social cue stimulating migration of co-occurring wild salmon. The increase in the number of hatchery salmon counted at the trap was a strong predictor of the increase in wild sub-yearling Chinook salmon in the Dungeness, Puyallup, and Skagit rivers and yearling coho salmon in the Puyallup and Skagit rivers. Migration timing was also associated with abiotic factors related to temperature, river flow, and time of year. Conclusions Our findings highlight the potential for social cues to affect migration timing of downstream migrating salmon, in concert with environmental factors. Incorporating social information into timing decisions may allow animals to benefit from collective decision-making strategies and better time their migrations. Moreover, understanding the effects of large-scale hatchery releases on wild salmon migration may provide valuable insights for planning the timing and duration of hatchery releases.

British Columbia, Washington↗

USGS2014

A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of thefederally-threatened piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ) using barrier island features

Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modelling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model’s dataset. We found that model predictions were more successful when the range of physical conditions included in model development was varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modelling impacts of sea-level rise- or human-related habitat change on barrier islands. We recommend that potential users of this method utilize multiple years of data that represent a wide range of physical conditions in model development, because the model performed less well when constructed using a narrow range of physical conditions. Further, given that there will always be some uncertainty in predictions of future physical habitat conditions related to sea-level rise and/or human development, predictive models will perform best when developed using multiple, varied years of data input.

Maryl↗

USGS2022

Pathways of productivity and influences on top consumers in forested streams

Forested stream ecosystems involve complex physical and biotic pathways that can influence fish in numerous ways. Consequently, the responses of fish communities to disturbance can be difficult to understand. In this study, we employed a food web model that links biotic (e.g., physiology, predator–prey interactions) and abiotic (e.g., temperature, sunlight) attributes to address fish responses to changes in stream-riparian ecosystems. We modeled responses to food web dynamics in four streams, using scenarios that included responses to riparian disturbance, climate change, and shifts in top consumers. The two consumers we focused on were coastal cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii ) and sculpin ( Cottus spp., collectively treated as a functional group) . We found the responses to environmental changes varied by fish species and among streams, and that responses were not independent due to exploitative interspecific competition. Simulations based on long-term data indicated that coastal cutthroat trout were responsive to changes in allochthonous resources including terrestrial detritus and invertebrates, whereas sculpin were more responsive to changes to autochthonous resources that included, periphyton and aquatic invertebrates. These results may be, in part, a consequence of species-specific foraging behavior. Trout have a higher propensity to drift feed and therefore receive a substantial subsidy from terrestrial invertebrates, whereas sculpin feed mostly on aquatic insects on the streambed. Simulations of changes in summer temperature and stream discharge suggest decreased biomass of both fish species because of physiological constraints on invertebrate prey which reduce fish foraging opportunities. Exploitative competition also may be important in fish responses: when one fish taxon was removed, the other showed increased biomass. Although the pattern of simulation results was consistent across the four streams, the magnitude of change varied among streams. Streams with food webs fueled by multiple energy sources may be more resilient to changes to riparian forests and climate. Through application of a systems model, we gained insights into pathways of productivity for fish in forested stream ecosystems that provide understanding of processes that influence fish and streams, as well as implications for management of both.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2009

Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: Implications for climate feedbacks

Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003–2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch ( Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration ( R H ) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 ± 0.23 W·m −2 ·10 yr −1 [mean ± SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (−5.1 ± 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat absorption (3.3 ± 1.24 W·m −2 ·10 yr −1 ) than that associated with increases in vegetation. Through quantifying feedbacks associated with changes in vegetation and those associated with changes in the snow season length, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the climate system.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Habitat, wildlife and one health: Arcanobacterium pyogenes in Maryland and Upper Eastern Shore white-tailed deer populations

Background : Understanding the distribution of disease in wildlife is key to predicting the impact of emerging zoonotic one health concerns, especially for wildlife species with extensive human and livestock interfaces. The widespread distribution and complex interactions of white - tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) with humans suggest deer population health and management may have implications beyond stewardship of the animals. The intracranial abscessation suppurative meningitis (IASM) disease complex in deer has been linked to Arcanobacterium pyogenes , an under - diagnosed and often misdiagnosed organism considered commensal in domestic livestock but associated with serious disease in numerous species, including humans. Methods : Our study used standard bacterial culture techniques to assess A. pyogenes prevalence among male deer sampled across six physiogeographic regions in Maryland and male and female deer in the Upper Eastern Shore under Traditional Deer Management (TDM) and Quality Deer Management (QDM), a management protocol that alters population demographics in favor of older male deer. Samples were collected from antler pedicles for males, the top of the head where pedicles would be if present for females, or the whole dorsal frontal area of the head for neonates. We collected nasal samples from all animals by swabbing the nasopharyngeal membranes. A gram stain and catalase test were conducted, and aerobic bacteria were identified to genus and species when possible. We evaluated the effect of region on whether deer carried A. pyogenes using Pearson's chi-square test with Yates’ continuity correction. For the white-tailed deer management study, we tested whether site, age class and sex predisposed animals to carrying A. pyogenes using binary logistic regression. Results : A. pyogenes was detected on deer in three of the six regions studied, and was common in only one region, the Upper Eastern Shore. In the Upper Eastern Shore, 45% and 66% of antler and nasal swabs from deer were positive for A. pyogenes , respectively. On the Upper Eastern Shore, prevalence of A. pyogenes cultured from deer did not differ between management areas, and was abundant among both sexes and across all age classes. No A. pyogenes was cultured from a small sample of neonates. Conclusion : Our study indicates A. pyogenes may be carried widely among white-tailed deer regardless of sex or age class, but we found no evidence the pathogen is acquired in utero. The distribution of A. pyogenes across regions and concentration in a region with low livestock levels suggests the potential for localized endemicity of the organism and the possibility that deer may serve as a maintenance reservoir for an emerging one health concern.

Infection Ecology and Epidemiology↗