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New optically stimulated luminescence ages provide evidence of MIS3 and MIS2 eolian activity on Black Mesa, northeastern Arizona, USA

Eolian deposition on the semiarid southern Colorado Plateau has been attributed to episodic aridity during the Quaternary Period. However, OSL ages from three topographically controlled (e.g. falling) dunes on Black Mesa in northeastern Arizona indicate that eolian sediments there were deposited in deep tributary valleys as early as 35–30 ka, with most sand deposited before 20 ka. In contrast, the oldest OSL ages for sand sheets fall within the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition (~ 12–8 ka). Thus most eolian sediment accumulated on Black Mesa under climatic conditions that were in general cooler, moister, and more variable than today, not more arid, pointing to a considerable increase in sediment supply.

Arizona↗

Oxygen isotopes in terrestrial gastropod shells track Quaternary climate change in the American Southwest

Recent studies have shown the oxygen isotopic composition (δ 18 O) of modern terrestrial gastropod shells is determined largely by the δ 18 O of precipitation. This implies that fossil shells could be used to reconstruct the δ 18 O of paleo-precipitation as long as the isotopic system, including the hydrologic pathways of the local watershed and the gastropod systematics, is well understood. In this study, we measured the δ 18 O values of 456 individual gastropod shells collected from paleowetland deposits in the San Pedro Valley, Arizona that range in age from ca. 29.1 to 9.8 ka. Isotopic differences of up to 2‰ were identified among the four taxa analyzed (Succineidae, Pupilla hebes , Gastrocopta tappaniana , and Vallonia gracilicosta ), with Succineidae shells yielding the highest values and V . gracilicosta shells exhibiting the lowest values. We used these data to construct a composite isotopic record that incorporates these taxonomic offsets, and found shell δ 18 O values increased by ~4‰ between the last glacial maximum and early Holocene, which is similar to the magnitude, direction, and rate of isotopic change recorded by speleothems in the region. These results suggest the terrestrial gastropods analyzed here may be used as a proxy for past climate in a manner that is complementary to speleothems, but potentially with much greater spatial coverage.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah↗

Late glacial–Younger Dryas climate in interior Alaska as inferred from the isotope values of land snail shells

The isotope values of fossil snail shells can be important archives of climate. Here, we present the first carbon (δ 13 C) and oxygen (δ 18 O) isotope values of snail shells in interior Alaska to explore changes in vegetation and humidity through the late-glacial period. Snail shell δ 13 C values were relatively consistent through the late glacial. However, late-glacial shell δ 13 C values are 2.8‰ higher than those of modern shells. This offset is best explained by the Suess effect and changes in the δ 13 C values of snail diet. Snail shell δ 18 O values varied through the late glacial, which can be partially explained by changes in relative humidity (RH). RH during the snail growing period was modeled based on a published flux balance model. Results suggest a dry period toward the beginning of the Bølling–Allerød (~14 ka) followed by two distinct stages of the Younger Dryas, a wetter stage in the early Younger Dryas from 12.9 to 12.3 ka, and subsequent drier stage in the late Younger Dryas between 12.3 and 11.7 ka. The results show that land snail isotopes in high-latitude regions may be used as a supplementary paleoclimate proxy to help clarify complex climate histories, such as those of interior Alaska during the Younger Dryas.

Alaska↗

Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level

Assumptions of a static landscape inspire predictions that about half of the world's coastal wetlands will submerge during this century in response to sea-level acceleration. In contrast, we use simulations from five numerical models to quantify the conditions under which ecogeomorphic feedbacks allow coastal wetlands to adapt to projected changes in sea level. In contrast to previous sea-level assessments, we find that non-linear feedbacks among inundation, plant growth, organic matter accretion, and sediment deposition, allow marshes to survive conservative projections of sea-level rise where suspended sediment concentrations are greater than ~20 mg/L. Under scenarios of more rapid sea-level rise (e.g., those that include ice sheet melting), marshes will likely submerge near the end of the 21st century. Our results emphasize that in areas of rapid geomorphic change, predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change requires consideration of the ability of biological processes to modify their physical environment.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Downstream‐propagating channel responses to decadal‐scale climate variability in a glaciated river basin

Regional climate is an important control on the rate of coarse sediment mobilization and transport in alpine river systems. Changes in climate are then expected to cause a cascade of geomorphic responses, including adjustments in downstream channel morphology. However, the mechanics and sensitivity of channel response to short‐term climate variability remain poorly documented. In the Nooksack River, which drains a glaciated stratovolcano in Washington State, bed elevation changes were inferred from shifting stage–discharge relations at seven USGS stream gages. Decadal‐scale elevation trends at most sites can be explained as a downstream‐propagating channel response to regional climate variability, where periods of persistent warm, dry [cool, wet] conditions corresponded to periods of aggradation [incision]. The channel elevation response propagated downstream at a rate of one to four kilometers per year; propagation rate scaled closely with channel slope. Historical trends in glacier extent and flood intensity both show some potential to explain climate–sediment linkages, though assessing causation is complicated by the shared climate signal in both records. Results show the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with relatively high coarse sediment yields prior to 1950 and since 1980, and notably lower sediment yields from 1950 to 1980. Measured sediment yields from nearby glaciated basins corroborate this history, suggesting a regional coherence to these climate–sediment linkages. These results document consistent relations between climate, sediment supply and downstream channel response at the basin‐scale, with channel responses propagating downstream over periods of decades with little apparent attenuation.

Washington↗

Sulfate-rich eolian and wet interdune deposits, erebus crater, meridiani Planum, Mars

This study investigates three bedrock exposures at Erebus crater, an ?? 300 m diameter crater approximately 4 km south of Endurance crater on Mars. These outcrops, called Olympia, Payson, and Yavapai, provide additional evidence in support of the dune-interdune model proposed for the formation of the deposits at the Opportunity landing site in Meridiani Planum. There is evidence for greater involvement of liquid water in the Olympia outcrop exposures than was observed in Eagle or Endurance craters. The Olympia outcrop likely formed in a wet interdune and sand sheet environment. The facies observed within the Payson outcrop, which is likely stratigraphically above the Olympia outcrop, indicate that it was deposited in a damp-wet interdune, sand sheet, and eolian dune environment. The Yavapai outcrop, which likely stratigraphically overlies the Payson outcrop, indicates that it was deposited in primarily a sand sheet environment and also potentially in an eolian dune environment. These three outcrop exposures may indicate an overall drying-upward trend spanning the stratigraphic section from its base at the Olympia outcrop to its top at the Yavapai outcrop. This contrasts with the wetting-upward trend seen in Endurance and Eagle craters. Thus, the series of outcrops seen at Meridiani by Opportunity may constitute a full climatic cycle, evolving from dry to wet to dry conditions. ?? 2009, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

Journal of Sedimentary Research↗

Tertiary and Quaternary deposits at The Palisades, central Alaska

The Palisades of the Yukon River, located near the geographic center of Alaska, has long been an attraction to people traveling along the river. Numerous scientific field parties have viewed or visited the locality and published short accounts of their observations. The river bluffs are as much as 90 meters high and are composed of Tertiary lignite-rich sedimentary rocks and frozen Quaternary sand, silt, and gravel. Resampling and analysis of pollen show that the Tertiary rocks are Miocene rather than Miocene and Pliocene as previously thought. The Miocene flora, possessing a number of conifer and hardwood-tree types, was more varied than the present vegetation and indicates a warmer and wetter climate than at present. The area is frequently referred to as the boneyard because of the common occurrence of large bones of Pleistocene mammals within the frozen silts.

Alaska↗

Searching for a life history approach to salmon escapement management

A number of Pacific salmon populations have already been lost and many others throughout the range are in various states of decline. Recent research has documented that Pacific salmon carcasses serve as a key delivery vector of marine-derived nutrients into the freshwater portions of their ecosystems. This nutrient supply plays a critical biological feedback role in salmon sustainability by supporting juvenile salmon production. We first demonstrate how nutrient feedback potential to juvenile production may be unaccounted for in spawner-recruit models of populations under long-term exploitation. We then present a heuristic, life history-based, spreadsheet survival model that incorporates salmon carcass-driven nutrient feedback to the freshwater components of the salmon ecosystem. The productivity of a hypothetical coho salmon population was simulated using rates from the literature for survival from spawner to egg, egg to fry, fry to smolt, and smolt to adult. The effects of climate variation and nutrient feedback on survival were incorporated, as were density-dependent effects of the numbers of spawners and fry on freshwater survival of eggs and juveniles. The unexploited equilibrium population was subjected to 100 years of 20, 40, 60, and 80% harvest. Each harvest scenario greater than 20% brought the population to a reduced steady state, regardless of generous compensatory survival at low population sizes. Increasing harvest reduced the positive effects of nutrient contributions to population growth. Salmon researchers should further explore this modeling approach for establishing escapement goals. Given the importance of nutrient feedback, managers should strive for generous escapements that support nutrient rebuilding, as well as egg deposition, to ensure strong future salmon production.

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗

Comparison of episodic acidification of Mid-Atlantic Upland and Coastal Plain streams

Episodic acidification was examined in five mid-Atlantic watersheds representing three physiographic provinces: Coastal Plain, Valley and Ridge, and Blue Ridge. Each of the watersheds receives a similar loading of atmospheric pollutants (SO 4 2− and NO 3 − ) and is underlain by different bedrock type. The purpose of this research was to quantify and compare the episodic variability in storm flow chemistry in Reedy Creek, Virginia (Coastal Plain), Mill Run and Shelter Run, Virginia (Valley and Ridge), and Fishing Creek Tributary and Hunting Creek, Maryland (Blue Ridge). Because episodic responses were similar from storm to storm in each of the watersheds, a representative storm from each watershed was discussed. Acidification, defined as the loss of acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), was observed in all streams except Mill Run. Mill Run chemistry showed little episodic variability. During storms in the other streams, p H decreased while SO 4 2− , NO 3 − , and K + concentrations increased. Concentrations of Mg 2+ and Ca 2+ increased in Reedy Creek and Fishing Creek Tributary, but decreased in Shelter Run and Hunting Creek. Therefore the net effect of episodic changes on the acid-base status differed among the streams. In general, greater losses of ANC were observed during storms at Shelter Run and Hunting Creek, watersheds underlain by reactive bedrock (carbonate, metabasalt); comparatively smaller losses in ANC were observed at Reedy Creek and Fishing Creek Tributary, watersheds underlain by quartzites and unconsolidated quartz sands and cobbles. Increased SO 4 2− concentrations were most important during storms at Reedy Creek and Fishing Creek Tributary, but organic anions (inferred by anion deficit) were also a factor in causing the loss of ANC. Dilution of base cations was the most important factor in the loss of ANC at Shelter Run. Both increased sulfate and dilution of base flow were important in causing the episodic acidification at Hunting Creek. The role of SO 4 2− in contributing to episodic acidification in these watersheds is similar to that documented in studies conducted in other regions of the United States, Scandinavia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The importance of SO 4 2− in mid-Atlantic United States streams contrasts with northeastern United States streams, in which increased NO 3 - derived from snowpack is more important in causing episodic acidification. Results support the importance of shallow subsurface processes in determining storm flow chemistry, regional climatic characteristics in determining the different sources of acidity during episodes, and the importance of bedrock geology in determining the amount of ANC loss.

Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia↗

Integrated groundwater management: An overview of concepts and challenges

Managing water is a grand challenge problem and has become one of humanity’s foremost priorities. Surface water resources are typically societally managed and relatively well understood; groundwater resources, however, are often hidden and more difficult to conceptualize. Replenishment rates of groundwater cannot match past and current rates of depletion in many parts of the world. In addition, declining quality of the remaining groundwater commonly cannot support all agricultural, industrial and urban demands and ecosystem functioning, especially in the developed world. In the developing world, it can fail to even meet essential human needs. The issue is: how do we manage this crucial resource in an acceptable way, one that considers the sustainability of the resource for future generations and the socioeconomic and environmental impacts? In many cases this means restoring aquifers of concern to some sustainable equilibrium over a negotiated period of time, and seeking opportunities for better managing groundwater conjunctively with surface water and other resource uses. However, there are many, often-interrelated, dimensions to managing groundwater effectively. Effective groundwater management is underpinned by sound science (biophysical and social) that actively engages the wider community and relevant stakeholders in the decision making process. Generally, an integrated approach will mean “thinking beyond the aquifer”, a view which considers the wider context of surface water links, catchment management and cross-sectoral issues with economics, energy, climate, agriculture and the environment. The aim of the book is to document for the first time the dimensions and requirements of sound integrated groundwater management (IGM). The primary focus is on groundwater management within its system, but integrates linkages beyond the aquifer. The book provides an encompassing synthesis for researchers, practitioners and water resource managers on the concepts and tools required for defensible IGM, including how IGM can be applied to achieve more sustainable socioeconomic and environmental outcomes, and key challenges of IGM. The book is divided into five parts: integration overview and problem settings; governance; socioeconomics; biophysical aspects; and modelling and decision support. However, IGM is integrated by definition, thus these divisions should be considered a convenience for presenting the topics rather than hard and fast demarcations of the topic area.

Book chapter↗

Conservation of native Pacific trout diversity in western North America

Pacific trout Oncorhynchus spp. in western North America are strongly valued in ecological, socioeconomic, and cultural views, and have been the subject of substantial research and conservation efforts. Despite this, the understanding of their evolutionary histories, overall diversity, and challenges to their conservation is incomplete. We review the state of knowledge on these important issues, focusing on Pacific trout in the genus Oncorhynchus. Although most research on salmonid fishes emphasizes Pacific salmon, we focus on Pacific trout because they share a common evolutionary history, and many taxa in western North America have not been formally described, particularly in the southern extent of their ranges. Research in recent decades has led to the revision of many hypotheses concerning the origin and diversification of Pacific trout throughout their range. Although there has been significant success at addressing past threats to Pacific trout, contemporary and future threats represented by nonnative species, land and water use activities, and climate change pose challenges and uncertainties. Ultimately, conservation of Pacific trout depends on how well these issues are understood and addressed, and on solutions that allow these species to coexist with a growing scope of human influences.

Fisheries↗

Accounting for false-positive acoustic detections of bats using occupancy models

1. Acoustic surveys have become a common survey method for bats and other vocal taxa. Previous work shows that bat echolocation may be misidentified, but common analytic methods, such as occupancy models, assume that misidentifications do not occur. Unless rare, such misidentifications could lead to incorrect inferences with significant management implications. 2. We fit a false-positive occupancy model to data from paired bat detector and mist-net surveys to estimate probability of presence when survey data may include false positives. We compared estimated occupancy and detection rates to those obtained from a standard occupancy model. We also derived a formula to estimate the probability that bats were present at a site given its detection history. As an example, we analysed survey data for little brown bats Myotis lucifugus from 135 sites in Washington and Oregon, USA. 3. We estimated that at an unoccupied site, acoustic surveys had a 14% chance per night of producing spurious M. lucifugus detections. Estimated detection rates were higher and occupancy rates were lower under the false-positive model, relative to a standard occupancy model. Un-modelled false positives also affected inferences about occupancy at individual sites. For example, probability of occupancy at individual sites with acoustic detections but no captures ranged from 2% to 100% under the false-positive occupancy model, but was always 100% under a standard occupancy model. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that false positives sufficient to affect inferences may be common in acoustic surveys for bats. We demonstrate an approach that can estimate occupancy, regardless of the false-positive rate, when acoustic surveys are paired with capture surveys. Applications of this approach include monitoring the spread of White-Nose Syndrome, estimating the impact of climate change and informing conservation listing decisions. We calculate a site-specific probability of occupancy, conditional on survey results, which could inform local permitting decisions, such as for wind energy projects. More generally, the magnitude of false positives suggests that false-positive occupancy models can improve accuracy in research and monitoring of bats and provide wildlife managers with more reliable information.

Oregon, Washington↗

Density-dependent and environmental influences on juvenile walleye Sander vitreus (Mitchill) survivorship in northern Wisconsin lakes

Walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill), natural recruitment has declined in northern Wisconsin lakes over time. Age-0 and age-1 walleye relative abundance (catch per unit effort; CPE) data from northern Wisconsin (1986–2019) were used to test for abiotic (i.e. lake characteristics and temperature variables) and biotic (age-0 and age-1 CPE) factors influencing age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality. Age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality was elevated at high age-0 CPE and variable at low age-0 CPE, which indicated strong density-dependence. Environmental factors such as spawning and ontogenetic phenology (climate change and ice-off dates), trophic mismatches, and metabolic and consumptive demand influenced age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality less strongly. Elevated age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality at low age-0 CPE supports previous findings of depensatory recruitment dynamics in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Additional research is needed to address elevated juvenile walleye mortality at low adult stock sizes and/or with declining natural recruitment to inform management decisions.

Wisconsin↗

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional-scale species distribution models — A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Species distribution models (SDM) that rely on regional-scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local-scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land-use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional-scale variables to drive patterns of species distribution. Incorporating these human-induced factors into SDMs remains a major research challenge, in part because spatial variability in these factors occurs at fine scales, rendering prediction over regional extents problematic. Here, we used big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) as a model species to explore whether including human-induced factors improves the fit of the SDM. We applied a Bayesian hurdle spatial approach using 21,753 data points of field-sampled vegetation obtained from the LANDFIRE program to model sagebrush occurrence and cover by incorporating fire history metrics and restoration treatments from 1980 to 2015 throughout the Great Basin of North America.

Global Change Biology↗

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire‐making species, but ‘natural’ (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human‐set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ‘natural’ background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke‐related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas‐induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre‐human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.

Journal of Biogeography↗

An evaluation of the science needs to inform decisions on Outer Continental Shelf energy development in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Alaska

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to conduct an initial, independent evaluation of the science needs that would inform the Administration's consideration of the right places and the right ways in which to develop oil and gas resources in the Arctic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), particularly focused on the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Oil and gas potential is significant in Arctic Alaska. Beyond petroleum potential, this region supports unique fish and wildlife resources and ecosystems, and indigenous people who rely on these resources for subsistence. This report summarizes key existing scientific information and provides initial guidance of what new and (or) continued research could inform decision making. This report is presented in a series of topical chapters and various appendixes each written by a subset of the USGS OCS Team based on their areas of expertise. Three chapters (Chapters 2, 3, and 4) provide foundational information on geology; ecology and subsistence; and climate settings important to understanding the conditions pertinent to development in the Arctic OCS. These chapters are followed by three chapters that examine the scientific understanding, science gaps, and science sufficiency questions regarding oil-spill risk, response, and impact (Chapter 5), marine mammals and anthropogenic noise (Chapter 6), and cumulative impacts (Chapter 7). Lessons learned from the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill are included to identify valuable "pre-positioned" science and scientific approaches to improved response and reduced uncertainty in damage assessment and restoration efforts (appendix D). An appendix on Structured Decision Making (appendix C) is included to illustrate the value of such tools that go beyond, but incorporate, science in looking at what can/should be done about policy and implementation of Arctic development. The report provides a series of findings and recommendations for consideration developed during the independent examination of science gaps and sufficiency. These recommendations are important for understanding what the USGS discovered in the course of this study and to help inform and improve decision making.

Circular↗

Desert winds: Monitoring wind-related surface processes in Arizona, New Mexico, and California

The 18-year Desert Winds Project established instrumented field sites in the five major regions of the North American Desert to obtain meteorological, geological, and vegetation data for natural desert sites affected by wind erosion. The eight chapters in this volume describe the settings and operation of the stations and summarize eolian-related research to date around the stations. The report includes studies of the sand-moving effectiveness of storm winds, wind-erosion susceptibility of different ground-surface types, relations of dust storms to meteorological conditions, mediation of wind erosion by vegetation, remote sensing to detect vegetation changes related to climate change, and comparison of regional dust deposition to that near Owens (dry) Lake.

Arizona, California, New Mexico↗

Environmental factors that influence cyanobacteria and geosmin occurrence in reservoirs

Phytoplankton are small to microscopic, free-floating algae that inhabit the open water of freshwater, estuarine, and saltwater systems. In freshwater lake and reservoirs systems, which are the focus of this chapter, phytoplankton communities commonly consist of assemblages of the major taxonomic groups, including green algae, diatoms, dinoflagellates, and cyanobacteria. Cyanobacteria are a diverse group of single-celled organisms that can exist in a wide range of environments, not just open water, because of their adaptability [1-3]. It is the adaptability of cyanobacteria that enables this group to dominate the phytoplankton community and even form nuisance or harmful blooms under certain environmental conditions [3-6]. In fact, cyanobacteria are predicted to adapt favorably to future climate change in freshwater systems compared to other phytoplankton groups because of their tolerance to rising temperatures, enhanced vertical thermal stratification of aquatic ecosystems, and alterations in seasonal and interannual weather patterns [7, 8]. Understanding those environmental conditions that favor cyanobacterial dominance and bloom formation has been the focus of research throughout the world because of the concomitant production and release of nuisance and toxic cyanobacterial-derived compounds [4-6, 7-10]. However, the complex interaction among the physical, chemical, and biological processes within lakes, reservoirs, and large rivers often makes it difficult to identify primary environmental factors that cause the production and release of these cyanobacterial by-products.

South Carolina↗