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At least 1,405 records · Page 78Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Electrical properties of polycrystalline methane hydrate

Electromagnetic (EM) remote-sensing techniques are demonstrated to be sensitive to gas hydrate concentration and distribution and complement other resource assessment techniques, particularly seismic methods. To fully utilize EM results requires knowledge of the electrical properties of individual phases and mixing relations, yet little is known about the electrical properties of gas hydrates. We developed a pressure cell to synthesize gas hydrate while simultaneously measuring in situ frequency-dependent electrical conductivity (σ). Synthesis of methane (CH 4 ) hydrate was verified by thermal monitoring and by post run cryogenic scanning electron microscope imaging. Impedance spectra (20 Hz to 2 MHz) were collected before and after synthesis of polycrystalline CH 4 hydrate from polycrystalline ice and used to calculate σ. We determined the σ of CH 4 hydrate to be 5 × 10 −5 S/m at 0°C with activation energy (E a ) of 30.6 kJ/mol (−15 to 15°C). After dissociation back into ice, σ measurements of samples increased by a factor of ~4 and E a increased by ~50%, similar to the starting ice samples.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2011

Didymosphenia geminata: Algal blooms in oligotrophic streams and rivers

In recent decades, the diatom Didymosphenia geminata has emerged as nuisance species in river systems around the world. This periphytic alga forms large "blooms" in temperate streams, presenting a counterintuitive result: the blooms occur primarily in oligotrophic streams and rivers, where phosphorus (P) availability typically limits primary production. The goal of this study is to examine how high algal biomass is formed under low P conditions. We reveal a biogeochemical process by which D. geminata mats concentrate P from flowing waters. First, the mucopolysaccaride stalks of D. geminata adsorb both iron (Fe) and P. Second, enzymatic and bacterial processes interact with Fe to increase the biological availability of P. We propose that a positive feedback between total stalk biomass and high growth rate is created, which results in abundant P for cell division. The affinity of stalks for Fe in association with iron-phosphorus biogeochemistry suggest a resolution to the paradox of algal blooms in oliogotrophic streams and rivers. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2011

Independent effects of temperature and precipitation on modeled runoff in the conterminous United States

A water‐balance model is used to simulate time series of water‐year runoff for 4 km × 4 km grid cells for the conterminous United States during the 1900–2008 period. Model outputs are used to examine the separate effects of precipitation and temperature on runoff variability. Overall, water‐year runoff has increased in the conterminous United States and precipitation has accounted for almost all of the variability in water‐year runoff during the past century. In contrast, temperature effects on runoff have been small for most locations in the United States even during periods when temperatures for most of the United States increased significantly.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2019

POLARIS properties: 30-meter probabilistic maps of soil properties over the contiguous United States

Soils play a critical role in the cycling of water, energy, and carbon in the Earth system. Until recently, due primarily to a lack of soil property maps of a sufficiently high‐quality and spatial detail, a minor emphasis has been placed on providing high‐resolution measured soil parameter estimates for land surface models and hydrologic models. This study introduces Probabilistic Remapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) soil properties—a database of 30‐m probabilistic soil property maps over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The mapped variables over CONUS include soil texture, organic matter, pH, saturated hydraulic conductivity, Brooks‐Corey and Van Genuchten water retention curve parameters, bulk density, and saturated water content. POLARIS soil properties was assembled by (1) depth harmonizing and aggregating the pedons in the National Cooperative Soil Survey Soil Characterization Database and the components in Soil Survey Geographic Database into a database of 21,481 different soil series, each soil series having its own vertical profiles of different soil properties, (2) pruning the original POLARIS soil series maps using conventional soil maps to improve soil series prediction accuracy, and (3) merging the assembled soil series databases with the pruned POLARIS soil series maps to construct the soil property maps over CONUS. POLARIS soil properties includes 100‐bin histograms for each layer and variable per grid cell and a series of summary statistics at 30‐, 300‐, and 3,000‐m spatial resolution. Evaluation of POLARIS soil properties using in situ measurements shows an average R2 of 0.41, normalized root‐mean‐square error of 12%, and a normalized mean absolute error of 8.8%.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2019

Hillslope hydrology in global change research and earth system modeling

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope‐scale terrain structures that fundamentally organize water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes at subgrid scales. Here we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists, and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESM grid‐level water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. In contrast to the one‐dimensional (1‐D), 2‐ to 3‐m deep, and free‐draining soil hydrology in most ESM land models, we hypothesize that 3‐D, lateral ridge‐to‐valley flow through shallow and deep paths and insolation contrasts between sunny and shady slopes are the top two globally quantifiable organizers of water and energy (and vegetation) within an ESM grid cell. We hypothesize that these two processes are likely to impact ESM predictions where (and when) water and/or energy are limiting. We further hypothesize that, if implemented in ESM land models, these processes will increase simulated continental water storage and residence time, buffering terrestrial ecosystems against seasonal and interannual droughts. We explore efficient ways to capture these mechanisms in ESMs and identify critical knowledge gaps preventing us from scaling up hillslope to global processes. One such gap is our extremely limited knowledge of the subsurface, where water is stored (supporting vegetation) and released to stream baseflow (supporting aquatic ecosystems). We conclude with a set of organizing hypotheses and a call for global syntheses activities and model experiments to assess the impact of hillslope hydrology on global change predictions.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2019

Application of a regional climate model to assess changes in the climatology of the Eastern US and Cuba associated with historic landcover change

We examine the annual, seasonal, monthly, and diurnal climate responses to the land use change (LUC) in eastern United States and Cuba during four epochs (1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992) with ensemble simulations conducted with the RegCM4 regional climate model that includes the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS1e) surface physics package (Dickinson et al., 1993). We derived the land use (LU) data sets by harmonizing a previous reconstruction (Steyaert & Knox, 2008) with updated observations and modeled potential vegetation. The eight‐member ensembles for each epoch were driven with randomly perturbed 1990–2002 atmospheric boundary conditions derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction global reanalysis. LUC induces statistically significant climate responses across all epochs; the largest changes occur between 1850 and 1920 with the widespread conversion of forests in the United States and forests, grassland, and woody wetlands in Cuba to agriculture. The atmospheric feedback from the aggregated grid‐cell responses attributed to physical and biophysical parameters in BATS1e alters the circulation in the lower atmosphere, thereby propagating the LUC regionally. Depending on the season and location, the altered circulation reinforces, attenuates, or has little effect on surface responses. Relative to pre‐settlement (1650), the 1992 LU produces colder mean annual air temperature (−0.09 ± 0.16 °C) and increased precipitation (0.08 ± 0.09 mm day −1 ) over the United States, warmer (0.08 °C) and wetter (0.03 mm day −1 ) conditions over Florida, and warming (0.32 °C) and drying (−0.03 mm day −1 ) over Cuba, indicating that LUC has played a varying role in climate change over the region.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Numerical analysis of the effect of subgrid variability in a physically based hydrological model on runoff, soil moisture, and slope stability

In coarse resolution hydrological modeling we face the problem of subgrid variability, the effects of which are difficult to express and are often hidden in the parameterization and calibration. We present a numerical experiment with the physically based hydrological model ParFlow‐CLM with which we quantify the effect of subgrid heterogeneities in headwater catchments within the cell size typically used for regional hydrological applications. We simulate homogeneous domains and domains with subgrid heterogeneities in topography or soil thickness for two climates and soil types. The presence of side slope is the main error source, leading to large underestimation of runoff, and marginally also of evapotranspiration. The spatial distribution of soil saturation in the presence of subgrid variability in topography also leads to underestimation of landslide risk. Soil thickness is the second influential subgrid property, affecting soil moisture distribution and surface runoff formation. Results are consistent for the climates and the soil types considered. The topographic wetness index approach is tested as a way to downscale soil moisture simulations within the domain. Although this method is successful in reproducing some spatial variability and patterns, it fails when the coarse grid mean soil saturation is inaccurate or subgrid topography does not represent subsurface flow paths accurately. We conclude that ignoring subgrid variability in topography and soil thickness in coarse‐scale hydrological models may lead locally to underestimation of runoff and slope instability. Users of such models should be aware of these biases and consider ways to include subgrid effects in coarse‐scale hydrological predictions.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2021

Time-fractional flow equations (t-FFEs) to upscale transient groundwater flow characterized by temporally non-darcian flow due to medium heterogeneity

Upscaling groundwater flow is a fundamental challenge in hydrogeology. This study proposed time-fractional flow equations (t-FFEs) for upscaling long-term, transient groundwater flow and propagation of pressure heads in heterogeneous media. Monte Carlo simulations showed that, with increasing variance and correlation of the hydraulic conductivity ( K ), flow dynamics gradually deviated from Darcian flow and exhibit sub-diffusive, time-dependent evolution which can be separated into three major stages. At the early stage, the interconnected high- K zones dominated flow, while at intermediate times, the transverse flow due to mixed high- and low- K zones caused delayed rise of the piezometric head. At late times when flow in the relatively high- K domains reached stability, cells with very low- K continued to block the entry of water and generate “islands” with low piezometric head, significantly extending the temporal evolution of the piezometric head. The elongated water breakthrough curve cannot be quantified by the flow equation with an effective K , the space-fractional flow equation, or the multi-rate mass transfer (MRMT) flow model with a few rates, motivating the development of t-FFEs assuming temporally non-Darcian flow. Model applications showed that both the early and intermediate stages of flow dynamics can be captured by a single-index t-FFE (whose index is the exponent of the power-law probability density function of the random operational time for water parcels), but the overall evolution of flow dynamics, especially the enhanced retention of flow at later times, required a distributed-order t-FFE with variable indexes for different flow phases that can dominate flow dynamics at different stages. Therefore, transient groundwater flow in aquifers with spatially stationary heterogeneity can be temporally non-Darcian and non-stationary, due to the time-sensitive, combined effects of interconnected high- K channels and isolated low- K deposits on flow dynamics (which is the hydrogeological mechanism for the temporally non-Darcian flow and sub-diffusive pressure propagation), whose long-term behavior can be quantified by multi-index stochastic models.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2022

Human-in-the-Loop segmentation of earth surface imagery

Segmentation, or the classification of pixels (grid cells) in imagery, is ubiquitously applied in the natural sciences. Manual methods are often prohibitively time-consuming, especially those images consisting of small objects and/or significant spatial heterogeneity of colors or textures. Labeling complicated regions of transition that in Earth surface imagery are represented by collections of mixed-pixels, -textures, and -spectral signatures, can be especially error-prone because it is difficult to reliably unmix, identify and delineate consistently. However, the success of supervised machine learning (ML) approaches is entirely dependent on good label data. We describe a fast, semi-automated, method for interactive segmentation of N-dimensional (x, y, N) images into two-dimensional (x, y) label images. It uses human-in-the-loop ML to achieve consensus between the labeler and a model in an iterative workflow. The technique is reproducible; the sequence of decisions made by human labeler and ML algorithms can be encoded to file, so the entire process can be played back and new outputs generated with alternative decisions and/or algorithms. We illustrate the scientific potential of segmentation of imagery of diverse settings and image types using six case studies from river, estuarine, and open coast environments. These photographic and non-photographic imagery consist of 1- and 3-bands on regular and irregular grids ranging from centimeters to tens of meters. We demonstrate high levels of agreement in label images generated by several labelers on the same imagery, and make suggestions to achieve consensus and measure uncertainty, ideal for widespread application in training supervised ML for image segmentation.

Earth and Space Science↗
USGS2022

Toward next-generation lava flow forecasting: Development of a fast, physics-based lava propagation model

During effusive volcanic crises, the eruption and propagation of lava flows pose a significant hazard to nearby populations, homes, and infrastructure. Consequently, timely lava flow forecasts are a critical need for volcano observatory and emergency management operations. Previous lava flow modeling tools are typically either too slow to produce timely forecasts, or are fast, but lack critical aspects of lava physics or important forecasting outputs. In particular, the strong thermal stratification present in laminar, high-Prandtl number flows has generally been neglected. Bulk rheological changes have previously been computed from cell-averaged temperatures, assuming that the flow is thermally mixed. Here, we detail the development and initial testing of Lava2d, a new two-dimensional depth-averaged finite volume model of lava flow propagation over natural terrain which accounts for bulk rheological changes due to thermorheological stratification. We use a novel approach to energy conservation based on tracking cooling and solidifying at the flow base and at the moving flow surface, allowing for the estimation of more realistic vertical thermorheological profiles, while maintaining computational efficiency, producing very timely model runs. We validate our approach with three examples: comparison with theoretical propagation of crust-dominated lava flows, comparison with a large-scale molten basalt experiment from the Syracuse University Lava Project, and efficiency testing and comparison with the initial phase of the 1984 Mauna Loa lava flows. Our model is shown to produce rapid, realistic forecasts, making it a good candidate for operationalization in active volcanic regions such as in Hawai'i.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth↗
USGS2023

Dynamics of the wave-driven circulation in the lee of nearshore reefs

Nearshore rocky reefs with scales of order 10–100 m are common along the world's coastline and often shape wave-driven hydrodynamics and shoreline morphology in their lee. The interaction of waves with these reefs generally results in either two or four-cell mean circulation systems (2CC and 4CC, respectively), with diverging flows behind the reefs and at the shoreline in the 2CC case and flows that diverge in the lee and converge at the shoreline in the 4CC case. By applying a phase-resolving wave-flow model to conduct a detailed analysis of mean momentum balances for waves interacting with nearshore reefs, we develop an understanding of the drivers of 2CC and 4CC flow dynamics and how they vary for different reef geometries and wave and water level conditions. The 2CC or 4CC patterns were primarily driven by alongshore pressure gradients toward the exposed (nonreef fronted) or reef-fronted beach. These alongshore pressure gradients were dependent on the cross-shore setup dynamics governed by the balance between pressure (i.e., related to the setup) and radiation stress gradients, and mean bottom stresses exerted on the water column. If shoreline wave setup in the lee of the reef was less than the exposed beach, a 4CC pattern developed with convergent flow at the shoreline in the lee of the reef; otherwise, a 2CC emerged with divergent flow at the shoreline. Across the parameter space investigated, reef roughness, distance to the shoreline, and beach slope were the three parameters most likely to change the flow patterns between 2CC and 4CC.

JGR-Oceans↗
USGS2023

A model integrating satellite-derived shoreline observations for predicting fine-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise across large coastal regions

Satellite-derived shoreline observations combined with dynamic shoreline models enable fine-scale predictions of coastal change across large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we present a satellite-data-assimilated, “littoral-cell”-based, ensemble Kalman-filter shoreline model to predict coastal change and uncertainty due to waves, sea-level rise (SLR), and other natural and anthropogenic processes. We apply the developed ensemble model to the entire California coastline (approximately 1,760 km), much of which is sparsely monitored with traditional survey methods (e.g., Lidar/GPS). Water-level-corrected, satellite-derived shoreline observations (obtained from the CoastSat toolbox) offer a nearly unbiased representation of in situ surveyed shorelines (e.g., mean sea-level elevation contours) at Ocean Beach, San Francisco. We demonstrate that model calibration with satellite observations during a 20-year hindcast period (1995–2015) provides nearly equivalent model forecast accuracy during a validation period (2015–2020) compared to model calibration with monthly in situ observations at Ocean Beach. When comparing model-predicted shoreline positions to satellite-derived observations, the model achieves an accuracy of <10 m RMSE for nearly half of the entire California coastline for the validation period. The calibrated/validated model is then applied for multi-decadal simulations of shoreline change due to projected wave and sea-level conditions, while holding the model parameters fixed. By 2100, the model estimates that 24%–75% of California's beaches may become completely eroded due to SLR scenarios of 1.0–3.0 m, respectively. The satellite-data-assimilated modeling system presented here is generally applicable to a variety of coastal settings around the world owing to the global coverage of satellite imagery.

JGR Earth Surface↗
USGS2024

Parsimonious high-resolution landslide susceptibility modeling at continental scales

Landslide susceptibility maps are fundamental tools for risk reduction, but the coarse resolution of current continental-scale models is insufficient for local application. Complex relations between topographic and environmental attributes characterizing landslide susceptibility at local scales are not transferrable across areas without landslide data. Existing maps with multiple susceptibility classifications under-represent landslide potential in moderate and gently sloping terrain. We leverage an extensive landslide database ( N = 613,724), a high-resolution digital elevation model (10-m), and high-performance computing resources, to develop a new nationwide susceptibility map for the contiguous United States, Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. We calculate four alternative linear and nonlinear thresholds of topographic slope and relief using an objective split-sample calibration. We down-sample our results to a 90-m grid to account for uncertainty in the digital elevation model and landslide position, and evaluate these thresholds' ability to differentiate areas of greater susceptibility. The less conservative nonlinear model optimally balances our priorities of capturing observed landslides (99%) while minimizing area covered by susceptible terrain (43%). Independent evaluation with four statewide landslide inventories ( N = 172,367) reinforces our model selection but highlights spatially variable performance. Therefore, we propose a novel approach to susceptibility classification using the concentration of landslide-prone terrain within each down-sampled grid. While landslides are possible within any cells containing susceptible terrain, those with the highest concentration capture the majority of observed landslides. Our new map characterizes landside susceptibility more consistently than prior models; our transparent classification approach also provides flexibility for accommodating different tolerances in risk reduction measures.

AGU Advances↗
USGS2012

Use of weather types to disaggregate general circulation model predictions

General circulation models (GCMs) simulate climatic conditions with a grid cell resolution on the order of 100,000 km 2 . This resolution is inadequate to assess the effects of climatic change on water resources at a regional scale. A method has been developed that uses weather-type analysis as a tool to spatially disaggregate GCM predictions to make them useful for water resource studies. The method has been applied to the Delaware River basin to predict the effects of doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide on precipitation patterns in the region. An application of the technique to the Delaware River basin indicates that future climatic conditions will show minimal changes in weather-type frequency, implying that air circulation patterns will remain unchanged. Results of this study indicate that changes in regional precipitation patterns under a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will be a result of within-type changes in weather characteristics.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS1997

Land cover mapping, fire regeneration, and scaling studies in the Canadian boreal forest with 1 km AVHRR and Landsat TM data

A multitemporal 1 km advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) land cover analysis approach was used as the basis for regional land cover mapping, fire disturbance-regeneration, and multiresolution land cover scaling studies in the boreal forest ecosystem of central Canada. The land cover classification was developed by using regional field observations from ground and low-level aircraft transits to analyze spectral-temporal clusters that were derived from an unsupervised cluster analysis of monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image composites (April-September 1992). Quantitative areal proportions of the major boreal forest components were determined for a 821 km ?? 619 km region, ranging from the southern grasslands-boreal forest ecotone to the northern boreal transitional forest. The boreal wetlands (mostly lowland black spruce, tamarack, mosses, fens, and bogs) occupied approximately 33% of the region, while lakes accounted for another 13%. Upland mixed coniferous-deciduous forests represented 23% of the ecosystem. A SW-NE productivity gradient across the region is manifested by three levels of tree stand density for both the boreal wetland conifer and the mixed forest classes, which are generally aligned with isopleths of regional growing degree days. Approximately 30% of the region was directly affected by fire disturbance within the preceding 30-35 years, especially in the Canadian Shield Zone where large fire-regeneration patterns contribute to the heterogeneous boreal landscape. Intercomparisons with land cover classifications derived from 30-m Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data provided important insights into the relative accuracy of the 1 km AVHRR land cover classification. Primarily due to the multitemporal NDVI image compositing process, the 1 km AVHRR land cover classes have an effective spatial resolution in the 3-4 km range; therefore fens, bogs, small water bodies, and small patches of dry jack pine cannot be resolved within the wet conifer mosaic. Major differences in the 1-km AVHRR and 30-m Landsat TM-derived land cover classes are most likely due to differences in the spatial resolution of the data sets. In general, the 1 km AVHRR land cover classes are vegetation mosaics consisting of mixed combinations of the Landsat classes. Detailed mapping of the global boreal forest with this approach will benefit from algorithms for cloud screening and to atmospherically correct reflectance data for both aerosol and water vapor effects. We believe that this 1 km AVHRR land cover analysis provides new and useful information for regional water, energy, carbon, and trace gases studies in BOREAS, especially given the significant spatial variability in land cover type and associated biophysical land cover parameters (e.g., albedo, leaf area index, FPAR, and surface roughness). Multiresolution land cover comparisons (30 m, 1 km, and 100 km grid cells) also illustrated how heterogeneous landscape patterns are represented in land cover maps with differing spatial scales and provided insights on the requirements and challenges for parameterizing landscape heterogeneity as part of land surface process research.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS1998

In situ determination of particle friction angles of fluvial gravels

Particle friction angles Φ represent the physical resistance to initial movement of a sediment particle and are therefore useful for relating initiation of motion to particular flows. We determined over 8000 friction angle values at five natural rivers by applying a new method that uses a digital load cell to directly measure the force F d required to pivot or slide a particle out of its natural resting place. Within each site, median Φ values were very similar to previously reported relations, yet different enough between sites that a location-general predictive empirical relation would produce errors in Φ of ±10 degrees for D i / K s > 1. Furthermore, within a D i / K s class at a given site the range in Φ was as large as 80°, much greater than the range of median values between classes for natural sediment mixtures. Using estimates of τ c * from extensive bed load measurements made by Andrews and Erman [1986] at Sagehen Creek and the in situ Φ measurements made in this study together with a theoretical model developed by Wiberg and Smith [1987], we show that Φ measurements made with this new method can be used to accurately predict τ c * for natural, water-worked sediments. Additionally, these results confirm that a Φ value ≪Φ 50 is more appropriate for predicting τ c * of a given size class.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2012

Magnetic effects of maghemitization of oceanic crust

Both theoretical considerations and available experimental results indicate that magnetic effects of maghemitization are strongly dependent on the grain size of the originally unoxidized titanomagnetite. Maghemitization of single‐domain titanomagnetite results in a decrease in coercivity, an increase in susceptibility, and a large decrease in Q ratio. Maghemitization of multidomain titanomagnetite results in an increase in coercivity, a decrease in susceptibility, and no large changes in Q ratio. Single‐domain titanomagnetite is probably resistant to the development of a chemical remanent magnetization (CRM), whereas multidomain titanomagnetite can acquire a CRM during maghemitization. The behavior of pseudo‐single‐domain titanomagnetite, which is the main carrier of remanence in submarine extrusive rocks, is investigated by comparing the magnetic properties of the French‐American Mid‐Ocean Undersea Study (FAMOUS) (less than 0.1 m.y. old) and the Leg 37 (3.5 m.y. old) pillow basalts recovered from the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge near 37°N. Combining electron microprobe analyses, Curie temperature measurements, and cell edge determinations, we find that the FAMOUS rocks are already oxidized ( z = 0.38), possibly as a result of some high‐temperature maghemitization during cooling of the magma. Comparison with the more highly oxidized ( z = 0.7) Leg 37 pillow basalts indicates that low‐temperature maghemitization of such rocks does not result in appreciable changes of coercivity and susceptibility, although the Q ratio does decrease and CRM seems to be acquired. Such a CRM could account for the anomalously low magnetic inclinations observed at most of the Leg 37 sites.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2012

The use of MAGSAT data to determine secular variation

A combined spatial and secular variation model of the geomagnetic field, labeled M061581, is derived from a selection of Magsat data. Secular variation (SV) data computed from linear fits to midnight hourly values from 19 magnetic observatories were also included in the analysis but were seen to have little effect on the model. The SV patterns from this new model are compared with those from the 1980 IGRF and with those for 1970 computed by the DGRF and with the 1960 patterns computed using the GSFC(12/66) model. Most of the features of the M061581 are identical in location and level with those of the 1980 IGRF. Together they confirm that the reversals in sign of field change seen over Asia and North America between 1965 and 1975 are reverting to the pre-1965 states. The M061581 model gives −32 nT/yr for the dipole decay rate, larger than the 70% increase already reported since 1965. This abnormally high value is interpreted as being a defect of the model because it appears to result from a much larger (−100 nT/yr) drop in field over the polar regions not indicated by the 1980 IGRF. This north polar decrease is shown to be of external origin as the result of a combination of the seasonal effect of the north polar ionospheric (counterclockwise) afternoon Sq p cell increasing in intensity from the beginning (November 1979) to the end (June 1980) of the Magsat data collection period, coupled with an enhancement of its effect as the orbit lowered from the 350– 550 km initial altitudes to near 200 km just prior to burnup. This experiment indicates that secular variation can be obtained from satellite data for intervals of less than a full year if corrections can be made for seasonal effects and that ‘annual snapshots’ of the field by a satellite would allow easy and accurate models of secular change without the use of any surface data.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗