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USGS2014

A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. More accurate seasonal agricultural drought forecasts for this region can inform better water and agricultural management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts and floods. Here we describe the development and implementation of a seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for East Africa (EA) that provides decision support for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's science team. We evaluate this forecast system for a region of equatorial EA (2° S to 8° N, and 36° to 46° E) for the March-April-May growing season. This domain encompasses one of the most food insecure, climatically variable and socio-economically vulnerable regions in EA, and potentially the world: this region has experienced famine as recently as 2011. To assess the agricultural outlook for the upcoming season our forecast system simulates soil moisture (SM) scenarios using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model forced with climate scenarios for the upcoming season. First, to show that the VIC model is appropriate for this application we forced the model with high quality atmospheric observations and found that the resulting SM values were consistent with the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO's) Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), an index used by FEWS NET to estimate crop yields. Next we tested our forecasting system with hindcast runs (1993–2012). We found that initializing SM forecasts with start-of-season (5 March) SM conditions resulted in useful SM forecast skill (> 0.5 correlation) at 1-month, and in some cases at 3 month lead times. Similarly, when the forecast was initialized with mid-season (i.e. 5 April) SM conditions the skill until the end-of-season improved. This shows that early-season rainfall is critical for end-of-season outcomes. Finally we show that, in terms of forecasting spatial patterns of SM anomalies, the skill of this agricultural drought forecast system is generally greater (> 0.8 correlation) during drought years. This means that this system might be particularity useful for identifying the events that present the greatest risk to the region.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2000

Acoustic properties of a crack containing magmatic or hydrothermal fluids

We estimate the acoustic properties of a crack containing magmatic or hydrothermal fluids to quantify the source properties of long-period (LP) events observed in volcanic areas assuming that a crack-like structure is the source of LP events. The tails of synthetic waveforms obtained from a model of a fluid-driven crack are analyzed by the Sompi method to determine the complex frequencies of one of the modes of crack resonance over a wide range of the model parameters α/ a and ρ f /ρ s , where αis the P wave velocity of the rock matrix, a is the sound speed of the fluid, and ρ f and p s are the densities of the fluid and rock matrix, respectively. The quality factor due to radiation loss ( Q r ) for the selected mode almost monotonically increases with increasing α/ a , while the dimensionless frequency ( v ) of the mode decreases with increasing α/ a and ρ f /ρ s . These results are used to estimate Q and v for a crack containing various types of fluids (gas-gas mixtures, liquid-gas mixtures, and dusty and misty gases) for values of a , ρ f , and quality factor due to intrinsic losses ( Q i ) appropriate for these types of fluids, in which Q is given by Q −l = Q r −l + Q i −1 . For a crack containing such fluids, we obtain Q ranging from almost unity to several hundred, which consistently explains the wide variety of quality factors measured in LP events observed at various volcanoes. We underscore the importance of dusty and misty gases containing small-size particles with radii around 1 μm to explain long-lasting oscillations with Q significantly larger than 100. Our results may provide a basis for the interpretation of spatial and temporal variations in the observed complex frequencies of LP events in terms of fluid compositions beneath volcanoes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2020

Water tracks enhance water flow above permafrost in upland Arctic Alaska hillslopes

Upland permafrost regions occupy approximately one third of the Arctic landscape. In upland regions, hydrologic fluxes are influenced by water tracks, curvilinear features on hillslopes that preferentially fill with and route water in response to snowmelt and rainfall when the soil above continuous permafrost thaws in the summer. As continued warming of the Arctic may alter hydrologic cycling leading to increased frequency of extreme hydrologic events like drought and flooding as well as modification of biogeochemical cycling, it is imperative to untangle the interplay between precipitation, runoff, and subsurface flow as water is routed from upland Arctic regions to the Arctic Ocean. This study quantifies how ground surface temperatures affect groundwater discharge from hillslopes with water tracks in the upland Arctic by employing a three-dimensional, physically based subsurface flow model with variable saturation and freeze and thaw capabilities that is calibrated to field measurements from the Upper Kuparuk River watershed on the North Slope of Alaska, USA. Model analysis indicates that higher ground surface temperatures along water track hillslopes promote increases in groundwater discharge where water tracks act as conduits for large recharge events and continue to discharge groundwater into the autumn after the adjacent hillslope has frozen. Simulating the conditions that distinguish water tracks from their hillslope watersheds changes subsurface water storage and ground thermal responses but does not alter the total magnitude of groundwater discharge outside of parameter uncertainty. These findings suggest that water tracks play a complex and critical role in hydrologic cycles of the upland Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

The birth of a Hawaiian fissure eruption

Most basaltic explosive eruptions intensify abruptly, allowing little time to document processes at the start of eruption. One opportunity came with the initiation of activity from fissure 8 (F8) during the 2018 eruption on the lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea, Hawaii. F8 erupted in four episodes. We recorded 28 min of high‐definition video during a 51‐min period, capturing the onset of the second episode on 5 May. From the videos, we were able to analyze the following in‐flight parameters: frequency and duration of explosions; ejecta heights; pyroclast exit velocities; in‐flight total mass and estimated mass eruption rates; and the in‐flight total grain size distributions. The videos record a transition from initial pulsating outgassing, via spaced, but increasingly rapid, discrete explosions, to quasisustained, unsteady fountaining. This transition accompanied waxing intensity (mass flux) of the F8 eruption. We infer that all activity was driven by a combination of the ascent of a coupled mixture of small bubbles and melt, and the buoyant rise of decoupled gas slugs and/or pockets. The balance between these two types of concurrent flow determined the exact form of the eruptive activity at any point in time, and changes to their relative contributions drove the transition we observed at early F8. Qualitative observations of other Hawaiian fountains at Kīlauea suggest that this physical model may apply more generally. This study demonstrates the value of in‐flight parameters derived from high‐resolution videos, which offer a rapid and highly time‐sensitive alternative to measurements based on sampling of deposits posteruption.

Island of Hawai'i↗

USGS2022

River floodplain abandonment and channel deepening coincide with the onset of clear-cut logging in a coastal California redwood forest

Changes in both land use and climate can alter the balance of transport capacity and sediment supply in rivers. Hence, the primary driver of recent incision or aggradation in alluvial channels is often unclear. The San Lorenzo River on the central coast of California is one location where both climate and land use—specifically, clear-cut forestry of coastal redwoods—could explain recent vertical incision and floodplain abandonment. At our field site on the San Lorenzo, we estimate the magnitude of recent incision using both the ratio of bankfull to critical Shields numbers ( τ bf * / τ c * "> 𝜏 ∗ 𝑏𝑓 / 𝜏 ∗ 𝑐 ) and the geomorphically effective discharge, calculated from historical gauge data. The Shields number ratio suggests that the normalized bankfull stress of the San Lorenzo River is in the upper 1–2% of West Coast rivers, and the effective discharge corresponds to flow depths ~2–4 m below current bankfull conditions. Radiocarbon ages from detrital charcoal in floodplain sediment reveal active floodplain deposition during the 1600s and possibly into the 1800s, constraining the timing of incision to the last few centuries. Multiple hanging tributaries above the mainstem San Lorenzo River, along with patterns in vegetation on terrace surfaces, corroborate our estimates of the magnitude and timing of incision. Taken together, our findings suggest that floodplain abandonment in this reach was mainly due to methods employed during logging that increased shear stress on the channel bed and reduced sediment storage capacity. We suggest that direct channel modifications in rivers can counterbalance increases in sediment delivery due to clear-cutting, resulting in channel incision rather than aggradation. Today, a young, lower surface appears to be forming adjacent to the San Lorenzo River, which we interpret as an incipient floodplain that is in equilibrium with modern sediment supply and transport capacity.

California↗

USGS2024

Elastic stress coupling between supraglacial lakes

Supraglacial lakes have been observed to drain within hours of each other, leading to the hypothesis that stress transmission following one drainage may be sufficient to induce hydro-fracture-driven drainages of other nearby lakes. However, available observations characterizing drainage-induced stress perturbations have been insufficient to evaluate this hypothesis. Here, we use ice-sheet surface-displacement observations from a dense global positioning system array deployed in the Greenland Ice Sheet ablation zone to investigate elastic stress transmission between three neighboring supraglacial lake basins. We find that drainage of a central lake can place neighboring basins in either tensional or compressional stress relative to their hydro-fracture scarp orientations, either promoting or inhibiting hydro-fracture initiation beneath those lakes. For two lakes located within our array that drain close in time, we identify tensional surface stresses caused by ice-sheet uplift due to basal-cavity opening as the physical explanation for these lakes' temporally clustered hydro-fracture-driven drainages and frequent triggering behavior. However, lake-drainage-induced stresses in the up-flowline direction remain low beyond the margins of the drained lakes. This short stress-coupling length scale is consistent with idealized lake-drainage scenarios for a range of lake volumes and ice-sheet thicknesses. Thus, on elastic timescales, our observations and idealized-model results support a stress-transmission hypothesis for inducing hydro-fracture-driven drainage of lakes located within the region of basal cavity opening produced by the initial drainage, but refute this hypothesis for distal lakes.

JGR Earth Surface↗

USGS2012

The Steens Mountain (Oregon) geomagnetic polarity transition: 1. Directional history, duration of episodes, and rock magnetism

The thick sequence of Miocene lava flows exposed on Steens Mountain in southeastern Oregon is well known for containing a detailed record of a reversed‐to‐normal geomagnetic polarity transition. Paleomagnetic samples were obtained from the sequence for a combined study of the directional and intensity variations recorded; the paleointensity study is reported in a companion paper. This effort has resulted in the first detailed history of total geomagnetic field behavior during a reversal of polarity. A comparison of the directional variation history of the reversed and normal polarity intervals on either side of the transition with the Holocene record has allowed an estimate of the duration of these periods to be made. These time estimates were then used to calculate accumulation rates for the volcanic sequence and thereby provide a means for estimating time periods within the transition itself. The polarity transition was found to consist of two phases, each with quite different characteristics. At the onset of the first phase, a one‐third decrease in magnetic field intensity may have preceded the first intermediate field directions by about 600 years. Changes in field direction were confined near the local north‐south vertical plane when the actual reversal in direction occurred and normal polarity directions may have been attained within 550±150 years. The end of the first phase of the transition was marked by a brief (possibly 100–300 years) period with normal polarity and a pretransitional intensity which suggests a quasi‐normal dipole field structure existed during this interval. The second phase of the transition was characterized by a return to very low field intensities with the changes in direction describing a long counterclockwise loop in contrast to the earlier narrowly constrained changes. This second phase lasted 2900±300 years, and both normal directions and intensities were recovered at the same time. Both directional and intensity data document very erratic geomagnetic field behavior during the polarity transition. Changes in magnetic field direction were variable and occurred either (1) in a regular, progressive manner, (2) with sudden, extremely rapid angular changes (58°±21°/year), or (3) with little or no movement for periods of the order of 600±200 years. Changes in magnetic intensity occurred in a like manner and were sometimes correlated with changes in direction, but during other periods both directional and intensity changes occurred independently. Directional changes following the polarity transition occurred in a seemingly normal manner, although intensity fluctuations attest to some instability of the newly reestablished dipole.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Reservoir processes and fluid origins in the Baca geothermal system, Valles Caldera, New Mexico

At the Baca geothermal field in the Valles caldera, New Mexico, 19 deep wells were drilled in an attempt to develop a 50-MW e (megawatts electric) power plant. The chemical and isotopic compositions of steam and water samples have been used to indicate uniquely the origin of reservoir fluids and natural reservoir processes. Two distinct reservoir fluids exist at Baca. These fluids originate from the same deep, high-temperature (335°C), saline (2500 mg/kg Cl) parent water but have had different histories during upflow. One fluid (from wells 4 and 13) is isotopically light, high in radiogenic noble gases, CO 2 and HCO 3 , and low in Ca. It has a temperature of 290°–295°C and a reservoir chloride near 1900 mg/kg. This fluid resulted from rapid upward flow through 1.1- to 1.4-m.y.-old Bandelier Tuff reservoir rocks after long residence in pre-Bandelier (>7 m.y.) sediments and Precambrian basement rocks and 25% dilution with high-altitude cold groundwater from Redondo Peak. The other water (from wells 15, 19, and 24) moved slowly through the Bandelier Tuff and cooled conductively (with minor steam loss for well 19) from 335°C to 280°–260°C. Apparently, short residence in old basement rocks has left this water with low radiogenic gases. Conductive cooling without mixing has kept the original chloride and relatively heavy isotope composition of the deep water. The recharge to the deep parent water is not well understood but may be from lower elevation precipitation outside the Valles caldera area. Gases are in equilibrium in all-liquid reservoir fluids at near reservoir temperatures, and the concentrations of atmospheric gases are similar to those of air-saturated water, indicating little boiling and steam loss. All water, solutes, and gases in the reservoir fluids originate from air-saturated meteoric recharge water, watermineral reactions, and rock leaching, with the possible exception of excess 3He that must have an ultimate mantle source. This gas could originate directly from magma or from leaching of intrusive volcanic rocks beneath the Bandelier.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2023

Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) 6-year summary, Naval Outlying Landing Field, Imperial Beach, southwestern San Diego County, California, 2014–20

Executive Summary From 2014 to 2020, a Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) banding station (station) was operated at the Naval Outlying Landing Field (NOLF), Imperial Beach, in southwestern San Diego County, California. The station was established as part of a long-term monitoring program of Neotropical migratory bird populations on NOLF and helps Naval Base Coronado (NOLF is a component) meet the goals and objectives of the Department of Defense Partners in Flight program and the Birds and Migratory Birds Management Strategies of the Naval Base Coronado Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan. The station was established in 2009 and has been in operation during the spring and summer since 2009 except for 2016 when it was not funded. The station was operated by AMEC Earth and Environmental, Inc., from 2009 to 2011, by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2012 to 2015, the San Diego Natural History Museum in 2017, and the U.S. Geological Survey again from 2018 to 2023. This report synthesizes results from 2014 to 2020. A prior report presents summaries and analyses from 2009 to 2013. The banding station at NOLF was operated according to the standard MAPS protocol with some exceptions. Ten mist nets used to capture birds were erected in fixed locations that remained consistent between and within years, with few minor relocations. Nets were open for 6 hours per day, once every 10 days (a netting period) for 13 netting periods starting April 1 each year. Occasionally, poor weather conditions (for example, rain, wind, or excessive heat) prevented net operation or forced nets to be closed early (or, rarely, late). Nets were checked periodically throughout the day and birds were removed, processed (leg bands affixed, measurements recorded), and released. From 2014 to 2020, we had 3,543 captures (including initial captures and recaptures) of a maximum of 3,264 year-unique captures (543±143 year-unique captures [the total number of individual birds captured for the first time each year]). The count of year-unique captures included 2,702 newly banded birds, 258 individuals that were recaptured from previous years, and 304 birds that were released unbanded (218 hummingbirds and 86 other birds that were intentionally released unbanded [game birds, and so forth] or escaped before banding). Individuals of 68 species were captured, 39 of which breed at or in the immediate vicinity of the MAPS banding station. Bird capture rate averaged 43±30 captures per day (corrected to account for variation in effort) for all years (range 7–163 effort-corrected captures per day) and species richness per year averaged 43±4. Bushtit ( Psaltriparus minimus ) was the most abundant species captured, followed by Orange-crowned Warbler ( Leiothlypis celata ), Wilson’s Warbler ( Cardellina pusilla ), House Finch ( Haemorhous mexicanus ), Song Sparrow ( Melospiza melodia ), and Common Yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ). The mean adult sex ratio of all species combined across all years was 54:46 male:female. Adults averaged 73±12 percent of known age captures per year (range 59–94 percent), and juveniles averaged 27±12 percent (range 6–41 percent). Nineteen sensitive species were detected at NOLF (12 captured and 7 observed only). During 2014–20, we captured one State and federally endangered species, Least Bell’s Vireo ( Vireo bellii pusillus ); one federally threatened species, California Gnatcatcher ( Polioptila californica ); one State endangered species, Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii ); and two State species of concern, Yellow-breasted Chat ( Icteria virens ) and Yellow Warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). One additional State species of concern, Northern Harrier ( Circus hudsonius ), was observed at the MAPS banding station but not captured. Peregrine Falcon ( Falco peregrinus ) and White-tailed Kite ( Elanus leucurus ), California State fully protected species, also were observed at the MAPS banding station. Seven federal bird species of conservation concern—Calliope Hummingbird ( Selasphorus calliope ), Rufous Hummingbird ( Selasphorus rufus ), Allen’s Hummingbird ( Selasphorus sasin ), Nuttall’s Woodpecker ( Dryobates nuttallii ), Wrentit ( Chamaea fasciata ), California Thrasher ( Toxostoma redivivum ), and Lawrence’s Goldfinch ( Spinus lawrencei )—also were captured, and four additional federal bird species of conservation concern—Willet ( Tringa semipalmata ), Western Gull ( Larus occidentalis ), California Gull ( Larus californicus ), and Bullock’s Oriole ( Icterus bullockii )—were observed but not captured. Local population trends varied among species and years. From 2012 to 2019, year-round residents Bushtit, Song Sparrow, and Common Yellowthroat significantly decreased, whereas the migrant Least Bell’s Vireo increased. The total number of captures for all species except Least Bell’s Vireo was lowest in 2017, corresponding to the habitat damage caused by Kuroshio shot hole borer beetle ( Euwallacea kuroshio ) in the Tijuana River Valley. Annual productivity and annual adult survival were calculated for seven breeding species based on criteria used by the Institute for Bird Populations (Least Bell’s Vireo, Bushtit, Wrentit, House Wren [ Troglodytes aedon ], Song Sparrow, Orange-crowned Warbler, and Common Yellowthroat). Productivity was highest for most species in 2010 and 2019, years with high precipitation, and lowest in 2014 and 2018, years with low precipitation. Song Sparrow demonstrated the highest productivity among species and Least Bell’s Vireo had the lowest productivity. Annual adult survival was generally high from 2011 to 2012 and from 2018 to 2019. Bushtit had higher annual survival with lower late winter precipitation. Either temperature or precipitation was associated with productivity for all species except Wrentit, and with survival for all species except Least Bell’s Vireo and Common Yellowthroat. For most species, productivity was positively associated with precipitation, and both productivity and survival were negatively associated with temperature. Other studies have found that higher temperatures led to increased predation by snakes and birds and also increased vector-borne disease transmission, such as West Nile virus. Predicted regional increases in temperature over the next 30 years will likely affect the demographics of these species. The Song Sparrow population increased with higher breeding productivity during the previous year, and the Bushtit population increased with higher annual survival and higher productivity during the previous year. Aside from a possible positive association between survivorship and Common Yellowthroat population growth, productivity and survival rates did not appear to influence population change for other focal species.

California↗

USGS1988

The development of the continental margin of eastern North America-conjugate continental margin to West Africa

The continental margin of eastern North America was initiated when West Africa and North America were rifted apart in Triassic-Early Jurassic time. Cooling of the crust and its thinning by rifting and extension caused subsidence. Variation in amounts of subsidence led to formation of five basins. These are listed from south to north. (1) The Blake Plateau Basin, the southernmost, is the widest basin and the one in which the rift-stage basement took longest to form. Carbonate platform deposition was active and persisted until the end of Early Cretaceous. In Late Cretaceous, deposition slowed while subsidence persisted, so a deep water platform was formed. Since the Paleocene the region has undergone erosion. (2) The Carolina Trough is narrow and has relatively thin basement, on the basis of gravity modeling. The two basins with thin basement, the Carolina Trough and Scotian Basin, also show many salt diapirs indicating considerable deposition of salt during their early evolution. In the Carolina Trough, subsidence of a large block of strata above the flowing salt has resulted in a major, active normal fault on the landward side of the basin. (3) The Baltimore Canyon Trough has an extremely thick sedimentary section; synrift and postrift sediments exceed 18 km in thickness. A Jurassic reef is well developed on the basin's seaward side, but post-Jurassic deposition was mainly non-carbonate. In general the conversion from carbonate to terrigenous deposition, characteristics of North American Basins, occurred progressively earlier toward the north. (4) The Georges Bank Basin has a complicated deep structure of sub-basins filled with thick synrift deposits. This may have resulted from some shearing that occurred at this offset of the continental margin. Postrift sediments apparently are thin compared to other basins—only about 8 km. (5) The Scotian Basin, off Canada, contains Jurassic carbonate rocks, sandstone, shale and coal covered by deltaic deposits and Upper Cretaceous deeper water chalk and shale.

Journal of African Earth Sciences↗

USGS1983

Helium isotopic variations in volcanic rocks from Loihi Seamount and the Island of Hawaii

Helium isotopic ratios ranging from 20 to 32 times the atmospheric 3He 4He(RA) have been observed in a suite of 15 basaltic glasses from the Loihi Seamount. These ratios, which are up to four times higher than those of MORB glasses and more than twice those of nearby Kilauea, are strongly suggestive of a primitive source of volatiles supplying this volcanism. The Loihi glasses measured span a broad compositional range, and the 3He/4He ratios were found to be generally lower for the alkali basalts than for the tholeiites. The component with a lower 3He 4He ratio appears to be associated with olivine xenocrysts, within which fluid inclusions are probably the carrier of contaminant helium. One Loihi sample has a much lower isotopic ratio (<5 RA), but a combination of low He concentration, high vesicularity, and presence of cracks lined with clay minerals suggests that the low ratio is due to gas loss and contamination by atmospheric helium. Crushing and melting experiments show that for modest vesicularities (<5% by volume) the Loihi glasses obey a MORB-type partitioning trend, but at higher vesicularities the data show considerably more scatter due to volatile mobilization. The high vesicularities, low extrusion pressure and generally low helium concentrations are consistent with a considerable degree of degassing. Analyses of dunites, plus a correlation between total helium concentrations with xenocryst abundances also suggest that xenocrysts are a significant carrier of contaminating (low 3He 4He) helium. 3He 4He ratios from samples of other Hawaiian volcanoes (Kilauea, Mauna Loa, Hualalai, and Mauna Kea) show a smooth decrease in 3He 4He with increasing volcano age and volume. We interpret this to be a synoptic picture of the time evolution of a hot-spot diapir: the earliest stage is characterized by primitive (> 30 RA) helium with some (variable) component of lithospheric contamination added during "breakthrough", while the later stages are characterized by a relaxation toward lithospheric 3He 4He ratios (??? 8 RA) due to isolation of the diapir from the mantle below (as the plate moves on), and subsequent mining of the inherited helium and contamination from the surrounding lithosphere. The abrupt contrast in 3He 4He ratios between Kilauea and Loihi, despite their close proximity, is indicative of the small lateral extent of the plume. ?? 1983.

Hawaii↗

USGS2012

The competition between thermal contraction and differentiation in the stress history of the Moon

The scarcity of both extension and compression features on the Moon strongly constrains the history of the lunar radius—to variations of less than ±1 km over the past 3.8 Gyr. This limit has traditionally been interpreted as requiring a delicate balance between thermal contraction of the near‐surface and expansion of a substantial cold interior region. Recent theories of lunar origin (e.g., giant impact), in contrast, favor a “hot” initial state. We propose that a reconciliation may be possible by taking account of the volume change Δ V / V | d due to differentiation. We calculate STP densities based on simplified normative mineralogies for a suite of estimates of the bulk lunar composition, of primary lunar basalt, and of the residuum left when the maximum amount of the latter is extracted from the former. Typically Δ V / V | d ≃ 2 to 5%—an expansion equivalent to heating by ∼10 3 K. Provided the timing of differentiation is correct, one might offset the cooling of a magma ocean as much as 630 km deep by differentiation of the remainder of the Moon (which need not start much below the solidus temperature). A large but not impossible amount of gabbroic melt production is implied: ∼100 times the volume of mare basalts known to have been extruded. We do not address the detailed genetic relationship of this melt to the basalts observed on the lunar surface but point out that it need not have reached the surface directly or even have entered the crust in order for the expansion to have occurred. To assess the timing of melt formation, we investigate a simple conductive lunar thermal model which takes account of both Δ V / V | d and thermal contraction. Our initial state is characterized by a central temperature T c and a depth Z 0 above which the material (derived from the magma ocean) is already at the solidus and is not suceptible to volume changes upon further differentiation. We find a range of models satisfying the limits on radius increase and decrease. The hottest has T c = 1210 K, Z 0 = 400 km; without Δ V / V | d , we would need a larger or colder (or both) core, e.g., T c ≲ 700 K for Z 0 = 200–400 km, in agreement with previous investigators. Our modeling thus lends credence to the idea that the Moon could have been initially ≳50% molten (with the remainder relatively close to the solidus) and yet experienced little volume change over the last 3.8 Gyr.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2004

Assessing the record and causes of Late Triassic extinctions

Accelerated biotic turnover during the Late Triassic has led to the perception of an end-Triassic mass extinction event, now regarded as one of the "big five" extinctions. Close examination of the fossil record reveals that many groups thought to be affected severely by this event, such as ammonoids, bivalves and conodonts, instead were in decline throughout the Late Triassic, and that other groups were relatively unaffected or subject to only regional effects. Explanations for the biotic turnover have included both gradualistic and catastrophic mechanisms. Regression during the Rhaetian, with consequent habitat loss, is compatible with the disappearance of some marine faunal groups, but may be regional, not global in scale, and cannot explain apparent synchronous decline in the terrestrial realm. Gradual, widespread aridification of the Pangaean supercontinent could explain a decline in terrestrial diversity during the Late Triassic. Although evidence for an impact precisely at the boundary is lacking, the presence of impact structures with Late Triassic ages suggests the possibility of bolide impact-induced environmental degradation prior to the end-Triassic. Widespread eruptions of flood basalts of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) were synchronous with or slightly postdate the system boundary; emissions of CO2 and SO2 during these eruptions were substantial, but the contradictory evidence for the environmental effects of outgassing of these lavas remains to be resolved. A substantial excursion in the marine carbon-isotope record of both carbonate and organic matter suggests a significant disturbance of the global carbon cycle at the system boundary. Release of methane hydrates from seafloor sediments is a possible cause for this isotope excursion, although the triggering mechanism and climatic effects of such a release remain uncertain. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2011

Thermal modelling of stepwise anatexis in a thrust-thickened sialic crust

One-dimensional modelling of the thermal history of a sialic crust thickened by multiple overstack thrusting of upper crustal material shows that anatexis is likely. both the uplift rate and the length of the incubation period between end of tectonism and start of uplift are important controls on the amount and temperature of the melt. Heat of fusion does not significantly affect the long-term thermal structure of the crust if the melt is not extracted because only a small fraction of conductive heat is converted to latent heat, though short-term thermal effects of latent heat can be locally important. Model results show that commonly <15% of mantle heat flux is converted to latent heat; even during peak melting in the most productive models, less than half of incremental mantle flux is converted. The results have obvious implications on the acceptability of proposed heat sources for crustal anatexis. Fusion could retard crustal temperature rise by nearly 100??C, but the system would recover except for situations of very rapid uplift. Understanding of the thermal evolution of a burial-uplift system requires knowledge not only of the timing of anatexis but of the pooling and movement of the magma, as well as the duration and nature of the incubation period; we are poorly equipped to measure these events. The model predicts that the characteristic time for anatexis is a thickened sialic crust is several tens of millions of years, comparable to the time lapse between orogenies; in making geological interpretations of magmatism, this time lag must be considered. -Author

Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, Ea↗

USGS2009

On near-source earthquake triggering

[1] When one earthquake triggers others nearby, what connects them? Two processes are observed: static stress change from fault offset and dynamic stress changes from passing seismic waves. In the near-source region ( r ≤ 50 km for M ∼ 5 sources) both processes may be operating, and since both mechanisms are expected to raise earthquake rates, it is difficult to isolate them. We thus compare explosions with earthquakes because only earthquakes cause significant static stress changes. We find that large explosions at the Nevada Test Site do not trigger earthquakes at rates comparable to similar magnitude earthquakes. Surface waves are associated with regional and long-range dynamic triggering, but we note that surface waves with low enough frequency to penetrate to depths where most aftershocks of the 1992 M = 5.7 Little Skull Mountain main shock occurred (∼12 km) would not have developed significant amplitude within a 50-km radius. We therefore focus on the best candidate phases to cause local dynamic triggering, direct waves that pass through observed near-source aftershock clusters. We examine these phases, which arrived at the nearest (200–270 km) broadband station before the surface wave train and could thus be isolated for study. Direct comparison of spectral amplitudes of presurface wave arrivals shows that M ∼ 5 explosions and earthquakes deliver the same peak dynamic stresses into the near-source crust. We conclude that a static stress change model can readily explain observed aftershock patterns, whereas it is difficult to attribute near-source triggering to a dynamic process because of the dearth of aftershocks near large explosions.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1985

Evaluating earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles region— An earth-science perspective

Potentially destructive earthquakes are inevitable in the Los Angeles region of California, but hazards prediction can provide a basis for reducing damage and loss. This volume identifies the principal geologically controlled earthquake hazards of the region (surface faulting, strong shaking, ground failure, and tsunamis), summarizes methods for characterizing their extent and severity, and suggests opportunities for their reduction. Two systems of active faults generate earthquakes in the Los Angeles region: northwest-trending, chiefly horizontal-slip faults, such as the San Andreas, and west-trending, chiefly vertical-slip faults, such as those of the Transverse Ranges. Faults in these two systems have produced more than 40 damaging earthquakes since 1800. Ninety-five faults have slipped in late Quaternary time (approximately the past 750,000 yr) and are judged capable of generating future moderate to large earthquakes and displacing the ground surface. Average rates of late Quaternary slip or separation along these faults provide an index of their relative activity. The San Andreas and San Jacinto faults have slip rates measured in tens of millimeters per year, but most other faults have rates of about 1 mm/yr or less. Intermediate rates of as much as 6 mm/yr characterize a belt of Transverse Ranges faults that extends from near Santa Barbara to near San Bernardino. The dimensions of late Quaternary faults provide a basis for estimating the maximum sizes of likely future earthquakes in the Los Angeles region: moment magnitude .(M) 8 for the San Andreas, M 7 for the other northwest-trending elements of that fault system, and M 7.5 for the Transverse Ranges faults. Geologic and seismologic evidence along these faults, however, suggests that, for planning and designing noncritical facilities, appropriate sizes would be M 8 for the San Andreas, M 7 for the San Jacinto, M 6.5 for other northwest-trending faults, and M 6.5 to 7 for the Transverse Ranges faults. The geologic and seismologic record indicates that parts of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults have generated major earthquakes having recurrence intervals of several tens to a few hundred years. In contrast, the geologic evidence at points along other active faults suggests recurrence intervals measured in many hundreds to several thousands of years. The distribution and character of late Quaternary surface faulting permit estimation of the likely location, style, and amount of future surface displacements. An extensive body of geologic and geotechnical information is used to evaluate areal differences in future levels of shaking. Bedrock and alluvial deposits are differentiated according to the physical properties that control shaking response; maps of these properties are prepared by analyzing existing geologic and soils maps, the geomorphology of surficial units, and. geotechnical data obtained from boreholes. The shear-wave velocities of near-surface geologic units must be estimated for some methods of evaluating shaking potential. Regional-scale maps of highly generalized shearwave velocity groups, based on the age and texture of exposed geologic units and on a simple two-dimensional model of Quaternary sediment distribution, provide a first approximation of the areal variability in shaking response. More accurate depictions of near-surface shear-wave velocity useful for predicting ground-motion parameters take into account the thickness of the Quaternary deposits, vertical variations in sediment .type, and the correlation of shear-wave velocity with standard penetration resistance of different sediments. A map of the upper Santa Ana River basin showing shear-wave velocities to depths equal to one-quarter wavelength of a 1-s shear wave demonstrates the three-dimensional mapping procedure. Four methods for predicting the distribution and strength of shaking from future earthquakes are presented. These techniques use different measures of strong-motion

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USGS2019

Slow-growing and extended-duration seismicity swarms: Reactivating joints or foliations in the Cahuilla Valley Pluton, Central Peninsular Ranges, Southern California

Three prolific earthquake swarms and numerous smaller ones have occurred since 1980 in the Mesozoic igneous plutonic rocks of the Perris block of the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California. The major swarms occurred in 1980–1981, 1983–1984, and 2016–2018, with the latest swarm still ongoing. These swarms have no clear mainshock, with the largest events of M L 3.6, M L 3.7, and M w 4.4. Each successive swarm had larger cumulative seismic moment release with about 314 and 411 events of M ≥ 1.5, while the third swarm has produced about 451 events of M ≥ 1.5 (as of September 2018). The concurrent strike‐slip faulting occurred on north to northwest striking planes but with no orthogonal northeast trending seismicity alignments. These shallow swarms are probably driven by intrablock Pacific‐North America plate boundary stress loading of the two bounding major late Quaternary strike‐slip faults, the Elsinore and San Jacinto faults. The state of stress within the Cahuilla Valley pluton has a ~40° angle between the maximum principal stress and the average trend of the swarms, suggesting that migrating pore fluid pressures aid in the formation and growth of zones of weakness. These swarms, which last more than 600 days each, exhibit clear bilateral spatial migration for distances of up to ~7–8 km and reach their full length in about 20 months. The slow spatial‐temporal development of the swarms corresponds to a fluid diffusivity of 0.006 to 0.01 m 2 /s, consistent with very low permeability rocks as expected for this block. There is no geodetic or other evidence for a slow slip event driving the swarms.

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USGS2017

Evaluating the role of land cover and climate uncertainties in computing gross primary production in Hawaiian Island ecosystems

Gross primary production (GPP) is the Earth’s largest carbon flux into the terrestrial biosphere and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric chemistry and global climate. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)-MOD17 data product is a widely used remote sensing-based model that provides global estimates of spatiotemporal trends in GPP. When the MOD17 algorithm is applied to regional scale heterogeneous landscapes, input data from coarse resolution land cover and climate products may increase uncertainty in GPP estimates, especially in high productivity tropical ecosystems. We examined the influence of using locally specific land cover and high-resolution local climate input data on MOD17 estimates of GPP for the State of Hawaii, a heterogeneous and discontinuous tropical landscape. Replacing the global land cover data input product (MOD12Q1) with Hawaii-specific land cover data reduced statewide GPP estimates by ~8%, primarily because the Hawaii-specific land cover map had less vegetated land area compared to the global land cover product. Replacing coarse resolution GMAO climate data with Hawaii-specific high-resolution climate data also reduced statewide GPP estimates by ~8% because of the higher spatial variability of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in the Hawaii-specific climate data. The combined use of both Hawaii-specific land cover and high-resolution Hawaii climate data inputs reduced statewide GPP by ~16%, suggesting equal and independent influence on MOD17 GPP estimates. Our sensitivity analyses within a heterogeneous tropical landscape suggest that refined global land cover and climate data sets may contribute to an enhanced MOD17 product at a variety of spatial scales.

Hawaii↗