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World minerals outlook—Cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium, palladium, platinum, and titanium through 2029

Given the rapid expansion in the demand for mineral commodities that underpin worldwide economic growth and technological advancement, information regarding expected country-level mine production and production capacity is becoming increasingly important to industry stakeholders, end users, and policymakers. Production capacity can limit future supply, depending on how rapidly that capacity is able to expand. Current capacity can be evaluated on the basis of past production. Decreases to future capacity can be taken into account from announcements of planned shutdowns of mines or processing facilities, which are frequently publicized well in advance of such closures. Likewise, capacity expansions, which usually involve multiple stages—such as permitting, financing, and construction (all of which take time)—can also be estimated. As such, it is possible to evaluate midterm future capacity based on estimates of today’s capacities along with consideration of future investment plans. This World Minerals Outlook provides estimated capacities for cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium, palladium, platinum, and titanium for 2025 through 2029. The results of this analysis indicate that two mineral commodities important to the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries—cobalt and lithium—are expected to have large capacity growth in the next few years, likely owing to expectations for increased demand for these batteries. For gallium, helium, palladium, and platinum, capacity is expected to remain stable or exhibit moderate growth. Still, these expected capacity levels are higher than current production, allowing for future production growth. The production capacity outlook is opaque for magnesium and titanium metal, which have a significant fraction of current production in nonmarket economies, such as China and Russia. Ultimately, though, where free market conditions prevail, full utilization of capacity potential for those commodities is likely to depend on supply deficits and prices that are above production costs.

Scientific Investigations Report

The U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Network—Groundwater—2023

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates a National Water Quality Network (NWQN) to monitor trends in groundwater quality and assess emerging contaminants of concern. It is a “network of networks” with 81 subnetworks being sampled on a decadal time scale. Each year, eight of the subnetworks are sampled. Subnetworks have 20–30 wells each and include studies of domestic supply wells or shallow groundwater (20–50 feet deep) underlying urban land use or agricultural land use. Currently there are 2,114 wells in the network.

conterminous United States

Debris-flow entrainment modelling under climate change: Considering antecedent moisture conditions along the flow path

Debris-flow volumes can increase along their flow path by entraining sediment stored in the channel bed and banks, thus also increasing hazard potential. Theoretical considerations, laboratory experiments and field investigations all indicate that the saturation conditions of the sediment along the flow path can greatly influence the amount of sediment entrained. However, this process is usually not considered for practical applications. This study aims to close this gap by combining runout and hydrological models into a predictive framework that is calibrated and tested using unique observations of sediment erosion and debris-flow properties available at a Swiss debris-flow observation station (Illgraben). To this end, hourly water input to the erodible channel is predicted using a simple, process-based hydrological model, and the resulting water saturation level in the upper sediment layer of the channel is modelled based on a Hortonian infiltration concept. Debris-flow entrainment is then predicted using the RAMMS debris-flow runout model. We find a strong correlation between the modelled saturation level of the sediment on the flow path and the channel-bed erodibility for single-surge debris-flow events with distinct fronts, indicating that the modelled water content is a good predictor for erosion simulated in RAMMS. Debris-flow properties with more complex flow behaviour (e.g., multiple surges or roll waves) are not as well predicted using this procedure, indicating that more physically complete models are necessary. Finally, we demonstrate how this modelling framework can be used for climate change impact assessment and show that earlier snowmelt may shift the peak of the debris-flow season to earlier in the year. Our novel modelling framework provides a plausible approach to reproduce saturation-dependent entrainment and thus better constrain event volumes for current and future hazard assessment.

Illgraben basin

Slip rate for the Rose Canyon fault through San Diego, California, based on analysis of GPS data: Evidence for a potential Rose Canyon–San Miguel-Vallecitos fault connection?

The Rose Canyon fault is the southern extension of the larger Newport–Inglewood–Rose Canyon fault system, which represents a major structural boundary in the Inner Continental Borderland (ICB) offshore of southern California. Ten to fifteen percent of total plate boundary motion in southern California is thought to be accommodated by the faults of the ICB, but the exact distribution of slip is uncertain. With an onshore segment, the Rose Canyon fault offers an opportunity to measure the slip rate using traditional geodetic methods. In this study, we use Global Positioning System (GPS) surface velocities from a combined campaign and continuous GPS network to constrain elastic models of the Rose Canyon fault. We then compare the observed surface velocities with proposed conceptual models of regional fault connections that facilitate the transfer of slip into the Rose Canyon fault to assess how well the observations are explained by the models. The results of elastic half‐space models suggest that the Rose Canyon fault may be slipping toward the higher end of geologic estimates, with the preferred model indicating a slip rate of 2.4 ± 0.5 mm/yr. Although limited in terms of near‐fault benchmarks, we find an improved model fit using an asymmetrical elastic half‐space model and a higher slip rate, suggesting a potential rheological contrast across the Rose Canyon fault, similar to observations from the northern Newport–Inglewood fault segments. Observed GPS surface velocities, background seismicity, and gravity anomalies south of San Diego Bay point toward a more easterly trace for the Rose Canyon fault, suggesting a possible connection with the San Miguel–Vallecitos fault system. Such a connection could increase the potential rupture lengths of future earthquakes and have important consequences for regional seismic hazards.

California

Geology and geochemistry of Jurassic plutonic rocks, Baboquivari Mountains, south-central Arizona

Among the plutons of the Jurassic magmatic arc segment in southern Arizona, northern Sonora, and southern California, two distinctive rock types dominate, occurring together in numerous mountain ranges: porphyritic, titanite-bearing hornblende-biotite granodiorite; and biotite leucogranite. These characteristic rocks are particularly well preserved and well exposed around Kitt Peak, in the Baboquivari Mountains, southern Arizona. The Middle to early Late Jurassic Kitt Peak Plutonic Suite (KPPS) comprises three units: Aguirre Peak Quartz Diorite (APQD;<170 Ma, >=165 Ma, U-Pb), chiefly hornblende mesodiorite; Kitt Peak Granodiorite (KPGD; 165 Ma), hornblende-biotite granodiorite and monzogranite; and Pavo Kug Granite (PKG; 159 Ma), equigranular biotite leucogranite. This range also hosts a fourth, regionally unusual, Jurassic plutonic unit: the Baboquivari Peak Perthite Granite, related to post-arc, Late Jurassic crustal extension. Binary variation diagrams, incompatible element patterns, and REE spectra indicate APQD and KPGD are consanguineous. APQD basaltic mesodiorite evidently approximates the parental magma for the APQD–KPGD series. More evolved rocks of this series evidently formed by combinations of fractional crystallization and mixing with or assimilation of crustal material. PKG is less directly related to APQD and KPGD than these two are to one another.

Arizona, Sonora

Geologic map of the southern Stillwater Range, Nevada

The southern Stillwater Range in west-central Nevada contains the western part of the Oligocene Stillwater-Clan Alpine caldera complex, which extends about 55 kilometers (km) east from the west side of the Stillwater Range to the northwestern Desatoya Mountains. The complex consists of at least seven nested ignimbrite calderas and subjacent plutonic rocks emplaced into a complex basement composed of Mesozoic metasedimentary and metavolcanic rocks and Cretaceous granitic plutons. The calderas formed during large-volume (100s to greater than (>) 2,500 cubic kilometers [km 3 ]) eruptions of silicic ignimbrites between about 30.4 and 25.1 million years before present (Ma). The Job Canyon and Poco Canyon calderas and the western part of the much larger Elevenmile Canyon caldera, and their plutonic roots, are exposed in the southern Stillwater Range. There, the caldera complex was steeply tilted during large-magnitude crustal extension in the middle Miocene, and further exhumed during the late Miocene to Holocene Basin and Range extension that formed the modern Stillwater Range. This tilted crustal section affords an exceptional opportunity to view structural cross sections of ignimbrite calderas and their plutonic roots to paleodepths as much as 9–10 km.

Nevada

A newly identified creeping strand of the Concord fault, San Francisco Bay Area

The Concord fault constitutes a major branch of the Pacific–North America transform plate boundary in Northern California, bridging the strike‐slip Bartlett Springs ‐ Green Valley Fault system to the north with the Greenville and Calaveras Faults to the south. Like many faults in the San Francisco Bay Area its long‐term slip is partially accommodated by aseismic slip (creep). Although creep has been recognized and monitored on the northern half of the fault for decades, the precise location of the southern half of the fault and its slip rate—whether accommodated seismically or aseismically—has remained enigmatic. How slip transfers between the Concord and Greenville or Calaveras faults to the south remains an outstanding question. New field observations presented here indicate that the active trace of the fault south of downtown Concord is not where previously interpreted and is indeed actively creeping. We report observations of shallow creep continuing >7 km farther south along the Concord fault than previously reported, along a fault strand not previously recognized for most of its length. This is evident as right‐laterally deflected concrete curbs and sidewalk slabs on both sides of every street that crosses the fault at a high angle in southeast Concord and northeast Walnut Creek. We document the magnitude and location of these deflections to estimate accumulated right‐lateral aseismic slip expressed in engineered structures. Offsets of these piercing lines range from 8 to 18 cm, over widths varying from narrow breaks along centimeter‐scale concrete joints to 10‐m‐wide zones of deflection. Significantly, this active trace is ∼400 m west of where the Quaternary active trace has previously been inferred, placing it within—rather than bounding—the built area of suburban Concord. Slip along the fault has already caused infrastructure damage. These results revise our understanding of the southern Concord fault and help constrain its seismic potential.

California

Virginia and Landsat

From the shores of Jamestown and spreading north, south, and west, the lands that became the State of Virginia were some of the first in North America top experience rapid landscape change from European settlement. Imagery and data from the USGS Landsat series of satellites offer an unparalleled resource for the study, understanding, and preservation of Virginia’s land and water resources. From monitoring the health of water bodies to managing invasive species to planning for a range of climate change effects, the USGS National Land Imaging Program’s stewardship and public delivery of Landsat data have benefitted Virginians in myriad ways.

Virginia

Fingerprinting magmatic REE deposit sources with zircon petrochronology

Carbonatites and associated alkaline silicate rocks are of considerable economic interest due to their enrichments in rare earth elements. The petrogenesis and source(s) of these complexes, however, are poorly understood. Models propose either mantle plume-derived carbon-rich melts or a mantle source enriched by subduction-related metasomatism. We use zircon trace elements to fingerprint carbonatite-alkaline complex sources, focusing on the economically significant 1.4 Ga Mountain Pass intrusive suite (MPIS). Autocrystic zircon from MPIS alkaline silicate rocks are enriched in Th and U relative to Nb suggesting a subduction influenced, oxidized source region. Lower Sc/Yb, higher Ti concentrations, and the absence of Eu anomalies in autocrystic zircon suggest derivation from a less hydrous, hotter, and deeper mantle source relative to arc-related 1.8–1.6 Ga inherited zircon. These data are best explained by syn- to post-collisional Mesoproterozoic reactivation of a subduction-metasomatized mantle source. The source and tectonic setting of the MPIS contrasts with Mesoproterozoic Gifford Creek and Bayan Obo carbonatites which exhibit plume-like compositions and are associated with rifts, suggesting different sources and tectonic settings for these economically significant deposits. We demonstrate that zircon petrochronology is a robust method for distinguishing carbonatite sources and can inform more targeted exploration strategies for critical mineral resources.

Conference Paper

Estimated groundwater recharge for mid-century and end-of-century climate projections, Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Moloka‘i, Lāna‘i, Maui, and the Island of Hawai‘i

Demand for freshwater in the State of Hawaiʻi is expected to increase by roughly 13 percent from 2020 to 2035. Groundwater availability in Hawaiʻi is affected by a number of factors, including land cover, rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration, and climate change. To evaluate the availability of fresh groundwater under projected future-climate conditions, estimates of groundwater recharge are needed. A water-budget model with a daily computation interval was used to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi for recent climate conditions and three future-climate scenarios. Climate conditions from 1978 to 2007 were used as the reference period for recent climate conditions on each island. The three future-climate scenarios were developed using available high-resolution downscaled climate projections that include (1) a mid-century scenario using projected rainfall conditions for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario during 2041–71 with a total radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter by the year 2100 (RCP8.5 2041–71 scenario), (2) a dry-climate scenario using projected rainfall conditions for the RCP8.5 scenario during 2071–99, and (3) a wet-climate scenario using projected rainfall conditions for the “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” A1B scenario during 2080–99 for Maui, the RCP4.5 scenario during 2080–99 for Kauaʻi, Lānaʻi, and the Island of Hawaiʻi, and the RCP8.5 scenario during 2080–99 for Oʻahu and Molokaʻi. An additional drought scenario was added for Lānaʻi to assess the effect of extreme drought conditions during 2008–12 on groundwater recharge. All scenarios used 2020 land cover. Mean annual groundwater recharge is estimated to decrease between 5 and 55 percent on all six islands in this study for the mid-century and dry-climate scenarios relative to the reference-period recharge. Recharge is estimated to increase for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, and Maui between 2 and 43 percent and decrease for the Island of Hawaiʻi by about 4 percent for the wet-climate scenario. Comparing the mid-century and dry-climate scenarios, all 110 aquifer systems (management areas defined by the State of Hawaiʻi Commission on Water Resource Management) from all six islands show similar direction in drying (104 aquifer systems) or wetting (6 aquifer systems) changes for recharge. However, among the three future scenarios, only 35 of 110 aquifer systems show similar direction in drying (30 aquifer systems) or wetting (5 aquifer systems) changes for recharge.

Hawaii

Bedrock geologic map of the Eagle Lake quadrangle, Essex County, New York

The bedrock geology of the 7.5-minute Eagle Lake quadrangle, Essex County, New York, consists of deformed and metamorphosed Mesoproterozoic gneisses of the Adirondack Highlands unconformably overlain by weakly deformed lower Paleozoic sedimentary rocks of the Champlain Valley. The Mesoproterozoic rocks occur on the eastern edge of the Adirondack Highlands and represent an extension of the Grenville Province of Laurentia. Granulite facies Mesoproterozoic paragneiss, marble, and amphibolite hosted the emplacement of an anorthosite-mangerite-charnockite-granite (AMCG) suite, now exposed mostly as orthogneiss, at approximately 1.18–1.15 giga-annum (Ga, billion years before present). The earliest of four phases of deformation (D1) predated AMCG magmatism and is characterized by gneissosity, rarely preserved F1 isoclinal folds, and migmatite in the paragneiss host rocks. A sample of hornblende quartz syenite from the AMCG suite, collected from an abandoned railroad cut on Old Furnace Road, yielded a U-Pb zircon age of 1,149±10 million years before present. D2 deformation produced a composite penetrative gneissosity, migmatite, and isoclinal F2 folds. Towards the end of D2, felsic magmatism (including the regionally extensive Lyon Mountain Granite Gneiss, abbreviated “LMG”) spread by penetrative migration as semiconcordant alkali feldspar granite sheets subparallel to S2 into the previously deformed lithologies. The LMG crystallized at approximately 1.15 to 1.14 Ga and displays synkinematic F2 folds thus constraining the time of D2 deformation. Exhumation of the Marcy anorthosite began during D3 along a mylonitic extensional detachment, as a type of core complex. Protracted D3 produced F3 folds exhibited in regional domes and basins, such as the Hammondville antiform, reactivation of the S2 foliation, partial melting, metamorphism, metasomatism, iron ore remobilization, and intrusion of magnetite-bearing pegmatite both as layer-parallel sills and crosscutting dikes. D4 created NE- and NW-trending boudinage, local high-grade ductile shear zones, and crosscutting granitic pegmatite dikes. Kilometer (km)-scale lineaments readily observed in lidar data are Ediacaran mafic dikes and Phanerozoic brittle faults. Lower Paleozoic rocks are part of the Early Cambrian to Late Ordovician great American carbonate bank on the ancient margin of Laurentia. The Potsdam Sandstone preserves the Cambrian stratigraphy in outliers above the Great Unconformity. The Paleozoic rocks are weakly folded and block faulted. Parts of the quadrangle are covered by undifferentiated glacial deposits, but much of the quadrangle contains only a variably thick, veneer of unmapped glacial till over significant areas of exposed bedrock. The map also shows waste rock piles and locations of historical mining operations. This study was undertaken to improve our understanding of the bedrock geology in the Adirondack Highlands, establish a modern framework for 1:24,000-scale bedrock geologic mapping in the Adirondack Mountains, and provide a modern context for historical mines. This Scientific Investigations Map of the Eagle Lake 7.5-minute quadrangle consists of a map sheet, an explanatory pamphlet, and a geographic information system database that includes bedrock geologic units, faults, outcrops, and structural geologic information. The map sheet includes a bedrock geologic map, a correlation of map units, a description of map units, an explanation of map symbols, and two cross sections. The explanatory pamphlet includes a discussion of the geology.

New York

Joint pilot fish habitat framework

This story map will take you through the process of exploring and testing methods necessary for a higher resolution, seamless fish habitat assessment across both inland and estuarine waters through the lens of our joint pilot assessment Fish habitat assessments attempt to relate past, current, or future landscape conditions to the state of fish species occurrence, distribution, abundance, or community and habitat condition in streams, rivers, or estuaries. Previous fish habitat assessments, such as the National Fish Habitat Assessment, conducted separate and disconnected assessments for inland waters and estuaries. In this project, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) and U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS ) researchers created a seamless spatial framework to allow assessments that integrate influences on fish habitat from headwaters to the estuary. This effort began when the Chesapeake Bay Program Fish Habitat Action Team expressed interest in a Baywide fish habitat assessment spanning tidal salt, tidal fresh, warm non-tidal, and cold non-tidal waters. However, the complexity of the myriad of implementation details to consider when developing such an assessment necessitated the need for a tributary-specific pilot assessment. To conduct this pilot assessment, a NOAA/USGS joint partnership was formed with cooperation and support from the Chesapeake Bay Agreement and Chesapeake Bay Fish Habitat Action Team (FHAT).

Maryland

Computational electromagnetic geophysics for groundwater system studies: A review on established practices and recent advances

Identifying effective solutions for locating groundwater resources and ensuring the quality of drinking water is increasingly urgent, given the challenges posed by climate change and population growth. This review investigates electromagnetic geophysical imaging techniques, in both time- and frequency-domain, that can provide valuable insights for groundwater assessment. We explore computational electromagnetic methods used to evaluate electromagnetic data and several recent hydrogeophysical case studies. As open-source frameworks for modeling electromagnetic geophysical problems become available, a broader range of researchers can interpret their data with computationally advanced software. We provide an overview of documented open-source codes for evaluating electromagnetic data and analyze various hydrological targets in relation to their electromagnetic surveying technique and the computational method applied. Furthermore, we evaluate the potential of advanced computational techniques, including three-dimensional modeling, non-deterministic inversion and machine learning, to couple geophysical with numerical groundwater modeling and apply it in groundwater system studies. Despite obstacles such as complexity and resource demands, our findings indicate that the quantification and integration of predictive uncertainties from both electromagnetic and hydrological data and simulations would significantly improve the reliability of hydrogeophysical models. This can lead to a deeper understanding of groundwater systems and improved management practices.

Journal of Hydrology

Numerical model of the groundwater-flow system near the southeastern part of Puget Sound, Washington

Groundwater flow in the active model area (AMA) was simulated using a groundwater-flow model. A steady-state model version of the model simulates equilibrium conditions, and a transient model version simulates monthly variability. The model corresponds to the physical and temporal dimensions of the conceptual model and groundwater budget. The steady-state model version represents average conditions for an 11-year period (January 1, 2005–December 31, 2015), and the transient model represents monthly hydrologic variability within that period. The 13-layer model was constructed using MODFLOW-NWT with a uniformly spaced grid consisting of 416 rows, 433 columns, and cells with a horizontal dimension of 500 feet (ft) on a side. The model was calibrated to measured values of water levels in wells and lakes and estimated base flow for selected streamflow measurement stations, commonly referred to as streamgages. Model calibration was accomplished using a combination of manual and automatic methods, including the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted model input parameters with the aim of minimizing the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. Model boundary conditions consist of all simulated groundwater inflow to and outflow from the AMA. For example, a stream reach that simulates a gain from or loss to groundwater is a boundary condition that allows water to exit or enter, respectively, the groundwater system. Other boundary conditions include springs, seeps, precipitation recharge, groundwater exchange with lakes and Puget Sound, and groundwater pumping. A comparison of the estimated groundwater budget to that simulated by the steady-state model version indicates that the relative percentages of total inflow or total outflow for six major categories of boundary conditions are similar for the two budgets. The model was used to simulate three suites of scenarios of potential drought and water-use changes. Scenario 1 suite consisted of the steady-state model version that was run with 0, 15, 20, and 25 percent reduction of precipitation recharge to assess the corresponding reductions in base flow with decreasing recharge. The last simulation for the scenario 1 suite consisted of the transient model version simulating 3 years of consecutive seasonal drought, defined by the months of May through September, to assess the corresponding base-flow reductions. Scenario 2 suite consisted of the steady-state model version with all simulated groundwater use removed, compared with a simulation that includes current groundwater use to evaluate changes to potentiometric surfaces and base flows. Scenario 3 suite consisted of a transient model version of the model that simulated pumping increases for four different categories of water-supply wells (compared to no pumping increases) to evaluate resulting reductions in base flow. Although, these scenarios provide examples of model applications and useful insights, many other scenarios could be simulated. A description of how to download the model is described in the body of this report. Uncertainty is associated with most model inputs. Groundwater levels, lake levels, and land-surface altitudes are relatively certain; other model inputs are far less certain, including precipitation recharge, base flow, hydraulic properties, water use, and the three-dimensional structure of subsurface hydrogeologic units. Models are useful not because of high levels of accuracy of all model inputs, but because they combine the best information and estimates available, thereby providing the best predictions available related to physical processes. The model described in this report simulates groundwater flow on a regional scale, which has inherent limitations for simulating hydrologic scenarios at local scales. Model structures and inputs were generalized to be consistent with this regional scale. For example, the actual groundwater system has much greater heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity than is possible within the model’s degrees of freedom. Variations in hydraulic gradients over distances less than 500 ft cannot be simulated. The distances between model features, such as a pumping well and a stream, must be placed at 500-ft intervals and are co-located if both features are within the same model cell.

Washington

Geologic map of the Guinevere Planitia quadrangle (V–30), Venus

This 1:5,000,000-scale geologic map of the Guinevere Planitia quadrangle divides the region into 15 geologic material units, defined using Magellan synthetic aperture radar (12.6-centimeter-wavelength radar system; 75 meters per pixel) datasets and including upland terrain units (2.4 percent of the surface area), plains materials units (59 percent), flow materials associated with named and unnamed eruptive centers (37.2 percent), small volcanic edifices, and impact crater materials (1.4 percent). Upland terrain units consist of tessera and lineated upland material, plains materials consist of Guinevere regional plains and Guinevere lineated and mottled plains, and flow materials consist of lobate flow material and plains-forming flow material. Specific lobate flows associated with Atanua Mons, Tuli Mons, Var Mons, and Uilata Fluctus are mapped separately. Other mapped units are impact crater material and small volcanic edifice. In addition to geologic units, we mapped linear features that show patterns of deformation or flow across the quadrangle. These consist of faults, wrinkle ridges, broad arches, channels, troughs, and flow direction indicators. The map region also contains several small volcanic features: shields, depressions, and craters. These, in combination with the plains, large volcanoes, and coronae, show the pervasive influence of volcanism across Venusian lowlands. The rims of nine identified impact features are delineated; large bright and dark haloes, which in some cases are associated with individual impact craters, are mapped as surficial mantling deposits. We documented spatial relationships using the stratigraphic and cross-cutting relationships of the quadrangle’s geologic units and features to provide a synthesis of the region’s geologic history. The upland terrain of the quadrangle indicates intense tectonic deformation and uplift. It is exposed as embayed remnants, typically within the plains, and represents the oldest geologic materials locally and across the region. Guinevere plains and the plains-forming flow unit appear to be assemblages of volcanic flows from multiple sources, including distinct coronae and corona-like structures. The temporal evolution of Guinevere lineated and mottled plains was likely protracted, with continued formation of small volcanic edifices over a long period. The morphologic and radar brightness characteristics of volcanoes in the region indicate their growth may have involved (1) multiple large-scale eruptive centers with recognizable spatial and temporal sequences, (2) extensive lava flow fields with a multitude of flows producing complex, overlapping patterns, and (3) numerous small volcanic edifices, including shields, domes, and cones. Although geologic patterns common to other regions of Venus are evident in the Guinevere Planitia quadrangle, local relative age relationships are inconsistent or unclear, preventing robust stratigraphic correlation. The mapping results do, however, indicate complicated local sequences of volcanic and tectonic activity.

Scientific Investigations Map

Opportunities for the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Seismic Hazard Model to improve seismic risk assessment of critical infrastructure.

As fragility and risk modeling techniques and computational capabilities evolve, complemented by moving toward more routine and systematic seismic risk assessment of all buildings and critical infrastructure, the authors pose a few critical questions to investigate how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) can be used and enhanced further to serve such issues. In this paper, we use three examples from multiple sectors to (1) identify the role of USGS NSHMs in evaluating seismic risks to critical infrastructure, (2) quantify potential impacts from NSHM enhancements (i.e., [i] hazard curves for the vertical component of ground motion, [ii] stochastic event sets, and [iii] maps of probabilistic ground failure hazards), and (3) clarify the feasibility of relevant NSHM improvements. We illuminate that NSHMs are commonly used in location-specific performance assessments, whereas earthquake effects on critical infrastructure can be widespread across large geospatial regions. Further, we found that without the NSHM extensions considered here, risk can be severely underestimated, e.g., neglecting ground failure hazards can underestimate regional loss by a factor of two or more. Although many challenges remain, we developed example prototypes to clarify the feasibility of the NSHM extensions, which can facilitate improved management of risks to critical infrastructure.

Earthquake Spectra Journal

Assessment of coastal and fluvial morphodynamic changes using Structure-for-Motion: A case study of the Sfȃntu Gheorghe Mouth (Danube Delta, Romania)

The ability to accurately map erosion, flooding, and habitat loss in coastal environments is crucial for formulating national strategies aimed at preventing and mitigating the impacts of natural disasters. A fundamental component of this process is the implementation of coastal morphodynamics monitoring through Structure-from-Motion (SfM) techniques, utilizing high-resolution 2D/3D data obtained from aerial photogrammetry. To assess morphodynamic changes over a three-year period (2022 – 2024), several SfM-based photogrammetric studies were conducted, each year, in the Romanian sector of the Danube-Black Sea coastal zone, specifically at the mouth of one of the Danube River distributaries (Sf Gheorghe branch) into the Black Sea, and along the left bank, near Sf Gheorghe locality, located within the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR). The essential equipment for aerial photogrammetry comprises Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In this study, the UAV used was a DJI Mavic 3T (Enterprise/Thermal) drone, complemented by two Trimble R12i and R4 GNSS systems, as well as approximately 10 Ground Control Points (GCPs). Data acquisition and processing were carried out using specialized photogrammetric software (Agisoft Metashape) along with various GIS tools (e.g., Blue Marble Geographics Global Mapper and ESRI ArcMap). The photogrammetric products generated for the study, as detailed in this paper, include Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), Digital Terrain Models (DTMs), orthomosaics (orthophotos), and others. At Sfântu Gheorghe beach, a comparison between 2023 and 2024 photogrammetric surveys revealed that the left bank of the Sf. Gheorghe Arm, at the river mouth into the Black Sea, suffered from a twist (erosion) of up to 64 metres. Additionally, on the selected perimetre (total area of 31,910 square meters ) from the beach and dune zone of Sf. Gheorghe, an area of up to 16,202 square meters was eroded between 2023 and 2024. This contrasts with the period between 2022 and 2023, during which deposition predominated. Erosion at the Danube mouths and the adjacent Black Sea coastline is driven by a complex interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors. Natural processes, including subsidence, sea-level rise, and episodic extreme storm events, contribute significantly to coastal dynamics. Meanwhile, human-induced factors, such as upstream hydrotechnical works that limits sediment transport, cutting of navigation canals, as well as the exacerbating effects of climate change, further accelerate erosion. The recent Structure-from-Motion (SfM) surveys provide essential quantitative data, enabling a detailed analysis of both short-term and long-term morphodynamic changes influenced by seasonal variations and extreme hydrometeorological events in this highly dynamic coastal system.

Sfȃntu Gheorghe Mouth (Danube Delta)

Low flows and flow duration of Tennessee streams through 1981

Estimates of low-flow characteristics and flow duration for the period of record at continuous-record streamflow gages are essential in hydrologic studies and water-resources management. This report provides estimates of low flow for 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, and 90 consecutive days for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, and 20 years for continuous-record streamflow gages. These estimates were used in correlation methods to estimate low flow at partial-record streamflow sites for 1, 3, and 7 consecutive days for a recurrence interval of 10 years; and 3 consecutive days for a recurrence interval of 20 years.

Tennessee