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USGS2016

Assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system From Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey began a multiyear regional assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP) aquifer system in 2010 as part of its ongoing regional assessments of groundwater availability of the principal aquifers of the Nation. The goals of this national assessment are to document effects of human activities on water levels and groundwater storage, explore climate variability effects on the regional water budget, and provide consistent and integrated information that is useful to those who use and manage the groundwater resource. As part of this nationwide assessment, the USGS evaluated available groundwater resources within the NACP aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province depends heavily on groundwater to meet agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs. The groundwater assessment of the NACP aquifer system included an evaluation of how water use has changed over time; this evaluation primarily used groundwater budgets and development of a numerical modeling tool to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate trends. This assessment focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to examine changes in groundwater pumping, storage, and water levels. The regional scale provides a broad view of the sources and demands on the system with time. The sub-regional scale provides an evaluation of the differing response of the aquifer system across geographic areas allowing for closer examination of the interaction between different aquifers and confining units and the changes in these interactions under pumping and recharge conditions in 2013 and hydrologic stresses as much as 45 years in the future. By focusing on multiple scales, water-resource managers may utilize this study to understand system response to changes as they affect the system as a whole. The NACP aquifer system extends from Long Island to northeastern North Carolina, and includes aquifers primarily within New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. The seaward-dipping sedimentary wedge that underlies the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province forms a complex groundwater system. Although the NACP aquifer system is recognized by the U.S. Geological Survey as one of the smallest of the 66 principal aquifer systems in the Nation, it ranks 13th overall in terms of total groundwater withdrawals and is 7th in population served. Despite abundant precipitation [about 45 inches per year (in/yr)], the supply of fresh surface water in this region is limited because many of the surface waters in this area are brackish estuaries, contributing to why many communities in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province rely heavily on groundwater to meet their water needs. Increases in population and changes in land use during the past 100 years have resulted in diverse increased demands for freshwater throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province with groundwater serving as a vital source of drinking water for the nearly 20 million people who live in the region. Total groundwater withdrawal in 2013 was estimated to be about 1,300 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) and accounts for about 40 percent of the drinking water supply with the densely populated areas tending to have the highest rates of withdrawals and, therefore, being most susceptible to effects from these withdrawals over time. Water levels in many of the confined aquifers are decreasing by as much as 2 feet per year (ft/yr) in response to extensive development and subsequent increased withdrawals throughout the region. Total water-level decreases (drawdowns) are more than 100 feet (ft) in some aquifers from their predevelopment (before 1900) levels. These drawdowns extend across state lines and under the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, creating the potential for interstate aquifer management issues. Regional water-resources managers in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province face challenges beyond competing local domestic, industrial, agricultural, and environmental demands for water. Large changes in regional water use have made the State-level management of aquifer resources more difficult because of hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province is underlain by a wedge of unconsolidated to partially consolidated sediments that are typically thousands of feet thick along the coastline with a maximum thickness of about 10,000 ft near the edge of the continental shelf. The NACP aquifer system consists of nine confined aquifers and nine confining units capped by an unconfined surficial aquifer that is bounded laterally from the west by the contact between Coastal Plain sediments and the upland Piedmont bedrock. This aquifer system extends to the east to the limit of the Continental Shelf, however, the boundary between fresh and saline groundwater is considered to be much closer to the shoreline and varies vertically by aquifer. Precipitation over the region for average conditions from 2005 to 2009 is about 61,800 Mgal/d, but about 70 percent of it is lost to evapotranspiration resulting in an inflow of about 19,600 Mgal/d entering the groundwater system as aquifer recharge. Most of this recharge enters the aquifer system and flows through the shallow unconfined aquifer and either discharges to streams or directly to coastal waters without reaching the deep, confined aquifer system. In addition to recharge from precipitation, other sources of water include the return of wastewater from domestic septic systems of about 240 Mgal/d, about 60 Mgal/d of water released from storage in the confined system, and about 30 Mgal/d of lateral inflow at the boundary between freshwater and saltwater in response to pumping for conditions in 2013. The outflow needed to balance the inflows was subdivided between streamflow, discharge to tidal portions of streams, and coastal discharge. The hydrologic budget developed for current [2013] conditions determined that 93 percent of the total outflow was to surface waters with about 70 percent divided evenly between streamflow and shallow coastal discharge and 23 percent as discharge to tidal waters. The remaining 7 percent of the total outflow components include withdrawals from both the surficial and confined aquifers of the groundwater system. The groundwater availability assessment of the NACP aquifer system highlights the importance of analyses at both the regional and local scales to understand how changes in land use, water use, and climate have affected groundwater resources and how these resources may change in the future. The investigation included assessments of the regional changes in water levels and budgets across State lines, the importance of considering storage change in the confining units, the response of the aquifer system to a continuation of current [2013] hydrologic stresses into the future, and the potential effects of climate change and sea-level rise on the aquifer system. The Potomac aquifer group includes two of the most widely used aquifers in the NACP aquifer system, the Potomac-Patapsco and Potomac-Patuxent regional aquifers, providing about 24 percent of the total groundwater used in the region. Withdrawals from large pumping centers in this deep, confined aquifer group have resulted in substantial decreases in water-levels across state lines, particularly between southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina as well as between southern New Jersey and northern Delaware where water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer have decreased by as much as 200 ft and 50 ft, respectively from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. This response in water levels also is reflected in changes in water budgets where, for example, about 20 percent of the total response to pumping in Virginia is met by inducing flow from adjacent States. Understanding and quantifying these hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries is critical for the State- and regional-level management of aquifer resources. The cumulative storage loss from the intervening confining units throughout the entire NACP aquifer system was about 35 percent of the total storage loss from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. In geographic areas such as Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland, and New Jersey, the water released from storage in the confining units makes up the majority of the total storage release from the groundwater system and is becoming proportionally more important over time as the surficial aquifer approaches equilibrium with respect to pumping and recharge stresses as of 2013. Storage loss from the confining units is of particular concern because, unlike in the sands that comprise the confined aquifers, water removed from the clayey confining unit sediments cannot be replenished as these units gradually compress. This non-recoverable storage loss, if great enough, can result in land subsidence where these units are thick and the release from storage is relatively large and contributes to increased concerns for sea-level rise in areas such as the lower portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Groundwater usage increased dramatically in the NACP aquifer system during post-World War II era from the mid-1940s to early the 1980s, with withdrawals increasing from about 400 Mgal/d to more than 1,300 Mgal/d. Although groundwater withdrawals have been relatively constant since the early 1980s, about half of the total groundwater withdrawn from the NACP aquifer system since 1900 was withdrawn in the past 30 years. An analysis of the response of the groundwater system to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping for an additional 30 years into the future shows that the flow system continues to adjust in terms of changes in water budget components, water levels, and the boundary between freshwater and saltwater as it approaches equilibrium. The largest change in water budget components is the reduction in the amount of water released from storage. Across the entire NACP aquifer system, the reduction of storage release from 7 to 4 percent of the total water budget change is accounted for by reductions in groundwater discharge to streams and coastal waters. Locally, a similar response is calculated for each of the geographic areas except for Virginia where the amount of water released from storage accounts for about 25 percent of the total change in water budget. This finding suggests that the groundwater flow system in Virginia is not approaching equilibrium under the current [2013] stresses and, therefore, water levels will continue to decrease even if the pumping remains constant. An analysis of the change in water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer as pumping is continued 30 years into the future reveals that the largest decreases in water levels throughout the NACP aquifer system will occur in the southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina parts of the study area. It is these areas that also see the greatest potential for increased lateral movement of saline groundwater in the deep, confined portion of the groundwater flow system in response to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping rates. The potential effects of long-term climate change and variability on the hydrologic system and availability of water resources in the NACP aquifer system continue to be of serious societal concern. These concerns include the effects of changes in aquifer recharge and in sea-level rise on the groundwater flow system. An assessment of the potential effects of a prolonged drought during current [2013] pumping conditions indicated that the reductions in recharge associated with droughts, including additional irrigation withdrawals required to meet increased crop water demand, have the greatest effects on water levels and streamflows in the surficial aquifer, and changes in water levels in the confined aquifers primarily resulted from the increased withdrawals associated with increased irrigation pumping; this response was most apparent in the Delmarva Peninsula. These results suggest that water levels may not be susceptible to the effects of droughts in the confined aquifers of the NACP aquifer system not used for irrigation, unlike in the unconfined surficial aquifer. A second analysis also was conducted to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province because recent analyses of the relative rates of sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast indicate that the Mid-Atlantic region represents a hot spot with anomalously higher rates of sea-level rise than observed elsewhere in the United States. Groundwater levels rose from 0 to 3 ft in response to a 3-ft simulated change in sea-level position, with the largest response occurring along the shoreline and away from non-tidal streams. About 37 percent (or 10,000 square miles) of the area of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience about a 0.5-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position, whereas about 18 percent (almost 5,000 square miles) of land of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience a 2-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position. These increases in the water table are of particular concern in low-lying areas where the unsaturated (vadose) zone is already thin, thus creating concerns for groundwater inundation of subsurface infrastructure, such as basements, septic systems, and subway systems. This increase in the water table also will likely alter the distribution of groundwater discharge to surface-water bodies thus increasing groundwater flow to streams that would have otherwise discharged directly to coastal waters. Throughout the NACP aquifer system, this redistribution of groundwater discharge results in an additional 2 percent of base flow in streams. Although the increases in groundwater discharge to streams (and corresponding decreases in discharge to coastal waters) calculated for the entire NACP aquifer system and its geographic areas represent only a small increase compared with current [2013] conditions, this redistribution of groundwater discharge from the coast to streams locally can alter the delivery of freshwater input to coastal receiving waters and have ecohydrological implications on the sensitive ecosystems which rely on a balance of groundwater discharge and surface-water flow.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗
USGS2022

Maximizing species distribution model performance when using historical occurrences and variables of varying persistency

Occurrence data used to build species distribution models often include historical records from locations in which the species no longer exists. When these records are paired with contemporary environmental values that no longer represent the conditions the species experienced, the model creates false associations that hurt predictive performance. The extent of mismatching increases with the number of historical occurrences and with inclusion of environmental variables that are prone to change over time. Indeed, the mismatch between occurrence data and contemporaneous environmental variables is a common dilemma when modeling rare or cryptic species, especially those of conservation concern that were once more abundant. Herein, we assess (1) the impact of historical occurrences on model performance across three sets of environmental variables of increasing persistency and (2) the performance of models built using selected-historical occurrences from locations that showed evidence of limited environmental change over time. Concepts are tested on federally listed flatwoods salamanders, reflecting real-world conservation management efforts. We predicted that, compared to other occurrence sets, (1) historical occurrences would perform best with environmental variables that were more persistent, (2) recent occurrences would perform best when the environmental variables were more impersistent, and that (3) our selected-historical occurrences would perform best with a combination of persistent and impersistent variables. Our results showed the expected inversion of model performance of recent and historical occurrences across environmental variables of increasing persistency when evaluated by correct predictions. However, the inversion was not seen in area under the curve performance, in which historical occurrences outperformed recent occurrence models across all variable sets. Selected-historical occurrences did not notably improve performance over all-historical occurrences in any metric or variable set. To maximize utility and performance, modelers could acknowledge potential trade-offs from inclusion of historical occurrences and consider number and age of recent and historical occurrences available, the persistency of environmental variables considered, and how their conservation goals are reflected in model design and evaluation, particularly with respect to sensitivity versus specificity. Our study lends support for inclusion of historical occurrences, with the potential exception of mostly impersistent variables when sensitivity is the highest priority.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2010

Modeling the Effects of Mortality on Sea Otter Populations

Conservation and management of sea otters can benefit from managing the magnitude and sex composition of human related mortality, including harvesting within sustainable levels. Using age and sex-specific reproduction and survival rates from field studies, we created matrix population models representing sea otter populations with growth rates of 1.005, 1.072, and 1.145, corresponding to stable, moderate, and rapid rates of change. In each modeled population, we incrementally imposed additional annual mortality over a 20-year period and calculated average annual rates of change (lambda). Additional mortality was applied to (1) males only, (2) at a 1:1 ratio of male to female, and (3) at a 3:1 ratio of male to female. Dependent pups (age 0-0.5) were excluded from the mortality. Maintaining a stable or slightly increasing population was largely dependent on (1) the magnitude of additional mortality, (2) the underlying rate of change in the population during the period of additional mortality, and (3) the extent that females were included in the additional mortality (due to a polygnous reproductive system where one male may breed with more than one female). In stable populations, additional mortality as high as 2.4 percent was sustainable if limited to males only, but was reduced to 1.2 percent when males and females were removed at ratios of 3:1 or 0.5 percent at ratios of 1:1. In moderate growth populations, additional mortality of 9.8 percent (male-only) and 15.0 percent (3:1 male to female) maximized the sustainable mortality about 3-10 ten-fold over the stable population levels. However, if additional mortality consists of males and females at equal proportions, the sustainable rate is 7.7 percent. In rapid growth populations, maximum sustainable levels of mortality as high as 27.3 percent were achieved when the ratio of additional mortality was 3:1 male to female. Although male-only mortality maximized annual harvest in stable populations, high male biased mortality in all simulations eventually led to low proportions of males, leading to instability in projected populations over time. Our findings identify the critical need to understand underlying rates of change that can be acquired only through frequent monitoring of managed populations. Models could be improved through better understanding of the effects of density and demographic and environmental stochasticity on sea otter vital rates. Although our primary objective was to provide information useful in managing harvests of sea otters, our findings have implications for the conservation and management of sea otter populations subjected to other sources of mortality that can be quantified, such as incidental, accidental, or illegal.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2015

Management applications of discontinuity theory

Human impacts on the environment are multifaceted and can occur across distinct spatiotemporal scales. Ecological responses to environmental change are therefore difficult to predict, and entail large degrees of uncertainty. Such uncertainty requires robust tools for management to sustain ecosystem goods and services and maintain resilient ecosystems. We propose an approach based on discontinuity theory that accounts for patterns and processes at distinct spatial and temporal scales, an inherent property of ecological systems. Discontinuity theory has not been applied in natural resource management and could therefore improve ecosystem management because it explicitly accounts for ecological complexity. Synthesis and applications . We highlight the application of discontinuity approaches for meeting management goals. Specifically, discontinuity approaches have significant potential to measure and thus understand the resilience of ecosystems, to objectively identify critical scales of space and time in ecological systems at which human impact might be most severe, to provide warning indicators of regime change, to help predict and understand biological invasions and extinctions and to focus monitoring efforts. Discontinuity theory can complement current approaches, providing a broader paradigm for ecological management and conservation.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2020

Keeping up with the times: Mapping range-wide habitat suitability for endangered species in a changing environment

Biologists and policy-makers have the difficult task of allocating limited resources to habitat conservation and management for endangered species in the face of changing environmental conditions. Satellite remote sensing can inform conservation because it is an efficient means to obtain environmental data over broad spatial and temporal extents. Yet, the challenges of accessing, processing, and analyzing remote sensing data hinder wider application of these techniques in conservation planning. We used Landsat data and hierarchical statistical models to link satellite-derived habitat measurements with abundance of endangered Yuma Ridgway's rails ( Rallus obsoletus yumanensis ) within the Lower Colorado River Basin and Salton Sink, USA. We addressed many of the challenges facing the application of remote sensing techniques by using the web-based, freely-available Google Earth Engine to process Landsat datasets, apply habitat models, and generate maps to predict habitat suitability at a fine spatial grain (30 m) across the range of the species. These maps are shareable, interactive, and easy to update annually as habitat conditions change using a Google Earth Engine App we developed. Thus, we provide a framework for building habitat suitability models and maps to help target adaptive habitat management over broad extents for sensitive species, enabling biologists to improve conservation and restoration efforts regularly as conditions change in highly variable ecosystems. We demonstrate this approach for Yuma Ridgway's rails, but our methods for merging hierarchical statistical models with open-source mapping software to describe spatial-temporal heterogeneity in habitat quality are applicable to any species, and are especially helpful to species inhabiting highly variable ecosystems.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗
USGS2026

Assessing future hydrologic extremes using an integrated hydrology and river operations model in the Russian River watershed

Study region The Russian River watershed, situated in coastal, northern California, experiences hydrologic extremes, including periodic droughts and flooding. Water managers are working to maintain sustainable water supplies and environmental flows, while mitigating flood risks. Study focus This paper introduces an integrated hydrology and river operations model for the Russian River watershed. This model is distinct from models in previous studies because it represents surface-groundwater interactions and uses climate forcings to estimate dynamic water use demands that are superimposed onto both reservoir operations and water supply constraints. The model was used to examine three historical (1990–2015) and eight future (2016–2099) water use and climate change scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region The direct connection between streams and aquifers facilitated both annual aquifer replenishment by high winter streamflows and streamflow depletion by groundwater wells (19 % of pumped groundwater in alluvial aquifers from stream leakage) during critical low flow periods. Simulated streamflow changes included 59 % longer and 54 % more severe streamflow droughts, 26 % lower seasonal low streamflows, and up to 125 % higher peak streamflows, averaged over future climate and water use scenarios, suggesting increased future flood and water availability risks. Results showed the importance of reservoir operations for mitigating the impacts of increased hydroclimatic volatility, despite a decrease in reservoir reliability at Lake Mendocino, suggesting that reservoir management may be used to decrease future risks.

California↗
USGS2009

Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2021

A science agenda to inform natural resource management decisions in an era of ecological transformation

Earth is experiencing widespread ecological transformation in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems that is attributable to directional environmental changes, especially intensifying climate change. To better steward ecosystems facing unprecedented and lasting change, a new management paradigm is forming, supported by a decision-oriented framework that presents three distinct management choices: resist, accept, or direct the ecological trajectory. To make these choices strategically, managers seek to understand the nature of the transformation that could occur if change is accepted while identifying opportunities to intervene to resist or direct change. In this article, we seek to inspire a research agenda for transformation science that is focused on ecological and social science and based on five central questions that align with the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework. Development of transformation science is needed to apply the RAD framework and support natural resource management and conservation on our rapidly changing planet.

BioScience↗
USGS2007

Preliminary Surficial Geology of the Dove Spring Off-Highway Vehicle Open Area, Mojave Desert, California

Introduction As part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring plan to evaluate the environmental impact of off-highway vehicle (OHV) use on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land in California, this report presents results of geologic studies in the Dove Spring OHV Open Area. This study produced baseline data, which when combined with historic and current patterns of land use, forms the basis for vegetation and wildlife monitoring designed to address the following questions: 1. Is the density and length of OHV routes increasing? 2. Are there cumulative effects of past and current OHV use associated with changes in the environmental integrity of soils, plants, and wildlife? 3. Is the spread of invasive species associated with levels of OHV use? 4. Is there a threshold of OHV impact that might be translated to management action by the BLM? The monitoring studies will be used to collect baseline environmental information to determine levels of environmental impact of OHV use. This approach will use a low-impact area as a proxy for pre-impact conditions (substituting space for time) to determine thresholds of OHV impacts beyond which environmental integrity is affected. Indicators of environmental integrity will emphasize factors that are fundamental to ecosystem structure and function and likely to be sensitive to OHV impacts. Surficial geology is studied because material properties such as texture and chemistry strongly control soil moisture and nutrient availability and therefore affect plant growth and distribution. An understanding of surficial geology can be used to predict and extrapolate soil properties and improve understanding of vegetation assemblages and their distribution. In the present study, vegetation associations may be examined as a function of surficial geology as well as other environmental variables such as slope, aspect, NRCS (National Resources Conservation Service) soil classification, elevation, and land-use history. Ground measurements of vegetation, biological soil crusts, compaction, and other information may be correlated with land use to identify possible ecological thresholds in OHV use that require monitoring. Surficial geology is relevant for several other studies of OHV impact, such as soil compaction, dust emissions, and acceleration of erosion. Compaction, reduced infiltration, and accelerated erosion have been documented in Dove Spring Canyon because of OHV use (Snyder and others, 1976) and elsewhere in the Mojave Desert (e.g., Webb, 1983; Langdon, 2000). A surficial geologic map enables the use of geomorphic process models, which when combined with measured soil properties, such as texture, nutrient chemistry, and bulk density, allows spatial extrapolation of the properties. Maps can be produced that predict compaction susceptibility, moisture conditions, dust emissions, flood hazards, and erodibility, among other applications.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Environmental drivers and spatial patterns of antibiotic-resistant, enteric coliforms across a forest–urban riverscape

Antibiotic resistant bacteria are prevalent environmental contaminants in freshwaters, and antibiotic resistance genes circulate throughout the urban water cycle. The increase of antibiotic resistant pathogens threatens public health through direct and indirect exposure, and natural resource managers need information on the spatial patterns of antibiotic resistant bacteria and environmental factors associated with their distribution to improve water quality monitoring and to better assess human, animal, and environmental health risks. We collected water and epilithic biofilm samples and measured physicochemical environmental variables at 29 sites distributed longitudinally in the Green-Duwamish River basin, Washington, USA. We characterized catchment-wide patterns of gram-negative fecal indicator bacteria and hypothesized that the presence of antibiotic resistance would be associated with environmental heterogeneity, bacterial primary ecology, stream compartment, and stream type. Antibiotic resistance was determined by microbial growth on selective media supplemented with 3 different antibiotics (ampicillin, chloramphenicol, or tetracycline). Phenotypic antibiotic resistance was positively associated with disturbance, but resistance to at least 1 antibiotic was also detected in undeveloped river segments, with an 83% overall detection rate (i.e., 24 out of 29 sites, 17 in the mainstem and 7 in tributaries). The most probable number of Escherichia coli was associated with higher levels of antibiotic resistance of non- E. coli coliforms across the basin (ρ = 0.38, p < 0.01) but was not associated with antibiotic resistance of E. coli . Phenotypic resistance was highest among non- E. coli coliforms in the water column of tributaries draining moderately to extensively developed subcatchments. Generalized linear mixed-effects model results showed that 18% of the variance in presence of antibiotic resistance was explained by the fixed effects (summed CV across environmental variables, stream type, primary ecology, and stream compartment), and when a spatial random effect was included, the model explained 27% of the variance. Our study provides new evidence that environmental factors and bacterial primary ecology are important underlying factors associated with spatial patterns of antibiotic resistant enteric coliforms. We used macroecological concepts and a riverscape approach to characterize the distribution of antibiotic resistance with methods applicable to municipalities.

Freshwater Science↗
USGS2021

Towards improved environmental modeling outcomes: Enabling low-cost access to high-dimensional, geostatistical-based decision-support analyses

Computer models of environmental systems routinely inform decision making for water resource management. In this context, quantifying uncertainty in the important simulated outputs, and reducing uncertainty through assimilating historic system-state observations, is as important as the numerical model. However, implementing high-dimensional and stochastic workflows are challenging, often requiring that practitioners have theoretical and practical understanding of several advanced topics. Worse, implementing these important analyses can take substantial time and effort. This additional effort is often cited as justification for postponing, or even forgoing, these analyses. Herein, we present scripting tools to facilitate the efficient and repeatable construction of high-dimensional, geostatistical-based PEST interfaces, including uncertainty analyses. As demonstrated, these tools can be applied with minimal effort to a model with varied temporal and spatial discretization. Ultimately, these tools can enable low-cost access to valuable decision-support analyses earlier and more frequently during the modeling workflow.

Environmental Modelling & Software↗
USGS2020

An interactive data visualization framework for exploring geospatial environmental datasets and model predictions

With the rise of large-scale environmental models comes new challenges for how we best utilize this information in research, management and decision making. Interactive data visualizations can make large and complex datasets easier to access and explore, which can lead to knowledge discovery, hypothesis formation and improved understanding. Here, we present a web-based interactive data visualization framework, the Interactive Catchment Explorer (ICE), for exploring environmental datasets and model outputs. Using a client-based architecture, the ICE framework provides a highly interactive user experience for discovering spatial patterns, evaluating relationships between variables and identifying specific locations using multivariate criteria. Through a series of case studies, we demonstrate the application of the ICE framework to datasets and models associated with three separate research projects covering different regions in North America. From these case studies, we provide specific examples of the broader impacts that tools like these can have, including fostering discussion and collaboration among stakeholders and playing a central role in the iterative process of data collection, analysis and decision making. Overall, the ICE framework demonstrates the potential benefits and impacts of using web-based interactive data visualization tools to place environmental datasets and model outputs directly into the hands of stakeholders, managers, decision makers and other researchers.

Water↗
USGS2018

Biophysical assessment for indemnity selection of Federal Lands in Colorado

Information on the biophysical features of Federal lands identified as suitable for transfer to the State of Colorado was requested by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). This information is intended for use in conducting an Environmental Assessment prior to the transfer of ownership (conveyance) to the State. The Colorado State Land Board filed a selective application to obtain public land and mineral estate in lieu of lands to which the State of Colorado was entitled but did not receive at the time of statehood. To address this legal obligation, 339 parcels of Federal lands (organized into 89 indemnity units [IUs]), currently under management by the BLM, have been identified as suitable for transfer to the State. The IUs include 23,130 acres of surface and mineral estate and 6,150 acres of mineral estate only. The specific land parcels to be transferred to the State will be finalized after an Environmental Assessment and other evaluations are completed. To provide the biophysical information necessary for conducting a future Environmental Assessment of the potential effects of the proposed land transfer, information on ecological communities, soil characteristics, and land use was summarized at three levels: (1) all of Colorado, (2) lands under the jurisdiction of the BLM, and (3) the 89 IUs. Information was also synthesized and summarized for 179 plant and animal species or subspecies of management concern to evaluate which species had the potential for occurrence on IUs. Datasets summarized for Colorado and for indemnity units and methodological details for all data summaries are provided in U.S. Geological Survey data releases available online at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7GT5MGV and https://doi.org/10.5066/F7C24VQ0 .

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Spatial variation of eDNA detection across an invasion gradient for invasive species monitoring programs

Spatial and temporal distribution data provide critical information for invasive species management. For example, distribution data can help managers with early detections and guiding other response actions. Environmental DNA (eDNA)-based sampling exists as one tool for monitoring invasive species. As part of bigheaded carp Hypophthalmichthys spp. monitoring efforts in the Illinois River, USA, we compared eDNA-based sampling results at multiple habitats across an invasion gradient in 2015. Greater densities of carp occurred downriver in the Illinois River and lower densities occurred upriver. We sampled from five locations along this gradient and from three habitat types (backwater, main channel, and shoreline) within each location. We sampled each location in April and June. A priori , we hypothesized that more eDNA detections would occur downriver, where higher densities of carp occur; that more eDNA detections would occur in backwater habitats compared to areas of the river with more fish movement; and that more eDNA detections would occur in April, because bigheaded carps are thought to use our sampling areas more during the spring. We compared the proportion of samples positive across this gradient, the habitat type, and the two sampling time periods. The most downriver location had the highest proportion of samples with eDNA detections, the backwater habitats had the highest proportion of samples with eDNA detections, and April had more positive detections than June. Our results highlight the importance of sampling across multiple habitat types and across time to gain a clear understanding of distribution when using eDNA-based sampling. Thus, being cognizant of the interactions between seasonal habitat use and eDNA-based detections is important for managers who rely upon eDNA-based monitoring.

Illinois↗
USGS2002

Threats to desert tortoise populations: a critical review of the literature

Decision in resource management are generally based on a combination of sociopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, and may be biased by personal values. These three components often contradict each other resulting in controversy. Controversies can usually be reduced when solid scientific evidence is used to support or refute a decision. However, it is important to recognize that data often do little to alter antagonists' positions when differences in values are the bases if the dispute. But, supporting data can make the decision more defensible, both legally and ethically, especially if the data supporting all opposing viewpoints are included in the decision-making process. Resource management decisions must be made using the best scientific information currently available. However, scientific data vary in two important measures of quality: reliability and validity. The reliability of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observations or conclusion can be repeated. Validity of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observation or conclusion reflects what actually occurs in nature. How the data are collected strongly affects the reliability of validity of ecological conclusions that can be made. Research data potentially relevant to management come from different sources, and the source often provides clues to the reliability and, to a certain extent, validity of data. Understanding the quality of data being used to make management decisions helps to separate the philosophical or value-based aspects of arguments from the objective ones, thus helping to clarify the decisions and judgments that need to be made. The West Mojave Plan is a multispecies, bioregional plan for the management of natural resources within a 9.4 million-acre area of the Mojave Desert in California. The plan addresses the legal requirements for the recovery of the desert tortoise ( Gopherus agazzizii ), a threatened species, but also covers an additional approximately 80 species of plants and animals assigned special status by the Bureau of Land Management, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and California Department of Fish and Game. Within the planning area, 28 separate jurisdictions (counties, cities, towns, military installations, etc.) seek programmatic prescriptions that will facilitate streamlined environmental review, result in expedited authorization for development projects, and protect listed and unlisted species into the foreseeable future to avoid or minimize conflicts between proposed development and species' conservation and recovery. All of the scientific data available concerning the biology and management of these approximately 80 species and their habitats must be evaluated to develop a scientifically credible plan. This document provides an overview and evaluation of the knowledge of the major threats to the persistence and recovery of desert tortoise populations. I was specifically asked to evaluate the scientific veracity of the data and reports available. I summarize the data presently available with particular focus on the West Mojave Desert, evaluate the scientific integrity of the data. and identify major gaps in the available knowledge. I do not attempt to provide in-depth details on each study or threat; for more details I encourage the reader to consult the individual papers or reports city throughout this report (many of which are available at most university libraries and at the West Mojave Plan office in Riverside, California). I also do not attempt to characterize or evaluate the past or present management actions, except where they have direct bearing on evaluation of threats, nor do I attempt, for the most part, to acquire, generate, or evaluate new or existing, but uninterpreted data.

California↗
USGS2025

Comparison of two benthic assemblage sampling gears for use on intertidal oyster reefs in Louisiana

Background Estuarine biodiversity plays a vital role in supporting ecosystem functions yet remains threatened by climate change and anthropogenic activity. Tracking and identifying estuarine biodiversity trends helps management ensure long-term provisions of human and environmental benefits by contributing to the estimation of habitat loss and the monitoring of restoration and conservation progress. However, the sampling gear and biodiversity metric used may indicate different conclusions, which can lead to uncertainty in the actual state of the ecosystem-level biodiversity. Sampling benthic biodiversity in complex estuarine habitats, such as oyster reefs, is particularly challenging because no one gear type captures entire target assemblages, and differences in gear efficiency on these complex habitats make comparisons across gear types challenging. Methods We investigated how estimates of oyster reef-associated benthic taxa abundance, richness, Pielou’s evenness, and Shannon-Wiener diversity differed across three Crassostrea virginica reefs in Louisiana between suction sampler and substrate tray sampling gears ( n = 6), and how gear influenced comparisons across reefs (3 reefs × 6 replicates × 2 gears). Results Abundance and richness were higher, and Pielou’s evenness was lower, in trays compared to suction samples at all reefs. Shannon-Wiener diversity was similar in suction samples and trays at two out of three reefs. Amphipod taxa were numerically dominant in trays, skewing the distribution of abundances and driving the reef assemblage differences between gears. Abundance and Shannon-Wiener diversity were similar across reefs within each gear. However, there were significant differences in richness across reefs in tray samples only, while evenness differed across reefs only in suction samples. Our results highlight that gear choices, along with biodiversity metrics tracked, can result in different conclusions in biodiversity trends, ultimately affecting conservation decisions and management.

Louisiana↗
USGS2013

2011 floods of the central United States

The Central United States experienced record-setting flooding during 2011, with floods that extended from headwater streams in the Rocky Mountains, to transboundary rivers in the upper Midwest and Northern Plains, to the deep and wide sand-bedded lower Mississippi River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of its mission, collected extensive information during and in the aftermath of the 2011 floods to support scientific analysis of the origins and consequences of extreme floods. The information collected for the 2011 floods, combined with decades of past data, enables scientists and engineers from the USGS to provide syntheses and scientific analyses to inform emergency managers, planners, and policy makers about life-safety, economic, and environmental-health issues surrounding flood hazards for the 2011 floods and future floods like it. USGS data, information, and scientific analyses provide context and understanding of the effect of floods on complex societal issues such as ecosystem and human health, flood-plain management, climate-change adaptation, economic security, and the associated policies enacted for mitigation. Among the largest societal questions is "How do we balance agricultural, economic, life-safety, and environmental needs in and along our rivers?" To address this issue, many scientific questions have to be answered including the following: * How do the 2011 weather and flood conditions compare to the past weather and flood conditions and what can we reasonably expect in the future for flood magnitudes? * What is the “natural” hydrology of these watersheds and how have they been changed? * How do rivers change during floods and what effects do they have on the natural and built environment: conversely, what effects do the natural and built environments have on rivers and floods? * Do floods contribute to the transport and fate of contaminants that affect human and ecosystem health? In an effort to help address these and other questions, USGS Professional Paper 1798 consists of independent but complementary chapters dealing with various scientific aspects of the 2011 floods in the Central United States.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2020

Parsing the effects of demography, climate, and management on recurrent brucellosis outbreaks in elk

1. Zoonotic pathogens can harm human health and well-being directly or by impacting livestock. Pathogens that spillover from wildlife can also impair conservation efforts if humans perceive wildlife as pests. Brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus, circulates in elk and bison herds of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and poses a risk to cattle and humans. Our goal was to understand the relative effects of climatic drivers, host demography, and management control programs on disease dynamics. 2. Using >20 years of serologic, demographic, and environmental data on brucellosis in elk, we built stochastic compartmental models to assess the influences of climate forcing, herd immunity, population turnover, and management interventions on pathogen transmission. Data were collected at feedgrounds visited in winter by free-ranging elk in Wyoming, USA. 3. Snowpack, hypothesized as a driver of elk aggregation and thus brucellosis transmission, was strongly correlated across feedgrounds. We expected this variable to drive synchronized disease dynamics across herds. Instead, we demonstrate asynchronous epizootics driven by variation in demographic rates. 4. We evaluated the effectiveness of test-and-slaughter of seropositive female elk at two feedgrounds. Test-and-slaughter temporarily reduced herd-level seroprevalence but likely reduced herd immunity while removing few infectious individuals, resulting in subsequent outbreaks once the intervention ceased. We simulated an alternative strategy of removing seronegative female elk and found it would increase herd immunity, yielding fewer infections. We evaluated a second experimental treatment wherein feeding density was reduced at one feedground, but we found no evidence for an effect despite a decade of implementation. 5. Synthesis and applications: Positive serostatus is often weakly correlated with infectiousness but is nevertheless used to make management decisions including lethal removal in wildlife disease systems. We show how this can have adverse consequences whereas efforts that maintain herd immunity can have longer-term protective effects. Climatic drivers may not result in synchronous disease dynamics across populations unless vital rates are also similar because demographic factors have a large influence on disease patterns.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗