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USGS2012

Dealing with incomplete and variable detectability in multi-year, multi-site monitoring of ecological populations

An ecological monitoring program should be viewed as a component of a larger framework designed to advance science and/or management, rather than as a stand-alone activity. Monitoring targets (the ecological variables of interest; e.g. abundance or occurrence of a species) should be set based on the needs of that framework (Nichols and Williams 2006; e.g. Chapters 2–4). Once such monitoring targets are set, the subsequent step in monitoring design involves consideration of the field and analytical methods that will be used to measure monitoring targets with adequate accuracy and precision. Long-term monitoring programs will involve replication of measurements over time, and possibly over space; that is, one location or each of multiple locations will be monitored multiple times, producing a collection of site visits (replicates). Clearly this replication is important for addressing spatial and temporal variability in the ecological resources of interest (Chapters 7–10), but it is worth considering how this replication can further be exploited to increase the effectiveness of monitoring. In particular, defensible monitoring of the majority of animal, and to a lesser degree plant, populations and communities will generally require investigators to account for imperfect detection (Chapters 4, 18). Raw indices of population state variables, such as abundance or occupancy (sensu MacKenzie et al. 2002), are rarely defensible when detection probabilities are < 1, because in those cases detection may vary over time and space in unpredictable ways. Myriad authors have discussed the risks inherent in making inference from monitoring data while failing to correct for differences in detection, resulting in indices that have an unknown relationship to the parameters of interest (e.g. Nichols 1992, Anderson 2001, MacKenzie et al. 2002, Williams et al. 2002, Anderson 2003, White 2005, Kéry and Schmidt 2008). While others have argued that indices may be preferable in some cases due to the challenges associated with estimating detection probabilities (e.g. McKelvey and Pearson 2001, Johnson 2008), we do not attempt to resolve this debate here. Rather, we are more apt to agree with MacKenzie and Kendall (2002) that the burden of proof ought to be on the assertion that detection probabilities are constant. Furthermore, given the wide variety of field methods available for estimating detection probabilities and the inability for an investigator to know, a priori, if detection probabilities will be constant over time and space, we believe that development of monitoring programs ought to include field and analytical methods to account for the imperfect detection of organisms.

Book chapter↗

USGS2018

Phylogeny and species traits predict bird detectability

Avian acoustic communication has resulted from evolutionary pressures and ecological constraints. We therefore expect that auditory detectability in birds might be predictable by species traits and phylogenetic relatedness. We evaluated the relationship between phylogeny, species traits, and field‐based estimates of the two processes that determine species detectability (singing rate and detection distance) for 141 bird species breeding in boreal North America. We used phylogenetic mixed models and cross‐validation to compare the relative merits of using trait data only, phylogeny only, or the combination of both to predict detectability. We found a strong phylogenetic signal in both singing rates and detection distances; however the strength of phylogenetic effects was less than expected under Brownian motion evolution. The evolution of behavioural traits that determine singing rates was found to be more labile, leaving more room for species to evolve independently, whereas detection distance was mostly determined by anatomy (i.e. body size) and thus the laws of physics. Our findings can help in disentangling how complex ecological and evolutionary mechanisms have shaped different aspects of detectability in boreal birds. Such information can greatly inform single‐ and multi‐species models but more work is required to better understand how to best correct possible biases in phylogenetic diversity and other community metrics.

Ecography↗

USGS2005

Riparian communities associated with Pacific Northwest headwater streams: Assemblages, processes, and uniqueness

Riparian areas of large streams provide important habitat to many species and control many instream processes — but is the same true for the margins of small streams? This review considers riparian areas alongside small streams in forested, mountainous areas of the Pacific Northwest and asks if there are fundamental ecological differences from larger streams and from other regions and if there are consequences for management from any differences. In the moist forests along many small streams of the Pacific Northwest, the contrast between the streamside and upslope forest is not as strong as that found in drier regions. Small streams typically lack floodplains, and the riparian area is often constrained by the hillslope. Nevertheless, riparian-associated organisms, some unique to headwater areas, are found along small streams. Disturbance of hillslopes and stream channels and microclimatic effects of streams on the riparian area provide great heterogeneity in processes and diversity of habitats. The tight coupling of the terrestrial riparian area with the aquatic system results from the closed canopy and high edge-to-area ratio for small streams. Riparian areas of the temperate, conifer dominated forests of the Pacific Northwest provide a unique environment. Forest management guidelines for small streams vary widely, and there has been little evaluation of the local or downstream consequences of forest practices along small streams.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2013

A multi-decade time series of kelp forest community structure at San Nicolas Island, California

San Nicolas Island is surrounded by broad areas of shallow subtidal habitat, characterized by dynamic kelp forest communities that undergo dramatic and abrupt shifts in community composition. Although these reefs are fished, the physical isolation of the island means that they receive less impact from human activities than most reefs in Southern California, making San Nicolas an ideal place to evaluate alternative theories about the dynamics of these communities. Here we present monitoring data from seven sampling stations surrounding the island, including data on fish, invertebrate, and algal abundance. These data are unusual among subtidal monitoring data sets in that they combine relatively frequent sampling (twice per year) with an exceptionally long time series (since 1980). Other outstanding qualities of the data set are the high taxonomic resolution captured and the monitoring of permanent quadrats and swaths where the history of the community structure at specific locations has been recorded through time. Finally, the data span a period that includes two of the strongest ENSO events on record, a major shift in the Pacific decadal oscillation, and the reintroduction of sea otters to the island in 1987 after at least 150 years of absence. These events provide opportunities to evaluate the effects of bottom-up forcing, top-down control, and physical disturbance on shallow rocky reef communities.

California↗

USGS2021

Hawai‘i forest review: Synthesizing the ecology, evolution, and conservation of a model system

As the most remote archipelago in the world, the Hawaiian Islands are home to a highly endemic and disharmonic biota that has fascinated biologists for centuries. Forests are the dominant terrestrial biome in Hawai‘i, spanning complex, heterogeneous climates across substrates that vary tremendously in age, soil structure, and nutrient availability. Species richness is low in Hawaiian forests compared to other tropical forests, as a consequence of dispersal limitation from continents and adaptive radiations in only some lineages, and forests are dominated by the widespread Metrosideros species complex. Low species richness provides a relatively tractable model system for studies of community assembly, local adaptation, and species interactions. Moreover, Hawaiian forests provide insights into predicted patterns of evolution on islands, revealing that while some evidence supports “island syndromes,” there are exceptions to them all. For example, Hawaiian plants are not as a whole less defended against herbivores, less dispersible, more conservative in resource use, or more slow-growing than their continental relatives. Clearly, more work is needed to understand the drivers, sources, and constraints on phenotypic variation among Hawaiian species, including both widespread and rare species, and to understand the role of this variation for ecological and evolutionary processes, which will further contribute to conservation of this unique biota. Today, Hawaiian forests are among the most threatened globally. Resource management failures – the proliferation of non-native species in particular – have led to devastating declines in native taxa and resulted in dominance by novel species assemblages. Conservation and restoration of Hawaiian forests now rely on managing threats including climate change, ongoing species introductions, novel pathogens, lost mutualists, and altered ecosystem dynamics through the use of diverse tools and strategies grounded in basic ecological, evolutionary, and biocultural principles. The future of Hawaiian forests thus depends on the synthesis of ecological and evolutionary research, which will continue to inform future conservation and restoration practices.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Accommodating the role of site memory in dynamic species distribution models

First-order dynamic occupancy models (FODOMs) are a class of state-space model in which the true state (occurrence) is observed imperfectly. An important assumption of FODOMs is that site dynamics only depend on the current state and that variations in dynamic processes are adequately captured with covariates or random effects. However, it is often difficult to understand and/or measure the covariates that generate ecological data, which are typically spatiotemporally correlated. Consequently, the non-independent error structure of correlated data causes underestimation of parameter uncertainty and poor ecological inference. Here, we extend the FODOM framework with a second-order Markov process to accommodate site memory when covariates are not available. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inference about site occupancy, colonization, extinction, turnover, and detection probabilities. We present a series of simulations to illustrate the data requirements and model performance. We then applied our modeling framework to 13 yr of data from an amphibian community in southern Arizona, USA. In this analysis, we found residual temporal autocorrelation of population processes for most species, even after accounting for long-term drought dynamics. Our approach represents a valuable advance in obtaining inference on population dynamics, especially as they relate to metapopulations.

Arizona↗

USGS2024

Status and trends of the Lake Huron prey fish community, 1976-2023

The U. S. Geological Survey-Great Lakes Science Center has monitored annual changes in the offshore (depth >9m) prey fish community of Lake Huron since 1973. Monitoring of prey fish populations in Lake Huron is based on a bottom trawl survey that targets demersal (benthic) species and an acoustic-midwater trawl survey that targets pelagic species and life stages. In 2023, Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ) accounted for 77% of the main basin biomass in bottom trawls and 86% of the main basin biomass in the acoustics survey. Despite this sustained importance of native species in the main basin, species diversity is below desired levels. Bloater in the main basin has exhibited population growth and strong recruitment in recent years, and Cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) has exhibited increased biomass in the North Channel since 2015. In contrast non-native Alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), whose population collapsed in 2004 and has not recovered, were less than 1% of fish biomass in 2023. Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) accounted for 7% of the main basin biomass in bottom trawls and 22% of the main basin biomass in the acoustics survey. Despite remaining the second-most abundant prey species in the main basin, Rainbow Smelt has not shown appreciable increases in biomass despite recent strong year classes. Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ) increased by 47% in 2023 and were 33% of the long-term average. Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ) increased to 60% of the long-term average but remained rare in bottom trawl catches. In contrast, biomass of Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), a non-native species similar ecologically to the sculpin species, remained near the record high biomass reached in 2022. Current lake conditions characterized by ongoing oligotrophication seem to favor native coregonines over non-native fishes. Use of complementary surveys (bottom trawl, acoustics) remains important for evaluating prey fish status in Lake Huron, where prey fish community dynamics vary by basin and prey fish responses to changing environmental conditions depend on species and/or habitat.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2025

Lake Superior fish community and fisheries, 2001–2022: An era of stability

Lake Superior is the least anthropogenically impacted of the Laurentian Great Lakes ecosystems, yet dramatic changes to the fish community are evident. Previous published works chronicled those changes and the efforts to rehabilitate the fish community through the year 2000. Here, we review through the year 2022, where post-rehabilitation stability was driven by lean lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush namaycush) as the most abundant piscivore in nearshore waters, siscowet lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush siscowet) as the most abundant piscivore in offshore waters, and a healthy, intact assemblage of native prey species, which created ecological redundancies and helped stabilize the food web. Stocking of non-native salmonines was reduced 74%, and populations of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch) were maintained through natural reproduction. Despite reduced stocking, yield from recreational fisheries was stable. Likewise, developments in population modeling led to evaluations and refinement of management strategies that helped create stability for lake trout, lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ), and cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) fisheries. With lake trout rehabilitation achieved, focus shifted toward rehabilitation of native brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ), and walleye ( Sander vitreus ). Despite continued control efforts, sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) abundance increased considerably, and estimates of fish killed by lampreys averaged 2.65 million kg annually. Environmental changes have benefited sea lampreys and fostered thermal habitats more suitable to non-native organisms, posing new challenges for managers and researchers. Nevertheless, the post-rehabilitation stability in the contemporary fish community will help provide resilience to future perturbations in the ecosystem.

Lake Superior↗

USGS2005

White-tailed deer ecology and management on Fire Island

Deer populations have grown dramatically on Fire Island National Seashore (FIlS) since 1983. Trend data reveal a dichotomy in deer dynamics. In the eastern half of the island, deer density appears to have stabilized between 25-35 deer/km2. In the western half of the island, deer densities are 3-4 times as high in residential communities. Concomitant with that increase has been a general decline in physical stature of some animals, visible impacts on island vegetation, especially in the Sunken Forest, and a perceived increase in the frequency of human and deer interactions. Intensive research on FIlS has shown that deer occupy relatively predictable home ranges throughout the year, but can and do move up and down the island. Impacts of deer on vegetation are most dramatic in the Sunken Forest. Most obvious are the effects of browsing on the herb layer of the Sunken Forest. The least obvious, but perhaps more significant impact is the stark lack of regeneration of canopy tree species since about 1970, which coincides with the initiation of the deer population irruption. A number of herbs and shrubs have been greatly reduced in the understory, and their propagules from the soil. Deer do not readily transmit the bacterium that causes Lyme disease to other organisms, but deer are important hosts for adult ticks which underscores their importance in the transmission pathway of the disease to humans. Deer on FIlS, while occasionally docile, are still wild animals and should be treated as such. Some animals are relatively unafraid of humans due to the absence of predation and a lack of harassment. This in turn has contributed to a longstanding tradition of feeding deer by many residents and visitors, particularly in western portions of the island. Feeding affects both the behavior and population dynamics of deer inhabiting Fire Island. Recent efforts to reduce deer feeding by visitors and residents have been very effective. Ongoing experiments with Porcine Zona Pellucida immunocontraception demonstrate some promise of this technology as a population management tool.. Success appears to be linked directly to factors affecting access to deer, which vary considerably among treatment locations. Continued high National Park Service visibility among communities in the form of interpretive programs, extension and outreach activities, and continued support of research and monitoring of deer and their effects on island biota are keys to successful resolution of persistent issues.

Technical Report↗

USGS2011

Baseline ecological risk assessment of the Calcasieu Estuary, Louisiana: 3. An evaluation of the risks to benthic invertebrates associated with exposure to contaminated sediments

The sediments in the Calcasieu Estuary are contaminated with a wide variety of chemicals of potential concern (COPCs), including heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, phthalates, chlorinated benzenes, and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans. The sources of these COPCs include both point and non-point source discharges. As part of a baseline ecological risk assessment, the risks to benthic invertebrates posed by exposure to sediment-associated COPCs were assessed using five lines of evidence, including whole-sediment chemistry, pore-water chemistry, whole-sediment toxicity, pore-water toxicity, and benthic invertebrate community structure. The results of this assessment indicated that exposure to whole sediments and/or pore water from the Calcasieu Estuary generally posed low risks to benthic invertebrate communities (i.e., risks were classified as low for 68% of the sampling locations investigated). However, incremental risks to benthic invertebrates (i.e., compared with those associated with exposure to conditions in reference areas) were indicated for 32% of the sampling locations within the estuary. Of the three areas of concern (AOCs) investigated, the risks to benthic invertebrates were highest in the Bayou d'Inde AOC; risks were generally lower in the Upper Calcasieu River AOC and Middle Calcasieu River AOC. The areas showing the highest risks to sediment-dwelling organisms were generally located in the vicinity of point source discharges of COPCs. These results provided risk managers with the information required to make decisions regarding the need for remedial actions at the site.

Louisiana↗

USGS2009

Experimental removal of wetland emergent vegetation leads to decreased methylmercury production in surface sediment

We performed plant removal (devegetation) experiments across a suite of ecologically diverse wetland settings (tidal salt marshes, river floodplain, rotational rice fields, and freshwater wetlands with permanent or seasonal flooding) to determine the extent to which the presence (or absence) of actively growing plants influences the activity of the Hg(II)-methylating microbial community and the availability of Hg(II) to those microbes. Vegetated control plots were paired with neighboring devegetated plots in which photosynthetic input was terminated 4–8 months prior to measurements, through clipping aboveground biomass, severing belowground connections, and shading the sediment surface to prevent regrowth. Across all wetlands, devegetation decreased the activity of the Hg(II)-methylating microbial community (k meth ) by 38%, calculated MeHg production potential (MP) rates by 36%, and pore water acetate concentration by 78%. Decreases in MP were associated with decreases in microbial sulfate reduction in salt marsh settings. In freshwater agricultural wetlands, decreases in MP were related to indices of microbial iron reduction. Sediment MeHg concentrations were also significantly lower in devegetated than in vegetated plots in most wetland settings studied. Devegetation effects were correlated with live root density (percent volume) and were most profound in vegetated sites with higher initial pore water acetate concentrations. Densely rooted wetlands had the highest rates of microbial Hg(II)-methylation activity but often the lowest concentrations of bioavailable reactive Hg(II). We conclude that the exudation of labile organic carbon (e.g., acetate) by plants leads to enhanced microbial sulfate and iron reduction activity in the rhizosphere, which results in high rates of microbial Hg(II)-methyation and high MeHg concentrations in wetland sediment.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2013

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS1995

Sea otters in the northern Pacific Ocean

About 250 years ago sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) were distributed continuously from central Baja California, north and west along the Pacific Rim to Machatka Peninsula in Russia, and south along the Kuril Island to northern Japan (Kenyon 1969; Fig. 1a). Several hundred thousand sea otters may have occurred in the north Pacific region when commercial hunting began in the 18th century (Riedman and Estes 1990). At least two attributes of the sea otter have influenced humans, likely for as long as they have resided together along the coast of the north Pacific Ocean. First, sea otters rely on a dense fur, among the finest in the world, for insulation in the cold waters of the Pacific Ocean. The demand for sea otter fur led to their near extinction in the 19th century. The fur harvest, begun about 1740 and halted by international treaty in 1911, left surviving colonies, each likely numbering less than a few hundred animals, in California, south-central Alaska, and the Aleutian, Medney, and Kuril Islands (Fig. 1a). These individuals provided the nucleus for the recovery of the species. Today more than 100,000 sea otters occur throughout about 75% of their original range (fig. 1b). Immigration has resulted in near-complete occupation of the Aleutian and Kuril archipelagos and the Alaska peninsula. Successful translocations have resulted in viable populations in southeast Alaska, Washington, and British Columbia. Large amounts of unoccupied habitat remain along the coasts of Russia, Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The second potential source of conflict between sea otters and humans is that sea otters prey on and often limit some benthic invertebrate populations. Because some of these invertebrates are aso used by humans (Estes and VanBlaricom 1985), human perceptions about the effects of sea otter foraging on invertebrates sometimes differ. By limiting populations of herbivorous invertebrates ( e.g. , sea urchins [Echinoidea]) otters help maintain the integrity of kelp forest communities. At the same time, sea otter predation on other marine invertebrates can lead to direct competition with humans for resources. These interactions add complex dimensions to the conservation and management of sea otters, in large part because of wide-ranging social, ecological, and economic consequences of sea otter foraging. Long-term data on abundance and distribution are available for relatively few sea otter populations. Here we summarize such data from three populations: Being Island, Russia; Prince William Sound, Alaska; and Olympic Peninsula, Washington. The Bering Island population resulted from natural emigration and represents complete recovery. Prince William Sounds represents near recovery of a remnant population, whereas the Washington population was established via translocations from Alaska and is just beginning to recover. We will compare growth rates and current status among these populations. Because of its unique status and growth characteristics, the California sea otter is not treated in this article.

Book chapter↗

USGS2003

Ecological effects of nitrogen deposition in the western United States

In the western United States vast acreages of land are exposed to low levels of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, with interspersed hotspots of elevated N deposition downwind of large, expanding metropolitan centers or large agricultural operations. Biological response studies in western North America demonstrate that some aquatic and terrestrial plant and microbial communities are significantly altered by N deposition. Greater plant productivity is counterbalanced by biotic community changes and deleterious effects on sensitive organisms (lichens and phytoplankton) that respond to low inputs of N (3 to 8 kilograms N per hectare per year). Streamwater nitrate concentrations are elevated in high-elevation catchments in Colorado and are unusually high in southern California and in some chaparral catchments in the southwestern Sierra Nevada. Chronic N deposition in the West is implicated in increased fire frequency in some areas and habitat alteration for threatened species. Between hotspots, N deposition is too low to cause noticeable effects or has not been studied.

BioScience↗

USGS1997

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis does not explain fire and diversity pattern in fynbos

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis is a widely accepted generalization regarding patterns of species diversity, but may not hold true where fire is the disturbance. In the Mediterranean-climate shrublands of South Africa, called fynbos, fire is the most importance disturbance and a controlling factor in community dynamics. The intermediate disturbance hypothesis states that diversity will be highest at sites that have had an intermediate frequency of disturbance and will be lower at sites that have experienced very high or very low disturbance frequencies. Measures of diversity are sensitive to scale; therefore, we compared species richness for three fire regimes in South African mountain fynbos to test the intermediate disturbance hypothesis over different spatial scales from 1 m 2 to 0.1 hectares. Species diversity response to fire frequency was highly scale-dependent, but the relationship between species diversity and disturbance frequency was opposite that predicted by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. At the largest spatial scales, species diversity was highest at the least frequently burned sites (40 years between fires) and lowest at the sites of moderate (15 to 26 years between fires) and high fire frequency (alternating four and six year fire cycle). Community heterogeneity, measured both as the slope of the species-area curve for a site and as the mean dissimilarity in species composition among subplots within a site, correlated with species diversity at the largest spatial scales. Community heterogeneity was highest at the least frequently burned sites and lowest at the sites that experienced an intermediate fire frequency.

Hottentot’s Holland Nature Reserve, Western Cape P↗

USGS2017

Alternative pathways to landscape transformation: Invasive grasses, burn severity and fire frequency in arid ecosystems

Arid ecosystems are often vulnerable to transformation to invasive-dominated states following fire, but data on persistence of these states are sparse. The grass/fire cycle is a feedback process between invasive annual grasses and fire frequency that often leads to the formation of alternative vegetation states dominated by the invasive grasses. However, other components of fire regimes, such as burn severity, also have the potential to produce long-term vegetation transformations. Our goal was to evaluate the influence of both fire frequency and burn severity on the transformation of woody-dominated communities to communities dominated by invasive grasses in major elevation zones of the Mojave Desert of western North America. We used a chronosequence design to collect data on herbaceous and woody cover at 229 unburned reference plots and 578 plots that burned between 1972 and 2010. We stratified the plots by elevation zone (low, mid, high), fire frequency (1–3 times) and years post-fire (YPF; 1–5, 6–10, 11–20 and 21–40 YPF). Burn severity for each plot was estimated by the difference normalized burn ratio. We identified two broad post-fire successional pathways. One was an outcome of fire frequency, resulting in a strong potential transformation via the grass/fire cycle. The second pathway was driven by burn severity, the critical aspect being that long-term transformation of a community could occur from just one fire in areas that burned at high or sometimes moderate severity. Dominance by invasive grasses was most likely to occur in low-and high-elevation communities; cover of native herbaceous species was often greater than that of invasive grasses in the mid-elevation zone. Synthesis . Invasive grasses can dominate a site that burned only one time in many decades at high severity, or a site that burned at low severity but multiple times in the same time period. However, high burn severity may predispose areas to more frequent fire because they have relatively high cover of invasive annual grass, suggesting burn severity and fire frequency have both independent and synergistic effects. Resilience in vegetation structure following fire in many arid communities may be limited to a narrow window of low burn severity in areas that have not burned in many decades.

Mojave Desert↗

USGS2008

Importance of sampling design and analysis in animal population studies: a comment on Sergio et al

1. The use of predators as indicators and umbrellas in conservation has been criticized. In the Trentino region, Sergio et al. (2006; hereafter SEA) counted almost twice as many bird species in quadrats located in raptor territories than in controls. However, SEA detected astonishingly few species. We used contemporary Swiss Breeding Bird Survey data from an adjacent region and a novel statistical model that corrects for overlooked species to estimate the expected number of bird species per quadrat in that region. 2. There are two anomalies in SEA which render their results ambiguous. First, SEA detected on average only 6.8 species, whereas a value of 32 might be expected. Hence, they probably overlooked almost 80% of all species. Secondly, the precision of their mean species counts was greater in two-thirds of cases than in the unlikely case that all quadrats harboured exactly the same number of equally detectable species. This suggests that they detected consistently only a biased, unrepresentative subset of species. 3. Conceptually, expected species counts are the product of true species number and species detectability p. Plenty of factors may affect p, including date, hour, observer, previous knowledge of a site and mobbing behaviour of passerines in the presence of predators. Such differences in p between raptor and control quadrats could have easily created the observed effects. Without a method that corrects for such biases, or without quantitative evidence that species detectability was indeed similar between raptor and control quadrats, the meaning of SEA's counts is hard to evaluate. Therefore, the evidence presented by SEA in favour of raptors as indicator species for enhanced levels of biodiversity remains inconclusive. 4. Synthesis and application. Ecologists should pay greater attention to sampling design and analysis in animal population estimation. Species richness estimation means sampling a community. Samples should be representative for the community studied and the sampling fraction among communities compared should be the same on average, otherwise formal estimation approaches must be applied to avoid misleading inference.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2018

Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). At this resolution, the climate change experiment allows for deep convection in model integrations, which is an important consideration for sub-tropical regions in general, and on islands with steep precipitation gradients in particular that strongly influence local ecological processes and the provision of ecosystem services. Projected precipitation change for this region of the Caribbean is simulated for the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 climate-forcing scenario relative to the late twentieth century (1986–2005). The results show that by the mid-twenty-first century, there is an overall rainfall reduction over the island for all seasons compared to the recent climate but with diminished mid-summer drought (MSD) in the northwestern parts of the island. Importantly, extreme rainfall events on sub-daily and daily time scales also become slightly less frequent in the projected mid-twenty-first-century climate over most regions of the island.

Puerto Rico↗