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Results for “Climate Change Responses”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 1,387 records · Page 77Linked to original sources

USGS1993

Fluvial response to late Quaternary climatic fluctuations, central Kobuk Valley, northwestern Alaska

Much of northwestern Alaska remained unglaciated during the Pleistocene and thus offers a favorable setting for examining long-term records of high-latitude geological and biological change. Epiguruk, a large cut bank 3.5 km long and up to 36 m high on the Kobuk River south of the Brooks Range in eastern Beringia, exposes complex sedimentary successions representing cycles of upper Quaternary alluviation and eolian sedimentation, downcutting, and soil formation. A rich record of plants and mammals is also preserved in the section. Deposits of fluvial channels and flood plains, eolian dunes, sand sheets, loess, and ponds, as well as organic soils (Histosols) are represented. Parallel-bedded fine sand and coarse silt couplets that commonly contain root structures, ripple cross-lamination, and silt drapes are flood-plain sediments apparently deposited at the interface of fluvial and eolian environments. Multiple fluvial-to-eolian depositional sequences were caused by influx of eolian sediment to the river from intermittently active dune fields south of the Kobuk River. Alluviation in the Kobuk Valley was coeval with glaciation in the Brooks Range, whereas downcutting occurred during interstadials when dune stabilization limited sediment supply. The depositional model developed at Epiguruk may be useful in interpreting some of the widespread subhorizontally stratified late-glacial deposits of Europe and North America.

Alaska↗

USGS1995

Hydrology of Sanpete Valley, Sanpete and Juab Counties, Utah, and simulation of ground-water flow in the valley-fill aquifer

The surface-and ground-water hydrology of Sanpete Valley and the San Pitch River drainage basin, Sanpete and Juab Counties, Utah, was studied to define the current conditions of the hydrologic system, to detect causes for downstream changes in water quality in the San Pitch River and in areas of high concentration of dissolved solids in ground water, and to determine the possible effects of present changes in irrigation methods and possible future increased ground-water withdrawals from the valley-fill aquifer. Measurements of water levels in wells show responses to climatic variation. The dissolved-solids concentration of water from the San Pitch River increases downstream. Principal areas of ground water with high concentrations of dissolved solids occur downgradient from outcrops of rocks of Jurassic and Tertiary age. One local-scale ground-water flow system discharges small volumes of water with high concentrations of dissolved solids to the San Pitch River southwest of Ephraim. Although ground water occurs in both valley-fill and consolidated-rock aquifers in the study area, more hydrologic information is available for the valley-fill aquifer. The valley-fill aquifer consists primarily of fine-grained silt and clay in the center of the valley and coarser deposits along the margin of the valley. Surface- water inflow to the valley is estimated to be about 152,000 acre-feet per year. Recharge to the valley-fill aquifer is estimated to be between 74,000 and 103,000 acre-feet per year. A three-dimensional, ground-water flow model was developed to better define present ground-water conditions and to determine possible effects of future changes in ground-water withdrawals from the valley-fill aquifer. Computer simulation results indicate the possibility of recharge to the valleyfill aquifer as subsurface inflow from consolidated-rock aquifers. Simulation of water-level changes during the late 1980's indicate that some of the declines could have been caused by conversion from flood irrigation to sprinkler irrigation. Predictive simulations using three times the average pumping rates indicate possible water-level declines of as much as 70 feet.

Utah↗

USGS2022

Hydroclimate response of spring ecosystems to a two-stage Younger Dryas event in western North America

The Younger Dryas (YD) climate event is the preeminent example of abrupt climate change in the recent geologic past. Climate conditions during the YD were spatially complex, and high-resolution sediment cores in the North Atlantic, western Europe, and East Asia have revealed it unfolded in two distinct stages, including an initial stable climatic period between ~ 12.9 and 12.2 ka associated with a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and a second phase characterized by variable conditions until 11.7 ka as the AMOC recovered. Decades of investigations into the climate of western North America during the YD have failed to identify this stepped phenomenon. Here we present hydroclimate data from paleospring deposits in Death Valley National Park (California, USA) that demonstrate unequivocal evidence of two-stage partitioning within the YD event. High groundwater levels supported persistent and long-lived spring ecosystems between ~ 13.0 and 12.2 ka, which were immediately replaced by alternating wet and dry environments until ~ 11.8 ka. These results establish the mid-YD climate transition extended into western North America at approximately the same time it was recorded by hydrologic systems elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere and show that even short-lived changes in the AMOC can have profound consequences for ecosystems worldwide.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2014

The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be "suitable" for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2022

Modeling impacts of drought-induced salinity intrusion on carbon dynamics in tidal freshwater forested wetlands

Tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) provide critical ecosystem services including essential habitat for a variety of wildlife species and significant carbon sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, large uncertainties remain concerning the impacts of climate change on the magnitude and variability of carbon fluxes and storage across a range of TFFW. In this study, we developed a process-driven Tidal Freshwater Wetlands DeNitrification-DeComposition model (TFW-DNDC) that has integrated new features, such as soil salinity effects on plant productivity and soil organic matter decomposition to explore carbon dynamics in TFFW in response to drought-induced saltwater intrusion. Eight sites along the floodplains of the Waccamaw River (USA) and the Savannah River (USA) were selected to represent TFFW transition from healthy to moderately and highly salt-impacted forests, and eventually to oligohaline marshes. TFW-DNDC was calibrated and validated using field observed annual litterfall, stem growth, root growth, soil heterotrophic respiration and soil organic carbon storage. Analyses indicate that plant productivity and soil carbon sequestration in TFFW could change substantially in response to increased soil porewater salinity and reduced soil water table due to drought, but in interactive ways dependent on the river simulated. Such responses are variable due to non-linear relationships between carbon cycling processes and environmental drivers. Plant productivity, plant respiration, soil organic carbon sequestration rate and storage in the highly salt-impacted forest sites decreased significantly under drought conditions compared to normal conditions. Considering the high likelihood of healthy and moderately salt-impacted forests becoming highly salt-impacted forests under future climate change and sea-level rise, it is very likely that TFFW will lose their capacity as carbon sinks without up-slope migration.

Georgia, South Carolina↗

USGS2019

Designing flows to enhance ecosystem functioning in heavily altered rivers

More than a century of dam construction and water development in the western United States has led to extensive ecological alteration of rivers. Growing interest in improving river function is compelling practitioners to consider ecological restoration when managing dams and water extraction. We developed an Ecological Response Model (ERM) for the Cache la Poudre River, northern Colorado, USA, to illuminate effects of current and possible future water management and climate change. We used empirical data and modeled interactions among multiple ecosystem components to capture system-wide insights not possible with the unintegrated models commonly used in environmental assessments. The ERM results showed additional flow regime modification would further alter the structure and function of Poudre River aquatic and riparian ecosystems due to multiple and interacting stressors. Model predictions illustrated that specific peak flow magnitudes in spring and early summer are critical for substrate mobilization, dynamic channel morphology, and overbank flows, with strong subsequent effects on instream and riparian biota that varied seasonally and spatially, allowing exploration of nuanced management scenarios. Instream biological indicators benefitted from higher and more stable base flows and high peak flows, but stable base flows with low peak flows were only half as effective to increase indicators. Improving base flows while reducing peak flows, as currently proposed for the Cache la Poudre River, would further reduce ecosystem function. Modeling showed that even presently depleted annual flow volumes can achieve substantially different ecological outcomes in designed flow scenarios, while still supporting social demands. Model predictions demonstrated that implementing designed flows in a natural pattern, with attention to base and peak flows, may be needed to preserve or improve ecosystem function of the Poudre River. Improved regulatory policies would include preservation of ecosystem-level, flow-related processes and adaptive management when water development projects are considered.

Colorado↗

USGS2013

The influence of global climate change on the scientific foundations and applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Introduction to a SETAC international workshop

This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled “The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry.” The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer the following question: How will global climate change influence the environmental impacts of chemicals and other stressors and the way we assess and manage them in the environment? While more detail is found in the complete series of articles, some key consensus points are as follows: (1) human actions (including mitigation of and adaptation to impacts of global climate change [GCC]) may have as much influence on the fate and distribution of chemical contaminants as does GCC, and modeled predictions should be interpreted cautiously; (2) climate change can affect the toxicity of chemicals, but chemicals can also affect how organisms acclimate to climate change; (3) effects of GCC may be slow, variable, and difficult to detect, though some populations and communities of high vulnerability may exhibit responses sooner and more dramatically than others; (4) future approaches to human and ecological risk assessments will need to incorporate multiple stressors and cumulative risks considering the wide spectrum of potential impacts stemming from GCC; and (5) baseline/reference conditions for estimating resource injury and restoration/rehabilitation will continually shift due to GCC and represent significant challenges to practitioners.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2012

P2S--Coupled simulation with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Stream Temperature Network (SNTemp) Models

A software program, called P2S, has been developed which couples the daily stream temperature simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Stream Network Temperature model with the watershed hydrology simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model that simulates hydrologic response to various combinations of climate and land use. Stream Network Temperature was developed to help aquatic biologists and engineers predict the effects of changes that hydrology and energy have on water temperatures. P2S will allow scientists and watershed managers to evaluate the effects of historical climate and projected climate change, landscape evolution, and resource management scenarios on watershed hydrology and in-stream water temperature.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

The impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the Pacific. The 2015/2016 El Niño event was one of the strongest of the last 145 years, resulting in anomalously high wave energy across the U.S. West Coast, and record coastal erosion for many California beaches. To better manage coastal resources, it is critical to understand the impacts of both short-term climate variability and long-term climate impacts across the varied coastal settings of California. This study is the first to quantify the coastal response for one of the strongest El Niño events in the historical record across the coast of California through the analysis of nearshore wave conditions and seasonal beach changes for 8000 shore-normal transects. Through the analysis of pre- and post- El Niño LiDAR, we find that that central and northern California experienced the most sandy beach shoreline retreat/erosion during the El Niño winter, with a mean of 45.7 m of erosion (96% of beaches) in central California, a mean of 25.5 m of erosion (89% of beaches) in northern California, and a mean of 9.7 m of erosion (79% of beaches) in southern California. These patterns are compared to LiDAR and satellite-derived long-term shoreline change rates, in which southern California and central California beaches are moderately accreting, while northern California is eroding at an average of 79 cm per year. A significant correlation is found between cumulative wave energy flux and shoreline change during the El Niño winter across the state of California. Although local beach response during the El Niño winter was highly variable, heightened erosion was observed at river mouths and on the southern side of structures impeding littoral drift, with accretion observed on the northern side of these structures. These erosional patterns, driven by a northerly wave direction anomaly, contrast those of classic El Niño events such as the 1982–.83 and 1997–98 events, where more southerly storm tracks and southerly wave directions were key factors controlling shoreline behavior, and may indicate a shift in El Niño storm patterns driven by climate change.

California↗

USGS2013

Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology

Phenological events – deﬁned points in the life cycle of a plant or animal – have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reﬂecting ﬂexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism – the tendency for closely related spe-cies to share similar ecological and biological attributes – in phenological traits across ﬂowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of ﬁrst ﬂower and ﬁrst leaf, encompassing ~4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the setof included species, ﬁrst, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantiﬁed phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to ﬂower and leaf at similar times. By contrastingmean ﬂowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of yearthat is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our ﬁndings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses. Synthesis. Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conser ved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species’ shared evolutionary histories.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2020

Eastern oyster clearance and respiration rates in response to acute and chronic exposure to suspended sediment loads

Coastal Louisiana supports some of the most productive areas for the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica . Changing conditions from restoration and climate change alter freshwater and sediment inflows into critical estuarine areas affecting water quality, including salinity and concentrations of suspended sediment. This study examined the effects of acute (1 h) and chronic (8 weeks) exposure of suspended sediment concentrations on the eastern oyster's respiration and clearance rates. Acute exposure at six sediment concentrations (0, 10, 50, 200, 500, 1000 mg L −1 ) and one salinity (15) indicated that sediment concentration significantly affected oyster clearance rates, with increasing clearance rates as suspended sediment concentrations increased up to 500 mg L −1 . Respiration rates were not affected by sediment concentration ( p = .12). Chronic exposure at two salinities (6 and 15) and three sediment concentrations (0, 50, 400 mg L −1 ) found no significant effect of sediment, salinity or their interaction on clearance rates. Respiration rate was reduced at higher sediment concentrations (50 and 400 mg L −1 versus 0 mg L −1 ) and lower salinity. As clearance and oxygen consumption rates critically inform oyster energetic models, these data provide valuable insight to more accurately predict eastern oyster population dynamics and inform harvest models in the face of changing estuarine conditions. Changes in rates of growth through altered energetic demands ultimately can impact not just the economic viability of the industry, but also the ability for the populations to maintain sustainable reefs.

Louisiana↗

USGS2012

Simulating the effect of climate extremes on groundwater flow through a lakebed

Groundwater exchanges with lakes resulting from cyclical wet and dry climate extremes maintain lake levels in the environment in ways that are not well understood, in part because they remain difficult to simulate. To better understand the atypical groundwater interactions with lakes caused by climatic extremes, an original conceptual approach is introduced using MODFLOW-2005 and a kinematic-wave approximation to variably saturated flow that allows lake size and position in the basin to change while accurately representing the daily lake volume and three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow responses in the basin. Daily groundwater interactions are simulated for a calibrated lake basin in Florida over a decade that included historic wet and dry departures from the average rainfall. The divergent climate extremes subjected nearly 70% of the maximum lakebed area and 75% of the maximum shoreline perimeter to both groundwater inflow and lake leakage. About half of the lakebed area subject to flow reversals also went dry. A flow-through pattern present for 73% of the decade caused net leakage from the lake 80% of the time. Runoff from the saturated lake margin offset the groundwater deficit only about half of that time. A centripetal flow pattern present for 6% of the decade was important for maintaining the lake stage and generated 30% of all net groundwater inflow. Pumping effects superimposed on dry climate extremes induced the least frequent but most cautionary flow pattern with leakage from over 90% of the actual lakebed area.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Spring phenology drives range shifts in a migratory Arctic ungulate with key implications for the future

Annual variation in phenology can have profound effects on the behavior of animals. As climate change advances spring phenology in ecosystems around the globe, it is becoming increasingly important to understand how animals respond to variation in the timing of seasonal events and how their responses may shift in the future. We investigated the influence of spring phenology on the behavior of migratory, barren-ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), a species that has evolved to cope with short Arctic summers. Specifically, we examined the effect of spring snow melt and vegetation growth on the current and potential future space-use patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH), which exhibits large, inter-annual shifts in their calving and post-calving distributions across the U.S.–Canadian border. We quantified PCH selection for snow melt and vegetation phenology using machine learning models, determined how selection resulted in annual shifts in space-use, and then projected future distributions based on climate-driven phenology models. Caribou exhibited strong, scale-dependent selection for both snow melt and vegetation growth. During the calving season, caribou selected areas at finer scales where the snow had melted and vegetation was greening, but within broader landscapes that were still brown or snow covered. During the post-calving season, they selected vegetation with intermediate biomass expected to have high forage quality. Annual variation in spring phenology predicted major shifts in PCH space-use. In years with early spring phenology, PCH predominately used habitat in Alaska, while in years with late phenology, they spent more time in Yukon. Future climate conditions were projected to advance spring phenology, shifting PCH calving and post-calving distributions further west into Alaska. Our results demonstrate that caribou selection for habitat in specific phenological stages drive dramatic shifts in annual space-use patterns, and will likely affect future distributions, underscoring the importance of maintaining sufficient suitable habitat to allow for behavioral plasticity.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2019

The ‘Ike Wai Hawai‘i groundwater recharge tool

This paper discusses the design and implementation of the ‘Ike Wai Hawai‘i Groundwater Recharge Tool, an application for providing data and analyses of the impacts of land-cover and climate modifications on groundwater-recharge rates for the island of O‘ahu. This application uses simulation data based on a set of 29 land-cover types and two rainfall scenarios to provide users with real-time recharge calculations for interactively defined land-cover modifications. Two visualizations, representing the land cover for the island and the resultant groundwater-recharge rates, and a set of metrics indicating the changes to groundwater recharge for relevant areas of the map are provided to present a set of easily interpreted outcomes based on the user-defined simulations. Tools are provided to give users varying degrees of control over the granularity of data input and output, allowing for the quick production of a roughly defined simulation, or more precise land-cover models that can be exported for further analysis. Heuristics are used to provide a responsive user interface and performant integration with the database containing the full set of simulation data. This tool is designed to provide user-friendly access to the information on the impacts of land-cover and climate changes on groundwater recharge rates needed to make data-driven decisions.

Hawaii↗

USGS2008

Humid tropical forest clearing from 2000 to 2005 quantified by using multitemporal and multiresolution remotely sensed data

Forest cover is an important input variable for assessing changes to carbon stocks, climate and hydrological systems, biodiversity richness, and other sustainability science disciplines. Despite incremental improvements in our ability to quantify rates of forest clearing, there is still no definitive understanding on global trends. Without timely and accurate forest monitoring methods, policy responses will be uninformed concerning the most basic facts of forest cover change. Results of a feasible and cost-effective monitoring strategy are presented that enable timely, precise, and internally consistent estimates of forest clearing within the humid tropics. A probability-based sampling approach that synergistically employs low and high spatial resolution satellite datasets was used to quantify humid tropical forest clearing from 2000 to 2005. Forest clearing is estimated to be 1.39% (SE 0.084%) of the total biome area. This translates to an estimated forest area cleared of 27.2 million hectares (SE 2.28 million hectares), and represents a 2.36% reduction in area of humid tropical forest. Fifty-five percent of total biome clearing occurs within only 6% of the biome area, emphasizing the presence of forest clearing “hotspots.” Forest loss in Brazil accounts for 47.8% of total biome clearing, nearly four times that of the next highest country, Indonesia, which accounts for 12.8%. Over three-fifths of clearing occurs in Latin America and over one-third in Asia. Africa contributes 5.4% to the estimated loss of humid tropical forest cover, reflecting the absence of current agro-industrial scale clearing in humid tropical Africa.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2014

Adélie penguins coping with environmental change: Results from a natural experiment at the edge of their breeding range

We investigated life history responses to extreme variation in physical environmental conditions during a long-term demographic study of Adélie penguins at 3 colonies representing 9% of the world population and the full range of breeding colony sizes. Five years into the 14-year study (1997–2010) two very large icebergs (spanning 1.5 latitude degrees in length) grounded in waters adjacent to breeding colonies, dramatically altering environmental conditions during 2001–2005. This natural experiment allowed us to evaluate the relative impacts of expected long-term, but also extreme, short-term climate perturbations on important natural history parameters that can regulate populations. The icebergs presented physical barriers, not just to the penguins but to polynya formation, which profoundly increased foraging effort and movement rates, while reducing breeding propensity and productivity, especially at the smallest colony. We evaluated the effect of a variety of environmental parameters during breeding, molt, migration and wintering periods during years with and without icebergs on penguin breeding productivity, chick mass, and nesting chronology. The icebergs had far more influence on the natural history parameters of penguins than any of the other environmental variables measured, resulting in population level changes to metrics of reproductive performance, including delays in nesting chronology, depressed breeding productivity, and lower chick mass. These effects were strongest at the smallest, southern-most colony, which was most affected by alteration of the Ross Sea Polynya during years the iceberg was present. Additionally, chick mass was negatively correlated with colony size, supporting previous findings indicating density-dependent energetic constraints at the largest colony. Understanding the negative effects of the icebergs on the short-term natural history of Adélie penguins, as well as their response to long-term environmental variation, are important to our overall understanding of climate change effects in this and other species facing both rapid and persistent environmental change.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2023

Riparian vegetation response amid variable climate conditions across the Upper Gila River watershed: Informing Tribal restoration priorities

Riparian systems across the Southwest United States are extremely valuable for the human and ecological communities that engage with them. However, they have experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century, including non-native vegetation expansion, vegetation die-offs, and increased fire activity. Vegetation management approaches, such as ecological restoration, may address some of these stressors as well as reduce the risk of future impacts. We apply remote sensing to inform restoration priorities along the upper Gila River within the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed. First, we develop a spatially and temporally explicit trend analysis across three observed climate periods (1985–1993, 1993–2014, 2014–2021) using the Landsat-derived indices to quantify changes in riparian vegetation conditions. These maps can be used to identify areas potentially more at risk for degradation. Second, we analyze changes in riparian vegetation within a climate framework to better understand trends and the potential effect of climate change. Vegetation greenness has largely increased throughout the watershed despite intensifying drought conditions across our study period, though areas within the lower watershed have shown increased stress and higher rates of wildfire and other disturbances over the past 5-years. Nevertheless, small-scale restoration activities appear to show improving vegetation conditions, suggesting efficacy of these restoration activities. Results from this study may be integrated with restoration objectives to develop a restoration plan that will help riparian vegetation communities adapt to change.

Arizona↗

USGS2013

Shallow groundwater in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Alaska—Conceptualization and simulation of flow

The Matanuska-Susitna Valley is in the Upper Cook Inlet Basin and is currently undergoing rapid population growth outside of municipal water and sewer service areas. In response to concerns about the effects of increasing water use on future groundwater availability, a study was initiated between the Alaska Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Geological Survey. The goals of the study were (1) to compile existing data and collect new data to support hydrogeologic conceptualization of the study area, and (2) to develop a groundwater flow model to simulate flow dynamics important at the regional scale. The purpose of the groundwater flow model is to provide a scientific framework for analysis of regional-scale groundwater availability. To address the first study goal, subsurface lithologic data were compiled into a database and were used to construct a regional hydrogeologic framework model describing the extent and thickness of hydrogeologic units in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley. The hydrogeologic framework model synthesizes existing maps of surficial geology and conceptual geochronologies developed in the study area with the distribution of lithologies encountered in hundreds of boreholes. The geologic modeling package Geological Surveying and Investigation in Three Dimensions (GSI3D) was used to construct the hydrogeologic framework model. In addition to characterizing the hydrogeologic framework, major groundwater-budget components were quantified using several different techniques. A land-surface model known as the Deep Percolation Model was used to estimate in-place groundwater recharge across the study area. This model incorporates data on topography, soils, vegetation, and climate. Model-simulated surface runoff was consistent with observed streamflow at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Groundwater withdrawals were estimated on the basis of records from major water suppliers during 2004-2010. Fluxes between groundwater and surface water were estimated during field investigations on several small streams. Regional groundwater flow patterns were characterized by synthesizing previous water-table maps with a synoptic water-level measurement conducted during 2009. Time-series water-level data were collected at groundwater and lake monitoring stations over the study period (2009–present). Comparison of historical groundwater-level records with time-series groundwater-level data collected during this study showed similar patterns in groundwater-level fluctuation in response to precipitation. Groundwater-age data collected during previous studies show that water moves quickly through the groundwater system, suggesting that the system responds quickly to changes in climate forcing. Similarly, the groundwater system quickly returns to long-term average conditions following variability due to seasonal or interannual changes in precipitation. These analyses indicate that the groundwater system is in a state of dynamic equilibrium, characterized by water-level fluctuation about a constant average state, with no long-term trends in aquifer-system storage. To address the second study goal, a steady-state groundwater flow model was developed to simulate regional groundwater flow patterns. The groundwater flow model was bounded by physically meaningful hydrologic features, and appropriate internal model boundaries were specified on the basis of conceptualization of the groundwater system resulting in a three-layer model. Calibration data included 173 water‑level measurements and 18 measurements of streamflow gains and losses along small streams. Comparison of simulated and observed heads and flows showed that the model accurately simulates important regional characteristics of the groundwater flow system. This model is therefore appropriate for studying regional-scale groundwater availability. Mismatch between model-simulated and observed hydrologic quantities is likely because of the coarse grid size of the model and seasonal transient effects. Next steps towards model refinement include the development of a transient groundwater flow model that is suitable for analysis of seasonal variability in hydraulic heads and flows. In addition, several important groundwater budget components remain poorly quantified—including groundwater outflow to the Matanuska River, Little Susitna River, and Knik Arm.

Alaska↗