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The Role of Geoscience Information in Reducing Catastrophic Loss Using a Web-Based Economics Experiment

What role can geoscience information play in the assessment of risk and the value of insurance, especially for natural hazard type risks? In an earlier, related paper Ganderton and others (2000) provided subjects with relatively simple geoscience information concerning natural hazard-type risks. Their research looked at how subjects purchase insurance when faced with relatively low probability but high loss risks of the kind that characterize natural hazards and now, increasingly, manmade disasters. They found evidence to support the expected utility theory (definitions of economics terms can be found in a glossary at the end of report), yet there remained the implication that subjects with excessive aversion to risk were willing to pay considerably more for insurance than the actuarially fair price plus any reasonable risk premium. Here, we report the results of additional experiments that provide further support for the basic postulates of expected utility theory. However, these new experiments add considerably to the decision environment facing subjects by offering an option to purchase geoscientific information that would assist them when calculating expected losses from hazards more accurately. Using an Internet-based mechanism to present information and gather data in an experimental setting, this research provided subjects with considerable textual and graphical information, and time to process it. Over a period of three months, almost 400 subjects participated in on-line experiments that generated approximately 22,000 usable data points for the empirical analysis discussed in this report. In the design of the experiment, we modeled the decisions to purchase (1) a detailed map giving subjects more information regarding the distribution of losses from a hazard and (2) insurance to indemnify them from any losses should they occur. On the basis of this design, we find strong evidence in support of the expected utility theory. Many of the findings reinforce those found in the early, similar study (Ganderton and others, 2000). However, this research also finds interactions between the decision to become better informed and the decision to insure. We chose an empirical framework that allows for both explicit and implicit (unobservable) correlations between the two decisions. The results suggest that at the end of the computer game subjects recognize the benefits of greater geoscience information. They take advantage of it, but are sensitive to its cost. When subjects use the more detailed information, they are more likely to purchase insurance when it offers a net benefit.

Professional Paper↗

Coal and petroleum resources in the Appalachian basin: index maps of included studies

This chapter B.1 of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1708 provides index maps for many of the studies described in other chapters of the report. Scientists of the USGS and State geological surveys studied coal and petroleum resources in the central and southern Appalachian structural basins. In the southern Appalachian basin, studies focused on the coal-bearing parts of the Black Warrior basin in Alabama. The scientists used new and existing geologic data sets to create a common spatial geologic framework for the fossil-fuel-bearing strata of the central Appalachian basin and the Black Warrior basin in Alabama. Digital data have been compiled into a geographic information system (GIS) that is included in chapter I.1 (Trippi and others, this volume). Shape files and related metadata for features shown in the index maps of this chapter can be downloaded from chapter I.1. The study area for the Appalachian basin resource framework study includes the fossil-fuel-bearing strata of the following States (listed alphabetically): Alabama, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. The outline of the study area is shown in figure 1; it differs from the boundary of the Appalachian Basin Province (Province 67) defined for the 1995 National Oil and Gas Assessment (NOGA) by the U.S. Geological Survey (1996a). The difference is that the study area includes regions where the Pennsylvanian coal-bearing strata crop out but does not include all of the oil- and gas-bearing strata of the Black Warrior basin, Alabama. The reasons for providing the index maps in this chapter are to show the locations of different studies, to give an overview of topics covered, and to help the user choose which chapter to read. Figures 1 and 2 show the study area outline and county names. Figure 3 shows oil and gas production in 1995 and 2005. Figure 4 shows locations of Upper Devonian sandstone oil and gas fields. Figure 5 shows major coal regions and coal fields. Figure 6 shows coal production by county. Figure 7 shows the locations of 10 cross sections of regional extent through the subsurface of the Appalachian basin. Figure 8 shows conodont alteration index sample locations and interpreted isograds for Ordovician rocks. Figure 9 shows vitrinite-reflectance data for Pennsylvanian coal in the Appalachian basin. Figure 10 shows the locations of coalbed-methane (CBM) assessment units in the study area, and figure 12 shows counties producing CBM. Figure 12 shows sulfur content of coal delivered to powerplants from coal-producing counties in the Appalachian basin and Black Warrior basin. Figure 13 shows locations of wells in Ohio and Pennsylvania where oil and gas were sampled in Lower Silurian reservoirs. Figure 14 shows the Conasauga-Rome/Conasauga Total Petroleum System and selected wells in the Rome trough in Kentucky and West Virginia having oil and gas production and shows. Figure 15 shows the locations of samples from Silurian reservoirs in Kentucky, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia; the samples yielded total organic carbon data. Figure 16 shows the locations of the Ben Hur and Rose Hill oil fields, Virginia, and the Swan Creek oil field, Tennessee. The one index map that is not shown is the areal extent of the shale gas plays in the basin. The extents of the plays can be found in Coleman and others (this volume, chap. G.13).

Appalachian basin↗

Coal assessments and coal research in the Appalachian basin

Coal is one of our most important domestic energy resources, producing 37 percent of the Nation’s electricity in 2012. Coal mining within the Appalachian basin has been ongoing for three centuries and, cumulatively, the basin is the most productive coal region in the United States. In 2012, only the Powder River basin produced more coal than the Appalachian basin. Coal is the most important mined product within the basin, and research on the quality and quantity of the coal is one of the primary functions of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the State geological surveys of Alabama, Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. The USGS and the State geological surveys historically have worked together on coal research and assessment projects to achieve mutually beneficial science goals. The 2000 USGS coal resource assessment of the Appalachian basin (Northern and Central Appalachian Basin Coal Regions Assessment Team, 2001, USGS Professional Paper 1625–C) was done in close collaboration with scientists of the State geological surveys of Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. Five of the top-producing coal beds and coal zones within the basin were quantitatively assessed, and results show that ample coal resources remain. Coal quality, not coal quantity, is the principal driver for coal production and use within the basin and will be for the foreseeable future. Cumulative coalbed-methane (CBM) production within the Appalachian basin has been about 2.3 trillion cubic feet (TCF), and most of the production has come from Alabama and Virginia (Milici and Polyak, this volume, chap. G.2). Significant CBM resources occur throughout the coal-producing States in the Appalachian basin, and commercial production is possible in all. State geological surveys are concentrating on mapping and correlating coal beds and coal zones and studying CBM potential and production. Both State surveys and the USGS are researching the potential for carbon dioxide sequestration in unmined coal beds and other geologic reservoirs. In addition, the State geological surveys continue their long-term collaboration with the USGS and provide coal stratigraphic data to the National Coal Resources Data System (NCRDS).

Appalachian basin↗

A brief history of oil and gas exploration in the southern San Joaquin Valley of California:

The Golden State got its nickname from the Sierra Nevada gold that lured so many miners and settlers to the West, but California has earned much more wealth from so-called “black gold” than from metallic gold. The San Joaquin Valley has been the principal source for most of the petroleum produced in the State during the past 145 years. In attempting to assess future additions to petroleum reserves in a mature province such as the San Joaquin Basin, it helps to be mindful of the history of resource development. In this chapter we present a brief overview of the long and colorful history of petroleum exploration and development in the San Joaquin Valley. This chapter relies heavily upon the work of William Rintoul, who wrote extensively on the history of oil and gas exploration in California and especially in the San Joaquin Valley. No report on the history of oil and gas exploration in the San Joaquin Valley would be possible without heavily referencing his publications. We also made use of publications by Susan Hodgson and a U.S. Geological Survey Web site, Natural Oil and Gas Seeps in California (http://seeps.wr.usgs.gov/seeps/index.html), for much of the material describing the use of petroleum by Native Americans in the San Joaquin Valley. Finally, we wish to acknowledge the contribution of Don Arnot, who manages the photograph collection at the West Kern Oil Museum in Taft, California. The collection consists of more than 10,000 photographs that have been scanned and preserved in digital form on CD-ROM. Many of the historical photographs used in this paper are from that collection. Finally, to clarify our terminology, we use the term “San Joaquin Valley” when we refer to the geographical or topographical feature and the term “San Joaquin Basin” when we refer to geological province and the rocks therein.

California↗

Analysis of improved government geological map information for mineral exploration: Incorporating efficiency, productivity, effectiveness, and risk considerations

This bulletin/professional paper focuses on the value of geoscientific information and knowledge, as provided in published government bedrock geological maps, to the mineral exploration sector. An economic model is developed that uses an attribute- ranking approach to convert geological maps into domains of mineral favourability. Information about known deposits in these (or analogous) favourability domains allow the calculation of exploration search statistics that provide input into measures of exploration efficiency, productivity, effectiveness, risk, and cost stemming from the use of the published geological maps. Two case studies, the Flin Flon Belt (Manitoba and Saskatchewan) and the south Baffin Island area (Nunavut), demonstrate that updated, finer resolution maps can be used to identify more exploration campaign options, and campaigns thats are more efficient, more effective, and less risky than old, coarser resolution maps when used as a guide for mineral exploration. The Flin Flon Belt study illustrates that an updated, coarser resolution bedrock map enables improved mineral exploration efficiency, productivity, and effectiveness by locating 60% more targets and supporting an exploration campaign that is 44% more efficient. Refining the map resolution provides an additional 17% reduction in search effort across all favourable domains and a 55% reduction in search effort in the most favourable domain. The south Baffin Island case study projects a 40% increase in expected targets and a 27% reduction in search effort when the updated, finer resolution map is used in lieu of the old, coarser resolution map. On southern Baffin Island, the economic value of the up dated map ranges from CAN$2.28 million to CAN$15.21 million, which can be compared to the CAN$1.86 million that it cost to produce the map (a multiplier effect of up to eight).

Professional Paper↗

Hydrogeologic settings and groundwater-flow simulations for regional investigations of the transport of anthropogenic and natural contaminants to public-supply wells—Investigations begun in 2004

A study of the Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants to public-supply wells (TANC study) was begun in 2001 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The study was designed to shed light on factors that affect the vulnerability of groundwater and, more specifically, water from public-supply wells to contamination to provide a context for the NAWQA Program's earlier finding of mixtures of contaminants at low concentrations in groundwater near the water table in urban areas across the Nation. The TANC study has included investigations at both the regional (tens to thousands of square kilometers) and local (generally less than 25 square kilometers) scales. At the regional scale, the approach to investigation involves refining conceptual models of groundwater flow in hydrologically distinct settings and then constructing or updating a groundwater-flow model with particle tracking for each setting to help quantify regional water budgets, public-supply well contributing areas (areas contributing recharge to wells and zones of contribution for wells), and traveltimes from recharge areas to selected wells. A great deal of information about each contributing area is captured from the model output, including values for 170 variables that describe physical and (or) geochemical characteristics of the contributing areas. The information is subsequently stored in a relational database. Retrospective water-quality data from monitoring, domestic, and many of the public-supply wells, as well as data from newly collected samples at selected public-supply wells, also are stored in the database and are used with the model output to help discern the more important factors affecting vulnerability in many, if not most, settings. The study began with investigations in seven regional areas, and it benefits from being conducted as part of the NAWQA Program, in which consistent methods are used so that meaningful comparisons can be made. The hydrogeologic settings and regional-scale groundwater-flow models from the initial seven regional areas are documented in Chapter A of this U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper. Also documented in Chapter A are the methods used to collect and compile the water-quality data, determine contributing areas of the public-supply wells, and characterize the oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions in each setting. A data dictionary for the database that was designed to enable joint storage and access to water-quality data and groundwater-flow model particle-tracking output is included as Appendix 1 of Chapter A. This chapter, Chapter B, documents modifications to the study methods and presents descriptions of two regional areas that were added to the TANC study in 2004.

Professional Paper↗

A volcano rekindled: The renewed eruption of Mount St. Helens, 2004-2006

Mount St. Helens began a dome-building eruption in September 2004 after nearly two decades of quiescence. Dome growth was initially robust, became more sluggish with time, and ceased completely in late January 2008. The volcano has been quiet again since January 2008. Professional Paper 1750 describes the first 1 1/2 years of this eruptive activity, chiefly from September 2004 until December 2005. Its 37 chapters contain contributions of 87 authors from 23 institutions, including the U.S. Geological Survey, Forest Service, many universities, and local and State emergency management agencies. Chapter topics range widely - from seismology, geology, geodesy, gas geochemistry, and petrology to the human endeavor required for managing the public volcanic lands and distributing information during the hectic early days of a renewed eruption. In PDF format, the book may be downloaded in its entirety or by its topical sections, each section including a few prefatory paragraphs that describe the general findings, recurrent themes, and, in some cases, the unanswered questions that arise repeatedly. Those readers who prefer downloading the smaller files of only a chapter or two have this option available as well. Readers are directed to chapter 1 for a general overview of the eruption and the manner in which different chapters build our knowledge of events. More detailed summaries for specific topics can be found in chapter 2 (seismology), chapter 9 (geology), chapter 14 (deformation), chapter 26 (gas geochemistry), and chapter 30 (petrology). The printed version of the book may be purchased as a hardback weighty tome (856 printed pages) that includes a DVD replete with the complete online version, including all chapters and several additional appendixes not in the printed book.

Washington↗

Overview of the 2004 to 2006, and continuing, eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

Rapid onset of unrest at Mount St. Helens on September 23, 2004, initiated an uninterrupted lava-dome-building eruption that continues to the time of writing this overview (spring 2006) for a volume of papers focused on this eruption. About three weeks of intense seismic unrest and localized surface uplift, punctuated by four brief explosions, constituted a ventclearing phase, during which there was a frenzy of media attention and considerable uncertainty regarding the likely course of the eruption. The third week exhibited lessened seismicity and only minor venting of steam and ash, but rapid growth of the uplift, or welt, south of the 1980-86 lava dome proceeded as magma continued to push upward. Crystalrich dacite (~65 weight percent SiO 2 ) lava first appeared at the surface on October 11, 2004, beginning the growth of a complex lava dome of uniform chemical composition accompanied by persistent but low levels of seismicity, rare explosions, low gas emissions, and frequent rockfalls. Petrologic studies suggest that the dome lava is chiefly of 1980s vintage, but with an admixed portion of new dacite. Alternatively, it may derive from a part of the magma chamber not tapped by 1980s eruptions. Regardless, detailed investigations of crystal chemistry, melt inclusions, and isotopes reveal a complex magmatic history. Largely episodic extrusion between 1980 and 1986 produced a relatively symmetrical lava dome composed of stubby lobes. In contrast, continuous extrusion at mean rates of about 5 m 3 /s in autumn 2004 to <1 m 3 /s in early 2006 has produced an east-west ridge of three mounds with total volume about equal to that of the old dome. During much of late 2004 to summer 2005, a succession of spines, two recumbent and one steeply sloping and each mantled by striated gouge, grew to nearly 500 m in length in the southeastern sector of the 1980 crater and later disintegrated into two mounds. Since then, growth has been concentrated in the southwestern sector, producing a relatively symmetrical mound with steep gougecovered slabs on its east flank. Throughout the eruption, the position of the extrusive vent has remained more or less fixed. Lack of geodetic evidence for either volume increase or pressure increase in the deep magmatic system since about 1990 and geodetic modeling that can account for only 20 to 30 percent of the 2004-to-present dome volume puzzles geodesists. Better constraints on parameters such as magma-chamber volume, crustal properties, and magma compressibility are needed to improve the models. Development of the welt and the new dome bisected horseshoe-shaped Crater Glacier, which formerly wrapped around three sides of the 1980s dome, and fractured, compressed, and thickened the glacier’s surviving east and west arms. Doubling of ice thickness resulted in increased flow rate and advance of termini, although rapid infiltration of water into the highly porous glacier bed prevented substantial basal sliding. Overall, dome growth and disintegration has removed surprisingly little ice. The outcome of the ongoing eruption remains uncertain, but Mount St. Helens’ varied eruptive history suggests multiple possibilities. One dynamical model and several petrologic investigations regard the current eruption as an extension of 1980s dome building that may persist continuously or episodically for years to come.

Washington↗

Absolute and relative locations of earthquakes at Mount St. Helens, Washington, using continuous data: Implications for magmatic processes

This study uses a combination of absolute and relative locations from earthquake multiplets to investigate the seismicity associated with the eruptive sequence at Mount St. Helens between September 23, 2004, and November 20, 2004. Multiplets, a prominent feature of seismicity during this time period, occurred as volcano-tectonic, hybrid, and low-frequency earthquakes spanning a large range of magnitudes and lifespans. Absolute locations were improved through the use of a new one-dimensional velocity model with excellent shallow constraints on P-wave velocities. We used jackknife tests to minimize possible biases in absolute and relative locations resulting from station outages and changing station configurations. In this paper, we show that earthquake hypocenters shallowed before the October 1 explosion along a north-dipping structure under the 1980-86 dome. Relative relocations of multiplets during the initial seismic unrest and ensuing eruption showed rather small source volumes before the October 1 explosion and larger tabular source volumes after October 5. All multiplets possess absolute locations very close to each other. However, the highly dissimilar waveforms displayed by each of the multiplets analyzed suggest that different sources and mechanisms were present within a very small source volume. We suggest that multiplets were related to pressurization of the conduit system that produced a stationary source that was highly stable over long time periods. On the basis of their response to explosions occurring in October 2004, earthquakes not associated with multiplets also appeared to be pressure dependent. The pressure source for these earthquakes appeared, however, to be different from the pressure source of the multiplets.

Washington↗

Some of Alpheus Hyatt's unfigured types from the Jurassic of California

Alpheus Hyatt named a considerable number of Jurassic fossils from California. Only a few of these were described, arid none were illustrated. In this paper 16 of these species are evaluated in terms of present-day nomenclature, figures of the type specimens are shown, and their probable age significance is given. Included are Monotis semiplicata (=Entolium semiplicata),Monotis symmetrica (=Entolium symmetrica), Daonella?subjecta ( = '' Daonella" subjecta), Daonella bOchiformts (=" Daonella" bOchiformis), Daonella cardinoides (="Duonella"cardinoides), A ucella erringtoni var. arcuata ( = Buchia arcuata), Aucella elongata ( = Buchia elongata), AuceUa var.elongata orbicularis ( = Buchia sinzovi), Aucella aviculaeformis ( = Buchia erringtoni var. aviculaeformis), Aucella aviculaeformis var. acuta ( = Buchia erringtoni var. orbicularis), Aucella orb·.icularis( = Buchia erringtoni var. orbicularis), Cardioceras dub\~um ( = Amoeboceras dubium), Perisphinctes virgulatiformis ( = Viigatosphinctes virgulatiformis), Perisphinctes miihlbachi ( = Dichotomoceras miihlbachi), iJlcostephanus lindgreni ( =" Galilaeiceras" lindgreni), Oecotraustes denticulata ( = "Oecotraustes" dent-iculata).

California↗

Geology, geochemistry, and genesis of the Greens Creek massive sulfide deposit, Admiralty Island, southeastern Alaska

In 1996, a memorandum of understanding was signed by representatives of the U.S. Geological Survey and Kennecott Greens Creek Mining Company to initiate a cooperative applied research project focused on the Greens Creek massive sulfide deposit in southeastern Alaska. The goals of the project were consistent with the mandate of the U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Resources Program to maintain a leading role in national mineral deposits research and with the need of Kennecott Greens Creek Mining Company to further development of the Greens Creek deposit and similar deposits in Alaska and elsewhere. The memorandum enumerated four main research priorities: (1) characterization of protoliths for the wall rocks, and elucidation of their alteration histories, (2) determination of the ore mineralogy and paragenesis, including metal residences and metal zonation within the deposit, (3) determination of the ages of events important to ore formation using both geochronology and paleontology, and (4) development of computer models that would allow the deposit and its host rocks to be examined in detail in three dimensions. The work was carried out by numerous scientists of diverse expertise over a period of several years. The written results, which are contained in this Professional Paper, are presented by 21 authors: 13 from the U.S. Geological Survey, 4 from Kennecott Greens Creek Mining Company, 2 from academia, and 2 from consultants. The Greens Creek deposit (global resource of 24.2 million tons at an average grade of 13.9 percent zinc, 5.1 percent lead, 0.15 troy ounce per ton gold, and 19.2 troy ounces per ton silver at zero cutoff) formed in latest Triassic time during a brief period of rifting of the Alexander terrane. The deposit exhibits a range of syngenetic, diagenetic, and epigenetic features that are typical of volcanogenic (VMS), sedimentary exhalative (SEDEX), and Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) genetic models. In the earliest stages of rifting, formation of precious-metal-rich silica-barite-carbonate white ores began at low temperature in a shallow, subaqueous setting, probably a thin carbonate shelf on the flanks of the Alexander landmass. Epigenetic carbonate replacement textures in the footwall dolostones are overlain by stratiform silica-carbonate-barite-rich ores and indicate that early mineralization formed at and just beneath the paleo sea floor by mixing of a reduced, precious-metal-rich, base-metal-poor hydrothermal fluid with oxygenated seawater. As rifting intensified, the shelf was downfaulted and isolated as a graben. Isolation of the basin and onset of starved-basin shale sedimentation was concurrent with emplacement of mafic-ultramafic intrusives at shallow levels in the rift, resulting in an increasingly higher temperature and progressively more anoxic ore-forming environment. The formation of the main stage of massive sulfide ores began as the supply of bacterially reduced sulfur increased in the accumulating shales. As the main-stage mineralization intensified, shale sedimentation inundated the hydrothermal system, eventually forming a cap. Biogenic sulfate reduction supplied reduced sulfur to the base of the shales where mixing occurred with hot, base-metal-rich hydrothermal fluids. Ore deposition continued by destruction and epigenetic replacement of the early white ores in proximal areas and by inflation and diagenetic replacement of unlithified shale at the interface between the white ores and the base of the shale cap. Ore deposition waned as the shales became lithified and as the supply of bacterially reduced sulfur to the site of ore deposition ceased. The final stages of rifting resulted in the emplacement of mafic-ultramafic intrusive rocks into the Greens Creek system and extrusion of voluminous basaltic flows at the top of the Triassic section. Greenschist facies metamorphism during the Jurassic-Cretaceous accretion of the Alexander terrane to the continental margin resulted in recrystalli

Professional Paper↗

Status and trends of land change in the United States--1973 to 2000

Summary U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794 is a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation&rsquo;s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, B, C, and D provide analyses for the Western United States, the Great Plains, the Midwest&ndash;South Central United States, and the Eastern United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov .

Professional Paper↗

Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794&ndash;A is the first in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation&rsquo;s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Western United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes B, C, and D provide similar analyses for the Great Plains, the Midwest&ndash;South Central United States, and the Eastern United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Western United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Western United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov .

Professional Paper↗

Status and trends of land change in the Great Plains of the United States--1973 to 2000

Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794&ndash;B is the second in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation&rsquo;s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Great Plains of the United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, C, and D provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the Midwest&ndash;South Central United States, and the Eastern United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Great Plains of the United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Great Plains of the United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov .

Great Plains↗

Status and trends of land change in the Midwest–South Central United States—1973 to 2000

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794&ndash;C is the third in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation&rsquo;s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Midwest&ndash;South Central United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, B, and D provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the Great Plains of the United States, and the Eastern United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Midwest&ndash;South Central United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Midwest&ndash;South Central United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research.

Professional Paper↗

Status and trends of land change in the Eastern United States—1973 to 2000

Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–D is the fourth in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Eastern United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, B, and C provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the Great Plains of the United States, and the Midwest–South Central United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Eastern United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Eastern United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov .

Professional Paper↗

2011 floods of the central United States

The Central United States experienced record-setting flooding during 2011, with floods that extended from headwater streams in the Rocky Mountains, to transboundary rivers in the upper Midwest and Northern Plains, to the deep and wide sand-bedded lower Mississippi River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of its mission, collected extensive information during and in the aftermath of the 2011 floods to support scientific analysis of the origins and consequences of extreme floods. The information collected for the 2011 floods, combined with decades of past data, enables scientists and engineers from the USGS to provide syntheses and scientific analyses to inform emergency managers, planners, and policy makers about life-safety, economic, and environmental-health issues surrounding flood hazards for the 2011 floods and future floods like it. USGS data, information, and scientific analyses provide context and understanding of the effect of floods on complex societal issues such as ecosystem and human health, flood-plain management, climate-change adaptation, economic security, and the associated policies enacted for mitigation. Among the largest societal questions is "How do we balance agricultural, economic, life-safety, and environmental needs in and along our rivers?" To address this issue, many scientific questions have to be answered including the following: * How do the 2011 weather and flood conditions compare to the past weather and flood conditions and what can we reasonably expect in the future for flood magnitudes? * What is the “natural” hydrology of these watersheds and how have they been changed? * How do rivers change during floods and what effects do they have on the natural and built environment: conversely, what effects do the natural and built environments have on rivers and floods? * Do floods contribute to the transport and fate of contaminants that affect human and ecosystem health? In an effort to help address these and other questions, USGS Professional Paper 1798 consists of independent but complementary chapters dealing with various scientific aspects of the 2011 floods in the Central United States.

Professional Paper↗

Petrologic insights into basaltic volcanism at historically active Hawaiian volcanoes

Study of the petrology of Hawaiian volcanoes, in particular the historically active volcanoes on the Island of Hawai&lsquo;i, has long been of worldwide scientific interest. When Dr. Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., established the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) in 1912, detailed observations on basaltic activity at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes increased dramatically. The period from 1912 to 1958 saw a gradual increase in the collection and analysis of samples from the historical eruptions of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa and development of the concepts needed to evaluate them. In a classic 1955 paper, Howard Powers introduced the concepts of magnesia variation diagrams, to display basaltic compositions, and olivine-control lines, to distinguish between possibly comagmatic and clearly distinct basaltic lineages. In particular, he and others recognized that Kīlauea and Mauna Loa basalts must have different sources. Subsequent years saw a great increase in petrologic data, as the development of the electron microprobe made it possible to routinely monitor glass and mineral compositions, in addition to bulk rock compositions. We now have 100 years&rsquo; worth of glass compositions for Kīlauea summit eruptions, which, together with expanding databases on prehistoric tephras, provide important constraints on the nature of Kīlauea&rsquo;s summit reservoir. A series of chemically distinctive eruptions in the 1950s and 1960s facilitated evaluation of magma mixing and transport processes at Kīlauea. At Mauna Loa, lava compositions are distinctive only at the trace element level, suggesting that its summit reservoir is better mixed than Kīlauea&rsquo;s. Most summit lavas at both volcanoes, however, lie on olivine control lines having the same olivine composition (Fo 86&ndash;87 ). Study of the ongoing East Rift Zone eruption at Kīlauea has further illuminated the complexity of magma storage, resupply, and mixing along this very active rift zone. Studies of active and closed-system lava lakes have been part of HVO&rsquo;s efforts since Jaggar&rsquo;s unique descriptions of the Halema&lsquo;uma&lsquo;u lava lake that existed before 1924. Detailed study of closed-system bodies, including the 1959 Kīlauea Iki, 1963 &lsquo;Alae, and 1965 and prehistoric Makaopuhi lava lakes and the Uēkahuna laccolith, have allowed recognition and quantification of processes of basalt differentiation. Specific topics reviewed herein include the occurrence of segregation veins and related structures, overall cooling history, and patterns of crystallization and reequilibration of olivine in various lava lakes. In recent decades, study of the submarine slopes of the Island of Hawai&lsquo;i and of Lō&lsquo;ihi Seamount has revolutionized our understanding of the early history of Hawaiian volcanoes. Observations of Lō&lsquo;ihi lavas first established the existence of an early alkalic stage in the evolution of Hawaiian volcanoes. Stages of volcanic development from inception to tholeiitic shield building can be observed in Kīlauea&rsquo;s submarine and subaerial sections. One distinctive feature of submarine volcanics at Kīlauea, Mauna Loa, and Hualālai is that picritic lavas are more abundant than in subaerial eruptions. Also, olivine compositions of submarine lavas are more magnesian, ranging from Fo 88 at Kīlauea to Fo 89 at Hualālai. The most magnesian glasses known from Kīlauea (MgO=14.7&ndash;15.0 weight percent) were found along the submarine part of Kīlauea&rsquo;s East Rift Zone. Contributions to our knowledge of the nature of the mantle source(s) of Hawaiian basalts are reviewed briefly, although this is a topic where debate is ongoing. Finally, our accumulated petrologic observations impose constraints on the nature of the summit reservoirs at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, specifically whether the summit chamber has been continuous or segmented during past decades.

Hawaii↗