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At least 1,369 records · Page 76Linked to original sources

Sequential megafaunal collapse in the North Pacific Ocean: An ongoing legacy of industrial whaling?

Populations of seals, sea lions, and sea otters have sequentially collapsed over large areas of the northern North Pacific Ocean and southern Bering Sea during the last several decades. A bottom-up nutritional limitation mechanism induced by physical oceanographic change or competition with fisheries was long thought to be largely responsible for these declines. The current weight of evidence is more consistent with top-down forcing. Increased predation by killer whales probably drove the sea otter collapse and may have been responsible for the earlier pinniped declines as well. We propose that decimation of the great whales by post-World War II industrial whaling caused the great whales' foremost natural predators, killer whales, to begin feeding more intensively on the smaller marine mammals, thus "fishing-down" this element of the marine food web. The timing of these events, information on the abundance, diet, and foraging behavior of both predators and prey, and feasibility analyses based on demographic and energetic modeling are all consistent with this hypothesis.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

An evaluation of density-dependent and density-independent influences on population growth rates in Weddell seals

Much of the existing literature that evaluates the roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors on population dynamics has been called into question in recent years because measurement errors were not properly dealt with in analyses. Using state-space models to account for measurement errors, we evaluated a set of competing models for a 22-year time series of mark-resight estimates of abundance for a breeding population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) studied in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We tested for evidence of direct density dependence in growth rates and evaluated whether equilibrium population size was related to seasonal sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We found strong evidence of negative density dependence in annual growth rates for a population whose estimated size ranged from 438 to 623 females during the study. Based on Bayes factors, a density-dependence-only model was favored over models that also included en! vironmental covariates. According to the favored model, the population had a stationary distribution with a mean of 497 females (SD = 60.5), an expected growth rate of 1.10 (95% credible interval 1.08-1.15) when population size was 441 females, and a rate of 0.90 (95% credible interval 0.87-0.93) for a population of 553 females. A model including effects of SOI did receive some support and indicated a positive relationship between SOI and population size. However, effects of SOI were not large, and including the effect did not greatly reduce our estimate of process variation. We speculate that direct density dependence occurred because rates of adult survival, breeding, and temporary emigration were affected by limitations on per capita food resources and space for parturition and pup-rearing. To improve understanding of the relative roles of various demographic components and their associated vital rates to population growth rate, mark-recapture methods can be applied that incorporate both environmental covariates and the seal abundance estimates that were developed here. An improved understanding of why vital rates change with changing population abundance will only come as we develop a better understanding of the processes affecting marine food resources in the Southern Ocean.

Ecology↗

Overview of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission collaborative research program to assess tsunami hazard for nuclear power plants on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) initiated a long-term research program to improve understanding of tsunami hazard levels for nuclear facilities in the United States. For this effort, the US NRC organized a collaborative research program with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with a goal of assessing tsunami hazard on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. Necessarily, the US NRC research program includes both seismic- and landslide-based tsunamigenic sources in both the near and the far fields. The inclusion of tsunamigenic landslides, an important category of sources that impact tsunami hazard levels for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts is a key difference between this program and most other tsunami hazard assessment programs. The initial phase of this work consisted of collection, interpretation, and analysis of available offshore data, with significant effort focused on characterizing offshore near-field landslides and analyzing their tsunamigenic potential and properties. In the next phase of research, additional field investigations will be conducted in key locations of interest and additional analysis will be undertaken. Simultaneously, the MOST tsunami generation and propagation model used by NOAA will first be enhanced to include landslide-based initiation mechanisms and then will be used to investigate the impact of the tsunamigenic sources identified and characterized by the USGS. The potential for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment will also be explore in the final phases of the program.

Conference Paper↗

Constraints on near-ridge magmatism using 40Ar/39Ar geochronology of enriched MORB from the 8°20' N seamount chain

Our understanding of the spatial-temporal-compositional relationships between off-axis magmatism and mid-ocean ridge spreading centers is limited. Determining the 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) lavas erupting near mid-ocean ridges (MOR) has been a challenge due to the characteristically low K 2 O contents in incompatible element-depleted normal MORB (NMORB). High-precision 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology is used here to determine ages of young, basaltic lavas erupted along the 8°20' N seamount chain west of the East Pacific Rise (EPR) axis that have a range of incompatible element enrichments (EMORB) suitable for 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology (e.g., K 2 O contents > 0.3 wt%). 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages were determined in 29 well-characterized basalts sampled using HOV Alvin and dredging. Detailed geochronology and geochemical analyses provide important constraints on the timing, distribution, and origins of lavas that constructed this extensive volcanic lineament relative to magmatism beneath the adjacent EPR axis. Seamount eruption ages are up to ∼1.6 Ma younger than the underlying lithosphere, supporting a model of prolonged off-axis magmatism for at least 2 Myrs at distances as great as ∼90 km from the ridge axis. Increasing geochemical heterogeneity with eruption distance reflects the diminishing effect of sub-ridge melt focusing. The range of geochemically distinct lavas erupted at given distances from the ridge highlights the dynamic nature of the near-ridge magmatic environment over Myr timescales. Linear ridge-like (EPR-parallel) morphotectonic features erupt the youngest and most incompatible element-enriched lavas of the entire seamount chain, indicating there is a recent change in the influence of mantle heterogeneity and off-axis melt metasomatism on the near-ridge lithospheric mantle. Changes in seamount morphologies are attributed to counter-clockwise rotation and southward migration of the nearby Siqueiros transform over the last few million years.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

Evidence from Cd/Ca ratios in foraminifera for greater upwelling off California 4,000 years ago

UPWELLING of nutrient-rich Pacific deep water along the North American west coast is ultimately driven by the temperature difference between air masses over land and over the ocean. The intensity of upwelling, and biological production in the region, could therefore be affected by anthropogenic climate change. Examination of the geological record is one way to study the link between climate and upwelling. Because Pacific deep water is enriched in cadmium, dissolved cadmium concentrations in coastal water off central California reflect the intensity of upwelling. By demonstrating that the Cd/Ca ratio in the shell of a benthic foraminifer, Elphidiella hannai, is proportional to the Cd concentration in coastal water, we show here that foraminiferal Cd/Ca ratios can be used to detect past changes in mean upwelling intensity. Examination of a sediment core from the mouth of San Francisco Bay reveals that foraminiferal Cd/Ca decreased by about 30% from 4,000 years ago to the present, probably because of a reduction in coastal upwelling. This observation is consistent with predictions of atmospheric general circulation models that northwesterly winds, which drive upwelling, became weaker over this period as summer insolation of the Northern Hemisphere decreased.

Nature↗

Geographic information systems compilation of geophysical, geologic, and tectonic data for the Bering Shelf, Chukchi Sea, Arctic margin, and adjacent landmasses

The accompanying CD-ROM contains a compilation of geophysical, geologic, and tectonic data for the Bering Shelf, the Chukchi Sea, the Arctic margin, and adjacent landmasses. These data sets focus on Alaska, the Russian Far East, and the continental shelves that link these two landmasses. For compatibility with other available geographic information system (GIS) products, our GIS compilation extends from 120°E to 115°W, and from 40°N to 80°N. This area encompasses the region from the modern Paciµc plate boundary of the Japan, Kurile, and Aleutian subduction zones, the Queen Charlotte transform fault, and the Cascadia subduction zone (in the south) to the continent-ocean transition from the Eurasian and North American continents to the Arctic Ocean (in the north); and from the diffuse Eurasian–North American plate boundary, including the probable Okhotsk plate (in the west) to the Alaskan-Canadian Cordilleran fold belt (in the east). The CD-ROM comprises thematic layers of spatial data sets for topography, gravity µeld, magnetic µeld, earthquakes, volcanoes, geology, tectonostratigraphic terranes, and cultural reference features, and also includes metadata (data about the data) for all these data sets. The spatial data sets can be viewed, analyzed, and plotted with commercial GIS software (ArcView and ARC/Info) or through a freeware program (ArcExplorer) that is included on this CD-ROM. This GIS compilation provides data for studies of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic collisional and accretionary tectonics that assembled this continental crust and of the neotectonics of active and passive plate margins in this region, and for constructing and interpreting geophysical, geologic, and tectonic models of the region.

Alaska↗

Sub-weekly to interannual variability of a high-energy shoreline

Sixty-one Global Positioning System (GPS), sub-aerial beach surveys were completed at 7 km long Ocean Beach, San Francisco, CA (USA), between April 2004 and March 2009. The five-year time series contains over 1 million beach elevation measurements and documents detailed changes in beach morphology over a variety of spatial, temporal, and physical forcing scales. Results show that seasonal processes dominate at Ocean Beach, with the seasonal increase and decrease in wave height being the primary driver of shoreline change. Storm events, while capable of causing large short-term changes in the shoreline, did not singularly account for a large percentage of the overall observed change. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first two modes account for approximately three-quarters of the variance in the data set and are represented by the seasonal onshore/offshore movement of sediment (60%) and the multi-year trend of shoreline rotation (14%). The longer-term trend of shoreline rotation appears to be related to larger-scale bathymetric change. An EOF-based decomposition technique is developed that is capable of estimating the shoreline position to within one standard deviation of the range of shoreline positions observed at most locations along the beach. The foundation of the model is the observed relationship between the temporal amplitudes of the first EOF mode and seasonally-averaged offshore wave height as well as the linear trend of shoreline rotation. This technique, while not truly predictive because of the requirement of real-time wave data, is useful because it can predict shoreline position to within reasonable confidence given the absence of field data once the model is developed at a particular site.

California↗

Regional crustal structure of Indonesia from receiver functions

Characterizing the crustal structure of Indonesia is important to gain a better understanding of its geodynamic evolution and improve seismic hazard assessments in the area. However, a unified crustal model of the entire Indonesian region and its surroundings is lacking. We present new maps of crustal thickness and bulk V p /V s ratio in Indonesia and the surrounding area that are obtained using P-wave receiver functions at 36 seismic stations from several permanent regional networks. The measured crustal thickness varies from ∼24 km to ∼38 km. The thickest crust, ∼38 km, is beneath Flores Island, southern Maluku, and neighboring northernmost Australia, whereas the thinnest crust, ∼24 km, is found under eastern Malaysia. Thus, crustal thickness varies by ∼14 km (from ∼24 km to ∼38 km) despite the small changes in elevation at the measurement points. The V p /V s ratios are 1.79 ± "> ± 0.11, with high values (>1.85) found along the Banda-Sunda arc-trench system. We attribute these high values to: (1) the presence of mafic island arc and oceanic crust and (2) partial melting within this volcanic region, which causes a larger decrease in S-wave velocities compared with P-wave velocities. The comparison of the seismic properties of Indonesian island arc crust, particularly the V p /V s ratio, with laboratory measurements and the petrology of the exhumed Talkeetna island arc, Alaska, allows us to infer the crustal composition of Indonesian island arc crust.

Tectonophysics↗

Response of the Miliolid Archaias angulatus to simulated ocean acidification

A common, but not universal, effect of ocean acidification on benthic foraminifera is a reduction in the growth rate. The miliolid Archaias angulatus is a high-Mg (>4 mole% MgCO 3 ), symbiont-bearing, soritid benthic foraminifer that contributes to Caribbean reef carbonate sediments. A laboratory culture study assessed the effects of reduced pH on the growth of A. angulatus . We observed a statistically significant 50% reduction in the growth rate (p < 0.01), calculated from changes in maximum diameter, from 160 &mu;m/28 days in the pH 8.0/pCO 2 air 480 ppm control group to 80 &mu;m/28 days at a treatment level of pH 7.6/pCO 2 air 1328 ppm. Additionally, pseudopore area, &delta; 18 O values, and Mg/Ca ratio all increased, albeit slightly in the latter two variables. The reduction in growth rate indicates that under a high-CO 2 setting, future A. angulatus populations will consist of smaller adults. A model using the results of this study estimates that at pH 7.6 A. angulatus carbonate production in the South Florida reef tract and Florida Bay decreases by 85%, from 0.27 Mt/yr to 0.04 Mt/yr, over an area of 9,000 km 2 .

Journal of Foraminiferal Research↗

A North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) of the Common Era

This study presents a synthesis of century-scale hydroclimate variations in North America for the Common Era (last 2000 years) using new age models of previously published multiple proxy-based paleoclimate data. This North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) examines regional hydroclimate patterns and related environmental indicators, including vegetation, lake water elevation, stream flow and runoff, cave drip rates, biological productivity, assemblages of living organisms, and salinity. Centennial-scale hydroclimate anomalies are obtained by iteratively sampling the proxy data on each of thousands of age model realizations and determining the fractions of possible time series indicating that the century-smoothed data was anomalously wet or dry relative to the 100 BCE to 1900 CE mean. Results suggest regionally asynchronous wet and dry periods over multidecadal to centennial timescales and frequent periods of extended regional drought. Most sites indicate drying during previously documented multicentennial periods of warmer Northern Hemisphere temperatures, particularly in the western U.S., central U.S., and Canada. Two widespread droughts were documented by the NAHS: from 50 BCE to 450 CE and from 800 to 1100 CE. Major hydroclimate reorganizations occurred out of sync with Northern Hemisphere temperature variations and widespread wet and dry anomalies occurred during both warm and cool periods. We present a broad assessment of paleoclimate relationships that highlights the potential influences of internal variability and external forcing and supports a prominent role for Pacific and Atlantic Ocean dynamics on century-scale continental hydroclimate.

Global and Planetary Change↗

Utilizing multichannel electrical resistivity methods to examine the dynamics of the fresh water–seawater interface in two Hawaiian groundwater systems

Multichannel electrical resistivity (ER) measurements were conducted at two contrasting coastal sites in Hawaii to obtain new information on the spatial scales and dynamics of the fresh water&ndash;seawater interface and rates of coastal groundwater exchange. At Kiholo Bay (located on the dry, Kona side of the Big Island) and at a site in Maunalua Bay (Oahu), there is an evidence for abundant submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). However, the hydrologic and geologic controls on coastal groundwater discharge are likely to be different at these two sites. While at Kiholo Bay SGD is predominantly through lava tubes, at the Maunalua Bay site exchange occurs mostly through nearshore submarine springs. In order to calculate SGD fluxes, it is important to understand the spatial and temporal scales of coastal groundwater exchange. From ER time series data, subsurface salinity distributions were calculated using site-specific formation factors. A salinity mass balance box model was then used to calculate rates of point source (i.e., spatially discreet) and total fresh water discharge. From these data, mean SGD rates were calculated for Kiholo Bay (&sim;9,200 m 3 /d) and for the Maunalua Bay site (&sim;5,900 m 3 /d). While such results are on the same order of magnitude to geochemical tracer-derived SGD rates, the ER SGD rates provide enhanced details of coastal groundwater exchange that can enable a more cohesive whole watershed perspective.

Hawai'i↗

Cohesive sediment modeling in a shallow estuary: Model and environmental implications of sediment parameter variation

Numerical models of sediment transport in estuarine systems rely on parameter values that are often poorly constrained and can vary on timescales relevant to model processes. The selection of parameter values can affect the accuracy of model predictions, while environmental variation of these parameters can impact the temporal and spatial ranges of sediment fluxes, erosion, and deposition in the real world. We implemented a numerical model of San Pablo Bay, an embayment within San Francisco Bay, California, for November–December 2014, and compared model outputs to observations of water level, velocity, wave parameters, salinity, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the shallow regions. Idealized model runs show that wind timing relative to the phase of the tides is the strongest control on sediment fluxes and bed erosion. We varied sediment erodibility in the outflow of the Petaluma River; while this causes erosion and deposition to vary strongly through the shallows system, total export from the shallows does not change. Model runs with realistic winds show that wind likely resuspends faster settling particles or allows for more particle flocculation; particle settling velocity controls system-wide sediment accumulation. At the margins of the system, the magnitude of SSC is closely tied to wind direction when winds occur during flood tide, but sediment deposition is less connected: Both bed evolution and SSC need to be considered in the prediction of marsh fate. Spatial patterns of light attenuation due to SSC is strongly tied to assumed settling velocity.

California↗

The M2 tide on the Amazon Shelf

As part of A Multidisciplinary Amazon Shelf Sediment Study (AMASSEDS), moored and shipboard current measurements made over the Amazon shelf during 1990–1991 have been analyzed to determine the dominant semidiurnal tidal constituent, the M 2 . These results have been combined with coastal sea level data from within the Amazon and Para Rivers, the adjacent shelf, and with satellite‐derived tidal elevation data from off the shelf to provide a more complete description of the M 2 tide in this complex river/shelf system. Near the Amazon River mouth the M 2 tide propagates across the shelf and through the mouth as a damped progressive wave, with its amplitude decreasing and phase increasing upriver. Over the adjacent shelf north of Cabo Norte, the M 2 tide approaches a damped standing wave, with large amplitudes (greater than 1.5 m) near the coast due to near resonance within the coastal embayment formed by the Cabo Norte shoal to the south and Cabo Cassipore to the north. The observed M 2 tidal currents are nearly rectilinear and oriented primarily across the local isobaths. Comparisons between tidal observations in both the North Channel and the Cabo Norte‐Cabo Cassipore embayment and a simple variable‐width channel tidal model indicate that (1) most of the M 2 tidal energy dissipation occurs over the mid‐ and inner shelf (in water depths less than 20 m) and (2) fluid muds found there cause a significant reduction (of order 50%) in the effective bottom friction felt by the M 2 tide. The approximate resonant period of the Cabo Norte‐Cabo Cassipore embayment is 11.9 hours, and at resonance the average energy dissipation per forcing period is roughly 2.2 times the average mechanical energy in the embayment. This damping rate is large enough that the tidal amplification is rather insensitive to forcing frequency, so that the response of the embayment to forcing over the semidiurnal band should be essentially the same. The vertical structure of the M 2 tidal current is examined at one outer shelf site located in 65‐m water depth. The observed semimajor axis increases logarithmically with height above bottom within the lowest 1–2 m and reaches a maximum in excess of 0.5 m/s at approximately 11 m above bottom. The mean ellipticity is small (less than 0.1) and positive, indicating clockwise rotation of a nearly rectilinear current, and the semimajor axis is oriented within 10° of the local cross‐isobath direction. The M 2 phase increases with height above bottom, with flood at the bottom leading flood at the surface by about 1 hour. A simple, local homogeneous tidal model with time‐ and space‐dependent eddy viscosity simulates the observed near‐bottom velocity reasonably well, however, the model suggests that stratification above the lowest few meters may significantly affect the tidal boundary layer structure at this site. The M 2 energy flux onto the Amazon shelf and into the Amazon and Para Rivers has been estimated using current and surface elevation data and the best fit variable‐width channel model results. The net M 2 energy flux into the mouths of the Amazon and Para Rivers is 0.47×10 10 W and 0.19×10 10 W, respectively. A net M 2 energy flux of about 3.3×10 10 W occurs onto the shelf between the North Channel of the Amazon River and Cabo Cassipore. This stretch of the Amazon shelf accounts for about 1.3% of the global dissipation of the M 2 tide.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

Status review of the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in Alaska and British Columbia

The Marbled Murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) is a small, diving seabird inhabiting inshore waters of the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. This species feeds on small, schooling fishes and zooplankton, and nests primarily on the moss-covered branches of large, old-growth conifers, and also, in some parts of its range, on the ground. We reviewed existing information on this species to evaluate its current status in the northern part of its range—Alaska (U.S.) and British Columbia (Canada). Within the southern part of its range (Washington, Oregon, and California, U.S.), the Marbled Murrelet was listed as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 1993, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) needed information on the species throughout its range for ESA deliberations. We compiled published information on the conservation status, population biology, foraging ecology, population genetics, population status and trends, demography, marine and nesting habitat characteristics, threats, and ongoing conservation efforts for Marbled Murrelets in Alaska and British Columbia. We conducted a new genetic study using samples from a segment of the range that had not been included in previous studies (Washington, Oregon) and additional nuclear intron and microsatellite markers. We also analyzed available at-sea survey data from several locations for trend. To understand the reasonableness of the empirical trend data, we developed demographic models incorporating stochasticity to discern what population trends were possible by chance. The genetic studies substantially confirmed previous findings on population structure in the Marbled Murrelet. Our present work finds three populations: (1) one comprising birds in the central and western Aleutian Islands; (2) one comprising birds in central California; and (3) one comprising birds within the center of the range from the eastern Aleutians to northern California. Our knowledge of genetic structure within this central population is limited and it requires additional study. Compiling available abundance information, we estimated that in the recent past, Marbled Murrelets in Alaska numbered on the order of 1 million birds. We were unable to generate a similar estimate for historical population size in British Columbia. Using trend information from at-sea surveys spanning a wide geographic range in Alaska, murrelet numbers declined significantly at five of eight trend sites at annual rates of -5.4 to -12.7 percent since the early 1990s. Applying these rates of decline to the historical population estimate, the current murrelet population in Alaska is projected to be on the order of 270,000 birds. This represents an overall population decline of about 70 percent during the past 25 years. In British Columbia, available trend data indicate that murrelet populations there have experienced similar declines. We updated a recent (2002) population estimate for British Columbia, concluding that there are now between 54,000 and 92,000 murrelets in British Columbia. The rates of decline we observed are within, but at the high end of, a range of rates expected by chance. Given that declines were estimated for sites over essentially the entire northern range of the species, there is cause for concern about the species’ status. In their marine habitats, Marbled Murrelets overlap with salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.) gillnetting operations in British Columbia and in Alaska (especially in Prince William Sound and Southeast Alaska), and annual bycatch mortality is likely in the low thousands per year, although bycatch rates are difficult to measure. The species’ inshore distribution coincides with high levels of vessel traffic and makes them especially vulnerable to both chronic oil pollution and to catastrophic spills (e.g., the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill [EVOS] in south-central Alaska, which is estimated to have killed 12,000 to 15,000 murrelets). In their forested nesting habitats, Marbled Murrelets have lost about 15 percent of their suitable nesting habitat in Southeast Alaska, and 33 to 49 percent in British Columbia, from industrial-scale logging within the past half century. Increased predation also may be a threat to murrelet populations, related to fragmentation and edge effects from logging and development, and recent population increases observed for some important murrelet predators, including Bald Eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ), Common Ravens ( Corvus corax ), and Steller’s Jays ( Cyanocitta stelleri ). Nesting habitat losses cannot explain the declines observed in areas where industrial logging has not occurred on a large scale (e.g., Prince William Sound) or at all (Glacier Bay). The apparent change in population size and rates of decline reported for the Marbled Murrelet are large, and we therefore considered alternative explanations and precedents for changes of similar magnitude in other marine wildlife populations in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The declines are likely real, and related to combined and cumulative effects from climate-related changes in the marine ecosystem (most likely the 1977 regime shift) and human activities (logging, gillnet bycatch, oil pollution). Much uncertainty about the decline could be alleviated by continuing to repeat boat surveys in Prince William Sound and lower Cook Inlet, and by repeating the boat survey of Southeast Alaska that was conducted in 1994. This survey used a statistically sound design and covered the region that has been and likely remains the center of the species’ abundance. Important questions remain to be addressed about methods for measuring population status and change, adult mortality (major sources, density dependence, seasonal concordance), and the movements of wintering populations.

Alaska, British Columbia↗

Increased nesting success of Hawaii Elepaio in response to the removal of invasive black rats

In Hawaii and other oceanic islands with few native land mammals, black rats (Rattus rattus) are among the most damaging invasive vertebrate species to native forest bird populations and habitats, due to their arboreal behavior and generalist foraging habits and habitat use. We evaluated the nesting response of Hawaii Elepaio (Chasiempis sandwichensis; Monarchidae), a generalist insectivore, to the removal of black rats using rodenticide in a before-after-control-impact study in high- and low-elevation mesic montane habitat recovering from long-term damage from introduced ungulates and weeds. We monitored nesting success and rat abundance during 2015–2016 before applying rodenticide bait in 2017 to remove rats from two 700 × 700 m treatment plots that were paired with 2 nontreatment plots of the same size. Rat abundance was reduced by 90% during treatment, with combined variables treatment and elevation best explaining the change using GLM methods and AIC model selection. The daily survival rate (DSR) of nests (n = 191) was greater on treated plots after rodenticide application (mean ± SE = 0.980 ± 0.004 treatment; 0.964 ± 0.004 nontreatment), modeled nest success increased from 29% to 50%, and apparent nest success (number of successful nests per total nests) increased from 37% to 52%. The most informative model for predicting DSR included the effect of treatment. Predation by rats was documented at 3 of 16 nests using video surveillance, and we observed additional evidence of rat predation during in-person nest monitoring. Rats targeted adults on the nest and sometimes removed intact eggs, leaving little trace of their activity. Our results demonstrate that reducing rat predation can immediately improve the nesting success of even a common bird species in habitat with a long history of forest restoration. Sustained predator control may be critical to accelerating the recovery of native forest bird communities.

Hawaii↗

Inelastic models of lithospheric stress - I. Theory and application to outer-rise plate deformation

Outer-rise stress distributions determined in the manner that mechanical engineers evaluate inelastic stress distributions within conventional materials are contrasted with those predicted using simple elastic-plate models that are frequently encountered in studies of outer-rise seismicity. This comparison indicates that the latter are inherently inappropriate for studies of intraplate earthquakes, which are a direct manifestation of lithospheric inelasticity. We demonstrate that the common practice of truncating elastically superimposed stress profiles so that they are not permitted to exceed laboratory-based estimates of lithospheric yield strength will result in an accurate characterization of lithospheric stress only under relatively restrictive circumstances. In contrast to elastic-plate models, which predict that lithospheric stress distributions depend exclusively upon the current load, inelastic plate models predict that stress distributions are also significantly influenced by the plate-loading history, and, in many cases, this influence is the dominant factor in determining the style of potential seismicity (e.g. thrust versus normal faulting). Numerous ‘intuitive’ interpretations of outer-rise earthquakes have been founded upon the implicit assumption that a unique relationship exists between a specified combination of plate curvature and in-plane force, and the resulting lithospheric stress distribution. We demonstrate that the profound influence of deformation history often invalidates such interpretations. Finally, we examine the reliability of ‘yield envelope’ representations of lithospheric strength that are constructed on the basis of empirically determined frictional sliding relationships and silicate plastic-flow laws. Although representations of this nature underestimate the strength of some major interplate faults, such as the San Andreas, they appear to represent a reliable characterization of the strength of intraplate oceanic lithosphere.

Geophysical Journal International↗

Fluctuating Arctic Sea ice thickness changes estimated by an in situ learned and empirically forced neural network model

Sea ice thickness (SIT) is a key parameter of scientific interest because understanding the natural spatiotemporal variability of ice thickness is critical for improving global climate models. In this paper, changes in Arctic SIT during 1982-2003 are examined using a neural network (NN) algorithm trained with in situ submarine ice draft and surface drilling data. For each month of the study period, the NN individually estimated SIT of each ice-covered pixel (25-km resolution) based on seven geophysical parameters (four shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes, surface air temperature, ice drift velocity, and ice divergence/convergence) that were cumulatively summed at each monthly position along the pixel's previous 3-yr drift track (or less if the ice was <3 yr old). Average January SIT increased during 1982-88 in most regions of the Arctic (+7.6 ?? 0.9 cm yr-1), decreased through 1996 Arctic-wide (-6.1 ?? 1.2 cm yr-1), then modestly increased through 2003 mostly in the central Arctic (+2.1 ?? 0.6 cm yr-1). Net ice volume change in the Arctic Ocean from 1982 to 2003 was negligible, indicating that cumulative ice growth had largely replaced the estimated 45 000 km3 of ice lost by cumulative export. Above 65??N, total annual ice volume and interannual volume changes were correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) at decadal and annual time scales, respectively. Late-summer ice thickness and total volume varied proportionally until the mid-1990s, but volume did not increase commensurate with the thickening during 1996-2002. The authors speculate that decoupling of the ice thickness-volume relationship resulted from two opposing mechanisms with different latitudinal expressions: a recent quasi-decadal shift in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the AO's neutral state facilitated ice thickening at high latitudes while anomalously warm thermal forcing thinned and melted the ice cap at its periphery. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗

Crevice-nesting auklets are early-successional species requiring disturbance to persist

Auklets ( Aethia spp.) are small seabirds, endemic to the North Pacific Ocean, that nest in rock crevices on islands in Alaska and Russia. Nesting habitats for least ( A. pusilla ) and crested ( A. cristatella ) auklet colonies in the southern part of their range (Aleutian and Kuril Islands) are becoming overgrown by vegetation, which is fertilized by the auklets, making rock crevices unavailable for breeding. Colonization of newly created volcanic habitats suggests that auklets are habitat-limited in the southern range. The largest colonies there of least and crested auklets exist on lava slopes <100 years old. We propose that in the south, volcanic activity is required to maintain auklet populations. In contrast, colonies in the northern Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk show no indication of habitat limitation. They occur in more persistent talus slope habitats maintained by weathering, slumping, frost heaving, and tumbling. Biological processes there are slower and vegetation communities not as developed. We propose a conceptual model describing the interaction of geological and biological processes that influence auklet demography. We conclude that least and crested auklets require episodic disturbance (provided by volcanoes, earthquakes, and rock fall deposits) to maintain access to nest crevices. Auklets thereby provide an example of disturbance-adapted, early successional species that self-inhibit if their habitat is not regularly disturbed.

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research↗