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At least 1,369 records · Page 76Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Movement mysteries unveiled: spatial ecology of juvenile green sea turtles

Locations of important foraging areas are not well defined for many marine species. Unraveling these mysteries is vital to develop conservation strategies for these species, many of which are threatened or endangered. Satellite-tracking is a tool that can reveal movement patterns at both broad and fine spatial scales, in all marine environments. This chapter presents records of the longest duration track of an individual juvenile green turtle (434 days) and highest number of tracking days in any juvenile green turtle study (5483 tracking days) published to date. In this chapter, we use spatial modeling techniques to describe movements and identify foraging areas for juvenile green turtles ( Chelonia mydas ) captured in a developmental habitat in south Texas, USA. Some green turtles established residency in the vicinity of their capture and release site, but most used a specific habitat feature (i.e., a jettied pass) to travel between the Gulf of Mexico and a nearby bay. Still others moved southward within the Gulf of Mexico into Mexican coastal waters, likely in response to decreasing water temperatures. These movements to waters off the coast of Mexico highlight the importance of international cooperation in restoration efforts undertaken on behalf of this imperiled species.

Texas↗
USGS2010

Evaluating ecological equivalence of created marshes: comparing structural indicators with stable isotope indicators of blue crab trophic support

This study sought to examine ecological equivalence of created marshes of different ages using traditional structural measures of equivalence, and tested a relatively novel approach using stable isotopes as a measure of functional equivalence. We compared soil properties, vegetation, nekton communities, and δ 13 C and δ 15 N isotope values of blue crab muscle and hepatopancreas tissue and primary producers at created (5-24 years old) and paired reference marshes in SW Louisiana. Paired contrasts indicated that created and reference marshes supported equivalent plant and nekton communities, but differed in soil characteristics. Stable isotope indicators examining blue crab food web support found that the older marshes (8 years+) were characterized by comparable trophic diversity and breadth compared to their reference marshes. Interpretation of results for the youngest site was confounded by the fact that the paired reference, which represented the desired end goal of restoration, contained a greater diversity of basal resources. Stable isotope techniques may give coastal managers an additional tool to assess functional equivalency of created marshes, as measured by trophic support, but may be limited to comparisons of marshes with similar vegetative communities and basal resources, or require the development of robust standardization techniques.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2008

Effects of a 2006 High-Flow Release from Tiber Dam on Channel Morphology at Selected Sites on the Marias River, Montana

In June 2006, an opportunistic high-flow release was made from Tiber Dam on the Marias River in Mont., to investigate possible alternatives for partially restoring the river's natural flow pattern and variability. At two sites along the river, we measured channel geometry before and after the high-flow release to evaluate channel change and alteration of physical habitat. Streamflow downstream from Tiber Dam has been stabilized by reduction of high flows and augmentation of low flows. This has produced flood-control benefits as well as some possible adverse environmental effects downstream from the dam. The 2006 high-flow release resulted in a downstream hydrograph with high flows of above-average magnitude in the post-dam flow regime of the Marias River. Timing of the peak and the declining limb of the release hydrograph were very similar to a historical, unregulated hydrograph of the Marias River. Furthermore, the high flow produced many of the qualitative elements of ecologically important physical processes that can be diminished or lost due to flow stabilization downstream from a dam. Typically dry back channels were occupied by flowing water. Islands were inundated, resulting in vegetation removal and sediment accretion that produced new disturbance patches of bare, moist substrate. Cut banks were eroded, and large woody debris was added to the river and redistributed. Flood-plain surfaces were inundated, producing substantial increases in wetted perimeter and spatially distinctive patterns of deposition associated with natural levee formation. The scale of the 2006 high flow - in terms of peak magnitude and the lateral extent of bottomland influenced by inundation or lateral channel movement - was roughly an order of magnitude smaller than the scale of an infrequent high flow in the pre-dam regime. Overall extent and composition of riparian vegetation will continue to change under a scaled-down, post-dam flow regime. For example, the importance of the non-native Russian-olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia) will likely increase. Reestablishing a more natural pattern of flows, however, should promote the increase of native cottonwood and willow (Salix spp.) in the new-albeit smaller-post-dam riparian ecosystem. A more natural flow regime will also likely provide improved habitat for native fish in the Marias River. Response of fish communities to such flows is the subject of current fisheries studies being conducted in cooperation with Bureau of Reclamation.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Hydrological controls on methylmercury distribution and flux in a tidal marsh

The San Francisco Estuary, California, contains mercury (Hg) contamination originating from historical regional gold and Hg mining operations. We measured hydrological and geochemical variables in a tidal marsh of the Palo Alto Baylands Nature Preserve to determine the sources, location, and magnitude of hydrological fluxes of methylmercury (MeHg), a bioavailable Hg species of ecological and health concern. Based on measured concentrations and detailed finite-element simulation of coupled surface water and saturated-unsaturated groundwater flow, we found pore water MeHg was concentrated in unsaturated pockets that persisted over tidal cycles. These pockets, occurring over 16% of the marsh plain area, corresponded to the marsh root zone. Groundwater discharge (e.g., exfiltration) to the tidal channel represented a significant source of MeHg during low tide. We found that nonchannelized flow accounted for up to 20% of the MeHg flux to the estuary. The estimated net flux of filter-passing (0.45 μm) MeHg toward estuary was 10 ± 5 ng m –2 day –1 during a single 12-h tidal cycle, suggesting an annual MeHg load of 1.17 ± 0.58 kg when the estimated flux was applied to present tidal marshes and planned marsh restorations throughout the San Francisco Estuary.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2024

Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels

Ecological disturbance can affect carbon storage and stability and is a key consideration for managing lands to preserve or increase ecosystem carbon to ameliorate the global greenhouse gas problem. Dryland soils are massive carbon reservoirs that are increasingly impacted by species invasions and altered fire regimes, including the exotic-grass-fire cycle in the extensive sagebrush steppe of North America. Direct measurement of total carbon in 1174 samples from landscapes of this region that differed in invasion and wildfire history revealed that their impacts depleted soil carbon by 42–49%, primarily in deep horizons, which could amount to 17.1–20.0 Tg carbon lost across the ~400,000 ha affected annually. Disturbance effects on soil carbon stocks were not synergistic, suggesting that soil carbon was lowered to a floor—i.e. a resistant base-level—beneath which further loss was unlikely. Restoration and maintenance of resilient dryland shrublands/rangelands could stabilize soil carbon at magnitudes relevant to the global carbon cycle.

Nature Communications, Earth & Environment↗
USGS2018

Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection

Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30‐day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species’ distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), a cold‐water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid‐century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our study demonstrates that even relatively small differences in the definitions of climate metrics can result in very different projections and reveal high uncertainty in predicted climate change effects.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2013

A computer model to forecast wetland vegetation changes resulting from restoration and protection in coastal Louisiana

The coastal wetlands of Louisiana are a unique ecosystem that supports a diversity of wildlife as well as a diverse community of commercial interests of both local and national importance. The state of Louisiana has established a 5-year cycle of scientific investigation to provide up-to-date information to guide future legislation and regulation aimed at preserving this critical ecosystem. Here we report on a model that projects changes in plant community distribution and composition in response to environmental conditions. This model is linked to a suite of other models and requires input from those that simulate the hydrology and morphology of coastal Louisiana. Collectively, these models are used to assess how alternative management plans may affect the wetland ecosystem through explicit spatial modeling of the physical and biological processes affected by proposed modifications to the ecosystem. We have also taken the opportunity to advance the state-of-the-art in wetland plant community modeling by using a model that is more species-based in its description of plant communities instead of one based on aggregated community types such as brackish marsh and saline marsh. The resulting model provides an increased level of ecological detail about how wetland communities are expected to respond. In addition, the output from this model provides critical inputs for estimating the effects of management on higher trophic level species though a more complete description of the shifts in habitat.

Louisiana↗
USGS2024

Restoration treatments enhance tree growth and alter climatic constraints during extreme drought

The frequency and severity of drought events are predicted to increase due to anthropogenic climate change, with cascading effects across forested ecosystems. Management activities such as forest thinning and prescribed burning, which are often intended to mitigate fire hazard and restore ecosystem processes, may also help promote tree resistance to drought. However, it is unclear whether these treatments remain effective during the most severe drought conditions or whether their impacts differ across environmental gradients. We used tree-ring data from a system of replicated, long-term (>20 years) experiments in the southwestern United States to evaluate the effects of forest restoration treatments (i.e., evidence-based thinning and burning) on annual growth rates (i.e., basal area increment; BAI) of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ), a broadly distributed and heavily managed species in western North America. The study sites were established at the onset of the most extreme drought event in at least 1200 years and span much of the climatic niche of Rocky Mountain ponderosa pine. Across sites, tree-level BAI increased due to treatment, where trees in treated units grew 133.1% faster than trees in paired, untreated units. Likewise, trees in treated units grew an average of 85.6% faster than their pre-treatment baseline levels (1985 to ca. 2000), despite warm, dry conditions in the post-treatment period (ca. 2000–2018). Variation in the local competitive environment promoted variation in BAI, and larger trees were the fastest-growing individuals, irrespective of treatment. Tree thinning and prescribed fire altered the climatic constraints on growth, decreasing the effects of belowground moisture availability and increasing the effects of atmospheric evaporative demand over multi-year timescales. Our results illustrate that restoration treatments can enhance tree-level growth across sites spanning ponderosa pine's climatic niche, even during recent, extreme drought events. However, shifting climatic constraints, combined with predicted increases in evaporative demand in the southwestern United States, suggest that the beneficial effects of such treatments on tree growth may wane over the upcoming decades.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas↗
USGS2025

Re-oligotrophy in the Upper Mississippi River, USA, occurred in just a few years

Ecological systems can undergo large changes and regime shifts that are either catastrophic, neutral, or desirable. Rivers worldwide have recently undergone desirable regime shifts related to re-oligotrophy, which is a notable and ongoing reduction in concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total N, total P, or phytoplankton. For example, the Upper Mississippi River, USA, has experienced major water-quality changes in multiple river reaches in recent decades. In this study, we sought to understand the timing and magnitude of re-oligotrophy in the Mississippi River over a 20-y period. We used 2 topological data analysis algorithms to address hypotheses related to the following questions: What were the order and timing of water-quality changes? What was the time period over which the major changes occurred? What was the magnitude of water-quality change before and after change points (i.e., specific years when water-quality conditions transitioned abruptly to new states)? We examined 6 water-quality state variables that defined the ecological regime for the Upper Mississippi River. In one river reach, we found that strong reductions in phytoplankton/chlorophyll a had occurred first (2008), followed by total P (2013), and last in TSS (2014). In a downriver reach, we found notable reductions for chlorophyll a (2007) but substantial increases in TSS (2013). In both reaches, the water-quality changes trended over ≥15 y, but the largest changes and a likely regime shift occurred in just 6 y. The timing (2007–2014) and range (~6 y) of water-quality changes were similar between the 2 river reaches, but the directionality of the regime shift indicated re-oligotrophy for the upstream reach and water-quality degradation for the downstream reach. Topological methods applied to long-term datasets can aid our understanding of re-oligotrophication and degradation processes and may help resource managers restore desirable regimes.

Freshwater Science↗
USGS2019

Climate-driven state shifts in the Prairie Pothole Region: Assessing future impacts relevant to the management of wetland habitats critical to waterfowl

Embedded within the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are millions of small, depressional wetlands that annually support 50–80% of the continent’s waterfowl production. We recently assembled evidence that demonstrates a change towards a wetter climate that is driving a shift in the state of the region’s wetland ecosystems. This ecological state-shift has been primarily the result of a sustained wet climate that has influenced timing and magnitude of surface-water inputs to wetlands, connections to groundwater, and inputs of dissolved salts. As climate influences continue to change in the PPR, it is important to understand the potential of these changes to impact wetland habitats important for waterfowl production. Previous model simulations of prairie-pothole wetlands under future climate scenarios projected decreases in the ability of wetlands to facilitate waterfowl production throughout the majority of what is currently the most productive portion of the region. Results from these modeling efforts also suggested that suitable waterfowl breeding-habitat would be limited mostly to the southeastern portion of the PPR, a portion of the region in which most depressional wetlands (> 90%) have been drained. Thus, if these modeled outcomes materialize, a significant restoration effort would be needed in the southeastern PPR to support waterfowl production. However, the models used in earlier efforts were developed from a small number of wetlands using data from a relatively dry period and did not allow for changing mechanisms influencing surface-water, groundwater and dissolved salt inputs to prairie-pothole wetlands. The primary objective of our research is to improve our understanding of future climate change on impacts to wetland ecosystems and breeding waterfowl habitat in the PPR. We used a newly developed Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model to estimate wetland ecosystem responses to 32 distinct climate models under 2 different emissions scenarios. Unlike previous wetland hydrology models, the PHyLiSS model allows for shifting hydrological and geochemical mechanisms influencing wetland ecosystems. We modeled one average-sized seasonal wetland basin at 18 different geographic locations (hereafter “sites”) across the PPR with 3 sites represented for each of 6 ecoregions coincident to early research. We applied the PHyLiSS model using historical daily precipitation and temperature data from 1982–2015 and developed linear models relative to ponded water depth in the simulated wetlands and the observed regional WBPHS May Pond count number for 16 of the 18 sites. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios we found a projected change in May pond numbers from -23% to +.02% when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21 st century (2070–2099). We also found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds will shift in the future. These results suggest that management and conservation strategies for wetlands in the PPR should continue to focus on areas where high densities of intact wetland basins support large numbers of breeding duck pairs.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2023

An integral projection model for gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) utilizing density-dependent age-0 survival

Gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) is a common freshwater fish species found throughout the central and eastern portions of North America. Within these regions, gizzard shad play several critical roles in the freshwater community such as serving as prey for other fish species and translocating nutrients from substrates into the water column. Because of this, it is important to understand gizzard shad population dynamics. Here, we introduce an integral projection model (IPM) for gizzard shad that incorporates empirical information from sources including Long Term Resource Monitoring (LTRM) upper Mississippi River restoration data. IPMs are a generalization of stage-based, matrix population models that have been used to describe a wide range of organisms, and as such are a natural choice for gizzard shad because many aspects of their life cycle have been studied. We tested model outputs against empirical patterns reported for gizzard shad from a different location along the Illinois River (La Grange Reach). Results of our work indicate that our model could serve as an important tool for predicting patterns within gizzard shad populations.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2014

Long-term effects of seeding after wildfire on vegetation in Great Basin shrubland ecosystems

1. Invasive annual grasses alter fire regimes in shrubland ecosystems of the western USA, threatening ecosystem function and fragmenting habitats necessary for shrub-obligate species such as greater sage-grouse. Post-fire stabilization and rehabilitation treatments have been administered to stabilize soils, reduce invasive species spread and restore or establish sustainable ecosystems in which native species are well represented. Long-term effectiveness of these treatments has rarely been evaluated. 2. We studied vegetation at 88 sites where aerial or drill seeding was implemented following fires between 1990 and 2003 in Great Basin (USA) shrublands. We examined sites on loamy soils that burned only once since 1970 to eliminate confounding effects of recurrent fire and to assess soils most conducive to establishment of seeded species. We evaluated whether seeding provided greater cover of perennial seeded species than burned–unseeded and unburned–unseeded sites, while also accounting for environmental variation. 3. Post-fire seeding of native perennial grasses generally did not increase cover relative to burned–unseeded areas. Native perennial grass cover did, however, increase after drill seeding when competitive non-natives were not included in mixes. Seeding non-native perennial grasses and the shrub Bassia prostrata resulted in more vegetative cover in aerial and drill seeding, with non-native perennial grass cover increasing with annual precipitation. Seeding native shrubs, particularly Artemisia tridentata , did not increase shrub cover or density in burned areas. Cover of undesirable, non-native annual grasses was lower in drill seeded relative to unseeded areas, but only at higher elevations. 4. Synthesis and applications. Management objectives are more likely to be met in high-elevation or precipitation locations where establishment of perennial grasses occurred. On lower and drier sites, management objectives are unlikely to be met with seeding alone. Intensive restoration methods such as invasive plant control and/or repeated sowings after establishment failures due to weather may be required in subsequent years. Managers might consider using native-only seed mixtures when establishment of native perennial grasses is the goal. Post-fire rehabilitation provides a land treatment example where long-term monitoring can inform adaptive management decisions to meet future objectives, particularly in arid landscapes where recovery is slow.

Great Basin↗
USGS2018

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Bombay Hook National Wildlife Refuge, Delaware, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop a prototype tool for optimizing salt marsh management decisions at the Bombay Hook National Wildlife Refuge in Delaware. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of eight salt marsh management units within the refuge and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that would be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per salt marsh management unit, that would maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Results indicated that for the objectives and actions considered here, total management benefits would increase consistently up to approximately \$300,000, but that further expenditures would yield diminishing return on investment. Management actions selected within optimal portfolios at total costs less than \$300,000 included hydrologic restoration, recontouring adjacent uplands to facilitate marsh migration, and burning the marsh. The prototype presented here provides a framework for decision making at the Bombay Hook National Wildlife Refuge that can be updated as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuge.

Delaware↗
USGS2024

Rising water temperature in rivers: Ecological impacts and future resilience

Rising water temperatures in rivers due to climate change are already having observable impacts on river ecosystems. Warming water has both direct and indirect impacts on aquatic life, and further aggravates pervasive issues such as eutrophication, pollution, and the spread of disease. Animals can survive higher temperatures through physiological and/or genetic acclimation, behavioral and phenological change, and range shifts to more suitable locations. As such, those animals that are adapted to cool-water regions typically found in high altitudes and latitudes where there are fewer dispersal opportunities are most at risk of future extinction. However, sub-lethal impacts on animal physiology and phenology, body-size, and trophic interactions could have significant population-level effects elsewhere. Rivers are vulnerable to warming because historic management has typically left them exposed to solar radiation through the removal of riparian shade, and hydrologically disconnected longitudinally, laterally, and vertically. The resilience of riverine ecosystems is also limited by anthropogenic simplification of habitats, with implications for the dispersal and resource use of resident organisms. Due to the complex indirect impacts of warming on ecosystems, and the species-specific physiological and behavioral response of organisms to warming, predicting how river ecosystems will change in the future is challenging. Restoring rivers to provide connectivity and heterogeneity of conditions would provide resilience to a range of expected co-occurring pressures, including warming, and should be considered a priority as part of global strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation.

WIREs Water↗
USGS2017

Integrating active restoration with environmental flows to improve native riparian tree establishment in the Colorado River Delta

Drastic alterations to river hydrology, land use change, and the spread of the nonnative shrub, tamarisk (Tamarix spp.), have led to the degradation of riparian habitat in the Colorado River Delta in Mexico. Delivery of environmental flows to promote native cottonwood (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) recruitment in human-impacted riparian systems can be unsuccessful due to flow-magnitude constraints and altered abiotic–biotic feedbacks. In 2014, an experimental pulse flow of water was delivered to the Colorado River in Mexico as part of the U.S.-Mexico binational agreement, Minute 319. We conducted a field experiment to assess the effects of vegetation removal, seed augmentation, and environmental flows, separately and in combination, on germination and first-year seedling establishment of cottonwood, willow, and tamarisk at five replicate sites along 5 river km. The relatively low-magnitude flow deliveries did not substantively restore natural fluvial processes of erosion, sediment deposition, and vegetation scour, but did provide wetted surface soils, shallow groundwater, and low soil salinity. Cottonwood and willow only established in wetted, cleared treatments, and establishment was variable in these treatments due to variable site conditions and inundation duration and timing. Wetted soils, bare surface availability, soil salinity, and seed availability were significant factors contributing to successful cottonwood and willow germination, while soil salinity and texture affected seedling persistence over the growing season. Tamarisk germinated and persisted in a wider range of environmental conditions than cottonwood and willow, including in un-cleared treatment areas. Our results suggest that site management can increase cottonwood and willow recruitment success from low-magnitude environmental flow events, an approach that can be applied in other portions of the Delta and to other human-impacted riparian systems across the world with similar ecological limitations.

Colorado River↗
USGS2016

Gravel-bed river floodplains are the ecological nexus of glaciated mountain landscapes

Gravel-bed river floodplains in mountain landscapes disproportionately concentrate diverse habitats, nutrient cycling, productivity of biota, and species interactions. Although stream ecologists know that river channel and floodplain habitats used by aquatic organisms are maintained by hydrologic regimes that mobilize gravel-bed sediments, terrestrial ecologists have largely been unaware of the importance of floodplain structures and processes to the life requirements of a wide variety of species. We provide insight into gravel-bed rivers as the ecological nexus of glaciated mountain landscapes. We show why gravel-bed river floodplains are the primary arena where interactions take place among aquatic, avian, and terrestrial species from microbes to grizzly bears and provide essential connectivity as corridors for movement for both aquatic and terrestrial species. Paradoxically, gravel-bed river floodplains are also disproportionately unprotected where human developments are concentrated. Structural modifications to floodplains such as roads, railways, and housing and hydrologicaltering hydroelectric or water storage dams have severe impacts to floodplain habitat diversity and productivity, restrict local and regional connectivity, and reduce the resilience of both aquatic and terrestrial species, including adaptation to climate change. To be effective, conservation efforts in glaciated mountain landscapes intended to benefit the widest variety of organisms need a paradigm shift that has gravel-bed rivers and their floodplains as the central focus and that prioritizes the maintenance or restoration of the intact structure and processes of these critically important systems throughout their length and breadth.

Science Advances↗
USGS2024

Simulating past and future fire impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems

Worldwide, large wildfires are becoming increasingly common, leading to economic damages and threatening ecosystems and human health. Under future climate change, more frequent fire disturbance may push ecosystems into non-forested alternative stable states. Fire-prone ecosystems such as those in the Mediterranean Basin are expected to be particularly vulnerable, but the position of tipping points is unclear. We compare long-term palaeoecological data from Sardinia with output from a process-based dynamic vegetation model to investigate the mechanisms controlling the complex interactions between fire, climate, and vegetation in the past and the future. Our results show that past vegetation changes from Erica -shrublands to mixed evergreen-broadleaved Quercus ilex -dominated forests were driven by a climate-induced fire regime shift. By simulating vegetation dynamics under varying fire regimes, we could reproduce Holocene vegetation trajectories and mechanistically identify tipping points. Without an immediate reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, we simulate future expansion of fire-prone Mediterranean maquis and increasing fire occurrence. Similarly, high anthropogenic ignition frequencies and plantations of non-native, highly flammable trees could induce a shift to fire-adapted Erica shrublands. However, our simulations indicate that if global warming can be kept below 2°C, Quercus ilex forests will be able to persist and effectively reduce fire occurrences and impacts, making them a valuable restoration target in Mediterranean ecosystems. Synthesis . By combining long-term records of ecosystem change with a dynamic vegetation model, we show that past climate-driven fire regime shifts were the main driver of vegetation change, creating alternative stable states that persisted over centuries. Projected future climate change exceeding Holocene variability leads to pronounced vegetation changes and increased fire risks in our simulations, requiring new fire management strategies to maintain current ecosystem services.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2024

Spatio-temporal distribution of adult Pacific lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus relative to habitat fragmentation

Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ), a fish species native to the Pacific Northwest (USA), have distinctive cultural and ecological value but determining their spatial and temporal distribution is challenging due to a general lack systematic monitoring. In this study, we used counts of Pacific lamprey redds to model the probability of occurrence and abundance of Pacific lamprey based on environmental covariates including artificial barriers, assuming higher predicted lamprey redds translates to more suitable spawning habitats. Using generalized linear mixed zero-inflated models, results suggest that Pacific lamprey abundance was generally lower in high gradient streams, further from the ocean. Stream reaches with warmer spring water temperatures and greater historical median spring flows supported higher abundances. Lamprey occurrence was primarily influenced by spring water temperatures and distance from the ocean. We further observed that when streams warm beyond 18°C, confidence intervals around the abundance estimates widen and zero-inflation increases, indicating a decrease in occurrence. One objective of the study was to recommend where barrier removal or restoration should be prioritized to increase passage and thus access to upstream habitats. We considered artificial barriers to primarily influence the probability of occurrence through access. The barrier variable in this model had a negative effect on the probability of lamprey occurrence, but it was not a strong predictor in the model. While we are not able to suggest specific locations that would most benefit barrier removal or improvement based on these model results, we can identify the watersheds with a higher probability to support Pacific lamprey and provide potential additional habitats by improving habitat connectivity. Focusing restoration and/ or removal of barriers on watersheds in the Mid-South region of the Oregon Coast (i.e., Alsea, Siuslaw, Coos, Coquille, and Sixes rivers) with higher habitat suitability could prioritize use of limited funds, increase the probability of benefiting Pacific lamprey, and potentially other native lampreys and migratory (e.g., salmon, steelhead; Oncorhynchus ) species. Although this manuscript focuses on the Oregon Coast region, the methods are transferrable to other regions where Pacific lamprey are present.

Oregon↗