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At least 1,369 records · Page 76Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Effects of large-scale wetland loss on network connectivity of the Rainwater Basin, Nebraska

Context The Rainwater Basin region in south-central Nebraska supports a complex network of spatially-isolated wetlands that harbor diverse floral and faunal communities. Since European settlement, many wetlands have been lost from the network, which has increased distances among remaining wetlands. As a result, populations of wildlife species with limited dispersal capabilities may have become isolated and face greater local extinction risks. Objectives We compared the pre-European settlement and current extent of the Rainwater Basin network to assess the effects of wetland losses on network connectivity for a range of maximum dispersal distances. Methods We constructed network models for a range of maximum dispersal distances and calculated network metrics to assess changes in network connectivity and the relative importance of individual wetlands in regulating flow. Results Since European settlement, the number of wetlands in the Rainwater Basin has decreased by >90%. The average distance to the nearest neighboring wetland has increased by 150% to ~1.2 km, and the dispersal distance necessary to travel throughout the whole network has increased from 3.5 to 10.0 km. Last, relative importance of individual wetlands depended on the maximum dispersal distance. Which wetlands to preserve to maintain connectivity might therefore depend on the dispersal capabilities of the species or taxa of interest. Conclusions To preserve a broad range of biodiversity, conservation efforts should focus on preserving dense clusters of wetlands at fine spatial scales to maintain current levels of network connectivity, and restoring connections between clusters to facilitate long-range dispersal of species with limited dispersal capabilities.

Nebraska↗
USGS2002

Demographic consequences of inbreeding and outbreeding in Arnica montana: A field experiment

1. The genetic constitution of populations may significantly affect demography. Founder populations or isolated remnants may show inbreeding depression, while established populations can be strongly adapted to the local environment. Gene exchange between populations can lead to better performance if heterozygosity levels are restored (heterosis), or to reduced performance if coadapted gene complexes are disrupted (outbreeding depression). 2. Five populations of the self-incompatible perennial Arnica montana (Asteraceae) were analysed for the demographic consequences of inbreeding and of intra- and interpopulation outcrossing, using both small and large populations as donors for the latter. We analysed seed production and seed weight and monitored growth, survival and flowering of offspring introduced as seeds and as 4-week-old seedlings in a 4-year field experiment. 3. Reduced seed set after selfing was probably due to the self-incompatibility system rather than to inbreeding depression. There was a significant increase for seed set after interpopulation crosses, which resulted from the alleviation of low mate availability in one of the small populations. 4. Significant inbreeding depression was observed for growth rates of plants introduced as seedlings. We found significant heterosis for flowering probability of plants introduced as seeds, but for plants introduced as seedlings, heterosis for seedling size and flowering probability was only marginally significant. Outbreeding depression was not observed. 5. The results of this study are important for reinforcement measures in small, remnant populations. Significant differences among populations for all measured fitness components suggest that reinforcement is best achieved using material from several populations. 6. The observed higher survival of seedlings as compared with seeds suggests that it is better to plant individuals than to sow. Sowing, however, is easier and cheaper, and was more likely to eliminate poorly adapted genotypes before they contribute to the next generation.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2017

Host density increases parasite recruitment but decreases host risk in a snail-trematode system

Most species aggregate in local patches. High host density in patches increases contact rate between hosts and parasites, increasing parasite transmission success. At the same time, for environmentally-transmitted parasites, high host density can decrease infection risk to individual hosts, because infective stages are divided among all hosts in a patch, leading to safety in numbers. We tested these predictions using the California horn snail, Cerithideopsis californica (=Cerithidea californica), which is the first intermediate host for at least 19 digenean trematode species in California estuaries. Snails become infected by ingesting trematode eggs or through penetration by free-swimming miracidia that hatch from trematode eggs deposited with final-host (bird or mammal) feces. This complex life cycle decouples infective-stage production from transmission, raising the possibility of an inverse relationship between host density and infection risk. In a field survey, higher snail density was associated with increased trematode (infected snail) density, but decreased trematode prevalence, consistent with either safety in numbers, parasitic castration, or both. To determine the extent to which safety in numbers drove the negative snail density-trematode prevalence association, we manipulated uninfected snail density in 83 cages at eight sites within Carpinteria Salt Marsh (CA, USA). At each site, we quantified snail density and used data on final-host (bird and raccoon) distributions to control for between-site variation in infective-stage supply. After three months, overall trematode infections per cage increased with snail-biomass density. For egg-transmitted trematodes, per-snail infection risk decreased with snail-biomass density in the cage and surrounding area, whereas per-snail infection risk did not decrease for miracidium-transmitted trematodes. Furthermore, both trematode recruitment and infection risk increased with infective-stage input, but this was significant only for miracidium-transmitted species. A model parameterized with our experimental results and snail densities from 524 field transects estimated that safety in numbers, when combined with host aggregation, halved per-capita infection risk in this snail population. We conclude that, depending on transmission mode, host density can enhance parasite recruitment and reduce per-capita infection risk.

Ecology↗
USGS2019

The hydrologic benefits of wetland and prairie restoration in western Minnesota—Lessons learned at the Glacial Ridge National Wildlife Refuge, 2002–15

Conversion of agricultural lands to wetlands and native prairie is widely viewed as beneficial because it can restore natural ecological and hydrologic functions. Some of these functions, such as reduced peak flows and improved water quality, are often attributed to restoration; however, such benefits have not been quantified at a small scale. To inform future restoration efforts, especially in northern prairie settings, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Red Lake Watershed District, compared the hydrology of the Nation’s largest wetland and prairie restoration, Glacial Ridge National Wildlife Refuge, before and after restoration. Wetland and prairie restorations resulted in substantial changes in flows through the hydrologic cycle, in reduction of overland runoff and ditch flow during storms, and in improvements in water quality. Wetland and prairie restorations within the six basins characterized in this study resulted in a 14-percent decrease of cropland, a 6-percent increase of wetlands, and a 19-percent increase of native prairie between 2002 and 2015. During the same period, runoff rate decreased 33 percent (as a proportion of precipitation) and ditch flow rate decreased by 23 percent. Areal groundwater recharge rate increased from 30 to 35 percent (16 percent relative change in flow rate). Base flow as a proportion of total ditch flow increased from 25 to 35 percent (a 40-percent relative change). Peak ditch flow from storms decreased, ditch-flow recessions lengthened, and base flow from groundwater discharge increased, though only a small amount in some basins. These changes reduce the amount of ditch water leaving the study area, reducing flows that contribute to downstream flooding. Median surficial groundwater and ditch-water nitrate concentrations decreased by 79 and 53 percent, respectively. Median ditch-water suspended-sediment concentration decreased by 64 percent. Neither the density of restorations nor the beneficial changes in hydrology were evenly distributed in the study area. The amount of hydrologic benefits within an individual ditch basin did not relate directly with the amount of restoration in that basin; however, the landscape characteristics that related most closely with hydrologic benefits were the area of a basin underlain by a surficial aquifer and the area of drained wetlands (indicating the potential for wetland restoration). In western Minnesota, the basins underlain by surficial aquifers that contain large areas of drained wetlands are the uplands of the Alexandria Moraine Complex and the beaches of glacial Lake Agassiz on the eastern side of the western one-third of Minnesota, north of Wilmar, Minnesota. These findings provide resource managers with information that can help focus restoration resources in areas where the greatest hydrologic benefits can be realized.

Minnesota↗
USGS2026

Assessing environmental influences on gene flow for a migratory ungulate in a fire-prone landscape

Context Migratory species traverse long distances across complex landscape mosaics. Shifts in environmental attributes across space and time could affect movement paths and genetic connectivity of migratory species. Objectives We identified boundaries to genetic connectivity based on population structure and evaluated environmental influences on gene flow in a migratory ungulate. We projected how genetic connectivity might be affected by actual wildfire events. Methods We collected over 168,400 GPS locations for 97 bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) and estimated kinship with 5,140 single nucleotide polymorphisms for 95 individuals. We identified subpopulations and employed machine-learning optimization to evaluate how environmental attributes affect gene flow between them. We projected future genetic connectivity based on recent landscape changes. Results We observed that water bodies and > 70% canopy cover may limit effective dispersal, suggesting that shifts in these landscape attributes, influenced by climate and vegetation management, may affect future gene flow. We also predicted recent wildfire events will change gene flow between three subpopulations, predicting more flow where fire reduced canopy cover at a pinchpoint near a linear lake and less flow where fire was internal to the subpopulation. Conclusions Modifications in canopy cover could be applied to facilitate or impede connectivity and gene flow, depending on management goals. Large, semi-linear lakes could form movement barriers in other bighorn populations. Recent wildfires will likely increase gene flow between semi-isolated subpopulations, with implications for disease management. As wildfire and tree encroachment and densification increase, gene flow between other spatially structured populations in similar landscapes may shift.

British Columbia, Montana↗
USGS2023

Metabolically diverse microorganisms mediate methylmercury formation under nitrate-reducing conditions in a dynamic hydroelectric reservoir

Brownlee Reservoir is a mercury (Hg)-impaired hydroelectric reservoir that exhibits dynamic hydrological and geochemical conditions and is located within the Hells Canyon Complex in Idaho, USA. Methylmercury (MeHg) contamination in fish is a concern in the reservoir. While MeHg production has historically been attributed to sulfate-reducing bacteria and methanogenic archaea, microorganisms carrying the hgcA gene are taxonomically and metabolically diverse and the major biogeochemical cycles driving mercury (Hg) methylation are not well understood. In this study, Hg speciation and redox-active compounds were measured throughout Brownlee Reservoir across the stratified period in four consecutive years (2016–2019) to identify the location where and redox conditions under which MeHg is produced. Metagenomic sequencing was performed on a subset of samples to characterize the microbial community with hgcA and identify possible links between biogeochemical cycles and MeHg production. Biogeochemical profiles suggested in situ water column Hg methylation was the major source of MeHg. These profiles, combined with genome-resolved metagenomics focused on hgcA -carrying microbes, indicated that MeHg production occurs in this system under nitrate- or manganese-reducing conditions, which were previously thought to preclude Hg-methylation. Using this multidisciplinary approach, we identified the cascading effects of interannual variability in hydrology on the redox status, microbial metabolic strategies, abundance and metabolic diversity of Hg methylators, and ultimately MeHg concentrations throughout the reservoir. This work expands the known conditions conducive to producing MeHg and suggests that the Hg-methylation mitigation efforts by nitrate or manganese amendment may be unsuccessful in some locations.

Idaho↗
USGS2022

Methods for robust estimates of tree biomass from pollen accumulation rates: Quantifying paleoecological reconstruction uncertainty

Pollen accumulation rates (PAR, grains cm –2 year –1 ) have been shown to be a reliable but methodologically complex bioproxy for quantitative reconstruction of past tree abundance. In a prior study, we found that the PARs of major tree taxa – Pseudotsuga , Pinus , Notholithocarpus , and the pollen group TC (Taxaceae and Cupressaceae families) – were robust and precise estimators of contemporary tree biomass. This paper expands our earlier work. Here, we more fully evaluate the errors associated with biomass reconstructions to identify weaknesses and recommend improvements in PAR-based reconstructions of forest biomass. We account for uncertainty in our biomass proxy in a formal, coherent fashion. The greatest error was introduced by the age models, underscoring the need for improved statistical approaches to age-depth modeling. Documenting the uncertainty in pollen vegetation models should be standard practice in paleoecology. We also share insights gained from the delineation of the relevant source area of pollen, advances in Bayesian 210 Pb modeling, the importance of site selection, and the use of independent data to corroborate biomass estimates. Lastly, we demonstrate our workflow with a new dataset of reconstructed tree biomass between 1850 and 2018 AD from lakes in the Klamath Mountains, California. Our biomass records followed a broad trend of low mean biomass in the ∼1850s followed by large contemporary increases, consistent with expectations of forest densification due to twentieth century fire suppression policies in the American West. More recent reconstructed tree biomass estimates also corresponded with silviculture treatments occurring within the relevant source area of pollen of our lake sites.

California↗
USGS2021

Genetic and morphological characterization of the freshwater mussel clubshell species complex (Pleurobema clava and Pleurobema oviforme) to inform conservation planning

The shell morphologies of the freshwater mussel species Pleurobema clava (federally endangered) and Pleurobema oviforme (species of concern) are similar, causing considerable taxonomic confusion between the two species over the last 100 years. While P. clava was historically widespread throughout the Ohio River basin and tributaries to the lower Laurentian Great Lakes, P. oviforme was confined to the Tennessee and the upper Cumberland River basins. We used two mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes, 13 novel nuclear DNA microsatellite markers, and shell morphometrics to help resolve this taxonomic confusion. Evidence for a single species was apparent in phylogenetic analyses of each mtDNA gene, revealing monophyletic relationships with minimal differentiation and shared haplotypes. Analyses of microsatellites showed significant genetic structuring, with four main genetic clusters detected, respectively, in the upper Ohio River basin, the lower Ohio River and Great Lakes, and upper Tennessee River basin, and a fourth genetic cluster, which included geographically intermediate populations in the Ohio and Tennessee river basins. While principal components analysis (PCA) of morphometric variables (i.e., length, height, width, and weight) showed significant differences in shell shape, only 3% of the variance in shell shape was explained by nominal species. Using Linear Discriminant and Random Forest (RF) analyses, correct classification rates for the two species' shell forms were 65.5% and 83.2%, respectively. Random Forest classification rates for some populations were higher; for example, for North Fork Holston (HOLS), it was >90%. While nuclear DNA and shell morphology indicate that the HOLS population is strongly differentiated, perhaps indicative of cryptic biodiversity, we consider the presence of a single widespread species the most likely biological scenario for many of the investigated populations based on our mtDNA dataset. However, additional sampling of P. oviforme populations at nuclear loci is needed to corroborate this finding.

Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, ↗
USGS2001

Restoration of biogeochemical function in mangrove forests

Forest structure of mangrove restoration sites (6 and 14 years old) at two locations (Henderson Creek [HC] and Windstar [WS]) in southwest Florida differed from that of mixed-basin forests (>50 years old) with which they were once contiguous. However, the younger site (HC) was typical of natural, developing forests, whereas the older site (WS) was less well developed with low structural complexity. More stressful physicochemical conditions resulting from incomplete tidal flushing (elevated salinity) and variable topography (waterlogging) apparently affected plant survival and growth at the WS restoration site. Lower leaf fall and root production rates at the WS restoration site, compared with that at HC were partly attributable to differences in hydroedaphic conditions and structural development. However, leaf and root inputs at each restoration site were not significantly different from that in reference forests within the same physiographic setting. Macrofaunal consumption of tethered leaves also did not differ with site history, but was dramatically higher at HC compared with WS, reflecting local variation in leaf litter processing rates, primarily by snails (Melampus coffeus). Degradation of leaves and roots in mesh bags was slow overall at restoration sites, however, particularly at WS where aerobic decomposition may have been more limited. These findings indicate that local or regional factors such as salinity regime act together with site history to control primary production and turnover rates of organic matter in restoration sites. Species differences in senescent leaf nitrogen content and degradation rates further suggest that restoration sites dominated by Laguncularia racemosa and Rhizophora mangle should exhibit slower recycling of nutrients compared with natural basin forests where Avicennia germinans is more abundant. Structural development and biogeochemical functioning of restored mangrove forests thus depend on a number of factors, but site-specific as well as regional or local differences in hydrology and concomitant factors such as salinity and soil waterlogging will have a strong influence over the outcome of restoration projects.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2021

Threading the needle: How humans influence predator–prey spatiotemporal interactions in a multiple‐predator system

Perceived predation risk and the resulting antipredator behaviour varies across space, time and predator identity. Communities with multiple predators that interact and differ in their use of space, time of activity and hunting mode create a complex landscape for prey to avoid predation. Anthropogenic presence and disturbance have the potential to shift interactions among predators and prey and the where and when encounters occur. We examined how white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus fawn spatiotemporal antipredator behaviour differed along an anthropogenic disturbance gradient that had black bears Ursus americanus , coyotes Canis latrans , bobcats Lynx rufus and humans present. We quantified (a) spatial co-occurrence in species distributions, (b) temporal overlap across the diel cycle and (c) spatiotemporal associations between humans, bears, coyotes, bobcats, adult male deer and fawns. We also examined how deer vigilance behaviour changed across the anthropogenic disturbance gradient and survey duration. Anthropogenic disturbance influenced spatiotemporal co-occurrence across multiple scales, often increasing spatiotemporal overlap among species. In general, species’ spatial co-occurrence was neutral or positive in anthropogenically disturbed environments. Bears and fawns, coyotes and adult male deer, and bobcats and fawns all had higher temporal overlap in the agriculture-development matrix sites. In addition, factors that influenced deer vigilance (e.g. distance to forest edge and predator relative abundance) in the agriculture-development matrix sites did not in the forest matrix site. By taking into account the different antipredator behaviours that can be detected and the different scales these behaviours might occur, we were able to gain a more comprehensive picture of how humans reduce available niche space for wildlife, creating the neutral and positive spatiotemporal associations between species that studies have been seeing in more disturbed areas.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2013

Identification of metrics to monitor salt marsh integrity on National Wildlife Refuges in relation to conservation and management objectives

Executive Summary Most salt marshes in the US have been degraded by human activities, and threats from physical alterations, surrounding land-use, species invasions, and global climate change persist. Salt marshes are unique and highly productive ecosystems with high intrinsic value to wildlife, and many National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) have been established in coastal areas to protect large tracts of salt marsh and wetland-dependent species. Various management practices are employed routinely on coastal NWRs to restore and enhance marsh integrity and ensure ecosystem sustainability. Prioritizing NWR salt marshes for application of management actions and choosing among multiple management options requires scientifically-based methods for assessing marsh condition. Monitoring is integral to structured decision-making (SDM), a formal process for decomposing a decision into its essential elements. Within a natural resource context, SDM involves identifying management objectives, alternative management actions, and expected management outcomes. The core of SDM is a set of criteria for measuring system performance and evaluating management responses. Therefore, use of SDM to frame natural resource decisions leads to logical selection of monitoring attributes that are linked explicitly to management needs. We used SDM to guide selection of variables for monitoring the ecological integrity of salt marshes within the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS). Our objectives were to identify indicators of salt marsh integrity that are effective across large geographic regions, responsive to a wide range of threats, and feasible to implement within funding and staffing constraints of the NWRS. In April, 2008, we engaged interdisciplinary experts in a week-long rapid prototyping SDM workshop to define the essential elements of salt marsh management decisions on refuges throughout the northeastern, southwestern, and northwestern US, corresponding to respective Regions 5, 2, and 1 of the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). Through this process we identified measurable attributes for monitoring salt marsh ecosystems that are integrated into conservation practice and target management objectives. The following salt marsh attributes were identified through the SDM process either for describing state condition to determine management needs or for evaluating the achievement of management objectives: historical condition and geomorphic setting; ditch density; surrounding land use; ratio of open water area to vegetation area; rate of pesticide application; environmental contaminant concentration; change in marsh surface elevation relative to sea level rise; tidal range and groundwater level; surface topography; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, invertebrates, nekton, and breeding and wintering birds. The identified attributes were too broadly defined to serve as operational monitoring variables. Therefore, we tested specific metrics for quantifying most of these attributes in summers of 2008 and 2009. The first four attributes in the above list can be characterized by office-based analysis of existing GIS data layers. The remaining attributes require field-based methods for assessment. We were forced to exclude a small number of attributes from field tests due to inconsistent data (pesticide application rate, environmental contaminant concentrations) or requirements that exceeded the scope of this project (change in marsh surface elevation; surface topography; benthic invertebrates; wintering birds). We evaluated potential metrics for evaluating all remaining field attributes. In partnership with NWRS biologists, we tested rapid versus intensive metrics for monitoring field attributes (tidal range and groundwater level; marsh surface elevation; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, nekton, and breeding birds) at coastal refuges throughout FWS Region 5. Seven refuges participated in metric testing in 2008: Rachel Carson (ME), Parker River (MA), Wertheim (NY), E. B. Forsythe (NJ), Bombay Hook (DE), Prime Hook (DE), and Eastern Shore of Virginia Complex (VA). These seven and two additional refuges participated in metric testing in 2009: Rhode Island Complex (RI) and Stewart B. McKinney (CT). We based all field metrics on existing protocols for salt marsh assessment. Sampling locations were determined randomly within delineated marsh study units (MSUs) at each refuge. Detailed field methods are provided in appendices to this report. Measurements for individual metrics were averaged across samples within MSUs during each year of sampling. Each year, correlation or regression analysis was conducted on average measurements across MSUs within each attribute set to identify redundant metrics. Statistical redundancy between a pair of metrics within an attribute set (i.e., correlation or regression slopes with p-values < 0.05) was considered justification for eliminating one of the pair from the regional set of monitoring metrics. Decisions regarding metric elimination versus retention were based on feasibility of monitoring, considering such factors as sampling time, resources required, and potential for regional standardization in implementation. The result of these tests is a reduced suite of monitoring metrics that targets NWRS management decisions and is practicable for implementing on a regional scale. Based on these tests, we recommend the following list of metrics for monitoring integrity of NWRS salt marshes (marsh attribute category is in parentheses): (historical condition and geomorphic setting) position of marsh in the landscape, marsh shape, degree of fill and/or fragmentation, degree of tidal flushing, amount of aquatic edge; (ditch density) ranking of ditch density from none to severe; (surrounding land use) relative proportion of agricultural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 1-km buffer around the marsh; (ratio of open water area to vegetation area) ratio of open water to emergent herbaceous wetlands within the marsh; (marsh surface elevation) elevation referenced to NAVD88 in a representative area of the marsh; (tidal range and groundwater level) percent of time the marsh surface is flooded during deployment of a continuous water-level monitor at a representative marsh location, mean depth of surface flooding as measured by a continuous water-level monitor at a representative location; (salinity) salinity measured in surface water; (vegetation community) vegetation species richness using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots, percent cover of various marsh community types within 100-m diameter survey plots; (invasive species abundance) percent cover of invasive plant species measured using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots; (nekton community) nekton density, nekton species richness, length of Fundulus heteroclitus ; (breeding bird community) abundance of Willets counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys, summed abundance of tidal marsh obligate species (Clapper Rail, Willet, Saltmarsh Sparrow, Seaside Sparrow) counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys. Metrics describing the historical condition, geomorphic setting, and broad landscape features can be assessed using existing GIS databases. Our results support use of rapid methods to assess the majority of field metrics; only those used to describe the nekton community must be measured using intensive methods (throw traps or ditch nets, dependant on habitat configuration). Implementation of these metrics for quantitative assessment of NWRS salt marsh integrity in FWS Region 5 requires developing sampling designs for each refuge. Additionally, it is important to determine how the monitoring information will be used within a management context. SDM should be used to complete the analysis of salt marsh management decisions. The next steps would involve 1) prioritizing and weighting the management objectives; 2) predicting responses to individual management actions in terms of objectives and metrics; 3) using multiattribute utility theory to convert all measurable attributes to a common utility scale; 4) determining the total management benefit of each action by summing utilities across objectives; and 5) maximizing the total management benefits within cost constraints for each refuge. This process would allow the optimum management decisions for NWRS salt marshes to be selected and implemented based directly on monitoring data and current understanding of marsh responses to management actions. Monitoring the outcome of management actions would then allow new monitoring data to be incorporated into subsequent decisions.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New J↗
USGS2022

Spatially integrating microbiology and geochemistry to reveal complex environmental health issues: Anthrax in the contiguous United States

Maxent models were run using the B. anthracis presence data and/or the animal outbreak presence data. Models run using the animal outbreak data alone utilized two scales: the Outbreak State scale which included only states reporting animal anthrax outbreaks from 2001 to 2013 and the National scale which included all states in the contiguous United States. Three iterations of the environmental data were used and included the Sample Location dataset which utilized the environmental variable data with assigned latitude and longitude locations from the USGS NASGLP project; the Normalized dataset which scaled the environmental variables so that the values fell between 0 and 1; and the Interpolated dataset which provided an interpolation of the environmental variables averaged for each county and assigned to a point for that county at the centroid (rather than using the NASGLP latitude and longitude location). Two metrics were used to measure model performance including the widely used area under the curve (AUC) and an alternative method, the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The AUC gives the probability that a randomly chosen presence location has been correctly ranked higher than the absence/background site. AUC values at 0.5 or lower mean the ranking is no better than random, while the AUC values nearer to 1 mean the model is a better predictor. The TSS provides a comparison of how well the background predictions made by the model match the model results at the test dataset (presence) locations. TSS values near +1 means the model approaches perfect agreement, while values near −1 indicate the model is no better than random. Maxent models to determine the influence of environmental factors on the B. anthracis distribution using the PCR data yielded a low TSS, which suggested the model might be underfitting the data. This was not surprising due to the difficulty in recovering B. anthracis in soil samples as well as the samples themselves being discrete in nature and only capturing a snapshot in time. Therefore, the distribution of B. anthracis and its niche in the contiguous United States could not be determined in this study. However, efforts to investigate environmental factors that would have a higher potential of supporting an anthrax outbreak in wildlife and livestock yielded better results. Results showed that most of the Maxent models in this study performed best when using the Outbreak State scale. When the models were scaled up to the National scale, model performance declined, except for the Normalized variable dataset. At the Outbreak State scale, a large proportion of the area was predicted to be of higher probability for wildlife/livestock anthrax outbreaks, and the statistical measures assumed the model was underfitting the data. The model with the highest AUC and TSS scores for this study was the Outbreak State scale using Sample Location dataset (AUC = 0.918 and TSS = 0.82). Some of the variables found to be closely related to the occurrence of B. anthracis in this study included pH, drainage potential, and concentration of elements including Na, Ca, Sr, and Mg, which have also been found to be related to animal outbreaks or to the occurrence of B. anthracis in previous studies. The models in the current study indicated possible regions that have not had recent wildlife/livestock anthrax outbreaks but contained environmental conditions that could potentially support an outbreak if one were to occur (Michigan and Maine). This work provides an extension to the use of ecological niche modeling to outbreak potential in livestock/wildlife in the United States because it utilizes additional soil geochemistry data and has shown that further validation techniques, such as the TSS, should be considered in addition to AUC. Results from this study could be used by animal and public health officials to identify areas with a higher potential for anthrax outbreak in wildlife and livestock due to naturally occurring soil and environmental conditions.

Book chapter↗
USGS2015

A food web modeling analysis of a Midwestern, USA eutrophic lake dominated by non-native Common Carp and Zebra Mussels

Food web modeling is recognized as fundamental to understanding the complexities of aquatic systems. Ecopath is the most common mass-balance model used to represent food webs and quantify trophic interactions among groups. We constructed annual Ecopath models for four consecutive years during the first half-decade of a zebra mussel invasion in shallow, eutrophic Clear Lake, Iowa, USA, to evaluate changes in relative biomass and total system consumption among food web groups, evaluate food web impacts of non-native common carp and zebra mussels on food web groups, and to interpret food web impacts in light of on-going lake restoration. Total living biomass increased each year of the study; the majority of the increase due to a doubling in planktonic blue green algae, but several other taxa also increased including a more than two-order of magnitude increase in zebra mussels. Common carp accounted for the largest percentage of total fish biomass throughout the study even with on-going harvest. Chironomids, common carp, and zebra mussels were the top-three ranking consumer groups. Non-native common carp and zebra mussels accounted for an average of 42% of the total system consumption. Despite the relatively high biomass densities of common carp and zebra mussel, food web impacts was minimal due to excessive benthic and primary production in this eutrophic system. Consumption occurring via benthic pathways dominated system consumption in Clear Lake throughout our study, supporting the argument that benthic food webs are significant in shallow, eutrophic lake ecosystems and must be considered if ecosystem-level understanding is to be obtained.

Iowa↗
USGS2017

Restricted gene flow between resident Oncorhynchus mykiss and an admixed population of anadromous steelhead

The species Oncorhynchus mykiss is characterized by a complex life history that presents a significant challenge for population monitoring and conservation management. Many factors contribute to genetic variation in O. mykiss populations, including sympatry among migratory phenotypes, habitat heterogeneity, hatchery introgression, and immigration (stray) rates. The relative influences of these and other factors are contingent on characteristics of the local environment. The Rock Creek subbasin in the middle Columbia River has no history of hatchery supplementation and no dams or artificial barriers. Limited intervention and minimal management have led to a dearth of information regarding the genetic distinctiveness of the extant O. mykiss population in Rock Creek and its tributaries. We used 192 SNP markers and collections sampled over a 5‐year period to evaluate the temporal and spatial genetic structures of O. mykiss between upper and lower watersheds of the Rock Creek subbasin. We investigated potential limits to gene flow within the lower watershed where the stream is fragmented by seasonally dry stretches of streambed, and between upper and lower watershed regions. We found minor genetic differentiation within the lower watershed occupied by anadromous steelhead ( F ST = 0.004), and evidence that immigrant influences were prevalent and ubiquitous. Populations in the upper watershed above partial natural barriers were highly distinct ( F ST = 0.093) and minimally impacted by apparent introgression. Genetic structure between watersheds paralleled differences in local demographics (e.g., variation in size), migratory restrictions, and habitat discontinuity. The evidence of restricted gene flow between putative remnant resident populations in the upper watershed and the admixed anadromous population in the lower watershed has implications for local steelhead productivity and regional conservation.

Washington↗
USGS2019

Future losses of playa wetlands decrease network structure and connectivity of the Rainwater Basin, Nebraska

Context The Rainwater Basin in south-central Nebraska once supported a complex network of ~ 12,000 spatially-isolated playa wetlands, but ~ 90% have been lost since European settlement. Future losses are likely and expected reductions in connectivity could further isolate populations, increasing local extinction rates of many wetland species. However, to what extent future losses will affect wildlife likely depends on the role of lost wetlands in maintaining connectivity. Objectives We compared the current Rainwater Basin network to future wetland loss scenarios to assess minimum, mean, and maximum effects of losses on network connectivity for a range of wildlife taxa. Methods We used network models to rank wetlands by their functionality and relative importance in maintaining connectivity. We then removed 10–50% of high-ranked, low-ranked, or random subsets of wetlands and assessed connectivity of the remaining network. Results A 10% loss of highly-ranked wetlands substantially decreased connectivity for species with dispersal capabilities < 5.5 km, while a 40–50% loss reduced connectivity for all tested dispersal distances (0.5–12.0 km). When large proportions of highly-ranked wetlands were lost, the eastern and western halves of the Rainwater Basin network were no longer connected for any dispersal distance. Loss of low-ranked wetlands had minimal effects on network connectivity, until at least the lowest-ranked 50% were removed. Conclusions Many highly-ranked playa wetlands in the Rainwater Basin are currently unprotected and might disappear from the landscape. Protecting wetlands that are key in maintaining connectivity especially benefits species with limited dispersal capabilities (< 5.5 km) for which consequences of future habitat losses might be worst.

Nebraska↗
USGS2019

Nest structure affects auditory and visual detectability, but not predation risk, in a tropical songbird community

Offspring mortality varies dramatically among species with critical demographic and evolutionary ramifications, yet the causes of this variation remain unclear. Nests are widely used for breeding across taxa and thought to influence offspring mortality risk. Traditionally, more complex, enclosed nest structures are thought to reduce offspring predation by reducing the visibility of nest contents and muffling offspring sounds compared to open nests. Direct tests of the functional bases for nest structure influence on predation risk are lacking. We used experiments and 10 years of observational data to examine how nest structure influences nest predation risk in a diverse community of tropical songbirds. First, we examined how nest size was related to nest structure and nest predation rates across species. Second, we assessed how nest structure influences the detectability of nestling begging calls both in field and in laboratory settings. Finally, we examined how the acoustic properties of different nest structures influence nest predation risk. Specifically, we experimentally broadcast begging calls from open and enclosed nests to determine how auditory cues and nest structure interact to affect predation on plasticine and quail eggs. We also tested whether nest structure was associated with differences in nest predation rates between the incubation (no begging cues) and nestling (begging cues) stages. We found that enclosed nests are larger than open nests after accounting for adult size, and larger nests had increased predation rates. Moreover, enclosed nests did not consistently alter nestling begging calls in ways that reduce the likelihood of predation compared to open nests. Indeed, begging cues increased predation rates for enclosed but not open‐cup nests in our playback experiment, and nest predation rates showed greater increases after hatching in enclosed than open‐cup nests. Ultimately, enclosed nests do not necessarily provide greater predation benefits than open nests in contrast to long‐standing theory.

Functional Ecology↗
USGS2022

Hybrid enrichment of adaptive variation revealed by genotype-environment associations in montane sedges

The role of hybridization in diversification is complex and may result in many possible outcomes. Not only can hybridization produce new lineages, but those lineages may contain unique combinations of adaptive genetic variation derived from parental taxa that allow hybrid-origin lineages to occupy unique environmental space relative to one (or both) parents. We document such a case of hybridization between two sedge species, Carex nova and Carex nelsonii (Cyperaceae), that occupy partially overlapping environmental space in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA. In the region hypothesized to be the origin of the hybrid lineage, one parental taxon ( C. nelsonii ) is at the edge of its environmental tolerance. Hybrid-origin individuals display mixed ancestry between the parental taxa – of nearly 7,000 unlinked loci sampled, almost 30% showed evidence of excess ancestry from one parental lineage – approximately half displayed a genomic background skewed towards one parent, and half skewed towards the other. To test whether excess ancestry loci may have conferred an adaptive advantage to the hybrid-origin lineage, we conducted genotype-environment association analyses on different combinations of loci – with and without excess ancestry – and with multiple contrasts between the hybrids and parental taxa. Loci with skewed ancestry showed significant environmental associations distinguishing the hybrid lineage from one parent ( C. nelsonii ), whereas loci with relatively equal representation of parental ancestries showed no such environmental associations. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of candidate adaptive loci with respect to environmental gradients also had excess ancestry from a parental lineage, implying these loci have facilitated the persistence of the hybrid lineage in an environment unsuitable to at least one parent .

Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebrask↗
USGS2011

Predicting breeding habitat for amphibians: a spatiotemporal analysis across Yellowstone National Park

The ability to predict amphibian breeding across landscapes is important for informing land management decisions and helping biologists better understand and remediate factors contributing to declines in amphibian populations. We built geospatial models of likely breeding habitats for each of four amphibian species that breed in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). We used field data collected in 2000-2002 from 497 sites among 16 basins and predictor variables from geospatial models produced from remotely sensed data (e.g., digital elevation model, complex topographic index, landform data, wetland probabililty, and vegetative cover). Except for 31 sites in one basin that were surveyed in both 2000 and 2002, all sites were surveyed once. We used polytomous regression to build statistical models for each species of amphibian from 1) field survey site data only, 2) field data combined with data from geospatial models, and 3) data from geospatial models only. Based on measures of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores, models of the second type best explained likely breeding habitat because they contained the most information (ROC values ranged from 0.70 - 0.88). However, models of the third type could be applied to the entire YNP landscape and produced maps that could be verified with reserve field data. Accuracy rates for models built for single years were highly variable, ranging from 0.30 to 0.78. Accuracy rates for models built with data combined from multiple years were higher and less variable, ranging from 0.60 to 0.80. Combining results from the geospatial multiyear models yielded maps of "core" breeding areas (areas with high probability values for all three years) surrounded by areas that scored high for only one or two years, providing an estimate of variability among years. Such information can highlight landscape options for amphibian conservation. For example, our models identify alternative for areas that could be protected for each species, including 6828-10 764 ha for tiger salamanders; 971-3017 ha for western toads; 4732-16 696 ha for boreal chorus frogs; 4940-19 690 hectares for Columbia spotted frogs.

Yellowstone National Park↗