Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Climate Change Responses”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,369 records · Page 76Linked to original sources
USGS2008

Seasonal temperature responses to land-use change in the western United States

In the western United States, more than 79 000??km2 has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. These changes have the potential to alter surface temperature by modifying the energy budget at the land-atmosphere interface. This study reports the seasonally varying temperature responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) - RSM, RegCM3, MM5-CLM3, and DRCM - to conversion of potential natural vegetation to modern land-cover and land-use over a 1-year period. Three of the RCMs supplemented soil moisture, producing large decreases in the August mean (- 1.4 to - 3.1????C) and maximum (- 2.9 to - 6.1????C) 2-m air temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9% to 36% absolute change). Modeled changes in the August minimum 2-m air temperature were not as pronounced or consistent across the models. Converting natural vegetation to urban land-cover produced less pronounced temperature effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effect dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type and urban parameterizations. Overall, the RCM results indicate that the temperature impacts of land-use change are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface soil moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2003

Simulation of net infiltration and potential recharge using a distributed-parameter watershed model of the Death Valley region, Nevada and California

This report presents the development and application of the distributed-parameter watershed model, INFILv3, for estimating the temporal and spatial distribution of net infiltration and potential recharge in the Death Valley region, Nevada and California. The estimates of net infiltration quantify the downward drainage of water across the lower boundary of the root zone and are used to indicate potential recharge under variable climate conditions and drainage basin characteristics. Spatial variability in recharge in the Death Valley region likely is high owing to large differences in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, bedrock permeability, soil thickness, vegetation characteristics, and contributions to recharge along active stream channels. The quantity and spatial distribution of recharge representing the effects of variable climatic conditions and drainage basin characteristics on recharge are needed to reduce uncertainty in modeling ground-water flow. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Department of Energy, developed a regional saturated-zone ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system to help evaluate the current hydrogeologic system and the potential effects of natural or human-induced changes. Although previous estimates of recharge have been made for most areas of the Death Valley region, including the area defined by the boundary of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, the uncertainty of these estimates is high, and the spatial and temporal variability of the recharge in these basins has not been quantified. To estimate the magnitude and distribution of potential recharge in response to variable climate and spatially varying drainage basin characteristics, the INFILv3 model uses a daily water-balance model of the root zone with a primarily deterministic representation of the processes controlling net infiltration and potential recharge. The daily water balance includes precipitation (as either rain or snow), snow accumulation, sublimation, snowmelt, infiltration into the root zone, evapotranspiration, drainage, water content change throughout the root-zone profile (represented as a 6-layered system), runoff (defined as excess rainfall and snowmelt) and surface water run-on (defined as runoff that is routed downstream), and net infiltration (simulated as drainage from the bottom root-zone layer). Potential evapotranspiration is simulated using an hourly solar radiation model to simulate daily net radiation, and daily evapotranspiration is simulated as an empirical function of root zone water content and potential evapotranspiration. The model uses daily climate records of precipitation and air temperature from a regionally distributed network of 132 climate stations and a spatially distributed representation of drainage basin characteristics defined by topography, geology, soils, and vegetation to simulate daily net infiltration at all locations, including stream channels with intermittent streamflow in response to runoff from rain and snowmelt. The temporal distribution of daily, monthly, and annual net infiltration can be used to evaluate the potential effect of future climatic conditions on potential recharge. The INFILv3 model inputs representing drainage basin characteristics were developed using a geographic information system (GIS) to define a set of spatially distributed input parameters uniquely assigned to each grid cell of the INFILv3 model grid. The model grid, which was defined by a digital elevation model (DEM) of the Death Valley region, consists of 1,252,418 model grid cells with a uniform grid cell dimension of 278.5 meters in the north-south and east-west directions. The elevation values from the DEM were used with monthly regression models developed from the daily climate data to estimate the spatial distribution of daily precipitation and air temperature. The elevation values were also used to simulate atmosp

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Evaluating seawater intrusion forecast uncertainty under climate change in the Pajaro Valley, California

Climate change and climate variability impacts such as rising sea levels have the potential to exacerbate seawater intrusion and the strain on coastal freshwater resources in already stressed groundwater basins such as those in the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin, California. Regional hydrologic models are often coupled with climate projections to forecast future hydrologic conditions and inform adaptive resources management strategies. However, there is high uncertainty in the future projections of water resources due to uncertainties from downscaling global general circulation models (GCMs) to local scale climate change projections, future land use changes, and the inherent uncertainty of developed hydrologic models. Future climate projections and the magnitude of their influence on modeled hydrologic drivers are highly variable. Therefore, to develop a forecast model, an ensemble of different projections can be used to capture a wider range of basin responses and the associated uncertainties in the modeled forecasts. Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of forecasts is important for developing climate adaptation strategies such as developing protective thresholds, particularly at the basin scale where the impacts are felt, and adaptation is implemented. To demonstrate this, an uncertainty analysis of groundwater level and seawater intrusion forecasts for the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin was performed using an ensemble of three future climate projections with the Pajaro Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (PVIHM) and the first-order second moment (FOSM) method. FOSM uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasts across a multi-GCM climate ensemble provides an upper and lower bound of potential impacts of climate change on sustainability targets related to mitigating seawater intrusion. The groundwater level forecasts’ narrow range of variability can help policymakers in adaptation planning by constraining possible outcomes to a focused range for risk-management decisions. However, less than one-third of groundwater level forecasts met the current protection thresholds to prevent chronic lowering of groundwater. Therefore, sustainability targets may need to be reassessed. Relative to groundwater level changes, the seawater intrusion forecasts had larger uncertainty due to the GCM climate projections and the simulated hydrologic response that were compounded by the propagation of scaling and bias from the GCMs and model simplifications in simulating the coastal boundary.

California↗
USGS2022

Large fires or small fires, will they differ in affecting shifts in species composition and distributions under climate change?

Climate change is expected to increase fire activity, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in species composition and distribution in the boreal-temperate ecotone. Wildfire can kill resident trees, and thus provide establishment opportunities for migrating tree species. However, the role of fire size and its interactions with tree species with varied life-history attributes in driving climate-induced shifts is not understood. Future fire regimes could be characterized by many small fires or a few large fires. Large and small fires create and regulate distinct burn patterns, which may influence tree-species responses and post-fire successional trajectories. Here we investigated the effects of future fire-regime variability on the boreal-temperate ecotone of northeastern China under climate change using a coupled forest dynamic model (LANDIS PRO) and ecosystem process model (LINKAGES). We simulated fire regimes using the LANDIS PRO fire module. We designed two fire scenarios (frequent, small fires and infrequent, large fires) to represent different fire regimes in terms of fire size. Results showed fire-catalyzed, climate-induced transitions from boreal to pioneer and temperate forest communities. Frequent, small fires resulted in 13% and 23% higher increases in pioneer and temperate species respectively, relative to infrequent, large fires. Therefore, species composition shifts were faster following frequent, small fires than infrequent, large fires. The results can help policymakers and forest managers determine tradeoffs among strategies to mitigate or adapt to climate change under altered fire regimes.

Great Xing'an Mountains↗
USGS2004

Anthropogenic and natural variation in ridge and slough pollen assemblages

We present pollen evidence documenting the response of sawgrass ridge and slough systems of the Florida Everglades to hydrologic changes during the last 3,500 years. Sediment cores and surface samples were collected in three transects across sawgrass ridges and sloughs in Water Conservation Area 3A to determine the age of the features, long-term variability in plant community composition, stability of sawgrass ridge and slough size, and their response to 20th century changes in hydrology. Statistically significant differences in abundance of Cladium pollen in surface samples collected throughout the system allow differentiation of these communities in the sedimentary pollen record. Analysis of pollen in cores from the three transects indicates that the general distribution of ridges and sloughs has remained distinct through time. There is evidence the vegetation has responded to past global-scale climate events, such as the Medieval Warm Period, as well as the 20th century anthropogenic alterations to the natural hydrology. The ridge community is more responsive and susceptible to perturbations in hydrology than the slough community. In contrast, the slough plant community is more stable and less likely to demonstrate long-term changes after perturbations to hydrology. Regardless, these data indicate that the ridge and slough landscape is resilient to changes in hydrology and posses the potential to return to a natural state with the return of natural hydrologic conditions.

Florida↗
USGS2013

Moving forward with imperfect information

This chapter summarized the scope of what is known and not known about climate in the Southwestern United States. There is now more evidence and more agreement among climate scientists about the physical climate and related impacts in the Southwest compared with that represented in the 2009 National Climate Assessment (Karl, Melillo, and Peterson 2009). However, there remain uncertainties about the climate system, the complexities within climate models, the related impacts to the biophysical environment, and the use of climate information on decision making. Uncertainty is introduced in each step of the climate planning-an-response process--in the scenarios used to drive the climate models, the information used to construct the models, and the interpretation and use of the model' data for planning and decision making (Figure 19.1). There are server key challenge, drawn from recommendations of the authors of this report, that contribute to these uncertainties in the Southwest: - There is a dearth of climate observations at high elevations and on the lands of Native nations. - There is limited understanding of the influence of climate change on natural variability (e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillations, Pacific Decadal Oscillation), extreme events (droughts, floods), and the marine layer align coastal California. - Climate models, downscaling, and resulting projection of the physical climate are imperfect. Representing the influence of the diverse topography of the Southwest on regional climate is a particular challenge. - The impacts of climate change on key components of the natural ecosystems (including species and terrestrial ecosystems) are ill-defined. - The adaptive capacity of decision-making entities and legal systems to handle climate impacts is unclear. This creates a challenge for identifying vulnerabilities to climate in the Southwest. - Regulation, legislation, and political and social responses too climate all play important roles in our ability to adapt to climate impacts and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. - Climate change is one of multiple stresses affecting the physical, biological, social, and economic systems of the Southwest, with population growth (and its related resource consumption, pollution, and land-sue changes) being particularly important.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

Ammonia and aquatic ecosystems – A review of global sources, biogeochemical cycling, and effects on fish

The purpose of this review is to better understand the full life cycle and influence of ammonia from an aquatic biology perspective. While ammonia has toxic properties in water and air, it also plays a central role in the biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle and regulates mechanisms of normal and abnormal fish physiology. Additionally, as the second most synthesized chemical on Earth, ammonia contributes economic value to many sectors, particularly fertilizers, energy storage, explosives, refrigerants, and plastics. But, with so many uses, industrial N 2 -fixation effectively doubles natural reactive N concentrations in the environment. The consequence is global, with excess fixed nitrogen driving degradation of soils, water, and air; intensifying eutrophication, biodiversity loss, and climate change; and creating health risks for humans, wildlife, and fisheries. Thus, the need for ammonia research in aquatic systems is growing. In response, we prepared this review to better understand the complexities and connectedness of environmental ammonia. Even the term “ammonia” has multiple meanings. So, we have clarified the nomenclature, identified units of measurement, and summarized methods to measure ammonia in water. We then discuss ammonia in the context of the N-cycle, review its role in fish physiology and mechanisms of toxicity, and integrate the effects of human N-fixation, which continuously expands ammonia's sources and uses. Ammonia is being developed as a carbon-free energy carrier with potential to increase reactive nitrogen in the environment. With this in mind, we review the global impacts of excess reactive nitrogen and consider the current monitoring and regulatory frameworks for ammonia. The presented synthesis illustrates the complex and interactive dynamics of ammonia as a plant nutrient, energy molecule, feedstock, waste product, contaminant, N-cycle participant, regulator of animal physiology, toxicant, and agent of environmental change. Few molecules are as influential as ammonia in the management and resilience of Earth's resources.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2017

Post-Clovis survival of American Mastodon in the southern Great Lakes Region of North America

The end of the Pleistocene in North America was marked by a wave of extinctions of large mammals, with the last known appearances of many species falling between ca. 11,000–10,000 14 C yr BP. Temporally, this period overlaps with the Clovis Paleoindian cultural complex (11,190–10,530 14 C yr BP) and with sudden climatic changes that define the beginning of the Younger Dryas chronozone (ca. 11,000–10,000 14 C yr BP), both of which have been considered as potential proximal causes of this extinction event. Radiocarbon dating of enamel and filtered bone collagen from an extinct American Mastodon ( Mammut americanum ) from northern Indiana, USA, by accelerator mass spectrometer yielded direct dates of 10,055 ± 40 14 C yr BP and 10,032 ± 40 14 C yr BP, indicating that the animal survived beyond the Clovis time period and into the late Younger Dryas. Although the late survival of this species in mid-continental North America does not remove either humans or climatic change as contributing causes for the late Pleistocene extinctions, neither Clovis hunters nor the climatic perturbations initiating the Younger Dryas chronozone were immediately responsible for driving mastodons to extinction.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2010

Seasonal ice and hydrologic controls on dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen concentrations in a boreal-rich fen

[1] Boreal wetland carbon cycling is vulnerable to climate change in part because hydrology and the extent of frozen ground have strong influences on plant and microbial functions. We examined the response of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) across an experimental manipulation of water table position (both raised and lowered water table treatments) in a boreal-rich fen in interior Alaska. DOC and TDN responses to water table manipulation exhibited an interaction with seasonal ice dynamics. We observed consistently higher DOC and TDN concentrations in the lowered water table treatment (71.7 ± 6.5 and 3.0 ± 0.3 mg−L) than in both the control (55.6 ± 5.1 and 2.3 ± 0.2 mg−L) and raised (49.1 ± 4.3 and 1.9 ± 0.1 mg L−1, respectively) water table treatments. Across all plots, pore water DOC concentrations at 20 cm increased as the depth to water table increased (R2 = 0.43, p < 0.001). DOC concentrations also increased as the seasonal thaw depth increased, with solutes increasing most rapidly in the drained plot (R2 = 0.62, p < 0.001). About half of the TDN pool was composed of dissolved organic N (DON). Inorganic N and DON were both highly correlated with changes in DOC, and their respective constraints to mineralization are discussed. These results demonstrate that a declining water table position and dryer conditions affect thaw depth and peat temperatures, and interactions among these ecosystem properties will likely increase DOC and TDN loading and potential for export in these systems.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Potential effects of sea level rise on nearshore habitat availability for surf smelt (Hypomesus pretiosus) and eelgrass (Zostera marina), Puget Sound, Washington

In this study we examine the potential effects of three predicted sea level rise (SLR) scenarios on the nearshore eelgrass ( Zostera marina L.) and surf smelt ( Hypomesus pretiosus ) spawning habitats along a beach on Bainbridge Island, Washington. Baseline bathymetric, geomorphological, and biological surveys were conducted to determine the existing conditions at the study site. The results of these surveys were coupled with a predictive model that estimates SLR-induced changes to coastal ecosystems based upon local topography and land-cover data. This model simulates the changes in nearshore habitat through time. The model inputs for SLR are probable values reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and by user-defined values. The predicted effects of SLR are presented as (1) habitat type change and (2) the graphic response of developed dry land depicting the influence of shoreline armoring. This report describes the geophysical and biological characteristics at the Bainbridge Island study site, the modeling methods used to produce depictions of habitat changes, and a possible decrease in surf smelt spawning and an increase in eelgrass habitat availability in response to increases in sea level.

Washington↗
USGS2021

Extreme events trigger terrestrial and marine ecosystem collapses: A tale of two regions

We outline the multiple, cross-scale, and complex consequences of terrestrial and marine ecosystem heatwaves in two regions on opposite sides of the planet: the southwestern USA and southwestern Australia, both encompassing Global Biodiversity Hotspots, and where ecosystem collapses or features of it have occurred in the past two decades. We highlight ecosystem shifts that have clearly demonstrated a substantial change from a baseline state over time, although not necessarily across their entire distribution, with evidence of collapse at local scales. Responses to temperature extremes, such as heatwaves, encompass processes at all scales, including population level (e.g. altered demography such as survival, recruitment, and fecundity, together resulting in structural changes), community level (e.g. species compositional shifts), and ecosystem level (e.g. carbon loss), as well as physical properties altered by vegetation loss (e.g. microclimate, fire behaviour on land). These changes impact all trophic levels with foundational species losses (such as seagrasses, kelp, and trees), flowing through to vertebrates (such as sea turtles, penguins, and cockatoos). Where extensive collapse has occurred, shifts in microclimate could affect important biosphere-to-atmosphere feedbacks including fluxes of energy, carbon, and water. Such extensive changes usually do not occur in isolation and frequently interact with other disturbance processes such as fire, storms, pathogen and pest outbreaks, and anthropogenic stressors. Interactions may alter the likelihood, extent, or severity of subsequent disturbances (linked disturbances) as well as condition the ecological response and recovery (compound disturbances). In addition, if ecosystem collapse is extensive enough (e.g. tree die-off), those changes also can impact climate and ecosystems elsewhere via ecoclimate teleconnections. Increasing rates of climatic extremes will drive a host of direct and indirect feedbacks certain to produce large-scale shifts in ecological functioning at unprecedented rates. Understanding how, why, and where these shifts will occur will be critical for effective ecosystem management and climate change mitigation.

Book chapter↗
USGS2018

Managing forest habitat for conservation-reliant species in a changing climate: The case of the endangered Kirtland’s Warbler

Conservation and recovery of species of concern necessitates evaluating forest habitat conditions under changing climate conditions, especially in the early stages of the delisting process. Managers must weigh implications of near-term habitat management activities within the context of changing environmental conditions and a species’ biological traits that may influence their vulnerability to changing conditions. Here we applied established population-habitat relationships based on decades of monitoring and research-management collaborations for the Kirtland’s Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ) to project potential impacts of changing environmental conditions to breeding habitat distribution, quantity, and quality in the near future. Kirtland’s warblers are habitat-specialists that nest exclusively within dense jack pine ( Pinus banksiana ) forests between ca. 5–20 years of age. Using Random Forests to predict changes in distribution and growth rate of jack pine under future scenarios, results indicate the projected distribution of jack pine will contract considerably (ca. 75%) throughout the Lake States region, U.S.A. in response to projected environmental conditions in 2099 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios regardless of climate model. Reduced suitability for jack pine regeneration across the Lake States may constrain management options, especially for creating high stem-density plantations nesting habitat. However, conditions remain suitable for jack pine regeneration within their historical and current core breeding range in northern Lower Michigan and several satellite breeding areas. Projected changes in jack pine growth rates varied within the core breeding area, but altered growth rates did not greatly alter the duration that habitat remained suitable for nesting by the Kirtland’s Warblers. These findings contribute to Kirtland’s Warbler conservation by informing habitat spatial planning of plantation management to provide a constant supply of nesting habitat based on the spatial variability of potential loss or gain of lands environmentally suitable for regenerating jack pine in the long-term.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2004

Interannual variability in aboveground tree growth in Stehekin River watershed, North Cascade Range, Washington

Many forests in the Pacific Northwest region of North America are both highly productive and sensitive to climate. The combination of productivity and sensitivity makes forests vulnerable to changes in future climate and most likely to feed back to the regional carbon cycle. We reconstructed basal area increment (BAI) for 20 yr using tree-ring increments and diameter to identify species-specific responses of 14 forested vegetation types in the Stehekin River watershed in the North Cascade Range, to interannual climatic variability. Mean basal area increment (MBAI) for the 20-yr period is low when the standard error is low, but as MBAI increases, the standard error (SE) is more variable. Growth at sites with both low SE and MBAI may be related to climatic variables, however, some forest types dominated by Douglas-fir and mountain hemlock are both productive and responsive to climatic variability. Many forests in the Pacific Northwest are dominated by Douglas-fir, a commercially important timber species, and as a result, may play a major role in the regional carbon balance. Douglas-fir and mountain hemlock forests in the eastern portion of the North Cascades should be carefully monitored and managed in the context of both changing climatic conditions and regional carbon budgets.

Northwest Science↗
USGS2014

Snowshoe hares display limited phenotypic plasticity to mismatch in seasonal camouflage

As duration of snow cover decreases owing to climate change, species undergoing seasonal colour moults can become colour mismatched with their background. The immediate adaptive solution to this mismatch is phenotypic plasticity, either in phenology of seasonal colour moults or in behaviours that reduce mismatch or its consequences. We observed nearly 200 snowshoe hares across a wide range of snow conditions and two study sites in Montana, USA, and found minimal plasticity in response to mismatch between coat colour and background. We found that moult phenology varied between study sites, likely due to differences in photoperiod and climate, but was largely fixed within study sites with only minimal plasticity to snow conditions during the spring white-to-brown moult. We also found no evidence that hares modify their behaviour in response to colour mismatch. Hiding and fleeing behaviours and resting spot preference of hares were more affected by variables related to season, site and concealment by vegetation, than by colour mismatch. We conclude that plasticity in moult phenology and behaviours in snowshoe hares is insufficient for adaptation to camouflage mismatch, suggesting that any future adaptation to climate change will require natural selection on moult phenology or behaviour.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗
USGS2013

Permafrost and organic layer interactions over a climate gradient in a discontinuous permafrost zone

Permafrost is tightly coupled to the organic soil layer, an interaction that mediates permafrost degradation in response to regional warming. We analyzed changes in permafrost occurrence and organic layer thickness (OLT) using more than 3000 soil pedons across a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient. Cause and effect relationships between permafrost probability (PF), OLT, and other topographic factors were investigated using structural equation modeling in a multi-group analysis. Groups were defined by slope, soil texture type, and shallow (<28 cm) versus deep organic (≥28 cm) layers. The probability of observing permafrost sharply increased by 0.32 for every 10-cm OLT increase in shallow OLT soils (OLTs) due to an insulation effect, but PF decreased in deep OLT soils (OLTd) by 0.06 for every 10-cm increase. Across the MAT gradient, PF in sandy soils varied little, but PF in loamy and silty soils decreased substantially from cooler to warmer temperatures. The change in OLT was more heterogeneous across soil texture types—in some there was no change while in others OLTs soils thinned and/or OLTd soils thickened at warmer locations. Furthermore, when soil organic carbon was estimated using a relationship with thickness, the average increase in carbon in OLTd soils was almost four times greater compared to the average decrease in carbon in OLTs soils across all soil types. If soils follow a trajectory of warming that mimics the spatial gradients found today, then heterogeneities of permafrost degradation and organic layer thinning and thickening should be considered in the regional carbon balance.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2023

Potential effects of climate change on Emydoidea blandingii (Blanding’s turtle)

Emydoidea blandingii (Holbrook, 1838; Blanding’s turtles) are a species of medium-sized, long-lived, semiaquatic, freshwater turtles with a wide distribution across the northern and eastern United States and southern Canada. They have an annual activity cycle consisting of late autumn and winter overwintering and spring emergence, spring movement and foraging, spring and summer nesting, and summer and autumn foraging and nonnesting movement. In response to changes in average and extreme temperatures, Blanding’s turtles are likely to experience increased physiological stress and reduced reproductive success. Variability in precipitation may affect the availability of freshwater habitats for overwintering, shelter, and feeding; however, projected changes in precipitation vary widely. This analysis presents anticipated climate conditions and effects on the species; the complex life history and expansive geographic range of this species require additional analysis at local scales.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Effect of climate fluctuations on long-term vegetation dynamics in Carolina bay wetlands

Carolina bays and similar depression wetlands of the U.S. Southeastern Coastal Plain have hydrologic regimes that are driven primarily by rainfall. Therefore, climate fluctuations such as drought cycles have the potential to shape long-term vegetation dynamics. Models suggest two potential long-term responses to hydrologic fluctuations, either cyclic change maintaining open emergent vegetation, or directional succession toward forest vegetation. In seven Carolina bay wetlands on the Savannah River Site, South Carolina, we assessed hydrologic variation and vegetation response over a 15-year period spanning two drought and reinundation cycles. Changes in pond stage (water depth) were monitored bi-weekly to monthly each year from 1989?2003. Vegetation composition was sampled in three years (1989, 1993, and 2003) and analyzed in relation to changes in hydrologic conditions. Multi-year droughts occurred prior to the 1989 and 2003 sampling years, whereas 1993 coincided with a wet period. Wetland plant species generally maintained dominance after both wet and dry conditions, but the abundances of different plant growth forms and species indicator categories shifted over the 15-year period. Decreased hydroperiods and water depths during droughts led to increased cover of grass, upland, and woody species, particularly at the shallower wetland margins. Conversely, reinundation and longer hydroperiods resulted in expansion of aquatic and emergent species and reduced the cover of flood-intolerant woody and upland species. These semi-permanent Upper Coastal Plain bays generally exhibited cyclic vegetation dynamics in response to climate fluctuation, with wet periods favoring dominance by herbaceous species. Large basin morphology and deep ponding, paired with surrounding upland forest dominated by flood-intolerant pines, were features contributing to persistence of herbaceous vegetation. Drought cycles may promote directional succession to forest in bays that are smaller, shallower, or colonized by flood-tolerant hardwoods.

Wetlands↗
USGS2025

An analytical approach to explore prospects and limits of nutrition-sensitive fisheries governance under climate change

Researchers and policymakers increasingly recognize the contribution of aquatic food systems, such as fisheries, to food security and nutrition. Yet governing fisheries for nutrition objectives is complicated by the multiple overlapping processes that shape availability and access to nutrients over time, including fishing sustainability, climate change, trade dynamics, and consumer preferences. Anticipating the effect of governance interventions to sustain or enhance nutritional benefits from fisheries entails accounting for these multiple interacting influences. We develop an analytical approach to link available data on aquatic foods production, nutrition, distribution, and potential climate impacts to evaluate the nutrition implications of fishery management and post-harvest allocation interventions. We demonstrate this approach using national and publicly available datasets for five case study countries: Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Sierra Leone, and Malawi. As examples, we evaluate the potential to enhance domestic supply of key nutrients to nutritionally-vulnerable populations by (a) dynamically adjusting fishing effort in response to climate impacts on fish stocks, and (b) retaining aquatic foods currently diverted via trade or foreign fishing. The results indicate substantial differences across countries in terms of anticipated climate change effects, with potential for substantially increased nutrition yield in Chile and Peru under adaptive management, vs more modest yield increases in Indonesia. The impacts of post-harvest allocation policies related to foreign fishing, exports, fishing sector, and subnational trade also vary, with exports weighing heavily on nutrient availability in Sierra Leone. This methodological approach represents a step toward operationalizing calls to manage fisheries as part of national food and nutrient supplies, in light of climate change risks.

Environmental Research: Food Systems↗