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USGS1971

Ground-water resources of Cache Valley, Utah and Idaho

This report is based on a study that was designed to provide information to enable the water managers and users in Cache Valley to develop, conserve, and administer their water resources. The report is primarily about the ground water in the valley, but it also includes a discussion of the relation of ground water to surface water and presents a general water-budget analysis for the valley. The report discusses the effects of climate, geology, and development on the source, occurrence, availability, quantity, movement, and chemical quality of the ground water. Most of the discussion pertains to ground water in the Quaternary valley fill, the principal water-bearing unit in the area, but it also includes some information about ground water in other rocks within the Cache Valley drainage basin.

Idaho, Utah↗

USGS2008

Techniques for Monitoring Razorback Sucker in the Lower Colorado River, Hoover to Parker Dams, 2006-2007, Final Report

Trammel netting is generally the accepted method of monitoring razorback sucker in reservoirs, but this method is ineffective for monitoring this fish in rivers. Trammel nets set in the current become fouled with debris, and nets set in backwaters capture high numbers of nontarget species. Nontargeted fish composed 97 percent of fish captured in previous studies (1999-2005). In 2005, discovery of a large spawning aggregation of razorback sucker in midchannel near Needles, Calif., prompted the development of more effective methods to monitor this and possibly other riverine fish populations. This study examined the effectiveness of four methods of monitoring razorback sucker in a riverine environment. Hoop netting, electrofishing, boat surveys, and aerial photography were evaluated in terms of data accuracy, costs, stress on targeted fish, and effect on nontargeted fish as compared with trammel netting. Trammel netting in the riverine portion of the Colorado River downstream of Davis Dam, Arizona-Nevada yielded an average of 43 razorback suckers a year (1999 to 2005). Capture rates averaged 0.5 razorback suckers per staff day effort, at a cost exceeding $1,100 per fish. Population estimates calculated for 2003-2005 were 3,570 (95 percent confidence limits [CL] = 1,306i??i??i??-8,925), 1,768 (CL = 878-3,867) and 1,652 (CL = 706-5,164); wide confidence ranges reflect the small sample size. By-catch associated with trammel netting included common carp, game fish and, occasionally, shorebirds, waterfowl, and muskrats. Hoop nets were prone to downstream drift owing to design and anchoring problems aggravated by hydropower ramping. Tests were dropped after the 2006 field season and replaced with electrofishing. Electrofishing at night during low flow and when spawning razorback suckers moved to the shoreline proved extremely effective. In 2006 and 2007, 263 and 299 (respectively) razorback suckers were taken. Capture rates averaged 8.3 razorback suckers per staff day at a cost of $62 per fish. The adult population was estimated at 1,196 (925-1,546) fish. Compared with trammel netting, confidence limits narrowed substantially, from +or- 500 percent to +or- 30 percent, reflecting more precise estimates. By-catch was limited to two common carp. No recreational game fish, waterfowl, or mammals were captured or handled during use of electrofishing. Aerial photography (2006 and 2007) suggested an annual average of 580 fish detected on imagery. Identification of species was not possible; carp commonly have been mistaken for razorback sucker. Field verification determined that the proportion of razorback suckers to other fish was 3:1. On that basis, we estimated 435 razorback suckers were photographed, which equals 8.4 razorback suckers per staff day at a cost of $78 per fish. The data did not lend itself to population estimates. Fish were more easily identified from boats, where their lateral rather than their dorsal aspect is visible. On average, 888 razorback suckers were positively identified each year. Observation rates averaged 29.6 razorback suckers per staff day at a cost less than $18 per fish observed. Sucker densities averaged 20.5 and 9.6 fish/hectare which equated to an average spawning population at Needles, Calif., of 2,520 in 2006 and 1152 in 2007. The lower 2007 estimate reflected a refinement in sampling approach which removed a sampling bias. Electrofishing and boat surveys were more cost effective than other methods tested, and they provided more accurate information without the by-catch associated with trammel netting. However, they provided different types of data. Handling fish may be necessary for research purposes but unnecessary for general trend analysis. Electrofishing was extremely effective but can harm fish if not used with caution. Unnecessary electrofishing increases the likelihood of spinal damage and possible damage to eggs and potential young, and it may alter spawning behavior or duration. B

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

Visualizing populations of North American sea ducks: Maps to guide research and management planning

North American sea ducks generally breed in mid- to northern-latitude regions and nearly all rely upon marine habitats for much of their annual cycle. Most sea duck species remained poorly studied until the 1990s when declines were noted in several species and populations. Subsequent research, much of which was funded by the Sea Duck Joint Venture, began in the late 1990s with an emphasis on defining use areas throughout the annual cycle, migration patterns, and determining if there were distinct populations, within species, across North America. These studies relied largely upon satellite telemetry information to identify winter, breeding, and molting areas of sea ducks. New information from band recovery and genetic markers was added, contributing to hypotheses and initial conclusions about population delineation. Information on population units across North America is critical for identifying appropriate scales for evaluating population status and trends through annual monitoring surveys, harvest assessments, habitat protection and measuring effectiveness of management applications. Previous descriptions of population segments were for single species or smaller groups of similar species. Here, we summarize current knowledge on the general distribution and population segments of 13 species of sea ducks in North America by comparing range maps to long-term band recovery, genetic, and satellite telemetry data to inform population delineation assessments and future research. These comparisons show a high degree of consistency in population patterns for most species across the independent data types. These maps provide a foundation for developing new hypothesis-driven research to address remaining knowledge gaps and questions about population differentiation, annual cycle distribution, habitat use, and harvest assessment.

North America↗

USGS1999

Biomonitoring of Environmental Status and Trends (BEST) Program: Field Procedures for Assessing the Exposure of Fish to Environmental Contaminants

This document describes procedures used to collect information, tissues, and fluids for documenting the exposure of fish to environmental contaminants. For the procedures described here, fish are captured (preferably by electrofishing) and held alive until processing (generally <1 h). Fish are weighed, measured, and examined for grossly visible external lesions and pathologies. A blood sample is collected by caudal veinipuncture using a needle and syringe. The fish is subdued and it's abdominal cavity opened. The internal organs are dissected from the fish for examination. The sex of the fish is determined by direct observation of its gonads. The liver is weighed (most species) and cut into small cubes and flash-frozen in cryogenic vials, which are stored and shipped in dry ice or liquid nitrogen. Additional liver cubes plus all grossly visible anomalies are preserved for histopathology. The gonads and spleen are weighed, and samples are preserved for histopathology. The kidneys are examined, and histopathology samples collected. A gill sample is also collected and preserved. All remaining tissues are returned to the carcass, which is wrapped in foil, labeled for chemical analysis, and chilled. Individual fish carcasses are composited by station, species, and gender; frozen; and shipped to the analytical laboratory. Procedures are also described for record keeping; processing blood to obtain serum and plasma; flash-freezing samples; cleaning equipment; and preventing the transport of living organisms among waterways. A list of necessary equipment and supplies is also provided.

Information and Technology Report↗

USGS2009

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in multi-model ensembles. The reasons behind these observations may relate to the effects of the weighting schemes, non-stationarity of the climate series and possible cross-correlations between models. Crown Copyright ?? 2008.

Advances in Water Resources↗

USGS1984

Characteristics of some silver-, and base metal-bearing, epithermal deposits of Mexico and Peru

Introduction Lithotectonic, mineralogical, and geochemical data on two silver- and base metal-bearing deposits from Peru and two from Mexico are compiled to facilitate comparisons with other epithermal deposits. Silver and base metal-bearing deposits of Mexico and Peru constitute an important portion of the world silver production derived from shallow, vein-type deposits hosted in volcanic rocks. Although these deposits are generally similar to epithermal deposits of Nevada and Colorado in the western United States, they have some important differences. Because of this, data on the geological attributes of these deposits are very useful for developing models of ore formation that can be used in mineral exploration. The data collected for this compilation are presented in the following pages in summaries of the important characteristics of each deposit. This compilation, which shows the complexities in the geology of epithermal ore deposits in Mexico and Peru, serves as a basis for further comparisons among epithermal deposits throughout the world. The case studies provide data useful to geologists and exploration!'sts interested in developing models of ore formation to be used in exploration for mineral deposits of this type. The deposits described in this report are the Guanajuato district of Guanajuato, Mexico, the Pachuca-Real del Monte district of Hidalgo, Mexico, the Colqui district of Lima, Peru, and the Julcani district of Huancavelica, Peru. Although many characteristics of the geology and geochemistry of this type of deposit were considered, the most important criterion for choosing these deposits was that they have substantial quantities of precious- and base-metal mineralization. Additional criteria for selecting the deposits were that they be hosted primarily by calc-alkaline volcanic rocks of intermediate to silicic composition and that they be younger than Tertiary in age. Many deposits in Mexico and Peru and other parts of Central and South America were excluded because the literature describing the districts is not readily available. Furthermore, many districts have not been examined in detail or the information available is of limited geological scope. The four districts that are compiled in this report were chosen because they are described in abundant literature dating from early mining reports on the general geology and mineralogy to very recent data on detailed geochemical and mineralogical studies. They were chosen as being fairly typical, classic examples of near-surface, low-temperature vein deposits as described by Lindgren (1928) in his treatise on ore deposits (Mineral deposits, McGraw-Hill, 1049 p.). These deposits are similar in aspects of their geology and geochemistry to many of the famous, epithermal silver mining districts in Colorado and Nevada including Creede, Colorado, Tonapah, Nevada, and the Sunnyside Mine of the Eureka district, Colorado, and, in the special case of Julcani, to Summitville, Colorado, and Goldfield, Nevada. The characteristics that distinguish them include overall size, production and alteration assemblage. The information documented in each summary will be used in a forthcoming series of papers on the comparative anatomy of precious and base metal deposits in North and South America.

Guanajuato, Hidalgo. Huancavelica, Lima↗

USGS2017

Long-term and widespread changes in agricultural practices influence ring-necked pheasant abundance in California

Declines in bird populations in agricultural regions of North America and Europe have been attributed to agricultural industrialization, increases in use of agrochemical application, and increased predation related to habitat modification. Based on count data compiled from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) from 1974 to 2012, Christmas Bird Count (CBC) collected from 1914 to 2013, and hunter data from Annual Game Take Survey (AGTS) for years 1948–2010, ring-necked pheasants ( Phasianus colchicus ) in California have experienced substantial declines in agricultural environments. Using a modeling approach that integrates all three forms of survey data into a joint response abundance index, we found pheasant abundance was related to the amount of harvested and unharvested crop land, types of crops produced, amount of total pesticide applied, minimum temperature, precipitation, and numbers of avian competitors and predators. Specifically, major changes in agricultural practices over the last three decades were associated with declines in pheasant numbers and likely reflected widespread loss of habitat. For example, increases in cropland were associated with increased pheasant abundance during early years of study but this effect decreased through time, such that no association in recent years was evidenced. A post hoc analysis revealed that crops beneficial to pheasant abundance (e.g., barley) have declined substantially in recent decades and were replaced by less advantageous crops (e.g., nut trees). An additional analysis using a restricted data set (1990–2013) indicated recent negative impacts on pheasant numbers associated with land use practices were also associated with relatively high levels of pesticide application. Our results may provide valuable information for management policies aimed at reducing widespread declines in pheasant populations in California and may be applicable to other avian species within agricultural settings. Furthermore, this general analytical approach is not limited to pheasants and could be applied to other taxa for which multiple survey data sources exist.

California↗

USGS2023

Identifying invasive species threats, pathways, and impacts to improve biosecurity

Managing invasive species with prevention and early-detection strategies can avert severe ecological and economic impacts. Horizon scanning, an evidence-based process combining risk screening and consensus building to identify threats, has become a valuable tool for prioritizing invasive species management and prevention. We assembled a working group of experts from academic, government, and nonprofit agencies and organizations, and conducted a multi-taxa horizon scan for Florida, USA, the first of its kind in North America. Our primary objectives were to identify high-risk species and their introduction pathways, to detail the magnitude and mechanism of potential impacts, and, more broadly, to demonstrate the utility of horizon scanning. As a means to facilitate future horizon scans, we document the process used to generate the list of taxa for screening. We evaluated 460 taxa for their potential to arrive, establish, and cause negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts, and identified 40 potential invaders, including alewife, zebra mussel, crab-eating macaque, and red swamp crayfish. Vertebrates and aquatic invertebrates posed the greatest invasion threat, over half of the high-risk taxa were omnivores, and there was high confidence in the scoring of high-risk taxa. Common arrival pathways were ballast water, biofouling of vessels, and escape from the pet/aquarium/horticulture trade. Competition, predation, and damage to agriculture/forestry/aquaculture were common impact mechanisms. We recommend full risk analysis for the high-risk taxa; increased surveillance at Florida's ports, state borders, and high-risk pathways; and periodic review and revision of the list. Few horizon scans detail the comprehensive methodology (including list-building), certainty estimates for all scoring categories and the final score, detailed pathways, and the magnitude and mechanism of impact. Providing this information can further inform prevention efforts and can be efficiently replicated in other regions. Moreover, harmonizing methodology can facilitate data sharing and enhance interpretation of results for stakeholders and the general public.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2016

Monitoring for the management of disease risk in animal translocation programmes

Monitoring is best viewed as a component of some larger programme focused on science or conservation. The value of monitoring is determined by the extent to which it informs the parent process. Animal translocation programmes are typically designed to augment or establish viable animal populations without changing the local community in any detrimental way. Such programmes seek to minimize disease risk to local wild animals, to translocated animals, and in some cases to humans. Disease monitoring can inform translocation decisions by (1) providing information for state-dependent decisions, (2) assessing progress towards programme objectives, and (3) permitting learning in order to make better decisions in the future. Here we discuss specific decisions that can be informed by both pre-release and post-release disease monitoring programmes. We specify state variables and vital rates needed to inform these decisions. We then discuss monitoring data and analytic methods that can be used to estimate these state variables and vital rates. Our discussion is necessarily general, but hopefully provides a basis for tailoring disease monitoring approaches to specific translocation programmes.

EcoHealth↗

USGS2012

Flood hydrology for Dry Creek, Lake County, Northwestern Montana

Dry Creek drains about 22.6 square kilometers of rugged mountainous terrain upstream from Tabor Dam in the Mission Range near St. Ignatius, Montana. Because of uncertainty about plausible peak discharges and concerns regarding the ability of the Tabor Dam spillway to safely convey these discharges, the flood hydrology for Dry Creek was evaluated on the basis of three hydrologic and geologic methods. The first method involved determining an envelope line relating flood discharge to drainage area on the basis of regional historical data and calculating a 500-year flood for Dry Creek using a regression equation. The second method involved paleoflood methods to estimate the maximum plausible discharge for 35 sites in the study area. The third method involved rainfall-runoff modeling for the Dry Creek basin in conjunction with regional precipitation information to determine plausible peak discharges. All of these methods resulted in estimates of plausible peak discharges that are substantially less than those predicted by the more generally applied probable maximum flood technique. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2020

The use of Bayesian priors in Ecology: The good, the bad and the not great

Bayesian data analysis (BDA) is a powerful tool for making inference from ecological data, but its full potential has yet to be realized. Despite a generally positive trajectory in research surrounding model development and assessment, far too little attention has been given to prior specification. Default priors, a sub‐class of non‐informative prior distributions that are often chosen without critical thought or evaluation, are commonly used in practice. We believe the fear of being too ‘subjective’ has prevented many researchers from using any prior information in their analyses despite the fact that defending prior choice (informative or not) promotes good statistical practice. In this commentary, we provide an overview of how BDA is currently being used in a random sample of articles, discuss implications for inference if current bad practices continue, and highlight sub‐fields where knowledge about the system has improved inference and promoted good statistical practices through the careful and justified use of informative priors. We hope to inspire a renewed discussion about the use of Bayesian priors in Ecology with particular attention paid to specification and justification. We also emphasize that all priors are the result of a subjective choice, and should be discussed in that way.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2008

Rethinking avian response to Tamarix on the lower Colorado River: A threshold hypothesis

Many of the world's large river systems have been greatly altered in the past century due to river regulation, agriculture, and invasion of introduced Tamarix spp. (saltcedar, tamarisk). These riverine ecosystems are known to provide important habitat for avian communities, but information on responses of birds to differing levels of Tamarix is not known. Past research on birds along the Colorado River has shown that avian abundance in general is greater in native than in non-native habitat. In this article, we address habitat restoration on the lower Colorado River by comparing abundance and diversity of avian communities at a matrix of different amounts of native and non-native habitats at National Wildlife Refuges in Arizona. Two major patterns emerged from this study: (1) Not all bird species responded to Tamarix in a similar fashion, and for many bird species, abundance was highest at intermediate Tamarix levels (40-60%), suggesting a response threshold. (2) In Tamarix-dominated habitats, the greatest increase in bird abundance occurred when small amounts of native vegetation were present as a component of that habitat. In fact, Tamarix was the best vegetation predictor of avian abundance when compared to vegetation density and canopy cover. Our results suggest that to positively benefit avian abundance and diversity, one cost-effective way to rehabilitate larger monoculture Tamarix stands would be to add relatively low levels of native vegetation (???20-40%) within homogenous Tamarix habitat. In addition, this could be much more cost effective and feasible than attempting to replace all Tamarix with native vegetation. ?? 2008 Society for Ecological Restoration International.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2005

Historical shoreline changes along the US Gulf of Mexico: A summary of recent shoreline comparisons and analyses

The US Geological Survey is systematically analyzing historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the United States. This National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project is developing standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that internally consistent updates can periodically be made to record coastal erosion and land loss along US shores. Recently, shoreline change maps and a report were published for states bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Long-term and short-term average rates of change were calculated by comparing three historical shorelines (1800s, 1930s, 1970s) with an operational mean high water shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) surveys (post-1998). The rates of change, statistical uncertainties, original shorelines, and complementary geographic information system layers, such as areas of beach nourishment, are available on an Internet Map Server (IMS). For the Gulf of Mexico region, rates of erosion are generally highest in Louisiana along barrier island and headland shores associated with the Mississippi delta. Erosion also is rapid along some barrier islands and headlands in Texas, whereas barrier islands in Mississippi are migrating laterally. Highest rates of erosion in Florida are generally localized around tidal inlets. The most stable Gulf beaches generally are along the west coast of Florida, where low wave energy and frequent beach nourishment minimize erosion. Some long beach segments in Texas have accreted as a result of net longshore drift convergence and around tidal inlets that have been stabilized by long jetties. Individuals and some communities have attempted to mitigate the effects of erosion by emplacement of coastal structures, but those efforts largely have been abandoned in favor of periodic beach nourishment.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2004

Acetamide herbicides and their degradation products in ground water and surface water of the United States, 1993-2003

During 1993 through 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a number of studies to investigate and document the occurrence, fate, and transport of acetamide herbicides and their degradation products in ground and surface water. As part of these studies, approximately 5,100 water samples were collected and analyzed for the acetamide parent herbicides acetochlor, alachlor, dimethenamid, flufenacet, and metolachlor and their degradation products ethanesulfonic acid, oxanilic acid, and sulfinyl acetic acid. During this period, various analytical methods were developed to detect and measure concentrations of acetamide herbicides and their degradation products in ground water and surface water. Results showed that the degradation products of acetamide herbicides in ground water were detected more frequently and occurred at higher concentrations than their parent compounds. Further study showed that the acetamide herbicides and their degradation products were detected more frequently in surface water than in ground water. In general, the parent compounds were detected at similar or greater frequencies than the degradation products in surface water. The developed methods and data were valuable for acquiring information about the occurrence, fate, and transport of the herbicides and their degradation products and the importance of analyzing for both parent compounds and their degradate products in water-quality studies.

Data Series↗

USGS2011

Changes in water levels and storage in the High Plains Aquifer, predevelopment to 2009

The High Plains aquifer underlies 111.8 million acres (175,000 square miles) in parts of eight States - Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. The area overlying the High Plains aquifer is one of the primary agricultural regions in the Nation. Water-level declines began in parts of the High Plains aquifer soon after the onset of substantial irrigation with groundwater from the aquifer (about 1950 and termed "predevelopment" in this fact sheet). By 1980, water levels in the High Plains aquifer in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and southwestern Kansas had declined more than 100 feet (ft) (Luckey and others, 1981). In 1987, in response to declining water levels, Congress directed the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with numerous Federal, State, and local water-resources entities, to assess and track water-level changes in the aquifer. This fact sheet summarizes changes in water levels and drainable water in storage in the High Plains aquifer from predevelopment to 2009. Drainable water in storage is the fraction of water in the aquifer that will drain by gravity and can be withdrawn by wells. The remaining water in the aquifer is held to the aquifer material by capillary forces and generally cannot be withdrawn by wells. Drainable water in storage is termed "water in storage" in this report. A companion USGS report presents more detailed and technical information about water-level and storage changes in the High Plains aquifer during this period (McGuire, 2011).

Colorado;Kansas;Nebraska;New Mexico;Oklahoma;South↗

USGS2002

Method of analysis and quality-assurance practices by the U.S. Geological Survey Organic Geochemistry Research Group: Determination of geosmin and methylisoborneol in water using solid-phase microextraction and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry

A method for the determination of two common odor-causing compounds in water, geosmin and 2-methylisoborneol, was modified and verified by the U.S. Geological Survey's Organic Geochemistry Research Group in Lawrence, Kansas. The optimized method involves the extraction of odor-causing compounds from filtered water samples using a divinylbenzene-carboxen-polydimethylsiloxane cross-link coated solid-phase microextraction (SPME) fiber. Detection of the compounds is accomplished using capillary-column gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Precision and accuracy were demonstrated using reagent-water, surface-water, and ground-water samples. The mean accuracies as percentages of the true compound concentrations from water samples spiked at 10 and 35 nanograms per liter ranged from 60 to 123 percent for geosmin and from 90 to 96 percent for 2-methylisoborneol. Method detection limits were 1.9 nanograms per liter for geosmin and 2.0 nanograms per liter for 2-methylisoborneol in 45-milliliter samples. Typically, concentrations of 30 and 10 nanograms per liter of geosmin and 2-methylisoborneol, respectively, can be detected by the general public. The calibration range for the method is equivalent to concentrations from 5 to 100 nanograms per liter without dilution. The method is valuable for acquiring information about the production and fate of these odor-causing compounds in water.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2006

High severity fire in forests of the southwest: Conservation implications. Progress Report August 2005

The occurrence of large, severe fires in southwestern ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests has resulted in concern that these forests may not persist under such an extreme disturbance regime. In our research, we are examining the outcomes of high-severity fire in ponderosa pine forests and their neighboring communities across an elevational gradient. One goal of our work is to contribute to understanding the resiliency of these systems, but we also want to investigate the conservation values intrinsic to the diverse communities that represent alternative successional trajectories after severe fire. One assumption of our research is that the spatial pattern of a disturbance becomes increasingly important when the disturbance is large and biological legacies are few and sparse. We ask, therefore, what spectrum of plant communities results from high severity fire, and what is their relationship to spatial patterns of severity mapped in early post fire timeframes? Also, do spatial patterns of older burns (1950–80) differ from recent burns (1998–present) in ways that make us expect successional changes years from now to differ from those we observed at our older burn field sites? Here, we describe the first stages of our work in mapping burn severity at old and new burns as well as the work we have recently completed at our two field sites. The report is organized under our two main objectives with the purpose of summarizing the steps we have taken in working toward these objectives, as well as changes we have made in methodologies since the original study plan. We present some general observations and plans for the next steps in data analysis and product generation. This report, the study plan, a photograph gallery, slide presentations, and our contact information are available on the project Web site http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/swfire/swfire.html .

Open-File Report↗

USGS2006

Development and application of a screening model for simulating regional ground-water flow in the St. Croix River basin, Minnesota and Wisconsin

A series of databases and an accompanying screening model were constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, to better understand the regional ground-water-flow system and its relation to stream drainage in the St. Croix River Basin. The St. Croix River and its tributaries drain about 8,000 square miles in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. The databases contain information for the entire St. Croix River Basin pertaining to well logs, lithology, thickness of lithologic groups, ground-water levels, streamflow, and well pumpage. Maps and generalized cross sections created from the compiled data show the lithologic groups, extending from the water table to the crystalline bedrock, through which ground water flows. These lithologic groups are: fine-grained unconsolidated deposits; coarse-grained unconsolidated deposits; sandstone bedrock; carbonate bedrock; and other bedrock lithologies including shale, siltstone, conglomerate, and igneous intrusions. The steady-state screening model treats the ground-water-flow system as a single layer with transmissivity zones that reflect the distribution of lithologic groups, and with recharge zones that correspond to general areas of high or low evapotranspiration. The model includes representation of second- and higher-order streams and municipal and other high-capacity production wells. The analytic-element model code GFLOW was used to simulate the regional ground-water flow, the water-table surface across the St. Croix River Basin, and base-flow contributions from ground water to streams. In addition, the model routes tributary base flow through the stream network to the St. Croix River. The parameter-estimation inverse model UCODE was linked to the GFLOW model to select the combination of parameter values best able to match over 5,000 water-level measurements and base-flow estimates at 22 streamflow-gaging stations. Results from the calibrated screening model show ground-water contributing areas for selected stream reaches within the basin. The delineation of these areas is useful to water-resource managers concerned with protection of fisheries and other resources. The model results also identify the areas of the basin where ground-water travel time from the water table to streams and wells is relatively short (less than 50 years). Ninety percent of the simulated ground-water pathlines require travel times between 3 and 260 years. The median pathline distance traversed and the median pathline velocity were 1.7 mi and 177 ft/y, respectively. It is important to recognize the limitations of this screening model. Heterogeneities in subsurface properties and in recharge rates are considered only at a very broad scale (miles to tens of miles). No account is taken of vertical variations in properties or pumping rates, and no provision is made to account for stacked ground-water-flow systems that have different flow patterns at different depths. Small-scale (hundreds to thousands of feet) flow systems associated with minor water bodies are neglected, and as a result, the model is not useful for simulating typical site-specific problems. Despite its limitations, the model serves as a framework for understanding the regional pattern of ground-water flow and as a starting point for a generation of more targeted and detailed ground-water models that would be needed to address emerging water-supply and water-quality concerns in the St. Croix River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗