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Between November 1947 and September 1949, the United States Geological Survey, at the request of the Atomic Energy Commission, conducted an exploratory drilling program in the Charles T. area and vicinity. The purpose of the exploration was to discover new carnotite deposits to support milling operations on the Colorado Plateau, and to appraise the uranium and vanadium resources of the area explored.
The Front Range of Colorado is composed chiefly of schists of the pre-Cambrian Idaho Springs formation which have been intruded by a variety of granitic batholiths. In the Crystal Mountain district the Mount Olympus granite, a satellite of the Longs Peak batholith, forms sills and essentially concordant multiple intrusions in quartz-mica schist that dips southward at moderate to steep angles. A great number of pegmatites accompanied and followed the intrusion of the sills, and formed concordant and discordant bodies in schist and granite. Over 1,300 pegmatites in the Hyatt area north of the Big Thompson River are mapped and individually described. There are 27 pegmatites in the area that are made up of a wall zone and a core, and one, the pegmatite at the Hyatt mine, is composed of five zones. The largest pegmatites in the area are discordant in schist and occupy zones that are interpreted to be tear faults and tension fractures produced by the successive intrusions of granite that formed multiple sills. The majority of pegmatites in the large multiple sills were emplaced along the foliation and fractures. The composition of 96 percent of the pegmatites is granitic, 3.5 percent are quartz-rich pegmatites, and a few are tourmaline-rich. The pegmatites were intruded over a period of time and probably were derived from a granitic magma at different stages during differentiation. Solutions escaping from many of the pegmatites tournalinized and silicified the wall rocks for a few inches to two feet, but chemical and spectrographic analyses fail to show the transport of any other constituents. Perthite, plagioclase, and quartz are the essential minerals of the pegmatites, and muscovite is a minor but widespread constituent. Tourmaline, garnet, beryl, and apatite are common accessory minerals, and lithiophillitite-triphylite, bismuthinite, uraninite, columbite-tantalite, and chrysoberyl are rare constituents. Beryl is found in 250 or 27 percent of the pegmatites and makes up 0.01 percent or more of 77 bodies. The beryl-bearing pegmatites are richest in two of the three large granite masses, and are somewhat less rich at a distance of more than a thousand feet from the margins of the intrusives, but contain the least beryl in the thousand-foot belt immediately surrounding the intrusives. The Hyatt pegmatite is by far the richest deposit of beryl in the area mapped. Most of the pegmatites mapped are "unzoned" or homogeneous pegmatites. All gradations are visible between bodies consisting of uniform texture and mineral distribution to zoned pegmatites. The interpretation is made that, for most pegmatites, the initial composition determines whether or not zones will form. Pegmatites containing many zones can form from a magma composed of the elements in perthite, plagioclase, quartz, and muscovite, depending on the proportions of the components crystallizing at any given time. The complexly zoned deposits depend for their formation on the presence of a number of the rarer elements, principally lithium. Replacement textures in zones result from the interaction of the rest-liquid with the earlier-formed solid crystals. No mappable pegmatite in the Crystal Mountain district formed from the replacement of pre-existing pegmatite by solutions escaping from the rest-liquid, or by solutions originating outside the pegmatite. Three beryl-bearing zoned pegmatites, the Hyatt, Big Boulder, and Buckhorn Mica deposits, were explored by core drilling. Each deposit is mapped and described in detail, and the mineral reserves evaluated. The exploration indicates a total of 2,000 tons of beryl, of which 480 tons is estimated to be recoverable by hand sorting. The mapping of the 3 3/4-square mile Hyatt area indicates beryl in sufficient abundance to infer beryl resources of an additional 1,150 tons. Small tonnages of scrap mica and perthite may be obtained from the Hyatt and Big Boulder prospects, and columbite-tantalite may occur in sufficient amounts at the Buckhorn Mica mine and Tantalum claim to produce several hundred pounds as a byproduct of beryl mining. Dumps at the various deposits contain 25 to 50 tons of beryl.
The Upper group area, which consists of 10 Government claims and adjoining public land, is 2 miles southeast of Slick Rock, San Miguel County, Colo., in unsurveyed secs. 5 and 6, T. 43 N., R. 18 W., New Mexico principal meridian. The area is equidistant from mills at Monticello, Utah, and Naturita, Colo. Both mills are reached by about 45 miles of all-weather roads. About 2,700 tons of carnotite ore was produced from the area between 1921 and 1943 (tons used in this report are short tons). This ore had an estimated average grade of 0.25 percent U30g and 1.7 percent V205. The ore deposits are in the top sandstone stratum of the Salt Wash sandstone member of the Tipper Jurassic Morrison formation. The principal ore-bearing minerals, which mainly impregnate the sandstone, consist of uranium-bearing carnotite and a micaceous vanadium-bearing mineral called “roscoelite." The deposits are mostly in small podlike masses called "rolls." The size of the rolls ranges from less than 50 to more than 1,500 tons each. The long axes of the rolls have a dominant northeasterly to easterly trend. Exploration by the Geological Survey was done on behalf of the Atomic Energy Commission to test unexplored ground for new deposits of carnotite ore and to gain a better appraisal of the reserves in the area. From 1948 to 1950, 186 diamond-drill holes were completed for a total of 14,577 feet. The areas of favorable sandstone were found and defined by holes drilled 300 to 500 feet apart. Altered mudstone, carbonaceous material in the sandstone, and color of the sandstone were used to determine the favorability of the sandstone. Within areas containing favorable sandstone holes were drilled on 100- to 150-foot centers to find deposits. Where deposits were found more than 20 feet below the surface, they were roughly outlined by holes drilled on 50- to 75- foot centers. Deposits discovered within 20 feet of the surface were not outlined. Reserves in deposits found by the drilling are classed as indicated and inferred, whereas those reserves that are predicted solely on geologic evidence are classed as potential. Indicated reserves computed at the highest thickness and grade cut-offs (1 foot or more thick and 0.10 percent U3O8 or .10 percent V205) total 5,000 tons, averaging 0.19 percent U308 and 1.6 percent V205. Inferred reserves computed at the same cut-offs total 3,500 tons, averaging .22 percent U308 and 1.7 percent V205. Both the indicated and inferred reserves, as well as the pounds of contained U3O8and V205, are summarized in table 1. Potential reserves are predicted to total about 1,500 tons, averaging about 0.20 percent U3O8 and 1.6 percent V205. Most of the potential reserves are expected to be in small scattered deposits within 20 feet of the surface. No additional diamond drilling by the Geological Survey is planned in the Upper group area. Several specific localities, principally in the central part of the area, are recommended for further exploration by jackhammer and wagon drilling by lessees and operators.
Club Mesa is 1 mile west of Uravan, Montrose County, Colo. About 200,000 short tons of carnotite ore containing an estimated 0.45 percent U 3 O 8 and 2.1 percent V 2 O 5 has been mined from the mesa. This production represents about one-fifth of the carnotite ore mined from the Colorado Plateau. All the principal deposits on the mesa are in the main ore-bearing sandstone which is in the top part of the Salt Wash sandstone member of the Jurassic Morrison formation. The deposits are in tabular masses of uneven thickness lying more or less parallel to the enclosing strata. The ore consists mainly of sandstone impregnated with carnotite and vanadiferous clay minerals. The sandstone near the deposits is generally over 30 feet in thickness, contains noticeable quantities of carbon, and vivid patches of limonite (?) stain. Also near ore deposits, the mudstone in contact with the sandstone is altered from red to gray or green through a thickness of 3 or 4 feet. Certain linear features of the ore bodies and of favorable parts of the main ore-bearing sandstone offer clues by their orientation to extensions of known ore bodies and of favorable ground. These features on Club Mesa trend mostly east to northeast. Between March 6, 1948, and January 22, 1952, the U.S. Geological Survey drilled 651 holes for a total of 167,495 feet. As a result of this drilling, 18 deposits were discovered and partly outlined. These range in size from 200 to 55,000 short tons of indicated ore reserves and are in layers 1 foot or more thick containing 0.10 percent or more U 3 O 8 or 1.0 percent or more V 2 O 5 . About 85 percent of this ore is in public land; the remainder is in claims owned by the United States Vanadium Co. Reserves in deposits known from drill holes or exposures are classed as indicated or inferred, and those in deposits that are predicted solely on geologic evidence are classed as potential. The tons of indicated and inferred reserves and the pounds of contained U 3 O 8 and V 2 O 5 are summarized in table 1. These reserves are subdivided also by thickness and grade cutoffs. At the higher grade cutoff, reserve figures express approximately the tonnage and grade of material that might actually be mined from these deposits under 1951 conditions. Indicated and inferred reserves of this type total 198,000 short tons, averaging 0.35 percent U 3 O 8 and 1.8 percent V 2 O 5, and contain 1,1,372,000 pounds of U 3 O 8 and 7,260,000 pounds of V 2 O 5. These reserves are based on Geological Survey drilling. Potential reserves are predicted to total about 40,000 short tons, averaging about 0.35 percent U 3 O 8 and 1.9 percent V 2 O 5 . No additional exploration on Club Mesa is planned by the Geological Survey, but exploration by private companies is recommended.
The U.S. Geological Survey explored Outlaw Mesa for carnotite deposits from 1949 through 1951 with 1,302 diamond-drill holes that totaled 222,150 feet. Total production from Outlaw Mesa from 1914 through 1951 was about 30,000 short tons of carnotite ore, having an estimated grade of about 0.40 percent U3O8 and 1.7 percent V205. The known carnotite deposits are in a number of sandstone lenses in the upper part of the Salt Wash sandstone member of the Jurassic Morrison formation. The deposits are mainly impregnations of sandstone by carnotite and vanadium-bearing clay minerals. Commonly, the deposits are irregular tabular layers or pod-like or crescentic masses ("rolls") connected by thin layers of mineralized rock. The deposits and rolls have a dominant northeasterly trend. Useful criteria for recognizing-sandstone that might contain mineralized rock are: (1) thick, light-brown sandstone, (2) gray mudstone at the base of and in this sandstone, and (3) abundant carbonaceous material. The indicated and inferred reserves of carnotite-bearing material, and the pounds of contained U308 and V205 are summarized in table 1. Potential reserves, whose existence is based on geologic evidence alone, are estimated to total about 80,000 short tones, averaging about 0.35 percent U308 and 1.5percent V205. No further exploration by the Geological Survey is planned; however, additional drilling by private operators is recommended, particularly in ground underlain by mineralized rock.
The Wet Mountain thorium district was discovered in 1950 by members of the U.S. Geological Survey during reconnaissance investigations for uranium made on the behalf of the Atomic Energy Commission The size of this new district is incompletely known, but the deposits found to date are in an area 20 miles long and about 10 miles wide, the southwest boundary of which extends northwest from Querida and Rosita Custer County, into Fremont County. Most of the deposits, however, are in the southeastern half of this area The thorium minerals occur in barite-sulfide veins along northwest-trending shear zones that cut a pre-Cambrian complex or amphibolite, biotite-granite gneiss, metagabbro, migmatite, microcline granites, pegmatite and white granite, and syenite (?) o Along the shear zones are premineralization basic (lamprophyre (?)) dikes. Thorite has been tentatively identified as the principal radio- active mineral It is associated with barite: quartz, galena, fluorite, limonite, and pyrite Some of the shear zones perhaps can be traced for as much as 2 miles, but the largest known thorium-bearing ore body is as much as 300 feet long, 26 feet wide, and 400 feet deep. Samples from the veins contain as much as 1.6 percent equivalent Th0 2 Eleven diamond drill holes, totaling 3,292.4 feet have explored five shear zones on the Haputa Ranch. Three ore bodies of possible economic interest are indicated in two interconnecting shear zones. No other deposits in the wet Mountains have been explored, or even sampled adequately to hazard an estimate as to grade and tonnage of reserves.
This report is a survey of present and potential production of monazite from part of the Maryland-Florida section of the Atlantic Coastal Plain. The part of the Coastal Plain covered here is the outer (shore-ward) half. In this area, all the large heavy-mineral placers so far discovered occur in sand bodies that, by their shape, size, orientation, and lithology, appear to be ancient beaches, spits, bars, or dunes. Smaller placers have produced from recent shore-line features. The inner part of the Coastal Plain, to be treated in another report, is underlain generally by older rocks, ranging in age from Cretaceous to older Pleistocene. Only two large heavy-mineral placers are now in production at Trail Ridge, and near Jacksonville, both in Florida. Production is planned for the near future near Yulee, Fla.: in Folkston, Ga.: and at one or two localities in eastern North Carolina. Each of these three will produce monazite as a byproduct; the total new reserve for the three placers is about 33,000 tons of monazite. In large heavy-mineral placers of this type, monazite has not been found to run more than about 1 percent of total heavy minerals. In some large placers, notably Trail Ridge, it is almost or completely lacking. No reason for its sporadic occurrence has been found in this investigation. Two placers of potential economic value have been found by this project in Virginia, one west and one east of Chesapeake Bay. Neither is of promise for monazite production, but if they serve to open up exploration or production in the area, there is a chance for monazite as a byproduct from other placers. A discovery of considerable scientific interest has to do with the occurrence of two different suites of heavy minerals in the Coastal Plain, at least south of Virginia. One, an “older” suite, lacks epidote, hornblende, and garnet; this suite occurs in all older formations and in Pleistocene deposits lying above about 50 or 60 feet above sea level. The other, “younger” suite contains these three minerals: it is restricted to recent beaches and streams, and to Pleistocene deposits at low altitudes. Monazite may occur with either of these suites. The percentage of titania (TiO 2 ) in illmenite is of both scientific and economic interest. Illmenite is by far the most sought-for mineral in present exploration, and whether it contains the “normal” 53 percent of titania or, as it commonly does in Florida, 60 percent, is often of decisive importance in its exploitation. The nature, time, and place of this “enrichment” in titania has not been worked out. The heavy-mineral industry of the area seems to give promise of considerable expansion in the near future, and a greater monazite production seems assured.
During 1954, 1955, and 1956, 324 water samples were collected in western Kansas, eastern Colorado, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and northeastern New Mexico, to determine the uranium content of water from the various rock units and geologic terranes in the region, and to locate areas in which, large amounts of uranium in the water might reflect the presence of nearby uranium accumulations. Three geologic terranes are present in the report area: the Tertiary-Quaternary tuff ace o us terrane, the Upper Cretaceous shale terrane, and the upper Permian through Lower Cretaceous sandstone terrane. The average uranium content of 179 water samples from the tuffaceous terrane, which is composed primarily of tuffaceous, fluviatile rocks ranging in age from Pliocene to Pleistocene, is 6.7 parts per billion. A total of 48 samples from the Upper Cretaceous shale terrane, which is composed almost entirely of shale and limestone of marine origin, contain an average of 20.4 parts per billion uranium , Sandstone, silt stone, and clay stone of terrestrial and near-shore marine origin are the predominant constituents of the upper Permian through Lower Cretaceous sandstone terrane, and the 83 water samples collected from, or related to, rock units of this terrane contain an average of 10.2 parts per billion uranium. The average uranium content figure derived for the tipper Cretaceous shale terrane may not be representative of the uranium content of waters from this terrane throughout the report area because more than half of the samples assigned to the terrane were collected in an area in which most water samples contain relatively large amounts of uranium. Compared to the shale terrane, the tuffaceous terrane and the sandstone terrane are both represented by a greater number of samples collected over a much larger area and the average uranium content figures derived for them are believed to be representative of the uranium content of waters from, or related to, rock units of the two terranes in the report area. The average uranium content figures derived for different rock units, or groups of rock units, subdivided by the source type from which the samples were collected (well, spring, stream, municipal water system, reservoir, or lake), and in some cases by geographic parts of the report area, are believed to be of more potential use in any future hydrogeochemical exploration in the area than are the average uranium content figures derived for the three geologic terranes. The average uranium content of ground-water samples from 12 individual rock units or groups of rock units ranges from less than 1. 0 to 38 parts per billion. Several rock units were sampled over large enough areas to indicate that waters from the same rock unit in different parts of the report area may range widely in average uranium content. Water samples from some of the rock units in the area, particularly those of Triassic and Permian age, contain large amounts of uranium, and in some parts of the report area, such as the Cimarron River area of westernmost Oklahoma and northeastern New Mexico, and the Rule Creek area in Bent and Las Animas Counties, Colo. , most, or all, of the water samples collected contain relatively large amounts of uranium. Further exploration to determine the source of the uranium in the water from these rock units and areas may be worthwhile.
Radioactive rock was discovered on the dump of the Copper King mine, sec. 8, T. 10 N., R. 72 W., Larirrier County, Colo., in the summer of 1949. The mine had been prospected intermittently for copper and zinc since 1,916, but there is no record that ore was produced. The country rock is pre-Cambrian granite containing many schist inclusions and narrow pegmatite dikes. Pitchblende disseminated in chlorite and sulfides was deposited in an obscure vein system during an intermediate stage of mineralization. This stage was preceded by biotitic alteration of amphiboles and sulfide deposition. The latest stage of mineralization is represented-by the limonitic dense quartz vein followed during mining. The uranium-bearing vein is about 2-3 feet wide and the dense quartz vein is less than 6 inches wide. Both veins are bordered by 1-3 feet of biotite- and sulfide-bearing granite and arriphibole schist. The uranium content of 26 samples taken in the mine and on the dump ranges from 0.002 to 1.40 percent. These samples contained as much as 2.97 percent copper and 5.96 percent zinc. The general outlook for further prospecting near the Copper King shaft is not favorable, because much of the 'immediately surrounding area has been thoroughly investigated without finding abnormal radioactivity. The most favorable environment for concentration of uranium minerals appears to have been in or near schist inclusions in granite, and further exploration in nearby prospects may result in the discovery of other uranium-bearing deposits. In the Copper King mine, additional exploration would aid in determining the extent of the uranium-bearing material.
Executive Summary This guide is intended to provide managers, decision makers, and other practitioners with advice on conducting a rapid assessment of the social dimensions of drought. Findings from a rapid assessment can provide key social context that may aid in decision making, such as when preparing a drought plan, allocating local drought resilience funding, or gathering the support of local agencies and organizations for collective action related to drought mitigation. Part I —In the introduction to Part I, we describe the unique problems associated with drought—particularly its slow onset and long duration, which make it difficult to define drought—and highlight five major types of drought (see Box 1). We introduce a few social dimensions of drought (such as economic and institutional perspectives), demonstrate how these dimensions can be interrelated, and describe a few of the modern challenges (such as transformational change and cascading risks) that practitioners face. We also provide background on the rapid assessment method, first describing it as a “snapshot” of the social landscape, then providing some key advantages of the method (it can be quicker and cheaper than more in-depth methods), and lastly describing how secondary data and other methods can help overcome some of the disadvantages of rapid assessments. Then, after summarizing the process of developing this guide, we outline the process of using the guide. Importantly, we compare the guide to a travel guide, which provides many different types of information and is best approached with specific interests in mind. Ultimately, we hope for this guide to be malleable enough that it can be helpful to researchers and practitioners in many different contexts, using many different research methods. Related to how to use the guide, we characterize the type of person who might be motivated to use this guide. We also specify key qualifications for a researcher conducting a rapid assessment, drawing particular attention to training on ethical considerations. We sketch out key considerations when choosing social dimensions of drought to focus on, and the type of data used for analysis. First, it is important to note that in this guide we provide nine important social dimensions of drought, but this is by no means a comprehensive list, and a researcher may find that other dimensions better fit their local context. Second, we provide some pros and cons to a narrow (focusing on just a few dimensions or at a smaller scale) versus broad research focus. Lastly, we describe the pros and cons of using primary versus secondary data (one strategy is to use both, sequentially) and qualitative versus quantitative data. Ultimately, Part I of this guide functions as an exploration of the various decisions a researcher will make when designing a rapid assessment. These decisions will inform the type of findings and other outcomes that result from the rapid assessment. Part II —Part II of this guide introduces nine key social dimensions of drought: defining the problem of drought, individual perceptions, social relationships, technology, economics and livelihoods, water governance, decision making, information, and social vulnerability. Each section provides background and key considerations related to a particular dimension, as well as ideas for how to explore the dimension via a rapid assessment. Part III —Part III of this guide provides two hypothetical examples of how one might use this guide to aid the practitioner in implementing the lessons learned here. In the first example, a watershed group uses two dimensions, defining the problem of drought and social relationships, to inform a community meeting about protecting fisheries from drought. In the second example, a resource manager uses the economics and livelihoods and social vulnerability dimensions to inform the development of a livestock grazing drought management plan.
Observed ground-water-level declines from 1991 to 2003 in northern Monroe County, Michigan, are consistent with increased ground-water demands in the region. In 1991, the estimated ground-water use in the county was 20 million gallons per day, and 80 percent of this total was from quarry dewatering. In 2001, the estimated ground-water use in the county was 30 million gallons per day, and 75 percent of this total was from quarry dewatering. Prior to approximately 1990, the ground-water demands were met by capturing natural discharge from the area and by inducing leakage through glacial deposits that cover the bedrock aquifer. Increased ground-water demand after 1990 led to declines in ground-water level as the system moves toward a new steady-state. Much of the available natural discharge from the bedrock aquifer had been captured by the 1991 conditions, and the response to additional withdrawals resulted in the observed widespread decline in water levels. The causes of the observed declines were explored through the use of a regional ground-water-flow model. The model area includes portions of Lenawee, Monroe, Washtenaw, and Wayne Counties in Michigan, and portions of Fulton, Henry, and Lucas Counties in Ohio. Factors, including lowered water-table elevations because of below average precipitation during the time period (1991 - 2001) and reduction in water supply to the bedrock aquifer because of land-use changes, were found to affect the regional system, but these factors did not explain the regional decline. Potential ground-water capture for the bedrock aquifer in Monroe County is limited by the low hydraulic conductivity of the overlying glacial deposits and shales and the presence of dense saline water within the bedrock as it dips into the Michigan Basin to the west and north of the county. Hydrogeologic features of the bedrock and the overlying glacial deposits were included in the model design. An important step of characterizing the bedrock aquifer was the determination of inputs and outputs of water—leakage from glacial deposits and flows across model boundaries. The imposed demands on the groundwater system create additional discharge from the bedrock aquifer, and this discharge is documented by records and estimates of water use including: residential and industrial use, irrigation, and quarry dewatering. Hydrologic characterization of Monroe County and surrounding areas was used to determine the model boundaries and inputs within the ground-water model. MODFLOW-2000 was the computer model used to simulate ground-water flow. Predevelopment, 1991, and 2001 conditions were simulated with the model. The predevelopment model did not include modern water use and was compared to information from early settlement of the county. The 1991 steady-state model included modern demands on the ground-water system and was based on a significant amount of data collected for this and previous studies. The predevelopment and 1991 simulations were used to calibrate the numerical model. The simulation of 2001 conditions was based on recent data and explored the potential ground-water levels if the current conditions persist. Model results indicate that the ground-water level will stabilize in the county near current levels if the demands imposed during 2001 are held constant.
The water-bearing potential of the geologic formations in the western part of Santa Cruz County, Calif., is evaluated. Most of the sedimentary formations in this area are fine-grained rocks of Tertiary age that have been folded and faulted. These rocks, in general, yield supplies of water sufficient only for individual domestic supplies. The Lompico and Santa Margarita Sandstones, however, are coarser grained and have the potential to yield moderate quantities of water (50-100 gallons per minute). Areas where the Lompico Sandstone might warrant explorations are (1) near and on the west side of the Ben Lomond fault, (2) near and south of the outcrop of the Lompico Sandstone between Ben Lomond and Felton, and (3) in the area near Bald Mountain School. The Santa Margarita Sandstone should be explored by test drilling in the area between Davenport and Bonnie Doon. The quality of ground water is generally good, although saline water occurs in the San Lorenzo Formation near Redwood Grove and Riverside Grove. (Woodard-USGS)
Well inventories, water level measurements, groundwater quality samples, surface geophysical techniques (specifically, electromagnetic techniques), and test drilling were used to investigate the extent and sources of groundwater contamination in the alluvial aquifer near West Point, Kentucky. This aquifer serves as the principal source of drinking water for over 50,000 people. Groundwater flow in the alluvial aquifer is generally unconfined and moves in a northerly direction toward the Ohio River. Two large public supply well fields and numerous domestic wells are located in this natural flow path. High concentrations of chloride in groundwater have resulted in the abandonment of several public supply wells in the West Point areas. Chloride concentrations in water samples collected for this study were as high as 11,000 mg/L. Electromagnetic techniques indicated and test drilling later confirmed that the source of chloride in well waters was probably improperly plugged or unplugged, abandoned oil and gas exploration wells. The potential for chloride contamination of wells exists in the study area and is related to proximity to improperly abandoned oil and gas exploration wells and to gradients established by drawdowns associated with pumped wells. Periodic use of surface geophysical methods, in combination with added observation wells , could be used to monitor significant changes in groundwater quality related to chloride contamination. (USGS)
Ground water from regional alluvial-aquifer systems is the main source of water in the alluvial basins of Arizona, such as Avra Valley. Ground-water flow models are used to assess ground-water availability and the effects of development on the regional ground-water resources. A postaudit of regional-head and transmissivity estimates and the ground-water flow models of Avra Valley was used to evaluate potential errors in the distribution of aquifer properties and recharge that can cause predictive errors in ground-water models. Simulations of predevelopment conditions in 1940 and historical development conditions for 1960-79 provided the basis of comparison for assessing predictive errors of historical conditions for two regional ground-water flow models. Potential errors in the estimation of the regional-head and transmissivity and alternate conceptual models were compared with an existing calibrated two-layer flow model for predevelopment (1940) and developed conditions (1940-85). Measured heads can be subdivided into a north-central region and a region south of the basin constriction. A more variable regional-head surface typical of developed aquifer systems was indicated by kriged developed heads (1985) with about 50 percent more uncertainty than predevelopment heads (1940). Incorporating heads from adjacent basins at the ground-water inflow and outflow regions reduced uncertainty in kriged heads for these boundary areas. Universal cokriging of heads with the strongly correlated land-surface altitudes may improve regional-head estimates and model comparisons where head data are sparse. Local transmissivity estimates can be subdivided into northern and south-central regions that are distributed along the valley axis and the Santa Cruz River. Regional geostatistical estimates of transmissivity, which are based solely on local estimates, are low in the northern part of Avra Valley and are high in the south-central part when compared with the head-conditioned model-derived estimates. These differences may be related to a systematic bias between aquifer-test conditions and methods of aquifer-test analysis. Cokriging transmissivities with specific capacity and silt-and-clay content provided the least uncertainty of all kriged estimates. Predictive errors for the Avra Valley model are the result of a different combination of factors that become significant in the simulation of ground-water flow for the periods representing predevelopment, historical development, and future development conditions. Predictive errors for simulation of predevelopment conditions are caused by potential systematic errors in estimates of local transmissivity, uncertainty in long-term mountain-front recharge, and uncertainty in predevelopment heads along the margins of the basin where recharge and transmissivity estimates are constrained by heads during model calibration. Analog-model historical predictions of future development indicate changes to 1985 were as much as 50 to 100 feet different from actual declines that were caused by errors in the spatial distribution and not the total amount of estimated future pumpage. Predictive errors for simulation of historical development (1960-79) appear to be caused to a greater extent by combined errors in estimates of transmissivity and storage properties and to a lesser extent by estimates of net withdrawal and subsidence. Comparison of the two digital models resulted in differences in transmissivity of as much as 30,000 feet squared per day and differences in specific yield of as much as 0.1. In combination with some differences in net withdrawal, these model-parameter differences resulted in local differences in change in storage of as much as 4,000 acre-feet per square mile and are equivalent to historical predictive errors in water levels of as much as 40 feet. Areas with no differences in model parameters yield comparable simulated water-level declines that are similar to measured declines. The pattern of differences in transmissivity and storage parameters are similar to differences between model-derived estimates conditioned on heads and related geostatistical estimates derived from aquifer-test estimates. A postaudit analysis of alternate conceptual models was explored on the basis of well-by-well comparisons of reductions in mean error and variance, and through the use of standardized calibration-error maps for predevelopment heads (1940) and developed heads (1985). Calibration-error maps provide a useful tool for exploring the spatial structure of model errors and the relative adequacy of model fit that is not available from traditional methods of model comparison. Calibration-error maps indicate estimated heads were too high in the southern part of Avra Valley, and estimated heads were too low in the northern part. Increased transmissivity in the southern part of the lower model layer; decreased hydraulic conductivity in the southwestern part of the upper layer; reduced ground-water inflow from Altar Valley; and increased recharge along the Tortolita Mountains, Tucson Mountains, and Brawley Wash yielded a significantly better model for predevelopment but not for developed conditions (1940-85). This may indicate that alternate conceptual models are different for different time periods or require analysis of time-varying model parameters for developed conditions, such as climatically variable recharge. Predictive errors for future simulations (1986-2025) also could potentially include errors of more than 40 ft from omission of subsidence from the simulation of regional ground-water flow in Avra Valley. Further refinement of the changing conceptual model of an aquifer system under continuing development and variable climate, such as Avra Valley, will require a variety of additional geophysical, geochemical, and hydraulic field data.
Increasing population and associated residential and commercial development have greatly increased water use and consumption in the Verde Valley near Montezuma Well, a unit of Montezuma Castle National Monument in central Arizona. Flow from Montezuma Well and water levels in eight wells that are measured annually do not indicate that the ground-water system has been affected by development. Additional data are needed to develop an adequate ground-water monitoring program so that future effects of development can be detected. Monitoring the ground-water system would detect changes in discharge from the Montezuma Well or changes in the ground-water system that might indicate a potential change of flow to the well. Water samples were collected, and field measurements of specific conductance, pH, temperature, and dissolved oxygen were made throughout the pond at Montezuma Well during an exploration in May 1991. The exploration included two fissures in the bottom of the pond that were filled with sand. The sand in the fissures was kept in suspension by water entering the pond. Water chemistry indicates that the ground water from the area is a mixed combination of calcium, magnesium, sodium, and bicarbonate type water. The analyses for 18O/16O and 2H/1H show that the water from the wells and springs in the area, including Montezuma Well, has been exposed to similar environmental conditions and could have had similar flow paths. The MODFLOW finite-difference ground-water model was used to develop an uncalibrated interpretive model to study possible mechanisms for discharge of water at Montezuma Well. The study presents the hypothesis that ground water in the Supai Formation is the source of discharge to Montezuma Well because of the differences between the surface elevation of the pond at Montezuma Well and the stage in the adjacent Wet Beaver Creek. A series of simulations shows that upward flow from the Supai Formation is a possible mechanism for discharge to Montezuma Well, and that a geologic structure in the Supai Formation could play a role in the upward movement of water to Montezuma Well. The mechanism for inflow from the Verde Formation is not understood; however, this study concludes that the Verde Formation, Supai Formation, and other underlying rock units are probably the sources of water to Montezuma Well.
The population of the Atlanta Metropolitan area continues to grow at a rapid pace and the demand for water supplies steadily increases. Exploration for ground-water resources, as a supplement to surface-water supplies, is being undertaken by many city and county governments. The application of effective investigative methods to characterization of the complex igneous and metamorphic fractured bedrock aquifers of the Piedmont physiographic province is essential to the success of these ground-water exploration programs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Lawrenceville, Ga., began a study in December 1994 to apply various investigative techniques for field characterization of fractured crystalline-bedrock aquifers near Lawrenceville. Five major lithologic units were mapped in the Lawrenceville, Ga., area as part of an ongoing study of ground-water resources-amphibolite, biotite gneiss, button schist, granite gneiss, and quartzite/aluminous schist. These units generally are thin in outcrop width, have low angles of dip (nearly 0 to 20 degrees, dip reversals occur over short distances), and exhibit some shearing characteristics. The most productive unit for ground-water resources, on the basis of subsurface data collected through 1997, is the amphibolite. Historically, two wells drilled into this unit are recognized as having possibly the highest yields in the Piedmont region of northern Georgia. The City of Lawrenceville refurbished one well at the Rhodes Jordan Wellfield in 1990, and has pumped this well at an average rate of about 230 gallons per minute since 1995. In general, the composition of water collected from the bedrock wells, regolith wells, and City Lake is similar; calcium and bicarbonate are the dominant cation and anion, respectively. Water from the regolith wells and the lake have lower concentrations of major ions than does water from the bedrock wells. Many of the ground-water samples collected from the Rhodes Jordan Wellfield during October-November 1995, and from the wellfield and three additional observation well sites during August 1996, contain volatile organic compounds. Volatile organic compounds were detected in ground-water samples collected from several bedrock and regolith wells located in urban areas. Trace concentrations of tetrachloroethylene, trichloroethylene, 1,1-dichloroethane, trichlorofluoromethane, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and cis-1,2-dichloroethene were detected. Methyl-tert-butyl ether (MTBE)-a compound used to increase the octane level in gasoline-was detected at concentrations above expected urban background levels in bedrock wells in the Rhodes Jordan Wellfield. Concentrations of MTBE ranged from 0.6 to 12 micrograms per liter in October-November 1995, and from 0.6 to 26 micrograms per liter in August 1996. Continuous ground-water-level data suggest that the fractured crystalline-bedrock aquifer (amphibolite unit) at the Rhodes Jordan Wellfield, generally is dewatered to a depth near a productive fracture during the regular pumping cycle of 18 hours per day, 5 days on and 2 days off per week. However, when the stress on the aquifer is increased by extending the pumping period up to as much as 18 days, or by pumping longer that 18 hours per day, the aquifer exhibits an unusual condition of recovery. Areal effects of pumping have been observed at distances of as much as one mile, extending across surface-water drainage divides.
Lampreys (Petromyzontiformes) are an ancient group of fishes with complex life histories. We created a life cycle model that includes an R Shiny interactive web application interface to simulate abundance by life stage. This will allow scientists and managers to connect available demographic information in a framework that can be applied to questions regarding lamprey biology and conservation. We used Pacific lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) as a case study to highlight the utility of this model. We applied a global sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of individual life stage parameters to overall population size, and to better understand the implications of existing gaps in knowledge. We also provided example analyses of selected management scenarios (dam passage, fish translocations, and hatchery additions) influencing Pacific lamprey in fresh water. These applications illustrate how the model can be applied to inform conservation efforts. This tool will provide new capabilities for users to explore their own questions about lamprey biology and conservation. Simulations can hone hypotheses and predictions, which can then be empirically tested in the real world.
The formation and spatial distribution of phytoplankton blooms in estuaries are controlled by (1) local mechanisms, which determine the production-loss balance for a water column at a particular spatial location (i.e. control if a bloom is possible), and (2) transport-related mechanisms, which govern biomass distribution (i.e. control if and where a bloom actually occurs). In this study, the first of a 2-paper series, we use a depth-averaged numerical model as a theoretical tool to describe how interacting local conditions (water column height, light availability, benthic grazing) influence the local balance between phytoplankton sources and sinks. We also explore trends in the spatial variability of the production-loss balance across the topographic gradients between deep channels and lateral shoals which are characteristic of shallow estuaries. For example, under conditions of high turbidity and slow benthic grazing the highest rates of phytoplankton population growth are found in the shallowest regions. On the other hand, with low turbidity and rapid benthic grazing the highest growth rates occur in the deeper areas. We also explore the effects of semidiurnal tidal variation in water column height, as well as spring-neap variability. Local population growth in the shallowest regions is very sensitive to tidal-scale shallowing and deepening of the water column, especially in the presence of benthic grazing. A spring-neap signal in population growth rate is also prominent in the shallow areas. Population growth in deeper regions is less sensitive to temporal variations in tidal elevation. These results show that both shallow and deep regions of estuaries can act as sources or sinks for phytoplankton biomass, depending on the local conditions of mean water column height, tidal amplitude, light-limited growth rate, and consumption by grazers.