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Geologic effects of the March 1964 earthquake and associated seismic sea waves on Kodiak and nearby islands, Alaska

Kodiak Island and the nearby islands constitute a mountainous landmass with an aggregate area of 4,900 square miles that lies at the western border of the Gulf of Alaska and from 20 to 40 miles off the Alaskan mainland. Igneous and metamorphic rocks underlie most of the area except for a narrow belt of moderately to poorly indurated rocks bordering the Gulf of Alaska coast and local accumulations of unconsolidated alluvial and marine deposits along the streams and coast. The area is relatively undeveloped and is sparsely inhabited. About 4,800 of the 5,700 permanent residents in the area live in the city of Kodiak or at the Kodiak Naval Station. The great earthquake, which occurred on March 27, 1964, at 5:36 p.m. Alaska standard time (March 28,1964, 0336 Greenwich mean time), and had a Richter magnitude of 8.4-8.5, was the most severe earthquake felt on Kodiak Island and its nearby islands in modern times. Although the epicenter lies in Prince William Sound 250 miles northeast of Kodiak—the principal city of the area—the areal distribution of the thousands of aftershocks that followed it, the local tectonic deformation, and the estimated source area of the subsequent seismic sea wave, all suggest that the Kodiak group of islands lay immediately adjacent to, and northwest of, the focal region from which the elastic seismic energy was radiated. The duration of strong ground motion in the area was estimated at 2½ minutes. Locally, the tremors were preceded by sounds audible to the human ear and were reportedly accompanied in several places by visible ground waves. Intensity and felt duration of the shocks during the main earthquake and aftershock sequence varied markedly within the area and were strongly influenced by the local geologic environment. Estimated Mercalli intensities in most areas underlain by unconsolidated Quaternary deposits ranged from VIII to as high as IX. In contrast, intensities in areas of upper Tertiary rock ranged from VII to VIII, and in areas of relatively well indurated lower Tertiary and Mesozoic rocks, from VI to VII. Local subsidence of as much as 10 feet was widespread in noncohesive granular deposits through compaction, flow, and sliding that resulted from vibratory loading during the earthquake. This phenomenon, which was largely restricted to saturated beach and alluvial deposits or artificial fill, was locally accompanied by extensive cracking of the ground and attendant ejection of water and water-sediment mixtures. Numerous landslides, including a wide variety of rockfalls, rockslides, and flows along steep slopes, were triggered by the long-duration horizontal and vertical accelerations during the earthquake. The landslides are most numerous in a narrow belt along the southeast coast of Kodiak Island and the nearby offshore islands. Their abundance appears to be related to an area underlain predominantly by Tertiary rocks. Temporary and permanent changes of level occurred after the earthquake in some wells, lakes, and streams throughout the area; ice was cracked, and the salinity of a few wells increased. Permanent change of water level at some localities appears to be related to readjustments of fracture porosity by earthquake-induced movements of bedrock blocks. Increased salinity of wells in coastal areas resulted from encroachment of seawater into aquifiers after subsidence during the earthquake, and to flooding of watersheds by seismic sea waves. Vertical displacements, both downward and upward, occurred throughout the area as a result of crustal warping along a northeast-trending axis. Most of Kodiak and all of Afognak, Shuyak, and adjacent islands are within a regional zone of subsidence whose trough plunges gently northeastward and approximately coincides with the mountainous backbone of Kodiak Island. Subsidence in excess of 6 feet occurred throughout the northern part of the zone-a maximum subsidence of 6½ feet having occurred on Marmot and, eastern Afognak Islands. Southeast of the axis of tectonic tilting, uplift of at least 2lh feet occurred in a narrow zone that includes most of the southeasterly capes of Kodiak Island, the southeastern half of Sitkalidak Island, and Sitkinak Island. The uplift is inferred to extend offshore over much or all of the continental shelf adjacent to the Kodiak group of islands. Within the affected area, tectonic subsidence, which was locally augmented by surficial subsidence of unconsolidated. deposits, caused widespread inundation of shorelines and attendant damage to intertidal organisms, nearshore terrestrial vegetation, and salmon-spawning areas. The most devastating effect of the earthquake on Kodiak Island and nearby islands resulted from seismic sea waves that probably originated along a linear zone of differential uplift in the Gulf of Alaska. A train of at least seven seismic sea waves, having initial periods of 50–55 minutes, struck along all the southeast coast of the island group from 38 to 63 minutes after the earthquake. The southeast shores were repeatedly washed by destructive waves having runup heights along exposed coasts of perhaps as much as 40 feet above existing tide level, and of 8–20 feet along protected shores. Runup heights of the waves were much less on the northwest and southwest sides of the islands, and no wave damage was incurred there. Locally, high-velocity currents that accompanied the waves caused intense erosion and redistribution of unconsolidated natural and artificial shore deposits and of shallow sea-floor deposits. The Alaska earthquake was the greatest natural catastrophe to befall the Kodiak Island area in historic time. The combination of seismic shock and the earthquake-related tectonic deformation and seismic sea waves took 18 lives, destroyed property worth about $45 million, and resulted in estimated losses of income to the fishing industry of an additional $5 million. Most of the damage and all of the loss of life were directly attributable to the seismic sea waves that crippled the city of Kodiak, wiped out the village of Kaguyak, and destroyed most of the village of Old Harbor and parts of the villages of Afognak and Uzinki. Bridges and segments of the highways in the vicinity of the city of Kodiak were washed out, and parts of the Kodiak Naval Station were inundated and damaged. Especially serious to all the damaged communities was the loss of fishing boats, seafood processing plants, and other waterfront installations, which had been the mainstay of the economy. Additional heavy losses resulted from the combined regional tectonic and local surficial subsidence that occurred during the earthquake. Widespread shoreline flooding by high tides necessitated raising, protecting, or removing many installations otherwise undamaged by the earthquake or waves. Structural damage attributable to seismic shock during the earthquake was relatively light and was restricted to areas underlain by saturated unconsolidated deposits. The chief structural failure in the area as a result of shaking was the collapse of part of a cannery built on saturated beach deposits that were partially liquefied during the earthquake. Minor structural damage resulted from differential settlement and cracking of the ground on natural granular deposits and artificial fills. The overwhelming majority of structures are constructed on indurated bedrock; none of these sustained damage other than small losses resulting from shifting about and breakage of their contents.

Alaska↗

Petrographic and chemical reconnaissance study of some granitic and gneissic rocks near the San Andreas fault from Bodega Head to Cajon Pass, California

This petrographic and chemical study is based on reconnaissance sampling of granitic and related gneissic rock in the California Coast and Transverse Ranges. In the Coast Ranges, granitic rocks are restricted to an elongate belt, the Salinian block, between the San Andreas and Sur-Nacimiento fault zones. These rocks have a considerable compositional range, but are dominantly quartz monzonite and granodiorite. Moist of the Salinian block seems to be a structurally coherent basement block of chemically related granitic rocks. However, on both the east and the west sides of the block, gneiss crops out in abundance; these rocks may be structurally separate from the main part of the Salinian block. In the Transverse Ranges, the granitic and related rocks are dominantly of granodiorite composition, and in many areas granitic and gneissic rocks are intimately intermixed. Chemically the rocks of the California Coast and Transverse Ranges are somewhat intermediate in character between those of the east-central part of the Sierra Nevada batholith and those of the western part of the Sierra Nevada batholith and the southern California batholith. Probably the closest similarity is to the east-central Sierra Nevada rocks, but the rocks of the Coast and Transverse Ranges are somewhat higher in Al 2 O 3 and lower in K 2 O than Sierran rocks of the comparable SiO 2 content. Granitic basement rocks of the Salinian block are now anomalously sandwiched between Franciscan terranes. The petrographic and chemical data are compatible with the concept that the Salinian rocks were originally part of the great batholithic belt along the west coast, which is exemplified by the Sierra Nevada hatholith. It also seems most likely that the Salinian block was transported from somewhere south of the Sierra Nevada batholith by large-scale right-lateral movement along the San Andreas fault zone.

California↗

Lidar-revised geologic map of the Uncas 7.5' quadrangle, Clallam and Jefferson Counties, Washington

In 2000 and 2001, the Puget Sound Lidar Consortium obtained 1 pulse/m 2 lidar data for about 65 percent of the Uncas 7.5' quadrangle. For a brief description of LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) and this data acquisition program, see Haugerud and others (2003). This map combines geologic interpretation (mostly by Haugerud and Tabor) of the 6-ft (2-m) lidar-derived digital elevation model (DEM) with the geology depicted on the Preliminary Geologic Map of the Uncas 7.5' Quadrangle, Clallam and Jefferson Counties, Washington, by Peter J. Haeussler and others (1999). The Uncas quadrangle in the northeastern Olympic Peninsula covers the transition from the accreted terranes of the Olympic Mountains on the west to the Tertiary and Quaternary basin fills of the Puget Lowland to the east. Elevations in the map area range from sea level at Port Discovery to 4,116 ft (1,255 m) on the flank of the Olympic Mountains to the southwest. Previous geologic mapping within and marginal to the Uncas quadrangle includes reports by Cady and others (1972), Brown and others (1960), Tabor and Cady (1978a), Yount and Gower (1991), and Yount and others (1993). Paleontologic and stratigraphic investigations by University of Washington graduate students (Allison, 1959; Thoms, 1959; Sherman, 1960; Hamlin, 1962; Spencer, 1984) also encompass parts of the Uncas quadrangle. Haeussler and Wells mapped in February 1998, following preliminary mapping by Yount and Gower in 1976 and 1979. The description of surficial map units follows Yount and others (1993) and Booth and Waldron (2004). Bedrock map units are modified from Yount and Gower (1991) and Spencer (1984). We used the geologic time scale of Gradstein and others (2005). The Uncas quadrangle lies in the forearc of the Cascadia subduction zone, about 6.25 mi (10 km) east of the Cascadia accretionary complex exposed in the core of the Olympic Mountains (Tabor and Cady, 1978b). Underthrusting of the accretionary complex beneath the forearc uplifted and tilted eastward the Coast Range basalt basement and overlying marginal basin strata, which comprise most of the rocks of the Uncas quadrangle. The Eocene submarine and subaerial tholeiitic basalt of the Crescent Formation on the Olympic Peninsula is thought to be the exposed mafic basement of the Coast Range, which was considered by Snavely and others (1968) to be an oceanic terrane accreted to the margin in Eocene time. In this interpretation, the Coast Range basalt terrane may have originated as an oceanic plateau or by oblique marginal rifting, but its subsequent emplacement history was complex (Wells and others, 1984). Babcock and others (1992) and Haeussler and others (2003) favor the interpretation that the basalts were the product of an oceanic spreading center interacting with the continental margin. Regardless of their origin, onlapping strata in southern Oregon indicate that the Coast Range basalts were attached to North America by 50 Ma; but on southern Vancouver Island, where the terrane-bounding Leech River Fault is exposed, Brandon and Vance (1992) concluded that suturing to North America occurred in the broad interval between 42 and 24 Ma. After emplacement of the Coast Range basalt terrane, the Cascadia accretionary wedge developed by frontal accretion and underplating (Tabor and Cady, 1978b; Clowes and others, 1987). Domal uplift of the part of the accretionary complex beneath the Olympic Mountains occurred after ~18 Ma (Brandon and others, 1998). Continental and alpine glaciation during Quaternary time reshaped the uplifted rocks of the Olympic Mountains.

Washington↗

Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette basin, Oregon

The Willamette Basin encompasses a drainage of 12,000 square miles and is home to approximately 70 percent of Oregon's population. Agriculture and population are concentrated in the lowland, a broad, relatively flat area between the Coast and Cascade Ranges. Annual rainfall is high, with about 80 percent of precipitation falling from October through March and less than 5 percent falling in July and August, the peak growing season. Population growth and an increase in cultivation of crops needing irrigation have produced a growing seasonal demand for water. Because many streams are administratively closed to new appropriations in summer, ground water is the most likely source for meeting future water demand. This report describes the current understanding of the regional ground-water flow system, and addresses the effects of ground-water development. This study defines seven regional hydrogeologic units in the Willamette Basin. The highly permeable High Cascade unit consists of young volcanic material found at the surface along the crest of the Cascade Range. Four sedimentary hydrogeologic units fill the lowland between the Cascade and Coast Ranges. Young, highly permeable coarse-grained sediments of the upper sedimentary unit have a limited extent in the floodplains of the major streams and in part of the Portland Basin. Extending over much of the lowland where the upper sedimentary unit does not occur, silts and clays of the Willamette silt unit act as a confining unit. The middle sedimentary unit, consisting of permeable coarse-grained material, occurs beneath the Willamette silt and upper sedimentary units and at the surface as terraces in the lowland. Beneath these units is the lower sedimentary unit, which consists of predominantly fine-grained sediments. In the northern part of the basin, lavas of the Columbia River basalt unit occur at the surface in uplands and beneath the basin-fill sedimentary units. The Columbia River basalt unit contains multiple productive water-bearing zones. A basement confining unit of older marine and volcanic rocks of low permeability underlies the basin and occurs at land surface in the Coast Range and western part of the Cascade Range. Most recharge in the basin is from infiltration of precipitation, and the spatial distribution of recharge mimics the distribution of precipitation, which increases with elevation. Basinwide annual mean recharge is estimated to be 22 inches. Rain and snowmelt easily recharge into the permeable High Cascade unit and discharge within the High Cascade area. Most recharge in the Coast Range and western part of the Cascade Range follows short flowpaths through the upper part of the low permeability material and discharges to streams within the mountains. Consequently, recharge in the Coast and Ranges is not available as lateral ground-water flow into the lowland, where most ground-water use occurs. Within the lowland, annual mean recharge is 16 inches and most recharge occurs from November to April, when rainfall is large and evapotranspiration is small. From May to October recharge is negligible because precipitation is small and evapotranspiration is large. Discharge of ground water is mainly to streams. Ground-water discharge is a relatively large component of flow in streams that drain the High Cascade unit and parts of the Portland Basin where permeable units are at the surface. In streams that do not head in the High Cascade area, streamflow is generally dominated by runoff of precipitation. Ground-water in the permeable units in the lowland discharges to the major streams where there is a good hydraulic connection between aquifers and streams. Ground-water discharge to smaller streams, which flow on the less permeable Willamette silt unit, is small and mostly from the Willamette silt unit. Most ground-water withdrawals occur within the lowland. Irrigation is the largest use of ground water, accounting for 240,000 acre feet of withdrawals, or 81 p

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ), 2016

Trichechus manatus (West Indian manatee), especially T. m. latirostris , the Florida subspecies, has been the focus of conservation efforts and extensive research since its listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. To determine the status of, and severity of threats to, the Florida manatee, a comprehensive revision and update of the manatee Core Biological Model was completed and used to perform a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee. The probability of the Florida manatee population falling below 500 adults on either the Gulf or East coast within the next 100 years was estimated to be 0.42 percent. This risk of quasi-extinction is low because the estimated adult survival rates are high, the current population size is greater than 2,500 on each coast, and the estimated carrying capacity for manatees is much larger than the current abundance estimates in all four regions of Florida. Three threats contribute in roughly equal measures to the risk of quasi-extinction: watercraft-related mortality, red-tide mortality, and loss of warm-water habitat. Only an increase in watercraft-related mortality has the potential to substantially increase the risk of quasi-extinction at the statewide or coastal level. Expected losses of warm-water habitat are likely to cause a major change in the distribution of the population from the regions where manatees rely heavily on power plant effluents for warmth in winter (Southwest and Atlantic regions) to the regions where manatees primarily use natural springs in winter (Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions). The chances are nearly 50 percent that manatee populations in the Southwest and Atlantic regions will decrease from their 2011 levels by at least 30 percent over the next century. A large number of scenarios were examined to explore the possible effects of potential emerging threats, and in most of them, the risk of quasi-extinction at the coastal scale within 100 years did not rise above 1 percent. The four exceptions are scenarios in which the rate of watercraft-related mortality increases, carrying capacity is only a fraction of the current estimates, a new chronic source of mortality emerges, or multiple threats emerge in concert. Even in these scenarios, however, the risk of falling below 500 adults on either the East coast or the Gulf coast within 100 years from 2011 is less than 10 percent. High adult survival provides the population with strong resilience to a variety of current and future threats. On the basis of these analyses, we conclude that if these threats continue to be managed effectively, manatees are likely to persist on both coasts of Florida and remain an integral part of the coastal Florida ecosystem through the 21st century. If vigilance in management is reduced, however, the scenarios in which manatees could face risk of decline become more likely.

Florida↗

Effects of Aquifer Development and Changes in Irrigation Practices on Ground-Water Availability in the Santa Isabel Area, Puerto Rico

The alluvial aquifer in the area of Santa Isabel is located within the South Coastal Plain aquifer of Puerto Rico. Variations in precipitation, changes in irrigation practices, and increasing public-supply water demand have been the primary factors controlling water-level fluctuations within the aquifer. Until the late 1970s, much of the land in the study area was irrigated using inefficient furrow flooding methods that required large volumes of both surface and ground water. A gradual shift in irrigation practices from furrow systems to more efficient micro-drip irrigation systems occurred between the late 1970s and the late 1980s. Irrigation return flow from the furrow-irrigation systems was a major component of recharge to the aquifer. By the early 1990s, furrow-type systems had been replaced by the micro-drip irrigation systems. Water levels declined about 20 feet in the aquifer from 1985 until present (February 2003). The main effect of the changes in agricultural practices is the reduction in recharge to the aquifer and total irrigation withdrawals. Increases in ground-water withdrawals for public supply offset the reduction in ground-water withdrawals for irrigation such that the total estimated pumping rate in 2003 was only 8 percent less than in 1987. Micro-drip irrigation resulted in the loss of irrigation return flow to the aquifer. These changes resulted in lowering the water table below sea level over most of the Santa Isabel area. By 2002, lowering of the water table reversed the natural discharge along the coast and resulted in the inland movement of seawater, which may result in increased salinity of the aquifer, as had occurred in other parts of the South Coastal Plain. Management alternatives for the South Coastal Plain aquifer in the vicinity of Santa Isabel include limiting groundwater withdrawals or implementing artificial recharge measures. Another alternative for the prevention of saltwater intrusion is to inject freshwater or treated sewage effluent into wells along the coast. A digital ground-water flow model was developed to provide information for water managers to evaluate some of these alternatives. After calibration of the ground-water model to historical data, four simulations of ground-water management strategies were performed: ground-water conservation, surface infiltration over existing agricultural fields, or infiltration along streams and canals, or injection wells along the coast. Simulations of four alternative water management strategies indicate that current condition of water levels below sea level near the coast can be reversed to raise water levels above sea level by either: (1) about a 27 percent reduction in 2003 ground-water withdrawal rates; (2) application of about 1,700 million gallons per year of artificial recharge over more than half of the current agricultural areas; (3) injection of about 3 million gallons per day (1,095 million gallons per year) of freshwater or treated wastewater in wells distributed along the coast; (4) injection of about 3.5 million gallons per day (1,280 million gallons per year) of freshwater or treated wastewater in wells distributed along canals and streams.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Hydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Aguadilla to Rio Camuy area, Puerto Rico

The aquifers of the Aguadilla to Rio Camuy area, in the northwestern part of Puerto Rico, are the least developed of those on the north coast, and relatively little information is available concerning the ground-water system. The present study, which was part of a comprehensive appraisal of the ground-water resources of the North Coast Province, attempts to interpret the hydrology of the area within the constraints of available data. The study area consists of an uplifted rolling plain that is 200 to 400 feet above sea level and a heavily forested, karst upland. The only major streams in the area are the Rfo Camuy and the Rio Guajataca. Most water used in the area is obtained from Lago de Guajataca, just south of the study area, and ground-water use is minimal (less than 5 million gallons per day). Sedimentary rocks of Tertiary age, mainly limestone and calcareous clays, comprise the aquifers of the Aguadilla to Rio Camuy area. The rocks generally dip from 4 to 7 degrees to the north, and the total sedimentary rock sequence may be as much as 6,000 feet thick near the Atlantic coast. Baseflows for the Rio Camuy are 58 cubic feet per second near Bayaney and 72 cubic feet per second near Hatillo. The ground-water discharge to the Rio Camuy between these stations is estimated to be 15 cubic feet per second, or 2.6 cubic feet per second per linear mile. The flow of the Rio Guajataca is regulated by the Guajataca Dam at Lago de Guajataca. Ground-water discharge to the Rio Guajataca between the dam and the coast is estimated to be about 17 cubic feet per.second, based on the average ground-water discharge per linear mile estimated for the Rio Camuy. Both water-table and artesian aquifers are present in the Aguadilla to Rio Camuy area; how-ever, most ground water occurs within the watertable aquifer, which was the primary focus of this study. The top of the confining unit, below the water-table aquifer, generally is within the unnamed upper member of the Cibao Formation; however, it is within the Los Puertos Formation in the eastern part of the study area. The water-table aquifer primarily is composed of rocks of the Aymam6n Limestone and the Los Puertos Formation. The estimated saturated thickness of the water-table aquifer ranges from zero at the southern limit of the aquifer to more than 600 feet south of Isabela. Hydraulic conductivity of the Aymam6n Limestone, based on specific-capacity test data for seven wells, ranges from about 1 to about 25 feet per day and averages 7.5 feet per day. Hydraulic conductivity of the Los Puertos Formation, based on specific-capacity test data for four wells, generally was less than 7 feet. per day. The average hydraulic-conductivity value for both the Aymam6n Limestone and the Los Puertos Formation, based on specific-capacity test data, is estimated to be about 6.0 feet per day. These hydraulic-conductivity values are much less than average values for the water-table aquifer reported for other parts of the North Coast Province. Transmissivity values, based on the average hydraulic-conductivity value for the aquifer derived from specific-capacity tests, range from zero to about 4,000 feet squared per day; however, these values were adjusted upward during model calibration. Ground water generally moves from the highlands in the south toward the sea to the north and west, and locally, to streams. A major groundwater divide extends from the southeastern corner of the study area to the northwest, and separates flow north and east into the study area from flow to the southwest toward the Rio Culebrinas. Nearly all recharge to the aquifer is from infiltration of rainfall into the karst uplands. Discharge from the aquifer primarily occurs as leakage to streams and to the sea, and to a lesser degree as flow to wells. A two-layer, three-dimensional, steady-state, numerical model was constructed to simulateground-water flow in the water-table aquifer between Aguadilla and the R/o Camuy area. A basic a

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

A holistic modelling approach to project the evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines over the 21st century

Approximately one quarter of the World’s sandy beaches, most of which are interrupted by tidal inlets, are eroding. Understanding the long-term (50-100 year) evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts in a changing climate is therefore of great importance for coastal zone planners and managers. This study therefore focuses on the development and piloting of an innovative model that can simulate the climate-change driven evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts at 50-100 year time scales, while taking into account the contributions from catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic manner. In this new model, the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts is determined by: (1) computing the variation of total sediment volume exchange between the inlet-estuary system and its adjacent coast, and (2) distributing the computed sediment volume along the inlet-interrupted coast as a spatially and temporally varying quantity. The exchange volume, as computed here, consists of three major components: variation in fluvial sediment supply; basin (or estuarine) infilling due to the sea-level rise-induced increase in accommodation space; and estuarine sediment volume change due to variations in river discharge. To pilot the model, it is here applied to three different catchment-estuary-coastal systems: the Alsea estuary (Oregon, USA), Dyfi estuary (Wales, UK), and Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka). Results indicate that all three systems will experience sediment deficits by 2100 (i.e. sediment importing estuaries). However, processes and system characteristics governing the total sediment exchange volume, and thus coastline change, vary markedly among the systems due to differences in geomorphic settings and projected climatic conditions. These results underline the importance of accounting for the different governing processes when assessing the future evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

Integrating high-resolution coastal acidification monitoring data across seven United States estuaries

Beginning in 2015, the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) National Estuary Program (NEP) started a collaboration with partners in seven estuaries along the East Coast (Barnegat Bay; Casco Bay), West Coast (Santa Monica Bay; San Francisco Bay; Tillamook Bay), and the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Coast (Tampa Bay; Mission-Aransas Estuary) of the United States to expand the use of autonomous monitoring of partial pressure of carbon dioxide ( p CO 2 ) and pH. Analysis of high-frequency (hourly to sub-hourly) coastal acidification data including p CO 2 , pH, temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen (DO) indicate that the sensors effectively captured key parameter measurements under challenging environmental conditions, allowing for an initial characterization of daily to seasonal trends in carbonate chemistry across a range of estuarine settings. Multi-year monitoring showed that across all water bodies temperature and p CO 2 covaried, suggesting that p CO 2 variability was governed, in part, by seasonal temperature changes with average p CO 2 being lower in cooler, winter months and higher in warmer, summer months. Furthermore, the timing of seasonal shifts towards increasing (or decreasing) p CO 2 varied by location and appears to be related to regional climate conditions. Specifically, p CO 2 increases began earlier in the year in warmer water, lower latitude water bodies in the GOM (Tampa Bay; Mission-Aransas Estuary) as compared with cooler water, higher latitude water bodies in the northeast (Barnegat Bay; Casco Bay), and upwelling-influenced West Coast water bodies (Tillamook Bay; Santa Monica Bay; San Francisco Bay). Results suggest that both thermal and non-thermal influences are important drivers of p CO 2 in Tampa Bay and Mission-Aransas Estuary. Conversely, non-thermal processes, most notably the biogeochemical structure of coastal upwelling, appear to be largely responsible for the observed p CO 2 values in West Coast water bodies. The co-occurrence of high salinity, high p CO 2 , low DO, and low temperature water in Santa Monica Bay and San Francisco Bay characterize the coastal upwelling paradigm that is also evident in Tillamook Bay when upwelling dominates freshwater runoff and local processes. These data demonstrate that high-quality carbonate chemistry observations can be recorded from estuarine environments using autonomous sensors originally designed for open-ocean settings.

California, Florida, Maine, New Jersey, Oregon, Te↗

The impact of invasive plants on tidal-marsh vertebrate species: common reed (Phragmites australis) and smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) as case studies

Large areas of tidal marsh in the contiguous US and the Maritime Provinces of Canada are threatened by invasive plant species. Our understanding of the impact these invasions have on tidal-marsh vertebrates is sparse. In this paper, we focus on two successful invasive plant taxa that have spread outside their native range --common reed (Phragmites australis) and smooth cordgrass (Spartina a/terniflora). A cryptic haplotype of common reed has expanded its range in Atlantic Coast tidal marshes and smooth cordgrass, a native dominant plant of Atlantic Coast low-marsh habitat, has expanded its range and invaded intertidal-marsh habitats of the Pacific Coast. The invasions of common reed in Atlantic Coast tidal marshes and smooth cordgrass in Pacific Coast tidal marshes appear to have similar impacts. The structure and composition of these habitats has been altered and invasion and dominance by these two taxa can lead to profound changes in geomorphological processes, altering the vertical relief and potentially affecting invertebrate communities and the entire trophic structure of these systems. Few studies have documented impacts of invasive plant taxa on tidal-marsh vertebrate species in North America. However, habitat specialists that are already considered threatened or endangered are most likely to be affected. Extensive experimental studies are needed to examine the direct impact of invasive plant species on native vertebrate species. Careful monitoring of sites during the initial stages of plant invasion and tracking ecosystem changes through time are essential. Since tidal marshes are the foci for invasion by numerous species, we also need to understand the indirect impacts of invasion of these habitats on the vertebrate community. We also suggest the initiation of studies to determine if vertebrate species can compensate behaviorally for alterations in their habitat caused by invasive plant species, as well as the potential for adaptation via rapid evolution. Finally, we urge natural-resource managers to consider the impact various invasive plant control strategies will have on native vertebrate communities.

Book chapter↗

Estimation of nutrient sources and transport for New Zealand using the hybrid mechanistic-statistical model SPARROW

The hybrid mechanistic-statistical catchment model SPARROW was applied to predict the mean annual load of nitrogen and phosphorus in streams throughout New Zealand (270,000 km2). The loads from land areas, point sources, and erosion are routed through the drainage network (576,300 reaches) with first-order stream decay and attenuation in lakes and reservoirs. Model parameters were determined by calibration against loads measured in the national water quality network (77 sites). For nitrogen, the model predicted the measured loads well (R2 of 0.956 and RMSE of 0.33 in natural-log space), while for phosphorus the model fit was not as good (R2 of 0.900 and RMSE of 0.58). The predictions of exported yields for streams with catchments > 20 km2 are broadly comparable with previous compilations of yields for various land-use classes for nitrogen, but are larger than the previous measurements for phosphorus. The calibrated stream attenuation and lake/reservoir rates were broadly consistent with previous measurements. The predicted load of total nitrogen (TN) delivered to the coast was 167,700 t yr-1, which is 45% of the loads entering the streams. For total phosphorus (TP) the predicted load to the coast was 63,100 t yr-1, 44% of the load entering the streams. Reservoir/lake attenuation makes a relatively small contribution to the overall attenuation compared with in-stream attenuation (3.5% for nitrogen and 8.5% for phosphorus). The largest contribution of total nitrogen is from pastoral land uses, together accounting for 70% of the total nitrogen load to the coast. Land used for dairying makes a disproportionately large contribution to the load of total nitrogen in relation to the area of land (37% of the load versus 6.8% of the land). For total phosphorus, the highest contribution of the load to the coast is from erosion (53.2%). Point sources contribute only a small proportion of the load to the coast (3.2% for nitrogen, 1.8% for total phosphorus). The monitoring network does not include streams with catchments smaller than 10 km2, so model predictions for streams smaller than 10 km2 should be used with caution. ?? New Zealand Hydrological Society (2005).

Journal of Hydrology New Zealand↗

Surface water discharge and salinity monitoring of coastal estuaries in Everglades National Park, USA, in support of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan

Discharge and salinity were measured along the southwest and the southeast coast of Florida in Everglades National Park (ENP) within several rivers and creeks from 1996 through 2008. Data were collected using hydro-acoustic instruments and continuous water-quality monitors at fixed monitoring stations. Water flowed through ENP within two distinct drainage basins; specifically, Shark Slough and Taylor Slough. Discharge to the southwest coast through Shark Slough was substantially larger than discharge to the southeast coast through Taylor Slough. Correlation analysis between coastal flows and regulated flows at water-management structures upstream from ENP suggests rainfall has a larger impact on discharge through Shark Slough than releases from the S-12 water management structures. In contrast, flow releases from water management structures upstream from Taylor Slough appear to be more closely related to discharge along the southeast coast. Salinity varied within a wide range (0 to 50 parts per thousand) along both coastlines. Periods of hypersalinity were greater along the southeast coast due to shallow compartmentalized basins within Florida Bay, which restrict circulation.

Florida↗

Quantifying hurricane-induced coastal changes using topographic lidar

USGS and NASA are investigating the impacts of hurricanes on the United States East and Gulf of Mexico coasts with the ultimate objective of improving predictive capabilities. The cornerstone of our effort is to use topographic lidar to acquire pre- and post-storm topography to quantify changes to beaches and dunes. With its rapidity of acquisition and very high density, lidar is revolutionizing the. quantification of storm-induced coastal change. Lidar surveys have been acquired for the East and Gulf coasts to serve as pre-storm baselines. Within a few days of a hurricane landfall anywhere within the study area, the impacted area will be resurveyed to detect changes. For example, during 1999, Hurricane Dennis impacted the northern North Carolina coast. Along a 70-km length of coast between Cape Hatteras and Oregon Inlet, there was large variability in the types of impacts including overwash, dune erosion, dune stability, and even accretion at the base of dunes. These types of impacts were arranged in coherent patterns that repeated along the coast over scales of tens of kilometers. Preliminary results suggest the variability is related to the influence of offshore shoals that induce longshore gradients in wave energy by wave refraction.

Conference Paper↗

Facilitating adaptive management in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed through the use of online decision support tools

The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is attempting to more strategically implement management actions to improve the health of the Nation’s largest estuary. In 2007 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) CBP office began a joint effort to develop a suite of Internetaccessible decision-support tools and to help meet the needs of CBP partners to improve water quality and habitat conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watersheds. An adaptive management framework is being used to provide a structured decision process for information and individual tools needed to implement and assess practices to improve the condition of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The Chesapeake Online Adaptive Support Toolkit (COAST) is a collection of web-based analytical tools and information, organized in an adaptive management framework, intended to aid decisionmakers in protecting and restoring the integrity of the Bay ecosystem. The initial version of COAST is focused on water quality issues. During early and mid- 2008, initial ideas for COAST were shared and discussed with various CBP partners and other potential user groups. At these meetings, test cases were selected to help improve understanding of the types of information and analytical functionality that would be most useful for specific partners’ needs. These discussions added considerable knowledge about the nature of decisionmaking for Federal, State, local and nongovernmental partners. Version 1.0 of COAST, released in early winter of 2008, will be further reviewed to determine improvements needed to address implementation and assessment of water quality practices. Future versions of COAST may address other aspects of ecosystem restoration, including restoration of habitat and living resources and maintaining watershed health.

Conference Paper↗

Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate

Predictive climate distributions of U.S. landfalling hurricanes are estimated from observational records over the period 1851–2000. The approach is Bayesian, combining the reliable records of hurricane activity during the twentieth century with the less precise accounts of activity during the nineteenth century to produce a best estimate of the posterior distribution on the annual rates. The methodology provides a predictive distribution of future activity that serves as a climatological benchmark. Results are presented for the entire coast as well as for the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the East Coast. Statistics on the observed annual counts of U.S. hurricanes, both for the entire coast and by region, are similar within each of the three consecutive 50-yr periods beginning in 1851. However, evidence indicates that the records during the nineteenth century are less precise. Bayesian theory provides a rational approach for defining hurricane climate that uses all available information and that makes no assumption about whether the 150-yr record of hurricanes has been adequately or uniformly monitored. The analysis shows that the number of major hurricanes expected to reach the U.S. coast over the next 30 yr is 18 and the number of hurricanes expected to hit Florida is 20.

Journal of Climate↗

Sequoia and Sequoiadendron: Two paleoendemic megatrees with markedly different adaptive responses to recent high-severity fires

Premise Coast redwood ( Sequoia sempervirens ) and giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) are two iconic paleoendemic species with limited distributions, well known for their spectacular size. Recently, they have been exposed to high-severity crown fires, with starkly contrasting responses. Methods We used all available published literature and field observations to understand the responses to fire in an evolutionary context. Results Coast redwoods, found in California's coastal rainforests, were highly resilient to high-severity fires, with most trees surviving due to their ability to resprout from the base and trunk, though seedling regeneration was largely lacking. In contrast, giant sequoias, native to the Sierra Nevada, do not resprout, leading to significant tree mortality after very high-severity fires; they released seeds only in patches where some trees survived moderately high-severity fires. Conclusions These high-severity fires were novel events for giant sequoias, but not for coast redwoods. Fire suppression has disrupted the natural fire regime in the giant sequoia ecosystem by preventing frequent lightning-caused surface fires, resulting in high-severity fires that killed a substantial number of these giants. In coast redwood forests, infrequent but high-severity crown fires were the norm before burning by Native Americans. Frequent, low-severity burning by Native Americans over the past few hundred years was localized and 20 th -century fire suppression has returned the natural fire regime to these forests. The recent crown fires do not represent a threat to redwood conservation; however, other management goals may require emulating Native American burning practices and in some cases may be best termed cultural restoration.

American Journal of Botany↗

Concentrations and annual fluxes of sediment-associated chemical constituents from conterminous US coastal rivers using bed sediment data

Coastal rivers represent a significant pathway for the delivery of natural and anthropogenic sediment-associated chemical constituents to the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coasts of the conterminous USA. This study entails an accounting segment using published average annual suspended sediment fluxes with published sediment-associated chemical constituent concentrations for (1) baseline, (2) land-use distributions, (3) population density, and (4) worldwide means to estimate concentrations/annual fluxes for trace/major elements and total phosphorus, total organic and inorganic carbon, total nitrogen, and sulphur, for 131 coastal river basins. In addition, it entails a sampling and subsequent chemical analysis segment that provides a level of ‘ground truth’ for the calculated values, as well as generating baselines for sediment-associated concentrations/fluxes against which future changes can be evaluated. Currently, between 260 and 270 Mt of suspended sediment are discharged annually from the conterminous USA; about 69% is discharged from Gulf rivers (n = 36), about 24% from Pacific rivers (n = 42), and about 7% from Atlantic rivers (n = 54). Elevated sediment-associated chemical concentrations relative to baseline levels occur in the reverse order of sediment discharges:Atlantic rivers (49%)>Pacific rivers (40%)>Gulf rivers (23%). Elevated trace element concentrations (e.g. Cu, Hg, Pb, Zn) frequently occur in association with present/former industrial areas and/or urban centres, particularly along the northeast Atlantic coast. Elevated carbon and nutrient concentrations occur along both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts but are dominated by rivers in the urban northeast and by southeastern and Gulf coast (Florida) ‘blackwater’ streams. Elevated Ca, Mg, K, and Na distributions tend to reflect local petrology, whereas elevated Ti, S, Fe, and Al concentrations are ubiquitous, possibly because they have substantial natural as well as anthropogenic sources. Almost all the elevated sediment-associated chemical concentrations found in conterminous US coastal rivers are lower than worldwide averages.

Hydrological Processes↗

Quantifying changes and influences on mottled duck density in Texas

Understanding the relative influence of environmental and intrinsic effects on populations is important for managing and conserving harvested species, especially those species inhabiting changing environments. Additionally, climate change can increase the uncertainty associated with management of species in these changing environments, making understanding factors affecting their populations even more important. Coastal ecosystems are particularly threatened by climate change; the combined effects of increasing severe weather events, sea level rise, and drought will likely have non-linear effects on coastal marsh wildlife species and their associated habitats. A species of conservation concern that persists in these coastal areas is the mottled duck ( Anas fulvigula ). Mottled ducks in the western Gulf Coast are approximately 50% below target abundance numbers established by the Gulf Coast Joint Venture for Texas and Louisiana, USA. Although evidence for declines in mottled duck abundance is apparent, specific causes of the decrease remain unknown. Our goals were to determine where the largest declines in mottled duck population were occurring along the system of Texas Gulf Coast National Wildlife Refuges and quantify the relative contribution of environmental and intrinsic effects on changes to relative population density. We modeled aerial survey data of mottled duck density along the Texas Gulf Coast from 1986–2015 to quantify effects of extreme weather events on an index to mottled duck density using the United States Climate Extremes Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Our results indicate that decreases in abundance are best described by an increase in days with extreme 1-day precipitation from June to November (hurricane season) and an increase in drought severity. Better understanding those portions of the life cycle affected by environmental conditions, and how to manage mottled duck habitat in conjunction with these events will likely be key to persistence of the species under future environmental conditions.

Texas↗