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At least 1,333 records · Page 74Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Detectability of thermal signatures associated with active formation of ‘chaos terrain’ on Europa

A recent study by Schmidt et al. (2011) suggests that Thera Macula, one of the “chaos regions” on Europa, may be actively forming over a large liquid water lens. Such a process could conceivably produce a thermal anomaly detectable by a future Europa orbiter or flyby mission, allowing for a direct verification of this finding. Here, we present a set of models that quantitatively assess the surface and subsurface temperatures associated with an actively resurfacing chaos region using constraints from Thera Macula. The results of this numerical study suggest that the surface temperature over an active chaos region can be as high as ∼200 K. However, low-resolution Galileo Photo-Polarimeter Radiometer (PPR) observations indicate temperatures below 120 K over Thera Macula. This suggests that Thera Macula is not currently active unless an insulating layer of at least a few centimeters in thickness is present, or activity is confined to small regions, reducing the overall intensity of the thermal signature. Alternatively, Thera may have been cooling for at least 10–100 yr and still contain a subsurface lake, which can take ∼300,000 yr to crystallize. According to the present study, a more sensitive instrument capable of detecting anomalies ∼5 K above ambient could detect activity at Thera Macula even if an insulating layer of ∼50 cm is present.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2025

Rapid Holocene deposition in the Mackenzie Trough and Barrow Canyon areas in the western Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Ocean and terrestrial environment have recently been reported to be changing drastically, but it is unclear whether these changes are similar to natural variations in the past or how sudden and large the changes are compared to natural variations. This premise served as motivation to collect sediment cores during the summer of 2022 at four sites on the Canadian continental shelf and Alaskan upper continental slope to reconstruct changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to provide a comprehensive picture of the ocean environment during the preindustrial period before anthropogenic influences. We dated the sediments based on the 137 Cs radioactivity of bulk sediments and the 14 C concentrations of mollusk shells. The 137 Cs radioactivity shows a distinct onset corresponding to 1950 Common Era (CE) and the most prominent peak corresponding to 1963 CE. Multiple peaks appeared above the most prominent one, coinciding with nuclear power plant accidents in 1986 and 2011. Inventories of excess 210 Pb in all cores exceed the estimated supply of excess 210 Pb from atmospheric deposition, likely due to the scavenging supply of excess 210 Pb. By comparing 137 Cs and radiocarbon conventional ages, we estimated the local radiocarbon reservoir age value of each site. Using these local radiocarbon reservoir age and the conventional ages of mollusk shell samples, we established the age-depth models by the Bayesian method. The optimal ΔR values were 598, 511, 65, and –60 years at the MT1, MT2, BC2, and BC2-2 sites, respectively. The cores consist of clayey silts continuously deposited with uniquely high sedimentation rates of 0.17 to 0.74 cm y −1 . Variation in the Ca/Ti ratio indicates ~ 20, ~ 30, 50–60, 100–125, and 300-year cycles, likely attributed to the variation in the Aleutian Low that controls the Bering Strait inflow of Pacific waters influencing our core sites. These sediments will be used for further high-resolution, multi-proxy studies with forthcoming results.

western Arctic Ocean↗
USGS2012

Rapid intrusion of magma into wet rock: Groundwater flow due to pore pressure increases

Analytical and numerical solutions are developed to simulate the pressurization, expansion, and flow of groundwater contained within saturated, intact host rocks subject to sudden heating from the planar surface of an igneous intrusion. For most rocks, water diffuses more rapidly than heat, assuring that groundwater is not heated along a constant-volume pressure path and that thermal expansion and pressurization adjacent to the intrusion drives a flow that extends well beyond the heated region. The forcing parameter for pressurization and flow is α Δ T , where α is a thermal expansion coefficient reflecting the overall expansion of water heated through the temperature difference Δ T between the initial ambient and intrusive values. Pore pressure increases due to heating are greatest when the intrusion is emplaced rapidly and where the intrusive contact is impervious to groundwater contained in stiff, impermeable rocks with high thermal diffusivities and porosities. The maximum velocity of water flowing in pores decays with the inverse square root of time and is insensitive to hydraulic properties of the host rocks. Pressures are lessened and flow directions are reversed with the onset of hydrothermal convection. This occurs at times ranging from hours to weeks after onset of intrusion. As magma rises into near-surface rocks, steam can be generated. Solutions indicate that pressure increases and velocities are sensitive to the overall amount of expansion rather than the behavior of the water-steam transition. Both the overall thermal expansion coefficient α and the temperature difference Δ T are greater in shallow (<1 km) environments than in deep (∼5 km) ones. Thus, for rocks with similar transport properties, pressure increases due to heating are greatest in shallow environments. Although solutions can be applied to rocks with a wide variety of properties, pressure increases are calculated for compliant quartz-rich sedimentary rocks with a porosities between 1 and 20% and permeabilities between 1 darcy and 1 μdarcy, subject to temperature increases of 500 and 1000 K at depths ranging from 0.1 to 5 km in a region of hydrostatic pressures and normal geothermal gradient. Such rocks, with porosities greater than 5%, permeabilities less than a 0.1 mdarcy, and drained hydrostatic compressibilities of 10 −4 /MPa, undergo pressure increases greater than 10 MPa (100 bars)for conditions typical of water table depths of 2.5 km and heating to 500 K above ambient. Similar rocks, but with permeabilities less than 1 mdarcy, undergo pressure increases of 10 MPa for conditions typical of 1 km water table depth. Rocks commonly considered to be good aquifers undergo pressure increases of less than 1 MPa, primarily because of their high permeability. Although these estimates neglect the effects of fracturing and brecciation that may accompany such pressure increases, calculations indicate that pressure increases due to heating of cool groundwater can lead to failure of host rocks by a phreatic mechanism.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Urban growth in American cities : glimpses of U.S. urbanization

The Earth's surface is changing rapidly. Changes are local, regional, national, and even global in scope. Some changes have natural causes, such as earthquakes or drought. Other changes, such as urban expansion, agricultural intensification, resource extraction, and water resources development, are examples of human-induced change that have significant impact upon people, the economy, and resources. The consequences that result from these changes are often dramatic and widespread (Buchanan, Acevedo, and Zirbes, 2002) It is the role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide useful and relevant scientific information both to the agencies within the Department of the Interior and to the Nation in general. In an effort to comply with this task, USGS scientists are assessing the status of, and the trends in, the Nation's land surface. This assessment provides useful information for regional and national land use decisionmaking. This knowledge can be used to deal with issues of significance to the Nation, such as quality-of-life, ecology of urban environments, ecosystem health, ecological integrity, water quality and quantity concerns, resource availability, vulnerability to natural hazards, safeguards to human health, air and land quality, and accessibility to scientific information. Results of these assessments can also be analyzed to reveal rates and trends in land use change. Results from urban growth studies provide a firm foundation for continuing research that explores the consequences of human modification of the landscape. The USGS seeks to illustrate and explain the spatial history of urban growth and corresponding land use change. Scientists are studying urban environments from a regional perspective and a time scale of decades to measure the changes that have occurred in order to help understand the impact of anticipated changes in the future. Within this booklet are pairs of images of selected urbanized regions from across the Nation. These image pairs illustrate the transformation that these areas have undergone over two decades. Specifically, they depict changes in the extent of urban land. Each change pair is composed of one image from the 1970s and one image from the 1990s. Accompanying each image pair is a brief historical geography of factors that helped facilitate major changes that have occurred since the founding of the main city and the consequences and challenges of regional urban growth. The goal of this publication is to provide an illustration of urban change that is easily understood by a broad audience. The images used throughout this booklet were generated from land cover data developed by the USGS. The data sources include the Geographic Information Retrieval and Analysis System (GIRAS) for the 1970s images and the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) for the 1990s images. GIRAS digital maps are based on photointerpretations completed in the mid-1970s. The NLCD is a land cover dataset for the conterminous United States based on 1992 Landsat thematic mapper (TM) satellite imagery and supplemental data (fig. 1a and fig. 1b). The USGS distributes both of these land use and land cover digital datasets. The images were developed by using a geographic information system (GIS). The GIRAS and NLCD datasets were used to identify urban land within each region. In the final images all urban areas are shown in red. A shaded-relief map of each region was used to display the topographic context of the red polygon coverage. For all of these images, urban land is defined as areas transformed into a built-up environment for human use. It includes residential areas, commercial and industrial developments, transportation features, and institutions.

Circular↗
USGS2013

Geodatabase compilation of hydrogeologic, remote sensing, and water-budget-component data for the High Plains aquifer, 2011

The High Plains aquifer underlies almost 112 million acres in the central United States. It is one of the largest aquifers in the Nation in terms of annual groundwater withdrawals and provides drinking water for 2.3 million people. The High Plains aquifer has gained national and international attention as a highly stressed groundwater supply primarily because it has been appreciably depleted in some areas. The U.S. Geological Survey has an active program to monitor the changes in groundwater levels for the High Plains aquifer and has documented substantial water-level changes since predevelopment: the High Plains Groundwater Availability Study is part of a series of regional groundwater availability studies conducted to evaluate the availability and sustainability of major aquifers across the Nation. The goals of the regional groundwater studies are to quantify current groundwater resources in an aquifer system, evaluate how these resources have changed over time, and provide tools to better understand a systems response to future demands and environmental stresses. The purpose of this report is to present selected data developed and synthesized for the High Plains aquifer as part of the High Plains Groundwater Availability Study. The High Plains Groundwater Availability Study includes the development of a water-budget-component analysis for the High Plains completed in 2011 and development of a groundwater-flow model for the northern High Plains aquifer. Both of these tasks require large amounts of data about the High Plains aquifer. Data pertaining to the High Plains aquifer were collected, synthesized, and then organized into digital data containers called geodatabases. There are 8 geodatabases, 1 file geodatabase and 7 personal geodatabases, that have been grouped in three categories: hydrogeologic data, remote sensing data, and water-budget-component data. The hydrogeologic data pertaining to the northern High Plains aquifer is included in three separate geodatabases: (1) base data from a groundwater-flow model; (2) hydrogeology and hydraulic properties data; and (3) groundwater-flow model data to be used as calibration targets. The remote sensing data for this study were developed by the U. S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center and include historical and predicted land-use/land-cover data and actual evapotranspiration data by using remotely sensed temperature data. The water-budget-component data contains selected raster data from maps in the &ldquo;Selected Approaches to Estimate Water-Budget Components of the High Plains, 1940 Through 1949 and 2000 Through 2009&rdquo; report completed in 2011 ( http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2011/5183/ ). Federal Geographic Data Committee compliant metadata were created for each spatial and tabular data layer in the geodatabases.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, ↗
USGS2010

Detrital zircon analysis of Mesoproterozoic and neoproterozoic metasedimentary rocks of northcentral idaho: Implications for development of the Belt-Purcell basin

The authors analyzed detrital zircon grains from 10 metasedimentary rock samples of the Priest River complex and three other amphibolite-facies metamorphic sequences in north-central Idaho to test the previous assignment of these rocks to the Mesoproterozoic Belt-Purcell Supergroup. Zircon grains from two samples of the Prichard Formation (lower Belt) and one sample of Cambrian quartzite were also analyzed as controls with known depositional ages. U-Pb zircon analysis by laser ablation - inductively coupled plasma - mass spectrometry reveals that 6 of the 10 samples contain multiple age populations between 1900 and 1400 Ma and a scatter of older ages, similar to results reported from the Belt- Purcell Supergroup to the north and east. Results from the Priest River metamorphic complex confirm previous correlations with the Prichard Formation. Samples from the Golden and Elk City sequences have significant numbers of 1500-1380 Ma grains, which indicates that they do not predate the Belt. Rather, they are probably from a relatively young, southwestern part of the Belt Supergroup (Lemhi subbasin). Non-North American (1610-1490 Ma) grains are rare in these rocks. Three samples of quartzite from the Syringa metamorphic sequence northwest of the Idaho batholith contain zircon grains younger than the Belt Supergroup and support a Neoproterozoic age. A single Cambrian sample has abundant 1780 Ma grains and none younger than ~1750 Ma. These results indicate that the likely protoliths of many high-grade metamorphic rocks in northern Idaho were strata of the Belt-Purcell Supergroup or overlying rocks of the Neoproterozoic Windermere Supergroup and not basement rocks.

Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences↗
USGS2025

Numerical simulation of sound-side barrier-island inundation and breaching during Hurricane Dorian (2019)

Hurricane-induced morphological changes and associated community hazards along sandy, barrier-island coastlines have been studied primarily from the perspective of ocean-side attack by storm-driven ocean surge and large waves. Thus, our understanding of long-term barrier island morphological change focuses on beach erosion, overwash, and inlet formation. In contrast, outwash events with inundation from the sound side, such as one that occurred in Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina, USA during Hurricane Dorian (September 2019), are understudied. Studying such events can improve understanding of barrier island response and stability for a broader range of conditions. Here, we model the hydrodynamics and morphological evolution of a barrier island using a coupled wave-current-sediment transport modeling system. Wind-driven surge in Pamlico Sound led to overtopping from the sound side, which eroded outwash channels and transported sediment seaward into the nearshore. Simulations reproduce the channel features observed with aerial imagery and provide information not available from the remote-sensing observations, including channel depths (>2 m) and the fate of the eroded sand. We found that >99% of the eroded sand was deposited in the nearshore, within 1,000 m of the shoreline in depths <10 m, suggesting that the deposited sediment remains available for littoral transport and beach recovery. Simulations with combinations of coarse or fine sediment and vegetated or unvegetated landcover indicate that channel position did not vary with grain size or vegetation, while volume of erosion and channel morphology were more responsive to variations in grain size and less responsive to presence of vegetation.

North Carolina↗
USGS2015

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: A first step towards ecological modeling

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS1989

Multiple hydrothermal and metamorphic events in the Kidd Creek volcanogenic massive sulphide deposit, Timmins, Ontario: evidence from tourmalines and chlorites

Tourmaline and chlorite are the principal ferromagnesian silicate minerals in the Kidd Creek massive sulphide deposit. Tourmaline is most common in sphalerite-rich peripheral margins of the chalcopyrite stringer zone. Within the north orebody, samples typically contain <1% tourmaline, but small areas (hand-specimen scale) may have 10–20%. Chlorite is more widely distributed and in places constitutes 30–50% of rock volumes. Associated assemblages may include quartz, sulphides (principally chalcopyrite, sphalerite, and (or) pyrite), carbonate, albite, sericite, and rare fluorite, allanite, or zoisite(?).The tourmalines and chlorites record a series of multiple hydrothermal and metamorphic events. Paragenetic studies suggest that tourmaline was deposited during several discrete stages of mineralization, as evidenced by brecciation and cross-cutting relationships. Most of the tourmalines have two concentric growth zones defined by different colours (green, brown, blue, yellow). Some tourmalines also display pale discordant rims that cross-cut and embay the inner growth zones and polycrystalline, multiple-extinction domains. Late sulphide veinlets (chalcopyrite, pyrrhotite) transect the inner growth zones and pale discordant rims of many crystals. The concentric growth zones are interpreted as primary features developed by the main ore-forming hydrothermal system, whereas the discordant rims, polycrystalline domains, and cross-cutting sulphide veinlets reflect post-ore metamorphic processes.Detailed electron microprobe analyses of tourmalines show a wide compositional range, from Fe-rich dravite nearly to end-member schorl, with Fe/(Fe + Mg) ratios varying from 0.33 to 0.92; only minor amounts of Ca are present, yielding uniformly high Na/(Na + Ca) ratios of 0.84–0.99. Two sets of chemical zoning trends are identified in the tourmalines, involving systematic changes in Fe/(Fe + Mg), Na/(Na + Ca), Al, and Ti that are believed to reflect internal coupled substitutions (e.g.,  + Ti = Na + Al) and local mineral equilibria (e.g., tourmaline–chlorite). Analyses of the pale discordant reaction rims show consistent depletion of Fe, Ca, and Ti, presumably by fluid–solid reactions during post-ore metamorphism.Chlorites also show an extensive range in composition, from ripidolite nearly to end-member daphnite, with Fe/(Fe + Mg) ratios of 0.43–0.98 and Si cation values of 5.00–5.39. Chlorites from the fringes of the footwall stringer zone have narrow compositional ranges, whereas chlorites near footwall rhyolite sills in the core of the stringer zone display major variations in Fe/(Fe + Mg) ratios, including one sample with a range of 0.68–0.95. The former group of chlorites has Fe/(Fe + Mg) ratios that correlate well with those of coexisting tourmalines (exclusive of late reaction rims). Data for the latter group, in contrast, fall off equilibrium K D curves, indicating that the tourmalines and chlorites within these samples are not in chemical equilibrium. The chlorites are believed to have been altered (overprinted) by Fe-rich hydrothermal fluids apparently generated during intrusion of the rhyolite sills. The tourmalines, however, are unaffected and retain primary chemical signatures.Variations in mineral proportions and mineral chemistry within the deposit mainly depend on fluctuations in temperature, pH, water/rock ratios, and amounts of entrained seawater. The major proposed control is mixing between high-temperature, Fe-rich end-member hydrothermal fluids and cold, Mg-rich entrained seawater. Fe/(Fe + Mg) variations in footwall tourmalines (and equilibrium chlorites) are believed to largely reflect the progressive infiltration of Mg-rich seawater into the margins and top of the hydrothermal system. The more Fe-rich compositions of Kidd Creek tourmalines relative to those from sediment-hosted massive sulphide deposits (e.g., Sullivan, British Columbia) may be related to the preferential generation of end-member hydrothermal fluids in proximal volcanic environments like that at Kidd Creek.

Ontario↗
USGS2019

Rare earth elements in coal and coal fly ash

The rare earth elements (REEs) are a group of 17 elements sharing similar chemical properties. They include yttrium (Y, atomic number 39), scandium (Sc, atomic number 21), and the 15 elements of the lanthanide series, atomic numbers 57 (lanthanum, La) to 71 (lutetium, Lu). Because promethium (Pm, atomic number 61) does not occur in the Earth’s crust and scandium typically has different geological occurrences from other REEs, they are not discussed further herein. REEs are, on average, more abundant than precious metals (for example, gold, silver, and platinum), but because of their unique geochemical properties, they do not commonly form economically viable ore deposits. Nevertheless, REEs are increasingly required for a range of modern applications in defense and renewable energy technologies and in commercial products, primarily as magnets, batteries, and catalysts. The United States currently (2018) produces REEs from a single mine in California, accounting for just 9 percent of global production, whereas 70 percent of global REE production comes from China. For these reasons, REEs are considered a critical resource, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has an interest in helping to identify new sources of REEs for domestic production. In 2017, coal use accounted for about 30 percent of the electric power generated in the United States. Fly ash, produced during the burning of coal, is a fine­-grained solid derived from noncombustible constituents of coal, such as clay minerals and quartz. When coal is burned, REEs are retained and enriched in the fly ash and, as a result, fly ash has long been considered a potential resource for REEs. The United States has the world’s largest coal reserves and, even though gas-­fired power generation has increased significantly in the last decade, the United States continues to produce vast quantities of fly ash, about half of which is beneficially reused, primarily in construction materials. The remainder is stored, mostly in landfills and impound­ments. Thus, annual fly ash production, combined with fly ash already in stor­age, constitutes a large potential resource. Research into how to utilize coal and coal fly ash as sources of REEs is ongo­ing. Viable recovery of REEs from coal and coal ash requires identification of coals and ashes with the highest REE concentrations and development of workable methods for REE extraction and recovery. Understanding how REEs occur within fly ash, described in this fact sheet, is one of the keys to developing possible methods for their recovery.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2015

Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia

Satellite-derived evapotranspiration anomalies and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are currently used for African agricultural drought monitoring and food security status assessment. In this study, a process to evaluate satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ETa) products with a geospatial statistical exploratory technique that uses NDVI, satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE), and crop yield data has been developed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ETa using the NDVI and RFE, and identify a relationship between the ETa and Ethiopia’s cereal crop (i.e., teff, sorghum, corn/maize, barley, and wheat) yields during the main rainy season. Since crop production is one of the main factors affecting food security, the evaluation of remote sensing-based seasonal ETa was done to identify the appropriateness of this tool as a proxy for monitoring vegetation condition in drought vulnerable and food insecure areas to support decision makers. The results of this study showed that the comparison between seasonal ETa and RFE produced strong correlation ( R 2 > 0.99) for all 41 crop growing zones in Ethiopia. The results of the spatial regression analyses of seasonal ETa and NDVI using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression showed relatively weak yearly spatial relationships ( R 2 < 0.7) for all cropping zones. However, for each individual crop zones, the correlation between NDVI and ETa ranged between 0.3 and 0.84 for about 44% of the cropping zones. Similarly, for each individual crop zones, the correlation ( R 2 ) between the seasonal ETa anomaly and de-trended cereal crop yield was between 0.4 and 0.82 for 76% (31 out of 41) of the crop growing zones. The preliminary results indicated that the ETa products have a good predictive potential for these 31 identified zones in Ethiopia. Decision makers may potentially use ETa products for monitoring cereal crop yields and early warning of food insecurity during drought years for these identified zones.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗
USGS2009

Discriminating assimilants and decoupling deep- vs. shallow-level crystal records at Mount Adams using 238U-230Th disequilibria and Os isotopes

A suite of 23 basaltic to dacitic lavas erupted over the last 350 kyr from the Mount Adams volcanic field has been analyzed for U–Th isotope compositions to evaluate the roles of mantle versus crustal components during magma genesis. All of the lavas have ( 230 Th/ 238 U) > 1 and span a large range in ( 230 Th/ 232 Th) ratios, and most basalts have higher ( 230 Th/ 232 Th) ratios than andesites and dacites. Several of the lavas contain antecrysts (crystals of pre-existing material), yet internal U–Th mineral isochrons from six of seven lavas are indistinguishable from their eruption ages. This indicates a relatively brief period of time between crystal growth and eruption for most of the phenocrysts (olivine, clinopyroxene, plagioclase, magnetite) prior to eruption. One isochron gave a crystallization age that is ~ 20–25 ka older than its corresponding eruptive age, and is interpreted to reflect mixing of older and juvenile crystals or a protracted period of magma storage in the crust. Much of the eruptive volume since 350 ka consists of lavas that have small to moderate 230 Th excesses (2–16%), which are likely inherited from melting of a garnet-bearing intraplate (“OIB-like”) mantle source. Following melt generation and subsequent migration through the upper mantle, most Mt. Adams magmas interacted with young, mafic lower crust, as indicated by 187 Os/ 188 Os ratios that are substantially more radiogenic than the mantle or those expected via mixing of subducted material and the mantle wedge. Moreover, Os–Th isotope variations suggest that unusually large 230 Th excesses (25–48%) and high 187 Os/ 188 Os ratios in some peripheral lavas reflect assimilation of small degree partial melts of pre-Quaternary basement that had residual garnet or Al-rich clinopyroxene. Despite the isotopic evidence for lower crustal assimilation, these processes are not generally recorded in the erupted phenocrysts, indicating that the crystal record of the deep-level ‘cryptic’ processes has been decoupled from shallow-level crystallization.

Washington↗
USGS2005

Transient rheology of the upper mantle beneath central Alaska inferred from the crustal velocity field following the 2002 Denali earthquake

The M7.9 2002 Denali earthquake, Alaska, is one of the largest strike-slip earthquakes ever recorded. The postseismic GPS velocity field around the 300-km-long rupture is characterized by very rapid horizontal velocity up to ???300 mm/yr for the first 0.1 years and slower but still elevated horizontal velocity up to ???100 mm/yr for the succeeding 1.5 years. I find that the spatial and temporal pattern of the displacement field may be explained by a transient mantle rheology. Representing the regional upper mantle as a Burghers body, I infer steady state and transient viscosities of ??1 = 2.8 ?? 1018 Pa s and ??2 = 1.0 ?? 1017 Pa s, respectively, corresponding to material relaxation times of 1.3 and 0.05 years. The lower crustal viscosity is poorly constrained by the considered horizontal velocity field, and the quoted mantle viscosities assume a steady state lower crust viscosity that is 7??1. Systematic bias in predicted versus observed velocity vectors with respect to a fixed North America during the first 3-6 months following the earthquake is reduced when all velocity vectors are referred to a fixed site. This suggests that the post-Denali GPS time series for the first 1.63 years are shaped by a combination of a common mode noise source during the first 3-6 months plus viscoelastic relaxation controlled by a transient mantle rheology.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2011

Process-based modeling of tsunami inundation and sediment transport

The infrequent and unpredictable nature of tsunamis precludes the use of field experiments to measure the hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes that occur. Instead, these processes are often approximated from laboratory, numerical, and theoretical studies or inferred from observations of the resultant sediment deposits. Here Delft3D, a three-dimensional numerical model, is used to simulate the inundation and sediment transport of a tsunami similar in magnitude to the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami over one measured and three idealized morphologies. The model is first shown to match well the observations taken at Kuala Meurisi, Sumatra, and then used to examine in detail the processes that occur during the tsunami. The model predicts that at a given cross-shore location the onshore flow accelerates rapidly to a maximum as the wavefront passes, and then gradually decelerates before reversing direction and flowing offshore. The onshore flow does not tend to zero everywhere at maximum inundation, but instead flow reversal occurs near the shoreline even as the wavefront continues to inundate landward. While some sediment is eroded by the passing wavefront, the suspension of sandy sediment is dominated by the long-duration, high-velocity backwash that occurs along the beach face and offshore of the shoreline. Some of the sediment suspended during backwash is advected shoreward by the subsequent wave, creating large spatial gradients in the suspended sediment concentrations, which may not be in equilibrium with the local hydrodynamics. The inundation and transport of sediment during a tsunami can be affected by complexities in the morphological profile and interactions between multiple waves, and many of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes predicted here are similar to analogous processes previously observed in the swash zone. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2012

Midcontinent rift volcanism in the Lake Superior region: Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopic evidence for a mantle plume origin

Between 1091 and 1098 Ma, most of a 15- to 20-km thickness of dominantly tholeiitic basalt erupted in the Midcontinent Rift System of the Lake Superior region, North America. The Portage Lake Volcanics in Michigan, which are the youngest MRS flood basalts, fall into distinctly high- and low-TiO 2 types having different liquid lines of descent. Incompatible trace elements in both types of tholeiites are enriched compared to depleted or primitive mantle (La/Yb = 4.3–5.3; Th/Ta = 2.12–2.16; Zr/Y = 4.3–4.4), and both basalt types are isotopically indistinguishable. Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopic compositions of the Portage Lake tholeiites have 87 Sr/ 86 Sr i ≈ 0.7038, ε Nd (1095 Ma) ≈ 0±2, and μ 1 ≈ 8.2. Model ages with respect to a depleted mantle source ( T DM ) average about 1950–2100 Ma. Portage Lake rhyolites fall into two groups. Type I rhyolites have Nd and Pb isotopic characteristics (ε Nd (1095 Ma) ≈ 0 to −4.7; μ 1 ≈ 8.2–7.8) consistent with contamination of tholeiitic rocks by 5–10% Archean crust. The one type II rhyolite analyzed has Nd and Pb isotopic compositions (ε Nd (1095 Ma) ≈ −13 to −16; μ 1 ≈ 7.6–7.7) which are consistent with partial melting of Archean crust. Early Proterozoic crust was not a major contaminant of MRS rocks in the Lake Superior region. Most reported Nd and Pb isotopic compositions of MRS tholeiites from the main stage of volcanism in the Lake Superior region and of the Duluth Complex are comparable to the Nd and Pb isotopic data for Portage Lake tholeiites. The isotopic enrichment of the MRS source compared to depleted mantle is striking and must have occurred at least 700 m.y. before 1100 Ma. There are two likely sources for such enriched MRS tholeiitic magmatism: subcontinental lithospheric mantle enriched during the early Proterozoic or enriched mantle derived from an upwelling plume. Subcontinental lithospheric mantle alone as a source cannot be ruled out strictly on isotopic grounds, but melting of enriched lithosphere potentially ranging in age from 3.6 to 1.8 Ga would have been less likely to generate either the homogeneity or the volume of MRS tholeiites. Decompression melting of an upwelling enriched mantle plume in a region of lithosphere thinned by extension could have successfully generated the enormous volume (850×10 3 km 3 ) of relatively homogeneous magma in a restricted time interval.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2022

Selected crater and small caldera lakes in Alaska: Characteristics and hazards

This study addresses the characteristics, potential hazards, and both eruptive and non-eruptive role of water at selected volcanic crater lakes in Alaska. Crater lakes are an important feature of some stratovolcanoes in Alaska. Of the volcanoes in the state with known Holocene eruptive activity, about one third have summit crater lakes. Also included are two volcanoes with small caldera lakes (Katmai, Kaguyak). The lakes play an important but not well studied role in influencing eruptive behavior and pose some significant hydrologic hazards. Floods from crater lakes in Alaska are evaluated by estimating maximum potential crater lake water volumes and peak outflow discharge with a dam-break model. Some recent eruptions and hydrologic events that involved crater lakes also are reviewed. The large volumes of water potentially hosted by crater lakes in Alaska indicate that significant flowage hazards resulting from catastrophic breaching of crater rims are possible. Estimates of maximum peak flood discharge associated with breaching of lake-filled craters derived from dam-break modeling indicate that flood magnitudes could be as large as 10 3 –10 6 m 3 /s if summit crater lakes drain rapidly when at maximum volume. Many of the Alaska crater lakes discussed are situated in hydrothermally altered craters characterized by complex assemblages of stratified unconsolidated volcaniclastic deposits, in a region known for large magnitude (>M7) earthquakes. Although there are only a few historical examples of eruptions involving crater lakes in Alaska, these provide noteworthy examples of the role of external water in cooling pyroclastic deposits, acidic crater-lake drainage, and water-related hazards such as lahars and base surge.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Benchmarking high-resolution hydrologic model performance of long-term retrospective streamflow simulations in the contiguous United States

Because use of high-resolution hydrologic models is becoming more widespread and estimates are made over large domains, there is a pressing need for systematic evaluation of their performance. Most evaluation efforts to date have focused on smaller basins that have been relatively undisturbed by human activity, but there is also a need to benchmark model performance more comprehensively, including basins impacted by human activities. This study benchmarks the long-term performance of two process-oriented, high-resolution, continental-scale hydrologic models that have been developed to assess water availability and risks in the United States (US): the National Water Model v2.1 application of WRF-Hydro (NWMv2.1) and the National Hydrologic Model v1.0 application of the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (NHMv1.0). The evaluation is performed on 5390 streamflow gages from 1983 to 2016 ( ∼ 33 years) at a daily time step, including both natural and human-impacted catchments, representing one of the most comprehensive evaluations over the contiguous US. Using the Kling–Gupta efficiency as the main evaluation metric, the models are compared against a climatological benchmark that accounts for seasonality. Overall, the model applications show similar performance, with better performance in minimally disturbed basins than in those impacted by human activities. Relative regional differences are also similar: the best performance is found in the Northeast, followed by the Southeast, and generally worse performance is found in the Central and West areas. For both models, about 80 % of the sites exceed the seasonal climatological benchmark. Basins that do not exceed the climatological benchmark are further scrutinized to provide model diagnostics for each application. Using the underperforming subset, both models tend to overestimate streamflow volumes in the West, which could be attributed to not accounting for human activities, such as active management. Both models underestimate flow variability, especially the highest flows; this was more pronounced for NHMv1.0. Low flows tended to be overestimated by NWMv2.1, whereas there were both over and underestimations for NHMv1.0, but they were less severe. Although this study focused on model diagnostics for underperforming sites based on the seasonal climatological benchmark, metrics for all sites for both model applications are openly available online.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2023

Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: Application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA

Probabilistic models to inform landslide early warning systems often rely on rainfall totals observed during past events with landslides. However, these models are generally developed for broad regions using large catalogs, with dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of landslide occurrences. This study evaluates strategies for training landslide forecasting models with a scanty record of landslide-triggering events, which is a typical limitation in remote, sparsely populated regions. We evaluate 136 statistical models trained on a precipitation dataset with five landslide-triggering precipitation events recorded near Sitka, Alaska, USA, as well as > 6000 d of non-triggering rainfall (2002–2020). We also conduct extensive statistical evaluation for three primary purposes: (1) to select the best-fitting models, (2) to evaluate performance of the preferred models, and (3) to select and evaluate warning thresholds. We use Akaike, Bayesian, and leave-one-out information criteria to compare the 136 models, which are trained on different cumulative precipitation variables at time intervals ranging from 1 h to 2 weeks, using both frequentist and Bayesian methods to estimate the daily probability and intensity of potential landslide occurrence (logistic regression and Poisson regression). We evaluate the best-fit models using leave-one-out validation as well as by testing a subset of the data. Despite this sparse landslide inventory, we find that probabilistic models can effectively distinguish days with landslides from days without slide activity. Our statistical analyses show that 3 h precipitation totals are the best predictor of elevated landslide hazard, and adding antecedent precipitation (days to weeks) did not improve model performance. This relatively short timescale of precipitation combined with the limited role of antecedent conditions likely reflects the rapid draining of porous colluvial soils on the very steep hillslopes around Sitka. Although frequentist and Bayesian inferences produce similar estimates of landslide hazard, they do have different implications for use and interpretation: frequentist models are familiar and easy to implement, but Bayesian models capture the rare-events problem more explicitly and allow for better understanding of parameter uncertainty given the available data. We use the resulting estimates of daily landslide probability to establish two decision boundaries that define three levels of warning. With these decision boundaries, the frequentist logistic regression model incorporates National Weather Service quantitative precipitation forecasts into a real-time landslide early warning “dashboard” system ( https://sitkalandslide.org/ , last access: 9 October 2023). This dashboard provides accessible and data-driven situational awareness for community members and emergency managers.

Alaska↗