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1,662 records · Page 74Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Suitability of ground-motion models for seismic hazard assessment in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

We perform linear mixed-effects analyses with a ground-motion dataset to evaluate how well ground-motion models (GMMs) fit active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab earthquakes in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Most of the GMMs reproduce the spatial variation in peak ground motions with earthquake magnitude and rupture distance but predict ground motions 0.3–1.0 natural log units (35%–270%) greater than observations. Two GMMs developed for Puerto Rico that are based on ground-motion records from mostly magnitude 4–5 earthquakes do not perform as well. We attribute the period-dependent overprediction in observed ground motions to differences between the observed site response and the linear site response in the GMMs. Consequently, we developed region-specific GMMs by adjusting the period-dependent linear site response coefficients and period-dependent constant coefficients to remove most of the bias between predicted ground motions and observations. For the analysis, we compile ground-motion records and process waveforms to build a dataset with 10,127 records at 72 stations from 849 magnitude 4.0–6.4 earthquakes between 1 January 2006 and 31 March 2024. The earthquakes include active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab events. We evaluate the GMMs using the time-averaged shear wave speed in the top 30 m ( ), which we compile from site surveys and proxy values computed from horizontal to vertical spectral ratios. Site terms exhibit strong consistency across GMMs and crustal and subduction earthquakes, indicating that the linear mixed-effects analysis successfully isolates the effects of local site response. The event terms show little spatial correlation and more substantial variability than in other regions, which we attribute to uncertainties in the earthquake magnitudes. This analysis guides the selection of the GMMs for the 2025 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗
USGS2026

Cultural benefits knowledge and social learning in Elwha River dam removal and ecosystem decision-making

In a retrospective case study of the seminal Elwha River dam removal in Washington State, USA, we explore pathways through which ecosystem services (ES) knowledge can inform environmental decision-making. We specifically investigate how knowledge of cultural benefits linked to the Elwha River ecosystem was made available. Through interviews and historical document review we identify diverse forms of cultural benefits knowledge (i.e., how individuals or groups know the contributions of an ecosystem to their identities, experiences, and capabilities), including both knowledge in the form of practices – embodied or enacted forms of knowledge, and knowledge in the form of products – quantitative or written documentation. Recognizing and learning from the diverse forms in which benefits knowledges are conveyed can support more accurate and equitable consideration of the diverse values, well-beings, and human-nature relationships linked to ecosystems. With this case study, we illuminate pathways for meaningful consideration of multiple knowledge forms, and the plural ecosystem values they convey, with relevance for environmental decision processes in the Puget Sound and beyond.

Washington↗
USGS2026

GST-1: A high-resolution global sediment thickness model

Global Sediment Thickness 1 (GST-1) is a high-resolution sedimentary thickness model calculated on a 0.125° x 0.125° grid. It modifies the sediment thickness of the 1° x 1° Earth Crustal Model 1 (ECM1) by means of 3D inversions of free air gravity anomalies. GST-1 is calculated by performing structural inversions on high-density contrasts across two crustal boundaries: the sediment – basement interface and the crystalline crust – upper mantle interface. The inversions are calculated in each of ten overlapping 3D models that span the globe. These ten models are merged to obtain the GST-1 global model, providing an eight-fold increase in lateral spatial resolution in comparison with ECM1 and CRUST 1.0. Our sediment thickness model exploits the nearly continuous sampling of gravity data when compared to the irregular, sparse sampling of seismic refraction data. Sediment thickness values in GST-1 are in excellent agreement with independently derived cross sections from well-studied sedimentary basins, and within expected resolution limits of seismic refraction data. GST-1 offers a robust, high resolution global model of sedimentary thickness to support studies of sedimentary basins.

Tectonophysics↗
USGS2026

Hydrological control on soil redox condition and carbon loss of coastal wetland under sea-kevel rise

Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO 2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.

Louisiana↗
USGS2026

Open-source gravity reduction workflows for geothermal resource assessment

Potential-field geophysical data such as gravity can enhance understanding of geothermal resources at all stages of the resource life cycle, including assessment, exploration, development, and monitoring, and at multiple scales, from the reservoir scale to regional scale. However, to make gravity data useful for geothermal resource characterization, several processing steps are required to isolate the effects of density variations in the Earth’s crust to enable the identification of structural features associated with geothermal resources. Although this process is well-established, standard computational implementations for processing gravity data that are FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reproduceable) are still lacking. This paper details ongoing efforts at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a standard set of open-source Python tools for gravity data reduction that align with the FAIR principles. This workflow makes use of existing open-source tools for geophysical data processing with the goal of maximizing opportunities for rapid improvements, interoperability, and adaptability to other types of geophysical data.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

ARCHI: A new R package for automated imputation of regionally correlated hydrologic records

Missing data in hydrological records can limit resource assessment, process understanding, and predictive modeling. Here, we present ARCHI (Automated Regional Correlation Analysis for Hydrologic Record Imputation), a new, open-source software package in R designed to aggregate, impute, cluster, and visualize regionally correlated hydrologic records. ARCHI imputes missing data in “target” records by linear regression using more complete “reference” records as predictors. Automated imputation is implemented using a novel, iterative algorithm that allows each site to be considered a target or reference for regression, growing the pool of complete references with each imputed record until viable gap-filling ceases. Users can limit artifacts from spurious correlations by specifying model-acceptance criteria and applying geospatial, correlation, and group-based filters to control reference selection. ARCHI provides additional functions for visualizing results, clustering records with similar correlation structures, evaluating holdout data, and interactive parameterization with an accessible and intuitive graphical user interface (GUI). This methods brief provides an overview of the ARCHI package, modeling guidelines, and benchmarking on two regional groundwater-level datasets from the Central Valley, CA and Long Island, NY. We evaluate ARCHI alongside widely used multivariate imputation software to highlight and contextualize its computational efficiency, imputation accuracy, and model transparency when applied to large, groundwater-level datasets.

California, New York↗
USGS2025

Characterizing Meteor Crater impact melts through geochemistry and textural analysis

The U.S. Geological Survey Astrogeology Science Center houses the Meteor Crater sample collection, an assemblage of over 2,500 meters of cuttings from 161 drill holes into Meteor Crater’s rim, flanks, and ejecta blanket. We have utilized this unique collection to study the composition and spatial distribution of impact-generated materials from within the ejecta blanket. Meteor Crater has historically been known to have generated only a relatively small amount of impact melt compared to other terrestrial craters of similar size. A detailed compositional and textural dataset of impact-derived melts from this impact can therefore be a useful asset in improving our understanding of crater formation, and in particular impact melt formation. We have characterized 42 impact-melt particles from Meteor Crater using a scanning electron microscope and an electron microprobe for textural and compositional analysis. We analyzed samples from six drill holes in the ejecta blanket, situated to the northwest, southeast, south, and southwest of the crater (ejecta northeast of the crater is devoid of impact melts). Impact melts were collected from drill cuttings at various depths within the ejecta blanket, ranging from a few centimeters below the surface down to ~6.5 meters. Backscattered electron (BSE) images were acquired for each analyzed impact-melt particle. To characterize the various textures and phases present in each impact melt, we also took many detailed BSE images. Our geochemical analyses include full spectral profiles using energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry and well-calibrated wavelength dispersive spectrometry for a number of phases, including minerals (olivine, pyroxene, and so on), pristine glass, and metallic inclusions. The full dataset is available in ScienceBase as a data release (Gullikson and others, 2024), accessible at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9OGAJ8P . Our goal for this Open-File Report is to provide a summary of this immense dataset, details on data collection, descriptions of the different phases observed within impact-melt particles (both geochemically and texturally), and observable trends.

Arizona↗
USGS2024

Conceptualization and simulation of groundwater flow and groundwater availability in the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers in northeastern Oklahoma, 1980–2017

Oklahoma Groundwater Law (Oklahoma Statute § 82-1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board conduct hydrologic investigations to determine the maximum annual yield for the State’s groundwater basins. The Boone and Roubidoux aquifers (also known as the Springfield Plateau aquifer and Ozark aquifer, respectively) are bedrock aquifers that extend from northeastern Oklahoma into Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri. At present (2024), the Oklahoma Water Resources Board has yet to legally issue orders for the final determination of maximum annual yields for the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. To support determination of a maxi­mum annual yield, the U.S. Geological Survey, in coopera­tion with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, developed a hydrogeologic framework, a conceptual groundwater-flow model, and a calibrated numerical groundwater-flow model for the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. Three types of groundwater-availability scenarios were simulated by using the calibrated numerical model. These scenarios were used to (1) estimate equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates (groundwater withdrawal applied equally over the aquifer), (2) quantify the potential effects of projected groundwater withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the poten­tial effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought. For the Boone aquifer, equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates were 1.10, 0.98, and 0.96 acre-feet per acre per year for the 20-, 40-, and 50-year scenarios, respectively. For the Roubidoux aquifer, equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates were 1.76, 1.34, and 1.25 acre-feet per acre per year for the 20-, 40-, and 50-year simulations, respectively. For the 50-year scenarios, stream seepage was minimally affected. Over the 10-year drought scenario, groundwater storage in the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers decreased by 660,451 acre-feet (6.7 percent) and 508,472 acre-feet (1.0 per­cent), respectively.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2025

Flood-inundation maps for 14.8 miles of Little and Big Papillion Creeks in Omaha, Nebraska, 2023

Digital flood-inundation map libraries for two reaches that constitute 14.8 miles of Little and Big Papillion Creeks in Omaha, Nebraska, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resource District. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/flood-inundation-mapping-fim-program , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at Little Papillion Creek at Irvington, Nebr. (USGS station 06610750), Little Papillion Creek at Ak-Sar-Ben at Omaha, Nebr. (USGS station 06610765), and Big Papillion Creek at Q Street at Omaha, Nebr. (USGS station 06610770) streamgages. Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System database at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at https://water.weather.gov/ahps/ . Flood profiles were computed for two different reaches that constitute 14.8 miles of stream length in the study area by using hydraulic models. The models were calibrated by adjusting roughness coefficients to best represent the current (2022) stage-streamflow relation at the streamgages within the study reach. The hydraulic models were then used to compute water-surface profiles at 1-foot stage intervals for selected stage ranges to represent various flooding scenarios at the streamgages in each reach. The simulated water-surface profiles then were combined with a digital elevation model using a geographic information system, which had a 10-foot grid spacing to delineate the flooding extents and water depths for each stage. The availability of these flood-inundation maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgages, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities and post flood recovery efforts.

Nebraska↗
USGS2025

Ultramafic float rocks at Jezero crater (Mars): Excavation of lower crustal rocks or mantle peridotites by impact cratering?

Based on observation and data from meteorites and in situ scientific missions, experiments as well as models, the Martian mantle is assumed to share some compositional and mineralogical affinity with the terrestrial mantle. However, there might be subtle differences like the Martian mantle being more ferroan. Yet, we do not have any direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock to confirm this assumption. NASA’s Perseverance rover found olivine-rich boulder-sized float rocks on the upper Jezero fan (Mars). These boulders have an ultramafic composition and their mineralogy is dominantly composed of Fo 73±3 olivine with high-Mg orthopyroxene, Cr-rich Ti-Fe oxides and minor plagioclase and high-Ca pyroxene. Microtextural and petrological analysis reveals that these minerals crystallized at equilibrium. In addition, these boulders are different from all the bedrocks analyzed by Perseverance along its traverse which are crustal igneous rocks and sediments. Comparing our data to Martian meteorites and available Mars bulk silicate models (BSM), we discuss that these boulders could represent primitive melts and/or lower crustal material, and we specifically hypothesize that they could be mantle peridotites. We propose that these putative mantle rocks could have been excavated by the succession of impacts from the shallow mantle or lower crust in the Isidis region where Jezero crater is located. These olivine-rich boulders could thereby constitute the first direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2026

Tracking baseflow supply dynamics using SWOT data from small groundwater-dominated lakes

In situ surface-water monitoring strategies are biased towards larger perennial streams and lakes and are generally not designed to track mechanisms of baseflow supply contributed by the dynamic storage of aquifers. Additionally, small (< 1 km 2 ) groundwater-influenced lakes and wetlands globally have little in situ monitoring infrastructure. We explored the utility of remotely sensed Surface Water Ocean Topography Satellite (SWOT) data, collected from 2023 onward, to characterise the seasonal and multi-year water-level trends of groundwater flow-through kettle lakes distributed across the permeable sediments of eastern Massachusetts, USA. This analysis indicated that water levels for kettle lakes with areas down to approximately 0.05 km 2 are resolvable in the study area. Our examination of 17 kettle lakes found that SWOT water-surface elevation data closely tracked groundwater levels in adjacent monitoring wells where available, including the timing of seasonal patterns (highest levels generally in late spring), although there was some variation between years and there was a substantial lag in the timing of high water levels for a lake located downgradient from a 30-m-thick vadose zone. Furthermore, SWOT-observed water-level increases in kettle lakes tracked with baseflow increases in two adjacent groundwater-dominated streams, as would be expected from increased hydraulic gradients. Unlike spectral remote sensing, SWOT data are generally not affected by cloud cover, resulting in a potential for groundwater-dominated lakes to be sentinels of dynamic storage patterns, including identification of baseflow drought lags, which are currently ill-defined hydrological processes. SWOT monitoring of groundwater-influenced surface waters shows potential for augmenting existing monitoring wells and streamgages as continuous monitors of groundwater levels and baseflow supply in permeable terrain.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2024

Nitrogen deposition weakens soil carbon control of nitrogen dynamics across the contiguous United States

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition is unequally distributed across space and time, with inputs to terrestrial ecosystems impacted by industry regulations and variations in human activity. Soil carbon (C) content normally controls the fraction of mineralized N that is nitrified ( ƒ nitrified ), affecting N bioavailability for plants and microbes. However, it is unknown whether N deposition has modified the relationships among soil C, net N mineralization, and net nitrification. To test whether N deposition alters the relationship between soil C and net N transformations, we collected soils from coniferous and deciduous forests, grasslands, and residential yards in 14 regions across the contiguous United States that vary in N deposition rates. We quantified rates of net nitrification and N mineralization, soil chemistry (soil C, N, and pH), and microbial biomass and function (as beta-glucosidase (BG) and N -acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) activity) across these regions. Following expectations, soil C was a driver of ƒ nitrified across regions, whereby increasing soil C resulted in a decline in net nitrification and ƒ nitrified . The ƒ nitrified value increased with lower microbial enzymatic investment in N acquisition (increasing BG:NAG ratio) and lower active microbial biomass, providing some evidence that heterotrophic microbial N demand controls the ammonium pool for nitrifiers. However, higher total N deposition increased ƒ nitrified , including for high soil C sites predicted to have low ƒ nitrified , which decreased the role of soil C as a predictor of ƒ nitrified . Notably, the drop in contemporary atmospheric N deposition rates during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic did not weaken the effect of N deposition on relationships between soil C and ƒ nitrified . Our results suggest that N deposition can disrupt the relationship between soil C and net N transformations, with this change potentially explained by weaker microbial competition for N. Therefore, past N inputs and soil C should be used together to predict N dynamics across terrestrial ecosystems.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2024

Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, May 19–26, 2021

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, near nine bridges at eight highway crossings of the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, from May 19 to 26, 2021. A multibeam echosounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches about 1,640 to 1,840 feet (ft) longitudinally and generally extending laterally across the active channel from bank to bank during low to moderate flood-flow conditions. These surveys provided channel geometry and hydraulic conditions at the time of the surveys and provided characteristics of scour holes that may be useful in developing or verifying predictive guidelines or equations for computing potential scour depth. These data also may be useful to the Missouri Department of Transportation as a low to moderate flood-flow assessment of the bridges for stability and integrity issues with respect to bridge scour during floods. Bathymetric data were collected around every in-channel pier. Scour holes were present at most piers for which bathymetry could be obtained, except those on banks or surrounded by riprap. Occasionally, scour holes were minor and difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples. All the bridge sites in this study were previously surveyed and documented in previous studies. Comparisons between bathymetric surfaces from the previous surveys and those of the current (2021) study do not indicate any consistent correlation between channel-bed elevations and streamflow conditions. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 1.59 ft higher to 0.95 ft lower in 2021 than 2017, which corresponds to a gain of 100,200 cubic yards and a loss of 55,800 cubic yards, respectively. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 2.74 ft higher to 3.05 ft lower in 2021 than 2013, which corresponds to a gain of 111,500 cubic yards and a loss of 169,200 cubic yards, respectively. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 4.52 ft higher to 1.38 ft lower in 2021 than 2011, which corresponds to a gain of 221,100 cubic yards and a loss of 90,300 cubic yards, respectively. The most substantial overall net gain was 221,100 cubic yards between 2011 and 2021 at structures L0550 and A4497 at Jefferson City (site 20). The large net gain likely results from a combination of the mitigation of the scour holes near pier 4 of both bridges and the substantially lower flow in 2021 than in 2011. Alternatively, the most substantial overall net loss was 169,200 cubic yards between 2013 and 2021 at structure A6288 at Hermann (site 21), despite comparable streamflows. Pier size, nose shape, and skew to approach flow had a substantial effect on the size of the scour hole observed at a given pier. Larger and deeper scour holes were present at piers with wide or blunt noses caused by exposed footings or caissons. When a pier was skewed to primary approach flow, the scour hole was generally deeper and larger than at a similar pier without skew; furthermore, the shape of the scour hole near skewed piers in this study generally was longer and deeper on the side with impinging flow. At structure A6288 at Hermann (site 21), the scour hole near pier 5 was difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples, whereas the upstream edge of the footing was visible at pier 4, which likely contributes to the larger scour hole near that pier; the top of the footing may blunt the horseshoe vortex at pier 5, but the exposed front of the footing may exacerbate the vortex at pier 4.

Missouri↗
USGS2026

Hydrologic variability drives environmental and geospatial relationships in Smallmouth Bass (Micropterus dolomieu) distribution

Hydrologic variation is a primary driver of stream ecosystems. Changing hydrology can lead to assemblage shifts and alterations in suitable habitat for freshwater species. As climate change is predicted to alter flow patterns in addition to increasing water temperatures, insight into relationships between species occupancy, hydrology, and temperature is critical for understanding current and future distributions. We examined how hydrologic variability, temperature, and other environmental variables interact to influence Micropterus dolomieu (Smallmouth Bass) occurrence. We used Spatial Stream Network models, allowing for the incorporation of spatial autocorrelation along streams' unique dendritic network, to examine Smallmouth Bass occupancy across a range of hydrologic variation in the Ozark-Ouachita Interior Highlands, USA. Hydrologic variation was the main driver of Smallmouth Bass occurrence, with occurrence more likely in groundwater streams with low hydrologic variation and high flow permanence. For groundwater streams, occurrence was positively associated with summer stream temperature and negatively associated with annual stream temperature. As variation increased, more variables showed significant relationships with occurrence. Distance metrics were important for all models, however as hydrologic disturbance increased, flow connected distance played a lesser role and stream distance played a greater role. Hydrologic variability was the overarching determinant of Smallmouth Bass occurrence and strongly influenced the predictive importance of environmental variables and geospatial relationships. Greater hydrologic variability resulted in stronger statistical relationships between occurrence and environmental variables and an increased importance of system connectivity. As climate change alters hydrologic processes and streams become more variable, understanding and accounting for these shifting relationships is essential.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗
USGS2024

Fish beta diversity associated with hydrologic and anthropogenic disturbance gradients in contrasting stream flow regimes

Understanding the role of hydrologic variation in structuring aquatic communities is crucial for successful conservation and sustainable management of native freshwater biodiversity. Partitioning beta diversity into the additive components of spatial turnover and nestedness can provide insight into the forces driving variability in fish assemblages across stream flow regimes. We examined stream fish beta diversity across hydrologic and anthropogenic disturbance gradients using long-term (1916–2016) site occurrence records ( n = 17,375) encompassing 252 species. We assessed total beta diversity (Sørensen dissimilarity), spatial turnover, and nestedness of fish assemblages in contrasting stream flow regimes across a gradient of decreasing flow stability: groundwater stable ( n = 77), groundwater ( n = 67), groundwater flashy ( n = 175), perennial runoff ( n = 141), runoff flashy ( n = 255), and intermittent ( n = 63) streams. Differences in total beta diversity among the stream flow regimes were driven predominantly (>86 %) by spatial turnover (i.e. species replacement) as opposed to nestedness (i.e. species loss or gain). Total fish beta diversity and spatial turnover were highest in streams with intermediate flow stability (groundwater flashy), while more flow-stable streams (groundwater stable and groundwater) had lower turnover and higher nestedness. Species turnover was also strongly associated with seasonal variation in hydrology across all flow regimes, but these relationships were most evident for assemblages in intermittent streams. Distance-based statistical comparisons showed significant correlations between beta diversity and anthropogenic disturbance variables, including dam density, dam storage volume and water withdrawals in catchments of groundwater stable streams, while hydrologic variables were more strongly correlated with beta diversity in streams with runoff-dominated and flashy flow regimes. The high spatial turnover of species implies that fish conservation actions would benefit from watershed-focused approaches targeting multiple streams with wide spatial distribution, as opposed to simply focusing on preserving sites with the greatest number of species.

Science of the Total Envionrment↗
USGS2024

Using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method to estimate thickness of the Barry Arm landslide, Prince William Sound, Alaska

Conducting detailed investigations of large landslides is difficult, especially in the subsurface, largely due to environmental factors such as steep slopes, difficult access, and numerous objective hazards. These factors have made it challenging to accurately estimate the depth to the failure surface of the Barry Arm landslide, a large (roughly 10 8 cubic meters), deep-seated bedrock landslide in Prince William Sound, Alaska, recognized in 2019. The landslide has exhibited accelerated movement in recent years and poses a potential tsunamigenic hazard if rapid failure occurs. Failure surface depth, equivalent to landslide thickness, is a necessary metric for landslide-volume calculations and associated tsunami wave models. In this report, we used seismic noise recorded by a seismometer located on the Barry Arm landslide in Alaska to calculate the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) to investigate the site fundamental frequency ( f 0 ) and depth of the failure surface. To ensure that observed peak frequencies in the spectral ratio were related to the underlying stratigraphy (and not caused by other noise sources like nearby glaciers, topographic resonance, weather, or human activities), we also calculated HVSRs using earthquake signals, HVSRs at other seismic stations within a 2.5-kilometer radius, and a standard spectral ratio between the landslide station and other sites. We observed multiple peaks in the landslide HVSR curves at 1.5 hertz (Hz), 4–5 Hz, and 7–11 Hz. The frequencies of these peaks were consistent at the landslide site through time and across methods and were dissimilar to those identified at other seismic stations in the area, making it unlikely the peaks were caused by local noise. Directional HVSRs calculated at 15-degree intervals showed amplification of the higher frequency peaks in the direction parallel to slip, indicating two-dimensional site effects. We used the distinct frequency peaks in the seismic record to develop a 4-layer conceptual model of the landslide wherein the top of the deepest layer represents the primary failure surface, or the boundary between damaged (mobile) and undamaged material. We inverted Rayleigh wave ellipticity curves within this 4-layer configuration with constraints on S-wave velocity and layer thickness based on analogous material properties identified in the literature. This was necessary absent any site-specific subsurface S-wave velocity data. The best-fitting models indicate a mean slope-normal depth to the failure surface of 188 (±9) meters (m), with additional stratigraphic boundaries at 4 and 20 m below ground surface, potentially representing layered motion. These results agree with and improve upon ranges estimated by previous studies and can support future modeling and assessment efforts at Barry Arm.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Ground-motion aleatory-variability models for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

I develop independent logic trees for aleatory variability for crustal and subduction-zone (interface and intraslab) earthquakes for seismic hazards analyses in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) from existing suites of ground-motion models (GMMs) and from ground-motion datasets, including a regional PRVI dataset. The aleatory variability models are parameterized using a partially nonergodic partitioning of standard deviation that consists of independently developed between-event ( ), site-to-site ( ), and event-corrected single-station ( ) standard deviation components. The effects of nonlinear site response on aleatory variability are incorporated through additional terms that modify the standard deviation components. Because one goal of this work is to develop independent logic trees for aleatory variability that synthesize the aleatory variability models from GMMs, I make use of the functional forms of the input GMMs. The PRVI dataset contains a limited number of stations with high-quality site metadata and does not contain records from earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6.1, so I choose not to develop the aleatory variability models from the regional dataset alone. Instead, the standard deviation components from regional ground-motion data are evaluated against the components derived from GMMs and from available global datasets, and regionalized standard deviation components are incorporated where there is evidence that regional effects exhibit substantial differences. The resulting logic trees for aleatory variability consist of models of and that are consistent with semiempirical GMMs for active crustal and subduction-zone regimes, and two alternative models of , including one model that exhibits site-to-site variability informed by PRVI data, with values that exceed global models. The aleatory variability models may be considered in future hazards assessments in PRVI to simplify the hazard calculations, to incorporate regional ground-motion variability effects, and to enable direct logic-tree weighs of aleatory variability.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗