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USGS2014

Widespread gas hydrate instability on the upper U.S. Beaufort margin

The most climate-sensitive methane hydrate deposits occur on upper continental slopes at depths close to the minimum pressure and maximum temperature for gas hydrate stability. At these water depths, small perturbations in intermediate ocean water temperatures can lead to gas hydrate dissociation. The Arctic Ocean has experienced more dramatic warming than lower latitudes, but observational data have not been used to study the interplay between upper slope gas hydrates and warming ocean waters. Here we use (a) legacy seismic data that constrain upper slope gas hydrate distributions on the U.S. Beaufort Sea margin, (b) Alaskan North Slope borehole data and offshore thermal gradients determined from gas hydrate stability zone thickness to infer regional heat flow, and (c) 1088 direct measurements to characterize multidecadal intermediate ocean warming in the U.S. Beaufort Sea. Combining these data with a three-dimensional thermal model shows that the observed gas hydrate stability zone is too deep by 100 to 250 m. The disparity can be partially attributed to several processes, but the most important is the reequilibration (thinning) of gas hydrates in response to significant (~0.5°C at 2σ certainty) warming of intermediate ocean temperatures over 39 years in a depth range that brackets the upper slope extent of the gas hydrate stability zone. Even in the absence of additional ocean warming, 0.44 to 2.2 Gt of methane could be released from reequilibrating gas hydrates into the sediments underlying an area of ~5–7.5 × 10 3 km 2 on the U.S. Beaufort Sea upper slope during the next century.

Alaska↗

USGS2005

Reconstructing a mid-Cretaceous landscape from paleosols in western Canada

The Albian Stage of the mid-Cretaceous was a time of equable climate conditions with high sea levels and broad shallow epeiric seas that may have had a moderating affect on continental climates. A Late Albian landscape surface that developed during a regression and subsequent sea-level rise in the Western Canada Foreland Basin is reconstructed on the basis of correlation of paleosols penetrated by cores through the Paddy Member of the Peace River Formation. Reconstruction of this landscape refines chronostratigraphic relationships and will benefit future paleoclimatological studies milizing continental sphaerosiderite proxy records. The paleosols developed in estuarine sandstones and mudstones, and they exhibit evidence of a polygenetic history. Upon initial exposure and pedogenesis, the Paddy Member developed deeply weathered, well-drained cumulative soil profiles. Later stages of pedogenesis were characterized by hydromorphic soil conditions. The stages of soil development interpreted for the Paddy Member correlate with inferred stages of pedogenic development in time-equivalent formations located both basinward and downslope (upper Viking Formation), and landward and upslope (Boulder Creek Formation). On the basis of the genetic similarity among paleosols in these three correlative formations, the paleosols are interpreted as having formed along a single, continuous landscape surface. Results of this study indicate that the catena concept of pedogenesis along sloping landscapes is applicable to ancient successions. Sphaerosiderites in the Paddy Mem ber paleosols are used to provide proxy values for meteoric ??18O values at 52?? N paleolatitude in the Cretaceous Western Interior Basin. The meteoric ??18O values are used to refine existing interpretations about the mid-Cretaceous paleolatitudinal gradient in meteoric ?? 18O values, and the mid-Cretaceous hydrologic cycle. Copyright ?? 2005, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

Journal of Sedimentary Research↗

USGS2008

Nutrient dynamics as indicators of karst processes: Comparison of the Chalk aquifer (Normandy, France) and the Edwards aquifer (Texas, U.S.A.)

Karst aquifers display a range of geologic and geomorphic characteristics in a wide range of climatic and land-use settings; identification of transport dynamics representative of karst aquifers in general could help advance our understanding of these complex systems. To this end, nutrient, turbidity, and major ion dynamics in response to storms were compared at multiple sites in two karst aquifers with contrasting characteristics and settings: the Chalk aquifer (Eure Department, Normandy, France) and the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer (Texas, U.S.A.). The Chalk aquifer is typified by high matrix porosity, thick surficial deposits (up to 30??m thick), and agricultural land use; the Barton Springs segment is typified by low matrix porosity, outcropping limestone, and urban land use. Following one to three storms, from 5 to 16 samples from springs and wells were analyzed for major ions, and specific conductance and turbidity were monitored continuously. Comparison of the chemographs indicated some generalized responses, including an increase in turbidity and potassium concentrations and a decrease in major ion and nitrate concentrations with infiltrating storm runoff. Factor analysis of major ions and turbidity revealed strikingly similar behavior of the chemical variables for the two aquifers: The first two factors, explaining more than 75% of the variability, illustrate that dynamics of most major ions (including nitrate) are opposed to those of turbidity and of potassium. The results demonstrate that potassium and nitrate are effective tracers of infiltrating storm runoff and resident ground water, respectively, and the similar results for these two highly contrasting aquifers suggest that the dynamics identified might be applicable to karst systems in general. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗

USGS2021

Post-wildfire hydrologic recovery in Mediterranean climates: A systematic review and case study to identify current knowledge and opportunities

Post-fire hydrologic research typically focuses on the first few years after a wildfire , leading to substantial uncertainty regarding the longevity of impacts. The time needed for hydrologic function to return to pre-fire conditions is critical information for post-fire land and water management decisions. This is particularly true in Mediterranean climates , where water is scarce and in high demand, and the severity and area burned by wildfires are increasing. In part, uncertainty about hydrologic recovery is due to lack of a consistent definition or interpretation of what constitutes “recovery.” Here, we systematically reviewed empirical studies from Mediterranean climates with at least three years of post-fire hydrologic data with the objectives of (a) assessing the recovery period, (b) identifying a definition of post-fire hydrologic recovery, (c) demonstrating a simple analytical approach to aid in assessment of recovery, and (d) outlining research needs and opportunities to better quantify post-fire recovery. We assessed the hydrologic effects reported in 38 sites that were monitored for 3–20 years. Eighteen sites were considered recovered within seven years; however, the recovery time was inconsistent across sites and was not related to location, response variable, or study design. The likelihood of recovery within the study period also decreased with increasing proportion of the watershed area burned. Importantly, we have also proposed a standardized definition and an approach to quantifying hydrologic recovery that may facilitate cross-study comparisons and a deeper understanding of recovery. Specifically, we propose hydrologic recovery has occurred when a specific post-fire hydrologic function or condition of interest returns to the 95% confidence interval of the pre-fire condition. In support of this definition, we have demonstrated applying this simple approach to assess recovery and presented future research topics to improve our understanding of long-term post-fire catchment responses. In addition to the need for more studies that quantify hydrologic responses farther into the post-fire period, understanding post-fire changes in soil structural and hydraulic properties through time will improve our mechanistic understanding of post-fire hydrologic responses and recovery.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2023

Estimating streamflow permanence with the watershed erosion prediction project model: Implications for surface water presence modeling and data collection

Many data collection efforts and modeling studies have focused on providing accurate estimates of streamflow while fewer efforts have sought to identify when and where surface water is present and the duration of surface water presence in stream channels, hereafter referred to as streamflow permanence. While physically-based hydrological models are frequently used to explore how water quantity may be influenced by various climatic and basin characteristics at local, regional, national, and global extents they are less often used to explore streamflow permanence. Herein, the Watershed Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) hydrological model is applied to watersheds in the humid H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) and watersheds of the arid Willow and Whitehorse creeks (WW), both in Oregon, to simulate daily (WW) and annual (HJA and WW) streamflow permanence. One thousand parameter combinations were tested to calibrate WEPP to observed streamflow in the HJA watersheds and one hundred parameter combinations were tested to calibrate WEPP to observed surface water presence time series data in WW watersheds. When calibrated to observed streamflow, WEPP correctly classified annual streamflow permanence for 83% of HJA stream reaches. In the WW, WEPP simulations correctly classified 63–93% of daily streamflow permanence observations and 59-87% of annual streamflow permanence classifications. Inclusion of a dry-day threshold (the maximum number of days a stream reach could be modeled ‘dry’ but still classified as permanent for the year) improved annual accuracy in three WW watersheds from 2-10%. Parameter sets that produced the best daily accuracies in WW resulted in poor annual accuracies. Results highlight the importance of evaluating physically-based streamflow permanence models on both permanent and nonpermanent streams at daily and annual time scales to ensure evaluation metrics are appropriate for interpretation purposes. Additionally, results suggest that strategic collection of surface water presence observations and streamflow observations may support robust calibration of physically based models to simulate streamflow permanence moving forward.

Oregon↗

USGS2002

Linking the pacific decadal oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in Southeast Alaska

This study identified and examined differences in Southeast Alaskan streamflow patterns between the two most recent modes of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Identifying relationships between the PDO and specific regional phenomena is important for understanding climate variability, interpreting historical hydrological variability, and improving water-resources forecasting. Stream discharge data from six watersheds in Southeast Alaska were divided into cold-PDO (1947-1976) and warm-PDO (1977-1998) subsets. For all watersheds, the average annual streamflows during cold-PDO years were not significantly different from warm-PDO years. Monthly and seasonal discharges, however, did differ significantly between the two subsets, with the warm-PDO winter flows being typically higher than the cold-PDO winter flows and the warm-PDO summer flows being typically lower than the cold-PDO flows. These results were consistent with and driven by observed temperature and snowfall patterns for the region. During warm-PDO winters, precipitation fell as rain and ran-off immediately, causing higher than normal winter streamflow. During cold-PDO winters, precipitation was stored as snow and ran off during the summer snowmelt, creating greater summer streamflows. The Mendenhall River was unique in that it experienced higher flows for all seasons during the warm-PDO relative to the cold-PDO. The large amount of Mendenhall River discharge caused by glacial melt during warm-PDO summers offset any flow reduction caused by lack of snow accumulation during warm-PDO winters. The effect of the PDO on Southeast Alaskan watersheds differs from other regions of the Pacific Coast of North America in that monthly/seasonal discharge patterns changed dramatically with the switch in PDO modes but annual discharge did not. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2011

Hydrodynamics of a bathymetrically complex fringing coral reef embayment: Wave climate, in situ observations, and wave prediction

This paper examines the relationship between offshore wave climate and nearshore waves and currents at Hanalei Bay, Hawaii, an exposed bay fringed with coral reefs. Analysis of both offshore in situ data and numerical hindcasts identify the predominance of two wave conditions: a mode associated with local trade winds and an episodic pattern associated with distant source long-period swells. Analysis of 10 months of in situ data within the bay show that current velocities are up to an order of magnitude greater during long-period swell episodes than during trade wind conditions; overall circulation patterns are also fundamentally different. The current velocities are highly correlated with incident wave heights during the swell episodes, while they are not during the modal trade wind conditions. A phase-averaged wave model was implemented with the dual purpose of evaluating application to bathymetrically complex fringing reefs and to examine the propagation of waves into the nearshore in an effort to better explain the large difference in observed circulation during the two offshore wave conditions. The prediction quality of this model was poorer for the episodic condition than for the lower-energy mode, however, it illustrated how longer-period swells are preferentially refracted into the bay and make available far more nearshore wave energy to drive currents compared to waves during modal conditions. The highly episodic circulation, the nature of which is dependent on complex refraction patterns of episodic, long-period swell has implications for flushing and sediment dynamics for incised fringing reef-lined bays that characterize many high islands at low latitudes around the world.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2011

Evidence for mechanical and chemical alteration of iron-nickel meteorites on Mars: Process insights for Meridiani Planum

The weathering of meteorites found on Mars involves chemical and physical processes that can provide clues to climate conditions at the location of their discovery. Beginning on sol 1961, the Opportunity rover encountered three large iron meteorites within a few hundred meters of each other. In order of discovery, these rocks have been assigned the unofficial names Block Island, Shelter Island, and Mackinac Island. Each rock presents a unique but complimentary set of features that increase our understanding of weathering processes at Meridiani Planum. Significant morphologic characteristics interpretable as weathering features include (1) a large pit in Block Island, lined with delicate iron protrusions suggestive of inclusion removal by corrosive interaction; (2) differentially eroded kamacite and taenite lamellae in Block Island and Shelter Island, providing relative timing through crosscutting relationships with deposition of (3) an iron oxide-rich dark coating; (4) regmaglypted surfaces testifying to regions of minimal surface modification, with other regions in the same meteorites exhibiting (5) large-scale, cavernous weathering (in Shelter Island and Mackinac Island). We conclude that the current size of the rocks is approximate to their original postfall contours. Their morphology thus likely results from a combination of atmospheric interaction and postfall weathering effects. Among our specific findings is evidence supporting (1) at least one possible episode of aqueous acidic exposure for Block Island; (2) ripple migration over portions of the meteorites; (3) a minimum of two separate episodes of wind abrasion; alternating with (4) at least one episode of coating-forming chemical alteration, most likely at subzero temperatures.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2006

General circulation model simulations of winter and summer sea-level pressures over North America

Temporal variability of synoptic-scale circulation is a dominant factor in regional temporal climate variations. In the midlatitudes, temporal variability of synoptic-scale circulation has been found to be related to temporal variations in regional air temperature and precipitation. General circulation model (GCM) simulations of long-term changes in synoptic-scale circulation may be useful in assessing the effects of climate change on regional air temperature and precipitation. Atmospheric pressure is an important component of synoptic-scale circulation. In this paper, observed sea-level pressures were used to evaluate winter and summer sea-level pressures over North America simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models. The objective of the study is to determine how similar the spatial and temporal distributions of GCM-simulated daily sea-level pressures over North America are to observed distributions. Overall, both models are better at reproducing observed within-season variance of winter and summer sea-level pressures than they are at simulating the magnitude of mean winter and summer sea-level pressures. Results indicate that winter sea-level pressures are better simulated by the GISS model than by the GFDL model. The GFDL model simulates anomalously high winter sea-level pressures over north-eastern North America. In summer, the GISS model underestimates sea-level pressures, whereas the GFDL model overestimates sea-level pressures over most of North America. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests indicate that much of the error in model simulations can be attributed to differences between simulated and observed means. Comparisons of spatial correlation matrices of observed and simulated sea-level pressures indicate that GCMs simulate spatial variability of sea-level pressures that is similar to observed. These results suggest that GCMs are able to simulate major components of synoptic-scale circulation over North America, especially for winter.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2021

Metabolic flexibility of aerobic methanotrophs under anoxic conditions in Arctic lake sediments

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from Arctic lakes are a large and growing source of greenhouse gas to the atmosphere with critical implications for global climate. Because Arctic lakes are ice covered for much of the year, understanding the metabolic flexibility of methanotrophs under anoxic conditions would aid in characterizing the mechanisms responsible for limiting CH 4 emissions from high-latitude regions. Using sediments from an active CH 4 seep in Lake Qalluuraq, Alaska, we conducted DNA-based stable isotope probing (SIP) in anoxic mesocosms and found that aerobic Gammaproteobacterial methanotrophs dominated in assimilating CH 4 . Aerobic methanotrophs were also detected down to 70 cm deep in sediments at the seep site, where anoxic conditions persist. Metagenomic analyses of the heavy DNA from 13 CH 4 -SIP incubations showed that these aerobic methanotrophs had the capacity to generate intermediates such as methanol, formaldehyde, and formate from CH 4 oxidation and to oxidize formaldehyde in the tetrahydromethanopterin (H 4 MPT)-dependent pathway under anoxic conditions. The high levels of Fe present in sediments, combined with Fe and CH 4 profiles in the persistent CH 4 seep site, suggested that oxidation of CH 4 , or, more specifically, its intermediates such as methanol and formaldehyde might be coupled to iron reduction. Aerobic methanotrophs also possessed genes associated with nitrogen and hydrogen metabolism, which might provide potentially alternative energy conservation options under anoxic conditions. These results expand the known metabolic spectrum of aerobic methanotrophs under anoxic conditions and necessitate the re-assessment of the mechanisms underlying CH 4 oxidation in the Arctic, especially under lakes that experience extended O 2 limitations during ice cover.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Are we heading towards a global decrease in coregonine catches?

Coregonines have specific ecological needs, making them potentially very vulnerable to changes in lake conditions. A contemporary concern is that many lakes worldwide are experiencing environmental changes due to anthropogenic pressure and climate warming. Here, we compiled long-term data of coregonine catches from 27 lakes from three continents in the northern hemisphere. Declines in catch were observed in 67% of the lakes during the first two decades of the 21 st century, with a significant trend (p-value<0.05) in 44% of the cases. An analysis to determine whether trends are globally linked to environmental conditions and specific lake attributes was carried out on 26 lakes for the period 2000–2019. Several local declines in catches had already been documented in the literature and are likely to be due to local forcing such as nutrients, species invasions and changes in fishing practices. Nevertheless, on a global scale, our results indicate that lakes, which exhibited a significant decrease in catch were larger and more nutrient-poor than other lakes. The rate of change in catches appeared to be related to the trophic state of the lake. The specific effect of warming is difficult to determine during the studied period. When warming occurred outside the period of egg incubation, decreasing trends were more frequently observed in nutrient-poor than in mesotrophic lakes. In conclusion, our findings suggest that achieving oligo- or ultraoligotrophic conditions, as required in developed countries to control phytoplankton blooms and enhance water quality, could pose significant challenges for future management of coregonine fisheries.

International Journal of Limnology↗

USGS2010

Predictions of turbidity due to enhanced sediment resuspension resulting from sea-level rise on a fringing Coral Reef: Evidence from Molokai, Hawaii

Accelerating sea-level rise associated with global climate change will affect sedimentary processes on coral reefs and other shoreline environments by increasing energy and sediment resuspension. On reefs, sedimentation is known to increase coral stress and bleaching as particles that settle on coral surfaces interfere with photosynthesis and feeding, and turbidity induced by suspended sediment reduces incident light levels. Using relationships developed from observations of wave orbital velocity, water-surface elevation, and suspended-sediment concentration on a fringing reef flat of Molokai, Hawaii, predictions of the average daily maximum in suspended-sediment concentration increase from ~11 mg/l to ~20 mg/l with 20 cm sea-level rise. The duration of time concentrations exceeds 10 mg/l increases from 9 to 37. An evaluation of the reduction of wave energy flux through breaking and frictional dissipation across the reef flat shows an increase of ~80 relative to the present will potentially reach the shoreline as sea level increases by 20 cm. Where the shoreline exists on low, flat terrain, the increased energy could cause significant erosion of the shoreline. Considering the sediment budget, the sediment flux is predicted to increase and removal of fine-grained sediment may be expedited on some fringing reefs, and sediment in storage on the inner reef could ultimately be reduced. However, increased shoreline erosion may add sediment and offset removal from the reef flat. The shifts in sediment availability and transport that will occur as result of a modest increase in sea level have wide application to fringing coral reefs elsewhere, as well as other shoreline environments. ?? 2010 the Coastal Education & Research Foundation (CERF).

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2014

Trends in precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration for rivers draining to the Gulf of Maine in the United States

Climate warming is projected to result in increases in total annual precipitation in northeastern North America. The response of runoff to increases in precipitation is likely to be more complex because increasing evapotranspiration (ET) could counteract increasing precipitation. This study was conducted to examine these competing trends in the historical record for 22 rivers having >70 yr of runoff data. Annual (water year) average precipitation increased in all basins, with increases ranging from 0.9 to 3.12 mm yr −1 . Runoff increased in all basins with increases ranging from 0.67 to 2.58 mm yr −1 . The ET was calculated by using a water balance approach in which changes in terrestrial water storage were considered negligible. ET increased in 16 basins and decreased in 6 basins. Temporal trends in temperature, precipitation, runoff, and ET were also calculated for each basin over their respective periods of record for runoff and for the consistent period (1927–2011) for the area-weighted average of the nine largest non-nested basins. From 1927 through 2011, precipitation and runoff increased at average rates of 1.6 and 1.7 mm yr −1 , respectively, and ET increased slightly at a rate of 0.18 mm yr −1 . For the more recent period (1970–2011), there was a positive trend in ET of 1.9 mm yr −1 . The lack of a more consistent increase in ET, compared with the increases in precipitation and runoff, for the full periods of record, was unexpected, but may be explained by various factors including decreasing wind speed, increasing cloudiness, decreasing vapor pressure deficit, and patterns of forest growth.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗

USGS2018

Necropsy-based wild fish health assessment

Anthropogenic influences from increased nutrients and chemical contaminants, to habitat alterations and climate change, can have significant effects on fish populations. Adverse effects monitoring, utilizing biomarkers from the organismal to the molecular level, can be used to assess the cumulative effects on fishes and other organisms. Fish health has been used worldwide as an indicator of aquatic ecosystem health. The necropsy-based fish health assessment provides data on visible abnormalities and lesions, parasites, condition and organosomatic indices. These can be compared by site, season and sex, as well as temporally, to document change over time. Severity ratings can be assigned to various observations to calculate a fish health index for more quantitative assessment. A drawback of the necropsy-based assessment is that it is based on visual observations and condition factors, which are not as sensitive as tissue and subcellular biomarkers for sublethal effects. Additionally, it is rarely possible to identify causes or risk factors associated with observed abnormalities. So, for instance a raised lesion or "tumor" on the fins, lips or body surface may be a neoplasm. However, it could also be a response to a parasite, chronic inflammation or hyperplasia of normal cells in response to an irritant. Conversely, neoplasms, certain parasites, other infectious agents and many tissue changes are not visible and so may be underestimated. However, during the necropsy-based assessment, blood (plasma), tissues for histopathology (microscopic pathology), genomics and other molecular analyses, and otoliths for aging can be collected. These downstream analyses, together with geospatial analyses, habitat assessments, water quality and contaminant analyses can all be important in comprehensive ecosystem evaluations.

Journal of Visualized Experiments↗

USGS2026

Network-wide assessment of soil water content calibration and sensitivity to biomass proxies using cosmic-ray neutron sensing in the Roaring Fork Basin, Colorado

Soil water content (SWC) is a key state variable of the climate system but is often uncertain in water balance monitoring, especially in alpine environments. SWC measurements can be challenging in alpine environments due to the topography and rocky soils. In 2022, the US Geological Survey's Next Generation Water Observing System Program began research to evaluate water balance monitoring technologies, including cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNS). This work evaluated the uncertainty resulting from network-wide calibration of CRNS for SWC monitoring in an alpine watershed and investigated the stability of the calibration parameters across space and time, focusing on potential influence of biomass dynamics. Fifteen stations with moderated and unmoderated (bare) CRNS were deployed and made operational within the Roaring Fork Basin in west-central Colorado. The root mean squared error of the network-wide calibration using the moderated CRNS was 0.042 or 0.047 cm 3 cm −3 , depending on the calibration equation used. Relative SWC dynamics from CRNS were correlated with the in situ probes with a correlation coefficient of 0.91 or 0.87 (depending on calibration equation). We did not find significant relationships between the calibration parameters and stationary site-specific variables. However, the calibration parameters derived from in situ probe SWC dynamics varied over time and were correlated with biomass proxies of cumulative growing degree-day, cumulative growing season index, and bare neutron counts. Future use of the CRNS network can leverage the reliable relative SWC data from network-wide calibration for watershed modeling and continue to research sensitivity of bare neutron measurements to biomass dynamics.

Colorado↗

USGS2009

Reducing streamflow forecast uncertainty: Application and qualitative assessment of the upper klamath river Basin, Oregon

The accuracy of streamflow forecasts depends on the uncertainty associated with future weather and the accuracy of the hydrologic model that is used to produce the forecasts. We present a method for streamflow forecasting where hydrologic model parameters are selected based on the climate state. Parameter sets for a hydrologic model are conditioned on an atmospheric pressure index defined using mean November through February (NDJF) 700-hectoPascal geopotential heights over northwestern North America [Pressure Index from Geopotential heights (PIG)]. The hydrologic model is applied in the Sprague River basin (SRB), a snowmelt-dominated basin located in the Upper Klamath basin in Oregon. In the SRB, the majority of streamflow occurs during March through May (MAM). Water years (WYs) 1980-2004 were divided into three groups based on their respective PIG values (high, medium, and low PIG). Low (high) PIG years tend to have higher (lower) than average MAM streamflow. Four parameter sets were calibrated for the SRB, each using a different set of WYs. The initial set used WYs 1995-2004 and the remaining three used WYs defined as high-, medium-, and low-PIG years. Two sets of March, April, and May streamflow volume forecasts were made using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). The first set of ESP simulations used the initial parameter set. Because the PIG is defined using NDJF pressure heights, forecasts starting in March can be made using the PIG parameter set that corresponds with the year being forecasted. The second set of ESP simulations used the parameter set associated with the given PIG year. Comparison of the ESP sets indicates that more accuracy and less variability in volume forecasts may be possible when the ESP is conditioned using the PIG. This is especially true during the high-PIG years (low-flow years). ?? 2009 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS1970

Comparison of chemical hydrogeology of the carbonate peninsulas of Florida and Yucatan

Aquifers of the peninsulas of Florida and northern Yucatan are Tertiary marine carbonate formations showing many lithologic and faunal similarities. In addition, the tropical to subtropical climates of the two areas are similar, each having annual rainfall of about 1000 to 1500 mm. Despite similarities in these fundamental controls, contrasts in the hydrologic and geochemical systems are numerous and striking. For example, Florida has many rivers; Yucatan has none. Maximum thickness of fresh ground water in Florida is about 700 meters; in the Yucatan it is less than 70 meters. In Florida the gradient of the potentiometric surface averages about 1 meter per kilometer; in the Yucatan it is exceedingly low, averaging about 0.02 meter per kilometer. In Florida the chemical character of water changes systematically downgradient, owing to solution of minerals of the aquifer and corresponding increases in total dissolved solids, sulfate, calcium, and Mg-Ca ratio; in the Yucatan no downgradient change exists, and dominant processes controlling the chemical character of the water are solution of minerals and simple mixing of the fresh water and the body of salt water that underlies the peninsula at shallow depth. Hydrologic and chemical differences are caused in part by the lower altitude of the Yucatan plain. More important, however, these differences are due to the lack of an upper confining bed in Yucatan that is hydrologically equivalent to the Hawthorn Formation of Florida. The Hawthorn cover prevents recharge and confines the artesian water except where it is punctured by sinkholes, but sands and other unconsolidated sediments fill sinkholes and cavities and impede circulation. In the Yucatan the permeability of the entire section is so enormous that rainfall immediately infiltrates to the water table and then moves laterally to discharge areas along the coasts.

Florida Peninsula, Yucatan Peninsula↗

USGS2015

The effects of heterospecifics and climatic conditions on incubation behavior within a mixed-species colony

Parental incubation behavior largely influences nest survival, a critical demographic process in avian population dynamics, and behaviors vary across species with different life history breeding strategies. Although research has identified nest survival advantages of mixing colonies, behavioral mechanisms that might explain these effects is largely lacking. We examined parental incubation behavior using video-monitoring techniques on Alcatraz Island, California, of black-crowned night-heron Nycticorax nycticorax (hereinafter, night-heron) in a mixed-species colony with California gulls Larus californicus and western gulls L. occidentalis . We first quantified general nesting behaviors (i.e. incubation constancy, and nest attendance), and a suite of specific nesting behaviors (i.e. inactivity, vigilance, preening, and nest maintenance) with respect to six different daily time periods. We employed linear mixed effects models to investigate environmental and temporal factors as sources of variation in incubation constancy and nest attendance using 211 nest days across three nesting seasons (2010–2012). We found incubation constancy (percent of time on the eggs) and nest attendance (percent of time at the nest) were lower for nests that were located < 3 m from one or more gull nest, which indirectly supports the predator protection hypothesis, whereby heterospecifics provide protection allowing more time for foraging and other self-maintenance activities. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence of the influence of one nesting species on the incubation behavior of another. We also identified distinct differences between incubation constancy and nest attentiveness, indicating that these biparental incubating species do not share similar energetic constraints as those that are observed for uniparental species. Additionally, we found that variation in incubation behavior was a function of temperature and precipitation, where the strength of these effects was dependent on the time of day. Overall, these findings strengthen our understanding of incubation behavior and nest ecology of a colonial-nesting species.

California↗