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USGS1986

Potential for leakage among principal aquifers in the Memphis area, Tennessee

The principal aquifers in the Memphis area consist primarily of sand or sand and gravel, and the confining beds consist of clay, silt, sand, and lignite. The Jackson Formation and upper part of the Claiborne Group serve as the confining bed separating the water table aquifers from the Memphis Sand; the Flour Island Formation separates the Memphis Sand from the Fort Pillow Sand. Differences in total hydraulic head among the principal aquifers in the Memphis urban area result in vertical hydraulic gradients which create a potential for inter-aquifer exchange of water. Throughout this area, the gradient is downward from the water table aquifers to the Memphis Sand. In the central part of the Memphis urban area, the vertical hydraulic gradient is upward from the Fort Pillow Sand to the Memphis Sand, and in the eastern and western parts, it is downward from the Memphis Sand to the Fort Pillow Sand. The vertical distribution of carbon-14 data for water from the fluvial deposits, Memphis Sand, and Fort Pillow Sand shows an increase in the relative age of the water with depth. The areal distribution of carbon-14 data for water from the upper part of the Memphis Sand indicates that relatively recent water has been brought into the major cone of depression in the potentiometric surface of the Memphis Sand, either by horizontal movement or from downward vertical leakage. The normal, near-surface geothermal gradient in the Memphis area was determined to be 0.6 C/100 ft. Deviations from the normal geothermal gradient, in areas affected by intense pumping from the Memphis Sand, indicate that downward vertical leakage occurs from the water table aquifers through the Jackson-upper Claiborne confining bed to the Memphis Sand. The velocity of downward vertical leakage of water from the Memphis Sand through the Flour Island confining bed to the Fort Pillow Sand was determined to be 0.0066 ft/day by analysis of borehole temperature data from an observation well in the northeastern part of the Memphis area. From this velocity and the head difference between the Memphis Sand and the Fort Pillow Sand at this locality, the hydraulic conductivity of the Flour Island confining bed was determined to be 0.00114 ft/day. (Lantz-PTT)

Tennessee↗

USGS2024

Remote sensing evapotranspiration in ensemble-based framework to enhance cascade routing and re-infiltration concept in integrated hydrological model applied to support decision making

Integrated hydrological models (IHMs) help characterize the complexity of surface–groundwater interactions. The cascade routing and re-infiltration (CRR) concept, recently applied to a MODFLOW 6 IHM, improved conceptualization and simulation of overland flow processes. The CRR controls the transfer of rejected infiltration and groundwater exfiltration from upslope areas to adjacent downslope areas where that water can be evaporated, re-infiltrated back to subsurface, or discharged to streams as direct runoff. The partitioning between these three components is controlled by uncertain parameters that must be estimated. Thus, by quantifying and reducing those uncertainties, next to uncertainties of the other model parameters (e.g. hydraulic and storage parameters), the reliability of the CRR is improved and the IHM is better suited for decision support modelling, the two key objectives of this work. To this end, the remotely sensed MODIS-ET product was incorporated into the calibration process for complementing traditional hydraulic head and streamflow observations. A total of approximately 150,000 observations guided the calibration of a 13-year MODFLOW 6 IHM simulation of the Sardon catchment (Spain) with daily stress periods. The model input uncertainty was represented by grid-cell-scale parameterization, yielding approximately 500,000 unknown input parameters to be conditioned. The calibration was carried out through an iterative ensemble smoother. Incorporating the MODIS-ET data improved the CRR implementation, and reduced uncertainties associated with other model parameters. Additionally, it significantly reduced the uncertainty associated with net recharge, a critical flux for water management that cannot be directly measured and rather is commonly estimated by IHM simulations.

Sardon catchment↗

USGS2024

A benchmark dataset and workflow for landslide susceptibility zonation

Landslide susceptibility shows the spatial likelihood of landslide occurrence in a specific geographical area and is a relevant tool for mitigating the impact of landslides worldwide. As such, it is the subject of countless scientific studies. Many methods exist for generating a susceptibility map, mostly falling under the definition of statistical or machine learning. These models try to solve a classification problem: given a collection of spatial variables, and their combination associated with landslide presence or absence, a model should be trained, tested to reproduce the target outcome, and eventually applied to unseen data. Contrary to many fields of science that use machine learning for specific tasks, no reference data exist to assess the performance of a given method for landslide susceptibility. Here, we propose a benchmark dataset consisting of 7360 slope units encompassing an area of about 4,100 km 2 "> 4,100 km 2 in Central Italy. Using the dataset, we tried to answer two open questions in landslide research: (1) what effect does the human variability have in creating susceptibility models; (2) how can we develop a reproducible workflow for allowing meaningful model comparisons within the landslide susceptibility research community. With these questions in mind, we released a preliminary version of the dataset, along with a “call for collaboration,” aimed at collecting different calculations using the proposed data, and leaving the freedom of implementation to the respondents. Contributions were different in many respects, including classification methods, use of predictors, implementation of training/validation, and performance assessment. That feedback suggested refining the initial dataset, and constraining the implementation workflow. This resulted in a final benchmark dataset and landslide susceptibility maps obtained with many classification methods. Values of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve obtained with the final benchmark dataset were rather similar, as an effect of constraints on training, cross–validation, and use of data. Brier score results show larger variability, instead, ascribed to different model predictive abilities. Correlation plots show similarities between results of different methods applied by the same group, ascribed to a residual implementation dependence. We stress that the experiment did not intend to select the “best” method but only to establish a first benchmark dataset and workflow, that may be useful as a standard reference for calculations by other scholars. The experiment, to our knowledge, is the first of its kind for landslide susceptibility modeling. The data and workflow presented here comparatively assess the performance of independent methods for landslide susceptibility and we suggest the benchmark approach as a best practice for quantitative research in geosciences.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2025

Gas emissions from the Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine hydrothermal system, Clear Lake volcanic field, California

The Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine (SBMM) hydrothermal system offers insights into active degassing processes in the Clear Lake volcanic field (CLVF), a high-threat region based on its record of Holocene eruptions and proximity to populated areas. Here we present chemical and isotopic analyses of gas samples collected between 2015 and 2023, along with the first comprehensive CO 2 flux survey of the SBMM area conducted in 2023. Sampled gases are CO 2 - and CH 4 -rich (≥84 and 6 mol% in dry gas, respectively) with high mantle-derived helium contributions ( 3 He/ 4 He = 6.54–7.86 R C /R A ). Carbon isotopic compositions of CO 2 (δ 13 C = −10.0 to −9.5 ‰) and CH 4 (δ 13 C = −35.8 ‰) indicate mixed sources, with significant contributions from metamorphism of organic-rich Franciscan Complex rocks hosting the hydrothermal system. Modeling of gas compositions shows that scrubbing by interaction with air-saturated groundwater strongly influences observed compositional variability. From our CO₂ flux measurements, we estimate the deeply derived CO 2 emission rate from the SBMM hydrothermal area (0.2 km 2 ) at 240 t d −1 , comparable to many quiescently degassing volcanoes worldwide. We also provide a first-order estimate of CH 4 emissions at approximately 0.5 t d −1 . Our findings establish crucial baseline data for future volcanic monitoring efforts, enhancing detection capabilities for potential changes in this active hydrothermal system. This work contributes to the broader understanding of volatile contributions from volcanic and metamorphic sources to the global carbon budget, while highlighting the strong influence of bedrock geology on gas compositions in the CLVF.

California↗

USGS2025

A new groundwater energy transport model for the MODFLOW hydrologic simulator

Heat transport in the subsurface is an important aspect of research related to the effects of a warming climate on ecological services (i.e., cold-water refugia); the development of geothermal resources for energy banking schemes (i.e., aquifer thermal energy storage [ATES]); and the effects of temperature on other aspects of groundwater quality, such as nutrient cycling. Historically, simulation of heat transport using the MODFLOW groundwater simulator and related codes was performed by scaling the input parameters of a solute-transport model to emulate heat transport. However, that approach required additional pre- and post-processing of input and output and could not account for the variation in effective thermal storage and transport properties during transient, unsaturated flow, for example. True heat-transport capabilities in the context of MODFLOW were first introduced in a variant called USG-Transport. More recently, a new groundwater energy-transport (GWE) model type has been added to MODFLOW 6, the core version of the MODFLOW hydrologic simulator. GWE supports the simulation of heat transport on structured or unstructured grids as well as within and between features of advanced packages that represent streams, lakes, multi-aquifer wells, and the unsaturated zone. GWE is integrated within MODFLOW 6 and is accessible through the FloPy Python package and the MODFLOW 6 application programming interface (API). An example simulation demonstrates conduction between grid cells through both the water and the solid aquifer material, including thermal bleeding from saturated overburden cells into a groundwater flow field.

Groundwater↗

USGS2025

Lithium from magma to mine in an early Yellowstone hotspot caldera

Renewable energy technologies rely on the extraction of metals not historically in high demand, such as lithium (Li), for which ore deposit models are incompletely understood. One of the world’s largest Li deposits is hosted in lake sediments of the 16.4 Ma McDermitt caldera, which formed during the early stages of Yellowstone hotspot volcanism in the western United States. Eruptive and posteruptive mobility of Li are major challenges in elucidating deposit formation. Melt inclusions preserved in quartz crystals provide a means to assess pre-eruptive magmatic Li contents. Concentrations of Li determined by ion microprobe for melt inclusions in a McDermitt rhyolite lava are 400−1350 ppm, compared to 20−70 ppm Li in matrix rhyolite glasses. Synthesis with melt inclusion data for eight additional calderas demonstrates a recurrence of Li-rich rhyolitic magmas (200−2000 ppm Li) in the western part of the Yellowstone hotspot track. However, unlike the multicyclic caldera complexes with overlapping fault networks that may have compromised Li retention, the McDermitt caldera remained a closed hydrologic system throughout its evolution. Modeling indicates 100 km 3 of resurgent magma could yield 25−150 Mt Li in a magmatic fluid and supports accumulation of Li-rich magmatic fluid in a closed intracaldera lake, followed by evaporative concentration and sequestration of Li within clay minerals to generate the McDermitt deposit.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Wyoming↗

USGS2000

Water-quality conditions and relation to drainage-basin characteristics in the Scituate Reservoir Basin, Rhode Island, 1982-95

The Scituate Reservoir Basin covers about 94 square miles in north central Rhode Island and supplies more than 60 percent of the State of Rhode Island's drinking water. The basin includes the Scituate Reservoir Basin and six smaller tributary reservoirs with a combined capacity of about 40 billion gallons. Most of the basin is forested and undeveloped. However, because of its proximity to the Providence, Rhode Island, metropolitan area, the basin is subject to increasing development pressure and there is concern that this may lead to the degradation of the water supply. Selected water-quality constituent concentrations, loads, and trends in the Scituate Reservoir Basin, Rhode Island, were investigated locate parts of the basin likely responsible for exporting disproportionately large amounts of water-quality constituents to streams, rivers, and tributary reservoirs, and to determine whether water quality in the basin has been changing with time. Water-quality data collected between 1982 and 1995 by the Providence Water Supply Board PWSB) in 34 subbasins of the Scituate Reservoir Basin were analyzed. Subbasin loads and yields of total coliform bacteria, chloride, nitrate, iron, and manganese, estimated from constituent concentrations and estimated mean daily discharge records for the 1995 water year, were used to determine which subbasins contributed disproportionately large amounts of these constituents. Measurements of pH, color, turbidity, and concentrations of total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese made between 1982 and 1995 by the PWSB were evaluated for trends. To determine the potential effects of human-induced changes in drainage- basin characteristics on water quality in the basin, relations between drainage-basin characteristics and concentrations of selected water-quality constituents also were investigated. Median values for pH, turbidity, total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, and iron were largest in subbasins with predominately residential land use. Median instantaneous loads reflected drainage-basin size. However, loads normalized by drainage area (median instantaneous yields) also were largest in residential areas where point and non-point sources are likely, and in areas of poorly drained soils. Significant trends in water-quality constituents from 1982 to 1995 in the Scituate Reservoir Basin indicate that the quality of the water resources in the basin may be slowly changing. Scituate Reservoir subbasins with large amounts of residential land use showed increasing trends in alkalinity and chloride. In contrast, subbasins distributed throughout the drainage basin showed increasing trends in pH, color, nitrate, and iron concentrations, indicating that these characteristics and constituents may be affected more by atmospheric deposition. Although changing, water-quality constituent concentrations in the Scituate Reservoir Basin only occasionally exceeded Rhode Island and USEPA water-quality guidelines and standards. Result of correlation analysis between pH, color, turbidity, and concentrations total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese and land use, geology, wetlands, slope, soil drainability, and roads indicated that the percentage of wetlands, roads, and slope appear have the greatest effect on water-quality in the Scituate Reservoir Basin. The percentage of urban, residential, and commercial land use also are important, but to a lesser degree than wetlands, roads, and slope. Finally, geology appears to have the least effect on water quality compared to other drainage-basin characteristics investigated.

Rhode Island↗

USGS2025

Projecting stream water quality using Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS): An example with drought conditions in the Delaware River Basin

Future water availability depends on understanding the responses of constituent concentrations to hydrologic change. Projecting future water quality remains a methodological challenge, particularly when using discrete observations with limited temporal resolution. This study introduces Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season for Projection (WRTDS-P), a novel, computationally efficient method that enables the projection of daily stream water quality under varying hydrologic conditions using commonly available discrete monitoring data. WRTDS-P model performance was validated using 39 sites in the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and four key constituents: specific conductance (SC), nitrate (NO 3 − ), magnesium (Mg 2+ ) and calcium (Ca 2+ ). Projections were tested against holdout data from the final 1 to 5 years of each time series, demonstrating robust predictive capability, with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.67 for SC, 0.56 for NO 3 − , 0.65 for Ca 2+ , and 0.79 for Mg 2+ . Model uncertainty was correlated with indicators of hydrologic or geochemical mass-sinks, such as groundwater storage and adsorption in wetland soils. Drought scenario analyses for SC used ranges of reduced discharge including flows from the 1965 drought of record. Scenarios predicted widespread increases of SC, especially in southern DRB streams where baseline SC levels are already elevated. Fractional increases of SC were more uniformly distributed, indicating potential risk to sensitive ecosystems. Notably, drought-induced SC increases were positively correlated with interannual SC trends, indicating that hydrologic extremes could exacerbate ongoing salinization. This work provides a transferable and interpretable framework for projecting future water quality and assessing hydrologic risk to water resources and aquatic ecosystems.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2026

Reassessing water availability in the Nile River Basin using satellite-based irrigation water use accounting

Existing estimates of irrigation areas and water use in the Nile River Basin vary widely and are based on inconsistent data and methodologies. This study leverages advances in remote sensing to provide an up-to-date and consistent basin-wide reassessment of water use in the Nile River Basin. Land cover and actual evapotranspiration data from 2013 to 2022 were used to quantify irrigated areas, irrigation water use, and the average naturalized water yield. Across the basin, 7.1 million hectares of irrigated land consume an average of 72.5 ± 2.6 billion cubic meters (BCM) of blue water annually. Egypt and Sudan together account for 92% of the irrigated area and 97% of the irrigation water use. The basin’s average naturalized yield, evaluated at Dongola station, is determined to be between 108 and 114.4 ± 3.2 BCM. Although conservative, this updated analysis indicates the basin’s average naturalized yield is 14%–20% higher than the previous naturalized yield estimate (95 BCM) and 29%–36% higher than the commonly cited observed flow of 84 BCM, which is frequently treated as the total basin-wide available water. Importantly, the study underscores that the 84 BCM represents flow at the Aswan gauging station after upstream consumptive uses, not the total water available in the basin under naturalized conditions. This distinction is critical for accurate water accounting, planning, and governance in this water-scarce basin. This study demonstrates the value of open-source remote sensing resources in data-scarce regions while emphasizing the need for region specific validation and bias correction for improved accuracy.

Nile River Basin↗

USGS2024

Seismic techniques and suggested instrumentation to monitor volcanoes

Introduction Changes in the pressure or location of magma can stress or break surrounding rocks and trigger flow of nearby waters and gases, causing seismic signals, such as discrete earthquakes and tremor. These phenomena are types of seismic unrest that commonly precede eruption and can be used to forecast volcanic activity. Mass movements at the surface, including avalanches, debris flows, and lahars, may also generate seismic signals that are specifically addressed in chapter H , this volume (Thelen and others, 2024). Our focus in this chapter is to determine the levels of instrumentation recommended to produce high-quality, well-constrained seismic observations important for early warning of impending eruptions, detecting changes in ongoing eruptions, and characterizing other hazardous volcanic events. There are emerging techniques and new types of instrumentation, such as distributed acoustic sensing or rotational seismometers, that we do not consider here. These types of instrumentation show promise for monitoring but still require maturation before being considered more generally in volcano monitoring. Most of the capabilities mentioned below are universal for all types of volcanic systems, although some are best applied to stratovolcanoes with an apical single vent. In some settings, such as calderas or shield volcanoes, we must broaden coverage to include multiple possible storage regions or vent locations. As an example, Thelen (2014) discretized the long rift zones of shield volcanoes in Hawaiʻi as a set of evenly spaced “vents.” In this construct, each vent comes with recommendations, and several thousand network configurations were simulated to assess the effect on network quality levels and to determine the most efficient network design. The same process could be applied in a caldera setting or a volcanic field, where an evenly spaced grid of potential vents is considered. Localized recommendations for each unique system are beyond the scope of this report and left up to local experts to assess based on the conditions, restrictions, and requirements of each volcano.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Tracing fluid evolution during batholith and deposit formation: In-situ and bulk rock Mo isotopes from the Questa porphyry Mo deposit, New Mexico, USA

The Oligocene Questa porphyry Mo deposit, located in New Mexico, USA, is a well-characterized system that formed over 400 kyr, punctuating the 8 Myr formation of the Questa-Latir batholith. Detailed sampling of the intrusions and minerals associated with magmatichydrothermal mineralization, as well as bookending barren intrusions, allows for examination of the Mo isotope record of the deposit and its host batholith. Through this established chronologic framework, such data can yield insights into the metallogenesis of deposit formation and long-term magma genesis evolution for upper crustal magmatism. The Mo isotopic compositions of barren intrusions yield a younging trend towards lighter δ 98 Mo. However, intrusions associated with Mo deposit formation yield heavier δ 98 Mo relative to barren magmatism, by up to 2.0‰. This indicates that they were affected by an isotopically heavy and Mo-rich fluid. The in-situ data from molybdenite covers the range observed in mineralized bulk rocks. However, individual samples consistently yield Mo isotopic variations of 0.4‰ to 0.5‰. The consistency of the δ 98 Mo variation in in-situ analyses of molybdenite within hand samples and individual mineral grains is likely the result of MoS 2 crystallization in a closed system and reflects an almost complete precipitation of Mo.

New Mexico↗

USGS2026

Global pegmatite-hosted lithium, cesium, and rubidium resources: A dataset for grade and tonnage modeling

Quantitative mineral resource assessments of potential undiscovered deposits can inform future mineral supply scenarios, but their accuracy is conditional on building robust grade and tonnage models of known deposits. This study presents an up-to-date global compilation and analysis of recently discovered and original, in-situ pegmatite-hosted Li, Cs, and Rb resources prior to historic production. Our analysis yields a median tonnage of 21.2 million tons (Mt) and grade of 1.12% Li 2 O, respectively, for global Li pegmatite deposits ( n = 73). The grades and tonnages of Li pegmatite resources vary depending on the age of the bedrock host domain, pegmatite crystallization age, and primary ore mineralogy. Lithium pegmatite resources hosted in Archean to transitional Archean-Paleoproterozoic domains have the largest median tonnage (29.8 Mt; n = 38), and those hosted in Paleoproterozoic to Mesoproterozoic domains have smaller median tonnages (6.5 Mt; n = 16). Cesium deposits where pollucite is the primary ore mineral have a bimodal grade distribution, with modes of 2.40 and 0.035 wt% Cs 2 O for high- and low-grade deposits, respectively, while Rb deposits are more unimodal with a median grade of 0.247 wt% Rb 2 O. Pegmatite-hosted Cs and Rb resources have median tonnages of 7.6 and 6.3 Mt, respectively. Covariation between ore mineralogy and the degree of crustal enrichment in pegmatite-hosted deposits is diagnostic of petrogenetic differences, including melt source characteristics, magma evolution, or variable degrees of volatile solubility. The Li pegmatite compilation is suitable for fitting robust numerical models to support quantitative assessments. More well-defined Rb and Cs pegmatite resources are required for quantitative assessments, but these data provide useful information about original in-place resources for framing supply discussions.

Ore Geology Reviews↗

USGS1995

Streamflow, ground-water recharge and discharge, and characteristics of surficial deposits in Buzzards Bay Basin, southeastern Massachusetts

Streamflow measurements at 14 low-flow partial-record stations and two discontinued streamflow-gaging stations were related to concurrent streamflows at six long-term streamflow-gaging stations to estimate streamflows at selected flow durations from 50 to 99 percent for water years 1967-91. At low flows, stream discharge per square mile generally increased with increasing percentage of subbasin underlain by stratified-drift deposits. At the 70-, 90-, and 99-percent flow durations, subbasins underlain primarily by stratified-drift deposits had stream discharges per square mile at least 2, 4, and 8 times greater, respectively, than subbasins underlain primarily by till and bedrock deposits. Streamflow measured three times at the Paskamanset River showed that streamflows downstream of municipal pumped wells increased at a lower rate per unit drainage area than streamflows upstream of the pumped wells. When pumpage from wells near the river was added to measured streamflow at the most downstream station, the sum was similar to the potential streamflow at the station if its streamflow per unit area was the same as that upstream from the pumped wells. Mean ground-water recharge and discharge rates were computed from continuous records of daily mean discharge during water years 1967-91 for six streamflow-gaging stations in southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Estimates of mean ground-water recharge were 19.7 to 22.6 inches per year for stations with drainage areas primarily underlain by till and bedrock deposits, and 23.8 to 25.2 inches per year for stations with drainage areas primarily underlain by stratified-drift deposits. During drought years, annual ground-water recharge can be less than 50 percent of the mean ground-water recharge rate for water years 1967-91. Estimates of ground-water discharge rates generally were 1 to 4 inches per year less than estimates of ground-water recharge rates. Ground-water discharge-duration curves were calculated from hydrograph separation of streamflow records at the six continuous streamflow-gaging stations for water years 1967-91. When streamflows were less than the median streamflow (50-percent duration), ground-water discharges averaged 85.7 percent of the total streamflow at the six streamflow-gaging stations. Ground-water discharges were estimated at the 14 low-flow partial-record stations and two discontinued streamflow-gaging stations by multiplying streamflows at the selected flow durations from 50 to 99 percent for water years 1967-91 by 85.7 percent. Data on surficial deposits in the basin were obtained by drilling 10 wells, by conducting 12 seismic-refraction surveys, and by collecting well log data for 313 wells from consulting firms and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Management. These data indicated that a few minor corrections could be made to existing saturated thickness maps for stratified-drift deposits in Buzzards Bay Basin. Few well logs were detailed enough to estimate transmissivities; thus existing transmissivity maps were not updated for stratified-drift deposits in the basin.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2000

Stormflow chemistry in the Santa Ana River below Prado Dam and at the diversion downstream from Imperial Highway, southern California, 1995-98

The Santa Ana River drains about 2,670 square miles of the densely populated coastal area of southern California, near Los Angeles. Almost all the flow in the river, more than 200,000 acre-feet annually, is diverted into ponds where it infiltrates and recharges underlying aquifers. About 2 million people are dependent on these aquifers for water supply. Stormflow in the Santa Ana River is considered a source of "high-quality" water suitable for use as a source of ground-water recharge. To test this assumption, stormflow samples were collected at two locations--below Prado Dam and at the diversion point downstream from Imperial Highway--for 12 winter storms between 1995 and 1998. Nitrate concentrations decreased during stormflow from a median concentration of 7.8 milligrams per liter in base flow to concentrations less than 1 milligram per liter in some large storms. Concentrations of chemically reduced forms of nitrogen (nitrite, ammonia, and organic nitrogen) increased during stormflow and are the predominant forms of nitrogen in large stormflows. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations increased from a median concentration of 4.6 milligrams per liter in base flow to more than 20 milligrams per liter in some stormflows. Concentrations of DOC were especially high during the first storm of the rainy season, and large increases in DOC concentrations were measured even as a result of small early season storms that did not cause large increases in streamflow. DOC present during early season stormflow had less ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nanometers (UV 254 ) per unit of carbon than did DOC from late season stormflows. DOC in water held in storage behind Prado Dam had the highest UV 254 absorbance per unit of carbon. Maximum pesticide concentrations in stormflow did not exceed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels. Most pesticide concentrations were less than 1 microgram per liter and less than the detection limits obtained using standard drinking water analyses. Increases in concentrations of pesticides such as diazinon, malathion, and chlorpyrifos in stormflow result from runoff from urban areas downstream from Prado Dam. In general, large late season stormflows have the most pesticide detections of all stormflows sampled. Concentrations of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), a gasoline additive, during base flow were as high as 0.9 microgram per liter and concentrations decreased during stormflow. Like pesticides, the concentrations did not exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels for MTBE.

California↗

USGS2025

Improved prediction of postfire debris flows through rainfall anomaly maps

Predicting where runoff-generated debris flows might occur during rainfall on steep, recently burned terrain is challenging. Studies of mass-movement processes in unburned areas indicate that event locations are well-predicted by rainfall anomaly, R* , in which peak observed rainfall is normalized by local rainfall climatology. Here, we use remote and field methods to map debris flows triggered within the 2020 Dolan Fire burn area in coastal California, demonstrate that a short-duration R* metric predicts debris-flow occurrence more effectively than absolute peak intensity or longer-duration rainfall metrics, and show that incorporating an R* criterion into an existing debris-flow likelihood model can reduce false positive predictions and improve accuracy. We test R * at three other climatically distinct fires in California, demonstrating its utility for mapping likely debris-flow locations in different climates. We also consider how R* can benefit postfire debris-flow prediction given recent increases in climatological variability within individual burn perimeters.

Callifornia↗

USGS2025

Igneous differentiation in arcs

This chapter assesses crystallization-differentiation of convergent-margin magmas both from the standpoints of natural rock suites and from laboratory phase-equilibrium experiments. Crystallization-differentiation of dry subalkaline and alkaline basalts are summarized at the beginning for reference and context. Experiments crystallizing arc basalts through andesites at middle to upper crustal pressures (100–400 MPa), saturated either with H 2 O or mixed H 2 O-CO 2 , produce liquid lines of descent similar to arc igneous suites, with higher f O 2 s giving results closer to calc-alkaline magma series. Early enrichment of melts in SiO 2 with little or no enrichment in FeO* (total Fe as FeO) comes about by the combined effects of H 2 O suppressing crystallization of plagioclase relative to olivine, shifting plagioclase to more calcic – therefore lower SiO 2 – compositions, and suppressing silicate minerals to greater extents than Fe-rich spinel. Also contributing to SiO 2 enrichment is crystallization near the liquidus of higher proportions of olivine relative to calcic clinopyroxene, compared with MORB, but it is unclear if this is brought about by H 2 O or elevated pressure. Exhumed arc terranes, however, generally fail to expose evidence for primitive liquids having reached and differentiated at middle to upper crustal depths, at least in any abundance. Instead, most differentiation in arcs appears to take place in the lower crust or near the crust-mantle transition, and although hydrous experiments at such pressures produce liquids broadly similar to arc suites in their SiO 2 enrichment, the experimental liquids differ in becoming peraluminous at early stages of differentiation while melts have basaltic, basaltic andesitic, or andesitic SiO 2 concentrations. Crystallization of abundant calcic clinopyroxene close to the liquidus causes the high-pressure experimental liquids to become peraluminous with only small increases in SiO 2 concentration. In contrast, natural arc volcanic and plutonic suites become gradually less metaluminous with increasing SiO 2 , crossing to peraluminous at dacitic to rhyolitic SiO 2 concentrations. Hybridism, encompassing magma-mixing, assimilation of old crust, and incorporation of near-solidus melts from only shortly older deep, antecedent arc intrusions may accompany natural crystallization-differentiation, preventing melts from attaining peraluminous compositions at low-SiO 2 concentrations. If so, then nearly all arc suites are to substantial extents composites, rather than preserving simple, progressive liquid lines of descent. Some comments and assessments are also made on the participation of garnet in arc differentiation and on the production of arc batholiths.

Book chapter↗

USGS2026

Ground-motion characterization for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

We develop the ground-motion characterization (GMC) for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (NSHM-PRVI) for earthquakes in active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab regimes. Using ground-motion models (GMMs) from the Next-Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 and NGA-Subduction projects, the GMC is parameterized by scaled-backbone models for median ground motions and by independent logic trees of aleatory variability. We introduce several novel GMC features into the U.S. NSHM: (1) use of regional ground-motion data for modeling median ground motions; (2) development of scaled-backbone models for median ground motions; and (3) development of independent logic trees of aleatory variability from variance components of GMMs and computed from multiple ground-motion datasets, and incorporating regional ground-motion data effects on variability. We compute probabilistic seismic hazard curves and maps to evaluate the contributions from the GMC components and for comparison with the 2003 GMC. Contributions of the GMC to epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard are evaluated through spatial variations in epistemic uncertainty in hazard maps, comparisons between mean hazard curves and fractiles, as well as investigations of the contributions of logic-tree branches to hazard maps and curves. Comparisons between seismic hazard from the 2025 and 2003 GMCs allow examination of the changes in hazard curves and mapped values with 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The 2025 GMC exhibits modest changes in median predictions, relative to the 2003 GMC; overall, values of aleatory variability are higher, except at long periods ( ), resulting in changes to probabilistic ground motions at low probabilities of exceedance (<10% probability of exceedance in 50 years). Changes in hazard at 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years are also relatively modest (within 20%) at most sites, with the impacts from the 2025 GMC exhibiting minor reductions and increases at 0.2 and 1.0 s periods, respectively, relative to the 2003 GMC.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

USGS2026

Continental-scale prediction of hydrologic signatures and processes

Understanding how dominant hydrologic processes and their drivers vary across diverse continental-scale landscapes is critical for hydrologic modeling and water management applications. Our research addresses this question by synthesizing large-sample watershed datasets, Caravan and GAGES-II, and developing random forest models to identify patterns in hydrologic function. We assessed dominant processes by examining hydrologic signatures – summary indicators of watershed function derived from hydroclimatic time series and random forest models across 14 146 gauged United States watersheds. The results reveal clear continental-scale gradients in hydrologic processes, including baseflow, overland flow, storage, and water balance losses. Our map of dominant processes highlights, for example, the transition from baseflow to fast responses and back to baseflow along the elevation gradient from the Appalachian spine, through the Piedmont, to the Eastern Coastal Plain; a distinct outer ring around the Great Lakes region; and sharp contrasts between coastal and inland processes in the West. Variable importance analysis from random forest models show that processes in the western U.S. are primarily controlled by climate, whereas in the eastern U.S., soil, geology, and topography play larger roles, with distinct human influences apparent in urban areas. Our approach of estimating dominant processes and their drivers facilitates extending process knowledge from research watersheds to the continental scale, assessing current hydrological understanding, and evaluating hydrological model structures.

conterminous United States↗