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Coping with constraints: Achieving effective conservation with limited resources

Conservation resources have become increasingly limited and, along with social, cultural and political complexities, this shortfall frequently challenges effectiveness in conservation. Because conservation can be costly, efforts are often only initiated after a species has declined below a critical threshold and/or when statutory protection is mandated. However, implementing conservation proactively, rather than reactively, is predicted to be less costly and to decrease a species' risk of extinction. Despite these benefits, I document that the number of studies that have implemented proactive conservation around the world are far fewer than those that simply acknowledge the need for such action. I provide examples of proactive actions that can ameliorate shortfalls in funding and other assets, thus helping conservation practitioners and managers cope with the constraints that resource limitation imposes. Not all of these options are new; however, the timing of their implementation is critical for effective conservation, and the need for more proactive conservation is increasingly recognized. These actions are (1) strengthening and diversifying stakeholder involvement in conservation projects; (2) complementing time-consuming and labor-intensive demographic studies with alternative approaches of detecting declines and estimating extinction risk; and (3) minimizing future costly conservation and management by proactively keeping common species common. These approaches may not constitute a cure-all for every conservation crisis. However, given escalating rates of species' losses, perhaps a reminder that these proactive actions can reduce conservation costs, save time, and potentially thwart population declines is warranted.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

Ontogenetic development of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) and shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) from hatch through yolk absorption

Sturgeons have a complex free-embryo period extending from hatch to the initiation of exogenous feeding. Although available for some sturgeon species of the genus Acipenser , descriptions of the developmental stages of free embryos of the genus Scaphirhynchus are lacking. We characterised the ontogenetic development of pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) and shovelnose sturgeon ( S . platorynchus ) free embryos from hatch through melanin plug expulsion. The rate of development was similar between Scaphirhynchus species among free embryos from 4 pallid sturgeon and 7 shovelnose sturgeon crosses reared separately in the laboratory at a mean temperature of 17.8°C. Free embryos required a mean of 18.2 days postfertilisation (DPF; 323.5 cumulative thermal units; CTU) to reach melanin plug expulsion for pallid sturgeon and 17.9 DPF (318.3 CTU) for shovelnose sturgeon. Free embryos of both species showed overlap in lengths among developmental stages indicating that length of free embryos alone is insufficient to estimate age. Description of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon free-embryo development provides a template to develop more sophisticated models incorporating length and stage to estimate the age of field-collected specimens. Improved estimates of free-embryo developmental stage and age may aid in the identification of timing and location of spawning and better inform flow manipulation and habitat management actions tailored to increase survival of early life-stage pallid sturgeon.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗

Genetic structure and historic demography of endangered unarmoured threespine stickleback at southern latitudes signals a potential new management approach

Habitat loss, flood control infrastructure, and drought have left most of southern California and northern Baja California's native freshwater fish near extinction, including the endangered unarmoured threespine stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus williamsoni ). This subspecies, an unusual morph lacking the typical lateral bony plates of the G. aculeatus complex, occurs at arid southern latitudes in the eastern Pacific Ocean and survives in only three inland locations. Managers have lacked molecular data to answer basic questions about the ancestry and genetic distinctiveness of unarmoured populations. These data could be used to prioritize conservation efforts. We sampled G. aculeatus from 36 localities and used microsatellites and whole genome data to place unarmoured populations within the broader evolutionary context of G. aculeatus across southern California/northern Baja California. We identified three genetic groups with none consisting solely of unarmoured populations. Unlike G. aculeatus at northern latitudes, where Pleistocene glaciation has produced similar historical demographic profiles across populations, we found markedly different demographics depending on sampling location, with inland unarmoured populations showing steeper population declines and lower heterozygosity compared to low armoured populations in coastal lagoons. One exception involved the only high elevation population in the region, where the demography and alleles of unarmoured fish were similar to low armoured populations near the coast, exposing one of several cases of artificial translocation. Our results suggest that the current “management-by-phenotype” approach, based on lateral plates, is incidentally protecting the most imperilled populations; however, redirecting efforts toward evolutionary units, regardless of phenotype, may more effectively preserve adaptive potential.

Baja California, California↗

Methylmercury cycling, bioaccumulation, and export from agricultural and non-agricultural wetlands in the Yolo Bypass

This 18-month field study addresses the seasonal and spatial patterns and processes controlling methylmercury (MeHg) production, bioaccumulation, and export from natural and agricultural wetlands of the Yolo Bypass Wildlife Area (YBWA). The data were collected in conjuntion with a Proposition 40 grant from the State Water Resources Control Board in support of the development of Best Management Practices (BMP's) for reducing MeHg loading from agricultural lands in the wetland-dominated Yolo Bypass to the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The four managemenr-based questions addressed in this study were: 1. Is there a different among agricultural and managfed wetland types in terms of Me Hg dynamic (production, degradation, bioaccumulation, or export)? 2. Does water residence time influence MeHg dynamics? 3. Does the application of sulfate-based fertilizer impact MeHg production rates? 4. Does the presence (or absence) of vegetation influence MeHg production rates? Measurements of MeHg concentrations in sediment, water, and biota (plants, invertebrates, and fish) were made to assess management-level patterns in five wetland types, which included three type of shallowly-flooded agricultural wetlands (white rice, wild rice, and fallow) and two types of managed wetlands (permanently and seasonally flooded). To strengthen our understanding of the processes underlying the seasonal and spatial patterns of MeHg cycling, additional exploratory factors were measured including ancillary sediment and water quality parameters, stable isotope fractionation (oxygen, sulfur, carbon, and nitrogen), photodemethylation rates, and daily-integrated hydrologic budgets. Samples and field data were collected from May 2007 to July 2008, and nearly all sample analyses were completed by September 2008 as per the Quality Assurance Program Plan (QAPP) requirements. Although wetland type was a major factor that drove the study design, within-field hydrology also proved to be an important factor controlling aqueous MeHg and total mercury (THg) concentrations and export. Overall, agricultural wetlands exhibited higher MeHg concentrations in overlying water, sediment, and biota than did managed seasonal and permanent wetlands. This appears to be partly due to higher rates of sediment in microbial production of MeHg on agricultural wetlands during the fall through spring period. Both sulfate- and iron-reducing bacteria have been implicated in the MeHg production process, and both were demonstrably active in all wetlands studied; however, sulfate-reducing bacteria were not stimulated by the addition of sulfate-based fertilizer to agricultural wetlands, suggesting that easily-degraded (labile) organic matter, rather than sulfate, was limiting their activity in these field types. The data suggest that agriculturally-managed soils promoted MeHg production through 1) enhanced microbial activity via higher temperatures and larger pools of labile carbon, and 2) enhanced pools of microbially available inorganic divalent mercury (Hg(II)) resulting from a decrease in reduced-sulfur, solid-phase minerals under oxic or only mildly reducing conditions. MeHg mass balances were assessed by comparing filed-specific MeHg loads for inlets vs. outlet flows. The overall mass balance for MeHg in surface water during the summer irrigation period (June - September 2007) indicated little to no net MeHg export from the six agricultural wetlands taken as a whole. Of the six agricultural wetlands, there was net overall MeHg export from two fields (one fallow and one white rice) during August, and from four of the six fields (one fallow, one white rice, and two wild rice) during September) Over the entire summer irrigation period, two of the fields (one fallow and one wild rive) showed net MeHg export, and the other four fields showed wither net import or no significant change. Rates of measured photomethylation and exchange between sediment and water pools suggest that both processes may be responsible for the lack of MeHg export. Despite significant differences during winter months between fields in surface water concentrations of MeHg, MeHg loads were not calculated in mid-winter because flood waters had overtopped field boundaries and field fidelity could not be established. During the summer 2007 irrigation season, surface water out-flows from agricultural wetlands were 9%-36% of inlet flows, and evaporation rates explained most of this water loss, with infiltration likely accounting for the remainder. Unfiltered aqueous MeHg concentrations increased from <1 ng L -1 in source waters to up to 10 ng L -1 in agricultural wetland drains during the summer irrigation period. Increases in solute concentration caused by evapoconcentration were estimated by determining concentration factors (outflow/inflow) for chloride (a conservative dissolved constituent) and by measuring oxygen isotope ratios ( 18 O/ 16 O, expressed as δ 18 O) in water. Increases in MeHg concentration from inflows-to-outflows exceeded those caused by evapoconcentration on several fields during the summer irrigation season. This was especially true when initial surface water MeHg concentrations were low, as seen in the southern block of fields receiving irrigation water directly from the Toe Drain. The northern block of fields received irrigation water from Greens Lake, which included Toe Drain water plus recirculated drain water from other agricultural fields within the Yolo Bypass and west of the Yolo Bypass; as such, the northern fields showed a smaller percentage increase in MeHg concentration because initial MeHg concentrations in surface water inflows were greater than in inputs to the southern fields. Mercury concentrations in fish were greater in agricultural wetlands white rice and wild rice) than in the two permanently flooded wetlands. Additionally, Hg concentrations in biota showed a general increase from inlets to outlets withing agricultural wetlands, but not within permanent wetlands. This was particular evident in white rice fields where caged western mosquitofish at the outlets had Hg concentrations that were more than 4 times higher than in caged fish held at the inlets. Similar spatial patterns in Hg bioaccumulation in agricultural and permanent wetlands were seen for wild populations of western mosquitofish and Mississippi silversides. In contrast to fish, invertebrates, such as water-boatman (Corixidae) and back swimmers (Notonectidae), had greater Hg concentrations in permanent wetlands than in tempoarirly flooded agricultural wetlands, Fish THg concentrations were weakly correlated with water MeHg,a and not correlated with sediment MeHg. In contrast, invertebrate MeHg concentrations were more strongly correlated with sediment MeHg than with water MeHg concentrations. These results illustrate the complexity of MeHg bioaccumulation through food webs and indicate the importance of simultaneously using multiple biosentinels when monitoring MeHg production and bioaccumulation. Despite high sediment production rates and water concentrations in agricultural wetlands, MeHg export was physically limited by hydrologic export for all wetlands studied. We suggest that load reduction is maximized by limiting water throughout, but that on-site biota exposure is maximized by this loner water residence time. While field-specific hydrologic loads could not be fully quantified during flood conditions in February 2008, we suggest that the primary period of MeHg export from Yolo Bypass Wildlife Area is during those winter flooding periods when overall microbial activity and MeHg production in agricultural soils is fueled by the decomposition of rice straw, and when hydrologic flowthrough is maximal. Local stakeholders participated in two workshops related to this study, demonstrating an interest in understanding factors controlling MeHg production, export, and bioaccumulation. The results of this field study show that permanently flooded, naturally vegetated wetlands are unlikely to a large source of MeHg production within the YBWA, in contrast with agriculturally-managed wetlands. MeHg loading to Toe Drain waters of the Yolo Bypass may be reduced by lowering rated of hydrologic export from agricultural wetlands during the growing season and especially during rice harvest, However, under these water-holding conditions, biota living within agricultural wetlands may thus be exposed to higher MeHg concentrations in surface water, As observed in this study, rapid bioacculumaltion over a 2-month period led to MeHg concentrations in invertebrates and fish more than 6 and 11 times higher, respectively, than proposed TMDL target values to protect wildlife (0.03 ppm ww). The results of this field study, together with the information from YBWA stakeholders, provide a more definitive understanding of how MeHg cycling and bioaccumulation respond to habitat differences and specific management practices. These results directly address 4 core components of CBDA's Mercury Strategy for the Bay-Delta Ecosystem (Wiener et al., 2003a): a) Quantification and evaluation of THg and MeHg sources, b) Quantification of effects of ecosystem restoration on MeHg exposure, c) Assessment of ecological risk, and d) Identification and testing of potential management approaches for reducing MeHg contamination. In addition, the quantitative results reported here assess the effect of current land use practices in the Yolo Bypass MeHg production, bioaccumulation and export, and provide process-based advice towards achieving current goals of the RWQCB-CVR's Sacramento -- San Joaquin Delta Estuary TMDL for Methyl & Total Mercury (Wood et al., 2010b). Further work is necessary to evaluate biotic exposure in the Yolo Bypass Wildlife Area at higher trophic levels (e.g. birds), to quantify winter hydrologic flux of MeHg to the larger Delta ecosystem, and to evaluate rice straw management options to limit labile carbon supplies to surface sediment during winter months. In summary, agricultural management of rice fields -- specifically the periodic flooding and production of easily degraded organic matter -- promotes the production of MeHg beyond rates seen in naturally vegetated wetlands, whether seasonally or permanently flooded., The exported load from MeHg from these agricultural wetlands may be controlled by limiting hydrologic export from fields to enhance on-site MeHg removal processes, but the tradeoff is that this impoundement increases Me Hg exposure to resident organisms.

California↗

Beaver dam analogs did not improve beaver translocation outcomes in a desert river

Stream restoration programs employ beaver-related restoration techniques, including beaver translocations and installation of beaver dam analogs (BDA), to create complex in-stream habitat. We investigated whether BDA installations improved the probability of translocated beavers surviving and colonizing a section of a degraded desert river. We translocated beavers fitted with tracking devices to the Price River, Utah, United States, for 2 years before and after BDAs were installed. We monitored survival and site fidelity of beavers to estimate apparent survival ( φ ), using model selection to evaluate models with BDA, flow, and other factors hypothesized to relate to apparent survival. We found similar apparent survival 8 weeks post-release of pre-BDA ( φ = 0.50 ± 0.08 SE) and post-BDA beavers ( φ = 0.41 ± 0.06 SE). There were 15 predator-caused mortalities and 39 beavers emigrated out of the study site. Top models indicated apparent survival was negatively related to mean flow. Of the 70 BDAs constructed, beaver activity was detected on only two structures and the number of intact natural dams decreased due to monsoon floods. Our results suggest BDAs may not improve survival and site fidelity of translocated beavers in desert river systems. Instead, the dynamic flow of desert rivers and negative relationship between flow and apparent survival suggest the timing of release may be an important consideration for successful beaver translocation. Additional research is needed to understand how habitat, food availability, individual behavior, and resident conspecifics influence beaver translocation success.

Utah↗

Estimates of Nutrient Loading by Ground-Water Discharge into the Lynch Cove Area of Hood Canal, Washington

Low dissolved oxygen concentrations in the waters of Hood Canal threaten marine life in late summer and early autumn. Oxygen depletion in the deep layers and landward reaches of the canal is caused by decomposition of excess phytoplankton biomass, which feeds on nutrients (primarily nitrogen compounds) that enter the canal from various sources, along with stratification of the water column that prevents mixing and replenishment of oxygen. Although seawater entering the canal is the largest source of nitrogen, ground-water discharge to the canal also contributes significant quantities, particularly during summer months when phytoplankton growth is most sensitive to nutrient availability. Quantifying ground-water derived nutrient loads entering an ecologically sensitive system such as Hood Canal is a critical component of constraining the total nutrient budget and ultimately implementing effective management strategies to reduce impacts of eutrophication. The amount of nutrients entering Hood Canal from ground water was estimated using traditional and indirect measurements of ground-water discharge, and analysis of nutrient concentrations. Ground-water discharge to Hood Canal is variable in space and time because of local geology, variable hydraulic gradients in the ground-water system adjacent to the shoreline, and a large tidal range of 3 to 5 meters. Intensive studies of ground-water seepage and hydraulic-head gradients in the shallow, nearshore areas were used to quantify the freshwater component of submarine ground-water discharge (SGD), whereas indirect methods using radon and radium geochemical tracers helped quantify total SGD and recirculated seawater. In areas with confirmed ground-water discharge, shore-perpendicular electrical resistivity profiles, continuous electromagnetic seepage-meter measurements, and continuous radon measurements were used to visualize temporal variations in ground-water discharge over several tidal cycles. The results of these field investigations show that ground-water discharge into the Lynch Cove area of Hood Canal is highly dynamic and strongly affected by the large tidal range. In areas with a steep shoreline and steep hydraulic gradient, ground-water discharge is spatially concentrated in or near the intertidal zone, with increased discharge during low tide. Topographically flat areas with weak hydraulic gradients had more spatial variability, including larger areas of seawater recirculation and more widely dispersed discharge. Measured total-dissolved-nitrogen concentrations in ground water ranged from below detection limits to 2.29 milligrams per liter and the total load entering Lynch Cove was estimated to be approximately 98 ? 10.3 metric tons per year (MT/yr). This estimate is based on net freshwater seepage rates from Lee-type seepage meter measurements and can be compared to estimates derived from geochemical tracer mass balance estimates (radon and radium) of 231 to 749 MT/yr, and previous water-mass-balance estimates (14 to 47 MT/ yr). Uncertainty in these loading estimates is introduced by complex biogeochemical cycles of relevant nutrient species, the representativeness of measurement sites, and by energetic dynamics at the coastal aquifer-seawater interface caused by tidal forcing.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The future is now: Amplicon sequencing and sequence capture usher in the conservation genomics era

The genomics revolution has initiated a new era of population genetics where genome-wide data are frequently used to understand complex patterns of population structure and selection. However, the application of genomic tools to inform management and conservation has been somewhat rare outside a few well studied species. Fortunately, two recently developed approaches, amplicon sequencing and sequence capture, have the potential to significantly advance the field of conservation genomics. Here, amplicon sequencing refers to highly multiplexed PCR followed by high-throughput sequencing (e.g., GTseq), and sequence capture refers to using capture probes to isolate loci from reduced-representation libraries (e.g., Rapture). Both approaches allow sequencing of thousands of individuals at relatively low costs, do not require any specialized equipment for library preparation, and generate data that can be analyzed without sophisticated computational infrastructure. Here, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method and provide a decision framework for geneticists who are looking to integrate these methods into their research programme. While it will always be important to consider the specifics of the biological question and system, we believe that amplicon sequencing is best suited for projects aiming to genotype <500 loci on many individuals (>1,500) or for species where continued monitoring is anticipated (e.g., long-term pedigrees). Sequence capture, on the other hand, is best applied to projects including fewer individuals or where >500 loci are required. Both of these techniques should smooth the transition from traditional genetic techniques to genomics, helping to usher in the conservation genomics era.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

Crowding, climate, and the case for social distancing among trees

In an emerging era of megadisturbance, bolstering forest resilience to wildfire, insects, and drought has become a central objective in many western forests. Climate has received considerable attention as a driver of these disturbances, but few studies have examined the complexities of climate–vegetation–disturbance interactions. Current strategies for creating resilient forests often rely on retrospective approaches, seeking to impart resilience by restoring historical conditions to contemporary landscapes, but historical conditions are becoming increasingly unattainable amidst modern bioclimatic conditions. What becomes an appropriate benchmark for resilience when we have novel forests, rapidly changing climate, and unprecedented disturbance regimes? We combined two longitudinal datasets—each representing some of the most comprehensive spatially explicit, annual tree mortality data in existence—in a post-hoc factorial design to examine the nonlinear relationships between fire, climate, forest spatial structure, and bark beetles. We found that while prefire drought elevated mortality risk, advantageous local neighborhoods could offset these effects. Surprisingly, mortality risk ( P m ) was higher in crowded local neighborhoods that burned in wet years ( P m = 42%) compared with sparse neighborhoods that burned during drought ( P m = 30%). Risk of beetle attack was also increased by drought, but lower conspecific crowding impeded the otherwise positive interaction between fire and beetle attack. Antecedent fire increased drought-related mortality over short timespans (<7 years) but reduced mortality over longer intervals. These results clarify interacting disturbance dynamics and provide a mechanistic underpinning for forest restoration strategies. Importantly, they demonstrate the potential for managed fire and silvicultural strategies to offset climate effects and bolster resilience to fire, beetles, and drought.

California↗

Simulating past and future fire impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems

Worldwide, large wildfires are becoming increasingly common, leading to economic damages and threatening ecosystems and human health. Under future climate change, more frequent fire disturbance may push ecosystems into non-forested alternative stable states. Fire-prone ecosystems such as those in the Mediterranean Basin are expected to be particularly vulnerable, but the position of tipping points is unclear. We compare long-term palaeoecological data from Sardinia with output from a process-based dynamic vegetation model to investigate the mechanisms controlling the complex interactions between fire, climate, and vegetation in the past and the future. Our results show that past vegetation changes from Erica -shrublands to mixed evergreen-broadleaved Quercus ilex -dominated forests were driven by a climate-induced fire regime shift. By simulating vegetation dynamics under varying fire regimes, we could reproduce Holocene vegetation trajectories and mechanistically identify tipping points. Without an immediate reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, we simulate future expansion of fire-prone Mediterranean maquis and increasing fire occurrence. Similarly, high anthropogenic ignition frequencies and plantations of non-native, highly flammable trees could induce a shift to fire-adapted Erica shrublands. However, our simulations indicate that if global warming can be kept below 2°C, Quercus ilex forests will be able to persist and effectively reduce fire occurrences and impacts, making them a valuable restoration target in Mediterranean ecosystems. Synthesis . By combining long-term records of ecosystem change with a dynamic vegetation model, we show that past climate-driven fire regime shifts were the main driver of vegetation change, creating alternative stable states that persisted over centuries. Projected future climate change exceeding Holocene variability leads to pronounced vegetation changes and increased fire risks in our simulations, requiring new fire management strategies to maintain current ecosystem services.

Journal of Ecology↗

Groundwater and surface-water interactions in the Lower Duwamish Waterway, Seattle, Washington

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology), conducted a study to describe the current understanding of the regional groundwater system of the lower Duwamish River valley and groundwater and surface-water interactions in the lower Duwamish Waterway. The lower Duwamish Waterway is the final 5-mile (mi) reach of the Duwamish River before it empties into Elliott Bay in Puget Sound near Seattle, Washington. A nearshore site (hereinafter referred to as “Nearshore Site” to distinguish the particular site from general discussions of nearshore areas) along the western shoreline of the Duwamish River, about 1.5 mi upstream from the river mouth, was selected for focused groundwater data collection by USGS. Data loggers were deployed in seven groundwater wells and one stilling well in the Duwamish River to measure specific conductance, temperature, and depth at 15-minute intervals for a period of about 2 years. At the Nearshore Site during 2020–22, water levels in the shallow wells were 3–8 feet (ft) higher than water levels in the deep wells, providing evidence for a low-permeability layer between the shallow and deep aquifers in this area. The shallow wells had a pronounced seasonal variability, with high water levels in winter and low water levels in summer. Data from the deep wells showed far less seasonal variability, with slight increases in winter and a near-constant water level from spring to autumn. The deep wells had a strong hydraulic connection to the Duwamish River, as evidenced by the synchronous water-level variability during the tidal cycle, whereas the shallow wells had minimal to no tidal response. The potentiometric maps developed for the Nearshore Site and surrounding areas indicate large differences in groundwater-flow directions for the shallow and deep aquifers at low and high tides. For the shallow aquifer, flow is toward the lower Duwamish Waterway near the Nearshore Site, regardless of the tidal condition. For the deep aquifer, a potentiometric trough forms parallel to the shoreline during high tide, indicating that groundwater flow converges from the uplands to the west and the Duwamish River to the east. The geometry of the potentiometric surfaces between the nearshore-most well and the shoreline is complex and is further confounded by intermittent shoreline armoring and other buried infrastructure, which could serve as either a barrier or a conduit to flow. Groundwater and surface-water interactions in the lower Duwamish Waterway are inherently complex as a result of three overarching factors. First, water levels in the lower reaches of the Duwamish River vary daily by 11–16 ft because of tides from Puget Sound, which create large swings in the hydraulic gradient in the nearshore groundwater system. Second, the density and chemical composition of water in the Duwamish River change daily with the tides and seasonally, which constrains how river water entering the nearshore sediments interacts with discharging groundwater. Third, the nearshore subsurface and shoreline conditions are heterogenous because of extensive shoreline armoring over the past century, which governs the flow of groundwater and infiltrating river water. These unique features of groundwater and surface-water interactions in the lower Duwamish Waterway thus govern the transport of terrestrial contaminants to the lower Duwamish Waterway. Furthermore, the heterogenous aquifer properties in the lower Duwamish Waterway contribute to spatially and temporally dynamic contaminant-transport processes.

Washington↗

Landscape-level impact of tropical forest loss and fragmentation on bird occurrence in eastern Guatemala

Tropical forest destruction and fragmentation of habitat patches may reduce population persistence at the landscape level. Given the complex nature of simultaneously evaluating the effects of these factors on biotic populations, statistical presence/absence modelling has become an important tool in conservation biology. This study uses logistic regression to evaluate the independent effects of tropical forest cover and fragmentation on bird occurrence in eastern Guatemala. Logistic regression models were constructed for 10 species with varying response to habitat alteration. Predictive variables quantified forest cover, fragmentation and their interaction at three different radii (200, 500 and 1000 m scales) of 112 points where presence of target species was determined. Most species elicited a response to the 1000 m scale, which was greater than most species’ reported territory size. Thus, their presence at the landscape scale is probably regulated by extra-territorial phenomena, such as dispersal. Although proportion of forest cover was the most important predictor of species’ presence, there was strong evidence of area-independent and -dependent fragmentation effects on species presence, results that contrast with other studies from northernmost latitudes. Species’ habitat breadth was positively correlated with AIC model values, indicating a better fit for species more restricted to tropical forest. Species with a narrower habitat breadth also elicited stronger negative responses to forest loss. Habitat breadth is thus a simple measure that can be directly related to species’ vulnerability to landscape modification. Model predictive accuracy was acceptable for 4 of 10 species, which were in turn those with narrower habitat breadths.

Cerro San Gil Watershed Protection Reserve↗

Primary food resources in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a complex mosaic of tidal freshwater habitats, is now a focus of ecosystem rehabilitation because of changes in critical functions associated with its geographic location at the landestuary interface. One of these functions is the production, transport, and transformation of organic matter that constitutes the “primary food supply,” that is, the food supply to the base of the food web. Interest in the primary food supply is motivated by evidence for sub-optimal food quantity or quality at trophic levels that support fish recruitment, including primary consumers such as clams, mysids, cladocerans, rotifers, and native copepods. We used the historical data set to examine the magnitudes of the most important organic matter sources for the Delta, the factors underlying their interannual and longer-term variability, and the implications of ecosystem rehabilitation actions for these sources. Here, we present a summary of the first phase of the analysis, including the quantitative importance of different organic matter sources and some of the hydrological controls on their year-to-year variability. The full report of this first phaseincluding data sources, the methods of calculation, and references, is in press elsewhere (Jassby and Cloern forthcoming). The historical data analysis is part of a larger project in which measurements of stable isotopes and biogeochemical markers, and experiments on organic matter biodegradation and zooplankton growth rates, are being used collectively to define the primary food resources and their quality.

California↗

Decomposition of heterogeneous organic matterand its long-term stabilization in soils

Soil organic matter is a complex mixture of material with heterogeneous biological, physical, and chemical properties. Decomposition models represent this heterogeneity either as a set of discrete pools with different residence times or as a continuum of qualities. It is unclear though, whether these two different approaches yield comparable predictions of organic matter dynamics. Here, we compare predictions from these two different approaches and propose an intermediate approach to study organic matter decomposition based on concepts from continuous models implemented numerically. We found that the disagreement between discrete and continuous approaches can be considerable depending on the degree of nonlinearity of the model and simulation time. The two approaches can diverge substantially for predicting long-term processes in soils. Based on our alternative approach, which is a modification of the continuous quality theory, we explored the temporal patterns that emerge by treating substrate heterogeneity explicitly. The analysis suggests that the pattern of carbon mineralization over time is highly dependent on the degree and form of nonlinearity in the model, mostly expressed as differences in microbial growth and efficiency for different substrates. Moreover, short-term stabilization and destabilization mechanisms operating simultaneously result in long-term accumulation of carbon characterized by low decomposition rates, independent of the characteristics of the incoming litter. We show that representation of heterogeneity in the decomposition process can lead to substantial improvements in our understanding of carbon mineralization and its long-term stability in soils.

Ecological Monographs↗

Causal mechanisms of soil organic matter decomposition: Deconstructing salinity and flooding impacts in coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands significantly contribute to global carbon storage potential. Sea-level rise and other climate change-induced disturbances threaten coastal wetland sustainability and carbon storage capacity. It is critical that we understand the mechanisms controlling wetland carbon loss so that we can predict and manage these resources in anticipation of climate change. However, our current understanding of the mechanisms that control soil organic matter decomposition, in particular the impacts of elevated salinity, are limited, and literature reports are contradictory. In an attempt to improve our understanding of these complex processes, we measured root and rhizome decomposition and developed a causal model to identify and quantify the mechanisms that influence soil organic matter decomposition in coastal wetlands that are impacted by sea-level rise. We identified three causal pathways: 1) a direct pathway representing the effects of flooding on soil moisture, 2) a direct pathway representing the effects of salinity on decomposer microbial communities and soil biogeochemistry, and 3) an indirect pathway representing the effects of salinity on litter quality through changes in plant community composition over time. We used this model to test the effects of alternate scenarios on the response of tidal freshwater forested wetlands and oligohaline marshes to short- and long-term climate-induced disturbances of flooding and salinity. In tidal freshwater forested wetlands, the model predicted less decomposition in response to drought, hurricane salinity pulsing, and long-term sea-level rise. In contrast, in the oligohaline marsh, the model predicted no change in response to sea-level rise, and increased decomposition following a drought or a hurricane salinity pulse. Our results show that it is critical to consider the temporal scale of disturbance and the magnitude of exposure when assessing the effects of salinity intrusion on carbon mineralization in coastal wetlands. Here we identify three causal mechanisms that can reconcile disparities between long-term and short-term salinity impacts on organic matter decomposition.

Ecology↗

Effects of northern bobwhite habitat management on avian species of conservation concern

The umbrella species concept is often used as a tool to guide management decisions and focus efforts towards one focal species whose habitat needs overlap that of other species. We assessed this concept in the context of an agriculturally dominant landscape using one of the most well-studied avian species in North America as a target for conservation efforts: Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ). This species is often viewed as an umbrella species for grassland and shrubland bird conservation throughout its native range due to its complex, year-round habitat requirements. We assessed the influence of Northern Bobwhite habitat management on six songbird species of conservation concern in Iowa by evaluating similarities and differences in habitat associations between each species. Our objectives were to (1) assess which vegetation characteristics were most strongly associated with Northern Bobwhite occupancy and (2) evaluate whether those characteristics were also associated with abundance of the focal songbird species. We used occupancy and N-mixture models to assess relationships between vegetation characteristics and Northern Bobwhite occupancy and songbird abundance, respectively. We found that the vegetation characteristics most strongly associated with Northern Bobwhite occupancy probability were the amounts of closed canopy forest, early successional woody vegetation, non-vegetated areas, and percent cover of bare ground. We found that for some of these covariates, including the amounts of forest and non-vegetated area, the effect on focal songbird species abundance aligned with Northern Bobwhite occupancy. For others, including the amount of early successional woody vegetation, the effects differed. This assessment of overlap and variability in habitat associations suggests that Northern Bobwhite-targeted management can provide benefits to other grassland and shrubland birds, but may also come with some trade-offs. This work adds to existing literature, further highlighting the nuances of the umbrella species concept in that land management benefits from the assessment of trade-offs and inclusion of local community dynamics.

Iowa↗

Influence of topographic complexity on solar insolation estimates for the Colorado River, Grand Canyon, AZ

Rugged topography along the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons, exemplifies features common to canyon-bound streams and rivers of the arid southwest. Physical relief influences regulated river systems, especially those that are altered, and have become partially reliant on aquatic primary production. We measured and modeled instantaneous solar flux in a topographically complex environment to determine where differences in daily, seasonal and annual solar insolation occurred in this river system. At a system-wide scale, topographic complexity generates a spatial and temporal mosaic of varying solar insolation. This solar variation is a predictable consequence of channel orientation, geomorphology, elevation angles and viewshed. Modeled estimates for clear conditions corresponded closely with observed measurements for both instantaneous photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD: ??mol m-2 s-1) and daily insolation levels (relative error 2.3%, CI ??0.45, S.D. 0.3, n = 29,813). Mean annual daily insolation levels system-wide were estimated to be 36 mol m-2 d -1 (17.5 S.D.), and seasonally varied on average from 13.4-57.4 mol m-2 d-1, for winter and summer, respectively. In comparison to identical areas lacking topographic effect (idealized plane), mean daily insolation levels were reduced by 22% during summer, and as much as 53% during winter. Depending on outlying topography, canyon bound regions having east-west (EW) orientations had higher seasonal variation, averaging from 8.1 to 61.4 mol m-2 d-1, for winter and summer, respectively. For EW orientations, 70% of mid-channel sites were obscured from direct incidence during part of the year; and of these sites, average diffuse light conditions persisted for 19.3% of the year (70.5 days), and extended upwards to 194 days. This predictive model has provided an initial quantitative step to estimate and determine the importance of autotrophic production for this ecosystem, as well as a broader application for other canyon systems. ?? 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Ecological Modelling↗

Comparison of alternative spatial resolutions in the application of a spatially distributed biogeochemical model over complex terrain

Spatially distributed biogeochemical models may be applied over grids at a range of spatial resolutions, however, evaluation of potential errors and loss of information at relatively coarse resolutions is rare. In this study, a georeferenced database at the 1-km spatial resolution was developed to initialize and drive a process-based model (Forest-BGC) of water and carbon balance over a gridded 54976 km2 area covering two river basins in mountainous western Oregon. Corresponding data sets were also prepared at 10-km and 50-km spatial resolutions using commonly employed aggregation schemes. Estimates were made at each grid cell for climate variables including daily solar radiation, air temperature, humidity, and precipitation. The topographic structure, water holding capacity, vegetation type and leaf area index were likewise estimated for initial conditions. The daily time series for the climatic drivers was developed from interpolations of meteorological station data for the water year 1990 (1 October 1989-30 September 1990). Model outputs at the 1-km resolution showed good agreement with observed patterns in runoff and productivity. The ranges for model inputs at the 10-km and 50-km resolutions tended to contract because of the smoothed topography. Estimates for mean evapotranspiration and runoff were relatively insensitive to changing the spatial resolution of the grid whereas estimates of mean annual net primary production varied by 11%. The designation of a vegetation type and leaf area at the 50-km resolution often subsumed significant heterogeneity in vegetation, and this factor accounted for much of the difference in the mean values for the carbon flux variables. Although area wide means for model outputs were generally similar across resolutions, difference maps often revealed large areas of disagreement. Relatively high spatial resolution analyses of biogeochemical cycling are desirable from several perspectives and may be particularly important in the study of the potential impacts of climate change.

Ecological Modelling↗

An agent-based model to quantify energetics, movement and habitat selection of mid-continent mallards in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

The dynamics of wintering waterfowl populations at the landscape scale are the result of complex interactions of environmental, behavioral and energetic drivers. Agent-based models provide a method to directly link these factors in a spatially explicit framework and allow the emergence of patterns from the aggregation of individual agent actions. We adapted the Spatially-explicit Waterbird Agent-based Model Program (SWAMP), originally developed for waterfowl in central California, to simulate a basin-scale population of mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ) wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley over a four-month period (November–February). Simulated agents move within the landscape, foraging on areas made available based on a probabilistic inundation status, and converting food resources to endogenous energy. The model uses a high-resolution map of eastern Arkansas waterfowl habitats and incorporates a hierarchical habitat selection system that enables mallards to relocate at increasing scales in response to changing food availability. We validated the performance of modeled mallard body condition and behavioral metrics under a range of environmental conditions against expected outcomes derived from empirical data and found that the simulation produced realistic representations of changes in flight distances, energy expenditure, lipid storage, and foraging habitat use in response to depleting food resources over time. We discuss the model's applicability as a tool to quantify waterfowl response to a range of environmental conditions and to evaluate scenarios of landscape composition and configuration in the context of waterfowl population management.

Ecological Modelling↗