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Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species’ distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994–1999 and 2003–2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

Ecology↗

Drivers and consequences of alternative landscape futures on wildlife distributions in New England, United States

In an era of rapid climate and land transformation, it is increasingly important to understand how future changes impact natural systems. Scenario studies can offer the structure and perspective needed to understand the impacts of change and help inform management and conservation decisions. We implemented a scenario-based approach to assess how two high impact drivers of landscape change influence the distributions of managed wildlife species (n = 10) in the New England region of the northeastern United States. We used expert derived species distribution models (SDMs) and scenarios developed by the New England Landscape Futures Project (NELFP) to estimate how species distributions change under various trajectories (n = 5) of landscape change. The NELFP scenarios were built around two primary drivers – Socio-Economic Connectedness (SEC) and Natural Resource Planning and Innovation (NRPI) – and provide plausible alternatives for how the New England region may change over fifty years (2010 to 2060). Our models generally resulted in species occurrence and richness declines by 2060. The majority of species (7 of 10) experienced declines in regional occurrence for all NELFP scenarios, and one species experienced a projected increase in mean regional occurrence for all scenarios. Our results indicate that the NRPI and SEC drivers strongly influenced projected distribution changes compared to baseline projections. NRPI had a greater impact on distribution change for five species (coyote, moose, striped skunk, white-tailed deer, and wild turkey), while SEC had a greater impact on four species (American black bear, bobcat, raccoon, and red fox); one species (gray fox) was equally influenced by both NRPI and SEC. These results emphasize the importance of integrating both natural resource planning and socio-economic factors when addressing issues of distribution change and offer insights that can inform proactive management and conservation planning.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Demographic estimation methods for plants with dormancy

Demographic studies in plants appear simple because unlike animals, plants do not run away. Plant individuals can be marked with, e.g., plastic tags, but often the coordinates of an individual may be sufficient to identify it. Vascular plants in temperate latitudes have a pronounced seasonal life–cycle, so most plant demographers survey their study plots once a year often during or shortly after flowering. Life–states are pervasive in plants, hence the results of a demographic study for an individual can be summarized in a familiar encounter history, such as 0VFVVF000. A zero means that an individual was not seen in a year and a letter denotes its state for years when it was seen aboveground. V and F here stand for vegetative and flowering states, respectively. Probabilities of survival and state transitions can then be obtained by mere counting. Problems arise when there is an unobservable dormant state, i.e., when plants may stay belowground for one or more growing seasons. Encounter histories such as 0VF00F000 may then occur where the meaning of zeroes becomes ambiguous. A zero can either mean a dead or a dormant plant. Various ad hoc methods in wide use among plant ecologists have made strong assumptions about when a zero should be equated to a dormant individual. These methods have never been compared among each other. In our talk and in Kéry et al. (submitted), we show that these ad hoc estimators provide spurious estimates of survival and should not be used. In contrast, if detection probabilities for aboveground plants are known or can be estimated, capturerecapture (CR) models can be used to estimate probabilities of survival and state–transitions and the fraction of the population that is dormant. We have used this approach in two studies of terrestrial orchids, Cleistes bifaria (Kéry et al., submitted) and Cypripedium reginae (Kéry & Gregg, submitted) in West Virginia, U.S.A. For Cleistes, our data comprised one population with a total of 620 marked ramets over 10 years, and for Cypripedium , two populations with 98 and 258 marked ramets over 11 years. We chose the ramet (= single stem or shoot) as the demographic unit of our study since there was no way distinguishing among genets (genet = genetical individual, i.e., the “individual” that animal ecologists are mostly concerned with). This will introduce some non–independence into the data, which can nevertheless be dealt with easily by correcting variances for overdispersion. Using ramets instead of genets has the further advantage that individuals can be assigned to a state such as flowering or vegetative in an unambiguous manner. This is not possible when genets are the demographic units. In all three populations, auxiliary data was available to show that detection probability of aboveground plants was m 0.995 We fitted multistate models in program MARK by specifying three states (D, V, F), even though the dormant state D does not occur in the encounter histories. Detection probability is fixed at 1 for the vegetative (V) and the flowering state (F) and at zero for the dormant state (D). Rates of survival and of state transitions as well as slopes of covariate relationships can be estimated and LRT or the AIC machinery be used to select among models. To estimate the fraction of the population in the unobservable dormant state, the encounter histories are collapsed to 0 (plant not observed aboveground) and 1 (plant observed aboveground). The Cormack–Jolly–Seber model without constraints on detection probability is used to estimate detection probability, the complement of which is the estimated fraction of the population in the dormant state. Parameter identifiability is an important issue in multi state models. We used the Catchpole–Morgan–Freeman approach to determine which parameters are estimable in principle in our multi state models. Most of 15 tested models were indeed estimable with the notable exception of the most general model, which has fully interactive state- and time-dependent survival and state transition rates. This model would become identifiable if at least some plants would be excavated in years when they do not show up aboveground. Our analyses for three analyzed populations of Cleistes and Cypripedium yielded annual ramet survival rates ranging from 0.86–0.96. Estimates of the average fraction dormant ranged from 0.02–0.30, but with up to half a population in the dormant state in some years. Ultrastructural modeling enables interesting hypotheses to be tested about the relationships of demographic rates with climatic covariates for instance. Such covariate modeling makes the CR approach particularly interesting for evolutionary–ecological questions about, e.g., the adaptive significance of the dormant state.

Animal Biodiversity and Conservation↗

The role of infectious disease in marine communities

Marine ecologists recognize that infectious diseases play and important role in ocean ecosystems. This role may have increased in some host taxa over time (Ward and Lafferty 2004). We begin this chapter by introducing infectious agents and their relationships with their hosts in marine systems. We then put infectious disease agents with their hosts in marine systems. We then put infectious disease agents in the perspective of marine biodiversity and discuss the various factors that affect parasites. Specifically, we introduce some basin epidemiological concepts, including the effects of stress and free-living diversity on parasites. Following this, we give brief consideration to communities of parasites within their hosts, particularly as these can lead to general insights into community ecology. We also give examples of how infectious diseases affect host populations, scaling up to marine communities. Finally, we present examples of marine infectious disease that impair conservation and fisheries.

Book chapter↗

Toward a theory of connectivity among depressional wetlands of the great plains

Functions of inland, freshwater depressional wetlands of the Great Plains are driven by natural disturbance in the form of fluctuating water levels or shifts between wet and dry ecological states. The geographically isolated prairie potholes and playas form broad-scale systems or networks that support biodiversity and provide ecological goods and services. Anthropogenic disturbance, primarily in the form of sediment accretion, results in the functional loss of individual wetlands from the system. The ecological value of individual depressional wetlands has been documented, but there has not been any assessment of the contribution of individual wetlands to the system. Network analysis can be used to prioritize the contribution of individual wetlands to the system for the purpose of conservation and management. We utilized the playas wetland system of the Southern High Plains to illustrate this concept. Playas form a redundant, resilient network based on natural disturbance (i.e., inundation patterns) across broad spatial and temporal scales that support biodiversity. Loss of individual playas to sediment accretion is causing the network to break down, resulting in the need for a greater proportion of inundated playas to provide the original level of ecological goods and services. The effects of decreased functional connectivity due to anthropogenic disturbance at the system scale portend negative effects on movement strategies, dynamics and persistence of local populations, decreased biodiversity, and, ultimately, the redistribution and system-wide extinction of playa wetland-dependent populations and loss of associated functions.

Book chapter↗

The natural history of Caroline Atoll, Southern Line Islands. Part II. Seabirds, other terrestrial animals, and conservation

conclusion: Lushly wooded Caroline Atoll, with the majority of its 39 islets (399 ha of land) either in near-pristine condition or having recovered remarkably from past disturbance, is one of the least spoiled atolls in the Pacific. Uninhabited, it harbors plant ecosystems and breeding seabirds (Pt. II) of national and international importance. Its marine and terrestrial ecosystems are prime outdoor ecological laboratories for research on geological processes including ground water, sea level changes, the dynamics of motu formation, fish poisoning, and numerous facets of ecology including plant succession and Pisonia growth rates. Caroline boasts prime coral reefs thickly studded with Tridacna clams, substantial numbers of coconut crabs, breeding sites for green turtles, wintering grounds for shorebirds including the rare Bristle-thighed Curlew, ancient Tuamotuan marae, and a crystalline, unpolluted lagoon. The variety, abundance, and quality of its flora and fauna qualify it for status as an officially recognized international preserve (Pt. II, Sect. G). Efforts toward its conservation have thus far been unsuccessful: in 1992 it was leased to a private French businessman who is currently fishing the reefs for commercial profit, as well as disturbing seabird, turtle and coconut crab populations.

Atoll Research Bulletin↗

Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? A remote sensing approach

Spring‐fed wetlands are ecologically important habitats in arid and semi‐arid regions. Springs have been suggested as possible hydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change; however, springs that depend on recent precipitation or snowmelt for recharge may be vulnerable to warming and drought intensification. Springs that are expected to maintain their ecohydrologic function in a warmer, drier climate may be priorities for conservation and restoration. Identifying such springs is difficult because many springs lack hydrologic records of adequate temporal extent and resolution to assess their resilience to water cycle changes. This study demonstrates proof‐of‐concept for the assessment of certain spring types (i.e., helocrene, hypocrene, and hillslope springs) in terms of hydrologic and ecological resilience to climatic water stress using freely available remote‐sensing and climate data. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1985 through 2011 to delineate surface‐moisture zones (SMZs) associated with 39 clusters of 172 springs in a montane sage‐steppe landscape in southeastern Oregon, USA. We developed and synthesized seven NDVI‐based indicators of SMZ resilience to interannual changes in water availability: (1) mean and (2) standard deviation of July NDVI; (3) mean difference in July NDVI and (4) difference in coefficient of variation for July NDVI between each SMZ and its surrounding watershed; (5) response of SMZ July NDVI to 90‐day antecedent precipitation; (6) response of SMZ July NDVI to the previous winter's snowpack; and (7) range of NDVI values from an exceptionally wet year followed by three dry years. Because all resilience indicators were highly inter‐correlated, we derived an overall metric of SMZ resilience using principal components analysis that accounted for 66% of total variance. This overall resilience score was positively correlated with SMZ elevation, slope, mean annual precipitation, and with the number of associated springs. Resilience was greater for SMZs on topographically shaded, north‐facing slopes. Several high‐resilience SMZs were located immediately below persistent snowbanks, suggesting a possible source of steady recharge throughout the growing season. The approach presented here—if combined with field assessments of spring hydrogeology, discharge, and groundwater age—could help identify spring‐fed wetlands that are most likely to serve as hydrologic refugia from climate change.

Oregon↗

Water and the South Florida environment

Ecological problems are a major concern to Florida as well as to the Nation. National attention was focused on these problems in September 1968, when the Port Authority of Dade County began to con- struct a jetport for supersonic aircraft on a 39-square-mile tract 6 miles north of Everglades National Park and on the east edge of the Big Cypress Swamp. Conservation groups and citizens raised questions as to the effects of a regional jetport and the attendant satellite growth on the water resources and biological communities of the National Park. The Department of the Interior began studies to investigate the situation. One study, Leopold (1969), reported on the unfavorable ecological effects of the attendant satellite growth. Then Secretary of the Interior, Walter J. Hickel, directed the U.S. Geological Survey to study the water resources of the Big Cypress to determine which parts of the Big Cypress contribute the major part of the water necessary to maintain adequate water supplies for Everglades National Park. This was done in a report by Klein and others (1970). At about the same time, the Departments of interior and Transportation, the State of Florida, and the Dade County Port Authority con-curred in assigning to the Secretary of the Interior certain responsibilities for planning, developing, and coordinating an ecological study of south Florida. A primary objective of the ecological study is to provide information that will assist in the formulation of land-use policy consistent with the protection of the environment of Everglades National Park, the adjacent estuaries, and the public water supplies. The part of the investigation describing the surface-water and ground-water resources of south Florida was assigned to the Geological Survey. The quantity and quality of surface water and ground water and their interrelation with estuarine and marine waters are here considered. Also considered are the problems, present or future, related to the hydrologic environment that involve human, animal, and plant life. Changes taking place, apparent trends, and projections for the future are also considered, as well as alternatives for water management. The Geological Survey effort began in January 1971, when aerial photography and selected qualitative hydrologic data were obtained. However, most of the information upon which this report Is based was obtained by the Geological Survey in cooperative programs with several local, State, and Federal agencies since about 1940. The long-term support of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Park Service, U.S. Navy, Florida Department of Natural Resources, Central and Southern Florida Flood Control District, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Collier Counties, Miami and Miami Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, Naples and others in the collection of data is gratefully acknowledged. A prolonged drought throughout south Florida from September 1970 to May 1971 accentuated the importance and timeliness of the study. The drought brought about a readvance of sea-water intrusion in many coastal areas, which necessitated restrictions on water use. The effect of drought on the regional water supply, continued population growth and increased water demands, and deterioration of the water quality in many of the canals and waterways of the urban areas accentuated the need for improved water management and land-use planning. As a result of the water crisis, the Governor of Florida called a special conference in September 1971. The conference, attended by foremost scientific and government personnel, proposed creation of an agency that would develop and implement comprehensive land and water-use plans for south Florida that would minimize environmental degradation.

Florida↗

Mangrove forests in a rapidly changing world: Global change impacts and conservation opportunities along the Gulf of Mexico coast

Mangrove forests are highly-productive intertidal wetlands that support many ecosystem goods and services. In addition to providing fish and wildlife habitat, mangrove forests improve water quality, provide seafood, reduce coastal erosion, supply forest products, support coastal food webs, minimize flooding impacts, and support high rates of carbon sequestration. Despite their tremendous societal value, mangrove forests are threatened by many aspects of global change. Here, we examine the effects of global change on mangrove forests along the Gulf of Mexico coast, which is a valuable region for advancing understanding of global change impacts because the region spans multiple ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients that are representative of other mangrove transition zones across the world. We consider the historical and anticipated future responses of mangrove forests to the following aspects of global change: temperature change, precipitation change, accelerated sea-level rise, tropical cyclone intensification, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, eutrophication, invasive non-native species, and land use change. For each global change factor, we provide an initial global perspective but focus primarily on the three countries that border the Gulf of Mexico: United States, Mexico, and Cuba. The interactive effects of global change can have large ecological consequences, and we provide examples that highlight their importance. While some interactions between global change drivers can lead to mangrove mortality and loss, others can lead to mangrove expansion at the expense of other ecosystems. Finally, we discuss strategies for using restoration and conservation to maximize the adaptive capacity of mangrove forests to global change. To ensure that the ecosystem goods and services provided by mangrove forests continue to be available for future generations, there is a pressing need to better protect, manage, and restore mangrove forests as well as the adjacent ecosystems that provide opportunities for adaptation in response to global change.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

Mapping predicted ecological states at landscape scales using remote sensing data and machine learning

Dryland ecosystems, covering 45% of the Earth's land and supporting over one-third of the global population, face significant threats from land degradation and ecological state change. Managing these ecosystems is complex, and science-based frameworks like Ecological Site Descriptions and state-and-transition models are essential tools for guiding decisions to support ecological health while maintaining stakeholder values such as grazing, wildlife, and recreation. However, alignment of these frameworks with smaller scale soil survey maps limits their applicability to broader ecological processes. Here, we extend these frameworks to larger landscapes with a machine learning approach that integrates large-scale, high-resolution vegetation data with identified ecological states from a data-driven state-and-transition model developed for a landscape-scale Ecological Site Group. A “global” model, which used combined inputs from multiple remotely sensed datasets, outperformed individual dataset models based on evaluation with independent data. Ecological state maps generated through this approach broaden the utility of state-and-transition models across Ecological Site Groups, providing a more spatially robust tool for land management at watershed and larger landscape scales. These methods, and the associated ecological state maps, can help meet critical needs for improved land condition assessments that support development of resource management plans and help identify priority areas for restoration and conservation.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

Life history, genetics, range expansion and new frontiers of the lionfish (Pterois volitans, Perciformes: Pteroidae) in Latin America

Pterois volitans (lionfish) is a midsize predatory fish commonly found in waters of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean. The species was first documented in Dania Beach, Florida (northwestern Caribbean) in 1985. Since that time the species has expanded its range rapidly to the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Since its introduction P. volitans has changed community structure and biodiversity of Caribbean reef communities and other coastal tropical ecosystems. Continuous introductions (accidental or intentional), limited natural predators, naïve-range prey behavior, high predation rates on competitors, continuous reproduction, and an extended period of larval dispersal have been the keys for successful invasion and rapid range extension of P. volitans . This invasion has become so severe that it has been recognized as one of the world’s top conservation issues. Here, we review the life history, behavior, and historical and contemporary genetic patterns that facilitate expansion and the colonization process. A greater understanding of lionfish biology, ecology, and the changes related to its present condition as a super-invader could improve current and future management strategies and new detection and response methodologies. We also examine new invasion frontiers that this species has the potential to colonize such as the eastern Pacific. This information will provide managers, the scientific community, and the civil society better tools for eradication, control and management of future invasions of this and other invasive species.

Caribbean Sea, Latin America↗

Eradication of invasive Tamarix ramosissima along a desert stream increases native fish density

Spring ecosystems of the western United States have high conservation value, particularly because of the highly endemic, and often endangered, fauna that they support. Refuges now protect these habitats from many of the human impacts that once threatened them, but invasive species often persist. Invasive saltcedar is ubiquitous along streams, rivers, and spring ecosystems of the western United States, yet the impact of saltcedar invasion on these ecosystems, or ecosystem response to its removal, have rarely been quantified. Along Jackrabbit Spring, a springbrook in Nevada that supports populations of two endangered fish (Ash Meadows pupfish and Ash Meadows speckled dace) as well as several exotic aquatic consumers, we quantified the response of aquatic consumers to largescale saltcedar removal and identified the mechanism underlying consumer response to the removal. Clearing saltcedar from the riparian zone increased densities of native pupfish and exotic screw snails, but decreased the density of exotic crayfish. Positive effects of saltcedar removal on pupfish and snails occurred because saltcedar heavily shades the stream, greatly reducing the availability of algae for herbivores. This was confirmed by analyses of potential organic matter sources and consumer 13C: pupfish and snails, along with native dace and exotic mosquitofish, relied heavily on algae-derived carbon and not saltcedar-derived carbon. By contrast, crayfish ??13C values mirrored algae ??13C during summer, but in winter indicated reliance on allochthonous saltcedar litter that dominated organic inputs in saltcedar reaches and on algae-derived carbon where saltcedar was absent. The seasonal use of saltcedar by crayfish likely explains its negative response to saltcedar removal. Clearing saltcedar effectively restored the springbrook of Jackrabbit Spring to the conditions characteristic of native vegetation sites. Given the high conservation value of spring ecosystems and the potential conservation benefits of saltcedar removal that this research highlights, eradicating saltcedar from spring ecosystems of the western United States should clearly be a management priority. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

SAS procedures for designing and analyzing sample surveys

Complex surveys often are necessary to estimate occurrence (or distribution), density, and abundance of plants and animals for purposes of re-search and conservation. Most scientists are familiar with simple random sampling, where sample units are selected from a population of interest (sampling frame) with equal probability. However, the goal of ecological surveys often is to make inferences about populations over large or complex spatial areas where organisms are not homogeneously distributed or sampling frames are in-convenient or impossible to construct. Candidate sampling strategies for such complex surveys include stratified,multistage, and adaptive sampling (Thompson 1992, Buckland 1994).

Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America↗

Geospatial Technology Applications and Infrastructure in the Biological Resources Division

Executive Summary -- Automated spatial processing technology such as geographic information systems (GIS), telemetry, and satellite-based remote sensing are some of the more recent developments in the long history of geographic inquiry. For millennia, humankind has endeavored to map the Earth's surface and identify spatial relationships. But the precision with which we can locate geographic features has increased exponentially with satellite positioning systems. Remote sensing, GIS, thematic mapping, telemetry, and satellite positioning systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) are tools that greatly enhance the quality and rapidity of analysis of biological resources. These technologies allow researchers, planners, and managers to more quickly and accurately determine appropriate strategies and actions. Researchers and managers can view information from new and varying perspectives using GIS and remote sensing, and GPS receivers allow the researcher or manager to identify the exact location of interest. These geospatial technologies support the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biological Resources Division (BRD) and the Strategic Science Plan (BRD 1996) by providing a cost-effective and efficient method for collection, analysis, and display of information. The BRD mission is 'to work with others to provide the scientific understanding and technologies needed to support the sound management and conservation of our Nation's biological resources.' A major responsibility of the BRD is to develop and employ advanced technologies needed to synthesize, analyze, and disseminate biological and ecological information. As the Strategic Science Plan (BRD 1996) states, 'fulfilling this mission depends on effectively balancing the immediate need for information to guide management of biological resources with the need for technical assistance and long-range, strategic information to understand and predict emerging patterns and trends in ecological systems.' Information sharing plays a key role in nearly everything BRD does. The Strategic Science Plan discusses the need to (1) develop tools and standards for information transfer, (2) disseminate information, and (3) facilitate effective use of information. This effort centers around the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) and the National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI), components of the National Information Infrastructure. The NBII and NSDI are distributed electronic networks of biological and geographical data and information, as well as tools to help users around the world easily find and retrieve the biological and geographical data and information they need. The BRD is responsible for developing scientifically and statistically reliable methods and protocols to assess the status and trends of the Nation's biological resources. Scientists also conduct important inventory and monitoring studies to maintain baseline information on these same resources. Research on those species for which the Department of the Interior (DOI) has trust responsibilities (including endangered species and migratory species) involves laboratory and field studies of individual animals and the environments in which they live. Researchboth tactical and strategicis conducted at the BRD's 17 science centers and 81 field stations, 54 Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units in 40 states, and at 11 former Cooperative Park Study Units. Studies encompass fish, birds, mammals, and plants, as well as their ecosystems and the surrounding landscape. Biological Resources Division researchers use a variety of scientific tools in their endeavors to understand the causes of biological and ecological trends. Research results are used by managers to predict environmental changes and to help them take appropriate measures to manage resources effectively. The BRD Geospatial Technology Program facilitates the collection, analysis, and dissemination of data and informat

Information and Technology Report↗

A tale of two valleys: Endangered species policy and the fate of the giant gartersnake

By the mid-20th Century, giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) had lost more than 90% of their Central Valley marsh habitat and were extirpated from more than two-thirds of their range. This massive habitat loss led to their inclusion in the inaugural list of rare species under the California Endangered Species Act (CESA). Listing under the CESA provided giant gartersnakes legal protection and mechanisms for recovery, and subsequent listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (U.S. ESA) further fortified these protections. But how effective has listing under these endangered species acts (ESAs) been at achieving their goal of giant gartersnake recovery? Herein, we review relevant aspects of giant gartersnake ecology, illustrate how listing has benefitted giant gartersnakes and what challenges have been faced in slowing declines and recovering populations, and chart a course towardprovide options for improved conservation, management, and recovery of giant gartersnakes. Although listing as threatened under both state and federal ESAs has not yet achieved recovery of giant gartersnakes, the increased knowledge gained and mechanisms for protecting giant gartersnake habitat on private and public lands developed over the past 50 years has improved conservation of this endemic California snake.

California↗

The Impacts of flow alterations to crayfishes in Southeastern Oklahoma, with an emphasis on the mena crayfish (orconectes menae)

Human activities can alter the environment to the point that it is unsuitable to the native species resulting in a loss of biodiversity. Ecologists understand the importance of biodiversity and the conservation of vulnerable species. Species that are narrowly endemic are considered to be particularly vulnerable because they often use specific habitats that are highly susceptible to human disturbance. The basic components of species conservation are 1) delineation of the spatial distribution of the species, 2) understanding how the species interacts with its environment, and 3) employing management strategies based on the ecology of the species. In this study, we investigated several crayfish species endemic to the Ouachita Mountains in Oklahoma and Arkansas. We established the spatial distributions (i.e., range) of the crayfish using Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling. We then investigated crayfish habitat use with quantitative sampling and a paired movement study. Finally, we evaluated the ability of crayfish to burrow under different environmental conditions in a controlled laboratory setting. Crayfish distribution at the landscape scale was largely driven by climate, geology and elevation. In general, the endemic crayfish in this study occurred above 300-m elevation where the geology was dominated by sandstone and shale, and rainfall totals were the highest compared to the rest of the study region. Our quantitative data indicated crayfish did not select for specific habitat types at the reach scale; however, crayfish appeared to continue to use shallow and dry habitat even as the streams dried. Movement by passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagged crayfish was highly variable but crayfish tended to burrow in response to drought rather than migrate to wet habitat. Controlled laboratory experiments revealed smaller substrate size (pebble) restricted crayfish burrowing more than larger substrates (cobble). We also found excess fine sediment restricted crayfish burrowing regardless of dominant substrate size. Our results suggest climate change and sedimentation resulting from land-use practices, combined with increased water withdrawals have the potential to alter crayfish distributions and affect persistence of some crayfish populations.

Report↗

Ecological and evolutionary traps

Organisms often rely on environmental cues to make behavioral and life-history decisions. However, in environments that have been altered suddenly by humans, formerly reliable cues might no longer be associated with adaptive outcomes. In such cases, organisms can become 'trapped' by their evolutionary responses to the cues and experience reduced survival or reproduction. Ecological traps occur when organisms make poor habitat choices based on cues that correlated formerly with habitat quality. Ecological traps are part of a broader phenomenon, evolutionary traps, involving a dissociation between cues that organisms use to make any behavioral or life-history decision and outcomes normally associated with that decision. A trap can lead to extinction if a population falls below a critical size threshold before adaptation to the novel environment occurs. Conservation and management protocols must be designed in light of, rather than in spite of, the behavioral mechanisms and evolutionary history of populations and species to avoid 'trapping' them.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty: Adapting to climate change risks using modern portfolio theory

Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to risk of failing to meet conservation goals. Conservation planning tends to treat risk as an absolute measure, ignoring the context of the management problem and risk preferences of stakeholders. Application to conservation of risk management theory emphasizes diversification of portfolio of assets, with the goal of reducing the impact of system volatility on investment return. We use principles of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which quantifies risk as the variance and correlation among assets, to formalize diversification as an explicit strategy for managing risk in climate‐driven reserve design. We extend MPT to specify a framework that evaluates multiple conservation objectives, allows decision makers to balance management benefits and risk when preferences are contested or unknown, and includes additional decision options such as parcel divestment when evaluating candidate reserve designs. We apply an efficient search algorithm that optimizes portfolio design for large conservation problems and a game theoretic approach to evaluate portfolio tradeoffs that satisfy decision makers with divergent benefit and risk tolerances, or when a single decision maker cannot resolve their own preferences. Evaluating several risk profiles for a case study in South Carolina, our results suggest that a reserve design may be somewhat robust to differences in risk attitude but that budgets will likely be important determinants of conservation planning strategies, particularly when divestment is considered a viable alternative. We identify a possible fiscal threshold where adequate resources allow protecting a sufficiently diverse portfolio of habitats such that the risk of failing to achieve conservation objectives is considerably lower. For a range of sea‐level rise projections, conversion of habitat to open water (14‐180%) and wetland loss (1‐7%) are unable to be compensated under the current protected network. In contrast, optimal reserve design outcomes are predicted to ameliorate expected losses relative to current and future habitat protected under the existing conservation estate.

South Carolina↗