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A hierarchical model for regional analysis of population change using Christmas Bird Count data, with application to the American Black Duck

Analysis of Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data is complicated by the need to account for variation in effort on counts and to provide summaries over large geographic regions. We describe a hierarchical model for analysis of population change using CBC data that addresses these needs. The effect of effort is modeled parametrically, with parameter values varying among strata as identically distributed random effects. Year and site effects are modeled hierarchically, accommodating large regional variation in number of samples and precision of estimates. The resulting model is complex, but a Bayesian analysis can be conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We analyze CBC data for American Black Ducks (Anas rubripes), a species of considerable management interest that has historically been monitored using winter surveys. Over the interval 1966-2003, Black Duck populations showed distinct regional patterns of population change. The patterns shown by CBC data are similar to those shown by the Midwinter Waterfowl Inventory for the United States.

Condor↗

Hierarchical modeling of cluster size in wildlife surveys

Clusters or groups of individuals are the fundamental unit of observation in many wildlife sampling problems, including aerial surveys of waterfowl, marine mammals, and ungulates. Explicit accounting of cluster size in models for estimating abundance is necessary because detection of individuals within clusters is not independent and detectability of clusters is likely to increase with cluster size. This induces a cluster size bias in which the average cluster size in the sample is larger than in the population at large. Thus, failure to account for the relationship between delectability and cluster size will tend to yield a positive bias in estimates of abundance or density. I describe a hierarchical modeling framework for accounting for cluster-size bias in animal sampling. The hierarchical model consists of models for the observation process conditional on the cluster size distribution and the cluster size distribution conditional on the total number of clusters. Optionally, a spatial model can be specified that describes variation in the total number of clusters per sample unit. Parameter estimation, model selection, and criticism may be carried out using conventional likelihood-based methods. An extension of the model is described for the situation where measurable covariates at the level of the sample unit are available. Several candidate models within the proposed class are evaluated for aerial survey data on mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos).

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

Monitoring in the context of structured decision-making and adaptive management

In a natural resource management setting, monitoring is a crucial component of an informed process for making decisions, and monitoring design should be driven by the decision context and associated uncertainties. Monitoring itself can play >3 roles. First, it is important for state-dependent decision-making, as when managers need to know the system state before deciding on the appropriate course of action during the ensuing management cycle. Second, monitoring is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions relative to objectives. Third, in an adaptive management setting, monitoring provides the feedback loop for learning about the system; learning is sought not for its own sake but primarily to better achieve management objectives. In this case, monitoring should be designed to reduce the critical uncertainties in models of the managed system. The United States Geological Survey and United States Fish and Wildlife Service are conducting a large-scale management experiment on 23 National Wildlife Refuges across the Northeast and Midwest Regions. The primary management objective is to provide habitat for migratory waterbirds, particularly during migration, using water-level manipulations in managed wetlands. Key uncertainties are related to the potential trade-offs created by management for a specific waterbird guild (e.g., migratory shorebirds) and the response of waterbirds, plant communities, and invertebrates to specific experimental hydroperiods. We reviewed the monitoring program associated with this study, and the ways that specific observations fill >1 of the roles identified above. We used observations from our monitoring to improve state-dependent decisions to control undesired plants, to evaluate management performance relative to shallow-water habitat objectives, and to evaluate potential trade-offs between waterfowl and shorebird habitat management. With limited staff and budgets, management agencies need efficient monitoring programs that are used for decision-making, not comprehensive studies that elucidate all manner of ecological relationships.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Developing a general conceptual framework for avian conservation science

Avian conservation science in North America has produced a variety of monitoring programs designed to provide information on population status of birds. Waterfowl surveys provide population estimates for breeding ducks over most of the continent, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides indexes to population change for >400 breeding bird species, and many other surveys exist that index bird populations at a variety of scales and seasons. However, many fundamental questions about bird population change remain unanswered. I suggest that analyses of monitoring data provide limited understanding of causes of population change, and that the declining species paradigm (Caughley 1994) is sometimes an inefficient approach to increasing our understanding of causes of population change. In North America, the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI) provides an opportunity to implement alternative approaches that use management, modeling of population responses to management, and monitoring in combination to increase our understanding of bird populations. In adaptive resources management, modeling provides predictions about consequences of management, and monitoring data allow us to assess the population consequences of management. In this framework, alternative hypotheses about response of populations to management can be evaluated by formulating a series of models with differing structure, and management and monitoring provide information about which model best predicts population response.

Ornis Hungarica↗

The Breeding Bird Survey: Its first fifteen years, 1965-1979

The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is an ongoing cooperative program sponsored jointly by the U.S. Fish and Wildife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service. Its main purpose is to estimate population trends of the many species of birds that nest in North America north of Mexico and that migrate across international boundaries. This survey provides information, both locally by ecological or political regions and on a continental scale, on (1) short-term population changes that can be correlated with specific weather incidents, (2) recovery periods following catastrophic declines, (3) normal year-to-year variations, (4) long-term population trends, and (5) invasions of exotics. The BBS also permits detailed computer mapping of relative abundance of each species, either year by year to show changes in distribution and relative abundance, or the average over a period of years. It provides base-line data with which more intensive local studies can be compared. For biogeographic studies it provides uniform sampling of bird populations by major physiographic regions across the continent. In conjunction with the Audubon Christmas Bird Count, it permits comparison of summer and winter distribution of species that winter in the United States. Most species of North American birds migrate across international boundaries, especially those shared with Canada, Mexico, and the Soviet Union. As part of our responsibility under treaties with these nations, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has developed the BBS to monitor avian population changes so that any adverse trends can be detected early. This provides the opportunity to determine the reasons for any increase or decrease, to define geographic areas in which changes are greatest, to study correlations between avian population changes and land-use changes, and to make recommendations for controlling undesirable bird population trends. For example, the BBS can be used to detect and estimate the extent of losses resulting from widespread use of pesticides, and to reveal whether major population changes of a given species (e.g., Dickcissel) in certain States are related to a continental decline or are merely a result of population shifts within the breeding range. Effects of urban and suburban expansion are often reflected in the loss of forest interior birds. Population trends for 230 species as well as several avian genera and families are discussed and graphed in this report. For most of these species, regional and well as continental trends are shown. The three major regions discussed are the Eastern, Central, and Western, bounded by the Mississippi River and the eastern base of the Rocky Mountains. Additional graphs for certain States or physiographic regions are included for selected species of special interest. The following paragraphs summarize general trends in the major bird families. The native herons in general are maintaining their populations, whereas the exotic Cattle Egret continues its geographic spread and its steady increase. Waterfowl as a group are stable or increasing. Although most widespread species of hawks are on the increase, the rarer species show evidence of decline. Among the gallinaceous birds, the greatest change was a sharp drop in Northern Bobwhite as a result of the exceptionally cold winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78 in the Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic States. Killdeer populations, except for a minor decline during these two winters, showed strong increases except in the West. American Woodcock were poorly sampled by the BBS because they were relatively inactive during daylight. Common Snipe and the other common shorebirds that nest in the United States and southern Canada exhibited stable or increasing populations, especially in the Eastern and Central regions. Herring Gull counts varied dramatically and irregularly from year to year. Laughing Gulls increased along the Atlantic coast and Franklin's Gulls declined in the interior of the continen

Resource Publication↗

Prairie wetland complexes as landscape functional units in a changing climate

The wetland complex is the functional ecological unit of the prairie pothole region (PPR) of central North America. Diverse complexes of wetlands contribute high spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity, productivity, and biodiversity to these glaciated prairie landscapes. Climatewarming simulations using the new model WETLANDSCAPE (WLS) project major reductions in water volume, shortening of hydroperiods, and less-dynamic vegetation for prairie wetland complexes. The WLS model portrays the future PPR as a much less resilient ecosystem: The western PPR will be too dry and the eastern PPR will have too few functional wetlands and nesting habitat to support historic levels of waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. Maintaining ecosystem goods and services at current levels in a warmer climate will be a major challenge for the conservation community.

BioScience↗

Spatial dynamics of bar-headed geese migration in the context of H5N1

Virulent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) since 2005 have raised the question about the roles of migratory and wild birds in the transmission of HPAI. Despite increased monitoring, the role of wild waterfowl as the primary source of the highly pathogenic H5N1 has not been clearly established. The impact of outbreaks of HPAI among species of wild birds which are already endangered can nevertheless have devastating consequences for the local and non-local ecology where migratory species are established. Understanding the entangled dynamics of migration and the disease dynamics will be key to prevention and control measures for humans, migratory birds and poultry. Here, we present a spatial dynamic model of seasonal migration derived from first principles and linking the local dynamics during migratory stopovers to the larger scale migratory routes. We discuss the effect of repeated epizootic at specific migratory stopovers for bar-headed geese ( Anser indicus ). We find that repeated deadly outbreaks of H5N1 on stopovers during the autumn migration of bar-headed geese could lead to a larger reduction in the size of the equilibrium bird population compared with that obtained after repeated outbreaks during the spring migration. However, the opposite is true during the first few years of transition to such an equilibrium. The age-maturation process of juvenile birds which are more susceptible to H5N1 reinforces this result.

Journal of the Royal Society Interface↗

Habits and Habitats of Fishes in the Upper Mississippi River

The Upper Mississippi River consists of 26 navigation pools that provide abundant habitat for a host of natural resources, such as fish, migratory waterfowl, non-game birds, deer, beaver, muskrats, snakes, reptiles, frogs, toads, salamanders, and many others. Of all the many different types of animals that depend on the river, fish are the most diverse with over 140 different species. The sport fishery is very diverse with at least 25 species commonly harvested. Fish species, such as walleyes, largemouth bass, bluegills, and crappies are favorites of sport anglers. Others such as common carp, buffalos, and channel catfish, are harvested by commercial anglers and end up on the tables of families all over the country. Still other fishes are important because they provide food for sport or commercial species. The fishery resources in these waters contribute millions of dollars to the economy annually. Overall, the estimate impact of anglers and other recreational users exceeds $1.2 billion on the Upper Mississippi River. The fisheries in the various reaches of the river of often are adversely affected by pollution, urbanization, non-native fishes, navigation, recreational boating, fishing, dredging, and siltation. However, state and federal agencies expend considerable effort and resources to manage fisheries and restore river habitats. This pamphlet was prepared to help you better understand what fishery resources exist, what the requirements of each pecies are, and how man-induced changes that are roposed or might occur could affect them.

Illinois;Iowa;Minnesota;Missouri;Wisconsin↗

Seasonal ingestion of toxic and nontoxic shot by Canada geese

We used rates of ingested shot and elevated blood-lead levels (≥0.18 ppm) to estimate the proportion of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) exposed to lead on 3 study areas in Manitoba, Minnesota, and Missouri. Lead exposure was prevalent on all areas and was common after the hunting season closed, when up to 15% of geese could have been exposed to lead shot. However, the proportion of steel shot ingested by geese has increased during the past 2 decades. We suggest that lead exposure is still a source of indirect hunting mortality in Canada geese but project that the prevalence of lead exposure in the Eastern Prairie Population and other waterfowl populations will decrease as nontoxic shot regulations persist and hunters use steel or other nontoxic shot.

Minnesota, Missouri, Manitoba↗

Avian botulism: geographic expansion of a historic disease

Avian botulism is a paralytic, often fatal disease of birds resulting from ingestion of toxin produced by the bacterium Clostridium botulinum. Waterfowl die-offs from the botulism are usually caused by type C toxin; sporadic die-offs among fish-eating birds, such as common loons (Gavia immer) and gulls, have been caused by type E toxin.

Fish and Wildlife Leaflet↗

Acid rain publications by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1979-1989

Pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems has been a concern to society since the burning of fossil fuels began in the industrial revolution. In the past decade or so, this concern has been heightened by evidence that chemical transformation in the atmosphere of combustion by-products and subsequent long-range transport can cause environmental damage in remote areas. The extent of this damage and the rates of ecological recovery were largely unknown. "Acid rain" became the environmental issue of the 1980's. To address the increasing concerns of the public, in 1980 the Federal government initiated a 10-year interagency research program to develop information that could be used by the President and the Congress in making decisions for emission controls. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has been an active participant in acid precipitation research. The Service provided support to a number of scientific conferences and forums, including the Action Seminar on Acid Precipitation held in Toronto, Canada, in 1979, an international symposium on Acidic Precipitation and Fishery Impacts in Northeastern North America in 1981, and a symposium on Acidic Precipitation and Atmospheric Deposition: A Western Perspective in 1982. These meetings as well as the growing involvement with the government's National Acidic Precipitation Assessment Program placed the Service in the lead in research on the biological effects of acidic deposition. Research projects have encompassed water chemistry, aquatic invertebrates, amphibians, fish, and waterfowl. Water quality surveys have been conducted to help determine the extent of acid precipitation effects in the northeast, Middle Atlantic, and Rocky Mountain regions. In addition to lake and stream studies, research in wetland and some terrestrial habitats has also been conducted. Specific projects have addressed important sport species such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), and striped bass (Morone saxatilis). Trace metal accumulation in fish has been investigated and a symposium sponsored on related work. U.S> Fish and Wildlife Service scientists serve as advisors and participants in research being conducted by industry, nonprofit groups, State and other Federal agencies. Researcher have worked closely with colleagues in Canada, England, Norway, Scotland, the Soviet Union, and Sweden to gain additional understanding of the problem. In 1982, the Service implemented a mitigation research program to provide resource managers with information to help them protect sensitive ecosystems, and rehabilitation methods for resources already affected by acidification. An international workshop was convened to outline the research needs. Several conferences were organized to develop appropriate field and laboratory procedures. Scientists with the mitigation research program are evaluating the ecological effects of liming (addition of base material) surface waters and surrounding watershed to provide buffering against acidic inputs. Through long-term cooperative project with States and other organizations, investigations are studying possible abatement methods for regions most affected by acidic deposition. To date, more than 200 reports the describe these studies have been published. These products include conference proceedings, journal articles, and in-house scientific publications. An education poster describing the effects of acid rain on aquatic ecosystems was developed and distributed to individuals, conservations and State organizations, and the public education system. This annotated bibliography lists current publications by Service authors, cooperators, or contractors on acid rain and related quality. Entire are arranged alphabetically by author surname. For further information about the research program, contact the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Acid Precipitation Section, National Fishery Research Center -- Leetown, Box 700, Kearneysville, WV 25430.

Biological Report↗

Irrigation drainage: Green River basin, Utah

A reconnaissance of wildlife areas in the middle Green River basin of Utah during 1986-87 determined that concentrations of selenium in water and biological tissues were potentially harmful to wildlife at the Stewart Lake Waterfowl Management Area and in the Ouray National Wildlife Refuge. Concentations of selenium in irrigation drainage entering Stewart Lake ranged from 14 to 140 micrograms per liter; liver tissue from coots collected from the lake contained selenium concentrations of as much as 26 micrograms per gram and samples of tissue from carp contained as much as 31 micrograms per gram. Concentrations of selenium in a pond at the Ouray National Wildlife Refuge, which receives irrigation water and shallow ground water, were as much as 93 micrograms per liter. Liver tissue from coots collected from this pond contained selenium concentrations of as much as 43 micrograms per gram; eggs of water birds contained as much as 120 micrograms per gram.

Conference Paper↗

Nest materials as a source of genetic data for avian ecological studies

We examined the utility of feathers and egg shell membranes, deposited in the nests of Spectacled Eiders (Somateria fischeri), as a source of DNA for genetic studies at both the population and individual level. The potential for feather DNA contamination as a result of female behavioral interactions (e.g. nest parasitism), reuse of nest sites from previous years, or other unknown occurrences was acknowledged and specifically tested. DNA was successfully extracted from both feathers and egg shell membranes and waterfowl microsatellite loci were used to construct individual genotypes. We found no difference in the genotypes obtained from nest feathers or blood of the incubating female. Detection of nest feather contamination was possible with as little as one feather when samples from multiple females were intentionally mixed. Triplicate DNA extractions from 33 nests provided a means of detecting contamination in 3 nests. Egg membranes proved a viable source of offspring DNA and can contribute valuable data to investigations of parentage when assayed jointly with maternal feather DNA. Nest materials provide an efficient, non-invasive method of genetic sampling that can be readily incorporated into field research. However, the natural history traits and mating strategies of a species must be considered during sample collection to identify the possible sources of nest materials (e.g., paternal, maternal, parasite, etc.). Specific experiments should also be designed to test sampling assumptions.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

Hydrologic functions of prairie wetlands

Wetlands in the prairie known as potholes or sloughs represent an ever-changing mosaic of surface waters interacting with the atmosphere, groundwater, and each other in a variety of ways. Studies of groups of adjacent wetlands in different parts of the glaciated North American prairie have enabled some connections to be made between hydrologic processes, biological communities, and use of these wetlands by wetland-dependent wildlife. Understanding controls on variability in water levels, water volume, and salinity in these wetlands sets the stage for understanding controls on biological communities utilizing these wetlands. The role that natural variability in water and salinity plays in making these wetlands an important resource for waterfowl will provide an important context for those who are responsible for artificially altering the variability of water and salinity in prairie wetlands.

Great Plains Research↗

Patterns of variation in size and composition of Greater Scaup eggs: Are they related?

We studied egg size variation of Greater Scaup ( Aythya marila ) nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska from 1991-1996. Mean egg size was 64.36±0.03 (SE) ml. Egg size did not vary with clutch size or serve as an index of body size. There was less than 2% overlap in total clutch volumes for clutches of different sizes indicating that phenotypic clutch size-egg size trade-offs are not occurring among individuals. At the population level, Greater Scaup have less variation in egg size than other species of waterfowl. The proportion of variation in egg size caused by differences among females was 0.20, caused by differences within females among years was 0.25, and caused by differences within females and years (i.e., clutches) was 0.56. The proportion of egg lipid decreased with increasing egg size while the proportion of egg protein increased with egg size. Thus, Greater Scaup appear to trade-off lipid for protein as egg size increases. The proportion of variation that was due to differences among females in total egg protein was 0.79 and in total egg lipid was 0.49. We conclude that in the absence of a fitness trade-off between clutch size and egg size, selection has reduced among-individual variation in egg size.

Alaska↗

Monitoring hydrilla using two RAPD procedures and the nonindigenous aquatic species database

Hydrilla (Hydrilla verticillata (L.f.) Royle), an invasive aquatic weed, continues to spread to new regions in the United States. Two biotypes, one a female dioecious and the other monoecious have been identified. Management of the spread of hydrilla requires understanding the mechanisms of introduction and transport, an ability to map and make available information on distribution, and tools to distinguish the known U.S. biotypes as well as potential new introductions. Review of the literature and discussions with aquatic scientists and resource managers point to the aquarium and water garden plant trades as the primary past mechanism for the regional dispersal of hydrilla while local dispersal is primarily carried out by other mechanisms such as boat traffic, intentional introductions, and waterfowl. The Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) database is presented as a tool for assembling, geo-referencing, and making available information on the distribution of hydrilla. A map of the current range of dioecious and monoecious hydrilla by drainage is presented. Four hydrilla samples, taken from three discrete, non-contiguous regions (Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Washington State) were examined using two RAPD assays. The first, generated using primer Operon G17, and capable of distinguishing the dioecious and monoecious U.S. biotypes, indicated all four samples were of the monoecious biotype. Results of the second assay using the Stoffel fragment and 5 primers, produced 111 markers, indicated that these samples do not represent new foreign introductions. The differences in the monoecious and dioecious growth habits and management are discussed.

Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Washington↗

Success of artificial bird nests in burned Gulf Coast Chenier Plain marshes

Wildlife managers in the Gulf Coast Chenier Plain of Louisiana and Texas frequently burn marshes during winter to improve habitat for wintering waterfowl and furbearers. Such fires dramatically alter vegetation structure and cover, although such changes are generally temporary. However, if vegetation cover does not recover sufficiently by the start of the subsequent breeding season, nests of marsh birds could be exposed to increased predation rates. We examined effects of burning on 2 measures of vegetation structure and on 2 types of artificial bird nests during breeding seasons (May and June) before and after experimental winter burns (December and January). We found that vegetation structure did not differ between burned and non-burned marshes at 5 months post-burn. Similarly, depredation rates of artificial sparrow and duck nests did not differ between burned and non-burned marshes during the post-burn breeding season. We recommend that managers complete burning programs by the end of January so that sufficient nesting cover develops before the start of the breeding season.

Southwestern Naturalist↗

Integrated management of waterbirds: Beyond the conventional

Integrated waterbird management over the past few decades has implicitly referred to methods for managing wetlands that usually attempt to enhance habitat for taxonomic groups such as shorebirds and wading birds, in addition to waterfowl, the traditional focus group. Here I describe five elements of integration in management: taxonomic, spatial, temporal, population and habitat, and multiple-use management objectives. Spatial integration simply expands the scale of management concern. Rather than emphasizing management on a very limited number of impoundments or wetlands in small refuges or wildlife management areas, the vision is beginning to shift to connectivity within larger landscapes on the order of many square kilometers as telemetry data on daily and seasonal movements for many species become available. Temporal integration refers to the potential for either simultaneous management for waterbirds and commercial "crops" (e.g., crayfish and rice) or for temporally-staggered management such as row crop production in spring-summer growing seasons and waterbird management on fallow fields in the non-growing (winter) season. Integrating population dynamics with habitats has become a major research focus over the past decade. Identifying which wetlands are "sources" or "sinks" for specific populations provides managers with critical information about effective management. Further, the applications of spatially explicit population models place heavy demands on researchers to identify use patterns for breeding and dispersing individuals by age, sex, and reproductive class. Population viability analysis models require much the same information. Finally, multiple-use management integration refers to trying to optimize the uses of wetlands, when only one (perhaps secondary) use may include waterbird management. Depending upon the ownership and primary land use of a particular parcel of land containing wetlands and/or water bodies, managing for waterbirds may be an "easy sell" (e.g., public natural resource lands) or a very contentious one, where wetlands are created for industrial, aquaculture or urban uses. In the latter case, careful planning and implementation require broad stakeholder participation and education.

Waterbirds↗