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USGS2026

Colocating artificial intelligence data centers with energy infrastructure on Federal public lands—A science synthesis and spatial analysis to inform decision making

Executive Summary Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming industries and economies, creating an urgent need to strategically plan for the energy and infrastructure required to support increasing AI use. U.S. Federal agencies and bureaus have been directed to explore ways to accelerate permitting, development, and deployment of energy resources and AI technologies, including encouraging the colocation of energy infrastructure and data centers. To inform these initiatives, this report synthesizes relevant scientific information and presents a spatial analysis of existing energy infrastructure and data centers on or near U.S. Federal public lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The purpose of this science synthesis and spatial analysis is to provide the BLM with foundational information for considering potential colocation of data centers with energy infrastructure on Federal public lands to support evidence-based decisions. Additionally, this report provides insight into current (2025) and potential future energy demands by providing projections of a range of potential future environmental conditions relevant to maintaining industry-recommended cooling temperature standards necessary for efficient data center operations. As a part of this effort, a rapid response literature review was conducted of the best available science on the topic of data center development and energy infrastructure in July–August 2025, supplemented by additional resources recommended by U.S. Federal agency and bureau subject matter experts (hereafter experts; including the U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory of the Rockies) and peer reviewers. To better understand current conditions relevant to AI data center development, a spatial analysis was conducted across Alaska and 11 States in the Western United States, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming, all of which contain extensive BLM-managed surface lands (hereafter referred to as “BLM lands”) that could be considered for the colocation of energy infrastructure and AI data centers. This effort identified BLM lands within 10 miles of existing transmission lines, consistent with methods used in previous BLM programmatic environmental impact statements. This report describes the types of data centers operating within the United States, which vary in ownership, size, technology, and proximity to end users. This report then outlines the primary considerations of data center development, including reliable energy supply, natural resources (such as water availability to support cooling requirements), and relevant policy and regulatory considerations. Energy supply considerations are pivotal for data center operation. Between 2014 and 2018, data centers in the United States accounted for nearly 2 percent of the Nation’s total electricity consumption, and data center energy consumption is projected to increase from 2 to 6.7–12 percent of total U.S. electricity use by 2028. These energy requirements necessitate careful consideration of energy supply when considering potentially suitable locations for data center development. Experts anticipate that an increase in renewable energy generation will likely support most potential future power demand needs, including for data centers, followed by increases in natural gas, nuclear, and geothermal energy production. Additional capacity in the form of battery storage will likely not generate electricity, but may improve the reliability and flexibility of supply, helping to ensure that growing data center loads can be met. However, the U.S. Department of Energy estimates that the United States will need, on average, 57 percent more energy transmission infrastructure by 2035 to account for the growing power demand introduced by development such as data centers. Cooling server equipment in data centers requires large amounts of electricity and water, and this demand can be exacerbated by hot and humid conditions. Energy efficient water-based cooling technologies may reduce electricity consumption onsite but require more water consumption. This additional water demand has the potential to increase water stress and competition with other users. As such, developing data centers will likely need a thorough assessment of current and potential future water availability, as well as consideration of how water demand may change across other sectors. Data center development involves policy and regulatory considerations, as projects must undergo environmental review and authorization processes that can take 18–24 months. Coordinating these environmental reviews and authorizations with other energy development projects, such as building new transmission lines, may cause additional delays. Recent efforts by the U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Department of the Interior aim to expedite environmental reviews and authorizations and improve coordination across agencies. The spatial analysis identified 771 existing AI data centers and more than 3,300 power plants. The spatial analysis found that 6 percent of AI data centers and 22 percent of power plants in the Western United States were on or within 1 mile of BLM lands, and California had the largest number of facilities. Most existing AI data centers were near high-voltage transmission lines and close to power plants, supporting efficient energy delivery. More than 90,000,000 acres of BLM lands were within 10 miles of existing high-voltage transmission lines, representing 38 percent of BLM lands in the study area. Available transmission infrastructure and the overlap with BLM lands varied by State, and Alaska had limited overlap compared to the rest of the Western United States. To operate most efficiently, data center temperatures must be at or below 80.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This analysis of future temperature and precipitation projections indicated increasing cooling demands for data centers, particularly in Arizona, California, and Nevada, where rising temperatures are expected to increase energy and operational costs while potentially stressing current regional electrical grid infrastructure. This report highlights relevant energy supply, natural resources, and regulatory considerations for data center development on BLM lands. This report does not provide a comprehensive ecological, regulatory, land suitability, or permitting analysis. The factors described here are contextual considerations only and are not intended to identify, rank, quantify, or recommend optimal areas for data center colocation. This spatial analysis focused solely on energy considerations relevant to data centers and did not consider water availability, critical habitats, BLM National Conservation Lands, areas of cultural or historical significance, and other sensitive resources. These topics are recognized as critical but were not within the scope of this science synthesis and spatial analysis.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

Evaluation of a fine sediment removal tool in spring-fed and snowmelt driven streams

The accumulation of fine-grained sediments impairs the structure and function of streams, so removing fine sediments may be required to achieve restoration objectives. There has been little work on methods of removing excess sediment or on the efficacy of the methods. We used a 4-year before-after-control-impact design in southeastern Idaho streams to test a fine sediment removal system (FSRS) manufactured by Streamside Environmental LLC. The FSRS agitates fine sediment in the substrate with clean pump water and then vacuums the sediment out of the stream with a second pump. Our objectives were: 1) to test if the FSRS can selectively remove fine sediment; 2) to monitor the bio-physical responses in FSRS treated and downstream waters; and 3) to compare the bio-physical responses to the FSRS in spring-fed and snowmelt driven stream reaches. The FSRS removed ~ 14 metric tons of sediment from the two treated reaches. More than 90% of this sediment was < 2 mm, indicating that the FSRS selected for fine sediment in both stream types. Sustained effects of removing this sediment were confined to substrate improvements in treated reaches. Embeddedness in the spring-fed reach decreased and subsurface grain size in spring-fed and snowmelt driven reaches increased. We did not detect any sustained invertebrate or fish responses in treated reaches or any detrimental bio-physical responses in downstream waters. These results indicate that the FSRS reduced fine sediment levels but sediment removal did not reverse the impacts of sediment accumulation to stream biota within our monitoring time frame.

Ecological Restoration↗

USGS2008

Use of an annular chamber for testing thermal preference of westslope cutthroat trout and rainbow trout

Remaining populations of westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) in western North America are primarily confined to cold headwaters whereas nonnative rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) predominate in warmer, lower elevation stream sections historically occupied by westslope cutthroat trout. We tested whether differing thermal preferences could account for the spatial segregation observed in the field. Thermal preferences of age-1 westslope cutthroat trout and rainbow trout (125 to 150 mm total length) were assessed in the laboratory using a modified annular preference chamber at acclimation temperatures of 10, 12, 14, and 16??C Final preferred temperature of westslope cutthroat trout (14.9??C) was similar to that of rainbow trout (14.8??C) when tested in a thermal gradient of 11-17??C The high degree of overlap in thermal preference indicates the two species have similar thermal niches and a high potential for competition. We suggest several modifications to the annular preference chamber to improve performance in future studies.

Journal of Freshwater Ecology↗

USGS2013

Population ecology of variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) in Virginia

Variegate darters ( Etheostoma variatum ) were listed as endangered in Virginia in 1992. Reasons for listing included habitat degradation and concerns about current and future impacts of coal mining throughout their Virginia range. Prior to this research, little was known about variegate darter distribution, habitat use, or populations in Virginia. Two primary goals of this research were to gain knowledge about the current population ecology and the relationship between landscape-level factors (e.g., land cover changes, watershed size, isolation from other populations) on current and past variegate darter population sizes. We investigated distribution, habitat suitability, population genetics, and population size and structure of variegate darters in the upper Big Sandy River drainage, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Wise Co., Virginia. Our results indicate variegate darters are primarily found in the Levisa Fork, with highest densities and abundances between its confluence with Dismal Creek and the Virginia-Kentucky border. Sporadic occurrences in smaller tributaries to the Levisa and Tug forks indicate they exist more widely in low densities, especially near the confluence with the Tug and Levisa mainstems. Detection of variegate darters in smaller tributaries was inconsistent, with reach-level occupancy estimates varying among years. We detected young-of-year variegate darters every year we sampled, but age 1 + darters were indistinguishable from older darters based on standard length. Variegate darter population size and stability in Virginia were estimated via multiple methods, including site occupancy surveys, mark-recapture studies, and population genetic analysis. Using mark-recapture methods at five sites, we estimated overall population size in 2011 to be approximately 12,800 individuals in the 35-km reach between the Levisa Fork - Dismal Creek confluence and the Virginia-Kentucky border. Age structure seemed stable, with breeding adults and young-of-year collected annually during 2008-2011. Population genetic analysis indicated variegate darters in the Levisa Fork and its tributaries are part of a single genetic population. Historical and current genetic stability were seen in our analysis of the variegate darter population, with no genetic differentiation among riffles across the upper Levisa Fork watershed, indicating dispersal among these sites is enough to overcome random genetic drift. This population is genetically isolated from downstream populations by the dam at Fishtrap Lake, Pike Co., Kentucky, and is beginning to show genetic isolation from other nearby populations. As expected, the Virginia population is most closely related to those in the Russell Fork and Levisa Fork downstream of the dam. Regular monitoring of variegate darters in the Levisa Fork mainstem from the Dismal Creek confluence to the Virginia-Kentucky border would facilitate better understanding of normal fluctuations of population size and distribution, as well as assessments of population status. This reach encompasses the core of the variegate darter population in Virginia, and its persistence will determine long-term viability of this species. Given that little is known about long-term population trends, we suggest that annual site-occupancy and population size estimates be made at ten randomly selected riffles for at least ten years to understand normal levels of variability. Thereafter, these population parameters could be monitored bi-annually as a way to detect shrinking distribution or abundance, especially after any fish kill or other pollution event in the Levisa Fork. We further suggest that the sites upstream and downstream of the saline diffusor pipe be monitored to detect changes in the extent of the impact zone. Overall, the variegate darter population in Virginia appears stable, although primarily confined to the lower 35 km of the Levisa Fork. Nevertheless, variegate darters in Virginia remain susceptible to extirpation due to catastrophic events, both physical (chemical spill) and biological (disease outbreak or invasive species introduction).

Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2013

Fall diel diet composition of American eel (Anguilla rostrata) in a tributary of the Hudson River, New York, USA

American eel (Anguilla rostrata), a once common species, is now in decline throughout much of its native range in North America. There is little information on the role of American eel in river food webs. A better understanding of the diet and ecological role of American eel will help in the conservation of this important species. During autumn 2009, eel and aquatic invertebrate samples were collected from Hannacroix Creek, a tributary of the Hudson River, in Albany and Greene counties, New York, USA. Eel diet was analyzed by the eel size and time period (day or night). A high proportion of eel stomachs were empty (73%). Eel diets varied among size classes and day and night feeding periods (p = 0.001). Diet overlap was significant between small and medium eels caught both during the day (α = 0.71) and at night (α = 0.84). Nocturnal diet and nocturnal invertebrate samples were similar (α = 0.65), indicating a preference for bottom feeding during the night. Mayfly nymphs were the major prey consumed in each period by all size classes. Among eels that fed, night-feeding eels had the greatest stomach weight (as a percent of total body weight). The swim-bladder parasite, Anguillicoloides crassus, was also observed in eels of all size classes with nearly 50% afflicted.

New York↗

USGS2015

Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N -mixture models

Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Known-fate data from marked individuals are commonly used to estimate survival rates, whereas N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate multiple demographic parameters. However, a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. Here we develop an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We demonstrate our approach through both simulations and an applied example using four years of known-fate and pack count data for wolves (Canis lupus). Simulation results indicated that the integrated model reliably recovered parameters with no evidence of bias, and survival estimates were more precise under the joint model. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased toward individuals with higher apparent survival rates than the unmarked pack mates, suggesting that joint estimates may be more representative of the overall population. Our integrated model is a practical approach for reducing bias while increasing precision and the amount of information gained from mark–resight data sets. We provide implementations in both the BUGS language and an R package.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Identifying ecologically relevant scales of habitat selection: diel habitat selection in elk

Although organisms make resource selection decisions at multiple spatiotemporal scales, not all scales are ecologically relevant to any given organism. Ecological patterns and rhythms such as behavioral and climatic patterns may provide a consistent method for identifying ecologically relevant scales of habitat selection. Using elk ( Cervus canadensis ) as an example species, we sought to test the ability of behavioral patterns to empirically partition diel scales for modeling habitat selection. We used model selection to partition diel scales by shifts in dominant behavior and then used resource selection probability functions to model elk habitat selection hierarchically at diel scales within seasons. Model selection distinguished four diel temporal partitions following elk crepuscular behavioral patterns: dawn, midday, dusk, and night. Across seasons, model‐averaged coefficients indicated that elk shifted from selecting grassland cover at dawn/dusk, to selecting for greater canopy and forest cover at midday, and then to areas with greater herbaceous biomass at night. Top models changed between diel intervals in spring and fall but stayed the same across diel intervals in winter and summer. In winter, elk selected for southern aspects during midday, for unburned areas at dawn/dusk, and for areas burned within 1–3 yr at dawn/dusk and night. In spring, elk selected for northern aspects and for areas burned within 1–3 yr at midday, for areas farther from roads at dawn/dusk and midday, and for areas farther from water at midday. In summer, elk changed diel preferences for fewer covariates: At dawn/dusk and midday, elk selected for areas farther from water and avoided forest cover, and at night, elk selected for areas burned within 1–3 yr. In fall, elk selected for areas burned the previous year at dawn/dusk and night, for higher elevations at midday, and for areas closer water at night. Using behavioral patterns to identify ecologically relevant scales can help identify overlooked habitat requirements such as diel changes in preference for fire history, forage availability, and cover. We show that the ecological relevancy of a given scale (e.g., a diel temporal scale) can change throughout a given extent (e.g., across seasons).

New Mexico↗

USGS2024

Genetic analysis of harvest samples reveals population structure in a highly mobile generalist carnivore

Delineating wildlife population boundaries is important for effective population monitoring and management. The bobcat ( Lynx rufus ) is a highly mobile generalist carnivore that is ecologically and economically important. We sampled 1225 bobcats harvested in South Dakota, USA (2014–2019), of which 878 were retained to assess genetic diversity and infer population genetic structure using 17 microsatellite loci. We assigned individuals to genetic clusters ( K ) using spatial and nonspatial Bayesian clustering algorithms and quantified differentiation ( F ST and GST″ ) among clusters. We found support for population genetic structure at K = 2 and K = 4, with pairwise F ST and GST″ values indicating weak to moderate differentiation, respectively, among clusters. For K = 2, eastern and western clusters aligned closely with historical bobcat management units and were consistent with a longitudinal suture zone for bobcats previously identified in the Great Plains. We did not observe patterns of population genetic structure aligning with major rivers or highways. Genetic divergence observed at K = 4 aligned roughly with ecoregion breaks and may be associated with environmental gradients, but additional sampling with more precise locational data may be necessary to validate these patterns. Our findings reveal that cryptic population structure may occur in highly mobile and broadly distributed generalist carnivores, highlighting the importance of considering population structure when establishing population monitoring programs or harvest regulations. Our study further demonstrates that for elusive furbearers, harvest can provide an efficient, broad-scale sampling approach for genetic population assessments.

South Dakota↗

USGS2023

Testing the hierarchy of predictability in grassland restoration across a gradient of environmental severity

Ecological restoration is critical for recovering degraded ecosystems but is challenged by variable success and low predictability. Understanding which outcomes are more predictable and less variable following restoration can improve restoration effectiveness. Recent theory asserts that the predictability of outcomes would follow an order from most to least predictable from coarse to fine community properties (physical structure > taxonomic diversity > functional composition > taxonomic composition) and that predictability would increase with more severe environmental conditions constraining species establishment. We tested this “hierarchy of predictability” hypothesis by synthesizing outcomes along an aridity gradient with 11 grassland restoration projects across the United States. We used 1829 vegetation monitoring plots from 227 restoration treatments, spread across 52 sites. We fit generalized linear mixed-effects models to predict six indicators of restoration outcomes as a function of restoration characteristics (i.e., seed mixes, disturbance, management actions, time since restoration) and used variance explained by models and model residuals as proxies for restoration predictability. We did not find consistent support for our hypotheses. Physical structure was among the most predictable outcomes when the response variable was relative abundance of grasses, but unpredictable for total canopy cover. Similarly, one dimension of taxonomic composition related to species identities was unpredictable, but another dimension of taxonomic composition indicating whether exotic or native species dominated the community was highly predictable. Taxonomic diversity (i.e., species richness) and functional composition (i.e., mean trait values) were intermittently predictable. Predictability also did not increase consistently with aridity. The dimension of taxonomic composition related to the identity of species in restored communities was more predictable (i.e., smaller residuals) in more arid sites, but functional composition was less predictable (i.e., larger residuals), and other outcomes showed no significant trend. Restoration outcomes were most predictable when they related to variation in dominant species, while those responding to rare species were harder to predict, indicating a potential role of scale in restoration predictability. Overall, our results highlight additional factors that might influence restoration predictability and add support to the importance of continuous monitoring and active management beyond one-time seed addition for successful grassland restoration in the United States.

Continental United States↗

USGS2017

Using a gradient in food quality to infer drivers of fatty acid content in two filter-feeding aquatic consumers

Inferences about ecological structure and function are often made using elemental or macromolecular tracers of food web structure. For example, inferences about food chain length are often made using stable isotope ratios of top predators and consumer food sources are often inferred from both stable isotopes and fatty acid (FA) content in consumer tissues. The use of FAs as tracers implies some degree of macromolecular conservation across trophic interactions, but many FAs are subject to physiological alteration and animals may produce those FAs from precursors in response to food deficiencies. We measured 41 individual FAs and several aggregate FA metrics in two filter-feeding taxa to (1) assess ecological variation in food availability and (2) identify potential drivers of among-site variation in FA content. These taxa were filter feeding caddisflies (Family Hydropyschidae) and dreissenid mussels (Genus Dreissena ), which both consume seston. Stable isotopic composition (C and N) in these taxa co-varied across 13 sites in the Great Lakes region of North America, indicating they fed on very similar food resources. However, co-variation in FA content was very limited, with only one common FA co-varying across this gradient (α-linolenic acid; ALA), suggesting these taxa accumulate FAs very differently even when exposed to the same foods. Based on these results, among-site variation in ALA content in both consumers does appear to be driven by food resources, along with several other FAs in dreissenid mussels. We conclude that single-taxa measurements of FA content cannot be used to infer FA availability in food resources.

Lake Erie, Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, Lake Ontario↗

USGS2022

The gap between experts, farmers and non-farmers on perceived environmental vulnerability and the influence of values and beliefs

Science has played a mixed role in guiding conservation and sustainability-oriented decision-making by individuals, policymakers, institutions, and governments. Not all science-based conservation and sustainability initiatives that address issues facing humanity and ecosystems and global problems have gained public support. Conservation decisions and policy prescriptions are and may be based on perceptions about and experiences with the environment, local land use, and ecosystems that may not align with or be grounded in science or evidence from experts in the field. Values, beliefs, and perceptions associated with nature play a critical role in how individuals view biodiversity conservation, sustainability, and natural resource management . This study first examines the gap between experts (scientists and other field experts) and the public (farmers and non-farmers) about the state of water and land resources, wildlife and associated habitats, and aquatic biodiversity in the Smoky Hill River Watershed in western Kansas. Second, the study examines the role that values and beliefs play in shaping environmental perceptions for farmers and non-farmers. Analysis confirms that a gap between experts and farmers/non-farmers does exist, especially with respect to the state of the Ogallala Aquifer, playas, rivers and streams, lakes and reservoirs, native grasslands, wildlife habitats, farmland, native fish populations, and wildlife species. Ordered-logistic regression analyses, meanwhile, indicate that farmer and non-farmer perceptions about the state of the local environment are influenced by traditional and self-interested values, as well as environmental values and beliefs, but less so by religiosity and political ideology. Despite broad takeaways, results exhibited heterogeneity across the farmer and non-farmer subpopulations. If environmental professionals cannot align ecological data, stakeholders’ values/perceptions, and policies, then the existing body of technical research and management on sustainability in natural and social sciences may be of little value.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2014

Ecological factors affecting Rainbow Smelt recruitment in the main basin of Lake Huron, 1976-2010

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are native to northeastern Atlantic and Pacific–Arctic drainages and have been widely introduced throughout North America. In the Great Lakes region, Rainbow Smelt are known predators and competitors of native fish and a primary prey species in pelagic food webs. Despite their widespread distribution, importance as a prey species, and potential to negatively interact with native fish species, there is limited information concerning stock–recruitment relationships for Rainbow Smelt. To better understand recruitment mechanisms, we evaluated potential ecological factors determining recruitment dynamics for Rainbow Smelt in Lake Huron using data from bottom trawl catches. We specifically evaluated influence of stock size, environmental factors (water temperature, lake levels, and precipitation), and salmonine predation on the production of age-0 recruits from 1976 to 2010. Rainbow Smelt recruitment was negatively related to stock size exceeding 10 kg/ha, indicating that compensatory, density-dependent mortality from cannibalism or intraspecific competition was an important factor related to the production of age-0 recruits. Recruitment was positively related to spring precipitation suggesting that the amount of stream-spawning habitat as determined by precipitation was important for the production of strong Rainbow Smelt recruitment. Additionally, density of age-0 Rainbow Smelt was positively related to Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush abundance. However, spawning stock biomass of Rainbow Smelt, which declined substantially from 1989 to 2010, was negatively associated with Lake Trout catch per effort suggesting predation was an important factor related to the decline of age-2 and older Rainbow Smelt in Lake Huron. As such, we found that recruitment of Rainbow Smelt in Lake Huron was regulated by competition with or cannibalism by older conspecifics, spring precipitation influencing stream spawning habitats, and predation by Lake Trout on age-2 and older Rainbow Smelt.

Great Lakes;Lake Huron↗

USGS2002

Economic and ecological impacts of abrupt climate change

M ost studies of the potential ecological and economic impacts of climate change and greenhouse warming have focused on scenarios that involve gradual climate change. Accumulating evidence from the paleosciences, however, shows that the patterns of change suggested by projections of future climate change are not representative of past climatic changes or of the transitions between different climatic regimes. In particular, many recent paleostudies indicate that current climate is much more stable than were climates in earlier periods.

Book chapter↗

USGS2001

Nature reserves: Do they capture the full range of America's biological diversity?

Less than 6% of the coterminous United States is in nature reserves. Assessment of the occurrence of nature reserves across ranges of elevation and soil productivity classes indicates that nature reserves are most frequently found at higher elevations and on less productive soils. The distribution of plants and animals suggests that the greatest number of species is found at lower elevations. A preliminary assessment of the occurrence of mapped land cover types indicates that ???60% of mapped cover types have <10% of their area in nature reserves Land ownership patterns show that areas of lower elevation and more productive soils are most often privately owned and already extensively converted to urban and agricultural uses. Thus any effort to establish a system of nature reserves that captures the full geographical and ecological range of cover types and species must fully engage the private sector.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS1963

Disease and infection in the Tetraonidae

Disease is one of many factors advanced to explain the fluctuations of grouse populations, but no profound study of natural disease losses in Tetraonidae exists. The literature contains frequent references to THE grouse disease, although many potential pathogens are listed in numerous surveys and limited investigations, and the relevant data indicate that no single etiologic agent is universally responsible for disease in grouse. Few experimental infections or related studies on parasite biology have been attempted. Well-trained personnel and specialized facilities are required for research and analysis (1) to develop new methods of interpretation to be used with existing census techniques, (2) to conduct intensive studies of ecological factors of host and habitat, and (3) to establish base lines for recognition of deviations from the norm. Disease in wildlife can be controlled only through management procedures based on information concerning the biology of pathogens, hosts, and environments. It cannot be studied as a separate entity if its impact on survival or population fluctuations of grouse is to be correctly assessed.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2008

Temporal Differences in the Hydrologic Regime of the Lower Platte River, Nebraska, 1895-2006

In cooperation with the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District for a collaborative study of the cumulative effects of water and channel management practices on stream and riparian ecology, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled, analyzed, and summarized hydrologic information from long-term gaging stations on the lower Platte River to determine any significant temporal differences among six discrete periods during 1895-2006 and to interpret any significant changes in relation to changes in climatic conditions or other factors. A subset of 171 examined hydrologic indices (HIs) were selected for use as indices that (1) included most of the variance in the larger set of indices, (2) retained utility as indicators of the streamflow regime, and (3) provided information at spatial and temporal scale(s) that were most indicative of streamflow regime(s). The study included the most downstream station within the central Platte River segment that flowed to the confluence with the Loup River and all four active streamflow-gaging stations (2006) on the lower Platte River main stem extending from the confluence of the Loup River and Platte River to the confluence of the Platte River and Missouri River south of Omaha. The drainage areas of the five streamflow-gaging stations covered four (of eight) climate divisions in Nebraska?division 2 (north central), 3 (northeast), 5 (central), and 6 (east central). Historical climate data and daily streamflow records from 1895 through 2006 at the five streamflow-gaging stations were divided into six 11-water-year periods: 1895?1905, 1934?44, 1951?61, 1966?76, 1985?95, and 1996?2006. Analysis of monthly climate variables?precipitation and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index?was used to determine the degree of hydroclimatic association between streamflow and climate. Except for the 1895?1905 period, data gaps in the streamflow record were filled by data estimation techniques, and 171 hydrologic indices were calculated using the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process software developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. A subset of 27 nonredundant indices (of the 171 indices) was selected using principal component analysis. Indices that described monthly streamflow?mean, maximum, minimum, skewness, and coefficients of variation?also were used. Comparison of these selected indices allowed determination of temporal differences among the six 11-water-year periods for each gaging station. The lower Platte River basin was affected by moderate to severe drought conditions in the 1934?44 period. The widespread drought was preceded by mildly to moderately wet conditions in the 1895?1906 period, followed by incipient drought to incipiently wet conditions in the 1951?61 periods and mildly wet conditions in 1966?76 period, moderately wet conditions in the 1985?1995 period, and incipient drought to mildly wet conditions in the 1996?2006 period. Monthly streamflow of the Platte River from Duncan through Louisville, Nebraska, correlated significantly with the monthly Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. Temporal differences in median values of monthly-mean and monthly-maximum streamflow measured at Duncan, North Bend, and Ashland stations between the two moderately wet periods (1895?1905 and 1985?95) indicated that streamflow storage reservoirs and regulation some time after 1906 significantly reduced monthly streamflow magnitude and amplitude?the difference between the highest and lowest median values of monthly mean streamflow. Effects of storage reservoirs on the median values of monthly-minimum streamflow were less obvious. Temporal differences among the other five periods, from 1934 through 2006 when streamflow was affected by storage and regulation, indicated the predominant effects of contrasting climate conditions on median values of monthly mean, maximum, and minimum streamflow. Significant temporal differences in monthly streamflow values were evident mainly between the two periods of greatly

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2020

Spatial and temporal patterns in streamflow, water chemistry, and aquatic macroinvertebrates of selected streams in Fairfax County, Virginia, 2007–18

Urbanization substantially alters the landscape in ways that can impact stream hydrology, water chemistry, and the health of aquatic communities. Stormwater best management practices (BMPs) are the primary tools used to mitigate the effects of urban stressors such as increased runoff, decreased baseflow, and increased nutrient and sediment transport. To date, Fairfax County Virginia’s stormwater management program has made substantial investments into the implementation of both structural and nonstructural BMPs aimed at restoring and protecting watersheds. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Fairfax County, Virginia, established a long-term water-resources monitoring program to evaluate the watershed-scale effects of these investments. Monitoring began at 14 stations in 2007 and was expanded to 20 stations in 2013. This report utilized the first 10 years of data collection to (1) assess water quantity and quality, as well as ecological condition; (2) compute annual nutrient and sediment loads; and (3) evaluate trends in streamflow, water quality, and ecological condition. Efforts are underway to link the biotic and abiotic patterns described herein to watershed management practices as well as factors such as land use change, public works infrastructure, and climate. Hydrologic, chemical, and benthic macroinvertebrate community conditions in the streams monitored were similar to those observed in other studies of urban streams. Multidecadal trends in baseflow indices and runoff ratios at long-term Chesapeake Bay Non-tidal Network streamgages (CB-NTN) indicate a decrease in groundwater recharge and increase in storm runoff as a result of urbanization. Streamflow yields varied spatially with land cover, geology, and soil characteristics, whereas flashiness was positively related to impervious area. Dissolved oxygen typically was lowest in the Coastal Plain and across all Triassic Lowlands streams, and highest in the Piedmont. Dissolved oxygen concentrations generally were above Virginia’s minimum criterion of 4.0 milligrams per liter (mg/L), most violations occurred at Paul Spring Branch in the Coastal Plain during the warmest months of the year owing to increased chemical and biological oxygen demand. Typical pH values of the monitored streams centered on neutrality (pH = 7); however, diurnal fluctuations were most prevalent in the continuous pH data at Flatlick Branch (FLAT; a Triassic Lowlands station), as a result of increased photosynthesis catalyzed by phosphorus-rich geology. Specific conductance (SC) varied spatially owing to geology (highest at Triassic Lowlands stations) and anthropogenic disturbance (watersheds with high impervious land cover). Specific conductance typically was inversely related to streamflow except in winter months following deicing road salt applications, when values increased by several orders of magnitude. A significant increase in SC of about 2 percent per year was observed from the combined trend result of all monitoring stations over the 10-year period. Significant SC increases occurred at nearly all monitoring stations. Increasing trends were observed during winter and nonwinter months, which suggests that salts applied to deice roadways and other impervious surfaces are stored in the environment and released year-round. Suspended-sediment (SS) concentrations in monthly samples did not vary significantly between most stations, but typically were highest in the spring and lowest in the fall as a result of seasonal differences in streamflow and climate. Suspended-sediment yields ranged from 62 to 1,428 tons per square mile (ton/mi 2 ), with a median of 302 ton/mi 2 . Annual loads were greatest during the wettest water years (October 1-September 30; 2008, 2011, and 2014), with the greatest interannual variability occurring at Difficult Run above Fox Lake (DIFF) and South Fork Little Difficult Run (SFLIL). Suspended sediment was primarily composed of silts and clays; however, the proportion of sand in suspended sediment was related positively to streamflow. Cross-correlation analyses suggested the dominant sources of SS were streambank erosion and resuspension of in-channel material at DIFF and FLAT; whereas, upland sources and erosion of upper streambanks were more common at Dead Run (DEAD), Long Branch (LONG), and SFLIL. Median total phosphorus (TP) concentrations ranged from 0.016 to 0.077 mg/L, with a networkwide median of 0.022 mg/L, were highest in the warm season (April-September), and were composed primarily of dissolved phosphorous. Although TP concentrations were relatively low across the network, the highest concentrations were consistently at stations located in the Triassic Lowlands, owing to phosphorous-rich geology, and in the Coastal Plain, owing to the low-phosphorous sorptive capacity of those soils. A significant increase in TP concentration occurred in a few stations, but the combined trend results from all stations demonstrated a significant increase of about 4 percent per year. Networkwide increases were also observed in total dissolved phosphorus, orthophosphate, and total particulate phosphorus. The composition of TP shifted from dissolved to particulate as streamflow increased and for this reason loads primarily were composed of particulate phosphorous. Median annual TP loads were highest at FLAT and DEAD and ranged from 247 to 642 pounds per square mile (lbs/mi 2 ) networkwide. Interannual variability in phosphorous yields was apparent at most stations; the highest loading years were also the wettest years during the study period and coincident with the highest peak annual flows. Total nitrogen (TN) concentrations typically were low throughout the network with exceptions occurring at stations located in watersheds with a high density of septic infrastructure. Elevated TN concentrations also were observed in some watersheds without a high density of septic systems and may be attributable to geologic and soil properties that limit denitrification as well as other unknown anthropogenic inputs. Total nitrogen typically was dominated by nitrate during baseflows; however, the proportion of particulate nitrogen increased during stormflows. Total nitrogen yields were similar across stations, with medians ranging from about 3,600 to 6,300 lbs/mi 2 and were related to annual streamflow volume. Total nitrogen concentrations and flow-normalized concentrations decreased over the 10-year period at 7 stations, with median reductions of about 2.5 percent. Increasing trends were observed at the two stations with the highest median TN concentration (Captain Hickory Run and SFLIL, 3–5 mg/L), both watersheds contain a high density of septic infrastructure. The combined trend results from all stations revealed no trend in TN and a declining trend in nitrate of about 2 percent per year. Overall, benthic community metrics indicated that streams throughout Fairfax County were initially of poor health; however, many metrics show an improving trend (from poor to fair based on the Fairfax County Index of Biological Integrity [IBI]). Significant increasing trends in IBI occurred at the network-scale and at 4 individual stations; additionally, scores improved by at least 1 qualitative category (for example, poor to fair, fair to good) at 11 of the 14 stations between 2009 (the first year all 14 stations were sampled) and 2017. Changes in all metrics suggest that the biodiversity, function, and condition of streams in Fairfax County are improving, but some of these improvements are driven by increased diversity and percent composition of organisms that are tolerant of the urban environment.

Virginia↗

USGS2019

Natural resource condition assessment: Channel Islands National Park

The Natural Resource Condition Assessment (NRCA) Program aims to provide documentation about the current conditions of important Park natural resources through a spatially explicit, multidisciplinary synthesis of existing scientific data and knowledge. Findings from the NRCA will help Channel Islands National Park (CINP) managers to develop near-term management priorities. The central objectives of this assessment were to evaluate the current conditions and trends of key Park resources, identify important knowledge gaps, and determine key stressors and threats. Because a recent report provided an assessment of marine resources (Engle 2006), which constitute 50% of the park, this NRCA focused on terrestrial resources. For this NRCA, CINP resource managers identified that the greatest Park need was to know whether or not vegetation (primarily woody vegetation) is recovering on the Channel Islands and how this may be influencing recovery of the native terrestrial vertebrates. To address this, the CINP NRCA team evaluated the condition of island vegetation and vertebrate communities using both: 1) already available, summarized information from reports, theses, and journal articles and 2) new analyses of recently available, existing data collected on the islands. Descriptions of specific methods used to analyze available data by the NRCA team are provided within the assessment sections in Chapter 4 of this report. The Team used the Vital Signs indicators as identified by Fancy et al. (2009) for monitoring the condition of Natural Resources in U.S. National Parks. Using this framework, the focal study resource components were the five CINP islands, because these are the bio-geophysical resources of greatest interest to the CINP. Each of the islands has its own unique history of human impacts, ecological conditions, restoration efforts, and natural resource monitoring. The Team evaluated island scrub recovery by assessing changes over time in two metrics: 1) vegetation community structure (species composition, cover, and spatial extent), and 2) vertebrate abundance, relative to the reference condition of each island. The reference conditions for this NRCA were the particular island’s ecological state prior to European settlement or ranching, which represent the ecological state to which the NPS desires the park return. For each metric, the Team determined the Reference Conditions/Values, Current Condition, Trend, and Recovery Potential (based on a review of the literature and from the NRCA team’s analysis of newly available data), Threats and Stressors, Data Gaps, Overall Condition. A qualitative statement of overall current condition was created for each metric, after all data and literature relevant to the measures (i.e., vegetation and vertebrates) of each resource component (i.e., island) were reviewed and evaluated. All information gathered for this NRCA is available and managed by CINP, so that the compilation of resources would be available not only for the assessment team, but will be provided for future Park reference. Chapter 1 of this NRCA provides a descriptive background of NRCAs. Chapter 2 provides Park-wide natural resource background information, while Chapter 3 describes the overall methodological approach used in this assessment. Chapter 4 provides a detailed assessment of each island’s condition, which is then summarized Park-wide and for each island in Chapter 5. Based on both vegetation recovery and vertebrate population abundances, our assessment found Santa Cruz Island (SCI), Santa Rosa Island (SRI), San Miguel Island (SMI), and Anacapa Island (AI) to be, overall, in moderate condition and slowly recovering following the removal of non-native herbivores. The condition of Santa Barbara Island (SBI) is poor and remains in a state that is not likely to improve without assisted recovery by the Park. All islands have exhibited some level of native vegetation recovery, with most of the observed natural recovery occurring on SCI, SRI, SMI, and AI; very little recovery has occurred at present on SBI. Vegetation recovery is uneven across each island and largely limited to mesic areas, such as north-facing slopes. Areas that will likely require some assisted recovery efforts are those that are: at risk of erosion, isolated, lacking native seed banks, and plagued with high competition of non-native grasses and other invasives. Some plant communities, such as exposed upland vegetation on SRI, also have lower natural recovery potential and will likely require assisted recovery. The overall condition of the Park’s terrestrial island vertebrate species generally appears to be good and improving, with high potential for further recovery to reach pre-ranching era reference conditions. This is particularly true for vertebrates on SCI, SRI, and SMI. Although there are limited data for AI, the data that are available suggest that vertebrates on that island are in good condition and improving as well. However, the condition of SBI vertebrates is only moderate, with natural recovery potential being low, with many landbird species’ populations currently declining, extinct, or not improving. An overarching theme across the Park’s terrestrial island vertebrate populations is that many of them are in good condition because the particular animals are habitat generalists, so their population dynamics are not strongly tied to habitat conditions. However, those landbirds associated with riparian vegetation are not showing signs of recovery across the Park islands, and riparian areas appear to be one of the habitats with limited natural recovery potential on the islands. Overwhelmingly, the most critical data gap that emerged from our analysis was the lack of current vegetation maps for most of the islands (AI, SCI, SRI, SMI). The lack of this information made it difficult to assess spatial changes in island vegetation over time, and to relate those changes to observed changes in vertebrate species abundances. Therefore, we were limited in our spatial assessment of vegetation recovery for AI, SCI, SRI, and SMI, and were only able to relate the current vegetation with island landbird analysis for SBI. Another common theme across islands was the lack of information on best techniques for shrub reintroduction and recovery, and the success of invasive species removal and re-vegetation efforts. Abundance, distribution, and habitat affinities of reptiles and amphibians are poorly known for AI, SCI, SRI, and SMI, making it difficult to assess their population condition and trends, and their potential responses to shrub recovery. Mammal and landbird populations are reasonably well-sampled across most of the islands, but data are lacking for most vertebrates from AI, especially West and Middle AI where no vertebrate sampling occurs. The population status, cause of declines, and recovery needs are lacking for several landbird species across multiple islands, including loggerhead shrikes ( Lanius ludovicianus ssp.) on SCI and SRI, and Santa Cruz Island rufous crowned sparrows ( Aimophila ruficeps obscura ) on AI. Additionally, island song sparrows ( Melospiza melodia graminea ) remain extirpated on SBI and data are needed for assessing their recovery potential on the island. The potentially major threats facing the islands’ flora and fauna today are: areas of continued erosion, potential new non-native introductions, and climate change. The Park islands have already experienced warming over the last several decades due to human-induced climate change, and are projected to experience continued warming. These increasing stresses imposed by climate change may slow and inhibit natural recovery potentials for island fauna, and especially flora.

California↗