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USGS2018

Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 ± 16.0 km 2 ) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.

California↗

USGS1993

Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

INTERACTIVE WORKSHOPS: ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS RESEARCH AND REDUCTION PROGRAM IN THE WASATCH FRONT, UTAH: Interactive workshops provided the forum and stimulus necessary to foster collaboration among the participants in the multidisciplinary, 5-yr program of earthquake hazards reduction in the Wasatch Front, Utah. The workshop process validated well-documented social science theories on the importance of interpersonal interaction, including interaction between researchers and users of research to increase the probability that research will be relevant to the user's needs and, therefore, more readily used. REDUCING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN UTAH: THE CRUCIAL CONNECTION BETWEEN RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS: Complex scientific and engineering studies must be translated for and transferred to nontechnical personnel for use in reducing earthquake hazards in Utah. The three elements needed for effective translation, likelihood of occurrence, location, and severity of potential hazards, and the three elements needed for effective transfer, delivery, assistance, and encouragement, are described and illustrated for Utah. The importance of evaluating and revising earthquake hazard reduction programs and their components is emphasized. More than 30 evaluations of various natural hazard reduction programs and techniques are introduced. This report was prepared for research managers, funding sources, and evaluators of the Utah earthquake hazard reduction program who are concerned about effectiveness. An overview of the Utah program is provided for those researchers, engineers, planners, and decisionmakers, both public and private, who are committed to reducing human casualties, property damage, and interruptions of socioeconomic systems. PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION POLICIES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT IN UTAH: The earthquake hazard potential along the Wasatch Front in Utah has been well defined by a number of scientific and engineering studies. Translated earthquake hazard maps have also been developed to identify areas that are particularly vulnerable to various causes of damage such as ground shaking, surface rupturing, and liquefaction. The implementation of earthquake hazard reduction plans are now under way in various communities in Utah. The results of a survey presented in this paper indicate that technical public officials (planners and building officials) have an understanding of the earthquake hazards and how to mitigate the risks. Although the survey shows that the general public has a slightly lower concern about the potential for economic losses, they recognize the potential problems and can support a number of earthquake mitigation measures. The study suggests that many community groups along the Wasatch Front, including volunteer groups, business groups, and elected and appointed officials, are ready for action-oriented educational programs. These programs could lead to a significant reduction in the risks associated with earthquake hazards. A DATA BASE DESIGNED FOR URBAN SEISMIC HAZARDS STUDIES: A computerized data base has been designed for use in urban seismic hazards studies conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The design includes file structures for 16 linked data sets, which contain geological, geophysical, and seismological data used in preparing relative ground response maps of large urban areas. The data base is organized along relational data base principles. A prototype urban hazards data base has been created for evaluation in two urban areas currently under investigation: the Wasatch Front region of Utah and the Puget Sound area of Washington. The initial implementation of the urban hazards data base was accomplished on a microcomputer using dBASE III Plus software and transferred to minicomputers and a work station. A MAPPING OF GROUND-SHAKING INTENSITIES FOR SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH: This paper documents the development of maps showing a

Professional Paper↗

USGS2022

How much marsh restoration is enough to deliver wave attenuation coastal protection benefits?

As coastal communities grow more vulnerable to sea-level rise and increased storminess, communities have turned to nature-based solutions to bolster coastal resilience and protection. Marshes have significant wave attenuation properties and can play an important role in coastal protection for many communities. Many restoration projects seek to maximize this ecosystem service but how much marsh restoration is enough to deliver measurable coastal protection benefits is still unknown. This question is critical to guiding assessments of cost effectiveness and for funding, implementation, and optimizing of marsh restoration for risk reduction projects. This study uses SWAN model simulations to determine empirical relationships between wave attenuation and marsh vegetation. The model runs consider several different common marsh morphologies (including systems with channels, ponds, and fringing mudflats), vegetation placement, and simulated storm intensity. Up to a 95% reduction in wave energy is seen at as low as 50% vegetation cover. Although these empirical relationships between vegetative cover and wave attenuation provide essential insight for marsh restoration, it is also important to factor in lifespan estimates of restored marshes when making overall restoration decisions. The results of this study are important for coastal practitioners and managers seeking performance goals and metrics for marsh restoration, enhancement, and creation.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2017

Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks

Early resolution of uncertainty during an epidemic outbreak can lead to rapid and efficient decision making, provided that the uncertainty affects prioritization of actions. The wide range in caseload projections for the 2014 Ebola outbreak caused great concern and debate about the utility of models. By coding and running 37 published Ebola models with five candidate interventions, we found that, despite this large variation in caseload projection, the ranking of management options was relatively consistent. Reducing funeral transmission and reducing community transmission were generally ranked as the two best options. Value of information (VoI) analyses show that caseloads could be reduced by 11% by resolving all model-specific uncertainties, with information about model structure accounting for 82% of this reduction and uncertainty about caseload only accounting for 12%. Our study shows that the uncertainty that is of most interest epidemiologically may not be the same as the uncertainty that is most relevant for management. If the goal is to improve management outcomes, then the focus of study should be to identify and resolve those uncertainties that most hinder the choice of an optimal intervention. Our study further shows that simplifying multiple alternative models into a smaller number of relevant groups (here, with shared structure) could streamline the decision-making process and may allow for a better integration of epidemiological modeling and decision making for policy.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2024

Streamflow timing and magnitude during snow drought depend on snow drought type and regional hydroclimate

Communities around the world rely on snowmelt to meet water demands, and periods of lower than normal snow accumulation, snow droughts, can decrease water supplies. Leveraging 172 minimally disturbed and seasonally snow-covered watersheds, we developed an approach to examine the effects of cool & dry, warm & dry, and warm & wet snow droughts on streamflow timing and magnitude by hydrologic region. Our results showed all types of snow droughts in all regions correlate with lower annual streamflow, lower maximum and minimum flows, and lower runoff ratios, with more numerous low flow days and earlier streamflow timing. However, departures from non-snow drought conditions differed substantially between drought types and regions. Consecutive snow droughts further reduced runoff ratios and increased low flow days, likely due to additional subsurface storage depletion. With warm snow drought occurrence expected to increase, we discuss impacts for water management systems whose design specifications may not reflect the changing hydroclimate.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

USGS2019

Is there convergence of gut microbes in blood-feeding vertebrates?

Animal microbiomes play an important role in dietary adaptation, yet the extent to which microbiome changes exhibit parallel evolution is unclear. Of particular interest is an adaptation to extreme diets, such as blood, which poses special challenges in its content of proteins and lack of essential nutrients. In this study, we assessed taxonomic signatures (by 16S rRNA amplicon profiling) and potential functional signatures (inferred by Phylogenetic Investigation of Communities by Reconstruction of Unobserved States (PICRUSt)) of haematophagy in birds and bats. Our goal was to test three alternative hypotheses: no convergence of microbiomes, convergence in taxonomy and convergence in function. We find a statistically significant effect of haematophagy in terms of microbial taxonomic convergence across the blood-feeding bats and birds, although this effect is small compared to the differences found between haematophagous and non-haematophagous species within the two host clades. We also find some evidence of convergence at the predicted functional level, although it is possible that the lack of metagenomic data and the poor representation of microbial lineages adapted to haematophagy in genome databases limit the power of this approach. The results provide a paradigm for exploring convergent microbiome evolution replicated with independent contrasts in different host lineages.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2002

Abstracts of the annual Planetary Geologic Mappers Meeting, June 18-19, 2001, Albuquerque, New Mexico

The annual Planetary Geologic Mappers Meeting serves two purposes. In addition to giving mappers the opportunity to exchange ideas, experiences, victories, and problems with others, presentations are reviewed by the Geologic Mapping Subcommittee (GeMS) to provide input to the Planetary Geology and Geophysics Mapping Program review panel’s consideration of new proposals and progress reports that include mapping tasks. Funded mappers bring both oral presentation materials (slides or viewgraphs) and map products to post for review by GeMS and fellow mappers. Additionally, the annual meetings typically feature optional field trips offering earth analogs and parallels to planetary mapping problems. The 2001 Mappers Meeting, June 18-19, was convened by Tim Parker, Dave Senske, and Ken Tanaka and was hosted by Larry Crumpler and Jayne Aubele of the New Mexico Museum of Natural History and Science in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Oral presentations were given in the Museum’s Honeywell Auditorium, and maps were posted in the Sandia Room. In addition to active mappers, guests included local science teachers who had successfully competed for the right to attend and listen to the reports. It was a unique pleasure for mappers to have the opportunity to interact with and provide information to teachers responding so enthusiastically to the meeting presentation. On Sunday, June 17, Larry and Jayne conducted an optional pre-meeting field trip. The flanks of Rio Grande Rift, east and west of Albuquerque and Valles Caldera north of town presented tectonic, volcanic, and sedimentary examples of the Rift and adjoining areas analogous to observed features on Mars and Venus. The arid but volcanically and tectonically active environment of New Mexico’s rift valley enables focus on features that appear morphologically young and spectacular in satellite images and digital relief models. The theme of the trip was to see what, at orbiter resolution, "obvious" geologic features look like at lander (outcrop) scales. Trips to the top of the rift-flanking mountains (Sandia Peak, 10,600 ft) and the Valles Caldera, as well as various active spring deposits highlighted the day. After welcoming remarks from the host, Larry Crumpler, opening remarks by Tim Parker and Dave Senske and a report on mapping program status by Ken Tanaka, the mappers’ oral presentations began the morning of June 18, with a session on Venus Geologic Mapping. The afternoon continued with an exciting USGS Planetary GIS on the Web (PIGWAD) demonstration and ended with an open discussion of issues in planetary mapping. Posted maps of Venus quadrangles were viewed during the morning break. Tuesday’s Mars Geologic Mapping session began with a pep talk from Tim Parker encouraging mapping community input to the MER landing site selection committee and continued with Steve Saunders describing the potential contribution of Odyssey Mission data to the geologic mapping of Mars. A Mars map poster session was held during the morning break, and the meeting was adjourned mid-afternoon. After the mappers meeting on Tuesday, attendants were treated to a "Field trip to Mars." The Institute of Meteoritics at the University of New Mexico houses an outstanding collection of meteorites, including those that have been identified as originating from Mars. The Institute tour featured examples of most of the different lithologies exhibited by martian meteorites identified to date, as well as some of the analytical tests (scanning electron microscope) they are conducting on specimens from ALH84001. Wednesday, June 20, featured an optional post-meeting field trip to see a travertine quarry and nearby sites of travertine deposition, the Very Large Array near Socorro, and other volcanic features within the Rio Grande Rift.

New Mexico↗

USGS2018

Influence of governance structure on green stormwater infrastructure investment

Communities are faced with the challenge of meeting regulatory requirements mandating reductions in water pollution from stormwater and combined sewer overflows (CSO). Green stormwater infrastructure and gray stormwater infrastructure are two types of water management strategies communities can use to address water pollution. In this study, we used long-term control plans from 25 U.S. cities to synthesize: the types of gray and green infrastructure being used by communities to address combined sewer overflows; the types of goals set; biophysical characteristics of each city; and factors associated with the governance of stormwater management. These city characteristics were then used to identify common characteristics of “green leader” cities—those that dedicated >20% of the control plan budget in green infrastructure. Five “green leader” cities were identified: Milwaukee, WI, Philadelphia, PA, Syracuse, NY, New York City, NY, and Buffalo, NY. These five cities had explicit green infrastructure goals targeting the volume of stormwater or percentage of impervious cover managed by green infrastructure. Results suggested that the management scale and complexity of the management system are less important factors than the ability to harness a “policy window” to integrate green infrastructure into control plans. Two case studies—Philadelphia, PA, and Milwaukee, WI—indicated that green leader cities have a long history of building momentum for green infrastructure through a series of phases from experimentation, demonstration, and finally—in the case of Philadelphia—a full transition in the approach used to manage CSOs.

Environmental Science and Policy↗

USGS2025

Getting ahead of the crises: Developing an avian malaria disease management plan for Hawaiian forest birds

Avian malaria is an existential threat to a majority of native Hawaiian forest birds. Climate change is facilitating the spread of malaria to historically disease-free areas, and despite the risk of native Hawaiian forest bird extinctions from malaria outbreaks, no comprehensive disease management plans exist for forest bird conservation areas. Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i, supports a thriving bird community in a historically disease-free area that is now vulnerable to malaria incursion. Drawing on the expertise of land managers and research scientists, we developed an approach that could be used to proactively address the risk of expanding malaria into the Refuge. The plan lays out a multi-level approach that includes options for monitoring and management actions depending on defined threat levels: Vigilant, High Alert, Disease Outbreak, and Crisis levels. Initial Vigilant and High Alert levels monitor bird populations, climate conditions, and mosquito occurrence for signs of possible disease outbreaks, with higher levels shifting toward more direct management responses. While specific actions will change as new tools become available, the proactive approach can help Refuge managers better respond to changing malaria levels in the future and provide a model for managing disease here in Hawai‘i and elsewhere.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Assessing the potential to mitigate climate-related expansion of largemouth bass populations using angler harvest

Climate-related changes in fish communities can present new challenges for fishery managers who must address declines in cool- and cold-water sportfish while dealing with increased abundance of warm-water sportfish. We used largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) in Wisconsin lakes as model populations to determine whether angler harvest provides a realistic method for reducing abundance of a popular warm-water sportfish that has become more prevalent and has prompted management concerns around the globe. Model results indicate largemouth bass will be resilient to increased fishing mortality. Furthermore, high rates of voluntary catch-and-release occurring in most largemouth bass fisheries likely preclude fishing mortality rates required to reduce bass abundance at meaningful levels (≥25% reductions). Increasing fishing mortality in these scenarios may require more “stimulus” than merely providing anglers with greater harvest opportunities via less stringent harvest regulations. Angler harvest could result in populations dominated by small fish, a scenario that may be undesirable to anglers, but could provide ecological benefits in certain situations.

Wisconain↗

USGS2022

Quantifying status and trends from monitoring surveys: Application to Pygmy Whitefish (Prosopium coulterii) in Lake Superior

Population assessments of fish species often rely on data from surveys with different objectives, such as measuring biodiversity or community dynamics. These surveys often contain spatial–temporal dependencies that can greatly influence conclusions drawn from analyses. Pygmy whitefish (PWF, Prosopium coulterii ) populations in Lake Superior were recently assessed as Threatened by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Species in Canada, which motivated a thorough analysis of available data to improve our understanding of its population status. The US Geological Survey conducts annual bottom trawl surveys in Lake Superior that commonly capture PWF. We used these data (1989–2018) to model temporal trends in PWF biomass density and make lake-wide population projections. We used a Bayesian approach, integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), and compared the impact of including different random structures on model fit. Inclusion of spatial structure improved model fit and conclusions differed from models omitting random effects. PWF populations have experienced periodic fluctuations in biomass density since 1989, though 2018 may represent the lowest density in the 30-year time series. Lake-wide biomass was estimated to be 71.5 t.

Lake Superior↗

USGS2025

Elevation mediates juvenile steelhead demographic response to stream temperature and flow

Climate change alters streams by modifying flow dynamics, temperature, and biotic communities, changing the habitat where stream dwelling fish have evolved. We used snorkel survey data spanning four decades to investigate how juvenile steelhead (anadromous Oncorhynchus mykiss ) counts and size structure were influenced by stream temperature and flow. Warmer temperatures were associated with lower abundance and larger fish at low elevations and with higher abundance and smaller fish at higher elevations. Low flows were related to increased abundance and smaller fish at low elevations but to decreased abundance at high elevations, suggesting that lower elevation streams, which tend to be larger, provided additional habitat during low flows. High flows were negatively related to abundance and positively related to average size, suggesting emigration of fish in younger age-classes. Overall, steelhead exhibited greater resilience to warm temperatures at high elevations and, conversely, greater resilience to low and high flows at lower elevations. Understanding how streamflow and temperature affect juvenile steelhead abundance and size structure provides insight into how climate change can affect juvenile steelhead production.

Idaho↗

USGS2013

Macroinvertebrate diets reflect tributary inputs and turbidity-driven changes in food availability in the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam

Physical changes to rivers associated with large dams (e.g., water temperature) directly alter macroinvertebrate assemblages. Large dams also may indirectly alter these assemblages by changing the food resources available to support macroinvertebrate production. We examined the diets of the 4 most common macroinvertebrate taxa in the Colorado River through Glen and Grand Canyons, seasonally, at 6 sites for 2.5 y. We compared macroinvertebrate diet composition to the composition of epilithon (rock and cliff faces) communities and suspended organic seston to evaluate the degree to which macroinvertebrate diets tracked downstream changes in resource availability. Diets contained greater proportions of algal resources in the tailwater of Glen Canyon Dam and more terrestrial-based resources at sites downstream of the 1st major tributary. As predicted, macroinvertebrate diets tracked turbidity-driven changes in resource availability, and river turbidity partially explained variability in macroinvertebrate diets. The relative proportions of resources assimilated by macroinvertebrates ranged from dominance by algae to terrestrial-based resources, despite greater assimilation efficiencies for algal than terrestrial C. Terrestrial resources were most important during high turbidity conditions, which occurred during the late-summer monsoon season (July–October) when tributaries contributed large amounts of organic matter to the mainstem and suspended sediments reduced algal production. Macroinvertebrate diets were influenced by seasonal changes in tributary inputs and turbidity, a result suggesting macroinvertebrate diets in regulated rivers may be temporally dynamic and driven by tributary inputs.

Arizona↗

USGS2006

Characterization of sediment trapped by macroalgae on a Hawaiian reef flat

Reef researchers studying community shifts in the balance between corals and fleshy macroalgae have noted that algae are often covered with sediment. This study characterizes sediment trapping by macroalgae within a Hawaiian reef habitat and constrains the controls on this process. Sediment-laden macroalgae were sampled and macroalgal cover was assessed on a wide (???1 km) reef flat off south-central Molokai. Macroalgae trapped a mean of 1.26 (??0.91 SD) grams of sediment per gram of dry weight biomass and that sediment was dominantly terrigenous mud (59% by weight). It was determined that biomass, as a proxy for algal size, and morphology were not strict controls on the sediment trapping process. Over 300 metric tons of sediment were estimated to be retained by macroalgae across 5.75 km2 of reef flat (54 g m-2), suggesting that this process is an important component of sediment budgets. In addition, understanding the character of sediment trapped by macroalgae may help constrain suspended sediment flux and has implications for nutrient dynamics in reef flat environments. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

USGS2020

Aligning climate models with stakeholder needs: Advances in communicating future rainfall uncertainties for south Florida decision makers

Changes in future precipitation are of great importance to climate data users in South Florida. A recent U.S. Geological Survey workshop, “Increasing Confidence in Precipitation Projections for Everglades Restoration,” highlighted a gap between standard climate model outputs and the climate information needs of some key Florida natural resource managers. These natural resource managers (hereafter broadly defined as “climate data users”) need more tailored output than is commonly provided by the climate modeling community. This study responds to these user needs by outlining and testing an adaptable methodology to select output from ensemble climate‐model simulations based on user‐defined precipitation drivers, using statistical methods common across scientific disciplines. This methodology is developed to provide a “decision matrix” that guides climate data users to specify the subset of models most important to their work based on each user's season (winter, summer, and annual) and the condition (dry, wet, neutral, and no threshold events) of interest. The decision matrix is intended to better communicate the subset of models best representing precipitation drivers. This information could increase users' confidence in climate models as a resource for natural resource planning and can be used to direct future dynamical downscaling efforts. This methodology is based in dynamical processes controlling precipitation via remote and local teleconnections. We also suggest that future climate studies in South Florida include high‐resolution climate model runs (i.e., ocean eddy resolving) in conjunction with dynamical downscaling to adequately capture precipitation variability.

South Florida↗

USGS2011

Global biodiversity: Indicators of recent declines

In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species’ population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.

Science↗

USGS2017

Forecasting stream habitat and Brook Trout responses to climate change in Catoctin Mountain Park

Anticipating and mitigating the effects of climate change is a fundamental challenge for natural resource conservation. In this report, we respond to research needs identified by Catoctin Mountain Park (CATO) for native Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) conservation and management as part of the US Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Resources Preservation Program in FY15-16. We addressed three overarching research questions: (1) How will anticipated changes in air temperature affect stream habitats? (2) How will changes to stream habitat affect the distribution of Brook Trout? (3) Which stream segments are most and least vulnerable to the effects of climate change? First, we surveyed Brook Trout abundance and fish community composition using electrofishing techniques within three watersheds: Owens Creek, upper Big Hunting Creek, and Blue Blazes Creek (a tributary to Big Hunting Creek). Second, we deployed a network of stream temperature gages to assess spatial variation in stream temperature and groundwater (GW) influence. Third, we used modeling techniques to forecast future stream temperatures that account for GW influences and air temperature scenarios. Fish sampling detected 13 species and 15,345 individual fish, the majority of which were Blacknose Dace (60%), Blue Ridge Sculpin (26%), and Brook Trout (6%). Brook Trout were not observed in Blue Blazes Creek and exhibited higher densities in Owens Creek than upper Big Hunting Creek (average densities = 19 fish/100 m and 4 fish/100 m, respectively). In contrast, Brown Trout were present in Blue Blazes Creek and exhibited greater density in Blue Blazes Creek than either Owens Creek or upper Big Hunting Creek (average densities = 3.0 fish/100 m, 0.3 fish/100 m, and 1.7 fish/100 m, respectively). Brown Trout occurred in sympatry with Brook Trout in Owens Creek and upper Big Hunting Creek, but appeared to have replaced Brook Trout in Blue Blazes Creek. Our fish surveys also revealed important locations for Brook Trout reproduction and young-of-year (YOY) dispersal within the Owens Creek watershed. Our study also revealed surprising differences in the distribution of Blue Ridge Sculpin among CATO streams. This species was abundant in Owens Creek (average density = 83 fish/100 m) but was less common in Blue Blazes Creek (average density = 12 fish/100 m) and was not detected in upper Big Hunting Creek. Histological examination of several specimens from Blue Blazes Creek by V. Blazer at the USGS Leetown Science Center revealed the presence of a novel parasite (Dermosystidium sp.) which has been linked to fish population declines elsewhere (Blazer et al. 2016). The parasite was not detected in Blue Ridge Sculpin samples from Owens Creek, and all trout appeared to be uninfected. Our survey results suggest that Blue Ridge Sculpin have been extirpated from upper Big Hunting Creek and have not recolonized from downstream source populations due to the fish passage barrier of Cunningham Falls. We recommend additional research to (1) evaluate the feasibility of reintroducing Blue Ridge Sculpin into upper Big Hunting Creek and (2) continue monitoring the distribution and potential spread of Dermocystidium in downstream waters. Stream temperatures ranged from 9.6 – 27.6 ºC during baseflow conditions in 2015 and 2016. Sites within upper Big Hunting Creek were consistently warmer than in Owens Creek or Blue Blazes Creek, suggesting an effect of headwater ponds outside CATO on upper Big Hunting Creek temperatures. For instance, in 2016 the maximum observed temperature in upper Big Hunting Creek was 27.6 ºC whereas Owens Creek reached a maximum of 23.7 ºC that year. Stream temperature data also revealed that 2016 was warmer than 2015 throughout the study area but did not exceed thermal tolerance limits for Brook Trout in either year. We estimated the influence of GW on stream temperatures using a statistical modeling approach based on the relationship between daily mean air temperature and stream temperature over time. Results indicated that effects of GW were generally stronger in the Owens Creek watershed than in Blue Blazes or upper Big Hunting Creek. However, we detected substantial spatial variation in GW influence among Owens Creek sites, with stream temperatures at some locations showing relatively little GW influence and others showing very strong influences (and correspondingly small influence of daily mean air temperatures). Although incoming lateral seeps were detected in upper Big Hunting Creek (D. Ferrier, Hood College, personal communication), the strongest effects of GW in the study area were due to GW upwelling within portions of the Owens Creek watershed (i.e., Tributary C in Figure 4) where we also observed high numbers of Brook Trout juveniles. Our results therefore identified potential high-priority areas for Brook Trout conservation in CATO. Finally, we modeled future stream temperatures based on scenarios characterizing GW sensitivity to air temperature and future air temperature increases. Stream temperature forecasts revealed important differences in habitat suitability for Brook Trout within and among watersheds. Big Hunting Creek sites were generally more sensitive to air temperature increases than sites in Owens Creek or Blue Blazes Creek. For instance, an increase in mean annual air temperature of 1.5 ºC (lowest level evaluated) exceeded thermal thresholds for Brook Trout in the majority of sites within that watershed, regardless of GW influence levels. In contrast, an air temperature increase of 1.5 ºC did not exceed thermal thresholds for Brook Trout in Owens Creek. However, modeled air temperature increases of 5 ºC resulted in a loss of Brook Trout thermal suitability throughout the study area. Model results revealed spatially patchy responses to air temperature increases that could provide an early-warning system for trout monitoring designs in CATO.

Maryland↗

USGS2022

Nitrogen enrichment during soil organic matter burning and molecular evidence of maillard reactions

Wildfires in forested watersheds dramatically alter stored and labile soil organic matter (SOM) pools and the export of dissolved organic matter (DOM). Ecosystem recovery after wildfires depends on soil microbial communities and revegetation and therefore is limited by the availability of nutrients, such as nitrogen-containing and labile, water-soluble compounds. However, SOM byproducts produced at different wildfire intensities are poorly understood, leading to difficulties in assessing wildfire severity and predicting ecosystem recovery. In this work, water-extractable organic matter (WEOM) from laboratory microcosms of soil burned at discrete temperatures was characterized by ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry to study the impacts of fire temperature on SOM and DOM composition. The molecular composition derived from different burn temperatures indicated that nitrogen-containing byproducts were enriched with heating and composed of a wide range of aromatic features and oxidation states. Mass difference-based analysis also suggested that products formed during heating could be modeled using transformations along the Maillard reaction pathway. The enrichment of N-containing SOM and DOM at different soil burning intensities has important implications for ecosystem recovery and downstream water quality.

Environmental Science and Technology↗