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At least 1,315 records · Page 73Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Acadia National Park climate change scenario planning workshop summary

This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine. The primary objective of the workshop was to help Acadia senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures. Here we provide the main conclusions from the scenario planning workshop.

Maine↗
USGS2023

The future of Indiana's water resources: A report from the Indiana climate change impacts assessment

Indiana’s water resources—in streams and lakes, in plants and soils, and underground—are a critical component of the state’s economy and well-being. Availability of this important resource is driven by precipitation and temperature patterns, both of which have shifted in recent decades, and is also highly influenced by how we manage natural and human systems. As local temperatures continue to rise and rainfall patterns shift, managing the multiple water needs of communities, natural systems, recreation, industry, and agriculture will become increasingly difficult. Ensuring that enough water is available in the right places and at the right times will require awareness of Indiana’s changing water resources and planning at regional and state levels. This report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) applies climate change projections for the state to explore how continued changes in Indiana’s climate are going to affect all aspects of water resources, including soil water, evaporation, runoff, snow cover, streamflow, drought, and flooding. The findings presented here are primarily based on the IN CCIA Water Resources Working Group technical report (Cherkauer et al., 2021) and the IN CCIA report Indiana’s Past and Future Climate (Widhalm et al., 2018).

Indiana↗
USGS2024

Climate vulnerability assessment of Oregon hatchery programs

The goal of this project was to assess the vulnerability to climate change impacts for a sample set of hatchery programs representing different geographic areas and primary anadromous species raised in state-managed Oregon hatcheries (Summary Figure 1). Freshwater and marine ecosystem processes can significantly influence salmon and steelhead survival, and understanding how these factors have affected historical returns can help managers evaluate the climate vulnerability of hatchery stocks. We examined stock-specific trends in smolt-to-adult returns (SARs), which represent the proportion of smolts released from the hatchery that are recovered in fisheries or as returning adult spawners. SARs are among the most consistent long term estimators of survival for hatchery-origin stocks. Depending on the stock, adult recoveries could occur in marine fisheries, freshwater fisheries, returns to the hatchery or another collection facility, and spawning ground surveys. We collected time series data on relevant ecological indicators and used generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore both univariate and multivariate relationships with SARs for each hatchery stock. An additional aspect of this assessment was to evaluate the climate vulnerability of resident trout stocking programs in the Department's East and West regions, incorporating insights from Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) staff interviews and published data on the thermal tolerance of hatchery trout stocks. This assessment is provided in the ‘Climate vulnerability of trout stocking programs’ subsection below.

Oregon↗
USGS2025

Insight 4. Climate change and biodiversity loss amplify each other

Key messages: • Climate change is impacting biodiversity from local to global scales, and growing evidence suggests that further loss of biodiversity can contribute to climate change, creating a destabilizing feedback. • Loss of plant diversity due to climate and land-use change can weaken ecosystem functioning, leading to a decrease in biomass accumulation and reduced carbon storage. • Animal biodiversity, both terrestrial and marine, plays a key role in regulating carbon storage through trophic chains and other plant-animal interactions that can alter vegetation structure and composition, affecting biomass accumulation and carbon sequestration. • Natural climate solution initiatives that integrate aspects of ecosystem integrity and species composition, rather than focusing solely on land cover area, can more effectively safeguard the carbon sink function.

Book chapter↗
USGS1992

Late Cenozoic lacustrine and climatic environments at Tule Lake, northern Great Basin, USA

Cores of lake sediment to a depth of 334 m in the town of Tulelake, Siskiyou County, northern California, document the late Cenozoic paleolimnologic and paleoclimatic history of the northwestern edge of the Great Basin. The cores have been dated by radiometric, tephrochronologic and paleomagnetic analyses. Lacustrine diatoms are abundant throughout the record and document a nearly continuous paleolimnologic history of the Tule Lake basin for the last 3 Myr. During most of this time, this basin (Tule Lake) was a relatively deep, extensive lake. Except for a drier (and cooler?) interval recorded by Fragilaria species about 2.4 Ma, the Pliocene is characterized by a dominance of planktonic Aulacoseira solida implying a warm monomictic lake under a climatic regime of low seasonality. Much of the Pleistocene is dominated by Stephanodiscus and Fragilaria species suggesting a cooler, often drier, and highly variable climate. Benthic diatoms typical of alkaline-enriched saline waters commonly appear after 1.0 Ma, and tephrochronology indicates slow deposition and possible hiatuses between about 0.6 and 0.2 Ma. The chronology of even-numbered oxygen isotope stages approximately matches fluctuations in the abundance of Fragilaria since 800 ka indicating that glacial periods were expressed as drier environments at Tule Lake. Glacial and interglacial environments since 150 ka were distinct from, and more variable than, those occurring earlier. The last full glacial period was very dry, but shortly thereafter Tule Lake became a deep, cool lacustrine system indicating a substantial increase in precipitation. Aulacoseira ambigua characterized the latest glacial and Holocene record of Tule Lake. Its distribution indicates that warmer and wetter climates began about 15 ka in this part of the Great Basin. Diatom concentration fluctuates at 41 000 year intervals between 3.0 and 2.5 Ma and at approximately 100 000 year intervals after 1.0 Ma. In the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, Aulacoseira solida percentages wax and wane in an approximately 400 000 year cycle. The possible response of Tule Lake diatom communities to orbitally-induced insolation cycles underscores the importance of this record for the study of late Cenozoic paleoclimate change. ?? 1992 Springer-Verlag.

Climate Dynamics↗
USGS2016

Climate-change signals in national atmospheric deposition program precipitation data

National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP)/National Trends Network precipitation type, snow-season duration, and annual timing of selected chemical wet-deposition maxima vary with latitude and longitude within a 35-year (1979–2013) data record for the contiguous United States and Alaska. From the NADP data collected within the region bounded by 35.6645°–48.782° north latitude and 124°–68° west longitude, similarities in latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of changing snow-season duration, fraction of annual precipitation recorded as snow, and the timing of chemical wet-deposition maxima, suggest that the chemical climate of the atmosphere is linked to physical changes in climate. Total annual precipitation depth has increased 4–6 % while snow season duration has decreased from approximately 7 to 21 days across most of the USA, except in higher elevation regions where it has increased by as much as 21 days. Snow-season precipitation is increasingly comprised of snow, but annually total precipitation is increasingly comprised of liquid precipitation. Meanwhile, maximum ammonium deposition occurs as much as 27 days earlier, and the maximum nitrate: sulfate concentration ratio in wet-deposition occurs approximately 10–21 days earlier in the year. The maximum crustal (calcium + magnesium + potassium) cation deposition occurs 2–35 days earlier in the year. The data suggest that these shifts in the timing of atmospheric wet deposition are linked to a warming climate, but the ecological consequences are uncertain.

Climate Dynamics↗
USGS2024

Modeling the mid-Piacenzian warm climate using the water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM1.2-ITPCAS)

The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (MPWP, ~ 3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent example of a persistently warmer climate in equilibrium with atmospheric CO 2 concentrations similar to today. Towards studying patterns and dynamics of a warming climate the MPWP is often compared to today. Following the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) protocol we prepare a water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM1.2) simulation that is warmer and wetter than the PlioMIP2 multi-model ensemble (MME). While our simulation resembles PlioMIP2 MME in many aspects we find added insights. (1) Considerable warmth at high latitudes exceeds previous simulations. Polar amplification (PA) is comparable to proxies, enabled by iCESM1.2’s high climate sensitivity and a distinct method of ocean initialization. (2) Major driver of warmth is the downward component of clear-sky surface long-wave radiation (Δ T rlds_clearsky ). (3) In iCESM1.2 modulated dominance of dynamic (δDY) processes causes different low-latitude (~ 30 S°–10°N) precipitation response than the PlioMIP2 MME, where thermodynamic processes (δTH) dominate. (4) Modulated local condensation leads to lower δ18O p across tropical Indian Ocean and surrounding Asian-African-Australian monsoon regions. (5) We find contrasting changes in tropical atmospheric circulations (Hadley and Walker cells). Anomalous regional meridional (zonal) circulation, forced by changes in tropical-subtropical (tropical) diabatic processes, presents a more comprehensive perspective than explaining weakened and expanded Hadley circulation (strengthened and westward-shifted Walker circulation) via static stability. (6) Enhanced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation owes to a closed Bering Strait.

Climate Dynamics↗
USGS2009

Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2009

A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2011

Gender and occupational perspectives on adaptation to climate extremes in the Afram Plains of Ghana

Although sub-Saharan Africa does not contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, significant adverse impacts of climate change are anticipated in this region. Countries in West Africa, which are heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture, are projected to experience more frequent and intense droughts, altered rainfall patterns and increases in temperature through the end of this century. Changes in hydrology and temperature are likely to affect crop yields, thereby placing pressure on scarce resources in a region that is characterised by limited social, political, technical and financial resources. The success with which communities cope with the impacts of climate change is influenced by existing conditions, forces and characteristics which are peculiar to each of these communities. This paper assesses the preferred adaptation strategies during floods and droughts of males and females in three different occupations (farming, fishing, and charcoal production). Findings are based upon an analysis of focus group discussions and a ranking of preferred adaptation options in three communities in the Afram Plains of Ghana. Assessments of this nature should aid in the selection and implementation of adaptation options for communities and households, which is the level at which climate change adaptation is likely to occur in West Africa.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2012

Modeling sediment accumulation in North American playa wetlands in response to climate change, 1940-2100

Playa wetlands on the west-central Great Plains of North America are vulnerable to sediment infilling from upland agriculture, putting at risk several important ecosystem services as well as essential habitats and food resources of diverse wetland-dependent biota. Climate predictions for this semi-arid area indicate reduced precipitation which may alter rates of erosion, runoff, and sedimentation of playas. We forecasted erosion rates, sediment depths, and resultant playa wetland depths across the west-central Great Plains and examined the relative roles of land use context and projected changes in precipitation in the sedimentation process. We estimated erosion with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) using historic values and downscaled precipitation predictions from three general circulation models and three emissions scenarios. We calibrated RUSLE results using field sediment measurements. RUSLE is appealing for regional scale modeling because it uses climate forecasts with monthly resolution and other widely available values including soil texture, slope and land use. Sediment accumulation rates will continue near historic levels through 2070 and will be sufficient to cause most playas (if not already filled) to fill with sediment within the next 100 years in the absence of mitigation. Land use surrounding the playa, whether grassland or tilled cropland, is more influential in sediment accumulation than climate-driven precipitation change.

Colorado;Kansas;Nebraska;New Mexico;Oklahoma;Texas↗
USGS2012

The response of Lake Tahoe to climate change

Meteorology is the driving force for lake internal heating, cooling, mixing, and circulation. Thus continued global warming will affect the lake thermal properties, water level, internal nutrient loading, nutrient cycling, food-web characteristics, fish-habitat, aquatic ecosystem, and other important features of lake limnology. Using a 1-D numerical model - the Lake Clarity Model (LCM) - together with the down-scaled climatic data of the two emissions scenarios (B1 and A2) of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Global Circulation Model, we found that Lake Tahoe will likely cease to mix to the bottom after about 2060 for A2 scenario, with an annual mixing depth of less than 200 m as the most common value. Deep mixing, which currently occurs on average every 3-4 years, will (under the GFDL B1 scenario) occur only four times during 2061 to 2098. When the lake fails to completely mix, the bottom waters are not replenished with dissolved oxygen and eventually dissolved oxygen at these depths will be depleted to zero. When this occurs, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonium-nitrogen (both biostimulatory) are released from the deep sediments and contribute approximately 51 % and 14 % of the total SRP and dissolved inorganic nitrogen load, respectively. The lake model suggests that climate change will drive the lake surface level down below the natural rim after 2085 for the GFDL A2 but not the GFDL B1 scenario. The results indicate that continued climate changes could pose serious threats to the characteristics of the Lake that are most highly valued. Future water quality planning must take these results into account.

California;Nevada↗
USGS2021

Climate change impacts and strategies for adaptation for water resource management in Indiana

Changes to water resources are critical to all sectors of the economy. Climate change will affect the timing and quantity of water available in the environment as well as have an adverse effect on the quality of that water. Floods, droughts, and changing patterns of water scarcity—when water is not available in sufficient enough quantities or of a suitable quality at the right time to fulfill demand—are all critical factors when considering how and where Indiana will be able to economically develop in the future. Management of water resources will become even more important as different sectors try to minimize the risk of water scarcity in the face of increasing climate variability. This paper focuses on observed changes to Indiana’s water resources and how the availability and quality of those resources are likely to change in the face of future climate. Generally, Indiana is becoming wetter but with the projected increase coming primarily in the winter and spring. Summer water use will increase the likelihood of water shortages and the need for improved water management. In particular, Indiana may benefit from investment in methods to increase short-term storage of water—retaining more of the overabundance from winter and spring to relieve summer shortages.

Indiana↗
USGS2018

Drought and fire in the western USA: Is climate attribution enough?

Purpose of Review I sought to review the contributions of recent literature and prior foundational papers to our understanding of drought and fire. In this review, I summarize recent literature on drought and fire in the western USA and discuss research directions that may increase the utility of that body of work for twenty-first century application. I then describe gaps in the synthetic knowledge of drought-driven fire in managed ecosystems and use concepts from use-inspired research to describe potentially useful extensions of current work. Recent Findings Fire responses to climate, and specifically various kinds of drought, are clear, but vary widely with fuel responses to surplus water and drought at different timescales. Ecological and physical factors interact with human management and ignitions to create fire regime and landscape trajectories that challenge prediction. Summary The mechanisms by which the climate system affects regional droughts and how they translate to fire in the western USA need more attention to accelerate both forecasting and adaptation. However, projections of future fire activity under climate change will require integrated advances on both fronts to achieve decision-relevant modeling. Concepts from transdisciplinary research and coupled human-natural systems can help frame strategic work to address fire in a changing world.

Current Climate Change Reports↗
USGS2022

Exposure of cultural resources to 21st-century climate change: Towards a risk management plan

Anthropogenic climate change during the 21st century presents a significant challenge to the protection of cultural resources (CRs) on federal lands that encompass ∼ 28% of the U.S. In particular, CRs on this land base may be adversely affected by a wide range of climate-change hazards, including damage by sea-level rise, enhanced deterioration by increasing temperature and precipitation, and destruction by more-frequent and severe wildfire. Most current measures to manage the impacts of hazards on CRs use vulnerability assessments, but because these require that all CRs be treated as having an equal chance of being affected by climate-change hazards (i.e., equal exposure) across large landscapes, the cost and resources required for such analyses are overwhelming to land management agencies. Projections of changes in many hazards, however, show that the probability of hazard occurrence will be unevenly distributed on the landscape. Incorporating this information into a risk assessment thus allows CR managers to prioritize their efforts on assessing impacts to CRs in those areas where the probability of the hazard is greatest, thus increasing efficiency. We provide several heuristic examples of implementing the first part of a CR risk assessment by using 21st-century projections of several hazards most likely to adversely affect CRs on nine National Forests (NFs) managed by the U.S. Forest Service in northern Idaho and Montana. Overlaying the projected distribution of hazards on these NFs with the distribution of CRs identifies CR exposure that, with information on their vulnerability, is required to determine risk. Additional policy and field studies will be needed to determine how to prioritize those CRs that are most at risk according to their significance as well as identify how impacts can be reduced and managed through adaptation planning and implementation. Adaptation will follow the iterative risk management process particularly by improving projection resolution. Finer scale, process-based modeling informed by the highest priority CRs would also provide a means to assess various adaptation options that might change the estimated risk and increase the odds of CRs being as little affected as possible.

Idaho, Montana↗
USGS2024

Multi-criteria decision approach for climate adaptation of cultural resources along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States: Application of AHP method

Prioritizing climate adaptation actions is often made difficult by stakeholders and decision-makers having multiple objectives, some of which may be competing. Transparent, transferable, and objective methods are needed to assess and weight different objectives for complex decisions with multiple interests. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to examine priorities in managing cultural resources in the face of climate change at Cape Lookout National Seashore on the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. In this process, we conducted facilitated discussion sessions with the selected stakeholder representatives to elicit a comprehensive list of management objectives. Objectives were then merged into three categories: 1) Maximize retention of historic character and condition (HCC); 2) Foster heritage awareness (HA); and 3) Maximize financial benefits (FB). We facilitated two AHP exercise sessions, both individually and in groups, to seek consensus on the relative importance of the objectives. The AHP process created a space for stakeholders (government agencies and local citizens) to consider and present arguments that we used to contextualize their trade-offs between the objectives. The stakeholders' top priority was to maximize the HCC. This objective was prioritized more than HA and FB in the individual trade-off choices, while HA was given nearly equal priority to FB. The consensus priority vectors of two management objectives (HCC and HA) differ significantly from FB, but the difference between HCC and HA is slight and not statistically different. FB and HA had larger changes in consensus priority vectors among the three objectives relative to individual priority vectors. For HCC, the difference between individual and consensus priority vectors was the smallest and nearly equal. Moreover, very high levels of consistency were found in consensus priority trade-off discussions and AHP application. Our research highlights the advantage of using a two-step AHP process in climate adaptation planning of vulnerable resources to enhance robustness in decision making. Coupling this approach with future efforts to develop management priorities would help estimate indices to determine the order in which adaptation treatments are applied to vulnerable cultural resources.

Climate Risk Management↗
USGS1998

Vulnerability of island tropical montane cloud forests to climate change, with special reference to East Maui, Hawaii

Island tropical montane cloud forests may be among the most sensitive of the world's ecosystems to global climate change. Measurements in and above a montane cloud forest on East Maui, Hawaii, document steep microclimatic gradients. Relatively small climate-driven shifts in patterns of atmospheric circulation are likely to trigger major local changes in rainfall, cloud cover, and humidity. Increased interannual variability in precipitation and hurricane incidence would provide additional stresses on island biota that are highly vulnerable to disturbance-related invasion of non-native species. Because of the exceptional sensitivity of these microclimates and forests to change, they may provide valuable ‘listening posts’ for detecting the onset of human-induced global climate change.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2022

Biocrusts mediate a new mechanism for land degradation under a changing climate

Global concerns for desertification have focused on the slow recovery of extensive and expanding drylands following disturbance, which may be exacerbated by climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are photosynthetic soil communities found in drylands worldwide, which are central to the stability and resilience of dryland ecosystems, but vulnerable to global change. Here we use multiple decade-long experiments to investigate the consequences of climate and land-use change on biocrusts and soil stability. Biocrusts recovered rapidly under ambient temperatures but warming interacted with the precipitation disturbance to halt recovery. Moreover, warming alone caused losses of mosses, lichens and soil stability. Our results present a new mechanism contributing to land degradation in drylands whereby warming drives a state shift in biocrust communities, which degrades soil stability. The synergistic effects of climate and land-use change co-occur globally and our results support projections of increased desertification and lowered dryland resilience under warming.

Nature Climate Change↗