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At least 1,297 records · Page 72Linked to original sources

USGS2025

Exploring management and environment effects on edge-of-field phosphorus losses with linear mixed models

Evaluating how weather, farm management, and soil conditions impact phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural sites is essential for improving our waterways in agricultural watersheds. In this study, rainfall characteristics, manure application timing, tillage, surface condition, and soil test phosphorus (STP) were analyzed to determine their effects on total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved phosphorus (DP) loss using 125 site-years of runoff data collected by the University of Wisconsin Discovery Farms and Discovery Farms Minnesota. Three linear mixed models (LMMs) were then used to evaluate the influence of those factors on TP and DP losses: (1) a model that included all runoff events, (2) manured sites only, and (3) precipitation events only. Results show that the timing of manure application relative to the timing of a runoff event only had a marginal association with P loads and concentrations, although the majority of the runoff events were collected after 10 days of manure application. Tillage was as influential factor, with greater DP loads and concentrations associated with no-till, especially during frozen conditions. Fields in this study had high STP values, but the model results only showed positive associations between DP load and DP flow-weighted mean concentration (FWMC) loss at the 0- to 15-cm depth. The precipitation event LMM (which included precipitation characteristics) was the model that resulted in the largest R 2 value. While the predictive capacity of the LMMs was low, they did illuminate the relative importance of management and environmental variables on P loss, and can be used to guide future research on P loss in this region.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2019

Point sources and agricultural practices control spatial-temporal patterns of orthophosphate in tributaries to Chesapeake Bay

Orthophosphate (PO 4 ) is the most bioavailable form of phosphorus (P). Excess PO 4 may cause harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems. A major restoration effort is underway for Chesapeake Bay (CB) to reduce P, nitrogen, and sediment loading to CB. Although PO 4 cycling and delivery to streams has been characterized in small-scale studies, regional drivers of PO 4 patterns remain poorly understood because most water quality trend assessment focus on total P. Moreover, these trend assessments are usually at an annual timestep. To address this research gap, we analyzed PO 4 patterns over a 9-year period at 53 monitoring stations across the CB watershed to: 1) characterize the role of PO 4 in total P fluxes and trends; 2) describe spatial and temporal patterns of PO 4 concentrations across seasons and streamflow ; and 3) explore factors explaining these patterns. Agricultural watersheds exported the most total P compared with watersheds under different land uses (e.g., urban or forest), with PO 4 comprising up to 50% of those exports. Although PO 4 exports are declining at many sites, some agricultural regions are experiencing increasing trends at a rate sufficient to drive total P trends. Regression modeling results suggest that point source load reductions are likely responsible for decreasing PO 4 concentrations observed at many sites. Watersheds with more Conservation Reserve Program enrollment had lower summer PO 4 concentrations, highlighting the effectiveness of this practice. Manure inputs strongly predicted PO 4 concentrations at high flows across all seasons. Both manure applications and conservation tillage were correlated with changes in PO 4 concentrations at high flow, suggesting these activities could contribute to increasing PO 4 concentrations. This study highlights the effectiveness of point source control for reducing PO 4 exports and underscores the need for management strategies to target sources, practices, and landscape factors determining PO 4 loss from soils where manure inputs remain high.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS1999

Assessment of Mars Pathfinder landing site predictions

Remote sensing data at scales of kilometers and an Earth analog were used to accurately predict the characteristics of the Mars Pathfinder landing site at a scale of meters. The surface surrounding the Mars Pathfinder lander in Ares Vallis appears consistent with orbital interpretations, namely, that it would be a rocky plain composed of materials deposited by catastrophic floods. The surface and observed maximum clast size appears similar to predictions based on an analogous surface of the Ephrata Fan in the Channeled Scabland of Washington state. The elevation of the site measured by relatively small footprint delay-Doppler radar is within 100 m of that determined by two-way ranging and Doppler tracking of the spacecraft. The nearly equal elevations of the Mars Pathfinder and Viking Lander 1 sites allowed a prediction of the atmospheric conditions with altitude (pressure, temperature, and winds) that were well within the entry, descent, and landing design margins. High-resolution (~38 m/pixel) Viking Orbiter 1 images showed a sparsely cratered surface with small knobs with relatively low slopes, consistent with observations of these features from the lander. Measured rock abundance is within 10% of that expected from Viking orbiter thermal observations and models. The fractional area covered by large, potentially hazardous rocks observed is similar to that estimated from model rock distributions based on data from the Viking landing sites, Earth analog sites, and total rock abundance. The bulk and fine-component thermal inertias measured from orbit are similar to those calculated from the observed rock size-frequency distribution. A simple radar echo model based on the reflectivity of the soil (estimated from its bulk density), and the measured fraction of area covered by rocks was used to approximate the quasi-specular and diffuse components of the Earth-based radar echos. Color and albedo orbiter data were used to predict the relatively dust free or unweathered surface around the Pathfinder lander compared to the Viking landing sites. Comparisons with the experiences of selecting the Viking landing sites demonstrate the enormous benefit the Viking data and its analyses and models had on the successful predictions of the Pathfinder site. The Pathfinder experience demonstrates that, in certain locations, geologic processes observed in orbiter data can be used to infer surface characteristics where those processes dominate over other processes affecting the Martian surface layer. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2012

Aseismic slip on the San Andreas Fault south of Loma Prieta

Two digital creepmeters installed within the San Andreas fault zone after the 18 Oct 1989 Loma Prieta main shock show less than 1 cm of post seismic right-lateral slip in the four months following the earthquake. At Mt. Madonna road a 23 mm coseismic fracture slipped a further 3 mm after heavy rain, and at Nyland Ranch near San Juan Bautista the fault slipped approximately 9 mm starting 42 days after the main shock. If the current trend at Nyland Ranch persists, more than 2 cm of post seismic slip will develop by 1991. At both sites minor left-lateral displacements occurred which are attributed to near-surface soil effects. The abutments of the railroad bridge across the Pajaro River at Chittenden, which were extended by the 1906 earthquake, were not extended during the Loma Prieta event although they have evidently moved apart by more than 7 cm since bridge reconstruction in 1940. This corresponds to 10 cm of right-lateral slip which could be related to M>5 events in mid-century or could be due to aseismic slip at a mean rate of 2.1 mm/a. The absence of significant surface slip within the fault zone in the decades before and the months following the Loma Prieta event suggests either that near-surface deformation is distributed over a wide zone or that a slip deficit remains. Several authors have proposed this region as a future location for M≈5 events.

California↗

USGS2014

InSAR detects increase in surface subsidence caused by an Arctic tundra fire

Wildfire is a major disturbance in the Arctic tundra and boreal forests, having a significant impact on soil hydrology, carbon cycling, and permafrost dynamics. This study explores the use of the microwave Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique to map and quantify ground surface subsidence caused by the Anaktuvuk River fire on the North Slope of Alaska. We detected an increase of up to 8 cm of thaw-season ground subsidence after the fire, which is due to a combination of thickened active layer and permafrost thaw subsidence. Our results illustrate the effectiveness and potential of using InSAR to quantify fire impacts on the Arctic tundra, especially in regions underlain by ice-rich permafrost. Our study also suggests that surface subsidence is a more comprehensive indicator of fire impacts on ice-rich permafrost terrain than changes in active layer thickness alone.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Cyclic aggradation and downcutting, fluvial response to volcanic activity, and calibration of soil-carbonate stages in the western Grand Canyon, Arizona

In the western Grand Canyon, fluvial terraces and pediment surfaces, both associated with a Pleistocene basalt flow, document Quaternary aggradation and downcutting by the Colorado River, illuminate the river's response to overload and the end of overload, and allow calibration of soil-carbonate stages and determination of downcutting rates. Four downcutting-aggradation cycles are present. Each begins with erosion of older deposits to form a new river channel in which a characteristic suite of deposits is laid down. The current cycle (I) started ~700 yr B.P. The oldest (IV) includes the 603,000 ± 8000 to 524,000 ± 7000 yr Black Ledge basalt flow, emplaced when the river channel was ~30 m higher than it is now. The flow is overlain by basalt-cobble gravel and basalt sand. Soils reach the stage V level of carbonate development. Calibrated ages for soil stages are Stage V, ~525,000 yr; stage IV, <525,000 yr, ≥250,000 yr; stage III, <250,000 yr, ≥100,000 yr. The monolithologic basalt sand beds represent overloading by volcanic ash produced by an eruption 30-50 km upstream. The basalt-cobble beds signal breaching and rapid destruction of lava dams and erosion of flows. These deposits show that the Colorado River responds to overload by aggrading vigorously during the overload and then downcutting equally vigorously when the overload ends. The overall downcutting rate for the interval studied is 1.6 cm/1000 yr, much lower than rates upstream. The current downcutting rate, 11-14 m/1000 yr, likely is a response both to the end of late Pleistocene and early Holocene overload and to the reduction of sediment supply caused by Glen Canyon Dam.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2023

How long do runoff-generated debris-flow hazards persist after wildfire?

Runoff-generated debris flows are a potentially destructive and deadly response to wildfire until sufficient vegetation and soil-hydraulic recovery have reduced susceptibility to the hazard. Elevated debris-flow susceptibility may persist for several years, but the controls on the timespan of the susceptible period are poorly understood. To evaluate the connection between vegetation recovery and debris-flow occurrence, we calculated recovery for 25 fires in the western United States using satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) and compared recovery estimates to the timing of 536 debris flows from the same fires. We found that the majority (>98%) of flows occurred when LAI was less than 2/3 of typical prefire values. Our results show that total vegetation recovery is not necessary to inhibit runoff-generated flows in a wide variety of regions in the western United States. Satellite-derived vegetation data show promise for estimating the timespan of debris-flow susceptibility.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2018

High‐elevation evapotranspiration estimates during drought: Using streamflow and NASA Airborne Snow Observatory SWE observations to vlose the upper Tuolumne River Basin eater balance

Hydrologic variables such as evapotranspiration (ET) and soil water storage are difficult to observe across spatial scales in complex terrain. Streamflow and lidar‐derived snow observations provide information about distributed hydrologic processes such as snowmelt, infiltration, and storage. We use a distributed streamflow data set across eight basins in the upper Tuolumne River region of Yosemite National Park in the Sierra Nevada mountain range, and the NASA Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) lidar‐derived snow data set over 3 years (2013–2015) during a prolonged drought in California, to estimate basin‐scale water balance components. We compare snowmelt and cumulative precipitation over periods from the ASO flight to the end of the water year against cumulative streamflow observations. The basin water balance residual term (snow melt plus precipitation minus streamflow) is calculated for each basin and year. Using soil moisture observations and hydrologic model simulations, we show that the residual term represents short‐term changes in basin water storage over the snowmelt season, but that over the period from peak snow water equivalent (SWE) to the end of summer, it represents cumulative basin‐mean ET. Warm‐season ET estimated from this approach is 168 (85–252 at 95% confidence), 162 (0–326) and 191 (48–334) mm averaged across the basins in 2013, 2014, and 2015, respectively. These values are lower than previous full‐year and point ET estimates in the Sierra Nevada, potentially reflecting reduced ET during drought, the effects of spatial variability, and the part‐year time period. Using streamflow and ASO snow observations, we quantify spatially‐distributed hydrologic processes otherwise difficult to observe.

California↗

USGS1985

Crystalline gold in soil and the problem of supergene nugget formation: Freezing and exclusion as genetic mechanisms

Many of the world's richest gold placer deposits now occur in cold regions despite differences in their climatic history. It therefore seems possible that there may be some fundamental connection between freezing climates and the local chemical behavior of gold in the weathering cycle. This hypothesis, along with the problematical occurrence of gold as euhedral crystals in arctic gravel and soil placers, has led me to review low temperature phenomena that may bear on the geochemistry of gold. Several effects which may influence the weathering of natural gold-bearing rocks, the chemical complexation of gold, and its subsequent mobility and deposition appear to be strongly connected with freeze action. The exclusion of dissolved solutes, solute gases, and particles from ice, subjects rock and soil minerals to increased corrosion from thin, unfrozen, adsorbed water films which remain at particle surfaces throughout the freezing of rocks and soils. The preferential exclusion of cations (over anions) from growing ice crystals creates charge separations and measurable current flow across waterice phase boundaries in freezing soil — a phenomenon which leads to troublesome seasonal electrolytic corrosion of pipelines buried in soil; this phenomenon may also favor the dissolution of normally insoluble metals such as gold during geologic time periods. The ice-induced accumulation of clays, organic acids, bacteria, and other organic matter at mineral surfaces may also speed chemical attack by providing a nearby sink of alternate cation-binding sites and hence rapid removal of liberated cations from solution. The latter mechanism may be operative in both the dissolution and redeposition of gold. These physical, chemical, and electrical effects are favorable to the dissolution of rocks (in addition to frost shattering) and to the dissolution, mobilization, and redeposition of gold and other noble metals and must therefore contribute significantly to the behavior of gold at low temperatures. The occurrence of large numbers of gold placer deposits in northern Canada, Alaska, and Siberia may thus be due in part to the low temperatures common to these regions.

Precambrian Research↗

USGS2010

Use of ground-based remotely sensed data for surface energy balance evaluation of a semiarid rangeland

An interdisciplinary field experiment was conducted to study the water and energy balance of a semiarid rangeland watershed in southeast Arizona during the summer of 1990. Two subwatersheds, one grass dominated and the other shrub dominated, were selected for intensive study with ground-based remote sensing systems and hydrometeorological instrumentation. Surface energy balance was evaluated at both sites using direct and indirect measurements of the turbulent fluxes (eddy correlation, variance, and Bowen ratio methods) and using an aerodynamic approach based on remote measurements of surface reflectance and temperature and conventional meteorological information. Estimates of net radiant flux density ( R n ), derived from measurements of air temperature, incoming solar radiation, and surface temperature and radiance compared well with values measured using a net radiometer (mean absolute difference (MAD) ≃ 50 W/m 2 over a range from 115 to 670 W/m 2 ). Soil heat flux density ( G ) was estimated using a relation between G / R n and a spectral vegetation index computed from the red and near-infrared surface reflectance. These G estimates compared well with conventional measurements of G using buried soil heat flux plates (MAD ≃ 20 W/m 2 over a range from −13 to 213 W/m 2 ). In order to account for the effects of sparse vegetation, semiempirical adjustments to the single-layer bulk aerodynamic resistance approach were required for evaluation of sensible heat flux density ( H ). This yielded differences between measurements and remote estimates of H of approximately 33 W/m 2 over a range from 13 to 303 W/m 2 . The resulting estimates of latent heat flux density, LE , were of the same magnitude and trend as measured values; however, a significant scatter was still observed: MAD ≃ 40 W/m 2 over a range from 0 to 340 W/m 2 . Because LE was solved as a residual, there was a cumulative effect of errors associated with remote estimates of R n , G , and H .

Water Resources Research↗

USGS1998

Inexpensive automated paging system for use at remote research sites

The use of a flow-activated automatic sampler at a remote research site required personnel to periodically visit the site to collect samples and reset the automatic sampler. To reduce site visits, a cellular telephone was modified for activation by a datalogger. The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the use and benefit of the modified telephone. Both the power switch and the speed-dial button on the telephone were bypassed and wired to a relay driver. The datalogger was programmed to compare values of a monitored environmental parameter with a target value. When the target value was reached or exceeded, the datalogger pulsed a relay driver, activating power to the telephone. A separate relay activated the speed dial, dialing the number of a tone-only pager. The use of this system has saved time and reduced travel costs by reducing the number of trips to the site, without the loss of any data.The use of a flow-activated automatic sampler at a remote research site required personnel to periodically visit the site to collect samples and reset the automatic sampler. To reduce site visits, a cellular telephone was modified for activation by a datalogger. The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the use and benefit of the modified telephone. Both the power switch and the speed-dial button on the telephone were bypassed and wired to a relay driver. The datalogger was programmed to compare values of a monitored environmental parameter with a target value. When the target value was reached or exceeded, the datalogger pulsed a relay driver, activating power to the telephone. A separate relay activated the speed dial, dialing the number of a tone-only pager. The use of this system has saved time and reduced travel costs by reducing the number of trips to the site, without the loss of any data.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗

USGS2020

Opportunities and challenges for restoration of the Merced River through Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, USA

Successful river restoration requires understanding and integration of multiple disciplinary perspectives, including evaluations of past and ongoing watershed processes, local geomorphic response, and impacts unique to human activity. Nowhere is this more apparent than along the Merced River in Yosemite National Park, USA, where both an outstanding natural landscape and the consequences of over a century of human disturbances continue to interact. An intact upstream watershed highlights the importance here of local impacts on geomorphic response. Incision and the resulting decoupling of the channel from its adjacent late-Holocene floodplain are consequences of reduced channel roughness, likely from de-snagging the river, and instream gravel mining in the 19th and early 20th century. Riparian-zone disturbance by visitor use has damaged riparian vegetation and soils, inducing channel widening. Revetments and channel-spanning bridges, the latter being visible and oft-cited impacts to fluvial processes, have distorted the natural evolution of meanders and induced local channel narrowing. The historical rate of sediment export from Yosemite Valley has greatly exceeded replenishment from upstream and lateral sources, creating a deficit that now inhibits recovery via passive restoration of more natural channel form and function. Climate change may amplify now-diminished fluvial processes but also exacerbate the rate of sediment export. These conditions, reflecting a complex intersection of geologic history, modern geomorphic processes, and human interactions, demonstrate how a limited influx of sediment coupled with intensive human use can have long-term consequences for riverine conditions, restoration opportunities, and social engagement with the riverine landscape.

California↗

USGS2010

Vulnerability of white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska in response to climate variability: Dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives

This paper integrates dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives to improve understanding of the response of white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) tree growth to climatic variability in interior Alaska. The dendrochronological analyses indicate that climate warming has led to widespread declines in white spruce growth throughout interior Alaska that have become more prevalent during the 20th century. Similarly, demographic studies show that white spruce tree growth is substantially limited by soil moisture availability in both mid- and late-successional stands. Interannual variability in tree growth among stands within a landscape exhibits greater synchrony than does growth of trees that occupy different landscapes, which agrees with dendrochronological findings that the responses depend on landscape position and prevailing climate. In contrast, the results from 18 years of a summer moisture limitation experiment showed that growth in midsuccessional upland stands was unaffected by moisture limitation and that moisture limitation decreased white spruce growth in floodplain stands where it was expected that growth would be less vulnerable because of tree access to river water. Taken together, the evidence from the different perspectives analyzed in this study clearly indicates that white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska is vulnerable to the effects of warming on plant water balance.

Alaska↗

USGS2003

Seasonal movement of the Slumgullion landslide determined from global positioning system surveys and field instrumentation, July 1998-March 2002

Measurements of landslide movement made by global positioning system surveys and extensometers over a 3.5-year period show that the Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado moved throughout the monitoring period, but that daily velocities varied on a seasonal basis. Landslide velocities peaked in the early spring and summer in response to snowmelt and summer thunderstorms, respectively. Velocities were slowest in mid-winter when air and soil temperatures were coldest and precipitation was generally low and/or in the form of snow with a low water content. We hypothesize that the seasonal variability in velocities is due to ground-water levels and corresponding pore pressures that decrease when surface water is unavailable or cannot infiltrate frozen landslide material, and increase when surface water from melting snow or rainfall infiltrates unfrozen landslide material. We also suggest that patches of bouldery debris and fractures (created by continuous movement of the landslide) are conduits through which surface water can infiltrate, regardless of the frozen or unfrozen state of the landslide matrix material. Therefore, the availability of surface water is more important than landslide temperature in controlling the rate of landslide movement. This hypothesis is supported by field instrumentation data that show (1) landslide velocities coinciding with precipitation amounts regardless of the depth of freezing of landslide material, (2) spring and annual landslide velocities that were greatest when the depth of freezing was also the greatest, and (3) a rapid (several weeks or less) velocity and pore pressure response to rainfall. The persistent, but seasonally variable movement of the landslide, fits the bathtub model for landslide movement described by Baum and Reid [Baum, R.L., Reid, M.E., 2000. Ground water isolation by low-permeability clays in landslide shear zones. In: Bromhead, E.N., Dixon, N., Ibsen, M.-L. (Eds.), Landslides in Research, Theory and Practice. Proc. 8th Int. Symp. on Landslides, Cardiff, Wales, vol. 1, 139-144]. In their model, the landslide is isolated both mechanically and hydrologically from adjacent materials by low permeability clays. These clays cause the landslide to retain water. Our data support this model by suggesting that pore pressures at the basal landslide surface are always adequate to maintain landslide movement and that any infiltration of water at the surface of the landslide is adequate to rapidly increase landslide velocity. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering Geology↗

USGS2000

Importance of the Mississippi River Basin for investigating agricultural–chemical contamination of the hydrologic cycle

This special issue is devoted to recent and ongoing research relating to the fate and transport of agricultural chemicals in the Mississippi River Basin by the US Geological Survey Toxic Substances Hydrology (Toxics) Program. The Mississippi River Basin drains approximately 3 200 000 km 2 representing 41% of the United States. This is the largest river in the United States and the third largest in the world. The Mississippi River discharges an average of 19 920 m 3 /s of water into the Gulf of Mexico. The river is an extensively used resource, supplying drinking water to 70 cities in the United States. The Mississippi River Basin has undergone dramatic land use and cultural changes over the last 150 years. Approximately 70 million people now live within the basin, representing approximately 27% of the nation's population. This basin has also become one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world in terms of both crops and livestock grown. Approximately 65% of the nation's harvested cropland is grown in this basin, with more than 100 000 metric tons (t) of pesticides and approximately 6 500 000 t of commercial nitrogen fertilizers applied to cropland within the basin annually. The drainage of more than 20 000 000 ha within the basin has been enhanced by means of tile lines and ditches to lower the water table to make the cropland more productive. While removing the water from the soil as intended, this practice also leads to more rapid transport of contaminants to the river, and ultimately the Gulf of Mexico. Furthermore, the extensive chemical use in the Mississippi River Basin has led to the transport of pesticides and nitrate into the region’s streams, aquifers, and atmosphere. An estimated 1 000 000 t of nitrate-N is transported from the Mississippi River Basin into the Gulf of Mexico annually. The peak annual load of herbicides to the Gulf of Mexico has been documented at 1920 t. The fundamental goal of the papers presented in this volume is to provide a scientific basis for decisions necessary to promote sound and efficient agricultural practices and protect the quality of the nation's water resources.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2015

Hydrologic implications of GRACE satellite data in the Colorado River Basin

Use of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites for assessing global water resources is rapidly expanding. Here we advance application of GRACE satellites by reconstructing long-term total water storage (TWS) changes from ground-based monitoring and modeling data. We applied the approach to the Colorado River Basin which has experienced multiyear intense droughts at decadal intervals. Estimated TWS declined by 94 km 3 during 1986–1990 and by 102 km 3 during 1998–2004, similar to the TWS depletion recorded by GRACE (47 km 3 ) during 2010–2013. Our analysis indicates that TWS depletion is dominated by reductions in surface reservoir and soil moisture storage in the upper Colorado basin with additional reductions in groundwater storage in the lower basin. Groundwater storage changes are controlled mostly by natural responses to wet and dry cycles and irrigation pumping outside of Colorado River delivery zones based on ground-based water level and gravity data. Water storage changes are controlled primarily by variable water inputs in response to wet and dry cycles rather than increasing water use. Surface reservoir storage buffers supply variability with current reservoir storage representing ∼2.5 years of available water use. This study can be used as a template showing how to extend short-term GRACE TWS records and using all available data on storage components of TWS to interpret GRACE data, especially within the context of droughts.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2018

A global empirical model for near real-time assessment of seismically induced landslides

Earthquake-triggered landslides are a significant hazard in seismically active regions, but our ability to assess the hazard they pose in near real-time is limited. In this study, we present a new globally applicable model for seismically induced landslides based on the most comprehensive global dataset available; we use 23 landslide inventories that span a range of earthquake magnitudes and climatic and tectonic settings. We use logistic regression to relate the presence and distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides with spatially distributed estimates of ground shaking, topographic slope, lithology, land-cover type, and a topographic index designed to estimate variability in soil wetness to provide an empirical model of landslide distribution. We tested over 100 combinations of independent predictor variables to find the best-fitting model, using a diverse set of statistical tests. Blind validation tests show the model accurately estimates the distribution of available landslide inventories. The results indicate that the model is reliable and stable, with high “balanced accuracy” (correctly vs. incorrectly classified pixels) for the majority of test events. A cross validation analysis shows high balanced accuracy for a majority of events as well. By combining near-real time estimates of ground shaking with globally available landslide susceptibility data, this model provides a tool to estimate the distribution of co-seismic landslide hazard within minutes of the occurrence of any earthquake worldwide for which a USGS ShakeMap is available.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗

USGS2018

Fire, flood, and drought: Extreme climate events alter flow paths and stream chemistry

Extreme climate events—such as hurricanes, droughts, extreme precipitation, and wildfires—have the potential to alter watershed processes and stream response. Yet due to the destructive and hazardous nature and unpredictability of such events, capturing their hydrochemical signal is challenging. A 5‐year postwildfire study of stream chemistry in the Fourmile Creek watershed, Colorado Front Range, USA, focused on high‐frequency storm sampling. During the study, the watershed was impacted by three additional extreme climate events—drought and two periods of extreme rainfall totals. These events altered concentration‐discharge relationships in ways that elucidate how hydrologic flow paths and source material availability affect stream water chemistry. Reduced infiltration after wildfire led to overland flow during thunderstorms, which conveyed ash and soil into streams. This resulted in elevated stream concentrations of constituents elevated in ash—Ca, K, Mg, alkalinity, and dissolved organic carbon—along with sediment and nitrate. Subsurface flow paths were bypassed, leading to low concentrations of Na and SiO 2 , which are bedrock derived and not elevated in ash. During drought conditions, when stream discharge was <20% of average, concentrations of sediment, dissolved organic carbon, and Ca fell below average concentrations, but SiO 2 did not. Extreme rainfall totals saturated the subsurface and led to prolonged elevated stream discharge. Concentration‐discharge relationships for bedrock‐derived constituents, such as Ca and SiO 2 , were altered in that time period, while those for dissolved organic carbon were not. Previous disturbances, including historical mining, also affect stream chemistry, and water‐quality impairment can be exacerbated by extreme climate events.

Colorado↗