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Outburst floods from glacier-dammed lakes: The effect of mode of lake drainage on flood magnitude

Published accounts of outburst floods from glacier‐dammed lakes show that a significant number of such floods are associated not with drainage through a tunnel incised into the basal ice—the process generally assumed—but rather with ice‐marginal drainage, mechanical failure of part of the ice dam, or both. Non‐tunnel floods are strongly correlated with formation of an ice dam by a glacier advancing from a tributary drainage into either a main river valley or a pre‐existing body of water (lake or fiord). For a given lake volume, non‐tunnel floods tend to have significantly higher peak discharges than tunnel‐drainage floods. Statistical analysis of data for floods associated with subglacial tunnels yields the following empirical relation between lake volume V and peak discharge Q p : Q p = 46 V 0.66 ( r 2 = 0.70), when Q p is expressed in metres per second and V in millions of cubic metres. This updates the so‐called Clague–Mathews relation. For non‐tunnel floods, the analogous relation is Q p = 1100 V 0.44 ( r 2 = 0.58). The latter relation is close to one found by Costa (1988) for failure of constructed earthen dams. This closeness is probably not coincidental but rather reflects similarities in modes of dam failure and lake drainage. We develop a simple physical model of the breach‐widening process for non‐tunnel floods, assuming that (1) the rate of breach widening is controlled by melting of the ice, (2) outflow from the lake is regulated by the hydraulic condition of critical flow where water enters the breach, and (3) the effect of lake temperature may be dealt with as done by Clarke (1982). Calculations based on the model simulate quite well outbursts from Lake George, Alaska. Dimensional analysis leads to two approximations of the form Q p ∝ V q f ( h i , θ 0 ), where q = 0.5 to 0.6, h i is initial lake depth, θ 0 is lake temperature, and the form of f ( h i , θ 0 ) depends on the relative importance of viscous dissipation and the lake's thermal energy in determining the rate of breach opening. These expressions, along with the regression relations, should prove useful for assessing the probable magnitude of breach‐type outburst floods.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

Strain accumulation across the Coast Ranges at the latitude of San Francisco, 1994-2000

A 66-monument geodetic array spanning the Coast Ranges near San Francisco has been surveyed more than eight times by GIPS between late 1993 and early 2001. The measured horizontal velocities of the monuments are well represented by uniform, right-lateral, simple shear parallel to N29°W. (The local strike of the San Andreas Fault is ∼N34°W.) The observed areal dilatation rate of 6.9 ± 10.0 nstrain yr −1 (quoted uncertainty is one standard deviation and extension is reckoned positive) is not significantly different from zero, which implies that the observed strain accumulation could be released by strike-slip faulting alone. Our results are consistent with the slip rates assigned by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities [2003] to the principal faults (San Gregorio, San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, Calaveras-Concord-Green Valley, and Greenville Faults) cutting across the GPS array. The vector sum of those slip rates is is 39.8 ± 2.6 mm yr −1 N29.8°W ± 2.8°, whereas the motion across the GPS array (breadth 120 km) inferred from the uniform strain rate approximation is 38.7 ± 1.2 mm yr −1 N29.0°W ± 0.9° right-lateral shear and 0.4 ± 0.9 mm yr −1 N61°E ± 0.9° extension. We interpret the near coincidence of these rates and the absence of significant accumulation of areal dilatation to imply that right-lateral slip on the principal faults can release the accumulating strain; major strain release on reverse faults subparallel to the San Andreas Fault within the Coast Ranges is not required.

California↗

Conditions for generation of fire-related debris flows, Capulin Canyon, New Mexico

Comparison of the responses of three drainage basins burned by the Dome fire of 1996 in New Mexico is used to identify the hillslope, channel and fire characteristics that indicate a susceptibility specifically to wildfire-related debris flow. Summer thunderstorms generated three distinct erosive responses from each of three basins. The Capulin Canyon basin showed widespread erosive sheetwash and rilling from hillslopes, and severe flooding occurred in the channel; the North Tributary basin exhibited extensive erosion of the mineral soil to a depth of 5 cm and downslope movement of up to boulder-sized material, and at least one debris flow occurred in the channel; negligible surface runoff was observed in the South Tributary basin. The negligible surface runoff observed in the South Tributary basin is attributed to the limited extent and severity of the fire in that basin. The factors that best distinguish between debris-flow producing and flood-producing drainages are drainage basin morphology and lithology. A rugged drainage basin morphology, an average 12 per cent channel gradient, and steep, rough hillslopes coupled with colluvium and soil weathered from volcaniclastic and volcanic rocks promoted the generation of debris flows. A less rugged basin morphology, an average gradient of 5 per cent, and long, smooth slopes mantled with pumice promoted flooding. Flood and debris-flow responses were produced without the presence of water-repellent soils. The continuity and severity of the burn mosaic, the condition of the riparian vegetation, the condition of the fibrous root mat, accumulations of dry ravel and colluvial material in the channel and on hillslopes, and past debris-flow activity, appeared to have little bearing on the distinctive responses of the basins. Published in 2000 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km 2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management the most. Additionally, the reduced-parameterization model grossly underestimates uncertainty in the total volumetric ET difference compared to the full-parameterization model; total volumetric ET difference is a primary metric for evaluating the outcomes of brush management. The failure of the reduced-parameterization model to provide robust uncertainty estimates demonstrates the importance of parameterization when attempting to quantify uncertainty in land-cover change simulations.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

Debris flow monitoring in the Acquabona watershed on the Dolomites (Italian Alps)

In 1997 a field monitoring system was installed in Acquabona Creek in the Dolomites (Eastern Italian Alps) to observe the hydrologic conditions for debris flow occurrence and some dynamic properties of debris flow. The monitoring system consists of three remote stations: an upper one located at the head of a deeply-incised channel and two others located downstream. The system is equipped with sensors for measuring rainfall, pore pressures in the mobile channel bottom, ground vibrations, debris flow depth, total normal stress and fluid pore-pressure at the base of the flow. Two video cameras record events at the upper channel station and one video is installed at the lowermost station. During summer 1998, three debris flows (volumes from less than 1000 m 3 up to 9000 m 3 ) occurred at Acquabona. The following results were obtained from a preliminary analysis of the data: 1) All of the flows were triggered by rainfalls of less than 1 hour duration, with peak rainfall intensities ranging from 4.8 to 14.7 mm / 10 minute. 2) Debris flows initiated in several reaches of the channel, including the head of the talus slope. 3) The initial surges of the mature flows had a higher solid concentration and a lower velocity (up to 4 m/s) than succeeding, more dilute surges (more than 7 m/s). 4) Total normal stress and pore fluid pressures measured at the base of the flow. (mean depth about 1.1 m) were similar (about 15 kPa), indicating a completely liquefied flow. 5) Peak flows entrained debris at a rate of about 6 m 3/m of channel length and channel bed scouring was proportional to the local slope gradient and was still evident in the lower channel where the slope was 7°.

Acquabona Creek, Alps, Boite River, Dolomites↗

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

Geologic map of the State of Hawai`i

The State's geology is presented on eight full-color map sheets, one for each of the major islands. These map sheets, the illustrative meat of the publication, can be downloaded in pdf format, ready to print. Map scale is 1:100,000 for most of the islands, so that each map is about 27 inches by 36 inches. The Island of Hawai`i, largest of the islands, is depicted at a smaller scale, 1:250,000, so that it, too, can be shown on 36-inch-wide paper. The new publication isn't limited strictly to its map depictions. Twenty years have passed since David Clague and Brent Dalrymple published a comprehensive report that summarized the geology of all the islands, and it has been even longer since the last edition of Gordon Macdonald's book, Islands in the Sea, was revised. Therefore the new statewide geologic map includes an 83-page explanatory pamphlet that revisits many of the concepts that have evolved in our geologic understanding of the eight main islands. The pamphlet includes simplified page-size geologic maps for each island, summaries of all the radiometric ages that have been gathered since about 1960, generalized depictions of geochemical analyses for each volcano's eruptive stages, and discussion of some outstanding topics that remain controversial or deserving of additional research. The pamphlet also contains a complete description of map units, which enumerates the characteristics for each of the state's many stratigraphic formations shown on the map sheets. Since the late 1980s, the audience for geologic maps has grown as desktop computers and map-based software have become increasingly powerful. Those who prefer the convenience and access offered by Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can also feast on this publication. An electronic database, suitable for most GIS software applications, is available for downloading. The GIS database is in an Earth projection widely employed throughout the State of Hawai`i, using the North American datum of 1983 and the Universal Transverse Mercator system projection to zone 4. 'This digital statewide map allows engineers, consultants, and scientists from many different fields to take advantage of the geologic database,' said John Sinton, a geology professor at the University of Hawai`i, whose new mapping of the Wai`anae Range (West O`ahu) appears on the map. Indeed, when a testing version was first made available, most requests came from biologists, archaeologists, and soil scientists interested in applying the map's GIS database to their ongoing investigations. Another area newly depicted on the map, in addition to the Wai`anae Range, is Haleakala volcano, East Maui. So too for the active lava flows of Kilauea volcano, Island of Hawai`i, where the landscape has continued to evolve in the ten years since publication of the Big Island's revised geologic map. For the other islands, much of the map is compiled from mapping published in the 1930-1960s. This reliance stems partly from shortage of funding to undertake entirely new mapping but is warranted by the exemplary mapping of those early experts. The boundaries of all map units are digitized to show correctly on modern topographic maps.

Hawaii↗

Preeruptive inflation and surface interferometric coherence characteristics revealed by satellite radar interferometry at Makushin Volcano, Alaska: 1993-2000

Pilot reports in January 1995 and geologic field observations from the summer of 1996 indicate that a relatively small explosive eruption of Makushin, one of the more frequently active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc of Alaska, occurred on 30 January 1995. Several independent radar interferograms that each span the time period from October 1993 to September 1995 show evidence of ???7 cm of uplift centered on the volcano's east flank, which we interpret as preeruptive inflation of a ???7-km-deep magma source (??V = 0.022 km3). Subsequent interferograms for 1995-2000, a period that included no reported eruptive activity, show no evidence of additional ground deformation. Interferometric coherence at C band is found to persist for 3 years or more on lava flow and other rocky surfaces covered with short grass and sparsely distributed tall grass and for at least 1 year on most pyroclastic deposits. On lava flow and rocky surfaces with dense tall grass and on alluvium, coherence lasts for a few months. Snow and ice surfaces lose coherence within a few days. This extended timeframe of coherence over a variety of surface materials makes C band radar interferometry an effective tool for studying volcano deformation in Alaska and other similar high-latitude regions.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Mineralogical and compositional characteristics of Late Permian coals from an area of high lung cancer rate in Xuan Wei, Yunnan, China: Occurrence and origin of quartz and chamosite

Some townships in Xuan Wei County, Yunnan Province, have one of the highest lung cancer mortality rates in China and the epidemic disease in the area has generally been attributed to the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) released from domestic coal burning. However, the cancer-causing culprit is not settled as Tian [Tian, L., 2005. Coal Combustion Emissions and Lung Cancer in Xuan Wei, China. Ph.D. thesis, University of California, Berkeley.] found nanometer quartz in these coals, soot emissions, and lung cancer tissues. We have conducted mineralogical and geochemical studies of the coals from Xuan Wei for the purpose of shedding light on the minerals which may be related to the epidemic lung cancer. In this paper, abundances, modes of occurrence, and origins of minerals and elements in the coals from two mines in Xuan Wei have been studied using optical microscope, low-temperature ashing, X-ray diffraction analysis, scanning electron microscope equipped with energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer, and inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The minerals in the coals are mainly composed of quartz, chamosite, kaolinite, and calcite. The particle size of quartz is rather small, mostly less than 20????m and it is of authigenic origin. Chamosite occurs mainly as cell-fillings. The occurrence of quartz and chamosite indicates that they were derived from the hydrothermal fluids. Epigenetic calcite is derived from calcic fluids. Kaolinite is derived mainly from sediment source region of Kangdian Oldland to the west of coal basin. The composition of Xuan Wei coal is high in SiO2, Fe2O3, TiO2, CaO, MnO, V, Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn. The high SiO2 content is attributed to quartz, and the Fe2O3 content to chamosite. The high Mn and low Mg contents in the coal indicate the inputs of hydrothermal fluids. CaO occurs mainly in epigenetic calcite. Elements Ti, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, and rare earth elements were derived from the basaltic rocks at sediment source region. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Reconnaissance geology of the Ghazzalah Quadrangle, sheet 26/41 A, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The Ghazzalah quadrangle is located in the northern Precambrian shield of Saudi Arabia between lat 26?30' and 27?00' N. and long 41?00' and 41?30' E. The area is underlain by two lithologically distinct, Precambrian volcanosedimentary units and a wide range of dioritoid and granitoid plutonic intrusive rocks. The only Phanerozoic rocks consist of one outcrop of Tertiary(?) basalt and widespread but thin deposits of Quaternary detritus. The Banana greenstone, the oldest rock in the quadrangle, consists of intermediate volcanic and subvolcanic rocks and minor interbedded marble, which have been metamorphosed to greenschist-facies assemblages. Volcanic rocks mainly range in composition from basalt to andesite, and subvolcanic rocks consist of diorite and diabase. The Banana greenstone is unconformably overlain by silicic volcanic rocks and minor arkosic sandstone and breccia of the Hadn formation. Preservation of delicate volcanic textures suggests that the rocks have been only incipiently metamorphosed. Unpublished rubidium/strontium isotopic data for the Hadn formation suggest an age of 620 to 610 Ma. Intrusive rocks are separable according to their ages relative to the Hadn formation. Those that are unconformably overlain by the Hadn formation consist of hornblende quartz diorite and gabbro, which may be consanguineous with the Banana greenstone, and younger tonalite, biotite-hornblende granodiorite, syenogranite, and monzogranite. Plutons of monzogranite, alkali-feldspar g,ranite, syenbgranite, peralkaline granite, and hypabyssal intrusions of granophyre were probably emplaced during a period coincident with and (or) following Hadn volcanism. Uranium-lead and rubidium/strontium isotopic data for two plutons in the adjacent Al Qasr quadrangle suggest that plutonic activity persisted in the region until about 580 to 570 Ma. Faulting appears to postdate all of the plutonic rocks. The dominant faults belong to a northeast-trending system of right-lateral shears; a subordinant system consists of mainly north- to northwest-trending faults. The peralkaline-granite plutons underlying Jibal Ba'gham and Jibal ar Rumman have the most economic potential. Wadi samples from these areas show an anomalous concentrations of tin, lead, niobium, and yttrium. Localized, intense radiometric anomalies in the Ba'gham intrusive complex are associated with high concentrations )f thorium, uranium, andrare-earth elements.

Open-File Report↗

Noise in GPS displacement measurements from southern California and southern Nevada

Time series of position changes estimated from data from 236 continuously recording GPS receivers operating in Southern California and Southern Nevada are evaluated for noise models that characterize their temporal correlations. The lengths of the time series range between 3.5 and 10 years. After adjusting these data for postseismic deformation, offsets, and annual periodicities, I find that about one-half of the time series have temporal correlations that are categorized as either flicker or random-walk noise. The remaining time series can be best categorized as either a combination of flicker and random-walk; power law noise; first-order Gauss-Markov plus random-walk noise; or power law plus broadband, seasonal noise. A variety of geodetic monuments are used in Southern California and Nevada, including deeply braced designs, cement piers, pins drilled in outcrop, and buildings. When I evaluate the noise for each time series in terms of an estimate of the standard error in velocity, I find that the sites with the smallest errors are those located in Nevada using deeply braced monuments. Sites that are installed within regions of active pumping, both for groundwater and oil, had the largest standard errors in velocity. Comparison of monument stability, as measured by standard error in rate, with average, annual rainfall nearby indicates a marginally significant correlation. In addition, even though regional filtering removed much of the common-mode signals in these time series, there still remains a common-mode seasonal signal which can and should be removed.

California, Nevada↗

Importance of model parameterization in finite fault inversions: Application to the 1974 Mw 8.0 Peru Earthquake

The spatial and temporal slip distributions for the October 3, 1974 ( M w = 8.0), Peru subduction zone earthquake and its largest aftershock on November 9 ( M s = 7.1) are calculated and analyzed in terms of the inversion parameterization and tectonic significance. Teleseismic, long-period World-Wide Standard Seismograph Network, P and SH waveforms are inverted to obtain the rupture histories. We demonstrate that erroneous results are obtained if a parameterization is used that does not allow for a sufficiently complex source, involving spatial variation in slip amplitude, risetime, and rupture time. The inversion method utilizes a parameterization of the fault that allows for a discretized source risetime and rupture time. Well-located aftershocks recorded on a local network have the same general pattern as teleseismically determined hypocenters and help to constrain the geometry of the subduction zone. For the main shock a hinged fault is preferred having a shallow plane with a dip of 11° and a deeper, landward plane with a dip of 30°. The preferred nucleation depth lies between 11 and 15 km. A bilateral rupture is obtained with two major concentrations of slip, one 60 to 70 km to the northwest of the epicenter and a second 80 to 100 km to the south and southeast of the epicenter. For these source regions, risetimes vary from 6 to 18 s. Our estimates of risetimes are consistent with the time for the rupture to traverse the dominant local asperity. The slip distribution for the November 9 aftershock falls within a conspicuous hole in the main shock rupture pattern, near the hypocenter of the main shock. The November 9 event has a simple risetime function with a duration of 2 s. Aftershocks recorded by the local network are shown to cluster near the hypocenter of the impending November 9 event and downdip from the largest main shock source region. Slip during the main shock is concentrated at shallow depths above 15 km and extends updip from the hypocenter to near the plate boundary at the trench axis. The large amount of slip at shallow depths is attributed to the absence of any significant accretionary wedge of sediments, and the relatively young age and high convergence rate of the subducted plate, which results in good seismic coupling near the trench axis.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Multisystem dating of modern river detritus from Tajikistan and China: Implications for crustal evolution and exhumation of the Pamir

The Pamir is the western continuation of Tibet and the site of some of the highest mountains on Earth, yet comparatively little is known about its crustal and tectonic evolution and erosional history. Both Tibet and the Pamir are characterized by similar terranes and sutures that can be correlated along strike, although the details of such correlations remain controversial. The erosional history of the Pamir with respect to Tibet is significantly different as well: Most of Tibet has been characterized by internal drainage and low erosion rates since the early Cenozoic; in contrast, the Pamir is externally drained and topographically more rugged, and it has a strongly asymmetric drainage pattern. Here, we report 700 new U-Pb and Lu-Hf isotope determinations and >300 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages from detrital minerals derived from rivers in China draining the northeastern Pamir and >1000 apatite fission-track (AFT) ages from 12 rivers in Tajikistan and China draining the northeastern, central, and southern Pamir. U-Pb ages from rivers draining the northeastern Pamir are Mesozoic to Proterozoic and show affinity with the Songpan-Ganzi terrane of northern Tibet, whereas rivers draining the central and southern Pamir are mainly Mesozoic and show some affinity with the Qiangtang terrane of central Tibet. The ε Hf values are juvenile, between 15 and −5, for the northeastern Pamir and juvenile to moderately evolved, between 10 and −40, for the central and southern Pamir. Detrital mica 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages for the northeastern Pamir (eastern drainages) are generally older than ages from the central and southern Pamir (western drainages), indicating younger or lower-magnitude exhumation of the northeastern Pamir compared to the central and southern Pamir. AFT data show strong Miocene–Pliocene signals at the orogen scale, indicating rapid erosion at the regional scale. Despite localized exhumation of the Mustagh-Ata and Kongur-Shan domes, average erosion rates for the northeastern Pamir are up to one order of magnitude lower than erosion rates recorded by the central and southern Pamir. Deeper exhumation of the central and southern Pamir is associated with tectonic exhumation of central Pamir domes. Deeper exhumation coincides with western and asymmetric drainages and with higher precipitation today, suggesting an orographic effect on exhumation. A younging-southward trend of cooling ages may reflect tectonic processes. Overall, cooling ages derived from the Pamir are younger than ages recorded in Tibet, indicating younger and higher magnitudes of erosion in the Pamir.

Pamir Mountains, Tibet↗

Seismic guided waves trapped in the fault zone of the Landers, California, earthquake of 1992

A mobile seismic array of seven stations was deployed at 11 sites along the fault trace of the M 7.4 Landers earthquake of June 28, 1992, with a maximum offset of 1 km from the trace. We found a distinct wave train with a relatively long period following the S waves that shows up only when both the stations and the events are close to the fault trace. This wave train is interpreted as a seismic guided wave trapped in a low‐velocity fault zone. To study the distribution of amplitude of the guided waves with distance from the fault trace and also their attenuation with travel distance along the fault zone, we eliminated source and recording site effects by the coda normalization method. The normalized amplitudes of guided waves show a spectral peak at 3–4 Hz, which decays sharply with distance from the fault trace. Spectral amplitudes at high frequencies (8–15 Hz) show an opposite trend, increasing with distance from the fault trace. The normalized amplitudes of guided waves at 3–4 Hz also show a systematic decrease with hypocentral distance along the fault zone, from which we infer an apparent Q of 50. In order to confirm the existence of the guided waves, a dense array of 31 stations was deployed at one of the 11 sites. The resultant records revealed unequivocal evidence for the existence of guided waves associated with the fault zone. By modeling the waveforms as S waves trapped in a low‐velocity waveguide sandwiched between two homogeneous half‐spaces with velocity V s = 3.0 km/s, we infer a waveguide width of about 180 m, a shear velocity of 2.0–2.2 km/s, and a Q of ∼50. Hypocenters of aftershocks with clear guided waves show a systematic distribution both laterally and with depth delineating the extent of the low‐velocity fault zone in three dimensions. We find that the zone extends to a depth of at least 10 km. This zone apparently continues to the south across the Pinto Mountain fault because guided waves are observed at stations north of the Pinto Mountain fault for earthquakes with epicenters south of it. On the other hand, the zone appears to be discontinuous at the fault bend located about 20 km north of the mainshock epicenter; guided waves were observed for stations and epicenters which are located on the same sides of the fault bend but not for those on the opposite sides.

California↗

Illuminating wildfire erosion and deposition patterns with repeat terrestrial lidar

Erosion following a wildfire is much greater than background erosion in forests because of wildfire-induced changes to soil erodibility and water infiltration. While many previous studies have documented post-wildfire erosion with point and small plot-scale measurements, the spatial distribution of post-fire erosion patterns at the watershed scale remains largely unexplored. In this study lidar surveys were collected periodically in a small, first-order drainage basin over a period of 2 years following a wildfire. The study site was relatively steep with slopes ranging from 17° to > 30°. During the study period, several different types of rain storms occurred on the site including low-intensity frontal storms (2.4 mm h −1 ) and high-intensity convective thunderstorms (79 mm h −1 ). These storms were the dominant drivers of erosion. Erosion resulting from dry ravel and debris flows was notably absent at the site. Successive lidar surveys were subtracted from one another to obtain digital maps of topographic change between surveys. The results show an evolution in geomorphic response, such that the erosional response after rain storms was strongly influenced by the previous erosional events and pre-fire site morphology. Hillslope and channel roughness increased over time, and the watershed armored as coarse cobbles and boulders were exposed. The erosional response was spatially nonuniform; shallow erosion from hillslopes (87% of the study area) contributed 3 times more sediment volume than erosion from convergent areas (13% of the study area). However, the total normalized erosion depth (volume/area) was highest in convergent areas. From a detailed understanding of the spatial locations of erosion, we made inferences regarding the processes driving erosion. It appears that hillslope erosion is controlled by rain splash (for detachment) and overland flow (for transport and quasi-channelized erosion), with the sites of highest erosion corresponding to locations with the lowest roughness. By contrast, in convergent areas we found erosion caused by overland flow. Soil erosion was locally interrupted by immobile objects such as boulders, bedrock, or tree trunks, resulting in a patchy erosion network with increasing roughness over time.

Colorado↗

Three-dimensional imaging, change detection, and stability assessment during the centerline trench levee seepage experiment using terrestrial light detection and ranging technology, Twitchell Island, California, 2012

A full scale field seepage test was conducted on a north-south trending levee segment of a now bypassed old meander belt on Twitchell Island, California, to understand the effects of live and decaying root systems on levee seepage and slope stability. The field test in May 2012 was centered on a north-south trench with two segments: a shorter control segment and a longer seepage test segment. The complete length of the trench area measured 40.4 meters (m) near the levee centerline with mature trees located on the waterside and landside of the levee flanks. The levee was instrumented with piezometers and tensiometers to measure positive and negative porewater pressures across the levee after the trench was flooded with water and held at a constant hydraulic head during the seepage test—the results from this component of the experiment are not discussed in this report. We collected more than one billion three-dimensional light detection and ranging (lidar) data points before, during, and after the centerline seepage test to assess centimeter-scale stability of the two trees and the levee crown. During the seepage test, the waterside tree toppled (rotated 20.7 degrees) into the water. The landside tree rotated away from the levee by 5 centimeters (cm) at a height of 2 m on the tree. The paved surface of the levee crown had three regions that showed subsidence on the waterside of the trench—discussed as the northern, central, and southern features. The northern feature is an elongate region that subsided 2.1 cm over an area with an average width of 1.35 m that extends 15.8 m parallel to the trench from the northern end of the trench to just north of the trench midpoint, and is associated with a crack 1 cm in height that formed during the seepage test on the trench wall. The central subsidence feature is a semicircular region on the waterside of the trench that subsided by as much as 6.2 cm over an area 3.4 m wide and 11.2 m long. The southern feature is an elongate region that has a maximum subsidence of 3.5 cm over an area 0.75 m wide and 8.1 m long and is associated with a number of small fractures in the pavement that are predominately north-south-trending and parallel to the trench. We determined that there was no significant motion of the levee flank during the last week of the seepage test. We also determined biomorphic parameters for the landside tree, such as the 3D positioning on the levee, tree height, levee parallel/perpendicular cross sectional area, and canopy centroid. These biomorphic parameters were requested to support a University of California Berkeley team studying seepage and stability on the levee. A gridded, 2-cm bare-earth digital elevation model of the levee crown and the landside levee flank from the final terrestrial lidar (T-Lidar) survey provided detailed topographic data for future assessment. Because the T-Lidar was not integrated into the project design, other than an initial courtesy dataset to help characterize the levee surface, our ability to contribute to the overall science goals of the seepage test was limited. Therefore, our analysis focused on developing data collection and processing methodology necessary to align ultra high-resolution T-Lidar data (with an average spot spacing 2–3 millimeters on the levee crown) from several instrument setup locations to detect, measure, and characterize dynamic centimeter-scale deformation and surface changes during the seepage test.

California↗

Seismic attenuation and stress on the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield: Are we critical yet?

The Parkfield transitional segment of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) is characterized by the production of frequent quasi-periodical M6 events that break the very same asperity. The last Parkfield mainshock occurred on 28 September 2004, 38 years after the 1966 earthquake, and after the segment showed a ∼22 years average recurrence time. The main reason for the much longer interevent period between the last two earthquakes is thought to be the reduction of the Coulomb stress from the M6.5 Coalinga earthquake of 2 May 1983, and the M6 Nuñez events of June 11th and 22 July 1983. Plausibly, the transitional segment of the SAF at Parkfield is now in the late part of its seismic cycle and current observations may all be relative to a state of stress close to criticality. However, the behavior of the attenuation parameter in the last few years seems substantially different from the one that characterized the years prior to the 2004 mainshock. A few questions arise: (i) Does a detectable preparation phase for the Parkfield mainshocks exist, and is it the same for all events? (ii) How dynamically/kinematically similar are the quasi-periodic occurrences of the Parkfield mainshocks? (iii) Are some dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the next mainshock predictable from the analysis of current data? (e.g., do we expect the epicenter of the next failure to be co-located to that of 2004?) (iv) Should we expect the duration of the current interseismic period to be close to the 22-year “undisturbed” average value? We respond to the questions listed above by analyzing the non-geometric attenuation of direct S-waves along the transitional segment of the SAF at Parkfield, in the close vicinity of the fault plane, between January 2001 and November 2023. Of particular interest is the preparatory behavior of the attenuation parameter as the 2004 mainshock approached, on both sides of the SAF. We also show that the non-volcanic tremor activity modulates the seismic attenuation in the area, and possibly the seismicity along the Parkfield fault segment, including the occurrence of the mainshocks.

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Aurora painting pays tribute to Civil War's end

This year marks the sesquicentennial anniversary of the end of the American Civil War, a conflict that Abraham Lincoln called a “mighty scourge.” It was one of the most poignant periods in U.S. history, laying bare political, economic, social, and moral divergence between Northern and Southern states. The cause of the divergence that led to war was slavery [e.g., McPherson , 1988, chap. 3]—an institution that, by the 19th century, had been effectively abolished in the North but remained firmly entrenched in the South. War erupted in 1861 after a confederacy of Southern states declared secession from the Union of the United States. When the war finally ended in 1865, the Union had prevailed, and afterward, slavery was abolished throughout the United States. This outcome was obtained at the cost of 750,000 American lives and substantial destruction, especially in the South [e.g., Gugliotta , 2012]. In 1865, the same year the war ended, the American landscape artist Frederic Edwin Church unveiled Aurora Borealis (pictured above), a dramatic and mysterious painting that can be interpreted in terms of 19th century romanticism, scientific philosophy, and Arctic missions of exploration. Aurora Borealis can also be viewed as a restrained tribute to the end of the Civil War—a moving example of how science and current events served as the muses of late romantic artists [e.g., Carr , 1994, p. 277; Avery , 2011; Harvey , 2012].

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