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At least 1,297 records · Page 72Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Base of principal aquifer for parts of the North Platte, South Platte, and Twin Platte Natural Resources Districts, western Nebraska

Water resources in the North and South Platte River valleys of Nebraska, including the valley of Lodgepole Creek, are critical to the social and economic health of the area, and for the recovery of threatened and endangered species in the Platte River Basin. Groundwater and surface water are heavily used resources, and uses are regulated in the study area. Irrigation is the dominant water use and, in most instances, is supplied by both groundwater and surface-water sources. The U.S. Geological Survey and its partners have collaborated to use airborne geophysical surveys for areas of the North and South Platte River valleys including the valley of Lodgepole Creek in western Nebraska. The objective of the surveys was to map the aquifers and underlying bedrock topography of selected areas to help improve the understanding of groundwater–surface-water relations to guide water-management decisions. This project was a cooperative study involving the North Platte Natural Resources District, the South Platte Natural Resources District, the Twin Platte Natural Resources District, the Conservation and Survey Division of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and the Nebraska Environmental Trust. This report presents the interpreted base-of-aquifer surface for part of the area consisting of the North Platte Natural Resources District, the South Platte Natural Resources District, and the Twin Platte Natural Resources District. The interpretations presented herein build on work done by previous researchers from 2008 to 2009 by incorporating additional airborne electromagnetic survey data collected in 2010 and additional test holes from separate, related studies. To make the airborne electromagnetic data useful, numerical inversion was used to convert the measured data into a depth-dependent subsurface resistivity model. An interpretation of the elevation and configuration of the base of aquifer was completed in a geographic information system that provided x, y, and z coordinates. The process of interpretation involved manually picking locations (base-of-aquifer elevations) on the displayed airborne electromagnetic-derived resistivity profile by the project geophysicist, hydrologist, and geologist. These locations, or picks, of the base-of-aquifer elevation (typically the top of the Brule Formation of the White River Group) were then stored in a georeferenced database. The pick was made by comparing the inverted airborne electromagnetic-derived resistivity profile to the lithologic descriptions and borehole geophysical logs from nearby test holes. The database of interpretive picks of the base-of-aquifer elevation was used to create primary input for interpolating the new base-of-aquifer contours. The automatically generated contours were manually adjusted based on the interpreted location of paleovalleys eroded into the base-of-aquifer surface and associated bedrock highs, many of which were unmapped before this study. When contours are overlain by the water-table surface, the saturated thickness of the aquifer can be computed, which allows an estimate of total water in storage. The contours of the base-of-aquifer surface presented in this report may be used as the lower boundary layer in existing and future groundwater-flow models. The integration of geophysical data into the contouring process facilitated a more continuous and spatially comprehensive view of the hydrogeologic framework.

Nebraska↗
USGS2012

Lateral and vertical channel movement and potential for bed-material movement on the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake, Montana

The 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake caused a massive landslide (Madison Slide) that dammed the Madison River and formed Earthquake Lake. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers excavated a spillway through the Madison Slide to permit outflow from Earthquake Lake. In June 1970, high streamflows on the Madison River severely eroded the spillway channel and damaged the roadway embankment along U.S. Highway 287 downstream from the Madison Slide. Investigations undertaken following the 1970 flood events concluded that substantial erosion through and downstream from the spillway could be expected for streamflows greater than 3,500 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). Accordingly, the owners of Hebgen Dam, upstream from Earthquake Lake, have tried to manage releases from Hebgen Lake to prevent streamflows from exceeding 3,500 ft 3 /s measured at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging station 0638800 Madison River at Kirby Ranch, near Cameron, Montana. Management of flow releases from Hebgen Lake to avoid exceeding the threshold streamflow at USGS gaging station 06038800 is difficult, and has been questioned for two reasons. First, no road damage was reported downstream from the Earthquake Lake outlet in 1993, 1996, and 1997 when streamflows exceeded the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold. Second, the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold generally precludes releases of higher flows that could be beneficial to the blue-ribbon trout fishery downstream in the Madison River. In response to concerns about minimizing streamflow downstream from Earthquake Lake and the possible armoring of the spillway, the USGS, in cooperation with the Madison River Fisheries Technical Advisory Committee (MADTAC; Bureau of Land Management; Montana Department of Environmental Quality; Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks; PPL-Montana; U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service - Gallatin National Forest; and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), conducted a study to determine movement of the Madison River channel downstream from Earthquake Lake and to investigate the potential for bed material movement along the same reach. The purpose of this report is to present information about the lateral and vertical movement of the Madison River from 1970 to 2006 for a 1-mile reach downstream from Earthquake Lake and for Raynolds Pass Bridge, and to provide an analysis of the potential for bed-material movement so that MADTAC can evaluate the applicability of the previously determined threshold streamflow for initiation of damaging erosion. As part of this study channel cross sections originally surveyed by the USGS in 1971 were resurveyed in 2006. Incremental channel-movement distances were determined by comparing the stream centerlines from 14 aerial photographs taken between 1970 and 2006. Depths of channel incision and aggregation were determined by comparing the 2006 and 1971 cross-section and water-surface data. Particle sizes of bed and bank materials were measured in 2006 and 2008 using the pebble-count method and sieve analyses. A one-dimensional hydraulic-flow model (HEC-RAS) was used to calculate mean boundary-shear stresses for various streamflows; these calculated boundary-shear stresses were compared to calculated critical-shear stresses for the bed materials to determine the potential for bed-material movement. A comparison of lateral channel movement distances with annual peak streamflows shows that streamflows higher than the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold were followed by lateral channel movement except from 1991 to 1992 and possibly from 1996 to 1997. However, it was not possible to discern whether the channel moved gradually or suddenly, or in response to one peak flow, to several peak flows, or to sustained flows. The channel moved between 2002 and 2005 even when streamflows were less than the threshold streamflow of 3,500 ft 3 /s. Comparisons of cross sections and aerial photographs show that the channel has moved laterally and incised and aggraded to varying degrees. The channel has developed meander bends and has incised as much as 5–12 feet (ft) through the upstream part of the Madison Slide (cross sections 1400–800). Near cross section 800, the stream has eroded into the steep right bank between the stream and the road where fill was mechanically placed after 1970. Channel movement also was noted downstream from the Madison Slide. Near Raynolds Pass Bridge, about 3 miles (mi) downstream from Earthquake Lake, elevations across the channel have changed by -1.4 ft to +1.9 ft, but these changes were local in nature and could represent a few rocks or depressions in the bed. Overall, it does not appear that the materials eroded from the Madison Slide are causing aggradation in the subreach near the Raynolds Pass Bridge. Comparisons of critical shear stresses to mean boundary-shear stresses indicate that the D50 particle sizes (median size) along the right side of the bed between cross sections 400 and 500 and along the right side of the bed between cross sections 1300 and 1400 could move at the threshold streamflow. In contrast, most of the D84 particle sizes at those two locations probably will not move at the threshold streamflow. This lack of movement for the larger particles at the threshold streamflow could lead to further armoring of the bed as the D50 and smaller-sized particles are removed from the bed and transported downstream. The Shields parameter values from 0.04 to 0.08 that were used to calculate critical shear stresses could be conservative for a high-gradient stream such as the Madison. A higher, less conservative, Shields parameter would result in higher critical shear stresses, meaning that higher streamflows would be required to move material than those reported herein. In addition, because materials in the channel thalweg are exposed to higher boundary-shear stresses than the materials along the sides of the channel, larger, more erosion-resistant materials likely exist in the deeper parts of the channel where high-flow depths and velocities prevented sediment sampling. Movement of these materials might require higher critical shear stresses than estimated in this report. Characterization of sediment sizes in the center of the stream and observation of bed-material movement for a range of streamflows could provide information to help refine the Shields parameter and critical-shear stress estimates for bed materials in the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake. Furthermore, resurveying cross sections and water-surface elevations more frequently (either annually or after high streamflows) could better define the relation between streamflow and lateral and vertical channel movement.

Montana↗
USGS2026

Erosion potential and flood vulnerability of streams and stream crossings at Acadia National Park, Maine

Acadia National Park has had increases in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation in recent years, leading to increased flood flows, stream erosion, and costly infrastructure damage. To improve infrastructure management in a changing climate, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, has developed multiple datasets that can help natural resource managers identify stream reaches and stream crossings that have the highest potential for erosion and flood damage within Acadia National Park. To develop these datasets, we first created a lidar-derived hydrography based on a 1-meter digital elevation model and then estimated peak flows at stream crossings and along the stream network using regional regression equations for Maine. We assessed the erosion potential of stream reaches by computing channel morphologic and hydrologic metrics associated with erosive power, such as stream steepness, topographic openness, and percent storage in the contributing watershed. Stream crossing flood vulnerability was assessed by comparing estimated peak flows to stream crossing conveyance capacities. Our results indicate that stream reaches in the headwaters of the Acadia National Park highlands such as Sargent, Penobscot, and Cadillac Mountain, have the highest erosion potential and generally coincide with reaches that have had erosion and infrastructure damage in the past. Stream crossings with the highest flood vulnerability are distributed throughout Mount Desert Island and Acadia National Park, especially south of Jordan Pond, north of Sargent Mountain, and surrounding Eagle Lake. Over a quarter of the total stream crossings have insufficient information to compute flood vulnerability and are often on the parts of the stream with the highest potential for erosion. The datasets allow users to identify stream reaches with the highest erosion potential, stream crossings that are most vulnerable to flood damage, and to highlight areas where supplemental field assessments could most effectively be completed.

Maine↗
USGS2019

Detection of rock bridges by infrared thermal imaging and modeling

Characterization of rock discontinuities and rock bridges is required to define stability conditions of fractured rock masses in both natural and engineered environments. Although remote sensing methods for mapping discontinuities have improved in recent years, remote detection of intact rock bridges on cliff faces remains challenging, with their existence typically confirmed only after failure. In steep exfoliating cliffs, such as El Capitan in Yosemite Valley (California, USA), rockfalls mainly occur along cliff-parallel exfoliation joints, with rock bridges playing a key role in the stability of partially detached exfoliation sheets. We employed infrared thermal imaging (i.e., thermography) as a new means of detecting intact rock bridges prior to failure. An infrared thermal panorama of El Capitan revealed cold thermal signatures for the surfaces of two granitic exfoliation sheets, consistent with the expectation that air circulation cools the back of the partially detached sheets. However, we also noted small areas of warm thermal anomalies on these same sheets, even during periods of nocturnal rock cooling. Rock attachment via rock bridges is the likely cause for the warm anomalies in the thermal data. 2-D model simulations of the thermal behavior of one of the monitored sheets reproduce the observed anomalies and explain the temperature differences detected in the rock bridge area. Based on combined thermal and ground-based lidar imaging, and using geometric and rock fracture mechanics analysis, we are able to quantify the stability of both sheets. Our analysis demonstrates that thermography can remotely detect intact rock bridges and thereby greatly improve rockfall hazard assessment.

California↗
USGS2013

Geophysical-log and hydraulic-test analyses of groundwater-production wells at the Hannahville Indian Community, Menominee County, Michigan

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Hannahville Indian Community, evaluated the geohydrology of the bedrock formations and hydraulic properties of groundwater-production wells at the Hannahville Indian Community in Menominee County, Michigan. Geophysical logs were collected from five wells at two sites during September 2012. The logs were analyzed to characterize the lithostratigraphy, bedding and fractures, and hydraulic properties of the geologic formations and aquifers beneath the Hannahville Indian Community. The geophysical logs collected included natural gamma radiation, electromagnetic conductivity, wellbore image, caliper, ambient and stressed flowmeter, fluid resistivity, temperature, and wellbore deviation. The geophysical logs were analyzed with results from short-term hydraulic tests to estimate the transmissivity and water-level altitudes of flow zones penetrated by the wells. The geophysical log analysis indicated the wells penetrated four distinct lithostratigraphic units—shale and carbonate rock, upper carbonate rock, carbonate rock and glauconitic sandstone, and lower carbonate rock. Most of the fractures penetrated by the wellbores appeared to be related bedding partings. The lower carbonate rock unit contained solution features. Analysis of the geophysical logs and hydraulic tests indicated that each of the five wells penetrated from one to four flow zones. The Casino 5 well penetrated a flow zone that was associated with solution features and had an estimated total transmissivity of 4,280 feet squared per day (ft 2 /d), the highest estimate for all the wells. The Casino 3 well penetrated four flow zones and had an estimated total transmissivity of 3,570 ft 2 /d. The flow zones penetrated in the lower carbonate rock unit by the Casino 3 and 5 wells were hydraulically connected. The Golf Shack well penetrated two flow zones and had an estimated total transmissivity of 40 ft 2 /d, the lowest estimate for all the wells. The Community 1 and Community 2 wells penetrated three and four flow zones, respectively, and had estimated total transmissivity values of 185 and 280 ft 2 /d, respectively.

Michigan↗
USGS2015

The source, discharge, and chemical characteristics of selected springs, and the abundance and health of associated endemic anuran species in the Mojave network parks

Hydrological and biological investigations were done during 2005 and 2006 in cooperation with the U.S. National Park Service to investigate the source, discharge, and chemical characteristics of selected springs and the abundance and health of endemic anuran (frog and toad) species at Darwin Falls in Death Valley National Park, Piute Spring in Mojave National Preserve, and Fortynine Palms Oasis in Joshua Tree National Park. Discharge from the springs at these sites sustains isolated riparian habitats in the normally dry Mojave Desert. Data were collected on water quantity (discharge) and quality, air and water temperature, and abundance and health of endemic anuran species. In addition, a single survey of the abundance and health of endemic anuran species was completed at Rattlesnake Canyon in Joshua Tree National Park. Results from this study were compared to limited historical data, where they exist, and can provide a baseline for future hydrological and biological investigations to evaluate the health and sustainability of the resource and its response to changing climate and increasing human use. Radiocarbon dating of the water yielded estimated ages of about 7,000 years at Piute Spring and about 3,000 years at Darwin Spring, and tritium-helium-3 dating indicated an age of less than 2 years at Fortynine Palms Oasis. Stable hydrogen-isotope ratios were used to interpret an average altitude of recharge of 2,348 meters for Darwin Spring (about 1,415 meters higher than the altitude of Darwin Spring), 1,668 meters for Piute Spring (about 766 meters higher than the altitude of Piute Spring), and 1,400 meters for the Upper Pool at Fortynine Palms Oasis (about 543 meters higher than the altitude of the Upper Pool). Water-quality data collected for this study did not appear to be sensitive to trends in precipitation or seasonality in the Darwin Falls and Piute Spring study areas; however, it was sensitive to trends in Fortynine Palms Oasis where salinity increased by more than 10 percent during the 2 years of this study. Such a rapid response is consistent with the comparatively short travel time of less than 2 years from recharge to discharge at Fortynine Palms Oasis. Of the 14 trace elements analyzed, only concentrations of uranium at Fortynine Palms Oasis and arsenic at Darwin Spring were above drinking water standards; both constituents are derived from natural sources in the drainage basin and, therefore, are likely to have accumulated as a result of natural processes. Endemic anuran species were surveyed at Darwin Falls for the western toad ( Anaxyrus boreas ) and the red-spotted toad ( Anaxyrus punctatus ), at Piute Spring for the red-spotted toad, and at Fortynine Palms Oasis for the red-spotted toad and California treefrog ( Pseudacris cadaverina ). Historically, red-spotted toads were at the edge of their range at Darwin Falls, but they were not detected during this study and have not been detected since the early 1980s. The 2006 western toad population at Darwin Falls was estimated at 381 adults (95-percent confidence interval [CI] of 314–482). The population of red-spotted toads at Piute Spring was estimated at 1,153 adults (95-percent CI of 935–1,503). However, an elevated rate of abnormalities (approximately 5 percent) was recorded in red-spotted toads as well as the presence of the chytrid fungus, Bactrochochytrium dendrobatidis , at Piute Spring. In Joshua Tree National Park, the California treefrog now occupies only three of the seven historically occupied drainages. Populations of California treefrogs at Fortynine Palms Oasis have declined more than 50 percent from 288 in 1969–71 to 109 in 2006. A similar decline was observed in the populations of red-spotted toads at Fortynine Palms Oasis from 300 adults in 1969–71 to 155 adults (95-percent CI of 90–139) in 2006. The red-spotted toads at Fortynine Palms Oasis also exhibited the presence of Bactrochochytrium dendrobatidis .

California↗
USGS2012

Biodegradation of chloroethene compounds in groundwater at Operable Unit 1, Naval Undersea Warfare Center, Division Keyport, Washington, 1999-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey evaluated the biodegradation of chloroethene compounds in groundwater beneath the former landfill at Operable Unit 1 (OU 1) of the U.S. Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC), Division Keyport. The predominant contaminants in groundwater are the chloroethene compounds trichloroethene, cis -1,2-dichloroethene, and vinyl chloride. The remedy selected for groundwater contamination at OU 1 includes phytoremediation and natural attenuation. In 1999, the U.S. Navy planted two hybrid poplar plantations, referred to as the northern and southern plantations, over the most contaminated parts of the landfill. The U.S. Navy monitors tree health, groundwater levels, and contaminant concentrations to assess the effectiveness of phytoremediation. The U.S. Geological Survey began a cooperative effort with the U.S. Navy in 1995 to monitor the effectiveness of natural attenuation processes for removing and controlling the migration of chloroethenes and chloroethanes. Field and laboratory studies from 1996 through 2000 demonstrated that biodegradation of chloroethenes and chloroethanes in shallow groundwater at OU 1 was substantial. The U.S. Geological Survey monitored geochemical and contaminant concentrations in groundwater annually from 2001 through 2010. This report presents groundwater geochemical and contaminant data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey during June 2010 and evaluates evidence for continued biodegradation of chloroethenes in groundwater. Geochemical and contaminant concentration data through 2010 indicate that biodegradation of chloroethenes in groundwater continued beneath the landfill at OU 1. Contaminant concentrations in groundwater decreased beneath most of the 9-acre landfill between 1999 and 2010. The evidence indicating that biodegradation was a primary cause for the decreased concentrations included decreasing ratios of more highly chlorinated compounds to less chlorinated compounds over time, and widespread detections of non-chlorinated biodegradation end-products ethane and ethene. No widespread changes in groundwater reduction-oxidation (redox) conditions were observed that could result in either more or less efficient biodegradation. Even with continued biodegradation, dissolved-phase contaminant concentrations in the tens of milligrams per liter have persisted beneath part of the 0.7-acre southern plantation. The magnitude and persistence of those concentrations indicate that non-aqueous phase liquid chloroethenes likely are present beneath the southern plantation and are not substantially affected by biodegradation. During 2010, chloroethenes continued to be measured in shallow groundwater samples from the southern part of the adjacent marsh, although at the lowest concentrations ever measured. Flux calculations based on 2010 data indicate that 95 percent of dissolved-phase chloroethenes in the upper aquifer beneath the southern landfill were degraded before discharging to surface water. Overall, biodegradation of chloroethenes in groundwater throughout OU 1 continued through 2010, and it prevented most of the mass of dissolved-phase chloroethenes in the upper aquifer beneath the landfill from discharging to surface water.

Washington↗
USGS2004

Comparison of methods for determining streamflow requirements for aquatic habitat protection at selected sites on the Assabet and Charles Rivers, Eastern Massachusetts, 2000-02

Four methods used to determine streamflow requirements for habitat protection at nine critical riffle reaches in the Assabet River and Charles River Basins were compared. The methods include three standard setting techniques?R2Cross, Wetted Perimeter, and Tennant?and a diagnostic method, the Range of Variability Approach. One study reach is on the main stem of the Assabet River, four reaches are on tributaries to the Assabet River (Cold Harbor Brook, Danforth Brook, Fort Meadow Brook, and Elizabeth Brook), three are on the main stem of the Charles River, and one is on a tributary to the Charles River (Mine Brook). The strength of the R2Cross and Wetted-Perimeter methods is that they may be applied at ungaged locations whereas the Tennant method and the Range of Variability Approach require a period of streamflow record for analysis. Fish community assessments conducted at or near riffle sites in flowing reaches of the Assabet River and Charles River Basins were used to indicate ecological conditions. The fish communities in the main stem and tributary reaches of both the Assabet and Charles River Basins indicated degraded aquatic ecosystems. However, the degree of degradation differs between the two basins. The extreme predominance of tolerant, generalist species in the Charles River fish community demon-strates the cumulative impacts of flow, habitat, and water-chemistry degradation, combined with the effects of nearby impoundments and changing land use. The range of discharges for nine ungaged riffle reaches defined by the median R2Cross 3-of-3 criteria, R2Cross 2-of-3 criteria, and Wetted-Perimeter streamflow requirements, was 0.86 cubic foot per second per square mile, 0.18 cubic foot per second per square mile, and 0.23 cubic foot per second per square mile, respectively. Application of R2Cross and Wetted-Perimeter methods to sites with altered streamflows or at sites that are riffles only at low to moderate flows can result in a greater variability of streamflow requirements than would result if the methods were applied to riffles on natural channels with unaltered streamflows. The R2Cross 2-of-3 criteria and the Wetted-Perimeter streamflow requirements for the Assabet and Charles River sites show narrower interquartile ranges and lower median streamflow requirements than for 10 index streamflow-gaging stations in southern New England. This is especially evident for the R2Cross 2-of-3 criteria and Wetted-Perimeter results that were close to half of the flow requirements determined at the 10 southern New England stations. The R2Cross and Wetted-Perimeter methods were also compared to the Range of Variability Approach analysis and the Tennant Method. The median R2Cross 3-of-3 criteria streamflow requirement for the nine riffles is close to the 75th percentile of the monthly mean flows during the summer low-flow period from six streamflow-gaging stations near the Assabet and Charles River Basins having mostly unaltered flow. This streamflow requirement is close to the median Tennant 40-percent-flow requirement for good habitat condi-tion for the same six nearby stations. The R2Cross 2-of-3 criteria and Wetted-Perimeter results were less than the 25th-percentile of monthly mean flows during the summer months for the six stations. These streamflow requirements are in the poor habitat range as indicated by a Tennant analysis of the same six stations. These comparisons indicate that the R2Cross and Wetted-Perimeter methods underestimate streamflow requirements when applied to sites in smaller drainage areas and channels that are runs at higher flows.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Societal benefits of cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom management in Lake Okeechobee in Florida—Potential damages avoided during the 2018 event under U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Harmful Algal Bloom Interception, Treatment, and Transformation System scenarios

Freshwater harmful algal blooms (HABs) formed by blue-green algae, or cyanobacteria, have emerged as a global environmental problem. Their negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems can affect the benefits nature provides to human society by reducing water quality; inhibiting aquatic recreation; killing fish, wildlife, and pets; and posing a risk to human health. To manage harmful algal blooms, the Engineer Research and Development Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is developing an advanced technology called the Harmful Algal Bloom Interception, Treatment, and Transformation System (HABITATS), which has been tested in pilot demonstrations upstream of spillways at HAB-affected waterbodies in Florida. The U.S. Geological Survey and cooperators from the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Policy Analysis investigated the societal benefits of HABITATS technology by using data from an actual 2018 harmful algal bloom in Lake Okeechobee to characterize the observed societal impacts and then comparing observed effects to hypothetical scenarios of HABITATS deployment. This study estimated an economic value of $5.5 million in foregone recreation as a result of closed boating ramp facilities and other restrictions on aquatic recreation such as fishing and swimming during the 2018 cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom outbreak. The change in housing sales prices that could have resulted from murky water or bad odor during that outbreak was estimated as $2.3 million. The team also investigated drinking water contamination and human illness but did not find significant societal impacts in this case. If HABITATS had been deployed, the avoided losses less the cost of management could have provided net societal benefits that ranged between negative $2.1 million and positive $0.8 million, depending on the vertical distribution of algae in the water column and the HABITATS version used. The study’s estimated societal benefit is undoubtedly a lower bound estimate because current scientific knowledge is inadequate to characterize, or monetize, all the impacts.

Florida↗
USGS2007

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires. Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies. Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from workshop participants, four priority areas were identified for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been outlined with the priorities in mind. First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to establish the structures and processes for communications and interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group structure that builds on existing research strengths within the USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment for application across the Nation.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2020

Temporal and spatial variability of water quality in the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer recharge zone, Texas, with an emphasis on periods of groundwater recharge, September 2017–July 2019

Ongoing urbanization on the Edwards aquifer recharge zone in the greater San Antonio area raises concern about the potential adverse effects on the public water supply from development. To address this concern, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of San Antonio, studied patterns of temporal and spatial changes in water quality at selected surface-water and groundwater sites in the Edwards aquifer recharge zone, with an emphasis on changes during periods of groundwater recharge. Water-quality characteristics were continuously monitored and discrete water samples were collected at two sets of paired surface-water (stream) and groundwater (well) sites during a 2-year period (2017–19) that included relatively dry conditions and a large recharge event in September 2018 when as much as 16 inches of rain fell in parts of the study area. Continuous monitoring of water-level altitude, specific conductance, and concentrations of nitrate in two wells completed in the Edwards aquifer provided high-resolution data showing detailed changes in water quality across a broad range of hydrologic conditions. Water levels in the wells responded rapidly (within hours to days) to recharge from both small and large rainfall and runoff events; changes in groundwater quality as a consequence of the influx of surface-derived recharge were indicated by changes in values of the monitored characteristics. A broad range in measured values of the stable isotopes of water expressed as delta deuterium and delta oxygen-18 in the water samples collected from two streams (Salado and West Elm Creeks), in comparison to the tight clustering of the values of these isotopes in groundwater samples, indicates that source waters (surface waters) of widely varying chemical characteristics become homogenized within the aquifer system. Concentrations of major ions, trace ions, and nutrient concentrations in stormwater runoff indicate a combination of land-derived and rainfall-derived constituents. The distribution of concentrations of nitrogen species (nitrite, nitrate, and nitrogen in ammonia) among sampling sites transitions from a more variable distribution in stormwater runoff to a more uniform distribution in groundwater in which the dominant form is nitrate. Differences in nitrate isotopic composition and concentration in groundwater across the study area are likely controlled by the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic nitrogen (with the anthropogenic nitrogen component including a wastewater source) and by the process of nitrification. Among all measured constituents, pesticides detected in discrete stormwater-runoff samples provided the clearest indication that urbanization was adversely affecting water quality; specifically, the more urbanized surface-water site had a greater number of detections and greater variety of detected pesticides. Though temporal variability in the numbers and types of pesticides was evident, the overall proportion of pesticides was dominated by triazine herbicides including atrazine, atrazine degradates, and simazine. The observed hydrologic responses to rainfall and corresponding changes in water quality in wells are thought to result from the direct hydrologic connectivity of surface water and unconfined groundwater; however, patterns of groundwater-quality change indicate mixing from multiple sources such as ambient groundwater, recent surface-derived recharge, and possibly inflow from other aquifers. Therefore, understanding the connection between urbanization and groundwater quality cannot be inferred from the input of stormwater runoff alone as changes related to local and regional hydrologic conditions also need to be considered. It should be noted that a single study comparing the results from two site pairs is not able to support definitive conclusions about the full effect of urbanization on surface water/groundwater quality; however, this study does provide useful insights about the spatial and temporal variability of both stormwater runoff and unconfined groundwater that are consistent with expectations based on the current conceptual model that depicts the Edwards aquifer surface-water/groundwater system as a single water resource.

Texas↗
USGS2008

Synthesis of the Hydrogeologic Framework of the Floridan Aquifer System and Delineation of a Major Avon Park Permeable Zone in Central and Southern Florida

The carbonate Floridan aquifer system of central and southern Florida (south of a latitude of about 29 degrees north) is an invaluable resource with a complex framework that has previously been mapped and managed primarily in a subregional context according to geopolitical boundaries. As interest and use of the Floridan aquifer system in this area increase, a consistent regional hydrogeologic framework is needed for effective management across these boundaries. This study synthesizes previous studies on the Floridan aquifer system and introduces a new regional hydrogeologic conceptual framework, linking physical relations between central and southern Florida and between the west and east coastal areas. The differences in hydrogeologic nomenclature and interpretation across the study area from previous studies were identified and resolved. The Floridan aquifer system consists of the Upper Floridan aquifer, middle confining unit, and Lower Floridan aquifer. This study introduces and delineates a new major, regional productive zone or subaquifer, referred to as the Avon Park permeable zone. This zone is contained within the middle confining unit and synthesizes an extensive zone that has been referred to differently in different parts of the study area in previous studies. The name of this zone derives from the description of this zone as the ?Avon Park highly permeable zone? in west-central Florida in a previous study. Additionally, this zone has been identified previously in southeastern Florida as the ?middle Floridan aquifer.? An approximately correlative or approximate time-stratigraphic framework was developed and was used to provide guidance in the identification and determination of aquifers, subaquifers, and confining units within the Floridan aquifer system and to determine their structural relations. Two stratigraphic marker horizons within the Floridan aquifer system and a marker unit near the top of the aquifer system were delineated or mapped. The marker horizons are correlative points in the stratigraphic section rather than a unit with upper and lower boundaries. The two marker horizons and the marker unit originated from previous studies, wherein they were based on lithology and correlation of geophysical log signatures observed in boreholes. The depths of these marker horizons and the marker unit were extended throughout the study area by correlation of natural gamma-ray logs between wells. The Floridan aquifer system includes, in ascending order, the upper part of the Cedar Keys Formation, Oldsmar Formation, Avon Park Formation, Ocala Limestone, Suwannee Limestone, and in some areas the lower part of the Hawthorn Group. The first marker horizon is in the lower part of the aquifer system near the top of the Oldsmar Formation and is associated with the top of distinctive glauconitic limestone beds that are present in some regions; the second marker horizon is near the middle of the aquifer system in the middle part of the Avon Park Formation. The marker unit lies at the top of a basal unit in the Hawthorn Group and provides a stratigraphic constraint for the top of the Floridan aquifer system. The marker horizons do not have distinguishing lithologic characteristics or a characteristic gamma-ray log pattern in all areas but are still thought to be valid because of correlation of the entire section and correlation of all sufficiently deep wells with gamma-ray logs. The Avon Park permeable zone is contained entirely within the Avon Park Formation; its position within the section is either near the middle Avon Park marker horizon or within a thick part of the section that extends several hundred feet above the marker horizon. This subaquifer is present over most of the study area and characteristically consists of thick units of dolostone and interbedded limestone, and limestone in its upper part. Permeability is primarily associated with fracturing. This subaquifer is well developed in west-cen

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Hydrogeologic and geochemical characterization of groundwater resources in Rush Valley, Tooele County, Utah

The water resources of Rush Valley were assessed during 2008–2010 with an emphasis on refining the understanding of the groundwater-flow system and updating the groundwater budget. Surface-water resources within Rush Valley are limited and are generally used for agriculture. Groundwater is the principal water source for most other uses including supplementing irrigation. Most groundwater withdrawal in Rush Valley is from the unconsolidated basin-fill aquifer where conditions are generally unconfined near the mountain front and confined at lower altitudes near the valley center. Productive aquifers also occur in fractured bedrock along the valley margins and beneath the basin-fill deposits in some areas. Drillers’ logs and geophysical gravity data were compiled and used to delineate seven hydrogeologic units important to basin-wide groundwater movement. The principal basin-fill aquifer includes the unconsolidated Quaternary-age alluvial and lacustrine deposits of (1) the upper basin-fill aquifer unit (UBFAU) and the consolidated and semiconsolidated Tertiary-age lacustrine and alluvial deposits of (2) the lower basin-fill aquifer unit (LBFAU). Bedrock hydrogeologic units include (3) the Tertiary-age volcanic unit (VU), (4) the Pennsylvanian- to Permian-age upper carbonate aquifer unit (UCAU), (5) the upper Mississippian- to lower Pennsylvanian-age upper siliciclastic confining unit (USCU), (6) the Middle Cambrian- to Mississippian-age lower carbonate aquifer unit (LCAU), and (7) the Precambrian- to Lower Cambrian-age noncarbonate confining unit (NCCU). Most productive bedrock wells in the Rush Valley groundwater basin are in the UCAU. Average annual recharge to the Rush Valley groundwater basin is estimated to be about 39,000 acre-feet. Nearly all recharge occurs as direct infiltration of snowmelt and rainfall within the mountains with smaller amounts occurring as infiltration of streamflow and unconsumed irrigation water at or near the mountain front. Groundwater generally flows from the higher altitude recharge areas toward two distinct valley-bottom discharge areas: one in the vicinity of Rush Lake in northern Rush Valley and the other located west and north of Vernon. Average annual discharge from the Rush Valley groundwater basin is estimated to be about 43,000 acre-feet. Most discharge occurs as evapotranspiration in the valley lowlands, as discharge to springs and streams, and as withdrawal from wells. Subsurface discharge outflow to Tooele and Cedar Valleys makes up only a small fraction of natural discharge. Groundwater samples were collected from 25 sites (24 wells and one spring) for geochemical analysis. Dissolved-solids concentrations in water from these sites ranged from 181 to 1,590 milligrams per liter. Samples from seven wells contained arsenic concentrations that exceed the Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Level of 10 micrograms per liter. The highest arsenic levels are found north of Vernon and in southeastern Rush Valley. Stable-isotope ratios of oxygen and deuterium, along with dissolved-gas recharge temperatures, indicate that nearly all modern groundwater is meteoric and derived from the infiltration of high altitude precipitation in the mountains. These data are consistent with recharge estimates made using a Basin Characterization Model of net infiltration that shows nearly all recharge occurring as infiltration of precipitation and snowmelt within the mountains surrounding Rush Valley. Tritium concentrations between 0.4 and 10 tritium units indicate the presence of modern (less than 60 years old) groundwater at 7 of the 25 sample sites. Apparent 3 H/ 3 He ages, calculated for six of these sites, range from 3 to 35 years. Adjusted minimum radiocarbon ages of premodern water samples range from about 1,600 to 42,000 years with samples from 11 of 13 sites being more than 11,000 years. These data help to identify areas where modern groundwater is circulating through the hydrologic system on time scales of decades or less and indicate that large parts of the principal basin-fill and the bedrock aquifers are much less active and receive little to no modern recharge.

Utah↗
USGS2013

Evaluation of the groundwater-flow model for the Ohio River alluvial aquifer near Carrollton, Kentucky, updated to conditions in September 2010

The Ohio River alluvial aquifer near Carrollton, Ky., is an important water resource for the cities of Carrollton and Ghent, as well as for several industries in the area. The groundwater of the aquifer is the primary source of drinking water in the region and a highly valued natural resource that attracts various water-dependent industries because of its quantity and quality. This report evaluates the performance of a numerical model of the groundwater-flow system in the Ohio River alluvial aquifer near Carrollton, Ky., published by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1999. The original model simulated conditions in November 1995 and was updated to simulate groundwater conditions estimated for September 2010. The files from the calibrated steady-state model of November 1995 conditions were imported into MODFLOW-2005 to update the model to conditions in September 2010. The model input files modified as part of this update were the well and recharge files. The design of the updated model and other input files are the same as the original model. The ability of the updated model to match hydrologic conditions for September 2010 was evaluated by comparing water levels measured in wells to those computed by the model. Water-level measurements were available for 48 wells in September 2010. Overall, the updated model underestimated the water levels at 36 of the 48 measured wells. The average difference between measured water levels and model-computed water levels was 3.4 feet and the maximum difference was 10.9 feet. The root-mean-square error of the simulation was 4.45 for all 48 measured water levels. The updated steady-state model could be improved by introducing more accurate and site-specific estimates of selected field parameters, refined model geometry, and additional numerical methods. Collection of field data to better estimate hydraulic parameters, together with continued review of available data and information from area well operators, could provide the model with revised estimates of conductance values for the riverbed and valley wall, hydraulic conductivities for the model layer, and target water levels for future simulations. Additional model layers, a redesigned model grid, and revised boundary conditions could provide a better framework for more accurate simulations. Additional numerical methods would identify possible parameter estimates and determine parameter sensitivities.

Kentucky↗
USGS2020

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the midwestern United States

In this report, SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models developed to describe long-term (2000–14) mean-annual streamflow, total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended-sediment (SS) transport in streams of the Midwestern part of the United States (the Mississippi River, Great Lakes, and Red River of the North Basins) are described. The nutrient and suspended-sediment models have a base year of 2012, which means they were developed based on source inputs and management practices similar to those existing during or near 2012 and average hydrological conditions detrended to 2012 (2000–14), whereas the streamflow model has base years of 2000–14, which means it was developed based on the average input precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration from 2000 to 2014. In developing the models, several updates and improvements were made to the data inputs and statistical approaches used to calibrate/develop the models from those used in the previous 2002 SPARROW models. The 2012 SPARROW models were constructed using a higher resolution stream network, which resulted in a mean catchment size of 2.7 square kilometers compared to 480 square kilometers in the 2002 models; more detailed and updated wastewater treatment plant contribution estimates; inputs from background phosphorus sources that were not included in the 2002 model; and more accurate loads for calibration that were computed using a modified Beale ratio-estimator technique whenever no trend in load was determined. Statistical approaches were added to compensate for the unequal effect of each monitoring site during the calibration process by adjusting for the fraction of the basin included in other upstream monitored sites (nested share) and thinning the calibration sites if a negative statistical correlation between nearby sites was determined. Results from 2012 SPARROW models describe how much of each water, TN, TP, and SS source was delivered to the stream network, and the major landscape factors that affected their delivery. Atmospheric deposition and natural (background) sources of TN and TP, respectively, were the dominant sources in anthropogenically unaffected areas (especially in the Rocky Mountains and north-central areas of the Midwest), whereas fertilizers, manure, and fixation were dominant sources in agricultural areas, especially in the Corn Belt and near the Mississippi River. Urban sources of TN and TP were typically localized, but they were still important for some large areas, especially the Lake Erie Basin. All of the land-to-water delivery variables in the nutrient and sediment SPARROW models, such as runoff, soil erodibility, basin slope, and the amount of tile drains, are commonly included in process-driven models. In the SPARROW TN and TP models, best management practices (BMPs) reduced the delivery of these nutrients to streams. Long-term mean-annual flows and nutrient and sediment loads were simulated in streams throughout the Midwest. The simulated flows from the SPARROW flow model were used in the SPARROW TN, TP, and SS models to help describe nutrient and sediment transport from the watershed and through the stream network. Outputs from the TN, TP, and SS models describe loads and yields of these constituents throughout the Midwest, and from major drainage basins throughout the Midwest. Highest TN, TP, and SS yields and delivered yields were from the Lake Erie, Ohio River, Upper Mississippi River, and Lower Mississippi River Basins, whereas lowest yields were spread over most other areas. Losses during downstream delivery resulted in part of the TN, TP, and SS that reach the stream network not reaching the downstream receiving bodies: 14, 15, and 28 percent of the TN, TP, and SS, respectively, are lost during delivery to the Great Lakes and 19, 23, and 52 percent of the TN, TP, and SS, respectively, are lost during delivery to the Gulf of Mexico. The largest losses of nutrients and sediments during transport were in the Missouri and Arkansas River Basins. Information from these SPARROW models can help guide nutrient and sediment reduction strategies throughout the Midwest. Model results provide information on what may be the most appropriate general type of actions to reduce total loading by describing the relative importance of each source, and where to most efficiently place the efforts to reduce loading by describing the distribution of nutrient and sediment loading. By implementing management efforts addressing the major sources of the loads in areas contributing the highest loads, it may be possible to reduce nutrient loading throughout the Mississippi River Basin and thus reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico; reduce nutrient loading into lakes, and thus reduce the occurrence of harmful algal blooms; and reduce sediment losses, and thus improve the benthic habitat in streams and rivers throughout the Midwest.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

Quaternary sediment thickness and bedrock topography of the glaciated United States east of the Rocky Mountains

Beginning roughly 2.6 million years ago, global climate entered a cooling phase known as the Pleistocene Epoch. As snow in northern latitudes compacted into ice several kilometers thick, it flowed as glaciers southward across the North American continent. These glaciers extended across the northern United States, dramatically altering the landscape they covered. East of the Rocky Mountains, the ice coalesced into continental glaciers (called the Laurentide Ice Sheet) that at times blanketed much of the north-central and northeastern United States. To the west of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, glaciers formed in the mountains of western Canada and the United States and coalesced into the Cordilleran ice sheet; this relatively smaller ice mass extended into the conterminous United States in the northernmost areas of western Montana, Idaho, and Washington. Throughout the Pleistocene, landscape alteration occurred by (1) glacial erosion of the rocks and sediments; (2) redeposition of the eroded earth materials in a form substantially different from their source rocks, in terms of texture and overall character; and (3) disruption of preexisting drainage patterns by the newly deposited sediments. In many cases, pre-glacial drainage systems (including, for example, the Mississippi River) were rerouted because their older drainage courses became blocked with glacial sediment. The continental glaciers advanced and retreated many times across those areas. During each ice advance, or glaciation, erosion and deposition occurred, and the landscape was again altered. Through successive glaciations, the landscape and the bedrock surface gradually came to resemble their present configurations. As continental ice sheets receded and the Pleistocene ended, erosion and deposition of sediment (for example in stream valleys) continued to shape the landscape up to the present day (albeit to a lesser extent than during glaciation). The interval of time since the last recession of the glaciers is called the Holocene and, together with the Pleistocene, constitutes the Quaternary Period of geologic time; this publication characterizes the three-dimensional geometry of the Quaternary sediments and the bedrock surface that lies beneath. The pre-glacial landscape was underlain mostly by weathered bedrock generally similar in nature to that found in many areas of the non-glaciated United States. Glacial erosion and redeposition of earth materials produced a young, mineral-rich soil that formed the basis for the highly productive agricultural economy in the U.S. midcontinent. Extensive buried sands and gravels within the glacial deposits also provided a stimulus to other economic sectors by serving as high-quality aquifers supplying groundwater to the region’s industry and cities. An understanding of the three-dimensional distribution of these glacial sediments has direct utility for addressing various societal issues including groundwater quality and supply, and landscape and soil response to earthquake-induced shaking. The Quaternary sediment thickness map and bedrock topographic map shown here provide a regional overview and are intended to supplement the more detailed work on which they are based. Detailed mapping is particularly useful in populated areas for site-specific planning. In contrast, regional maps such as these serve to place local, detailed mapping in context; to permit the extrapolation of data into unmapped areas; and to depict large-scale regional geologic features and patterns that are beyond the scope of local, detailed mapping. They also can enhance the reader’s general understanding of the region’s landscape and geologic history and provide a source of information for regional decision making that could benefit by improved predictability of bedrock depth beneath the unconsolidated Quaternary sediments. To enable these maps to be analyzed in conjunction with other types of information, this publication also includes the map data in GIS compatible format.

Scientific Investigations Map↗
USGS2009

Estimating Locations of Perennial Streams in Idaho Using a Generalized Least-Squares Regression Model of 7-Day, 2-Year Low Flows

Many State and Federal agencies use information regarding the locations of streams having intermittent or perennial flow when making management and regulatory decisions. For example, the application of some Idaho water quality standards depends on whether streams are intermittent. Idaho Administrative Code defines an intermittent stream as one having a 7-day, 2-year low flow (7Q2) less than 0.1 ft3/s. However, there is a general recognition that the cartographic representation of perennial/intermittent status of streams on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) topographic maps is not as accurate or consistent as desirable from one map to another, which makes broad management and regulatory assessments difficult and inconsistent. To help resolve this problem, the USGS has developed a methodology for predicting the locations of perennial streams based on regional generalized least-squares (GLS) regression equations for Idaho streams for the 7Q2 low-flow statistic. Using these regression equations, the 7Q2 streamflow may be estimated for naturally flowing streams in most areas in Idaho. The use of these equations in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) technique known as weighted flow accumulation allows for an automated and continuous estimation of 7Q2 streamflow at all points along stream reaches. The USGS has developed a GIS-based map of the locations of streams in Idaho with perennial flow based on a 7Q2 of 0.1 ft3/s and a transition zone of plus or minus 1 standard error. Idaho State cooperators plan to use this information to make regulatory and water-quality management decisions. Originally, 7Q2 equations were developed for eight regions of similar hydrologic characteristics in the study area, using long-term data from 234 streamflow-gaging stations. Equations in five of the regions were revised based on spatial patterns observed in the initial perennial streams map and unrealistic behavior of the equations in extrapolation. The standard errors of prediction for the final equations ranged from a minimum of +75.0 to -42.9 percent in the central part of the study area to a maximum of +277 to -73.5 percent in the southern part of the study area. The equations are applicable only to unregulated, naturally-flowing streams and may produce unreliable results outside the range of explanatory variables used for equation development. Extrapolation outside the range of available data was necessary, however, to predict perennial flow initiation points and transition zones along stream reaches. The map of perennial streams was evaluated by comparing predicted stream classifications with four independent datasets, including field observations by other government agencies. Overall, 81 percent of the comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Regions with the highest number of disagreements had a high percentage of mountainous and forested area with potential mountain front recharge zones, and regions with the highest agreements had a high percentage of low gradient, low elevation area. As a whole, the USGS model predicted a higher number of perennial streams than predictions made with the independent datasets. Some disagreements were due to poor site location coordinates, timing of the comparison site visits during unusually wet or dry years, discrepancies in classification criteria, and variable ground water contributions to flow in some areas. The Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Beneficial Use Reconnaissance Program (BURP) dataset is considered the most representative dataset for comparison because it covered a range of climate conditions and the number of sites visited were consistent from year to year during the study period. Eighty-five percent of BURP comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Although site-specific flow data may be needed to correctly classify streams in some areas, this information rarely is available and is not always practical to o

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2019

Using the precipitation-runoff modeling system to predict seasonal water availability in the upper Klamath River basin, Oregon and California

Accurate forecasts of the streamflow expected during late spring and summer in the Upper Klamath River Basin in southern-central Oregon and northern California are used by water management agencies to balance water allocations for agriculture, aquatic habitat, and hydropower-production needs. Streamflow forecasts are also used by irrigation farmers for planning. The forecasts are typically made twice a month starting as early in the water year as December. Multiple regression equations relating real-time snowpack and precipitation conditions to seasonal streamflow volumes have been used for many years in forecasting. However, with warming temperature trends and lower snowpack, such forecasts based on historical data could become less reliable in the future. If the timing and relation of snowpack and precipitation are outside of the range of the historical data used to create the equations, the forecasts become extrapolations. Statistical forecast equations are also limited in their ability to forecast streamflow in groundwater-dominated basins having inter-annual lag. As an additional method for seasonal streamflow forecasting, a physical-process-based hydrologic model employing the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was developed in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for the Upper Klamath Basin in this study. The model was calibrated for the portion of the basin draining into Upper Klamath Lake. PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. It simulates daily streamflow, snow, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, surface-water, and groundwater processes within the basin. A model calibration and validation period for water years 2000–15 and water years 1984–99, respectively, was used. The model was calibrated and validated using measured streamflow, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation data sets. Interpolated daily precipitation and air temperature data from 32 meteorological stations within and surrounding the Upper Klamath Basin were used as model input. Performance statistics, used to evaluate how well simulated daily streamflow matched with measured streamflow included percent bias, percent relative error, and root-mean-square error. The statistics were computed annually, monthly, for October–March, and for April–September. With the exception of the October–March period, percent bias statistics were all within plus or minus 5-percent for both the calibration and validation periods. Limitations to using the model are error in the precipitation and air temperature input time series data, which include measurement error and error in the spatial interpolation method. Other errors include measured daily streamflow data, which were adjusted for consumptive use losses to make them more closely resemble natural streamflow for calibration. The model developed for the Upper Klamath Basin can be used to forecast streamflow from the Sprague and Williamson River Basins and inflow to Upper Klamath Lake. Reliable forecasts at these locations are needed for managing water for irrigation, ecosystem health, and power production. Using the models in a forecast application requires assembling model input data sets of anticipated daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature for the period after the date the forecast is made and the end of the forecasted period. These climate data sets can be based on historical or synthetic records, at the discretion of the forecaster. With the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method, a suite of streamflow scenarios is simulated using multiple years of climate data as model input. The forecasted streamflow is determined from knowing the exceedance probabilities of the simulated streamflows. In this study, the model and the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method were used to forecast the volume of inflow to Upper Klamath Lake for a 6-month period from April 1, 2015, to September 30, 2015, using a range of climate data sets based on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) criteria. Because 2015 was a warm phase ENSO period, climate data for 10 warm phase ENSO years from 1980 to 2010 were used as input to the model. The simulated April–September 2015 UKL inflow volume based on measured 2015 climate data was 482,000 acre-feet, which was very close to the 50th percent exceedance probability computed from 10 simulated scenarios that used warm phase ENSO climate input data from 1980–2010.

California, Oregon↗