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At least 1,297 records · Page 72Linked to original sources
USGS2013

USGS Arctic Ocean carbon cruise 2010: field activity H-03-10-AR to collect carbon data in the Arctic Ocean, August - September 2010

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the surface of the ocean by reacting with seawater to form carbonic acid, a weak, naturally occurring acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (Sabine and others, 2004). Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Orr and others, 2005; Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO 2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats (Raven and others, 2005; Ruttiman, 2006). The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

Data Series↗
USGS1996

Hydrogeology of the surficial and intermediate aquifer systems in Sarasota and adjacent counties, Florida

From 1991 to 1995, the hydrogeology of the surficial aquifer system and the major permeable zones and confining units of the intermediate aquifer system in southwest Florida was studied. The study area is a 1,400-square-mile area that includes Sarasota County and parts of Manatee, De Soto, Charlotte, and Lee Counties. Lithologic, geophysical, hydraulic property, and water-level data were used to correlate the hydrogeology and map the extent of the aquifer systems. Water chemistry was evaluated in southwest Sarasota County to determine salinity of the surficial and intermediate aquifer systems. The surficial aquifer is an unconfined aquifer system that overlies the intermediate aquifer system and ranges from a few feet to over 60 feet in thickness in the study area. Hydraulic properties of the surficial aquifer system determined from aquifer and laboratory tests, and model simulations vary considerably across the study area. The intermediate aquifer system, a confined aquifer system that lies between the surficial and the Upper Floridan aquifers, is composed of alternating confining units and permeable zones. The intermediate aquifer system has three major permeable zones that exhibit a wide range of hydraulic properties. Horizontal flow in the intermediate aquifer system is northeast to southwest. Most of the study area is in a discharge area of the intermediate aquifer system. Water ranges naturally from fresh in the surficial aquifer system and upper permeable zones of the intermediate aquifer system to moderately saline in the lower permeable zone. Water-quality data collected in coastal southwest Sarasota County indicate that ground-water withdrawals from major pumping centers have resulted in lateral seawater intrusion and upconing into the surficial and intermediate aquifer systems.

Florida↗
USGS2005

Evaluating water management strategies with the Systems Impact Assessment Model: SIAM version 4

Water from many of California's coastal rivers has been used for a wide variety of development ventures, including major agricultural diversions, hydropower generation, and contaminant assimilation from industry, agriculture and logging. Anthropogenic impacts often degrade water quality and decrease the quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. Reallocating streamflow away from uses that degrade water quality to uses that foster higher water quality is a critical step in restoring riverine habitat and the anadromous fish that rely on that habitat for a portion of their life cycle. Reallocation always brings with it the need to examine the economic efficiency of the proposed changes. If the dollar benefits of improving water quality are greater than the costs, the criterion of improving economic efficiency is satisfied, a fact that can be highly persuasive to decision makers contemplating reallocation. Previous related studies have examined nonmarket benefits of the Trinity River in northern California (Douglas and Taylor, 1998; Douglas and Taylor, 1999abc) but nothing of this kind had been done on the Klamath River, another system with numerous uses for and competition over water in times of drought. An economic survey is nearing completion for the mid- to lower Klamath River, including the Scott, Shasta, and Salmon Rivers, but excluding the Trinity River. This survey provides valuable insights about the magnitude of the benefits and nature of the costs of reallocating water from market uses to instream flows that improve water quality and assist in the recovery of Klamath River fish stocks. Preliminary survey results (Douglas and Johnson, 2002; Douglas and Sleeper, In Prep.) indicate that about 234,000 California, Oregon, and Nevada households made recreation trips to the Klamath River Basin 1997-1998 and that these users spent about $372 million on trip related expenditures. Clearly the prosperity of the region is closely linked to the demand for mid- and lower Klamath River Basin recreation trips. Further, respondents indicated that they would make roughly 36% more recreational trips per annum to the Klamath if the water quality and the fishery were restored to an unspoiled condition. Using two distinct types of survey data, these additional trips would yield benefits with a present value of approximately $9.6 billion (at a discount rate of 7.5%). Calculating costs to restore the fishery and raise water quality involved five major hypothetical restoration activities: (1) purchasing Klamath project farmland and environmentally sensitive forest lands, (2) allocating more water down the Trinity River to enhance the quantity and quality of Klamath flows below the confluence, (3) removing four mainstem dams along the Klamath River and losing their associated hydropower production, (4) eliminating all harvest of Klamath-Trinity fish stocks for a 12-year period including the acquisition of fishing rights from both tribal and commercial marine fishermen, and (5) operating all Klamath-Trinity fish hatcheries to restore self-reproducing stocks. In total, restoration costs were estimated to be about $1.7 to $2.3 billion. If the assumptions used in this study are valid, it is clear that the benefits ($9.6B) outweigh the costs of restoring water quality and the fishery. The apparent disparity between restoration benefits and costs for the Klamath River may suggest to some that water resources on the Klamath be reallocated to environmentally friendly nonmarket uses. The economic analysis rests in part on the information made available to the survey designers by the biological, hydrologic, and water quality data incorporated in The System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). It is our hope that SIAM can be used to improve the river's water quality and fishery, and strengthen the important regional economy.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Effects of Withdrawals on Ground-Water Levels in Southern Maryland and the Adjacent Eastern Shore, 1980-2005

Ground water is the primary source of water supply in most areas of Maryland?s Atlantic Coastal Plain, including Southern Maryland. The counties in this area are experiencing some of the most rapid growth and development in the State, resulting in an increased demand for ground-water production. The cooperative, basic water-data program of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Maryland Geological Survey has collected long-term observations of ground-water levels in Southern Maryland and parts of the Eastern Shore for many decades. Additional water-level observations were made by both agencies beginning in the 1970s, under the Power Plant Research Program of the Maryland Department of Natural Resources. These long-term water levels commonly show significant declines over several decades, which are attributed to ground-water withdrawals. Ground-water-level trends since 1980 in major Coastal Plain aquifers such as the Piney Point-Nanjemoy, Aquia, Magothy, upper Patapsco, lower Patapsco, and Patuxent were compared to water use and withdrawal data. Potentiometric surface maps show that most of the declines in ground-water levels can be directly related to effects from major pumping centers. There is also evidence that deep drawdowns in some pumped aquifers may be causing declines in adjacent, unpumped aquifers. Water-level hydrographs of many wells in Southern Maryland show linear declines in levels year after year, instead of the gradual leveling-off that would be expected as the aquifers equilibrate with pumping. A continual increase in the volumes of water being withdrawn from the aquifers is one explanation for why they are not reaching equilibrium. Although reported ground-water production in Southern Maryland has increased somewhat over the past several decades, the reported increases are often not large enough to account for the observed water-level declines. Numerical modeling simulations indicate that a steady, annual increase in the number of small wells could account for the observed aquifer behavior. Such wells, being pumped at rates below the minimum legal reporting threshold of 10,000 gallons per day, might be the source of the additional withdrawals. More detailed water-use data, especially from domestic wells, central-pivot irrigation wells, and other small users not currently reporting withdrawals to the State, may help to determine the cause of the aquifer declines.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2010

Simulation of groundwater flow and effects of groundwater irrigation on stream base flow in the Elkhorn and Loup River basins, Nebraska, 1895-2055: Phase Two

Regional groundwater-flow simulations for a 30,000-square-mile area of the High Plains aquifer, referred to collectively as the Elkhorn-Loup Model, were developed to predict the effects of groundwater irrigation on stream base flow in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, Nebraska. Simulations described the stream-aquifer system from predevelopment through 2005 [including predevelopment (pre-1895), early development (1895-1940), and historical development (1940 through 2005) conditions] and future hypothetical development conditions (2006 through 2033 or 2055). Predicted changes to stream base flow that resulted from simulated changes to groundwater irrigation will aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected water supplies. The predevelopment through 2005 simulation was calibrated using an automated parameter-estimation method to optimize the fit to pre-1940 groundwater levels and base flows, 1945 through 2005 decadal groundwater-level changes, and 1940 through 2005 base flows. The calibration results of the pre-1940 period indicated that 81 percent of the simulated groundwater levels were within 30 feet of the measured water levels. The results did not indicate large areas of simulated groundwater levels that were biased too high or too low, indicating that the simulation generally captures the regional trends. Calibration results using 1945 through 2005 decadal groundwater-level changes indicated that a majority of the simulated groundwater-level changes were within 5 feet of the changes calculated from measured groundwater levels. Simulated groundwater-level rises generally were smaller than measured rises near surface-water irrigation districts. Simulated groundwater-level declines were larger than measured declines in several parts of the study area having large amounts of irrigated crops. Base-flow trends and volumes generally were reproduced by the simulation at most sites. Exceptions include downward trends of simulated base flow from the 1970s to the end of the calibration period for the Elkhorn River at Norfolk, Beaver Creek at Genoa, and Cedar River near Fullerton. Effects of groundwater irrigation on stream base flow were predicted using several methods: (1) simulated base-flow depletion was mapped to represent the percentage of water pumped from a hypothetical well during 2006 through 2055 that corresponds to base-flow depletions at the end of that 50-year period; (2) the groundwater-flow simulation predicted changes in stream base flow that result from modifying the number of irrigated acres in a 25-year period (2009 through 2033); and (3) a simulation-optimization model determined the minimum reduction of groundwater pumpage that would be necessary in the Elkhorn River Basin in a 25-year period (2009 through 2033) to comply with various hypothetical base-flow requirements for the Elkhorn River. The results are not intended to determine specific management plans that must be adopted, but rather to improve the understanding of how base flow is affected by irrigation. A 50-year simulation (2006-55) indicated that depletions of less than 10 percent of pumpage mainly occur in areas that are about 10 miles or farther from the Elkhorn and Loup Rivers and their tributaries. The calibrated simulation was used to predict the 25-year effect on base flow of a 10 percent decrease in irrigated acres and the effect of increasing acres at the presently (2010) allowed rate. Hypothesized changes to irrigated acres were applied only to areas where mapped base-flow depletions were at least 10 percent of pumpage. The effect of changes in irrigated acres includes the combined effects of changes to pumpage and additional recharge from irrigated acres. When irrigated acres were decreased by 10 percent within selected areas of four Natural Resources Districts (a total reduction of about 120,000 acres and a 5 percent reduction in irrigation pumpage), simulated base flow was predicted to inc

Nebraska↗
USGS2010

Fat fractal scaling of drainage networks from a random spatial network model

An alternative quantification of the scaling properties of river channel networks is explored using a spatial network model. Whereas scaling descriptions of drainage networks previously have been presented using a fractal analysis primarily of the channel lengths, we illustrate the scaling of the surface area of the channels defining the network pattern with an exponent which is independent of the fractal dimension but not of the fractal nature of the network. The methodology presented is a fat fractal analysis in which the drainage basin minus the channel area is considered the fat fractal. Random channel networks within a fixed basin area are generated on grids of different scales. The sample channel networks generated by the model have a common outlet of fixed width and a rule of upstream channel narrowing specified by a diameter branching exponent using hydraulic and geomorphologic principles. Scaling exponents are computed for each sample network on a given grid size and are regressed against network magnitude. Results indicate that the size of the exponents are related to magnitude of the networks and generally decrease as network magnitude increases. Cases showing differences in scaling exponents with like magnitudes suggest a direction of future work regarding other topologic basin characteristics as potential explanatory variables.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Use of regression‐based models to map sensitivity of aquatic resources to atmospheric deposition in Yosemite National Park, USA

An abundance of exposed bedrock, sparse soil and vegetation, and fast hydrologic flushing rates make aquatic ecosystems in Yosemite National Park susceptible to nutrient enrichment and episodic acidification due to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S). In this study, multiple linear regression (MLR) models were created to estimate fall‐season nitrate and acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in surface water in Yosemite wilderness. Input data included estimated winter N deposition, fall‐season surface‐water chemistry measurements at 52 sites, and basin characteristics derived from geographic information system layers of topography, geology, and vegetation. The MLR models accounted for 84% and 70% of the variance in surface‐water nitrate and ANC, respectively. Explanatory variables (and the sign of their coefficients) for nitrate included elevation (positive) and the abundance of neoglacial and talus deposits (positive), unvegetated terrain (positive), alluvium (negative), and riparian (negative) areas in the basins. Explanatory variables for ANC included basin area (positive) and the abundance of metamorphic rocks (positive), unvegetated terrain (negative), water (negative), and winter N deposition (negative) in the basins. The MLR equations were applied to 1407 stream reaches delineated in the National Hydrography Data Set for Yosemite, and maps of predicted surface‐water nitrate and ANC concentrations were created. Predicted surface‐water nitrate concentrations were highest in small, high‐elevation cirques, and concentrations declined downstream. Predicted ANC concentrations showed the opposite pattern, except in high‐elevation areas underlain by metamorphic rocks along the Sierran Crest, which had relatively high predicted ANC (>200 μ eq L −1 ). Maps were created to show where basin characteristics predispose aquatic resources to nutrient enrichment and acidification effects from N and S deposition. The maps can be used to help guide development of water‐quality programs designed to monitor and protect natural resources in national parks.

Yosemite Nataional Park↗
USGS2012

ADV point measurements within rapids of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon

Rapids on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon attract over 20,000 white-water enthusiasts a year and are considered one of the premiere collections of rapids in North America. While this collection of rapids is an important recreational resource, relatively little is known of the specific hydraulics of individual rapids. Flow measurements are occasionally made in the low-velocity reaches between rapids, but the turbulent and dangerous nature of rapids makes in-situ data collection challenging. The present study measured hydraulics within a small rapid in Grand Canyon as well as an alluvial reach of the Colorado River in Glen Canyon using a Sontek Argonaut acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV) 2 . The ADV was mounted near the center-front of a motor-powered 19-foot J-snout boat; the instrument sample volume was located 80 cm below the surface. The quality of the measurements was best in the slower water above the rapid and in Glen Canyon. Waves, aeration, and high-velocity water rendered specific measurements in the core of the rapid difficult as the ADV instrument could only measure velocities less than about 3.0 m/s. Nonetheless, velocity, bathymetry, and water-surface maps were constructed for the rapid and the reach in Glen Canyon. The compiled data sets can be used for predicting the erosion potential of debris fans forming the rapid and the development of numerical models to better characterize rapids.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Timescales and processes of methane hydrate formation and breakdown, with application to geologic systems

Gas hydrate is an ice-like form of water and low molecular weight gas stable at temperatures of roughly -10ºC to 25ºC and pressures of ~3 to 30 MPa in geologic systems. Natural gas hydrates sequester an estimated one-sixth of Earth’s methane and are found primarily in deepwater marine sediments on continental margins, but also in permafrost areas and under continental ice sheets. When gas hydrate is removed from its stability field, its breakdown has implications for the global carbon cycle, ocean chemistry, marine geohazards, and interactions between the geosphere and the ocean-atmosphere system. Gas hydrate breakdown can also be artificially driven as a component of studies assessing the resource potential of these deposits. Furthermore, geologic processes and perturbations to the ocean-atmosphere system (e.g., warming temperatures) can cause not only dissociation, but also more widespread dissolution of hydrate or even formation of new hydrate in reservoirs. Linkages between gas hydrate and disparate aspects of Earth’s near-surface physical, chemical, and biological systems render an assessment of the rates and processes affecting the persistence of gas hydrate an appropriate Centennial Grand Challenge. This paper reviews the thermodynamic controls on methane hydrate stability and then describes the relative importance of kinetic, mass transfer, and heat transfer processes in the formation and breakdown (dissociation and dissolution) of gas hydrate. Results from numerical modeling, laboratory, and some fields studies are used to summarize the rates of hydrate formation and breakdown, followed by an extensive treatment of hydrate dynamics in marine and cryospheric gas hydrate systems.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth↗
USGS2013

USGS Arctic Ocean carbon cruise 2011: field activity H-01-11-AR to collect carbon data in the Arctic Ocean, August - September 2011

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the surface of the ocean by reacting with seawater to form a weak, naturally occurring acid called carbonic acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (Sabine and others, 2004). Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Orr and others, 2005; Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO 2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats (Raven and others, 2005; Ruttiman, 2006). The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

Data Series↗
USGS2001

The tides and inflows in the mangroves of the Everglades (TIME) interdisciplinary project of the South Florida Ecosystem Program

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a prominent role in the Federal Government's comprehensive restoration plan for the south Florida ecosystem encompassing the Everglades-the largest remaining subtropical wilderness in the continental United States. USGS scientists, in collaboration with researchers from the National Park Service (NPS), other governmental agencies, and academia, are providing scientific information to land and resource managers for planning, executing, and evaluating restoration actions. One major thrust of the restoration effort is to restore the natural functioning of the ecosystem to predrainage conditions, an objective that requires knowledge of the hydrologic and hydraulic factors that affect the flow of water. A vast network of interlaced canals, rimmed with levees and fitted with hydraulic control structures, and highways, built on elevated embankments lined by borrow ditches and undercut by culverts, now act to control and direct the flow of water through the shallow low-gradient wetlands. As water flows south from Lake Okeechobee past the city of Miami and through Everglades National Park (ENP), it is diminished by canal diversions, augmented by seasonably variable precipitation, and depleted through evapotranspiration. Along its path, the shallow flowing water, referred to as sheet flow, interacts with surficial aquifers and is subject to the resistance effects of variably dense vegetation and forcing effects of winds. New scientific investigations are providing additional insight into the hydrologic and hydraulic processes governing the flow, and recent data-collection efforts are supplying more comprehensive data describing the flow behavior, both of which are benefiting development of improved numerical models to evaluate and restore the natural functioning of the ecosystem.

Florida↗
USGS2004

Hydrogeology and ground-water-flow simulation in the former airfield area of Naval Support Activity Mid-South, Millington, Tennessee

Naval Support Activity Mid-South is a Department of the Navy base located in Millington, Tennessee. The facility was home to the Naval Aviation Technical Training Center from 1943 until 1996. As part of the Base Closure and Realignment Act of 1990, the primary training mission of the facility was realigned and most of the northern part of the base, referred to as the Northside and consisting primarily of an airfield, was transferred to the city of Millington in January 2000. During environmental investigations at the base, plumes of dissolved chlorinated solvents resulting from past aircraft maintenance and training operations were identified in shallow ground water beneath the airfield area. The airfield area containing the plumes has been designated as Area of Concern (AOC) A. Chlorinated solvents, primarily trichloroethene (TCE), are the principal contaminants in ground water at AOC A, with TCE identified in concentrations as high as 4,400 micrograms per liter. The nature and extent of these plumes at AOC A were addressed during a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Facility Investigation, and selected options for remediation currently are being implemented under a corrective action program. As part of these efforts, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working with the Navy and its consultants to study the hydrogeologic framework of the base and surrounding area, with a focus on AOC A. Since 1997, investigations at and near the facility have produced data prompting revisions and additions to information published that year in two USGS reports. The updates are presented in this report and consist primarily of (1) refinements to selected hydrogeologic maps presented in the 1997 reports, on the basis of data collected from new wells at on- and off-base locations, (2) additional hydraulic-conductivity data collected for the alluvial-fluvial deposits aquifer at AOC A, and (3) construction of a potentiometric-surface map of the shallow aquifer for the former part of the Naval Support Activity Mid-South Northside and adjacent off-base locations for February and March 2000 water-level conditions. Additionally, a numerical ground-water-flow model of AOC A was developed and calibrated to the February and March 2000 potentiometric-surface data, the results of which also are presented in this report. Particle-tracking simulations were used with the model to simulate ground-water-flow paths from two sites suspected of being contaminant source areas at AOC A. The flow paths indicated by the particle tracking simulations agree reasonably well with maps of the interpreted extents of TCE plumes. The time-of-travel plots show that advective travel times from the two suspected source areas to the model boundary are controlled by relative proximities of the source areas to a part of AOC A identified from investigations and simulated with the model as having the highest horizontal hydraulic conductivity.

Tennessee↗
USGS2025

Estimation of baseflow and flooding characteristics for East Canyon Creek, Summit and Morgan Counties, Utah

An improved understanding of hydrologic responses to changing climatic conditions is needed to better inform water management practices. East Canyon Creek, a perennial, snowmelt-dominated stream in the Wasatch Mountains of northern Utah, is subjected to increasing development and demands on water in the Snyderville Basin and adjacent areas. In this study, streamflow and specific conductance measured at three U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on East Canyon Creek were used to estimate daily baseflow for water years 2011–22. Trends in these estimates and correlations with climate data from two Natural Resource Conservation Service snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations within the Snyderville Basin above East Canyon Reservoir, were quantified and reported. Peak annual streamflow also was assessed for flood potential on the study reach of East Canyon Creek. The hydrograph separations showed consistent baseflow indices among all sites, with a larger baseflow component during the fall–spring period (September–April; baseflow indices approximately equal to [≈] 0.751–0.835) and smaller component during the summer period (May–August; baseflow indices ≈ 0.428–0.532). In-stream specific conductance during spring (February–April) was influenced by road salt application, limiting the utility of the hydrograph separation approach. Annual streamflow and climate data were evaluated for trends using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test, with inconclusive results. Related tests for trends, the Seasonal and Regional Kendall tests, were used to evaluate data at monthly timesteps and indicated a decreasing trend in total streamflow and baseflow at all streamgages. The rank-based Kendall’s tau test for correlation was used to measure the ordinal association with climatic data at co-located SNOTEL stations. Total streamflow and baseflow were strongly correlated with precipitation and snow-water equivalent. By incorporating a predictive regression model, the nonparametric Theil–Sen line, these correlations could support the development of streamflow forecast models using climate data from SNOTEL stations. Such models would provide water managers with tools to help make proactive decisions, such as reservoir or water reclamation releases and curtailment of withdrawals, in response to regional drought or varying snowpack and spring runoff in a given year.

Utah↗
USGS2010

Groundwater transport of strontium 90 in a glacial outwash environment

As part of the investigation of groundwater contamination at a uranium-scrap recovery plant at Wood River Junction, Rhode Island, laboratory experiments led to the development of a model for predicting the transport of strontium 90 in glacial outwash sediments based on an approximate mechanism for ion exchange. The multicomponent system was simplified to two components by regarding all exchangeable cations other than strontium 90 as a single component. The binary ion-exchange parameter was a function of the variable, total ion concentration. A one-dimensional solute transport model was formulated to evaluate the time necessary for natural groundwater flow to remove the strontium 90 contamination plume from the groundwater system to the Pawcatuck River. The finite difference transport equations were solved sequentially for total ion concentrations, then strontium 90 concentrations. Clay-free quartz and feldspar sands at the study site have little potential for strontium 90 sorption, and high calcium, magnesium, and sodium concentrations compete for the few ion exchange sites. As the total ion concentration plume moves out of the system, ion exchange of strontium 90 increases, reducing the strontium 90 concentration in the groundwater. Cleanout times predicted using the binary ion exchange mechanism were about two thirds of those predicted using a constant distribution coefficient. It is suggested that this type of model can simulate solute transport more realistically in many groundwater systems where the total ion concentration is not constant.

Rhode Island↗
USGS2017

Evaluating and improving count-based population inference: A case study from 31 years of monitoring Sandhill Cranes

Monitoring animal populations can be difficult. Limited resources often force monitoring programs to rely on unadjusted or smoothed counts as an index of abundance. Smoothing counts is commonly done using a moving-average estimator to dampen sampling variation. These indices are commonly used to inform management decisions, although their reliability is often unknown. We outline a process to evaluate the biological plausibility of annual changes in population counts and indices from a typical monitoring scenario and compare results with a hierarchical Bayesian time series (HBTS) model. We evaluated spring and fall counts, fall indices, and model-based predictions for the Rocky Mountain population (RMP) of Sandhill Cranes ( Antigone canadensis ) by integrating juvenile recruitment, harvest, and survival into a stochastic stage-based population model. We used simulation to evaluate population indices from the HBTS model and the commonly used 3-yr moving average estimator. We found counts of the RMP to exhibit biologically unrealistic annual change, while the fall population index was largely biologically realistic. HBTS model predictions suggested that the RMP changed little over 31 yr of monitoring, but the pattern depended on assumptions about the observational process. The HBTS model fall population predictions were biologically plausible if observed crane harvest mortality was compensatory up to natural mortality, as empirical evidence suggests. Simulations indicated that the predicted mean of the HBTS model was generally a more reliable estimate of the true population than population indices derived using a moving 3-yr average estimator. Practitioners could gain considerable advantages from modeling population counts using a hierarchical Bayesian autoregressive approach. Advantages would include: (1) obtaining measures of uncertainty; (2) incorporating direct knowledge of the observational and population processes; (3) accommodating missing years of data; and (4) forecasting population size.

The Condor↗
USGS2016

Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and Argonne National Laboratory, completed a decision analysis to use in the evaluation of alternatives in the Environmental Impact Statement concerning the long-term management of water releases from Glen Canyon Dam and associated management activities. Two primary decision analysis methods, multicriteria decision analysis and the expected value of information, were used to evaluate the alternative strategies against the resource goals and to evaluate the influence of uncertainty. A total of 18 performance metrics associated with 8 out of 12 resource goals (fundamental objectives) were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation and National Park Service in partnership with subject-matter teams composed of Federal, State, tribal, and private experts. A total of 19 long-term strategies associated with 7 alternatives were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, Argonne National Laboratory, U.S. Geological Survey, and Cooperating Agencies. The 19 long-term strategies were evaluated against the 18 performance metrics using a series of coupled simulation models, taking into account the effects of several important sources of uncertainty. A total of 27 Federal, State, tribal, and nongovernmental agencies were invited by the Assistant Secretary of Interior to participate in a swing-weighting exercise to understand the range of perspectives about how to place relative value on the resource goals and performance metrics; 14 of the 27 chose to participate. The results of the swing-weighting exercise were combined with the evaluation of the alternatives to complete a multicriteria decision analysis. The effects of uncertainty on the ranking of long-term strategies were evaluated through calculation of the value of information. The alternatives and their long-term strategies differed across performance metrics, producing unavoidable tradeoffs; thus, there was no long-term strategy that was dominated by another across all performance metrics. When the performance of each alternative was weighted across performance metrics, three alternatives (B, D, and G) were top-ranked depending on the set of weights proposed: Alternative B was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on hydropower; Alternative G was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on the restoration of natural processes, like beachbuilding and natural vegetation; and Alternative D was favored by the remaining stakeholders. Surprisingly, these rankings were not sensitive to the critical uncertainties that were evaluated; that is, the choice of a preferred long-term strategy was sensitive to the value-based judgment about how to place relative weight on the resource goals but was not sensitive to the uncertainties in the system dynamics that were evaluated in this analysis. The one area of uncertainty that did slightly affect the ranking of alternatives was the long-term pattern of hydrological input; because of this sensitivity, some attention to the possible effects of climate change is warranted. The results of the decision analysis are meant to serve as only one of many sources of information that can be used to evaluate the alternatives proposed in the Environmental Impact Statement. These results only focus on those resource goals for which quantitative performance metrics could be formulated and evaluated; there are other important aspects of the resource goals that also need to be considered. Not all the stakeholders who were invited to participate in the decision analysis chose to do so; thus, the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and U.S. Department of Interior may want to consider other input.

Arizona↗
USGS1983

Estimating peak discharges of small, rural streams in Massachusetts

Floodflows on natural-flow streams in Massachusetts with drainage areas between 0.25 square miles and 260 square miles may be estimated from drainage area, main-channel slope, mean basin elevation, and the area of swamps, lakes, and ponds. Multiple-regression techniques were used to define the relationship between a suite of basin and climatic characteristics and flood peaks in three flood-frequency regions at a total of 95 sites. Station flood-frequency data were computed following guidelines in Bulletin 17A of the U.S. Water Resources Council. The frequency analyses are based upon weighted skew values, adjustments for high and low outliers, and historic peak data. Regression equations for estimation of peak discharges for 0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, and 0.01 exceedance probabilities are provided for ungaged sites. An improved sample of flood peaks and gaging stations and the definition of three flood-frequency regions reduced the standard errors of estimate by about 5 percent over those for the 1977 relations. Included in this analysis were the synthetic flood-frequency data at 8 sites computed using historic climatic data and 10 parameters optimized by calibration of the U.S. Geological Survey's rainfall-runoff model with storm data observed over 11 years. The equations are applicable to streams unaffected by regulation where the usable manmade storage is less than 4.5 million cubic feet per square mile, or by diversions or urbanization. The equations are restricted to sites where the basin indices are within a specified range outside of eastern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, or Nantucket Counties. In these areas, the available data do not adequately define the influence of high infiltration and storage capacities of drainage basins on floodflows.

Water Supply Paper↗
USGS1982

Estimating peak discharges of small rural streams in Massachusetts

Floodflows on natural-flow streams in Massachusetts with drainage areas between 0.25 square miles and 260 square miles may be estimated from drainage area, main-channel slope, mean basin elevation, and the area of swamps, lakes, and ponds. Multiple-regression techniques were used to define the relationship between a suite of basin and climatic characteristics and flood peaks in three flood-frequency regions at a total of 95 sites. Station flood-frequency data were computed following guidelines in Bulletin I7A of the U.S. Water Resources Council. The frequency analyses are based upon weighted skew values, and adjustments for high and low outliers, and historic peak data. Regression equations for estimation of peak discharges for 0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, and 0.01 exceedance probabilities are provided for ungaged sites. An improved sample of flood peaks and gaging stations and the definition of three flood-frequency regions reduced the standard error of estimate by about 5 percent over those for the 1977 relations. Included in this analysis were the synthetic flood-frequency data at eight sites computed using historic climatic data and 10 parameters optimized by calibration of the U.S. Geological Survey's rainfall-runoff model with storm data observed over II years. The equations are applicable to streams unaffected by regulation where the usable manmade storage is less than 4.5 million cubic feet per square mile, or by diversions or urbanization. The equations are restricted to sites where the basin indices are within a specified range outside of eastern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes or Nantucket Counties. In these areas, the available data do not adequately define the influence of high infiltration and storage capacities of drainage basins on floodflows.

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