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Land-cover change in the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative, 1973 to 2000

This report summarizes baseline land-cover change information for four time intervals from between 1973 and 2000 for the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC). The study used sample data from the USGS Land Cover Trends dataset to develop estimates of change for 10 land-cover classes in the LCC. The results show that an estimated 17.7 percent of the LCC land cover had a change during the 27-year period. Cyclic forest dynamics—of timber harvest and regrowth—are the most extensive types of land conversion. Agricultural land had an estimated net decline of 3.5 percent as cropland and pasture were urbanized and developed and converted to forest use. Urban and other developed land covers expanded from 2.0 percent of the LCC in 1973 to 3.1 percent in 2000. The report also highlights causes and challenges of land-cover change.

Gulf Coastal Plains, Ozarks↗

Assessing landscape constraints on species abundance: Does the neighborhood limit species response to local habitat conservation programs?

Landscapes in agricultural systems continue to undergo significant change, and the loss of biodiversity is an ever-increasing threat. Although habitat restoration is beneficial, management actions do not always result in the desired outcome. Managers must understand why management actions fail; yet, past studies have focused on assessing habitat attributes at a single spatial scale, and often fail to consider the importance of ecological mechanisms that act across spatial scales. We located survey sites across southern Nebraska, USA and conducted point counts to estimate Ring-necked Pheasant abundance, an economically important species to the region, while simultaneously quantifying landscape effects using a geographic information system. To identify suitable areas for allocating limited management resources, we assessed land cover relationships to our counts using a Bayesian binomial-Poisson hierarchical model to construct predictive Species Distribution Models of relative abundance. Our results indicated that landscape scale land cover variables severely constrained or, alternatively, facilitated the positive effects of local land management for Ring-necked Pheasants.

Nebraska↗

Groundwater levels, geochemistry, and water budget of the Tsala Apopka Lake system, west-central Florida, 2004–12

Tsala Apopka Lake is a complex system of lakes and wetlands, with intervening uplands, located in Citrus County in west-central Florida. It is located within the 2,100 square mile watershed of the Withlacoochee River, which drains north and northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico. The lake system is managed by the Southwest Florida Water Management District as three distinct “pools,” which from upstream to downstream are referred to as the Floral City Pool, Inverness Pool, and Hernando Pool. Each pool contains a mixture of deep-water lakes that remain wet year round, ephemeral (seasonal) ponds and wetlands, and dry uplands. Many of the major deep-water lakes are interconnected by canals. Flow from the Withlacoochee River, when conditions allow, can be diverted into the lake system. Flow thorough the canals can be used to control the distribution of water between the three pools. Flow in the canals is controlled using structures, such as gates and weirs. Hydrogeologic units in the study area include a surficial aquifer consisting of Quaternary-age sediments, a discontinuous intermediate confining unit consisting of Miocene- and Pliocene-age sediments, and the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer, which consists of Eocene- and Oligocene-age carbonates. The fine-grained quartz sands that constitute the surficial aquifer are generally thin, typically less than 25 feet thick, within the vicinity of Tsala Apopka Lake. A thin, discontinuous, sandy clay layer forms the intermediate confining unit. The Upper Floridan aquifer is generally unconfined in the vicinity of Tsala Apopka Lake because the intermediate confining unit is discontinuous and breached by numerous karst features. In the study area, the Upper Floridan aquifer includes the upper Avon Park Formation and Ocala Limestone. The Ocala Limestone is the primary source of drinking water and spring flow in the area. The objectives of this study are to document the interaction of Tsala Apopka Lake, the surficial aquifer, and the Upper Floridan aquifer; and to estimate an annual water budget for each pool and for the entire lake system for 2004–12. The hydrologic interactions were evaluated using hydraulic head and geochemical data. Geochemical data, including major ion, isotope, and age-tracer data, were used to evaluate sources of water and to distinguish flow paths. Hydrologic connection of the surficial environment (lakes, ponds, wetlands, and the surficial aquifer) was quantified on the basis of a conceptualized annual water-budget model. The model included the change in surface water and groundwater storage, precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface-water inflow and outflow, and net groundwater exchange with the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer. The control volume for each pool extended to the base of the surficial aquifer and covered an area defined to exceed the maximum inundated area for each pool during 2004–12 by 0.5 foot. Net groundwater flow was computed as a lumped value and was either positive or negative, with a negative value indicating downward or lateral leakage from the control volume and a positive value indicating upward leakage to the control volume. The annual water budget for Tsala Apopka Lake was calculated using a combination of field observations and remotely sensed data for each of three pools and for the composite three pool area. A digital elevation model at a 5-foot grid spacing and bathymetric survey data were used to define the land-surface elevation and volume of each pool and to calculate the changes in inundated area with change in lake stage. Continuous lake-stage and groundwater-level data were used to define the change in storage for each pool. The rainfall data used in the water-budget calculations were based on daily radar reflectance data and measured rainfall from weather stations. Evapotranspiration was computed as a function of reference evapotranspiration, adjusted to actual evapotranspiration using a monthly land-cover coefficient (based on evapotranspiration measurements at stations located in representative landscapes). Surface-water inflows and outflows were determined using stage data collected at a series of streamgages installed primarily at the water-control structures. Discharge was measured under varying flow regimes and ratings were developed for the water-control structures. The discharge data collected during the study period were used to calibrate a surface-water flow model for 2004–12. Flows predicted by the model were used in the water-budget analysis. Net groundwater flow was determined as the residual term in the water-budget equation. The results of the water-budget analysis indicate that rainfall was the largest input of water to Tsala Apopka Lake, whereas evapotranspiration was the largest output. For the 2004–12 analysis period, surface-water inflow accounted for 11 percent of the inputs, net groundwater inflow accounted for 1 percent of inputs (annual periods with positive net groundwater flow were included as inputs, while annual periods with negative net groundwater flow were counted as outputs), and rainfall accounted for the remaining 88 percent. For the same period, the outputs consisted of 2 percent surface-water outflow, 12 percent net groundwater outflow, and 86 percent evapotranspiration. Net groundwater inflows and surface-water/groundwater storage were negligible during the water-budget period but could be important components of the budget in individual years. The net groundwater flow was negative (downward) for 8 out of the 9 years modeled (2004–12), indicating that the Tsala Apopka Lake study area was primarily a recharge area for the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer during this time period. Groundwater-level elevation in paired wells (adjacent wells completed in the surficial aquifer and Upper Floridan aquifer) typically was higher in the surficial aquifer than the Upper Floridan aquifer. However, hydraulic head data indicate that the surficial aquifer often has discharge potential to the surface-water system, especially in the low lying areas near the major lakes. Surficial-aquifer water levels were often higher than lake stages, especially during wet periods, which is likely an indication of aquifer-to-lake seepage in these areas. East of the major lakes, hydraulic head data were nearly equal in the surficial aquifer and Upper Floridan aquifer, which is an indication that the Upper Floridan aquifer is unconfined. Based on deuterium and oxygen stable isotope data collected in December 2011 and December 2012, there was no evidence of recharge to the Upper Floridan aquifer from the wetlands east of the major lakes; aquifer isotopic ratios did not indicate an enriched source, which is typical of lake and wetland sources. West of the major lakes, there was evidence of enriched isotopic ratios in water samples from the Upper Floridan aquifer. Differences in hydraulic head at paired wells in the surficial aquifer and Upper Floridan aquifer indicated that the surficial aquifer has the potential to recharge the Upper Floridan aquifer in the western part of the pools and west of the major lakes.

Florida↗

Cumulative drought and land-use impacts on perennial vegetation across a North American dryland region

Question The decline and loss of perennial vegetation in dryland ecosystems due to global change pressures can alter ecosystem properties and initiate land degradation processes. We tracked changes of perennial vegetation using remote sensing to address the question of how prolonged drought and land-use intensification have affected perennial vegetation cover across a desert region in the early 21st century? Location Mojave Desert, southeastern California, southern Nevada, southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, USA. Methods We coupled the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (MODIS-EVI) with ground-based measurements of perennial vegetation cover taken in about 2000 and about 2010. Using the difference between these years, we determined perennial vegetation changes in the early 21st century and related these shifts to climate, soil and landscape properties, and patterns of land use. Results We found a good fit between MODIS-EVI and perennial vegetation cover (2000: R 2 = 0.83 and 2010: R 2 = 0.74). The southwestern, far southeastern and central Mojave Desert had large declines in perennial vegetation cover in the early 21st century, while the northeastern and southeastern portions of the desert had increases. These changes were explained by 10-yr precipitation anomalies, particularly in the cool season and during extreme dry or wet years. Areas heavily impacted by visitor use or wildfire lost perennial vegetation cover, and vegetation in protected areas increased to a greater degree than in unprotected areas. Conclusions We find that we can extrapolate previously documented declines of perennial plant cover to an entire desert, and demonstrate that prolonged water shortages coupled with land-use intensification create identifiable patterns of vegetation change in dryland regions.

Applied Vegetation Science↗

Effect of land cover change on snow free surface albedo across the continental United States

Land cover changes (e.g., forest to grassland) affect albedo, and changes in albedo can influence radiative forcing (warming, cooling). We empirically tested albedo response to land cover change for 130 locations across the continental United States using high resolution (30 m-×-30 m) land cover change data and moderate resolution (~ 500 m-×-500 m) albedo data. The land cover change data spanned 10 years (2001 − 2011) and the albedo data included observations every eight days for 13 years (2001 − 2013). Empirical testing was based on autoregressive time series analysis of snow free albedo for verified locations of land cover change. Approximately one-third of the autoregressive analyses for woody to herbaceous or forest to shrub change classes were not significant, indicating that albedo did not change significantly as a result of land cover change at these locations. In addition, ~ 80% of mean differences in albedo arising from land cover change were less than ± 0.02, a nominal benchmark for precision of albedo measurements that is related to significant changes in radiative forcing. Under snow free conditions, we found that land cover change does not guarantee a significant albedo response, and that the differences in mean albedo response for the majority of land cover change locations were small.

Global and Planetary Change↗

Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗

A 125 year history of topographic mapping and GIS in the U.S. Geological Survey 1884-2009, part 2: 1980-2009

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) entered the mainstream of developments in computer-assisted technology for mapping during the 1970s. The introduction by USGS of digital line graphs (DLGs), digital elevation models (DEMs), and land use data analysis (LUDA) nationwide land-cover data provided a base for the rapid expansion of the use of GIS in the 1980s. Whereas USGS had developed the topologically structured DLG data and the Geographic Information Retrieval and Analysis System (GIRAS) for land-cover data, the Map Overlay Statistical System (MOSS), a nontopologically structured GIS software package developed by Autometric, Inc., under contract to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, dominated the use of GIS by federal agencies in the 1970s. Thus, USGS data was used in MOSS, but the topological structure, which later became a requirement for GIS vector datasets, was not used in early GIS applications. The introduction of Esri's ARC/INFO in 1982 changed that, and by the end of the 1980s, topological structure for vector data was essential, and ARC/INFO was the dominant GIS software package used by federal agencies.

ArcNews↗

Performances of WorldView-3, Sentinel-2, and Landsat-8 data in mapping impervious surface

Many efforts have been made to map developed impervious surface from remotely sensed information in the last two decades. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) to provide consistent land cover and change products for the Nation since 2001. Percent impervious surface area (ISA), one of the products in NLCD as a continuous field and estimated with Landsat imagery, represents the fraction of human-made impervious area in a 30 m resolution grid. ISA is used to map urban land cover types and extents for the United States. However, it is still a challenge to quantify highly heterogeneous features in many urban areas using remotely sensed data with spatial and spectral resolutions similar to Landsat and to determine the impacts of remotely sensed data characteristics on ISA mapping.

California, Texas↗

Multispectral image sharpening using a shift-invariant wavelet transform and adaptive processing of multiresolution edges

Enhanced false color images from mid-IR, near-IR (NIR), and visible bands of the Landsat thematic mapper (TM) are commonly used for visually interpreting land cover type. Described here is a technique for sharpening or fusion of NIR with higher resolution panchromatic (Pan) that uses a shift-invariant implementation of the discrete wavelet transform (SIDWT) and a reported pixel-based selection rule to combine coefficients. There can be contrast reversals (e.g., at soil-vegetation boundaries between NIR and visible band images) and consequently degraded sharpening and edge artifacts. To improve performance for these conditions, I used a local area-based correlation technique originally reported for comparing image-pyramid-derived edges for the adaptive processing of wavelet-derived edge data. Also, using the redundant data of the SIDWT improves edge data generation. There is additional improvement because sharpened subband imagery is used with the edge-correlation process. A reported technique for sharpening three-band spectral imagery used forward and inverse intensity, hue, and saturation transforms and wavelet-based sharpening of intensity. This technique had limitations with opposite contrast data, and in this study sharpening was applied to single-band multispectral-Pan image pairs. Sharpening used simulated 30-m NIR imagery produced by degrading the spatial resolution of a higher resolution reference. Performance, evaluated by comparison between sharpened and reference image, was improved when sharpened subband data were used with the edge correlation.

Conference Paper↗

Three decades of urbanization: Estimating the impact of land-cover change on stream salamander populations

Urbanization has become the dominant form of landscape disturbance in parts of the United States. Small streams in the Piedmont region of the eastern United States support high densities of salamanders and are often the first habitats to be affected by landscape-altering factors such as urbanization. We used US Geological Survey land cover data from 1972 to 2000 and a relation between stream salamanders and land cover, established from recent research, to estimate the impact of contemporary land-cover change on the abundance of stream salamanders near Davidson, North Carolina, a Piedmont locale that has experienced rapid urbanization during this time. Our analysis indicates that southern two-lined salamander ( Eurycea cirrigera ) populations have decreased from 32% to 44% while northern dusky salamanders ( Desmognathus fuscus ) have decreased from 21% to 30% over the last three decades. Our results suggest that the widespread conversion of forest to urban land in small catchments has likely resulted in a substantial decline of populations of stream salamanders and could have serious effects on stream ecosystems.

Biological Conservation↗

Reassessing water availability in the Nile River Basin using satellite-based irrigation water use accounting

Existing estimates of irrigation areas and water use in the Nile River Basin vary widely and are based on inconsistent data and methodologies. This study leverages advances in remote sensing to provide an up-to-date and consistent basin-wide reassessment of water use in the Nile River Basin. Land cover and actual evapotranspiration data from 2013 to 2022 were used to quantify irrigated areas, irrigation water use, and the average naturalized water yield. Across the basin, 7.1 million hectares of irrigated land consume an average of 72.5 ± 2.6 billion cubic meters (BCM) of blue water annually. Egypt and Sudan together account for 92% of the irrigated area and 97% of the irrigation water use. The basin’s average naturalized yield, evaluated at Dongola station, is determined to be between 108 and 114.4 ± 3.2 BCM. Although conservative, this updated analysis indicates the basin’s average naturalized yield is 14%–20% higher than the previous naturalized yield estimate (95 BCM) and 29%–36% higher than the commonly cited observed flow of 84 BCM, which is frequently treated as the total basin-wide available water. Importantly, the study underscores that the 84 BCM represents flow at the Aswan gauging station after upstream consumptive uses, not the total water available in the basin under naturalized conditions. This distinction is critical for accurate water accounting, planning, and governance in this water-scarce basin. This study demonstrates the value of open-source remote sensing resources in data-scarce regions while emphasizing the need for region specific validation and bias correction for improved accuracy.

Nile River Basin↗

Evaluating low flow patterns, drivers and trends in the Delaware River Basin

In the humid, temperate Delaware River Basin (DRB) where water availability is generally reliable, summer low flows can cause competition between various human and ecological water uses. As temperatures continue to rise, population increases and development expands, it is critical to understand historical low flow variability to anticipate and plan for future flows. Using a sample of 325 U.S. Geological Survey gages, we evaluated spatial patterns in several low flow metrics, the biophysical and climatic drivers of these metrics, and trends in low flows for two periods: 1950-2018 and 1980-2018. We calculated the annual 7-day low flow and date, low flow deficit as the departure below a long-term daily flow threshold and the number of discrete low flow periods below this threshold. We also aggregated several climate metrics to watershed scale and used existing watershed properties quantifying land cover, topography, soils, geology, and human activity. Random forest models were used to assess the hierarchy of variable importance in explaining mean-annual low flow variability for each low flow metric using all gages. We find muted regional patterns in mean-annual low flow and low flow variability, likely due to the myriad of anthropogenic, landscape, and flow modifications that obscure flow regimes from their natural characteristics. In contrast, individual years show markedly different spatial patterns in low flow magnitude and severity. Coincident with increases in precipitation, 7-day low flows have generally increased and low flow deficits decreased for both 1950-2018 and 1980-2018 periods. However, 7-day low flows have decreased in the Coastal Plain physiographic province where water use and impervious area have increased in recent decades, highlighting the effects of land and water management on low flows. With continued change expected in the DRB, additional research needs are highlighted to enable estimation of future low flows and to plan for periods of prolonged low flow.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗

Historic and forecasted population and land-cover change in eastern North Carolina, 1992-2030

The Southeast Regional Partnership for Planning and Sustainability (SERPPAS) was formed in 2005 as a partnership between the Department of Defense (DOD) and State and Federal agencies to promote better collaboration in making resource-use decisions. In support of this goal, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a study to evaluate historic population growth and land-cover change, and to model future change, for the 13-county SERPPAS study area in southeastern North Carolina (fig. 1). Improved understanding of trends in land-cover change and the ability to forecast land-cover change that is consistent with these trends will be a key component of efforts to accommodate local military-mission imperatives while also promoting sustainable economic growth throughout the 13-county study area. The study had three principal objectives: 1. Evaluate historic changes in population and land cover for the period 1992–2006 using both previously existing as well as newly generated land-cover data. 2. Develop models to forecast future change in land cover using the data gathered in objective 1 in conjunction with ancillary data on the suitability of the various sub-areas within the study area for low- and high-intensity urban development. 3. Deliver these results—including an executive-level briefing and a USGS technical report—to DOD, other project cooperators, and local counties in hard-copy and digital formats and via the Web through a map-based data viewer. This report provides a general overview of the study and is intended for general distribution to non-technical audiences.

North Carolina↗

Regional dynamics of grassland change in the western Great Plains

This paper examines the contemporary land-cover changes in two western Great Plains ecoregions between 1973 and 2000. Agriculture and other land uses can have a substantial effect on grassland cover that varies regionally depending on the primary driving forces of change. In order to better understand change, the rates, types, and causes of land conversion were examined for 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 using Landsat satellite data and a statistical sampling strategy. The overall estimated rate of land-cover change between 1973 and 2000 was 7.4% in the Northwestern Great Plains and 11.5% in the Western High Plains. Trends in both ecoregions have similarities, although the dynamics of change differ temporally depending on driving forces. Between 1973 and 1986, grassland cover declined when economic opportunity drove an expansion of agriculture. Between 1986 and 2000, grassland expanded as public policy and a combination of socioeconomic factors drove a conversion from agriculture to grassland. ?? 2007 Copyright by the Center for Great Plains Studies, University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

Conference Paper↗