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Vegetation change over 140 years in a sagebrush landscape of the Rio Grande del Norte National Monument, New Mexico, USA

Questions Big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) ecosystems across the western United States have experienced many changes in ecosystem dynamics and vegetation composition over the last century due to livestock grazing, non-native species, and changing climate and fire regimes. We conducted the first systematic investigation of historical vegetation composition and vegetation change in a sagebrush landscape in the southwestern United States, asking whether sagebrush or grass dominated the landscape historically? Location The Rio Grande del Norte National Monument (RGDN), northern New Mexico, USA. Methods We combined General Land Office (GLO) surveys from 1881 with modern vegetation maps, field vegetation surveys, and sagebrush ages from growth ring analysis to test for changes in vegetation in the RGDN over the last 140 years. Results We found that big sagebrush presence across the study area increased significantly, from being present on 16% of section lines in 1881 to 79% in 2019, and only three section lines lost sagebrush presence during that period. Concurrently, the number of section lines with low grass index more than doubled since 1881, while moderate and high grass index declined. Grass declined equally in areas where sagebrush increased and areas with no change in sagebrush, suggesting that changes in both vegetation types were catalyzed by external factors, likely including overgrazing. The growth ring analysis of 93 sagebrush revealed a maximum age of 87 years and establishment in every decade since the 1930s, consistent with the GLO results. Conclusions The significant vegetation changes in the RGDN over the last century, including an increase of sagebrush, provide important context about the shifting mosaic of grasslands and shrublands relevant to current and future management and ecosystem dynamics.

New Mexico↗

Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology

Phenological events – defined points in the life cycle of a plant or animal – have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reflecting flexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism – the tendency for closely related spe-cies to share similar ecological and biological attributes – in phenological traits across flowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of first flower and first leaf, encompassing ~4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the setof included species, first, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantified phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to flower and leaf at similar times. By contrastingmean flowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of yearthat is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our findings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses. Synthesis. Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conser ved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species’ shared evolutionary histories.

Journal of Ecology↗

Potential health impacts of burning coal beds and waste banks

Uncontrolled release of pollutants from burning coal beds and waste banks presents potential environmental and human health hazards. On a global scale, the emissions of large volumes of greenhouse gases from burning coal beds may contribute to climate change that alters ecosystems and patterns of disease occurrence. On regional and local scales, the emissions from burning coal beds and waste banks of acidic gases, particulates, organic compounds, and trace elements can contribute to a range of respiratory and other human health problems. Although there are few published reports of health problems caused by these emissions, the potential for problems can be significant. In India, large numbers of people have been displaced from their homes because of health problems caused by emissions from burning coal beds. Volatile elements such as arsenic, fluorine, mercury, and selenium are commonly enriched in coal deposits. Burning coal beds can volatilize these elements, which then can be inhaled, or adsorbed on crops and foods, taken up by livestock or bioaccumulated in birds and fish. Some of these elements can condense on dust particles that can be inhaled or ingested. In addition, selenium, arsenic, lead, tin, bismuth, fluorine, and other elements condense where the hot gaseous emissions come in contact with ambient air, forming mats of concentrated efflorescent minerals on the surface of the ground. These mats can be leached by rainwater and washed into local water bodies providing other potential routes of exposure. Although there are little data linking burning coal beds and waste banks to known health problems, a possibly analogous situation exists in rural China where mineralized coal burned in a residential environment has caused widespread and severe health problems such as fluorosis and arseniasis. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Rapid estimation of recharge potential in ephemeral-stream channels using electromagnetic methods, and measurements of channel and vegetation characteristics

To classify recharge potential (RCP) in ephemeral-stream channels, a method was developed that incorporates information about channel geometry, vegetation characteristics, and bed-sediment apparent electrical conductivity (??a). Recharge potential is not independently measurable, but is instead formulated as a site-specific, qualitative parameter. We used data from 259 transects across two ephemeral-stream channels near Sierra Vista, Arizona, a location with a semiarid climate. Seven data types were collected: ??a averaged over two depth intervals (0-3 m, and 0-6 m), channel incision depth and width, diameter-at-breast-height of the largest tree, woody-plant and grass density. A two-tiered system was used to classify a transect's RCP. In the first tier, transects were categorized by estimates of near-surface-sediment hydraulic permeability as low, moderate, or high using measurements of 0-3 m-depth ??a. Each of these categories was subdivided into low, medium, or high RCP classes using the remaining six data types, thus yielding a total of nine RCP designations. Six sites in the study area were used to compare RCP and ??a with previously measured surrogates for hydraulic permeability. Borehole-averaged percent fines showed a moderate correlation with both shallow and deep ??a measurements, however, correlation of point measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity, percent fines, and cylinder infiltrometer measurements with ??a and RCP was generally poor. The poor correlation was probably caused by the relatively large measurement volume and spatial averaging of ??a compared with the spatially-limited point measurements. Because of the comparatively large spatial extent of measurement transects and variety of data types collected, RCP estimates can give a more complete picture of the major factors affecting recharge at a site than is possible through point or borehole-averaged estimates of hydraulic permeability alone. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Review: The hydrogeology of critical mineral resources relevant to the energy transition

Attaining the goals of the international treaty on climate change (the Paris Agreement) will greatly increase the demand for the critical minerals required to implement clean-energy technologies. This poses both challenges and opportunities to the hydrogeologic community from several perspectives. Here, important insights that the hydrogeological sciences have to offer for mineral exploration, mineral production, and addressing environmental issues related to mining and mine decommissioning are summarized. This study focuses on copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths to represent the broad spectrum of critical minerals and illustrate their relevance by referring to projected demands and production rates. The current understanding of the hydrogeologic processes that form major deposits of these minerals are then summarized. Ore is defined as the naturally occurring material from which minerals of economic value can be extracted, where most ore deposits are the products of complex hydrogeologic couplings between fluid flow, heat transport, solute transport, chemical reactions, and mechanical deformation. Exploration models for the discovery of deeper, hidden deposits are potentially informed by hydrogeologic theory and hydrogeochemical processes. Hydrogeologic understanding and methods are also essential to production and recovery. Longstanding challenges are mine dewatering and (conversely) mine water supply, as well as mineral-extraction practices such as spoil heap leaching and in situ mining. New challenges arise from element extraction from subsurface brines. Finally, the quantity of water use and potential environmental impacts of mining on water quality are at the core of ‘social license’: the approval and acceptance of society to mining activities.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

Analysis of ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar data of frozen lakes in northern Montana and implications for climate studies

Lakes that freeze each winter are good indicators of regional climate change if key parameters, such as freeze-up and breakup date and maximum ice thickness, are measured over a decade-scale time frame. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data have proven to be especially useful for measurement of climatologically significant parameters characteristic of frozen lakes. In this paper, five lakes in Glacier National Park, Montana, have been studied both in the field and using Earth Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS) 1 SAR data during the 1992-1993 winter. The lakes are characterized by clear ice, sometimes with tubular or rounded bubbles, and often with a layer of snow ice on top of the clear ice. They are also often snow covered. Freeze-up is detected quite easily using ERS 1 SAR data as soon as a thin layer of ice forms. The effect of snow ice on the backscatter is thought to be significant but is, as yet, undetermined. On the five lakes studied, relative backscatter was found to increase with ice thickness until a maximum was reached in February. Breakup, an often ill-defined occurrence, is difficult to detect because surface water causes the SAR signal to be absorbed, thus masking the ice below. Comparison of the bubble structure of thaw lakes in northern Alaska with lakes in northern Montana has shown that the ice structure is quite different, and this difference may contribute to differential SAR signature evolution in the lakes of the two areas.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

Initial insights on the thermal ecology of lake whitefish in northwestern Lake Michigan

Lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis are a native coldwater species supporting important recreational and commercial fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Climate-related changes in water temperature may have important implications for the future sustainability of these fisheries. However, projecting future habitat availability is difficult because limited information is available on lake whitefish thermal ecology in the region. In this study, archival temperature loggers were implanted into 400 lake whitefish from northwestern Lake Michigan, including Green Bay, during October–November 2017. Loggers recorded temperature for 11 months at 4-hr intervals. Thirteen recovered temperature loggers were used in analyses. In winter (1 December–31 March), temperatures occupied by lake whitefish ranged from 0 to 8.0 °C, while in spring (1 April–31 May) temperatures ranged from 0 to 20.0 °C. In summer (1 June–15 September) and fall (16 September–7 November), lake whitefish occupied temperatures of 4–21.5 and 4–21.0 °C, respectively. Average temperatures in summer (10.8 °C) were within the previously proposed optimal temperature range (10–14 °C) and broad thermal niche (7–17 °C); however, 58% of observations were outside the optimal temperature range and 11% of observations were outside the broad thermal niche. Our results suggest that lake whitefish from northwestern Lake Michigan inhabit temperatures both above and below previously reported expected temperature ranges. This study provides initial insights on lake whitefish thermal ecology in Lake Michigan and can be used as a baseline for future work aimed at determining how lake whitefish habitat availability may change in the future.

Wisconsin↗

A comparison of models for estimating potential evapotranspiration for Florida land cover types

We analyzed observed daily evapotranspiration (DET) at 18 sites having measured DET and ancillary climate data and then used these data to compare the performance of three common methods for estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET): the Turc method (Tc), the Priestley-Taylor method (PT) and the Penman-Monteith method (PM). The sites were distributed throughout the State of Florida and represent a variety of land cover types: open water (3), marshland (4), grassland/pasture (4), citrus (2) and forest (5). Not surprisingly, the highest DET values occurred at the open water sites, ranging from an average of 3.3 mm d -1 in the winter to 5.3 mm d -1 in the spring. DET at the marsh sites was also high, ranging from 2.7 mm d -1 in winter to 4.4 mm d -1 in summer. The lowest DET occurred in the winter and fall seasons at the grass sites (1.3 mm d -1 and 2.0 mm d -1 , respectively) and at the forested sites (1.8 mm d -1 and 2.3 mm d -1 , respectively). The performance of the three methods when applied to conditions close to PET (Bowen ratio ≤ 1) was used to judge relative merit. Under such PET conditions, annually aggregated Tc and PT methods perform comparably and outperform the PM method, possibly due to the sensitivity of the PM method to the limited transferability of previously determined model parameters. At a daily scale, the PT performance appears to be superior to the other two methods for estimating PET for a variety of land covers in Florida.

Florida↗

Implications of fire-induced evapotranspiration shifts for recharge-runoff generation and vegetation conversion in the western United States

Wildfire has been shown to increase, decrease, or have no detectable effect on actual evapotranspiration (ETa) fluxes in the western United States. Where disturbance-induced shifts are significant, source-water hydrology may be impacted as ETa constitutes the largest outgoing water flux in much of the arid West. We conducted pixel-scale analysis of 30-m ETa data and various meteorologic and landscape variables at 13 burn scars to understand how wildfire disturbance impacted hillslope-to-burn scar-scale hydrology and vegetation conversion. Significant fire-induced ETa reductions (between approximately −15 to −50%) were detected at nine burn scars through the tenth post-fire year, while ETa recovery rate varied substantially by ecoregion and pre-fire vegetation type. Along elevation gradients, both climate and land disturbance influenced the location of runoff/recharge generation zones, and more net water was generated from a snow-dominated burn scar in dry post-fire years than in wet pre-fire years. However, especially in arid locations where ETa is water-limited, compensatory ETa pathways may be more likely to dampen fire effects on total basin water yield where intact vegetation is located between the disturbance footprint and the basin outlet. Relationships between post-fire ETa shifts and early-successional vegetation conversion were also tracked. The majority of burn scars with significant fire-induced ETa reductions experienced conversion patterns typical of the western United States following stand-replacing disturbance, with forests converting to shrub/scrub and/or grassland/herbaceous cover through at least the end of the study period (eight to 15 years depending on date of the fire event). This could have important implications for high-elevation, snow-dominated watersheds – some of the most critical source water areas - as previous research indicates that wildfire activity is moving upslope and into vegetation communities that have not evolved to withstand fire. Finally, we show that much of the Colorado River Basin’s high-yield source water areas are vulnerable to the fire-induced ETa reductions and vegetation conversion observed herein. As such, water managers in the Colorado River Basin can anticipate changes in burn scar hydrology and snowpack mechanics following fire disturbance.

Journal of Hydrology X↗

Submarine permafrost map in the arctic modelled using 1D transient heat flux (SuPerMAP)

Offshore permafrost plays a role in the global climate system, but observations of permafrost thickness, state, and composition are limited to specific regions. The current global permafrost map shows potential offshore permafrost distribution based on bathymetry and global sea level rise. As a first‐order estimate, we employ a heat transfer model to calculate the subsurface temperature field. Our model uses dynamic upper boundary conditions that synthesize Earth System Model air temperature, ice mass distribution and thickness, and global sea level reconstruction and applies globally distributed geothermal heat flux as a lower boundary condition. Sea level reconstruction accounts for differences between marine and terrestrial sedimentation history. Sediment composition and pore water salinity are integrated in the model. Model runs for 450 ka for cross‐shelf transects were used to initialize the model for circumarctic modeling for the past 50 ka. Preindustrial submarine permafrost (i.e., cryotic sediment), modeled at 12.5‐km spatial resolution, lies beneath almost 2.5 ×10 6 km 2 of the Arctic shelf. Our simple modeling approach results in estimates of distribution of cryotic sediment that are similar to the current global map and recent seismically delineated permafrost distributions for the Beaufort and Kara seas, suggesting that sea level is a first‐order determinant for submarine permafrost distribution. Ice content and sediment thermal conductivity are also important for determining rates of permafrost thickness change. The model provides a consistent circumarctic approach to map submarine permafrost and to estimate the dynamics of permafrost in the past.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

Biological invasions, ecological resilience and adaptive governance

In a world of increasing interconnections in global trade as well as rapid change in climate and land cover, the accelerating introduction and spread of invasive species is a critical concern due to associated negative social and ecological impacts, both real and perceived. Much of the societal response to invasive species to date has been associated with negative economic consequences of invasions. This response has shaped a war-like approach to addressing invasions, one with an agenda of eradications and intense ecological restoration efforts towards prior or more desirable ecological regimes. This trajectory often ignores the concept of ecological resilience and associated approaches of resilience-based governance. We argue that the relationship between ecological resilience and invasive species has been understudied to the detriment of attempts to govern invasions, and that most management actions fail, primarily because they do not incorporate adaptive, learning-based approaches. Invasive species can decrease resilience by reducing the biodiversity that underpins ecological functions and processes, making ecosystems more prone to regime shifts. However, invasions do not always result in a shift to an alternative regime; invasions can also increase resilience by introducing novelty, replacing lost ecological functions or adding redundancy that strengthens already existing structures and processes in an ecosystem. This paper examines the potential impacts of species invasions on the resilience of ecosystems and suggests that resilience-based approaches can inform policy by linking the governance of biological invasions to the negotiation of tradeoffs between ecosystem services.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Compensatory effects of recruitment and survival when amphibian populations are perturbed by disease

The need to increase our understanding of factors that regulate animal population dynamics has been catalysed by recent, observed declines in wildlife populations worldwide. Reliable estimates of demographic parameters are critical for addressing basic and applied ecological questions and understanding the response of parameters to perturbations (e.g. disease, habitat loss, climate change). However, to fully assess the impact of perturbation on population dynamics, all parameters contributing to the response of the target population must be estimated. We applied the reverse‐time model of Pradel in Program mark to 6 years of capture–recapture data from two populations of Anaxyrus boreas (boreal toad) populations, one with disease and one without. We then assessed a priori hypotheses about differences in survival and recruitment relative to local environmental conditions and the presence of disease. We further explored the relative contribution of survival probability and recruitment rate to population growth and investigated how shifts in these parameters can alter population dynamics when a population is perturbed. High recruitment rates (0·41) are probably compensating for low survival probability (range 0·51–0·54) in the population challenged by an emerging pathogen, resulting in a relatively slow rate of decline. In contrast, the population with no evidence of disease had high survival probability (range 0·75–0·78) but lower recruitment rates (0·25). Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the relationship between survival and recruitment may be compensatory, providing evidence that populations challenged with disease are not necessarily doomed to extinction. A better understanding of these interactions may help to explain, and be used to predict, population regulation and persistence for wildlife threatened with disease. Further, reliable estimates of population parameters such as recruitment and survival can guide the formulation and implementation of conservation actions such as repatriations or habitat management aimed to improve recruitment.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Avian malaria in a boreal resident species: long-term temporal variability, and increased prevalence in birds with avian keratin disorder

The prevalence of vector-borne parasitic diseases is widely influenced by biological and ecological factors. Environmental conditions such as temperature and precipitation can have a marked effect on haemosporidian parasites ( Plasmodium spp.) that cause malaria and those that cause other malaria-like diseases in birds. However, there have been few long-term studies monitoring haemosporidian infections in birds in northern latitudes, where weather conditions can be highly variable and the effects of climate change are becoming more pronounced. We used molecular methods to screen more than 2,000 blood samples collected from black-capped chickadees ( Poecile atricapillus ), a resident passerine bird. Samples were collected over a 10 year period, mostly during the non-breeding season, at seven sites in Alaska, USA. We tested for associations between Plasmodium prevalence and local environmental conditions including temperature, precipitation, site, year and season. We also evaluated the relationship between parasite prevalence and individual host factors of age, sex and presence or absence of avian keratin disorder. This disease, which causes accelerated keratin growth in the beak, provided a natural study system in which to test the interaction between disease state and malaria prevalence. Prevalence of Plasmodium infection varied by year, site, age and individual disease status but there was no support for an effect of sex or seasonal period. Significantly, birds with avian keratin disorder were 2.6 times more likely to be infected by Plasmodium than birds without the disorder. Interannual variation in the prevalence of Plasmodium infection at different sites was positively correlated with summer temperatures at the local but not statewide scale. Sequence analysis of the parasite cytochrome b gene revealed a single Plasmodium spp. lineage, P43. Our results demonstrate associations between prevalence of avian malaria and a variety of biological and ecological factors. These results also provide important baseline data that will be informative for predicting future changes in Plasmodium prevalence in the subarctic.

Alaska↗

Estimating soil respiration in a subalpine landscape using point, terrain, climate and greenness data

Landscape carbon (C) flux estimates are necessary for assessing the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to buffer further increases in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Advances in remote sensing have allowed for coarse-scale estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) (e.g., MODIS 17), yet efforts to assess spatial patterns in respiration lag behind those of GPP. Here, we demonstrate a method to predict growing season soil respiration at a regional scale in a forested ecosystem. We related field measurements (n=144) of growing season soil respiration across subalpine forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains ecoregion to a suite of biophysical predictors with a Random Forest model (30 m pixel size). We found that Landsat Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), growing season AI, temperature, precipitation, elevation, and slope aspect explained spatiotemporal variability in soil respiration. Our model had a psuedo-r2 of 0.45 and root mean squared error (RMSE) of roughly one-quarter of the mean value of respiration. Predicted growing season soil respiration across the region was remarkably consistent across 2004, 2005 and 2006 (150-d averages of 542.8, 544.3, and 536.5 g C m-2, respectively). Yet, we observed substantial variability in spatial patterns of soil respiration predictions that varied between years, suggesting that our method is sensitive to changes in respiration drivers. We compared our estimates to MODIS GPP and nocturnal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) derived from eddy covariance towers as a proxy for ecosystem respiration. Averaged across the predictive region, mean predicted growing season soil respiration was 73% of MODIS GPP, while predicted soil respiration was generally within 20% of nocturnal NEE from eddy covariance towers. This study demonstrated that geospatial and remotely-sensed datasets can be used in a statistical modeling framework to estimate soil respiration at landscape scales.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

A framework for assessing the feasibility of native fish conservation translocations: Applications to threatened bull trout

There is an urgent need to consider more aggressive and direct interventions for the conservation of freshwater fishes that are threatened by invasive species, habitat loss, and climate change. Conservation introduction (moving a species outside its indigenous range to other areas where conditions are predicted to be more suitable) is one type of translocation strategy that fisheries managers can use to establish new conservation populations in areas of refugia. To date, however, there are few examples of successful conservation-based introductions. Many attempts fail to establish new populations—in part because environmental factors that might influence success are inadequately evaluated before the translocation is implemented. We developed a framework to assess the feasibility of rescuing threatened fish populations through translocation into historically unoccupied stream and lake habitats. The suitability of potential introduction sites was evaluated based on four major components: the recipient habitat, recipient community, donor population, and future threats. Specific questions were then developed to evaluate each major component. The final assessment was based on a scoring system that addressed each question by using criteria developed from characteristics representative of highly suitable habitats and populations. This framework was used to evaluate the proposed within-drainage translocation of three Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus populations in Glacier National Park, Montana. Our results indicated that within-drainage translocation is a feasible strategy for conserving locally adapted populations of Bull Trout through the creation of new areas of refugia in Glacier National Park. The framework provides a flexible platform that can help managers make informed decisions for moving threatened fishes into new areas of refugia for conservation and recovery programs.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

Using the Sonoran and Libyan Desert test sites to monitor the temporal stability of reflective solar bands for Landsat 7 enhanced thematic mapper plus and Terra moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer sensors

Remote sensing imagery is effective for monitoring environmental and climatic changes because of the extent of the global coverage and long time scale of the observations. Radiometric calibration of remote sensing sensors is essential for quantitative & qualitative science and applications. Pseudo-invariant ground targets have been extensively used to monitor the long-term radiometric calibration stability of remote sensing sensors. This paper focuses on the use of the Sonoran Desert site to monitor the radiometric stability of the Landsat 7 (L7) Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. The results are compared with the widely used Libya 4 Desert site in an attempt to evaluate the suitability of the Sonoran Desert site for sensor inter-comparison and calibration stability monitoring. Since the overpass times of ETM+ and MODIS differ by about 30 minutes, the impacts due to different view geometries or test site Bi-directional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) are also presented. In general, the long-term drifts in the visible bands are relatively large compared to the drift in the near-infrared bands of both sensors. The lifetime Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) reflectance trends from both sensors over 10 years are extremely stable, changing by no more than 0.1% per year (except ETM+ Band 1 and MODIS Band 3) over the two sites used for the study. The use of a semi-empirical BRDF model can reduce the impacts due to view geometries, thus enabling a better estimate of sensor temporal drifts.

Journal of Applied Remote Sensing↗

Phytoestrogens and mycotoxins in Iowa streams: An examination of underinvestigated compounds in agricultural basins

This study provides the first broad-scale investigation on the spatial and temporal occurrence of phytoestrogens and mycotoxins in streams in the United States. Fifteen stream sites across Iowa were sampled five times throughout the 2008 growing season to capture a range of climatic and crop-growth conditions. Basin size upstream from sampling sites ranged from 7 km 2 to >836,000 km 2 Atrazine (herbicide) also was measured in all samples as a frame-of-reference agriculturally derived contaminant. Target compounds were frequently detected in stream samples: atrazine (100%), formononetin (80%), equol (45%), deoxynivalenol (43%), daidzein (32%), biochanin A (23%), zearalenone (13%), and genistein (11%). The nearly ubiquitous detection of formononetin (isoflavone) suggests a widespread agricultural source, as one would expect with the intense row crop and livestock production present across Iowa. Conversely, the less spatially widespread detections of deoxynivalenol (mycotoxin) suggest a more variable source due to the required combination of proper host and proper temperature and moisture conditions necessary to promote Fusarium spp. infections. Although atrazine concentrations commonly exceeded 100 ng L -1 (42/75 measurements), only deoxynivalenol (6/56 measurements) had concentrations that occasionally exceeded this level. Temporal patterns in concentrations varied substantially between atrazine, formononetin, and deoxynivalenol, as one would expect for contaminants with different source inputs and processes of formation and degradation. The greatest phytoestrogen and mycotoxin concentrations were observed during spring snowmelt conditions. Phytoestrogens and mycotoxins were detected at all sampling sites regardless of basin size. The ecotoxicological effects from long-term, low-level exposures to phytoestrogens and mycotoxins or complex chemicals mixtures including these compounds that commonly take place in surface water are poorly understood and have yet to be systematically investigated in environmental studies.

Iowa↗

The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 1. Simulation characteristics with prescribed SSTs

In this two‐part paper, a description is provided of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This version, with roughly 100 km horizontal resolution and 33 levels in the vertical, contains an aerosol model that generates aerosol fields from emissions and a “light” chemistry mechanism designed to support the aerosol model but with prescribed ozone. In Part 1, the quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode—with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea‐ice distribution—is described and compared with previous GFDL models and with the CMIP5 archive of AMIP simulations. The model's Cess sensitivity (response in the top‐of‐atmosphere radiative flux to uniform warming of SSTs) and effective radiative forcing are also presented. In Part 2, the model formulation is described more fully and key sensitivities to aspects of the model formulation are discussed, along with the approach to model tuning.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems↗