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At least 1,297 records · Page 72Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Aqueous exposure to the progestin, levonorgestrel, alters anal fin development and reproductive behavior in the eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki)

Endogenous progestogens are important regulators of vertebrate reproduction. Synthetic progestins are components of human contraceptive and hormone replacement pharmaceuticals. Both progestogens and progestins enter the environment through a number of sources, and have been shown to cause profound effects on reproductive health in various aquatic vertebrates. Progestins are designed to bind human progesterone receptors, but they also have been shown to strongly activate androgen receptors in fish. Levonorgestrel (LNG) activates fish androgen receptors and induces development of male secondary sex characteristics in females of other species. Although behavior has been postulated to be a sensitive early indicator of exposure to certain environmental contaminants, no such research on the reproductive behavior of gestagen-exposed fish has been conducted to date. The goal of our study was to examine the exposure effects of a human contraceptive progestin, LNG, on the reproductive development and behavior of the viviparous eastern mosquitofish ( Gambusia holbrooki ). Internal fertilization is a requisite characteristic of viviparous species, and is enabled by an androgen driven elongation of the anal fin into the male gonopodium (i.e., phallus). In this study, we exposed adult mosquitofish to ethanol (EtOH control), 10 ng/L, and 100 ng/L LNG for 8 d using a static replacement exposure design. After 8 d, a subset of males and females from each treatment were examined for differences in the 4:6 anal fin ratio. In addition, paired social interaction trials were performed using individual control males and control females or females treated 10 ng/L or 100 ng/L LNG. Female mosquitofish exposed to LNG were masculinized as evidenced by the elongation of the anal fin rays, a feature normal to males and abnormal to females. LNG caused significant increases in the 4:6 anal fin ratios of female mosquitofish in both the 10 ng/L and 100 ng/L treatments, although these differences were not significant between the two treatments. LNG caused significant increases in the 4:6 anal fin ratio of males exposed to 100 ng/L, with no effects observed in the 10 ng/L treatment. In addition, the reproductive behavior of control males paired with female mosquitofish exposed to 100 ng/L LNG was also altered, for these males spent more time exhibiting no reproductive behavior, had decreased attending behavior, and a lower number of gonopodial thrusts compared to control males paired to control female mosquitofish. Given the rapid effects on both anal fin morphology and behavior observed in this study, the mosquitofish is an excellent sentinel species for the detection of exposure to LNG and likely other 19-nortestosterone derived contraceptive progestins in the environment.

General and Comparative Endocrinology↗
USGS2007

Rapid Method for Escherichia coli in the Cuyahoga River

This study is a continuation of a previous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project in cooperation with the National Park Service at Cuyahoga Valley National Park in Brecksville, Ohio. A rapid (1-hour) method for detecting Escherichia coli (E. coli) in water was tested and compared to the standard (24-hour) method for determining E. coli concentrations. Environmental data were collected to determine turbidity, rainfall, and streamflow at the time of sampling. In the previous study (2004-5), data collected were used to develop predictive models to determine recreational water quality in the river at two sites within the park. Data collected during this continued study (2006) were used to test these models. At Jaite, a centrally located site within the park, the model correctly predicted exceedances or nonexceedances of the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency maximum for recreational water quality in 80 percent of samples. At Old Portage, a site near the upstream boundary of the park, the model correctly predicted recreational water quality in 58 percent of samples. All of the data collected in 2004-6 will be used to develop more accurate models for use in future studies. Analysis and discussion of model results are scheduled to be included in an upcoming USGS Scientific Investigations Report.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Pesticides in small volume plasma samples: Method development and application to smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) from the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA

Nontarget organisms are exposed to pesticides following applications in agricultural and urban settings, potentially resulting in deleterious effects. Direct measurements of pesticides in biological tissues may aid in characterizing exposure, accumulation, and potential toxicity versus analyses in environmental media alone (e.g., water, soil, and air). Plasma represents a nonlethal sampling medium that can be used to assess recent exposures to contaminants. Herein, a method was developed to test the extraction of 210 pesticides and their transformation products in small volume plasma samples (100 μL). Plasma samples were protein precipitated with 0.5 % formic acid in acetonitrile added to the sample (ratio of 3.5:1). Pass-through solid phase extraction was used for sample matrix and lipid removal and samples were analyzed by liquid chromatography and gas chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. Recoveries of 70.0–129.8 % were achieved for 182 pesticides and degradates across the low (25 ng mL −1 ), medium (100 ng mL −1 ), and high (250 ng mL −1 ) spike levels. Method detection levels ranged 0.4–13.0 ng mL −1 . Following development, the method was applied to smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) plasma samples (n = 10) collected from adults in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Individual plasma samples resulted in four to seven analytes detected with summed concentrations ranging 16.4–95.0 ng mL −1 . Biological multiresidue pesticide methods help elucidate recent exposures of bioactive compounds to nontarget organisms.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2019

Hydrologic site assessment for passive treatment of groundwater nitrogen with permeable reactive barriers, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Wastewater disposal associated with rapid population growth and development on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, during the past several decades has resulted in widespread contamination of groundwater with nitrogen. As a result, water quality in many of the streams, lakes, and coastal embayments on Cape Cod is impaired by excess nitrogen. To reduce nitrogen loads to these impaired water bodies, watershed-based planning is currently [2019] underway following a regional strategy, the section 208 areawide water-quality management plan update for Cape Cod. In the updated plan, traditional (sewering) and alternative wastewater management options are under consideration for restoring water quality in impaired surface-water bodies. Permeable reactive barriers, which are reactive zones emplaced below the water table for passive treatment of groundwater contaminants, are one of the alternatives being considered by Cape Cod towns as a potentially cost-effective technology for the removal of nitrogen from groundwater. However, the effectiveness of permeable reactive barriers depends on local conditions, and site-specific hydrologic and water-quality data are needed to inform the decision to install a permeable reactive barrier in a given location. These data are not available in most locations on Cape Cod; consequently, site assessments are needed before selecting this treatment option. To address this need, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Geological Survey, and Cape Cod Commission formed a technical team in 2015 to develop and evaluate a hydrologic site-assessment approach for permeable reactive barrier installation. The approach developed by the technical team includes a preliminary regional assessment followed by a phased onsite investigation. The approach was intended to provide the hydrologic data needed to make informed decisions on site suitability and to support installation and monitoring should the site be deemed appropriate for a permeable reactive barrier. The factors that were evaluated to characterize local hydrologic conditions and inform site selection included groundwater flow directions and rates, depth to the water table, hydraulic conductivity and degree of heterogeneity of the aquifer, spatial distribution and concentration of nitrate and oxidation-reduction-sensitive constituents, thickness and depth of the treatment zone, distance to downgradient water bodies, and access for drilling and permeable reactive barrier installation. The approach was demonstrated on Cape Cod by conducting a preliminary assessment of 27 sites, from which 5 sites were selected for onsite investigations. Results indicated that the site-assessment approach was successful for screening sites and characterizing the geologic, hydrologic, and water-quality conditions at the sites selected for onsite investigations. Overall, the phased assessment evaluated in this study provided an efficient means of obtaining the hydrologic information needed to determine if a site was suitable for permeable reactive barrier installation on Cape Cod for the passive treatment of nitrogen in groundwater.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2024

Hydrologic investigations and a preliminary conceptual model of the groundwater system at North Penn Area 1 Superfund Site, Souderton, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted hydrogeologic investigations, reviewed existing data, and developed a preliminary conceptual model of the groundwater system as part of technical support of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) at the North Penn Area 1 Superfund Site (hereafter, the NP1 Site) located within the Borough of Souderton in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. Field work and monitoring took place during 2012–18. The area is underlain by sedimentary formations that form a fractured-rock aquifer used for drinking water and industrial supply. The EPA placed the Site on the National Priorities List in 1989, identifying tetrachloroethylene (PCE) and trichloroethylene (TCE) as contaminants of concern. During 2012–18, the USGS conducted field activities that included drilling an 82-foot (ft)-deep monitoring well (MG 2220) in 2016, reconstructing a 208-ft-deep former industrial production well (MG 668 [Granite Knitting Mill]), and collecting borehole geophysical and video logs and water levels from those and five additional wells, which ranged in depth from about 50 to 200 ft below land surface. Continuous water levels were collected during 2014–17, and a synoptic set of water levels were measured in April 2018 in the seven wells. The borehole geophysical logs (caliper, acoustic televiewer, natural gamma, single-point resistance, vertical flow, and fluid temperature and resistivity) and borehole video logs in the seven wells were evaluated to assess potential for lithologic correlation and to identify and describe water-bearing features, which included both low- and high-angle fractures and other openings oriented along dipping bedding planes, joints, or possible faults. Borehole geophysical logs collected by USGS in 1992 in a 300-ft-deep former production well near the Site were also evaluated. Few to no distinctive features were identified on geophysical logs (natural gamma and single-point resistance) that could be used for correlation, thus limiting this approach to determining local geologic structure. Extensive fracturing in the upper 62 ft of monitoring well MG 2220 indicates that the well was likely drilled through a zone of faulting, and other evidence of faulting is present in the area near the Site. Assessment of continuous water levels showed hydraulic connections among some wells as indicated by rising or falling water levels in response to changes in pumping rates at nearby wells. A map of water levels measured in April 2018 indicates potential for groundwater flow generally toward the stream to the south and southwest of the Site, but the limited water-level data are insufficient to describe vertical groundwater gradients or lateral gradients in any detail. Review of 1999–2022 volatile organic compound (VOC) monitoring data collected by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection for five monitoring wells indicates that the highest groundwater concentrations of PCE and TCE were found in samples from extraction well MG 2201 (S-1) downgradient from, and nearest to, the previously identified Site contaminant source area, and these concentrations fluctuated through time. PCE concentrations were higher than TCE concentrations in samples from all five monitoring wells and were much higher than TCE concentrations in samples from extraction well MG 2201 (S-1). Temporally variable recharge is a possible factor affecting observed fluctuations in PCE concentrations in groundwater samples from well extraction MG 2201 (S-1), as indicated by a general inverse relation between PCE concentrations and water levels in a nearby long-term observation well. The PCE concentration of 1,830 micrograms per liter (μg/L) in a May 2018 water sample from monitoring well MG 2220 was more than four times the PCE concentration of 444 μg/L in a December 2017 sample from the nearby extraction well MG 2201 (S-1), which is open to fewer fractures. Low concentrations of VOCs were measured in surface water at two stream sites downgradient from wells with the highest groundwater VOC concentrations at the Site, indicating that discharge of contaminated groundwater to the stream is likely. Development of a conceptual model of the groundwater system was constrained by limited data. In areas with no pumping, groundwater-flow directions generally are thought to be controlled by topography and geologic structure (bedding orientation) and likely to the south and southwest of the Site, with local flow directions affected by orientations of fractures, joints, and local faults. Additional investigations that could help improve the conceptual model of the groundwater system and help delineate the extent of groundwater contamination and its transport are discussed.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2023

Achieving success with RISE: A widely implementable, iterative, structured process for mastering interdisciplinary team science collaborations

Scientific experts from different disciplines often struggle to mesh their specialized perspectives into the shared mindset that is needed to address difficult and persistent environmental, ecological, and societal problems. Many traditional graduate programs provide excellent research and technical skill training. However, these programs often do not teach a systematic way to learn team skills, nor do they offer a protocol for identifying and tackling increasingly integrated interdisciplinary (among disciplines) and transdisciplinary (among researchers and stakeholders) questions. As a result, professionals trained in traditional graduate programs (e.g., current graduate students and employed practitioners) may not have all of the collaborative skills needed to advance solutions to difficult scientific problems. In the present article, we illustrate a tractable, widely implementable structured process called RISE that accelerates the development of these missing skills. The RISE process (Route to Identifying, learning, and practicing interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary team Skills to address difficult Environmental problems) can be used by diverse teams as a tool for research, professional interactions, or training. RISE helps professionals with different expertise learn from each other by repeatedly asking team-developed questions that are tested using an interactive quantitative tool (e.g., agent-based models, machine learning, case studies) applied to a shared problem framework and data set. Outputs from the quantitative tool are then discussed and interpreted as a team, considering all team members’ perspectives, disciplines, and expertise. After this synthesis, RISE is repeated with new questions that the team jointly identified in earlier data interpretation discussions. As a result, individual perspectives, originally informed by disciplinary training, are complemented by a shared understanding of team function and elevated interdisciplinary knowledge.

BioScience↗
USGS2013

Environmental clustering of lakes to evaluate performance of a macrophyte index of biotic integrity

Proper classification of sites is critical for the use of biological indices that can distinguish between natural and human-induced variation in biological response. The macrophyte-based index of biotic integrity was developed to assess the condition of Minnesota lakes in relation to anthropogenic stressors, but macrophyte community composition varies naturally across the state. The goal of the study was to identify environmental characteristics that naturally influence macrophyte index response and establish a preliminary lake classification scheme for biological assessment (bioassessment). Using a comprehensive set of environmental variables, we identified similar groups of lakes by clustering using flexible beta classification. Variance partitioning analysis of IBI response indicated that evaluating similar lake clusters could improve the ability of the macrophyte index to identify community change to anthropogenic stressors, although lake groups did not fully account for the natural variation in macrophyte composition. Diagnostic capabilities of the index could be improved when evaluating lakes with similar environmental characteristics, suggesting the index has potential for accurate bioassessment provided comparable groups of lakes are evaluated.

Minnesota↗
USGS2015

Simulation of the effects of different inflows on hydrologic conditions in Lake Houston with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, Houston, Texas, 2009–10

Lake Houston, an important water resource for the Houston, Texas, area, receives inflows from seven major tributaries that compose the San Jacinto River Basin upstream from the reservoir. The effects of different inflows from the watersheds drained by these tributaries on the residence time of water in Lake Houston and closely associated physical and chemical properties including lake elevation, salinity, and water temperature are not well known. Accordingly, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Houston, developed a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Houston as a tool for evaluating the effects of different inflows on residence time of water in the lake and associated physical and chemical properties. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), a grid-based, surface-water modeling package for simulating three-dimensional circulation, mass transport, sediments, and biogeochemical processes, was used to develop the model of Lake Houston. The Lake Houston EFDC model was developed and calibrated by using 2009 data and verified by using 2010 data. Three statistics (mean error, root mean square error, and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) were used to evaluate how well the Lake Houston EFDC model simulated lake elevation, salinity, and water temperature. The residence time of water in reservoirs is associated with various physical and chemical properties (including lake elevation, salinity, and water temperature). Simulated and measured lake-elevation values were compared at USGS reservoir station 08072000 Lake Houston near Sheldon, Tex. The accuracy of simulated salinity and water temperature values was assessed by using the salinity (computed from measured specific conductance) and water temperature at two USGS monitoring stations: 295826095082200 Lake Houston south Union Pacific Railroad Bridge near Houston, Tex., and 295554095093401 Lake Houston at mouth of Jack’s Ditch near Houston, Tex. Specific conductance and water temperature were measured at as many as four different depths at each of the two monitoring stations during 2009 and then used for assessing the accuracy of simulated values of salinity and water temperature during 2010. The performance evaluation statistics indicate that the model performed satisfactorily. The calibrated model was used to simulate two possible inflow scenarios to evaluate the changes in the residence time of water in Lake Houston. The two scenarios tested were an increased inflow of approximately 300 cubic feet per second for 1 month (May 2010) from two watersheds: the West Fork San Jacinto River and Luce Bayou. These scenarios were chosen to mimic the effects of possible small releases or diversions of water from outside the San Jacinto River Basin into the basin (or directly into the lake) on the residence time of water in Lake Houston. During the time of increased inflow for the two scenarios tested, maximum residence time decreased slightly from approximately 106 to 97 days.

Texas↗
USGS2012

Prioritizing pesticide compounds for analytical methods development

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a periodic need to re-evaluate pesticide compounds in terms of priorities for inclusion in monitoring and studies and, thus, must also assess the current analytical capabilities for pesticide detection. To meet this need, a strategy has been developed to prioritize pesticides and degradates for analytical methods development. Screening procedures were developed to separately prioritize pesticide compounds in water and sediment. The procedures evaluate pesticide compounds in existing USGS analytical methods for water and sediment and compounds for which recent agricultural-use information was available. Measured occurrence (detection frequency and concentrations) in water and sediment, predicted concentrations in water and predicted likelihood of occurrence in sediment, potential toxicity to aquatic life or humans, and priorities of other agencies or organizations, regulatory or otherwise, were considered. Several existing strategies for prioritizing chemicals for various purposes were reviewed, including those that identify and prioritize persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic compounds, and those that determine candidates for future regulation of drinking-water contaminants. The systematic procedures developed and used in this study rely on concepts common to many previously established strategies. The evaluation of pesticide compounds resulted in the classification of compounds into three groups: Tier 1 for high priority compounds, Tier 2 for moderate priority compounds, and Tier 3 for low priority compounds. For water, a total of 247 pesticide compounds were classified as Tier 1 and, thus, are high priority for inclusion in analytical methods for monitoring and studies. Of these, about three-quarters are included in some USGS analytical method; however, many of these compounds are included on research methods that are expensive and for which there are few data on environmental samples. The remaining quarter of Tier 1 compounds are high priority as new analytes. The objective for analytical methods development is to design an integrated analytical strategy that includes as many of the Tier 1 pesticide compounds as possible in a relatively few, cost-effective methods. More than 60 percent of the Tier 1 compounds are high priority because they are anticipated to be present at concentrations approaching levels that could be of concern to human health or aquatic life in surface water or groundwater. An additional 17 percent of Tier 1 compounds were frequently detected in monitoring studies, but either were not measured at levels potentially relevant to humans or aquatic organisms, or do not have benchmarks available with which to compare concentrations. The remaining 21 percent are pesticide degradates that were included because their parent pesticides were in Tier 1. Tier 1 pesticide compounds for water span all major pesticide use groups and a diverse range of chemical classes, with herbicides and their degradates composing half of compounds. Many of the high priority pesticide compounds also are in several national regulatory programs for water, including those that are regulated in drinking water by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under the Safe Drinking Water Act and those that are on the latest Contaminant Candidate List. For sediment, a total of 175 pesticide compounds were classified as Tier 1 and, thus, are high priority for inclusion in analytical methods available for monitoring and studies. More than 60 percent of these compounds are included in some USGS analytical method; however, some are spread across several research methods that are expensive to perform, and monitoring data are not extensive for many compounds. The remaining Tier 1 compounds for sediment are high priority as new analytes. The objective for analytical methods development for sediment is to enhance an existing analytical method that currently includes nearly half of the pesticide compounds in Tier 1 by adding as many additional Tier 1 compounds as are analytically compatible. About 35 percent of the Tier 1 compounds for sediment are high priority on the basis of measured occurrence. A total of 74 compounds, or 42 percent, are high priority on the basis of predicted likelihood of occurrence according to physical-chemical properties, and either have potential toxicity to aquatic life, high pesticide useage, or both. The remaining 22 percent of Tier 1 pesticide compounds were either degradates of Tier 1 parent compounds or included for other reasons. As with water, the Tier 1 pesticide compounds for sediment are distributed across the major pesticide-use groups; insecticides and their degradates are the largest fraction, making up 45 percent of Tier 1. In contrast to water, organochlorines, at 17 percent, are the largest chemical class for Tier 1 in sediment, which is to be expected because there is continued widespread detection in sediments of persistent organochlorine pesticides and their degradates at concentrations high enough for potential effects on aquatic life. Compared to water, there are fewer available benchmarks with which to compare contaminant concentrations in sediment, but a total of 19 Tier 1 compounds have at least one sediment benchmark or screening value for aquatic organisms. Of the 175 compounds in Tier 1, 77 percent have high aquatic-life toxicity, as defined for this process. This evaluation of pesticides and degradates resulted in two lists of compounds that are priorities for USGS analytical methods development, one for water and one for sediment. These lists will be used as the basis for redesigning and enhancing USGS analytical capabilities for pesticides in order to capture as many high-priority pesticide compounds as possible using an economically feasible approach.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2023

Banking on strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital in post-conflict Colombia

In post-conflict Colombia, the government has prioritized resettlement of displaced people through development of strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital. In this paper, we considered government proposals for expanding payment for ecosystem services (PES) and sustainable silvopastoral systems, and private-sector investment in habitat banking. We coupled the Integrated Economic-Environmental Model (IEEM) with spatially explicit land use and land cover change and ecosystem services models to assess the potential impacts of these programs through the lens of wealth and sustainable economic development. This innovative workflow integrates dynamic endogenous feedbacks between natural capital, ecosystem services and the economic system, and can be applied to other country contexts. Results show that PES and habitat banking programs are strong investment propositions (Net Present Value of US$4.4 and $4.9 billion, respectively), but only when moving beyond conventional economic analysis to include non-market ecosystem services. Where a portfolio investment approach is taken and PES is implemented with sustainable silvopastoral systems, investment returns would reach US$7.1 billion. This paper provides a detailed evaluation of the benefits of investing in rural livelihoods and enhancing Colombia’s natural capital base, with empirical evidence to inform the spatial targeting of policies to maximize economic, environmental and social outcomes.

Environment, Development, and Sustainability↗
USGS1999

Characterizing backcountry camping impacts in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

This investigates resource impacts on backcounty campsites in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. Study objectives were to enhance our understanding of camping impacts and to improve campsite impact assessment procedures by means of multivariate techniques. Three-hundred and eight campsites at designated backcountry campgrounds, and 69 additional unofficial campsites were assessed. Factor analysis of 195 established campsites on eight impact indicator variables revealed three dimensions of campsite impact: area disturbance, soil and groundcover damage, and tree-related damage. Four distinctive backcountry campsite types were identified, three of which were derived from cluster analyses of factor scores. These four backcountry campsite types characterize the intensity and areal extent of resource impacts, and they vary in locational and environmental attributes. At an aggregate level, different campsite types contributed unequally to the cumulative level of impact. The dimensional structure and typology developed in this study demonstrates that campsite impacts can be viewed and examined holistically with the use of multivariate methods. Implications for assessment procedures, management and further research are discussed.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2020

Impacts of periodic dredging on macroinvertebrate prey availability for benthic foraging fishes in central San Francisco Bay, California

Background Because of its importance for species covered under Federal Fishery Management Plans (FMPs), the San Francisco Bay (SFB) estuary has been designated as Essential Fish Habitat (EFH) under the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA; 16 United States Code §18559b). Within this estuary, benthic macroinvertebrate communities provide important prey resources for many economically significant fish species that rely on EFH. Periodic maintenance dredging can impact benthic communities; however, there is a lack of scientific information specific to SFB regarding dredging effects on macroinvertebrates in fish foraging areas. In addition, rates of benthic community recolonization and recovery following dredging and subsequent effects on foraging fish are unknown. For this reason, it is difficult for regulatory and resource agencies to determine the impacts of maintenance dredging. Thus, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the consortium of agencies (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], U.S. Army Corp of Engineers [USACE], San Francisco Regional Water Quality Control Board [SFRWQCB], and San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission [BCDC]) that make up the San Francisco Bay Long Term Management Strategy for Dredging (LTMS) identified a study of dredging impacts on SFB fish foraging habitat as one of their highest priorities in their 2011 Programmatic EFH Agreement (U.S. Army Corp of Engineers and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2011). The LTMS agencies identified the region of interest as shallow (<13 feet [<4 meters (m)] mean lower low water [MLLW]), soft-bottom (silt/clay soil texture) areas in the Central Bay of SFB that were periodically dredged (every 1–3 years). Fish species of interest were compiled by NMFS and included those managed by the Pacific Groundfish, Pacific Salmon, and Coastal Pelagic FMPs (pursuant to the MSA) as well as those listed under the California State or Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA; 16 U.S.C. §1531–1544) as threatened or endangered. Target species included leopard shark ( Triakis semifasciata ), big skate ( Raja binoculata ), English sole ( Parophrys vetulus ), starry flounder ( Platichthys stellatus) , brown rockfish ( Sebastes auriculatus ), green sturgeon ( Acipenser medirostris ; threatened species under Federal ESA), northern anchovy ( Engraulis mordax ), longfin smelt ( Spirinchus thaleichthys, threatened under California ESA), and Pacific sardine ( Sardinops sagax ). In addition, Dungeness crab ( Cancer magister ), California halibut ( Paralichthys californicus ), and white sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ) also were included because they are substantial contributors to the California State fishery. To address LTMS priorities, U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, San Francisco Bay Estuary Field Station (hereafter USGS) conducted a multi-phased project including an initial literature review, study design, pilot study, and implementation of a full study. The overarching goal was to assess the effects of periodic dredge operations (every 1–3 years) on benthic habitat for foraging fish in the Central Bay, with emphasis on the foraging requirements of target fish species and analyses of benthic macroinvertebrates in dredged areas compared to adjacent undredged reference areas. The USGS partnered with University of California, Davis, fisheries expert James Hobbs to synthesize existing knowledge of fish foraging ecology and review benthic infauna community composition in SFB with a focus on the Central Bay. The literature review (Phase I; De La Cruz and others, 2016) addressed key questions identified by the LTMS on benthic foraging fish in the study area, including the following: (1) What are target fish eating? (2) What are the seasonal differences in prey items and macroinvertebrate assemblages? (3) What are the annual differences in prey items and macroinvertebrate assemblages? (4) What are the predominant macroinvertebrate functional groups from the perspective of fish foraging? Phase II consisted of creating a framework for a functional assessment of maintenance dredging effects on foraging fish and drafting a full study design (De La Cruz and others, 2017), which was then tested in the Phase III pilot study. The Phase IV full study incorporated lessons learned from the pilot study. Here we focus on the results of the full study and implications for benthic foraging fishes.

California↗
USGS2020

Forecasting water demand across a rapidly urbanizing region

Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have independently examined the impacts of urban planning and climate change on water demand, but little attention has been given to their combined impact. Here we forecast urban water demand using a Geographically Weighted Regression model informed by socio-economic, environmental and landscape pattern metrics. The purpose of our study is to evaluate how future scenarios of population densities and climate warming will jointly affect water demand across two rapidly growing U.S. states (North Carolina and South Carolina). Our forecasts indicate that regional water demand by 2065 will increase by 37%–383% relative to the baseline in 2010, across all scenarios of change. Our results show future water demand will increase under rising temperatures, but could be ameliorated by policies that promote higher density development and urban infill. These water-efficient land use policies show a 5% regional reduction in water demand and up to 25% reduction locally for counties with the highest expected population growth by 2065. For rural counties experiencing depopulation, the land use policies we considered are insufficient to significantly reduce water demand. For expanding communities seeking to increase their adaptive capacity to changing socio-environmental conditions, our framework can assist in developing sustainable solutions.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗
USGS2011

An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant

Mead's milkweed Asclepias meadii , a long-lived perennial herb of tallgrass prairie and glade communities of the central United States, is a species designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Challenges to its successful management include the facts that much about its life history is unknown, its age at reproductive maturity is very advanced, certain life stages are practically unobservable, its productivity is responsive to unpredictable environmental events, and most of the known populations occur on private lands unprotected by any legal conservation instrument. One critical source of biological uncertainty is the degree to which fire promotes growth and reproductive response in the plant. To aid in its management, we developed a prototype population-level state-dependent decision-making framework that explicitly accounts for this uncertainty and for uncertainties related to stochastic environmental effects and vital rates. To parameterize the decision model, we used estimates found in the literature, and we analyzed data from a long-term monitoring program where fates of individual plants were observed through time. We demonstrate that different optimal courses of action are followed according to how one believes that fire influences reproductive response, and we show that the action taken for certain population states is informative for resolving uncertainty about competing beliefs regarding the effect of fire. We advocate the use of a model-predictive approach for the management of rare populations, particularly when management uncertainty is profound. Over time, an adaptive management approach should reduce uncertainty and improve management performance as predictions of management outcome generated under competing models are continually informed and updated by monitoring data.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2003

Relative contributions of sampling effort, measuring, and weighing to precision of larval sea lamprey biomass estimates

We developed two weight-length models from 231 populations of larval sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) collected from tributaries of the Great Lakes: Lake Ontario (21), Lake Erie (6), Lake Huron (67), Lake Michigan (76), and Lake Superior (61). Both models were mixed models, which used population as a random effect and additional environmental factors as fixed effects. We resampled weights and lengths 1,000 times from data collected in each of 14 other populations not used to develop the models, obtaining a weight and length distribution from reach resampling. To test model performance, we applied the two weight-length models to the resampled length distributions and calculated the predicted mean weights. We also calculated the observed mean weight for each resampling and for each of the original 14 data sets. When the average of predicted means was compared to means from the original data in each stream, inclusion of environmental factors did not consistently improve the performance of the weight-length model. We estimated the variance associated with measures of abundance and mean weight for each of the 14 selected populations and determined that a conservative estimate of the proportional contribution to variance associated with estimating abundance accounted for 32% to 95% of the variance (mean = 66%). Variability in the biomass estimate appears more affected by variability in estimating abundance than in converting length to weight. Hence, efforts to improve the precision of biomass estimates would be aided most by reducing the variability associated with estimating abundance.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2013

Porphyry copper assessment of Europe, exclusive of the Fennoscandian Shield: Chapter K in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborated with European geologists to assess resources in porphyry copper deposits in Europe, exclusive of Scandinavia (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland) and Russia. Porphyry copper deposits in Europe are Paleozoic and Late Cretaceous to Miocene in age. A number of the 31 known Phanerozoic deposits contain more than 1 million metric tons of contained copper, including the Majdanpek deposit, Serbia; Assarel, Bulgaria; Skouries, Greece; and Rosia Poeni, Romania. Five geographic areas were delineated as permissive tracts for post-Paleozoic porphyry copper deposits. Two additional tracts were delineated to show the extent of permissive igneous rocks associated with porphyry copper mineralization related to the Paleozoic Caledonian and Variscan orogenies. The tracts are based on mapped and inferred subsurface distributions of igneous rocks of specific age ranges that define areas where the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits within 1 kilometer of the Earth&rsquo;s surface is possible. These tracts range in area from about 4,000 to 93,000 square kilometers. Although maps at a variety of different scales were used in the assessment, the final tract boundaries are intended for use at a scale of 1:1,000,000. The post-Paleozoic deposits in Europe all formed in conjunction with the tectonic evolution of southern Europe as the former Tethyan Ocean closed by convergence of the African and Arabian Plates with Europe, accompanied by accretion of microcontinents to the southern Eurasian Plate and development and demise of magmatic arcs and ocean basins. Many of the deposits formed in extensional or post-collisional settings; these tectonic environments are increasingly being recognized as environments where porphyry copper deposits occur. Probabilistic estimates of undiscovered porphyry copper deposits were made for four Phanerozoic permissive tracts; the other tracts are discussed qualitatively. Assessment participants estimated numbers of undiscovered deposits at different levels of confidence for the four tracts. These estimates were then combined with grade and tonnage models using Monte Carlo simulation to generate probabilistic estimates of amounts of in-place undiscovered resources. Additional resources that may be present in extensions of known deposits were not evaluated. Assessment results are reported in tables and graphs as expected amounts of metal and rock in undiscovered deposits at different quantile levels, as well as the arithmetic mean for each commodity for each tract. This assessment estimated a mean of 14 undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within the four permissive tracts for which estimates were made. On the basis of global grade and tonnage models, mean (arithmetic) estimated resources that could be associated with undiscovered deposits are about 46 million metric tons of copper and about 2,600 metric tons of gold, as well as byproduct molybdenum and silver. Reliable reported identified resources for the 27 deposits in the assessed areas total about 44 million metric tons of copper and about 2,300 metric tons of gold. Exploration for gold-rich porphyry systems is ongoing in some parts of historical copper mining districts in central Europe and in northwesternmost (European) Turkey. Political and social conflicts, environmental concerns associated with historical mining, and the global economic situation have had negative effects on exploration, development, and mining in Europe for many years. The assessment includes an overview with summary tables. Detailed descriptions of each tract, including the rationales for delineation and assessment, are given in appendixes A&ndash;G. Appendix H describes a geographic information system (GIS) that includes tract boundaries and point locations of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Wind energy in the United States and materials required for the land-based wind turbine industry from 2010 through 2030

The generation of electricity in the United States from wind-powered turbines is increasing. An understanding of the sources and abundance of raw materials required by the wind turbine industry and the many uses for these materials is necessary to assess the effect of this industry's growth on future demand for selected raw materials relative to the historical demand for these materials. The U.S. Geological Survey developed estimates of future requirements for raw (and some recycled) materials based on the assumption that wind energy will supply 20 percent of the electricity consumed in the United States by 2030. Economic, environmental, political, and technological considerations and trends reported for 2009 were used as a baseline. Estimates for the quantity of materials in typical "current generation" and "next generation" wind turbines were developed. In addition, estimates for the annual and total material requirements were developed based on the growth necessary for wind energy when converted in a wind powerplant to generate 20 percent of the U.S. supply of electricity by 2030. The results of the study suggest that achieving the market goal of 20 percent by 2030 would require an average annual consumption of about 6.8 million metric tons of concrete, 1.5 million metric tons of steel, 310,000 metric tons of cast iron, 40,000 metric tons of copper, and 380 metric tons of the rare-earth element neodymium. With the exception of neodymium, these material requirements represent less than 3 percent of the U.S. apparent consumption for 2008. Recycled material could supply about 3 percent of the total steel required for wind turbine production from 2010 through 2030, 4 percent of the aluminum required, and 3 percent of the copper required. The data suggest that, with the possible exception of rare-earth elements, there should not be a shortage of the principal materials required for electricity generation from wind energy. There may, however, be selective manufacturing shortages if the total demand for raw materials from all markets is greater than the available supply of these materials or the capacity of industry to manufacture components. Changing economic conditions could also affect the development schedule of anticipated capacity.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Integrating principles and tools of decision science into value-driven watershed planning for compensatory mitigation

Several environmental policies strive to restore impaired ecosystems and could benefit from a consistent and transparent process — co-developed with key stakeholders — to prioritize impaired ecosystems for restoration activities. The Clean Water Act, for example, establishes reallocation mechanisms to transfer ecosystem services from sites of disturbance to compensation sites to offset aquatic resource functions that are unavoidably lost through land development. However, planning for the prioritization of compensatory mitigation areas is often hampered by decision-making processes that fall into a myopic decision frame because they are not co-produced with stakeholders. In this study, we partnered with domain experts from the North Carolina Division of Mitigation Services (NCDMS) to co-develop a real-world decision framework to prioritize catchments by potential for the development of mitigation projects following principles of a structured decision-making process and knowledge co-production. Following an iterative decision analysis cycle, domain experts revised foundational components of the decision framework and progressively added complexity and realism as they gained additional insights or more information became available. Through the course of facilitated in-person and remote interactions, the co-development of a decision framework produced three main ‘breakthroughs’ from the perspective of the stakeholder group: a) recognition of the problem as a multi-objective decision driven by several values in addition to biogeophysical goals (e.g., functional uplift; restoring or enhancing lost functionality of ecosystems), b) that the decision comprises a linked and sequential planning-to-implementation process, and c) future risk associated with land-use and climate change must be considered. We also present an interactive tool for ‘on-the-fly’ assessment of alternatives and tradeoff analysis, allowing domain experts to quickly test, react to, and revise prioritization strategies. The decision framework described in this study is not limited to the prioritization of compensatory mitigation activities across North Carolina, but rather serves as a framework to prioritize a wide range of restoration, conservation, and resource allocation activities in similar environmental contexts across the nation.

Ecological Applications↗