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At least 1,297 records · Page 72Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Activity patterns of bats during the fall and spring along ridgelines in the central Appalachians

Many central Appalachian ridges offer high wind potential, making them attractive to future wind-energy development. Understanding seasonal and hourly activity patterns of migratory bat species may help to reduce fatalities at wind-energy facilities and provide guidance for the development of best management practices for bats. To examine hourly migratory bat activity patterns in the fall and spring in Virginia in an exploratory fashion with a suite of general temporal, environmental, and weather variables, we acoustically monitored bat activity on five ridgelines and side slopes from early September through mid-November 2015 and 2016 and from early March through late April 2016 and 2017. On ridges, bat activity decreased through the autumn sample period, but was more variable through the spring sample period. In autumn, migratory bat activity had largely ceased by mid-November. Activity patterns were species specific in both autumn and spring sample periods. Generally, migratory bat activity was negatively associated with hourly wind speeds but positively associated with ambient temperatures. These data provide further evidence that operational mitigation strategies at wind-energy facilities could help protect migratory bat species in the Appalachians; substantially slowing or locking wind turbine blade spin during periods of low wind speeds, often below where electricity is generated, and warm ambient temperatures may minimize mortality during periods of high bat activity.

Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2017

Sensitivity analysis of a coupled hydrodynamic-vegetation model using the effectively subsampled quadratures method

Coastal hydrodynamics can be greatly affected by the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. The effect of vegetation has been incorporated into the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System. The vegetation implementation includes the plant-induced three-dimensional drag, in-canopy wave-induced streaming, and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the presence of vegetation. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of the flow and wave dynamics to vegetation parameters using Sobol' indices and a least squares polynomial approach referred to as Effective Quadratures method. This method reduces the number of simulations needed for evaluating Sobol' indices and provides a robust, practical, and efficient approach for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of Sobol' indices shows that kinetic energy, turbulent kinetic energy, and water level changes are affected by plant density, height, and to a certain degree, diameter. Wave dissipation is mostly dependent on the variation in plant density. Performing sensitivity analyses for the vegetation module in COAWST provides guidance for future observational and modeling work to optimize efforts and reduce exploration of parameter space.

Geoscientific Model Development↗
USGS1981

The role of nutrient reserves in mallard reproduction

Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) populations breeding in temperate North America obtain a significant part of the energy and lipid requirements of reproduction at sites occupied prior to arrival on the breeding grounds. Protein for egg formation, however, is obtained principally from the diet during the nesting period. Both sexes arrive heavy and fat in North Dakota but experience substantial weight loss and lipid depletion during the nesting cycle. Weight loss is most pronounced among females and averages 25% from prelaying to late incubation. Body weights of both sexes are positively correlated with carcass lipid content. The paired male draws upon lipids early in the nesting season when an activity center is being established and defended and when females are preparing to nest. The female's lipid reserves are utilized primarily during laying and early incubation. The significance of lipid reserves diminishes as the nesting season progresses, and females do not acquire substantial lipid stores prior to renesting when the initial clutch is destroyed. The magnitude of lipid reserves carried in female carcasses is positively correlated with clutch size from mid-April to early June. Protein transfer for egg formation from flight and leg muscle and body organs can account for only a small part of the protein requirement for the clutch. By utilizing lipid reserves to meet energy requirements, the female can acquire sufficient protein from the diet to produce a large initial clutch even when foods are relatively scarce, whereas the renesting female must rely entirely upon food resources available at the breeding site for its nutrient and energy requirements.

The Auk↗
USGS1976

Submarine geothermal resources

Approximately 20% of the earth's heat loss (or 2 ?? 1012 cal/s) is released through 1% of the earth's surface area and takes the form of hydrothermal discharge from young (Pleistocene or younger) rocks adjacent to active seafloor-spreading centers and submarine volcanic areas. This amount is roughly equivalent to man's present gross energy consumption rate. A sub-seafloor geothermal reservoir, to be exploitable under future economic conditions, will have to be hot, porous, permeable, large, shallow, and near an energy-deficient, populated land mass. Furthermore, the energy must be recoverable using technology achievable at a competitive cost and numerous environmental, legal and institutional problems will have to be overcome. The highest-temperature reservoirs should be found adjacent to the zones of the seafloor extension or volcanism that are subject to high sedimentation rates. The relatively impermeable sediments reduce hydrothermal-discharge flow rates, forcing the heat to be either conducted away or released by high-temperature fluids, both of which lead to reservoir temperatures that can exceed 300??C. There is evidence that the oceanic crust is quite permeable and porous and that it was amenable to deep (3-5 km) penetration by seawater at least some time in the early stages of its evolution. Most of the heat escapes far from land, but there are notable exceptions. For example, in parts of the Gulf of California, thermal gradients in the bottom sediments exceed 1??C/m. In the coastal areas of the Gulf of California, where electricity and fresh water are at a premium, this potential resource lies in shallow water (< 200 m) and within sight of land. Other interesting areas include the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Andaman Sea along the margins of the western Pacific, the Tyrrhenian Sea west of Italy, and the southern California borderland and west flank of the Juan de Fuca Ridge off the west coast of the United States. Many questions remain to be answered about the physical and other characteristics of these systems before they can be considered a viable resource. Until several of the most promising areas are carefully defined and drilled, the problem will remain unresolved. ?? 1976.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS1974

Oil shale development and its environmental considerations

The petroleum shortage recently experienced by many nations throughout the world has created an intense interest in obtaining new and supplemental energy sources. In the United States, this interest has been centered on oil shale. Any major action by the federal government having significant environmental effects requires compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). Since most oil shale is found on federal lands, and since its development involves significant environmental impacts, leasing oil shale lands to private interests must be in compliance with NEPA. For oil shale, program planning began at approximately the same time that NEPA was signed into law. By structuring the program to permit a resource and technological inventory by industry and the federal agencies, the Department of the Interior was able simultaneously to conduct the environmental assessments required by the act. This required: 1. Clearly defined program objections; 2. An organization which could integrate public policy with diverse scientific disciplines and environmental concerns; and 3. Flexible decisionmaking to adjust to policy changes as well as to evolving interpretations on EPA as clarified by court decisions. This paper outlines the program, the organization structure that was created for this specific task, and the environmental concerns which were investigated. The success of the program has been demonstrated by meeting the requirements of NEPA, without court challenge, and by industry's acceptance of a leasing program that included the most stringent environmental protection provisions ever required. The need for energy development has spurred the acceptance of the program. However, by its awareness and willingness to meet the environmental challenges of the future, industry has shown a reasonable understanding of its commitments. The pros and cons of development were publicly considered in hearings and analyzed in the final environmental statement. This action aided greatly in preventing legal challenges. The prototype oil shale program is now under way and this new energy source, developed with strict environmental safeguards, may soon be available to our nation.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1983

HIGH-TEMPERATURE GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES IN HYDROTHERMAL CONVECTION SYSTEMS IN THE UNITED STATES.

The calculation of high-temperature geothermal resources ( greater than 150 degree C) in the United States has been done by estimating the temperature, area, and thickness of each identified system. These data, along with a general model for recoverability of geothermal energy and a calculation that takes account of the conversion of thermal energy to electricity, yielded an estimate of 23,000 MW//e for 30 years. The undiscovered component was estimated based on multipliers of the identified resource as either 72,000 or 127,000 MW//e for 30 years depending on the model chosen for the distribution of undiscovered energy as a function of temperature.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1981

Economics and coal resource appraisal: strippable coal in the Illinois Basin ( USA)

Coal-resource appraisals generally describe the location and general characteristics of coal beds. Estimates are made of the average overburden depth (depth of the coal bed below the surface), bed thickness, and perhaps certain chemical properties of the coal [1]. Although such resource compilations represent an important initial step, neither they nor current estimates provide sufficient information to determine the costs of alternative options for National energy policy. Because coal is expected to provide an increasing part of future overall U.S. energy supply, it is crucial for long term planning that coalresource appraisals convey sufficient information regarding the degree of economic resource scarcity (escalation of unit costs for mining remaining deposits as the best deposits in an area are mined out) expected as coal consumption increases. However, assumptions embodied in most large-scale models of coal supply [13; 20] imply that the coal reserves that exist can be commercially produced as needed. As demonstrated by the embargo of 1973-1974 and more recent difficulties in obtaining crude oil, even a slight temporary commodity shortfall will result in significant economic losses when the commodity supplies a large proportion of the total energy used by an economy. For the United States, crude oil resource estimates did not give warning of a decline in domestic petroleum product. In this paper we argue that coal-resource estimates, as they are now made, will not give warning of future supply difficulties. A method for incorporating an economic dimension into appraisals of strippable coal resources is presented and is applied to a major U.S. coal-producing region, the Illinois part of the Illinois basin. Illinois accounts for nearly 70% of the demonstrated strippable coal reserve base of the Illinois basin [12]. In particular, a long-run incremental cost function (that is unit costs vs. cumulative reserves extracted) is estimated for strippable coal in Illinois. The estimated cost function exhibits an initial range over which costs increase at a constant rate-followed by a range where costs increase very rapidly and the function becomes quite inelastic. This long-run incremental cost function is significant for two reasons. Comparison of the demonstrated reserve base for strippable coal (14.8 billion tons) with cumulative production (since 1920 of 1.1 billion tons) might suggest that future depletion will not be significant when, in fact, the cost function presented here indicates otherwise. Because the only states having more reserves of strippable coal than Illinois are Montana and Wyoming [18], these results have implications for national coal-resource appraisal. Secondly, most models used to study the effects of alternative public policies in coal markets are static in nature [15; 16] and cannot consider the effects of increasing costs. Furthermore, models which are multi-period in nature [11; 13] appear to have little empirical basis for their assumptions regarding the escalation of production costs resulting from depletion. The plan of the paper is as follows. First a description of the analytical approach for constructing the long-run incremental cost-reserve function is discussed. Following this, the descriptions of the Illinois basin and the basic physical data are presented. In the concluding section, the main results are presented and their implications are explored

Southern Economic Journal↗
USGS1984

Seismicity and eruptive activity at Fuego Volcano, Guatemala: February 1975 -January 1977

We examine seismic and eruptive activity at Fuego Volcano (14??29???N, 90?? 53???W), a 3800-m-high stratovolcano located in the active volcanic arc of Guatemala. Eruptions at Fuego are typically short-lived vulcanian eruptions producing ash falls and ash flows of high-alumina basalt. From February 1975 to December 1976, five weak ash eruptions occurred, accompanied by small earthquake swarms. Between 0 and 140 (average ??? 10) A-type or high-frequency seismic events per day with M > 0.5 were recorded during this period. Estimated thermal energies for each eruption are greater by a factor of 106 than cumulative seismic energies, a larger ratio than that reported for other volcanoes. Over 4000 A-type events were recorded January 3-7, 1977 (cumulative seismic energy ??? 109 joules), yet no eruption occurred. Five 2-hour-long pulses of intense seismicity separated by 6-hour intervals of quiescence accounted for the majority of events. Maximum likelihood estimates of b-values range from 0.7 ?? 0.2 to 2.1 ?? 0.4 with systematically lower values corresponding to the five intense pulses. The low values suggest higher stress conditions. During the 1977 swarm, a tiltmeter located 6 km southeast of Fuego recorded a 14 ?? 3 microradian tilt event (down to SW). This value is too large to represent a simple change in the elastic strain field due to the earthquake swarm. We speculate that the earthquake swarm and tilt are indicative of subsurface magma movement. ?? 1984.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS1986

Structural deformation and sedimentation in an active Caldera, Rabaul, Papua New Guinea

Recent seismic and tectonic activity in Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea, suggests that magma is accumulating at a shallow depth beneath this partially submerged structure and that a new volcano may be developing. Changes in onshore elevation since 1971 (as much as 2 m on south Matupit Island) indicate that rapid and large-scale uplifts have occurred on the seafloor near the center of the caldera. The frequency of seismic events within the caldera has also increased during this period. Earthquake locations define an elliptical ring surrounding the center of this uplift within the caldera. A marine geophysical survey in 1982 by the U.S. Geological Survey's R/V "S.P. Lee" in Rabaul Caldera shows the development of a bulge in the seafloor near the center of the caldera. High-resolution seismic reflection profiles show that this bulge consists of two domal uplifts bounded and separated by two major north-south-trending fault zones. Deformed sediments overlie these zones; a prominent slump flanks the area of the bulge. Five major acoustic units were identified in the seismic reflection profiles: an acoustic basement and four sedimentary units consisting of irregularly layered, cross-layered, contorted, and well-layered sequences. The acoustic basement is probably composed of crystalline volcanic rocks, and the layered acoustic units are probably sediments, primarily ash deposited in different environments. The cross-layered, irregularly layered, and contorted units appear to have been deposited in a dynamic environment subjected to strong currents, seismicity, and/or mass wasting, while the well-layered units were deposited in a low-energy environment. Locally, well-layered sequences interfinger with the other sedimentary units, indicating a transitional environment that alternated between high-energy and low-energy depositional processes. A submarine channel cuts most of the acoustic units and appears to be the conduit for sediment transport out of the caldera; it occupies an older buried channel north of the caldera that is presently being exhumed. In the south, active erosion of well-layered sediments is taking place. What are believed to be several young volcanic cones also disrupt the depositional layers. We conclude that the bulge in the seafloor and the associated fault zones are a result of emplacement of magma at a shallow depth. Contorted sediment and slumps adjacent to the bulge are probably the result of uplift and seismic activity. The pattern of seismicity appears to reflect increased magma pressure at depth beneath the caldera floor. This activity may eventually lead to an eruption. ?? 1986.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS1990

Thermodynamic properties for bunsenite, NiO, magnetite, Fe3O4, and hematite, Fe2O3, with comments on selected oxygen buffer reactions

Smoothed values of the heat capacities and derived thermodynamic functions are given for bunsenite, magnetite, and hematite for the temperature interval 298.15 to 1800 K. The Gibbs free energy for the reaction Ni + 0.5O2 = NiO is given by the equation ??rG0T = -238.39 + 0.1146T - 3.72 ?? 10-3T ln T and is valid from 298.15 K to 1700 K. The Gibbs free energy (in kJ) of the reaction 2 magnetite + 3 quartz = 3 fayalite + O2 may be calculated from the equation ??rG0T = 474.155 - 0.16120 T in kJ and between 800 and 1400 K. The Gibbs free energy (in kJ) of the reaction 6 hematite = 4 magnetite + O2 may be calculated from the following equations: ??rG0T = 496.215 - 0.27114T, ??rG0T = 514.690 - 0.29753T, ??rG0T = 501.348 - 0.2854T. -from Author

American Mineralogist↗
USGS1991

Revised values for the thermodynamic properties of boehmite, AlO(OH) , and related species and phases in the system Al-H-O

Heat capacity measurements are reported for a well-characterized boehmite that differ significantly from results reported earlier by Shomate and Cook (1946) for a monohydrate of alumina. It is suggested that the earlier measurements were made on a sample that was a mixture of phases and that use of that heat-capacity and derived thermodynamic data be discontinued. The entropy of boehmite derived in this study is 37.19 ?? 0.10 J/(mol.K) at 298.15 K. Based on our value for the entropy and accepting the recommended Gibbs free energy for Al(OH)-4, the Gibbs free energy and enthalpy of formation of boehmite are calculated to be -918.4 ?? 2.1 and -996.4 ?? 2.2 kJ/mol, respectively, from solubility data for boehmite. The Gibbs energy for boehmite is unchanged from that given by Hemingway et al. (1978). -from Authors

American Mineralogist↗
USGS1994

Seismological aspects of the 1989-1990 eruptions at redoubt volcano, Alaska: the SSAM perspective

SSAM is a simple and inexpensive tool for continuous monitoring of average seismic amplitudes within selected frequency bands in near real-time on a PC-based data acquisition system. During the 1989-1990 eruption sequence at Redoubt Volcano, the potential of SSAM to aid in rapid identification of precursory Long-Period (LP) event swarms was realized, and since this time SSAM has been incorporated in routine monitoring efforts of the Alaska Volcano Observatory. In particular, an eruption that occurred on April 6 was successfully forecast primarily on the basis of recognizing the precursory LP activity on SSAM. Of twenty-two significant eruptions that occurred between December 14 and April 21, eleven had precursory swarms longer than one hour in duration that could be detected on SSAM. For individual swarms, the patterns of relative spectral amplitudes are distinct at each station and remain largely stationary through time, thus indicating that one source may have been preferentially and repeatedly activated throughout the swarm. Typically, a single spectral band dominates the signal at each seismic station: for the vigorous one-day swarm that preceded the first eruption on December 14, signals were sharply peaked in the 1.9-2.7 Hz band at the closest station, located 4 km from the vent, but were dominated by 1.3-1.9 Hz energy at three more distant stations located 7.5-22 km from the vent. The tendency for the signals from different swarms recorded at the same station to be peaked in the same frequency band suggests that all of the sources are characterized by a predominant length scale. Signals from the precursory LP swarms became weaker as the eruption sequence progressed, and swarms that occurred in March and April could only be detected at seismographs on the volcanic edifice. Onset times of precursory LP swarms prior to eruptions ranged from a few hours to about one week, but after the initial vent-clearing phase that ended December 19 these intervals tended to become progressively shorter for successive swarms. These trends in the relative onset times and intensities of successive precursory LP swarms are consistent with an overall depressurization of the magmatic system through time. In general, each of the swarms had an emergent onset, but the intensities did not always increase steadily until the eruptions. Instead, as the time of an eruption approached the intensity usually increased more rapidly before peaking and then declining prior to the eruption; for three of the swarms, two distinct peaks in intensity were apparent. The time intervals between final peaks in swarm intensity and ensuing eruptions ranged from about 2 hours to almost 2 days, but the peaks always occurred closer to the eruptions than to the swarm onsets. Both the onset of LP swarm activity and a decline in intensity prior to an eruption may represent critical points in the process of pressurization that drives the flow of fluids and gas in a sealed magmatic system. A notable exception to this pattern is the eruption of March 9 which lacked a detectable precursory LP swarm, but was followed by an unusually long period of strong LP seismicity that may have been stimulated by a depressurization of the magmatic system resulting from dome failure. On both December 14 and January 2, the spectra of early syn-eruptive signals have peaked signatures much like those of the spectra of precursory LP activity from shortly before the eruptions; these similarities may indicate that the source of precursory seismicity continued to be active during at least the early part of each eruption. In syn-eruptive signals from March and April recorded at stations on the volcanic edifice, the dominant spectral energy progressively shifts with time during the eruption to lower frequencies; at least part of the energy in these signals may have been generated by the debris flows associated with dome failures. ?? 1994.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS1994

Roughness coefficients for high-gradient channels in New York State

Manning's roughness coefficients (n values) were computed for a range of flows at six streams in New York State (USA) that have high energy gradients (greater than 0.002) and large median bed-particle sizes (between 0.14 and 0.36 meters). The coefficients, which ranged from 0.034 to 0.061 for bankfull flows, were computed from discharges, channel geometry, and water-surface profiles measured at each of the sites. An inverse relation between the n values and flow depth (or hydraulic radius) was evident at five sites. The roughness coefficient decreases rapidly with increasing depth and approaches an asymptotic value as bankfull flow is approached. At individual sites, the slope (water-surface slope and energy gradient) generally increases with increasing flow depth and is inversely related to the n value. Among the sites, however, the roughness coefficient and slope show a direct relation. The near-bankfull n values on channels with slopes between 0.008 and 0.014 were generally in the range of 0.05 to 0.06, whereas those on channels with lower slopes, between 0.004 and 0.005, were in the 0.03-to-0.04 range. Streambank vegetation has a measurable effect on the computed n values at two of the sites. Dense vegetation on one side of the medium-flow channel on Beaver Kill at Cooks Falls interrupts the decreasing trend in the roughness coefficient as the water level rises and produces higher-than-expected n values up to the point of vegetation submergence. The effects of streambank vegetation at Tremper Kill near Andes change seasonally; the n-value increases by as much as 0.012 from nongrowing to growing seasons. The effect of the vegetation decreases with increasing flow depth as a result of the decrease in energy losses as the vegetation becomes submerged and bends with the flow. Roughness coefficients, which were computed around 1950 for three of the study sites, are reasonably close to those computed in this study.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2000

Reevaluation of tsunami formation by debris avalanche at Augustine Volcano, Alaska

Debris avalanches entering the sea at Augustine Volcano, Alaska have been proposed as a mechanism for generating tsunamis. Historical accounts of the 1883 eruption of the volcano describe 6- to 9-meter-high waves that struck the coastline at English Bay (Nanwalek), Alaska about 80 kilometers east of Augustine Island. These accounts are often cited as proof that volcanigenic tsunamis from Augustine Volcano are significant hazards to the coastal zone of lower Cook Inlet. This claim is disputed because deposits of unequivocal tsunami origin are not evident at more than 50 sites along the lower Cook Inlet coastline where they might be preserved. Shallow water (<25 m) around Augustine Island, in the run-out zone for debris avalanches, limits the size of an avalanche-caused wave. If the two most recent debris avalanches, Burr Point (A.D. 1883) and West Island (<500 yr. B.P.) were traveling at velocities in the range of 50 to 100 meters per second, the kinetic energy of the avalanches at the point of impact with the ocean would have been between 1014 and 1015 joules. Although some of this energy would be dissipated through boundary interactions and momentum transfer between the avalanche and the sea, the initial wave should have possessed sufficient kinetic energy to do geomorphic work (erosion, sediment transport, formation of wave-cut features) on the coastline of lowwer Cook Inlet. Because widespread evidence of the effects of large waves cannot be found, it appears that the debris avalanches could not have been traveling very fast when they entered the sea, or they happened during low tide and displaced only small volumes of water. In light of these results, the hazard from volcanigenic tsunamis from Augustine Volcano appears minor, unless a very large debris avalanche occurs at high tide.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗
USGS2003

The history and development of FETAX (ASTM standard guide, E-1439 on conducting the frog embryo teratogenesis Assay-Xenopus)

The energy crisis of the 1970's and 1980's prompted the search for alternative sources of fuel. With development of alternate sources of energy, concerns for biological resources potentially adversely impacted by these alternative technologies also heightened. For example, few biological tests were available at the time to study toxic effects of effluents on surface waters likely to serve as receiving streams for energy-production facilities; hence, we began to use Xenopus laevis embryos as test organisms to examine potential toxic effects associated with these effluents upon entering aquatic systems. As studies focused on potential adverse effects on aquatic systems continued, a test procedure was developed that led to the initial standardization of FETAX. Other .than a limited number of aquatic toxicity tests that used fathead minnows and cold-water fishes such as rainbow trout, X. laevis represented the only other aquatic vertebrate test system readily available to evaluate complex effluents. With numerous laboratories collaborating, the test with X. laevis was refined, improved, and developed as ASTM E-1439, Standard Guide for the Conducting Frog Embryo Teratogenesis Assay-Xenopus (FETAX). Collabrative work in the 1990s yielded procedural enhancements, for example, development of standard test solutions and exposure methods to handle volatile organics and hydrophobic compounds. As part of the ASTM process, a collaborative interlaboratory study was performed to determine the repeatability and reliability of FETAX. Parallel to these efforts, methods were also developed to test sediments and soils, and in situ test methods were developed to address "lab-to-field extrapolation errors" that could influence the method's use in ecological risk assessments. Additionally, a metabolic activation system composed of rat liver microsomes was developed which made FETAX more relevant to mammalian studies.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2004

Geothermal resources of California sedimentary basins

The 2004 Department of Energy (DOE) Strategic Plan for geothermal energy calls for expanding the geothermal resource base of the United States to 40,000 MW of electric power generating potential. This will require advances in technologies for exploiting unconventional geothermal resources, including Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and geopressured geothermal. An investigation of thermal conditions in California sedimentary basins through new temperature and heat flow measurements reveals significant geothermal potential in some areas. In many of the basins, the combined cooling effects of recent tectonic and sedimentary processes result in relatively low (<60 mW/m2) heat flow and geothermal gradients. For example, temperatures in the upper 3 km of San Joaquin, Sacramento and Ventura basins are typically less than 125??C and do not reach 200??c by 5 km. By contrast, in the Cuyama, Santa Maria and western Los Angeles basins, heat flow exceeds 80 mW/m2 and temperatures near or above 200??C occur at 4 to 5 km depth, which represents thermal conditions equivalent to or hotter than those encountered at the Soultz EGS geothermal site in Europe. Although the extractable geothermal energy contained in these basins is not large relative to the major California producing geothermal fields at The Geysers or Salton Sea, the collocation in the Los Angeles basin of a substantial petroleum extraction infrastructure and a major metropolitan area may make it attractive for eventual geothermal development as EGS technology matures.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2005

Outstanding issues for new geothermal resource assessments

A critical question for the future energy policy of the United States is the extent to which geothermal resources can contribute to an ever-increasing demand for electricity. Electric power production from geothermal sources exceeds that from wind and solar combined, yet the installed capacity falls far short of the geothermal resource base characterized in past assessments, even though the estimated size of the resource in six assessments completed in the past 35 years varies by thousands of Megawatts-electrical (MWe). The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working closely with the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Research Program and other geothermal organizations on a three-year effort to produce an updated assessment of available geothermal resources. The new assessment will introduce significant changes in the models for geothermal energy recovery factors, estimates of reservoir permeability, limits to temperatures and depths for electric power production, and include the potential impact of evolving Enhanced (or Engineered) Geothermal Systems (EGS) technology.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2012

Statistical analyses to support guidelines for marine avian sampling. Final report

Interest in development of offshore renewable energy facilities has led to a need for high-quality, statistically robust information on marine wildlife distributions. A practical approach is described to estimate the amount of sampling effort required to have sufficient statistical power to identify species-specific “hotspots” and “coldspots” of marine bird abundance and occurrence in an offshore environment divided into discrete spatial units (e.g., lease blocks), where “hotspots” and “coldspots” are defined relative to a reference (e.g., regional) mean abundance and/or occurrence probability for each species of interest. For example, a location with average abundance or occurrence that is three times larger the mean (3x effect size) could be defined as a “hotspot,” and a location that is three times smaller than the mean (1/3x effect size) as a “coldspot.” The choice of the effect size used to define hot and coldspots will generally depend on a combination of ecological and regulatory considerations. A method is also developed for testing the statistical significance of possible hotspots and coldspots. Both methods are illustrated with historical seabird survey data from the USGS Avian Compendium Database. Our approach consists of five main components: 1. A review of the primary scientific literature on statistical modeling of animal group size and avian count data to develop a candidate set of statistical distributions that have been used or may be useful to model seabird counts. 2. Statistical power curves for one-sample, one-tailed Monte Carlo significance tests of differences of observed small-sample means from a specified reference distribution. These curves show the power to detect "hotspots" or "coldspots" of occurrence and abundance at a range of effect sizes, given assumptions which we discuss. 3. A model selection procedure, based on maximum likelihood fits of models in the candidate set, to determine an appropriate statistical distribution to describe counts of a given species in a particular region and season. 4. Using a large database of historical at-sea seabird survey data, we applied this technique to identify appropriate statistical distributions for modeling a variety of species, allowing the distribution to vary by season. For each species and season, we used the selected distribution to calculate and map retrospective statistical power to detect hotspots and coldspots, and map pvalues from Monte Carlo significance tests of hotspots and coldspots, in discrete lease blocks designated by the U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). 5. Because our definition of hotspots and coldspots does not explicitly include variability over time, we examine the relationship between the temporal scale of sampling and the proportion of variance captured in time series of key environmental correlates of marine bird abundance, as well as available marine bird abundance time series, and use these analyses to develop recommendations for the temporal distribution of sampling to adequately represent both shortterm and long-term variability. We conclude by presenting a schematic “decision tree” showing how this power analysis approach would fit in a general framework for avian survey design, and discuss implications of model assumptions and results. We discuss avenues for future development of this work, and recommendations for practical implementation in the context of siting and wildlife assessment for offshore renewable energy development projects.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗