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At least 1,279 records · Page 71Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Proximate influences on female dispersal in white-tailed deer

Ultimate causes of animal dispersal have been hypothesized to benefit the dispersing individual because dispersal reduces competition for local resources, potential for inbreeding, and competition for breeding partners. However, proximate cues influence important features of dispersal behavior, including when dispersal occurs, how long it lasts, and direction, straightness, and distance of the dispersal path. Therefore, proximate cues that affect dispersal influence ecological processes (e.g., population dynamics, disease transmission, gene flow). We captured and radio-marked 277 juvenile female white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), of which 27 dispersed, to evaluate dispersal behavior and to determine proximate cues that may influence dispersal behavior. Female dispersal largely occurred at 1 year of age and coincided with the fawning season. Dispersal paths varied but generally were non-linear and prolonged. Physical landscape features (i.e., roadways, rivers, residential areas) influenced dispersal path direction and where dispersal terminated. Additionally, forays outside of the natal range that did not result in dispersal occurred among 52% of global positioning system (GPS)-collared deer ( n = 25) during the dispersal period. Our results suggest intra-specific social interactions and physical landscape features influence dispersal behavior in female deer. Female dispersal behavior, particularly the lack of directionality, the semi-permeable nature of physical barriers, and the frequency of forays outside of the natal range, should be considered in regard to population management and controlling the spread of disease.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2022

Coupling process-based and empirical models to assess management options to meet conservation goals

Conservation lands face a mounting threat of ecosystem transformation and the loss of biodiversity from the invasion of fire-prone perennial and annual grasses. Managers must make difficult decisions to find efficient ways to expend limited resources to manage large and complex landscapes amidst substantial uncertainty regarding effective treatment strategies, climates, and invader-induced novel processes. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model coupled with a fire behavior model to study impacts to native biodiversity and fire regimes in a national park invaded by a perennial grass. We evaluated resources required to meet management objectives, and how to spatially allocate available resources efficiently and effectively. Management strategies and ecological scenarios strongly influenced the ability to minimize potential impacts; the inclusion of a new management strategy, aerial precision spot spraying targeting low cover levels in remote regions, was needed to supplement current treatments that can only target large, dense patches. Adding this new treatment method may be enough to conserve the desert ecosystem from small scale transformation through invasive competition and from broad functional transformations through invasive-induced fire regime changes. Spot spraying may also be highly beneficial if wetter monsoonal conditions create faster growth rates, decreasing the ability to contain the invasion even with unlimited management resources. Given current annual budgets for control, and the new treatment option, invasion control and preservation of native biodiversity may be possible regardless of spatial prioritization. Coupled empirical and process-based models efficiently simulated the effects of management activities, quantifying potential management costs and ecological impacts, while considering a wide range of possible future uncertainties associated with climate, spread rates, and wildfires lacking historical precedent. These techniques could be applied to other situations to evaluate the feasibility of conservation goals and to determine actions that would be most efficient and effective in meeting those goals.

Arizona↗
USGS2015

Space use and habitat selection by resident and transient coyotes ( Canis latrans )

Little information exists on coyote ( Canis latrans ) space use and habitat selection in the southeastern United States and most studies conducted in the Southeast have been carried out within small study areas (e.g., ≤1,000 km 2 ). Therefore, studying the placement, size, and habitat composition of coyote home ranges over broad geographic areas could provide relevant insights regarding how coyote populations adjust to regionally varying ecological conditions. Despite an increasing number of studies of coyote ecology, few studies have assessed the role of transiency as a life-history strategy among coyotes. During 2009–2011, we used GPS radio-telemetry to study coyote space use and habitat selection on the Albemarle Peninsula of northeastern North Carolina. We quantified space use and 2 nd - and 3 rd -order habitat selection for resident and transient coyotes to describe space use patterns in a predominantly agricultural landscape. The upper limit of coyote home-range size was approximately 47 km 2 and coyotes exhibiting shifting patterns of space use of areas >65 km 2 were transients. Transients exhibited localized space use patterns for short durations prior to establishing home ranges, which we defined as “biding” areas. Resident and transient coyotes demonstrated similar habitat selection, notably selection of agricultural over forested habitats. However, transients exhibited stronger selection for roads than resident coyotes. Although transient coyotes are less likely to contribute reproductively to their population, transiency may be an important life history trait that facilitates metapopulation dynamics through dispersal and the eventual replacement of breeding residents lost to mortality.

North Carolina↗
USGS2001

Forest fragmentation and bird community dynamics: Inference at regional scales

With increasing fragmentation of natural areas and a dramatic reduction of forest cover in several parts of the world, quantifying the impact of such changes on species richness and community dynamics has been a subject of much concern. Here, we tested whether in more fragmented landscapes there was a lower number of area-sensitive species and higher local extinction and turnover rates, which could explain higher temporal variability in species richness. To investigate such potential landscape effects at a regional scale, we merged two independent, large-scale monitoring efforts: the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Land Use and Land Cover Classification data from the U.S. Geological Survey. We used methods that accounted for heterogeneity in the probability of detecting species to estimate species richness and temporal changes in the bird communities for BBS routes in three mid-Atlantic U.S. states. Forest breeding bird species were grouped prior to the analyses into area-sensitive and non-area-sensitive species according to previous studies. We tested predictions relating measures of forest structure at one point in time (1974) to species richness at that time and to parameters of forest bird community change over the following 22-yr-period (1975–1996). We used the mean size of forest patches to characterize landscape structure, as high correlations among landscape variables did not allow us to disentangle the relative roles of habitat fragmentation per se and habitat loss. As predicted, together with lower species richness for area-sensitive species on routes surrounded by landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size, we found higher mean year-to-year rates of local extinction. Moreover, the mean year-to-year rates of local turnover (proportion of locally new species) for area-sensitive species were also higher in landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size. These associations were not observed for the non-area-sensitive species group. These results suggest that landscape structure may influence forest bird communities at regional scales through its effects on the total number of species but also on the temporal rates of change in community composition. Evidence for higher rates of local extinction and turnover in more fragmented landscapes suggests that bird communities function as metapopulations at a regional scale, and points out the importance of colonizations and recolonizations from surrounding landscapes to local community dynamics. Further, our results illustrate that the methods used to estimate the community parameters can be a powerful statistical tool in addressing questions relative to the dynamics of communities.

Ecology↗
USGS2024

Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels

Ecological disturbance can affect carbon storage and stability and is a key consideration for managing lands to preserve or increase ecosystem carbon to ameliorate the global greenhouse gas problem. Dryland soils are massive carbon reservoirs that are increasingly impacted by species invasions and altered fire regimes, including the exotic-grass-fire cycle in the extensive sagebrush steppe of North America. Direct measurement of total carbon in 1174 samples from landscapes of this region that differed in invasion and wildfire history revealed that their impacts depleted soil carbon by 42–49%, primarily in deep horizons, which could amount to 17.1–20.0 Tg carbon lost across the ~400,000 ha affected annually. Disturbance effects on soil carbon stocks were not synergistic, suggesting that soil carbon was lowered to a floor—i.e. a resistant base-level—beneath which further loss was unlikely. Restoration and maintenance of resilient dryland shrublands/rangelands could stabilize soil carbon at magnitudes relevant to the global carbon cycle.

Nature Communications, Earth & Environment↗
USGS2004

Fort Collins Science Center: Ecosystem Dynamics

Many challenging natural resource management issues require consideration of a web of interactions among ecosystem components. The spatial and temporal complexity of these ecosystem problems demands an interdisciplinary approach integrating biotic and abiotic processes. The goals of the Ecosystem Dynamics Branch are to provide sound science to aid federal resource managers and use long-term, place-focused research and monitoring on federal lands to advance ecosystem science. Current studies fall into five general areas. Herbivore-Ecosystem Interactions examines the efficacy of multiple controls on selected herbivore populations and cascading effects through predator-herbivore-plant-soil linkages. Riparian Ecology is concerned with interactions among streamflow, fluvial geomorphology, and riparian vegetation. Integrated Fire Science focuses on the effects of fire on plant and animal communities at multiple scales, and on the interactions between post-fire plant, runoff, and erosion processes. Reference Ecosystems comprises long-term, place-based studies of ecosystem biogeochemistry. Finally, Integrated Assessments is investigating how to synthesize multiple ecosystem stressors and responses over complex landscapes in ways that are useful for management and planning.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS1993

Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues involving regional extrapolations and parameterizations of dynamic land processes within simulation models.

Pecora 12 Symposium↗
USGS2002

Rocky Mountain futures: An ecological perspective

The Rocky Mountain West is largely arid and steep, with ecological scars from past human use visible for hundreds of years. Just how damaging were the past 150 years of activity? How do current rates of disturbance compare with past mining, grazing, and water diversion activities? In the face of constant change, what constitutes a "natural" ecosystem? And can a high quality of life be achieved for both human and natural communities in this region. Rocky Mountain Futures presents a comprehensive and wide-ranging examination of the ecological consequences of past, current, and future human activities in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States and Canada. The book brings together 32 leading ecologists, geographers, and other scientists and researchers to present an objective assessment of the cumulative effects of human activity on the region's ecological health and to consider changes wrought by past human use. This combined view of past and present reveals where Rocky Mountain ecosystems are heading, and the authors project what the future holds based upon current economic and social trends and the patterns that emerge from them. The book: examines the biogeographic and paleoenvironmental setting and historical climate that have shaped Rocky Mountain ecosystems traces the direct human influences on landscapes and ecosystems over the past 150 years explores the cumulative effects of past, present, and projected future human activities on tundra, subalpine and montane forests, valleys, grasslands, and waters offers case studies that illustrate specific examples of human influence and current efforts to restore the environment Case studies focus on northern New Mexico; Summit County, Colorado; Flathead Valley, Montana; and Alberta, Canada. Among the contributors are Craig D. Allen, N. Thompson Hobbs, Linda L. Joyce, Robert E. Keane, David Schindler, Timothy R. Seastedt, David Theobald, Diana Tomback, William Travis, Cathy Whitlock, and Jack Stanford. The United Nations has proclaimed 2002 as the International Year of Mountains to increase international awareness of the global importance of mountain ecosystems. The case-based multidisciplinary approach of this book constitutes an important new model for understanding the implications of land-use practices and economic activity on mountains, and will serve a vital role in improving decisionmaking both in the Rocky Mountains and in other parts of the world that face similar challenges.

Book↗
USGS2024

Quantifying the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in landscape-based models of stream fish distributions

Lotic fish species distributions are frequently predicted using remotely sensed habitat variables that characterize the adjacent landscape and serve as proxies for instream habitat. Recent advancements in statistical methodology, however, allow for leveraging fish assemblage data when predicting distributions. This is important because assemblage composition likely provides better information about instream habitat compared to landscape-derived metrics and therefore may improve predictions. To better understand the value of using multi-species fish data in species distribution modeling, we fit two conditional random fields (CRF) models to quantify the relative importance of fish assemblage co-occurrence, landscape-derived habitat variables, and interactions between these two predictor groups (i.e., effects of co-occurrence could be context-dependent) at over 1200 stream catchments in Pennsylvania, USA. We first compared predictive performance of CRF models against traditionally used single-species logistic regressions (generalized linear models; GLMs) and found that inclusion of fish assemblage data often improved predictive performance. The multi-species CRF models performed significantly better at predicting occurrence for 63% of species with an average percent increase in AUC of 25% compared to GLMs. Furthermore, the CRF identified species co-occurrences as more informative, and thus relatively more important, at predicting occurrence than the other effect types. The CRF also suggested that allowing these biotic effects to be context-dependent was important for predicting occurrence of many species. These findings illustrate the value of fish assemblage data for landscape-scale species distribution modeling and leveraging this information can improve predictions and inferences to help inform the management and conservation of freshwater fishes.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2019

Urbanization reduces genetic connectivity in bobcats (Lynx rufus) at both intra- and interpopulation spatial scales

Urbanization is a major factor driving habitat fragmentation and connectivity loss in wildlife. However, the impacts of urbanization on connectivity can vary among species and even populations due to differences in local landscape characteristics, and our ability to detect these relationships may depend on the spatial scale at which they are measured. Bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) are relatively sensitive to urbanization and the status of bobcat populations is an important indicator of connectivity in urban coastal southern California. We genotyped 271 bobcats at 13,520 SNP loci to conduct a replicated landscape resistance analysis in five genetically distinct populations. We tested urban and natural factors potentially influencing individual connectivity in each population separately, as well as study–wide. Overall, landscape genomic effects were most frequently detected at the study–wide spatial scale, with urban land cover (measured as impervious surface) having negative effects and topographic roughness having positive effects on gene flow. The negative effect of urban land cover on connectivity was also evident when populations were analyzed separately despite varying substantially in spatial area and the proportion of urban development, confirming a pervasive impact of urbanization largely independent of spatial scale. The effect of urban development was strongest in one population where stream habitat had been lost to development, suggesting that riparian corridors may help mitigate reduced connectivity in urbanizing areas. Our results demonstrate the importance of replicating landscape genetic analyses across populations and considering how landscape genetic effects may vary with spatial scale and local landscape structure.

California↗
USGS2004

Agricultural ponds support amphibian populations

In some agricultural regions, natural wetlands are scarce, and constructed agricultural ponds may represent important alternative breeding habitats for amphibians. Properly managed, these agricultural ponds may effectively increase the total amount of breeding habitat and help to sustain populations. We studied small, constructed agricultural ponds in southeastern Minnesota to assess their value as amphibian breeding sites. Our study examined habitat factors associated with amphibian reproduction at two spatial scales: the pond and the landscape surrounding the pond. We found that small agricultural ponds in southeastern Minnesota provided breeding habitat for at least 10 species of amphibians. Species richness and multispecies reproductive success were more closely associated with characteristics of the pond (water quality, vegetation, and predators) compared with characteristics of the surrounding landscape, but individual species were associated with both pond and landscape variables. Ponds surrounded by row crops had similar species richness and reproductive success compared with natural wetlands and ponds surrounded by nongrazed pasture. Ponds used for watering livestock had elevated concentrations of phosphorus, higher turbidity, and a trend toward reduced amphibian reproductive success. Species richness was highest in small ponds, ponds with lower total nitrogen concentrations, tiger salamanders ( Ambystoma tigrinum ) present, and lacking fish. Multispecies reproductive success was best in ponds with lower total nitrogen concentrations, less emergent vegetation, and lacking fish. Habitat factors associated with higher reproductive success varied among individual species. We conclude that small, constructed farm ponds, properly managed, may help sustain amphibian populations in landscapes where natural wetland habitat is rare. We recommend management actions such as limiting livestock access to the pond to improve water quality, reducing nitrogen input, and avoiding the introduction of fish.

Minnesota↗
USGS2005

Landscape characteristics influence pond occupancy by frogs after accounting for detectability

Many investigators have hypothesized that landscape attributes such as the amount and proximity of habitat are important for amphibian spatial patterns. This has produced a number of studies focusing on the effects of landscape characteristics on amphibian patterns of occurrence in patches or ponds, most of which conclude that the landscape is important. We identified two concerns associated with these studies: one deals with their applicability to other landscape types, as most have been conducted in agricultural landscapes; the other highlights the need to account for the probability of detection. We tested the hypothesis that landscape characteristics influence spatial patterns of amphibian occurrence at ponds after accounting for the probability of detection in little-studied peatland landscapes undergoing peat mining. We also illustrated the costs of not accounting for the probability of detection by comparing our results to conventional logistic regression analyses. Results indicate that frog occurrence increased with the percent cover of ponds within 100, 250, and 1000 m, as well as the amount of forest cover within 1000 m. However, forest cover at 250 m had a negative influence on frog presence at ponds. Not accounting for the probability of detection resulted in underestimating the influence of most variables on frog occurrence, whereas a few were overestimated. Regardless, we show that conventional logistic regression can lead to different conclusions than analyses accounting for detectability. Our study is consistent with the hypothesis that landscape characteristics are important in determining the spatial patterns of frog occurrence at ponds. We strongly recommend estimating the probability of detection in field surveys, as this will increase the quality and conservation potential of models derived from such data.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2015

A conceptual model for site-level ecology of the giant gartersnake ( Thamnophis gigas ) in the Sacramento Valley, California

Giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) comprise a species of semi-aquatic snakes precinctive to marshes in the Central Valley of California (Hansen and Brode, 1980; Rossman and others, 1996). Because more than 90 percent of their historical wetland habitat has been converted to other uses (Frayer and others, 1989; Garone, 2007), giant gartersnakes have been listed as threatened by the State of California (California Department of Fish and Game Commission , 1971) and the United States (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1993). Giant gartersnakes currently occur in a highly modified landscape, with most extant populations occurring in the rice - growing regions of the Sacramento Valley, especially near areas that historically were tule marsh habitat (Halstead and others, 2010, 2014). In ricelands and managed marshes, many operational decisions likely affect the health and viability of giant gartersnake populations. Land-use decisions, including the management of water, aquatic vegetation, terrestrial vegetation, and co-occurring species, have the potential to affect giant gartersnakes. Little is known, however, about the effects of these types of decisions on the viability of giant gartersnake populations. Bayesian network models are a useful tool to help guide decisions with uncertain outcomes. These models require the articulation of what experts think they know about a system, and facilitate learning about the hypothesized relations (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Bayesian networks further provide a clear visual display of the model that facilitates understanding among various stakeholders (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Empirical data and expert judgment can be combined, as continuous or categorical variables, to update knowledge about the system (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Importantly, Bayesian network models allow inference from causes to consequences, but also from consequences to causes, so that data can inform the states of nodes (values of different random variables) in either direction (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Because they can incorporate both decision nodes that represent management actions and utility nodes that quantify the costs and benefits of outcomes, Bayesian networks are ideally suited to risk analysis and adaptive management (Nyberg and others, 2006; Howes and others, 2010). Thus, Bayesian network models are useful in situations where empirical data are not available, such as questions concerning the responses of giant gartersnakes to management.

California↗
USGS2023

Nonlinear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands: The value of generalized additive models for quantifying rates of change

In the face of accelerating climate change and rising sea levels, quantifying surface elevation change dynamics in coastal wetlands can help to develop a more complete understanding of the implications of sea-level rise on coastal wetland stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach has been widely used to quantify and characterize surface elevation change dynamics in coastal marshes and mangrove forests. Whereas past studies that utilized the SET-MH approach have most often quantified rates of surface elevation change using simple linear regression analyses, several recent studies have shown that elevation patterns can include a diverse combination of linear and non-linear patterns. Generalized additive models (GAMs) are an extension of generalized linear models (GLMs) that have previously been used to analyze a variety of complex ecological processes such as cyclical changes in water quality, species distributions, long-term patterns in wetland area change, and palaeoecological time series. Here, we use long-term SET data to demonstrate the value of generalized additive models for analyzing non-linear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands. Additionally, we illustrate how the GAM approach can be used to effectively quantify rates of elevation change at both landscape- and local site-level scales.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2015

Wintering ecology of sympatric subspecies of Sandhill Crane: Correlations between body size, site fidelity, and movement patterns

Body size is known to correlate with many aspects of life history in birds, and this knowledge can be used to manage and conserve bird species. However, few studies have compared the wintering ecology of sympatric subspecies that vary significantly in body size. We used radiotelemetry to examine the relationship between body size and site fidelity, movements, and home range in 2 subspecies of Sandhill Crane (Grus canadensis) wintering in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta of California, USA. Both subspecies showed high interannual return rates to the Delta study area, but Greater Sandhill Cranes (G. c. tabida) showed stronger within-winter fidelity to landscapes in our study region and to roost complexes within landscapes than did Lesser Sandhill Cranes (G. c. canadensis). Foraging flights from roost sites were shorter for G. c. tabida than for G. c. canadensis (1.9 ± 0.01 km vs. 4.5 ± 0.01 km, respectively) and, consequently, the mean size of 95% fixed-kernel winter home ranges was an order of magnitude smaller for G. c. tabida than for G. c. canadensis (1.9 ± 0.4 km2 vs. 21.9 ± 1.9 km2, respectively). Strong site fidelity indicates that conservation planning to manage for adequate food resources around traditional roost sites can be effective for meeting the habitat needs of these cranes, but the scale of conservation efforts should differ by subspecies. Analysis of movement patterns suggests that conservation planners and managers should consider all habitats within 5 km of a known G. c. tabida roost and within 10 km of a G. c. canadensis roost when planning for habitat management, mitigation, acquisition, and easements.

The Condor↗
USGS2001

Quality of life on the Colorado Plateau: a report to the respondents in southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico

During the fall of 1998, scientists from the Midcontinent Ecological Science Center (MESC) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) a?? sent a survey by mail to residents in southwest Colorado and northwest New Mexico to better understand quality of life issues in this area of the Colorado Plateau. Collaborators in this study included the Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service offices located in Durango, Colorado. The information was collected to determine: *what elements of the community and surrounding landscapes contribute to the quality of like among resident populations, and *what critical areas, elements, and special places are essential to retain quality of life.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Boulder Creek: A stream ecosystem in an urban landscape

The Boulder Creek Watershed, within the Front Range region of Colorado, is typical of many western watersheds because it is composed of a high-gradient upper reach mostly fed by snowmelt, a substantial change in gradient at the range front, and an urban corridor within the lower gradient section. A stream ecosystem within an urban landscape not only can provide water for municipal, industrial, and agricultural needs, but also can be utilized for recreation, esthetic enjoyment, and wastewater disposal. The purpose of this 26 km bicycle field trip is to explore the hydrology and geochemistry of Boulder and South Boulder Creeks and to discuss topics including flood frequency and hazards, aqueous geochemistry of the watershed, and potential impacts of invasive species and emerging contaminants on stream ecology.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Effects of climate change on midwestern ecosystems: Appalachian – Interior – Northeast Mesic Forest

The Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest ecosystem, historically buffered by cool, moist conditions, may experience significant stress under future climate change, particularly due to intensifying droughts and milder winters in the midwestern United States. Droughts are expected to intensify in frequency and severity, depleting soil moisture, increasing tree mortality, and reshaping species composition. Increasing aridity and disrupted hydrologic cycles will likely accelerate soil erosion, deplete nutrients, and heighten wildfire risk. Meanwhile, milder winters may reduce snowpack insulation, increase freeze-thaw cycles, and alter growing seasons, potentially amplifying cold stress, disrupting phenology, and contributing to shifts in habitat structure and community composition. While easing winter severity may temporarily boost plant productivity and facilitate species migration into and throughout the Midwest, it can also increase the risk of frost damage for early-leafing trees and disrupt ecological relationships, such as plant-pollinator interactions. Together, these stressors may drive fundamental shifts in habitat structure and community composition, favoring drought-, fire-, and cold-tolerant species, while historically dominant, moisture-dependent species decline. Species with limited drought resistance, such as those with shallow roots or low water-use efficiency, may be especially vulnerable, while drought-adapted taxa could gain a competitive advantage. This shift could trigger a departure from over a century of mesophication in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, which has favored shade-loving, moisture-dependent species in fire-suppressed landscapes. As a result, these forests may be particularly ill-equipped to withstand the novel environmental conditions imposed by intensifying droughts and milder winters. The Appalachian-Northeast Mesic Forest habitat group, dominated by eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) and eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ), is likely particularly vulnerable, as both dominant species are projected to decline due to increasing drought stress and shifting competitive dynamics. In the North-Central Beech - Maple - Basswood Forest, the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa may be more vulnerable than more eastern portions of the habitat due to its already drier conditions, with climate change expected to push these communities beyond favorable conditions. Species interactions, including invasive species, pests, and herbivory, are also likely to be reshaped by climate change, compounding stress on habitat groups throughout the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest. Warmer winters and increased disturbance may facilitate the expansion of invasive species, which outcompete native vegetation and alter ecosystem dynamics. At the same time, pests and pathogens are likely to become more destructive, as milder winters enhance their survival and spread and drought weakens tree defenses. Additionally, rising white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) populations, supported by warmer winters, may shift forest regeneration patterns by selectively browsing on sensitive seedlings and saplings, limiting the recruitment of historically dominant tree species while favoring browse-resistant plants. Collectively, these pressures can drive significant and ongoing ecological transformation in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, highlighting the need for adaptive management strategies to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗