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Analyzing stakeholder preferences for managing elk and bison at the National Elk Refuge and Grand Teton National Park: An example of the disparate stakeholder management approach

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the National Park Service (NPS) are preparing a management plan for bison and elk inhabiting the National Elk Refuge (NER) and Grand Teton National Park (GTNP) near Jackson Hole, Wyoming. A management plan is needed to evaluate current and possible changes to habitat management, disease management, winter feeding and hunting programs related to the NER and GTNP. In order to make good decisions, managers need to incorporate the opinions and values of the involved stakeholders as well as understand the complex institutional constraints and opportunities that influence the decision making process. Federal, state, local, private and public stakeholders have diverse values and preferences about how to use and manage resources, and underlying institutional factors give certain stakeholders more influence over the outcome. How stakeholders use their influence can greatly affect the time, effort and costs of the decision making process. The overall result will depend both on the stakeholder’s relative power and level of conviction for their preferences. Many programs and tools have been developed by different disciplines to facilitate group negotiation and decision making. Three examples are relevant here. First, decision analysis models such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are commonly used to prioritize the goals and objectives of stakeholders’ preferences for resource planning by formally structuring conflicts and assisting decision makers in developing a compromised solution (Forman, 1998). Second, institutional models such as the Legal Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) have been used to describe the organizational rules of behavior and the institutional boundaries constraining management decisions (Lamb and others, 1998). Finally, public choice models have been used to predict the potential success of rent-seeking activity (spending additional time and money to exert political pressure) to change the political rules (Becker, 1983). While these tools have been successful at addressing various pieces of the natural resource decision making process, their use in isolation is not enough to fully depict the complexities of the physical and biological systems with the rules and constraints of the underlying economic and political systems. An approach is needed that combines natural sciences, economics, and politics.

Wyoming↗

High severity fire in forests of the southwest: Conservation implications. Progress Report August 2005

The occurrence of large, severe fires in southwestern ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests has resulted in concern that these forests may not persist under such an extreme disturbance regime. In our research, we are examining the outcomes of high-severity fire in ponderosa pine forests and their neighboring communities across an elevational gradient. One goal of our work is to contribute to understanding the resiliency of these systems, but we also want to investigate the conservation values intrinsic to the diverse communities that represent alternative successional trajectories after severe fire. One assumption of our research is that the spatial pattern of a disturbance becomes increasingly important when the disturbance is large and biological legacies are few and sparse. We ask, therefore, what spectrum of plant communities results from high severity fire, and what is their relationship to spatial patterns of severity mapped in early post fire timeframes? Also, do spatial patterns of older burns (1950–80) differ from recent burns (1998–present) in ways that make us expect successional changes years from now to differ from those we observed at our older burn field sites? Here, we describe the first stages of our work in mapping burn severity at old and new burns as well as the work we have recently completed at our two field sites. The report is organized under our two main objectives with the purpose of summarizing the steps we have taken in working toward these objectives, as well as changes we have made in methodologies since the original study plan. We present some general observations and plans for the next steps in data analysis and product generation. This report, the study plan, a photograph gallery, slide presentations, and our contact information are available on the project Web site http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/swfire/swfire.html .

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Integrating Stakeholders and Users into the Geography Discipline's Research Process

Future research priorities of Geography emphasize the discipline's leadership role in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in multidisciplinary and integrated research on human and environmental systems and how these systems are interrelated and respond to change Geography's research priorities also emphasize providing science that is usable to society and creating decision support products applicable to given customer problems. To achieve these goals, we must understand the relationship between our research and our customer, and how to integrate the customer into the research process. This report details the elements of the research process that help achieve the degree of stakeholder involvement necessary to ensure a successful end-product. It offers suggestions that can help researchers better understand stakeholders and customers and involve them in the research process more effectively, while preserving the integrity of the science. Its aim is to help researchers understand the problems and challenges faced by our customers and communicate the ways in which Geography can help address their problems. Adopting these guidelines can improve the efficiency of the research process and lead to higher quality output. We will be able to conduct better research because we will have an improved understanding of the research problem and the stakeholders involved. This report covers a broad range of topics, from identifying and communicating with stakeholders and users, to the use of language, to how to effectively present scientific information to the user. It does not offer a 'one size fits all' method. Instead, perhaps only specific sections are suitable for a given project and customers, depending on project scope and needs. This report is based on the objectives of Geography's strategic plan, U. S. Geological Survey's strategic plan, and Department of Interior's strategic plan. Section 2 of these guidelines describes the purpose of the research process in Geography and the need for better user involvement in the process. Section 3 explains how to conduct a stakeholder analysis. Section 4 explains how to conduct a user-needs assessment.

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Assessment and management of dead-wood habitat

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is in the process of revising its resource management plans for six districts in western and southern Oregon as the result of the settlement of a lawsuit brought by the American Forest Resource Council. A range of management alternatives is being considered and evaluated including at least one that will minimize reserves on O&C lands. In order to develop the bases for evaluating management alternatives, the agency needs to derive a reasonable range of objectives for key issues and resources. Dead-wood habitat for wildlife has been identified as a key resource for which decision-making tools and techniques need to be refined and clarified. Under the Northwest Forest Plan, reserves were to play an important role in providing habitat for species associated with dead wood (U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management, 1994). Thus, the BLM needs to: 1) address the question of how dead wood will be provided if reserves are not included as a management strategy in the revised Resource Management Plan, and 2) be able to evaluate the effects of alternative land management approaches. Dead wood has become an increasingly important conservation issue in managed forests, as awareness of its function in providing wildlife habitat and in basic ecological processes has dramatically increased over the last several decades (Laudenslayer et al., 2002). A major concern of forest managers is providing dead wood habitat for terrestrial wildlife. Wildlife in Pacific Northwest forests have evolved with disturbances that create large amounts of dead wood; so, it is not surprising that many species are closely associated with standing (snags) or down, dead wood. In general, the occurrence or abundance of one-quarter to one-third of forest-dwelling vertebrate wildlife species, is strongly associated with availability of suitable dead-wood habitat (Bunnell et al., 1999; Rose et al., 2001). In Oregon and Washington, approximately 150 species of wildlife are reported to use dead wood in forests (O’Neil et al., 2001). Forty-seven sensitive and special-status species are associated with dead wood (Appendix A). These are key species for management consideration because concern over small or declining populations is often related to loss of suitable dead-wood habitat (Marshall et al., 1996). Primary excavators (woodpeckers) also are often the focus of dead-wood management, because they perform keystone functions in forest ecosystems by creating cavities for secondary cavity-nesters (Martin and Eadie, 1999; Aubry and Raley, 2002). A diverse guild of secondary cavity-users (including swallows, bluebirds, several species of ducks and owls, ash-throated flycatcher, flying squirrel, bats, and many other species) is unable to excavate dead wood, and therefore relies on cavities created by woodpeckers for nesting sites. Suitable nest cavities are essential for reproduction, and their availability limits population size (Newton, 1994). Thus, populations of secondary cavity-nesters are tightly linked to the habitat requirements of primary excavators. Although managers often focus on decaying wood as habitat for wildlife, the integral role dead wood plays in ecological processes is an equally important consideration for management. Rose et al. (2001) provide a thorough review of the ecological functions of dead wood in Pacific Northwest forests, briefly summarized here. Decaying wood functions in: soil development and productivity, nutrient cycling, nitrogen fixation, and carbon storage. From ridge tops, to headwater streams, to estuaries and coastal marine ecosystems, decaying wood is fundamental to diverse terrestrial and aquatic food webs. Wildlife species that use dead wood for cover or feeding are linked to these ecosystem processes through a broad array of functional roles, including facilitation of decay and trophic interactions with other organisms (Marcot, 2002; Marcot, 2003). For example, by puncturing bark and fragmenting sapwood, woodpeckers create sites favorable for wood-decaying organisms (Farris et al., 2004), which in turn create habitat for other species and facilitate nutrient cycling. Small mammals that use down wood for cover function in the dispersal of plant seeds and fungal spores (Carey et al., 1999). Resident cavitynesting birds may regulate insect populations by preying on overwintering arthropods (Jackson, 1979; Kroll and Fleet, 1979). These examples illustrate how dead wood not only directly provides habitat for a large number of wildlife species, but also forms the foundation of functional webs that critically influence forest ecosystems (Marcot, 2002; Marcot, 2003). The important and far-reaching implications of management of decaying wood highlight the need for conservation of dead-wood resources in managed forests. Consideration of the key ecological functions of species associated with dead wood can help guide management of dead wood in a framework consistent with the paradigm of ecosystem management (Marcot and Vander Heyden, 2001; Marcot, 2002.) As more information is revealed about the ecological and habitat values of decaying wood, concern has increased over a reduction in the current amounts of dead wood relative to historic levels (Ohmann and Waddell, 2002). Past management practices have tended to severely reduce amounts of dead wood throughout all stages of forest development (Hansen et al., 1991). The large amounts of legacy wood that characterize young post-disturbance forests are not realized in managed stands, because most of the wood volume is removed at harvest for economic and safety reasons. Mid-rotation thinning is used to “salvage” some mortality that might otherwise occur due to suppression, so fewer snags are recruited in mid-seral stages. Harvest rotations of 80 years or less truncate tree size in managed stands, and thus limit the production of large-diameter wood. As a consequence of these practices, dead wood has been reduced by as much as 90% after two rotations of managed Douglas-fir (Rose et al., 2001). Large legacy deadwood is becoming a scarce, critical habitat that will take decades to centuries to replace. Furthermore, management continues to have important direct and indirect effects on the amount and distribution of dead wood in forests. Current guidelines for managing dead wood may be inadequate to maintain habitat for all associated species because they largely focus on a single use of dead wood (nesting habitat) by a small suite of species (cavity-nesting birds), and may under represent the sizes and amounts of dead wood used by many wildlife species (Rose et al., 2001, Wilhere, 2003).

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Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Hancock County, Maine

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Hancock County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Hancock County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps (all types) in Hancock County, Maine, is at least 19 years. Most of these studies were published in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and no study is more recent than 1992. Some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study, indicating that the true average age of the data is probably more than 19 years. Since the studies were done, development has occurred in some of the watersheds and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions or accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

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Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Penobscot County, Maine

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program (MFMP), began scoping work in 2006 for Penobscot County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Penobscot County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database with information gathered during the scoping process. As of 2007, the average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Penobscot County, Maine, is 22 years, based on the most recent revisions to the maps. Because the revisions did not affect all the map panels in each town, however, the true average date probably is more than 22 years. Many of the studies were published in the mid-1980s. Since the studies were completed, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

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Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Lincoln County, Maine

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Lincoln County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Lincoln County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Lincoln County, Maine is at least 17 years. Many of these studies were published in the mid- to late-1980s, and some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study. However, in the ensuing 15-20 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

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Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Androscoggin County, Maine

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed and as funds allow. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Androscoggin County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Androscoggin County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Androscoggin County, Maine, is at least 17 years. Most studies were published in the early 1990s, and some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study date. Since the studies were done, development has occurred in many of the watersheds and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

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Long-term and storm-related shoreline change trends in the Florida Gulf Islands National Seashore

Coastal erosion on Northern Gulf of Mexico barrier islands is an ongoing issue that was exacerbated by the storm seasons of 2004 and 2005 when several hurricanes made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. Two units of the Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS), located on Santa Rosa Island, a barrier island off the Panhandle coast of Florida, were highly impacted during the hurricanes of 2004 (Ivan) and 2005 (Cindy, Dennis, Katrina and Rita). In addition to the loss of or damage to natural and cultural resources within the park, damage to park infrastructure, including park access roads and utilities, occurred in areas experiencing rapid shoreline retreat. The main park road was located as close as 50 m to the pre-storm (2001) shoreline and was still under repair from damage incurred during Hurricane Ivan when the 2005 hurricanes struck. A new General Management Plan is under development for the Gulf Islands National Seashore. This plan, like the existing General Management Plan, strives to incorporate natural barrier island processes, and will guide future efforts to provide access to units of Gulf Islands National Seashore on Santa Rosa Island. To assess changes in island geomorphology and provide data for park management, the National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey are currently analyzing shoreline change to better understand long-term (100+ years) shoreline change trends as well as short-term shoreline impact and recovery to severe storm events. Results show that over an ~140-year period from the late 1800s to May 2004, the average shoreline erosion rates in the Fort Pickens and Santa Rosa units of GUIS were -0.7m/yr and -0.1 m/yr, respectively. Areas of historic erosion, reaching a maximum rate of -1.3 m/yr, correspond to areas that experienced overwash and road damage during the 2004 hurricane season.. The shoreline eroded as much as ~60 m during Hurricane Ivan, and as much as ~88 m over the course of the 2005 storm season. The shoreline erosion rates in the areas where the park road was heavily damaged were as high as -70.2 m/yr over the 2004-2005 time period. Additional post-storm monitoring of these sections of the island, to assess whether erosion rates stabilize, will help to parks to determine the best long-term management strategy for the park infrastructure.

Florida↗

Short Course Introduction to Quantitative Mineral Resource Assessments

This is an abbreviated text supplementing the content of three sets of slides used in a short course that has been presented by the author at several workshops. The slides should be viewed in the order of (1) Introduction and models, (2) Delineation and estimation, and (3) Combining estimates and summary. References cited in the slides are listed at the end of this text. The purpose of the three-part form of mineral resource assessments discussed in the accompanying slides is to make unbiased quantitative assessments in a format needed in decision-support systems so that consequences of alternative courses of action can be examined. The three-part form of mineral resource assessments was developed to assist policy makers evaluate the consequences of alternative courses of action with respect to land use and mineral-resource development. The audience for three-part assessments is a governmental or industrial policy maker, a manager of exploration, a planner of regional development, or similar decision-maker. Some of the tools and models presented here will be useful for selection of exploration sites, but that is a side benefit, not the goal. To provide unbiased information, we recommend the three-part form of mineral resource assessments where general locations of undiscovered deposits are delineated from a deposit type's geologic setting, frequency distributions of tonnages and grades of well-explored deposits serve as models of grades and tonnages of undiscovered deposits, and number of undiscovered deposits are estimated probabilistically by type. The internally consistent descriptive, grade and tonnage, deposit density, and economic models used in the design of the three-part form of assessments reduce the chances of biased estimates of the undiscovered resources. What and why quantitative resource assessments: The kind of assessment recommended here is founded in decision analysis in order to provide a framework for making decisions concerning mineral resources under conditions of uncertainty. What this means is that we start with the question of what kinds of questions is the decision maker trying to resolve and what forms of information would aid in resolving these questions. Some applications of mineral resource assessments: To plan and guide exploration programs, to assist in land use planning, to plan the location of infrastructure, to estimate mineral endowment, and to identify deposits that present special environmental challenges. Why not just rank prospects / areas? Need for financial analysis, need for comparison with other land uses, need for comparison with distant tracts of land, need to know how uncertain the estimates are, need for consideration of economic and environmental consequences of possible development. Our goal is to provide unbiased information useful to decision-makers.

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Protocol for monitoring metals in Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Missouri: Version 1.0

The National Park Service is developing a monitoring plan for the Ozark National Scenic Riverways in southeastern Missouri. Because of concerns about the release of lead, zinc, and other metals from lead-zinc mining to streams, the monitoring plan will include mining-related metals. After considering a variety of alternatives, the plan will consist of measuring the concentrations of cadmium, cobalt, lead, nickel, and zinc in composite samples of crayfish ( Orconectes luteus or alternate species) and Asian clam ( Corbicula fluminea ) collected periodically from selected sites. This document, which comprises a protocol narrative and supporting standard operating procedures, describes the methods to be employed prior to, during, and after collection of the organisms, along with procedures for their chemical analysis and quality assurance; statistical analysis, interpretation, and reporting of the data; and for modifying the protocol narrative and supporting standard operating procedures. A list of supplies and equipment, data forms, and sample labels are also included. An example based on data from a pilot study is presented.

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CoalVal-A coal resource valuation program

CoalVal is a menu-driven Windows program that produces cost-of-mining analyses of mine-modeled coal resources. Geological modeling of the coal beds and some degree of mine planning, from basic prefeasibility to advanced, must already have been performed before this program can be used. United States Geological Survey mine planning is done from a very basic, prefeasibility standpoint, but the accuracy of CoalVal's output is a reflection of the accuracy of the data entered, both for mine costs and mine planning. The mining cost analysis is done by using mine cost models designed for the commonly employed, surface and underground mining methods utilized in the United States. CoalVal requires a Microsoft Windows? 98 or Windows? XP operating system and a minimum of 1 gigabyte of random access memory to perform operations. It will not operate on Microsoft Vista?, Windows? 7, or Macintosh? operating systems. The program will summarize the evaluation of an unlimited number of coal seams, haulage zones, tax entities, or other area delineations for a given coal property, coalfield, or basin. When the reader opens the CoalVal publication from the USGS website, options are provided to download the CoalVal publication manual and the CoalVal Program. The CoalVal report is divided into five specific areas relevant to the development and use of the CoalVal program: 1. Introduction to CoalVal Assumptions and Concepts. 2. Mine Model Assumption Details (appendix A). 3. CoalVal Project Tutorial (appendix B). 4. Program Description (appendix C). 5. Mine Model and Discounted Cash Flow Formulas (appendix D). The tutorial explains how to enter coal resource and quality data by mining method; program default values for production, operating, and cost variables; and ones own operating and cost variables into the program. Generated summary reports list the volume of resource in short tons available for mining, recoverable short tons by mining method; the seam or property being mined; operating cost per ton; and discounted cash flow cost per ton to mine and process the resources. Costs are calculated as loaded in a unit train, free-on-board the tipple, at a rate of return prescribed by the evaluator. The recoverable resources (in short tons) may be grouped by incremental cost over any range chosen by the user. For example, in the Gillette coalfield evaluation, the discounted cash flow mining cost (at an 8 percent rate of return) and its associated tonnage may be grouped by any applicable increment (for example, $0.10 per ton, $0.20 per ton, and so on) and using any dollar per ton range that is desired (for example, from $4.00 per ton to $15.00 per ton). This grouping ability allows the user to separate the coal reserves from the nonreserve resources and to construct cost curves to determine the effects of coal market fluctuations on the availability of coal for fuel whether for the generation of electricity or for coal-to-liquids processes. Coking coals are not addressed in this report.

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Multiple technologies applied to characterization of the porosity and permeability of the Biscayne aquifer, Florida

Research is needed to determine how seepage-control actions planned by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) will affect recharge, groundwater flow, and discharge within the dual-porosity karstic Biscayne aquifer where it extends eastward from the Everglades to Biscayne Bay. A key issue is whether the plan can be accomplished without causing urban flooding in adjacent populated areas and diminishing coastal freshwater flow needed in the restoration of the ecologic systems. Predictive simulation of groundwater flow is a prudent approach to understanding hydrologic change and potential ecologic impacts. A fundamental problem to simulation of karst groundwater flow is how best to represent aquifer heterogeneity. Currently, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers and academic partners are applying multiple innovative technologies to characterize the spatial distribution of porosity and permeability within the Biscayne aquifer.

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Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) ecological model documentation volume 1: Estuarine prey fish biomass availability v1.0.0

Estuarine fish serve as an important prey base in the Greater Everglades ecosystem for key fauna such as wading birds, crocodiles, alligators, and piscivorous fishes. Human-made changes to freshwater flow across the Greater Everglades have resulted in less freshwater flow into the fringing estuaries and coasts. These changes in freshwater input have altered salinity patterns and negatively affected primary production of the estuarine fish prey base. Planned restoration projects should affect salinity and water depth both spatially and temporally and result in an increase in appropriate water conditions in areas occupied by estuarine fish. To assist in restoration planning, an ecological model of estuarine prey fish biomass availability was developed as an evaluation tool to aid in the determination of acceptable ranges of salinity and water depth. Comparisons of model output to field data indicate that the model accurately predicts prey biomass in the estuarine regions of the model domain. This model can be used to compare alternative restoration plans and select those that provide suitable conditions.

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U.S. Geological Survey energy and minerals science strategy

The economy, national security, and standard of living of the United States depend heavily on adequate and reliable supplies of energy and mineral resources. Based on current population and consumption trends, the Nation's use of energy and minerals can be expected to grow, driving the demand for ever broader scientific understanding of resource formation, location, and availability. In addition, the increasing importance of environmental stewardship, human health, and sustainable growth place further emphasis on energy and mineral resources research and understanding. Collectively, these trends in resource demand and the interconnectedness among resources will lead to new challenges and, in turn, require cutting-edge science for the next generation of societal decisions. The contributions of the U.S. Geological Survey to energy and minerals research are well established. Based on five interrelated goals, this plan establishes a comprehensive science strategy. It provides a structure that identifies the most critical aspects of energy and mineral resources for the coming decade. * Goal 1. - Understand fundamental Earth processes that form energy and mineral resources. * Goal 2. - Understand the environmental behavior of energy and mineral resources and their waste products. * Goal 3. - Provide inventories and assessments of energy and mineral resources. * Goal 4. - Understand the effects of energy and mineral development on natural resources. * Goal 5. - Understand the availability and reliability of energy and mineral resource supplies. Within each goal, multiple, scalable actions are identified. The level of specificity and complexity of these actions varies, consistent with the reality that even a modest refocus can yield large payoffs in the near term whereas more ambitious plans may take years to reach fruition. As such, prioritization of actions is largely dependent on policy direction, available resources, and the sequencing of prerequisite steps that will lead up to the most visionary directions. The science strategy stresses early planning and places an emphasis on interdisciplinary collaboration and leveraging of expertise across the U.S. Geological Survey.

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Natural hazards science strategy

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Open-File Report↗

Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information within challenging environmental and ecosystem-management contexts and to provide an interactive way of learning about the complexity of interactions between people and natural systems. Further progress on the use of pedagogical games to fulfill the USGS mission will require collaboration among scientists, game developers, educators, and stakeholders. We conclude that as the USGS positions itself to communicate and convey the results of multiple science strategies, including natural-resource security and sustainability, pedagogical game development and agent-based modeling offer a means to (1) establish interdisciplinary and collaborative teams with a focused integrated outcome; (2) contribute to the modeling of interaction, feedback, and adaptation of ecosystems; and (3) enable social learning through a broadly appealing and increasingly sophisticated medium.

Open-File Report↗

Methow River Studies, Washington: abundance estimates from Beaver Creek and the Chewuch River screw trap, methodology testing in the Whitefish Island side channel, and survival and detection estimates from hatchery fish releases, 2013

Salmon and steelhead populations have been severely depleted in the Columbia River from factors such as the presence of tributary dams, unscreened irrigation diversions, and habitat degradation from logging, mining, grazing, and others (Raymond, 1988). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been funded by the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to provide evaluation of on-going Reclamation funded efforts to recover Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed anadromous salmonid populations in the Methow River watershed, a watershed of the Columbia River in the Upper Columbia River Basin, in north-central Washington State (fig. 1). This monitoring and evaluation program was funded to document Reclamation’s effort to partially fulfill the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion (BiOp) (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Fisheries Division 2003). This Biological Opinion includes Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPA) to protect listed salmon and steelhead across their life cycle. Species of concern in the Methow River include Upper Columbia River (UCR) spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), UCR summer steelhead ( O. mykiss ), and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ), which are all listed as threatened or endangered under the ESA. The work done by the USGS since 2004 has encompassed three phases of work. The first phase started in 2004 and continued through 2012. This first phase involved the evaluation of stream colonization and fish production in Beaver Creek following the modification of several water diversions (2000–2006) that were acting as barriers to upstream fish movement. Products to date from this work include: Ruttenburg (2007), Connolly and others (2008), Martens and Connolly (2008), Connolly (2010), Connolly and others (2010), Martens and Connolly (2010), Benjamin and others (2012), Romine and others (2013a), Weigel and others (2013a, 2013b, 2013c), and Martens and others (2014). The second phase, initiated in 2008, focuses on the evaluation of the M2 reach (rkm 66– 80) of the mainstem Methow River prior to restoration actions planned by Reclamation and Yakama Nation. The M2 study was designed to help understand the inter-relationships between stream habitat and the life history of various fish species to explain potential success or limitations in response to restoration actions. To help document changes derived by restoration, two reference reaches (Upper Methow between rkm 85 and 90, and Chewuch River between rkm 4 and 11) were identified based on relative lack of disturbance, proximity to the restoration reach, and relative unconfined geomorphology. A control reach (Lower Methow between rkm 57 and 64, also referred to as “Silver Reach”) was 2 identified based on its similar disturbance as the reference reach, proximity to the restoration reach, and relatively unconfined geomorphology. Products to date include Barber and others (2011), Bellmore (2011), Tibbits and others (2012), Bellmore and others (2013), Benjamin and others (2013), Romine and others (2013b), Bellmore and other (2014), Martens and others (2014), and Martens and Connolly (2014). The third phase of work has been to help with the development and to provide data for modeling efforts. Most of the planned M2 reach restoration is focused on the creation or improvement of offchannel habitat, especially side channels. The pre-restoration portion of this study has been documented by Martens and Connolly (2014). Side channel restoration actions were initiated in 2012 (Whitefish Island side channel, also referred to as SC3; rkm 76) and are planned to continue over the next several years. The Whitefish Island side channel was modified to maintain hydrological connection with the mainstem throughout the year. In addition, several log structures were installed and pools were deepened to create fish habitat. Prior to restoration, this side channel would lose hydrological connection with the mainstem Methow River, leaving one large pool near the bottom of the side channel and several shallow isolated pools that may or may not go dry. In seasonally connected side channels, juvenile salmonid survival in pools less than 100 cm average depth was lower than in pools greater than 100 cm average depth (Martens and Connolly, 2014). In this report, we document our field work and analysis completed in 2013. During 2013, USGS sampling efforts were focused on resampling of three reaches in Beaver Creek, testing methodology in the Whitefish Island side channel, conducting hatchery survival estimates, and operating a screw trap on the Chewuch River (funded by Yakama Nation; fig. 1). The Beaver Creek sampling effort was a revisit of three index sites sampled continuously from 2004 to 2007 to look at the fish response to barrier removal. Methodology testing in Whitefish Island side channel was done to determine the best method for evaluating fish populations after restoration efforts in side channels (previous sampling methods were determined to be ineffective after pools were deepened). Hatchery survival estimates were completed to monitor fish survival in the Methow and Columbia Rivers, while the screw trap was operated to estimate migrating fish populations in the Chewuch River and track passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagged fish. In addition, we maintained a network of PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTIS), assisted Reclamation with fish removal events associated with stream restoration (two people for 9 days; 14 percent of summer field season), and conducted a stream metabolism study designed to help parameterize and calibrate the stream productivity model (Bellmore and others, 2014) with model validation.

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