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Perspectives on bay-delta science and policy

The State of Bay–Delta Science 2008 highlighted seven emerging perspectives on science and management of the Delta. These perspectives had important effects on policy and legislation concerning management of the Delta ecosystem and water exports. From the collection of papers that make up the State of Bay–Delta Science 2016, we derive another seven perspectives that augment those published in 2008. The new perspectives address nutrient and contaminant concentrations in Delta waters, the failure of the Delta food web to support native species, the role of multiple stressors in driving species toward extinction, and the emerging importance of extreme events in driving change in the ecosystem and the water supply. The scientific advances that underpin these new perspectives were made possible by new measurement and analytic tools. We briefly discuss some of these, including miniaturized acoustic fish tags, sensors for monitoring of water quality, analytic techniques for disaggregating complex contaminant mixtures, remote sensing to assess levee vulnerability, and multidimensional hydrodynamic modeling. Despite these new tools and scientific insights, species conservation objectives for the Delta are not being met. We believe that this lack of progress stems in part from the fact that science and policy do not incorporate sufficiently long-term perspectives. Looking forward half a century was central to the Delta Visioning process, but science and policy have not embraced this conceptual breadth. We are also concerned that protection and enhancement of the unique cultural, recreational, natural resource, and agricultural values of the Delta as an evolving place, as required by the Delta Reform Act, has received no critical study and analysis. Adopting wider and longer science and policy perspectives immediately encourages recognition of the need for evaluation, analysis, and public discourse on novel conservation approaches. These longer and wider perspectives also encourage more attention to the opportunities provided by heavily invaded ecosystems. It is past time to turn scientific and policy attention to these issues.

California↗

A regional simulation modeling framework for evaluating invasive annual grass management across the sagebrush biome

Invasive annual grasses (IAG) continue to spread within the sagebrush biome of the western United States, degrading plant communities and wildlife habitat, decreasing forage for ranching livelihoods, and heightening wildfire risk. Effective management of IAGs requires action and long-term strategic planning across the sagebrush biome, but the cumulative effects of IAG treatments over time and space are not well understood, especially over broad extents defined for strategies like the Sagebrush Conservation Design. We developed a simulation model and sampling framework that allow local-scale actions to be ‘scaled up’ to evaluate large-scale regional and biome-wide management strategy outcomes. We worked with natural resource managers and experts to co-develop a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model of IAG dynamics in sagebrush landscapes that can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies. We evaluated our framework by contrasting two baseline scenarios in terms of their long-term effects on the sagebrush biome. We show that focusing management efforts on moderate to high IAG cover was effective at reducing full conversion to IAGs but failed to prevent widespread establishment of IAGs in core sagebrush areas, exposing them to increased risk of wildfire and wildlife habitat degradation. The results of our model help quantify the extent of the problem that IAGs pose to sagebrush ecosystems given current knowledge and management efforts. Our framework provides a platform to explore alternative management strategy outcomes and can help managers develop informed conservation plans with realistic expectations for return on investment of resources committed to sagebrush landscapes.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Conservation Biology↗

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system

Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval ~ 20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the persistence of metapopulations of early-successional species under both suppressed disturbance regimes and disturbance regimes where climate change has further altered disturbance frequency or scope.

Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota↗

Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c ) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of future land-use scenarios.

Colorado↗

Abundance and density of lesser prairie-chickens and leks in Texas

Lesser prairie-chickens (LEPCs; Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) have experienced population declines due to both direct and indirect habitat loss, including conversion of native rangeland to cropland and disturbance from energy development. Our objectives were to 1) determine the current density of LEPC leks and LEPCs within the Texas (USA) occupied range, including areas with high potential for wind-energy development; and 2) find new leks. To estimate lek and LEPC density, we employed a line-transect-based aerial survey method using a Robinson 22 helicopter to count leks. We surveyed 26,810.9 km of transect in the spring of 2010 and 2011 and we detected 96 leks. We estimated a density of 2.0 leks/100 km(2) (90% CI = 1.4-2.7 leks/100 km(2)) and 12.3 LEPCs/100 km(2) (90% CI = 8.5-17.9 LEPCs/100 km(2)) and an abundance of 293.6 leks (90% CI = 213.9-403.0 leks) and 1,822.4 LEPCs (90% CI = 1,253.7-2,649.1 LEPCs) for our sampling frame. Our best model indicated that lek size and lek type (AIC(c) wt = 0.235) influenced lek detectability. Lek detectability was greater for larger leks and natural leks versus man-made leks. Our statewide survey efforts provide wildlife managers and biologists with population estimates, new lek locations, and areas to target for monitoring and conservation.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

An evaluation of the efficiency of minnow traps for estimating the abundance of minnows in desert spring systems

Desert springs are sensitive aquatic ecosystems that pose unique challenges to natural resource managers and researchers. Among the most important of these is the need to accurately quantify population parameters for resident fish, particularly when the species are of special conservation concern. We evaluated the efficiency of baited minnow traps for estimating the abundance of two at-risk species, Foskett Speckled Dace Rhinichthys osculus ssp. and Borax Lake Chub Gila boraxobius , in desert spring systems in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated alternative sample designs using simulation and found that capture–recapture designs with four capture occasions would maximize the accuracy of estimates and minimize fish handling. We implemented the design and estimated capture and recapture probabilities using the Huggins closed-capture estimator. Trap capture probabilities averaged 23% and 26% for Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub, respectively, but differed substantially among sample locations, through time, and nonlinearly with fish body size. Recapture probabilities for Foskett Speckled Dace were, on average, 1.6 times greater than (first) capture probabilities, suggesting “trap-happy” behavior. Comparison of population estimates from the Huggins model with the commonly used Lincoln–Petersen estimator indicated that the latter underestimated Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub population size by 48% and by 20%, respectively. These biases were due to variability in capture and recapture probabilities. Simulation of fish monitoring that included the range of capture and recapture probabilities observed indicated that variability in capture and recapture probabilities in time negatively affected the ability to detect annual decreases by up to 20% in fish population size. Failure to account for variability in capture and recapture probabilities can lead to poor quality data and study inferences. Therefore, we recommend that fishery researchers and managers employ sample designs and estimators that can account for this variability.

Oregon↗

Science Goals of the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center

In 2011, the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center (CSC) finalized the first draft of its goals for research needed to address the needs of natural and cultural partners for climate science in the Southeastern United States. The science themes described in this draft plan were established to address the information needs of ecoregion conservation partnerships, such as the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) and other regional conservation-science and resource-management partners. These themes were developed using priorities defined by partners and stakeholders in the Southeast and on a large-scale, multidisciplinary project-the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP)-developed in concert with those partners. Science products developed under these themes will provide models of potential future conditions, assessments of likely impacts, and tools that can be used to inform the conservation management decisions of LCCs and other partners. This information will be critical as managers try to anticipate and adapt to climate change. Resource managers in the Southeast are requesting this type of information, in many cases as a result of observed climate change effects. The Southeast CSC draft science plan identifies six science themes and frames the activities (tasks, with examples of recommended near-term work for each task included herein) related to each theme that are needed to achieve the objectives of the Southeast CSC.

Fact Sheet↗

Where's the Hayward Fault? A green guide to the fault

This report describes self-guided field trips to one of North America's most dangerous earthquake faults: the Hayward Fault. Locations were chosen because of their easy access using mass transit and/or their significance relating to the natural and cultural history of the East Bay landscape. This field-trip guidebook was compiled to help commemorate the 140th anniversary of an estimated M 7.0 earthquake that occurred on the Hayward Fault at approximately 7:50 AM, October 21st, 1868. Although many reports and on-line resources have been compiled about the science and engineering associated with earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, this report has been prepared to serve as an outdoor guide to the fault for the interested public and for educators. The first chapter is a general overview of the geologic setting of the fault. This is followed by ten chapters of field trips to selected areas along the fault, or in the vicinity, where landscape, geologic, and man-made features that have relevance to understanding the nature of the fault and its earthquake history can be found. A glossary is provided to define and illustrate scientific term used throughout this guide. A ?green? theme helps conserve resources and promotes use of public transportation, where possible. Although access to all locations described in this guide is possible by car, alternative suggestions are provided. To help conserve paper, this guidebook is available on-line only; however, select pages or chapters (field trips) within this guide can be printed separately to take along on an excursion. The discussions in this paper highlight transportation alternatives to visit selected field trip locations. In some cases, combinations, such as a ride on BART and a bus, can be used instead of automobile transportation. For other locales, bicycles can be an alternative means of transportation. Transportation descriptions on selected pages are intended to help guide fieldtrip planners or participants choose trip destinations based on transportation options, interests, or special needs.

California↗

Development of an online reporting format to facilitate the inclusion of ecosystem services into Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program reports

The Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program is a program administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farm Service Agency. The Secretary of Agriculture is required to submit an annual report to Congress on Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program agreements that, among other things, reports on the progress made towards fulfilling commitments outlined in the agreements. The U.S. Geological Survey developed an online reporting form designed to ensure that consistent information is submitted to the Farm Service Agency from Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program State partners. Combined with the automated importation of text from partner-provided forms to word-processing documents, individual State reports and annual reports to Congress can now be produced efficiently and in a standardized format. Use of a standardized reporting format will also assist the Farm Service Agency in collecting information needed to support ecosystem service quantifications that go beyond the quantifications required from partners to document progress towards meeting the specific purposes and objectives identified in each agreement. Addition of these overarching conservation effect quantifications builds upon past ecosystem services modeling efforts based on the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs suite of open-source software models; these offer a spatially explicit means to quantify additional ecosystem services across diverse partners in a consistent manner. Data sources are currently available to provide much of the information needed to run these models and complete simulations that would facilitate the quantification and reporting of the societal values of conservation actions taken under the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program. It is the aim of this report to provide the information needed to move towards widescale monitoring of the Nation’s ecosystem services in a natural accounting framework, similar to the framework used to value financial and human capital.

Open-File Report↗

Approximate inland extent of saltwater intrusion at the base of the Biscayne aquifer, Miami-Dade County, Florida, 2022

Miami-Dade County is part of a densely populated urban corridor in southeastern Florida. The Biscayne aquifer serves as Miami-Dade County’s primary drinking water source and is characterized by highly permeable karstic limestone and carbonate sand. The aquifer’s coastal location and permeable nature make it susceptible to saltwater intrusion. Monitoring the current inland extent and the rate of movement of the saltwater front in the aquifer can inform management strategies for conserving the long-term sustainability of the county’s water supply. In the 1950s, the U.S. Geological Survey published a map of the inland extent of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer and has continued to update this map to monitor changes over time, with the most recent update published in 2018. An updated map has been created showing the approximate inland extent of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer in eastern Miami-Dade County in 2022, with the 2018 extent shown for comparison. The inland extent of saltwater intrusion was mapped through the interpretation of borehole electromagnetic induction logs and measurements of chloride and specific conductance in groundwater samples. The location of the saltwater interface at the base of the Biscayne aquifer was represented by the 1,000-milligram-per-liter isochlor. This report describes changes in the location of the saltwater interface from 2018 to 2022. By 2022, the saltwater interface had moved farther inland in both the northern and southern parts of the county, advancing by as much as 0.3 kilometer in the north and up to 0.8 kilometer in the Model Land Area to the south. However, it remained relatively unchanged from its 2018 position in the east-central part of the county.

Florida↗

Mammals of South America, Volume 1, Marsupials, Xenarthrans, Shrews, and Bats

The vast terrain between Panama and Tierra del Fuego contains some of the world?s richest mammalian fauna, but until now it has lacked a comprehensive systematic reference to the identification, distribution, and taxonomy of its mammals. The first such book of its kind and the inaugural volume in a three-part series, Mammals of South America both summarizes existing information and encourages further research of the mammals indigenous to the region. Containing identification keys and brief descriptions of each order, family, and genus, the first volume of Mammals of South America covers marsupials, shrews, armadillos, sloths, anteaters, and bats. Species accounts include taxonomic descriptions, synonymies, keys to identification, distributions with maps and a gazetteer of marginal localities, lists of recognized subspecies, brief summaries of natural history information, and discussions of issues related to taxonomic interpretations. Highly anticipated and much needed, this book will be a landmark contribution to mammalogy, zoology, tropical biology, and conservation biology.

Book↗

A report on genetic affinities and relatedness of Agassiz’s desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) at opposite ends of the Coachella Valley in California

This report summarizes the results for mtDNA and STR genotyping of 41 desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) DNA samples from opposite sides of the Coachella Valley: one sample from the west side at the Mesa wind energy facility in the Whitewater Hills and the other from the mouth of Cottonwood Canyon in Joshua Tree National Park, both within the boundaries of the Coachella Valley Multiple Species Habitat Conservation Plan. Additional samples were collected from tortoises on the northern bajadas of the Orocopia Mountains and from the Santa Rosa Mountains and those results will be presented at a later time in a scientific publication. We tested samples for their mtDNA haplotype and 25 STR loci previously used in other studies. We performed assignment testing to determine the genetic affinity of each individual to the geographic region of collection. Despite apparent isolation, both populations appear to be naturally occurring and do exhibit indications of having experienced increased genetic drift (resulting in increased homozygosity, increased inbreeding or a reduction of genetic diversity). The lack of strong evidence for genetic isolation suggests that long-term maintenance of unfragmented landscapes is an important part of tortoise conservation in the region.

California↗

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Monterey, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath bathymetry data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Monterey map area in central California is located on the Pacific Coast, about 120 km south of San Francisco. Incorporated cities in the map area include Seaside, Monterey, Marina, Pacific Grove, Carmel-by-the-Sea, and Sand City. The local economy receives significant resources from tourism, as well as from the Federal Government. Tourist attractions include the Monterey Bay Aquarium, Cannery Row, Fisherman’s Wharf, and the many golf courses near Pebble Beach, and the area serves as a gateway to the spectacular scenery and outdoor activities along the Big Sur coast to the south. Federal facilities include the Army’s Defense Language Institute, the Naval Postgraduate School, and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (operated by the Navy). In 1994, Fort Ord army base, located between Seaside and Marina, was closed; much of former army base land now makes up the Fort Ord National Monument, managed by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management as part of the National Landscape Conservation System. In addition, part of the old Fort Ord is now occupied by California State University, Monterey Bay. The offshore part of the map area lies entirely within the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, one of the nation’s largest marine sanctuaries. State beaches and parks within the map area include Fort Ord Dunes State Park and the Marina, Monterey, and Asilomar State Beaches, as well as Carmel River State Beach, which includes the Carmel River Lagoon and Wetland Natural Preserve. The map area also includes all or part of several State Marine Protected Areas, including the Carmel Pinnacles, Asilomar, and Lovers Point–Julia Platt State Marine Reserves, as well as the Carmel Bay, Pacific Grove Marine Gardens, Edward F. Ricketts, and Portuguese Ledge State Marine Conservation Areas. The coastal zone in the map area is characterized by two distinct physiographies. From Marina to Monterey, sandy beaches are backed by a belt of sand dunes, as much as 30 to 40 m high and as wide as 8 km. The Salinas River supplies the sand for the beaches and dunes. Nearshore sediment transport is primarily to the south, in the southern Monterey littoral cell. Along the Monterey peninsula, which lies at the north end of the rugged Santa Lucia Range, coastal relief is very different. The peninsula is characterized largely by low marine terraces that formed mostly on hard and relatively stable granitic bedrock. Carmel Beach in Carmel-by-the-Sea is the longest continuous beach in this area; bedrock points and small pocket beaches characterize most of the rest of the peninsula. The Carmel River littoral cell extends along the coast from Point Pinos to Point Lobos (just south of the map area), including Carmel Beach; sediment transport is primarily to the south. The granitic rocks that crop out so prominently along the Monterey peninsula make up part of the Salinian block, a crustal terrane that in this area lies west of the San Andreas Fault and east of the San Gregorio Fault. The strike-slip San Andreas Fault Zone, which lies just 26 km east of the map area, is the most important structure within the Pacific–North American transform plate boundary. The San Gregorio Fault, a secondary fault within the distributed plate boundary, cuts through (and is roughly aligned with) Carmel Canyon, a submarine canyon in the southwest corner of the map area that is part of the Monterey Canyon system. The San Gregorio Fault Zone is part of a fault system that is present predominantly in the offshore for about 400 km, from Point Conception in the south (where it is known as the Hosgri Fault) to Bolinas and Point Reyes in the north. The offshore part of the map area primarily consists of relatively flat continental shelf, bounded on the west by the steep flanks of Carmel Canyon. Shelf width varies from 2 to 3 km in the southern part of the map area, near the mouth of Carmel Canyon, to 14 km in Monterey Bay. Bedrock beneath the shelf is overlain in many areas by variable amounts (0 to 16 m) of upper Quaternary shelf and nearshore sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. “Soft-induration,” unconsolidated sediment is the dominant (about 63 percent) habitat type on the continental shelf, followed by “hard-induration” rock and boulders (about 34 percent) and “mixed-induration” substrate (about 3 percent). At water depths of about 100 to 130 m, the shelf break approximates the shoreline during the sea-level lowstand of the Last Glacial Maximum, about 21,000 years ago. Carmel Canyon and other parts of the Monterey Canyon system in the map area extend from the shelf break to water depths that reach 1,600 m. Most of the extensive incision of the shelf break and canyon flanks probably occurred during repeated Quaternary sea-level lowstands. The relatively straight floor of Carmel Canyon notably is aligned with the San Gregorio Fault Zone. Mixed hard-soft substrate is the most common (about 51 percent) habitat type in Carmel Canyon; hard bedrock and soft, unconsolidated sediment cover about 40 percent and 9 percent of canyon habitat, respectively. This part of the central California coast is exposed to large North Pacific swells from the northwest throughout the year. Wave heights range from 2 to 10 m, the larger swells occurring from October to May. During El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, winter storms track farther south than they do in normal (non-ENSO) years, thereby impacting the map area more frequently and with waves of larger heights. Benthic species observed in the map area are natives of the cold-temperate biogeographic zone that is called either the “Oregonian province” or the “northern California ecoregion.” This biogeographic province is maintained by the long-term stability of the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific subtropical gyre that flows from southern British Columbia to Baja California. Biological productivity resulting from coastal upwelling supports populations of Sooty Shearwater, Western Gull, Common Murre, Cassin’s Auklet, and many other less populous bird species. An observable recovery of Humpback and Blue Whales has occurred in the area; both species are dependent on coastal upwelling to provide nutrients. The large extent of exposed inner shelf bedrock supports large forests of “bull kelp,” which is well adapted for high-wave-energy environments. The kelp beds are well-known habitat for the population of southern sea otters. Common fish species found in the kelp beds and rocky reefs include lingcod and various species of rockfish and greenling.

California↗

Exposure to risk factors experienced during migration is not associated with recent Vermivora warbler population trends

Context Understanding the factors limiting populations of animals is critical for effective conservation. Determining which factors limit populations of migratory species can be especially challenging because of their reliance on multiple, often geographically distant regions during their annual cycles. Objectives We investigated whether distribution-wide variation in recent breeding population trends was more strongly associated with exposure to risk factors experienced during migration (i.e., natural and anthropogenic threats often associated with increased mortality or carry-over effects) or factors associated with breeding and nonbreeding areas in golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) and blue-winged warblers ( V. cyanoptera ), two Nearctic-Neotropical migrants experiencing regionally variable population trends. Methods We used geolocator data from 85 Vermivora warblers ( n = 90 geolocator tracks) tracked from North American breeding locations and Central American nonbreeding locations from 2013 to 2017 to determine variation in space use among populations. We assessed whether differences in space use among populations of Vermivora warblers during migration were associated with exposure to migration risk-factors and whether increased relative exposure to migration risk factors was associated with population declines at regional and subregional scales. Results Regional and subregional populations of Vermivora warblers exhibited variation in space use and exposure to anthropogenic and natural risk-factors. However, we found no evidence that recent variation in population trends of Vermivora warblers was associated with risk-factors experienced by different populations during migration. Instead, factors associated with land cover-types in breeding and nonbreeding areas were more strongly associated with recent population trends. Conclusions Understanding how populations of migratory birds are affected by factors experienced during migration is critical for their conservation. We did not find evidence that variation in exposure to migration risk-factors is associated with recent regional or subregional variation in Vermivora warbler population trends. Consequently, our results suggest that efforts to reverse ongoing population declines of Vermivora warblers may be more effective if directed toward conservation actions targeting limiting factors within the breeding and nonbreeding periods versus those directed at conditions encountered during migration. We caution that geographic variation in projected land-use change may differentially affect areas used by different populations of Vermivora warblers during migration, posing a potential threat to these species in the future.

Landscape Ecology↗

Possibility for reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to free-ranging wildlife: A case study of bats

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

PLoS Pathogens↗

Conflict of energies: Spatially modeling mule deer caloric expenditure in response to oil and gas development

Context Wildlife avoid human disturbances, including roads and development. Avoidance and displacement of wildlife into less suitable habitat due to human development can affect their energy expenditures and fitness. The heart rate and oxygen uptake of large mammals varies with both natural aspects of their habitat (terrain, climate, predators, etc.) and anthropogenic influence (noise, light, fragmentation, etc.). Although incorporating physiological analyses of energetics can inform the impacts of both development and conservation, management decisions rarely incorporate individuals’ energetic requirements when deciding on locations for potential development. Objectives We aimed to estimate the change in expected energy expenditure, numerically and spatially, for mule deer to traverse a landscape with varying levels of oil and gas development through time. Methods Using calculations of energy expenditure of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) by weight, in relation to physical terrain components, plus avoidance factors for anthropogenic disturbance, we developed a spatiotemporal model of the minimum energy required for mule deer to traverse a landscape. We compared expected energy expenditure across 12 study sites with increasing levels of oil and gas development and over time in our study area, on the northern Colorado Plateau of Utah. Results We found that energy expenditure can be increased by development, regardless of terrain, through increased travel distance associated with avoidance behavior. Maximum median energy expenditure to traverse a 1400 ha sample area rose from 1135 to 1935 kilocalories, a 70% increase in energy required of a mule deer. There was a significant relationship between energy expenditure and the size of oil and gas development (p < 0.001), its compactness (p < 0.05), and its ‘thinness’ (p < 0.001), but not terrain ruggedness (p = 0.25). Conclusion As the energy costs of movement correlate across multiple species of large mammals, our analysis of the energetic cost, for mule deer, associated with development can serve as a quantitative representative of the impacts of oil and gas development for multiple mammals—including threatened or endangered species. Our bioenergetic cost-distance model provides a means of delineating impediments to efficient movement and can be used to quantify the expected energetic costs of proposed future developments. As wildlife are exposed to increasing anthropogenic stressors which reduce fitness, it is important to make strategic siting decisions to reduce energetic costs imposed by human activities.

Utah↗

Estimating price elasticity of demand for mineral commodities used in lithium-ion batteries in the face of surging demand

The accelerating adoption of clean energy technologies is driving demand for certain mineral commodities like lithium, essential for electric vehicle batteries. Understanding the influence of the energy transition on each market requires examining their supply and demand price elasticities. However, there have only been a limited number of studies that have estimated mineral demand price elasticities in emerging technologies. We empirically estimate the price elasticity demand (PEDs) for mineral commodities used in lithium-ion battery cathodes and anodes—cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, and nickel. We also test whether the price elasticities of these mineral commodities have changed due to any structural changes in recent years, given the recent expansion in the sales of electric vehicles. Using Two Stage Least Squared (2SLS) econometric techniques, we find that demand has become less elastic for lithium (-0.11), cobalt (-0.45), nickel (-0.09), and manganese (-0.04) after structural breaks in 2020, 2013, 2009, and 2014, respectively. In contrast, demand for natural amorphous graphite (-0.36), and natural flake graphite (-0.58) remains relatively stable over the time period assessed.

Resources, Conservation and Recycling↗