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Analysis of environmental setting, surface-water and groundwater data, and data gaps for the Citizen Potawatomi Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area, Oklahoma, through 2011

The Citizen Potawatomi Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area, consisting of approximately 960 square miles in parts of three counties in central Oklahoma, has an abundance of water resources, being underlain by three principal aquifers (alluvial/terrace, Central Oklahoma, and Vamoosa-Ada), bordered by two major rivers (North Canadian and Canadian), and has several smaller drainages. The Central Oklahoma aquifer (also referred to as the Garber-Wellington aquifer) underlies approximately 3,000 square miles in central Oklahoma in parts of Cleveland, Logan, Lincoln, Oklahoma, and Pottawatomie Counties and much of the tribal jurisdictional area. Water from these aquifers is used for municipal, industrial, commercial, agricultural, and domestic supplies. The approximately 115,000 people living in this area used an estimated 4.41 million gallons of fresh groundwater, 12.12 million gallons of fresh surface water, and 8.15 million gallons of saline groundwater per day in 2005. Approximately 8.48, 2.65, 2.24, 1.55, 0.83, and 0.81 million gallons per day of that water were used for domestic, livestock, commercial, industrial, crop irrigation, and thermoelectric purposes, respectively. Approximately one-third of the water used in 2005 was saline water produced during petroleum production. Future changes in use of freshwater in this area will be affected primarily by changes in population and agricultural practices. Future changes in saline water use will be affected substantially by changes in petroleum production. Parts of the area periodically are subject to flooding and severe droughts that can limit available water resources, particularly during summers, when water use increases and streamflows substantially decrease. Most of the area is characterized by rural types of land cover such as grassland, pasture/hay fields, and deciduous forest, which may limit negative effects on water quality by human activities because of lesser emissions of man-made chemicals on such areas than in more urbanized areas. Much of the water in the area is of good quality, though some parts of this area have water quality impaired by very hard surface water and groundwater; large chloride concentrations in some smaller streams; relatively large concentrations of nutrients and counts of fecal-indicator bacteria in the North Canadian River; and chloride, iron, manganese, and uranium concentrations that exceed primary or secondary drinking-water standards in water samples collected from small numbers of wells. Substantial amounts of hydrologic and water-quality data have been collected in much of this area, but there are gaps in those data caused by relatively few streamflow-gaging stations, uneven distribution of surface-water quality sampling sites, lack of surface-water quality sampling at high-flow and low-flow conditions, and lack of a regularly measured and sampled groundwater network. This report summarizes existing water-use, climatic, geographic, hydrologic, and water-quality data and describes several means of filling gaps in hydrologic data for this area.

Oklahoma↗

Incorporating uncertainty into mercury-offset decisions with a probabilistic network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit holders: An interim report

This interim report describes an alternative approach for evaluating the efficacy of using mercury (Hg) offsets to improve water quality. Hg-offset programs may allow dischargers facing higher-pollution control costs to meet their regulatory obligations by making more cost effective pollutant-reduction decisions. Efficient Hg management requires methods to translate that science and economics into a regulatory decision framework. This report documents the work in progress by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center in collaboration with Stanford University toward developing this decision framework to help managers, regulators, and other stakeholders decide whether offsets can cost effectively meet the Hg total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements in the Sacramento River watershed. Two key approaches being considered are: (1) a probabilistic approach that explicitly incorporates scientific uncertainty, cost information, and value judgments; and (2) a quantitative approach that captures uncertainty in testing the feasibility of Hg offsets. Current fate and transport-process models commonly attempt to predict chemical transformations and transport pathways deterministically. However, the physical, chemical, and biologic processes controlling the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments are complex and poorly understood. Deterministic models of Hg environmental behavior contain large uncertainties, reflecting this lack of understanding. The uncertainty in these underlying physical processes may produce similarly large uncertainties in the decisionmaking process. However, decisions about control strategies are still being made despite the large uncertainties in current Hg loadings, the relations between total Hg (HgT) loading and methylmercury (MeHg) formation, and the relations between control efforts and Hg content in fish. The research presented here focuses on an alternative analytical approach to the current use of safety factors and deterministic methods for Hg TMDL decision support, one that is fully compatible with an adaptive management approach. This alternative approach uses empirical data and informed judgment to provide a scientific and technical basis for helping National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit holders make management decisions. An Hg-offset system would be an option if a wastewater-treatment plant could not achieve NPDES permit requirements for HgT reduction. We develop a probabilistic decision-analytical model consisting of three submodels for HgT loading, MeHg, and cost mitigation within a Bayesian network that integrates information of varying rigor and detail into a simple model of a complex system. Hg processes are identified and quantified by using a combination of historical data, statistical models, and expert judgment. Such an integrated approach to uncertainty analysis allows easy updating of prediction and inference when observations of model variables are made. We demonstrate our approach with data from the Cache Creek watershed (a subbasin of the Sacramento River watershed). The empirical models used to generate the needed probability distributions are based on the same empirical models currently being used by the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Cache Creek Hg TMDL working group. The significant difference is that input uncertainty and error are explicitly included in the model and propagated throughout its algorithms. This work demonstrates how to integrate uncertainty into the complex and highly uncertain Hg TMDL decisionmaking process. The various sources of uncertainty are propagated as decision risk that allows decisionmakers to simultaneously consider uncertainties in remediation/implementation costs while attempting to meet environmental/ecologic targets. We must note that this research is on going. As more data are collected, the HgT and cost-mitigation submodels are updated and the uncertainties may be reduced. Subsequently, the value of using a probabilistic framework for estimating and explicitly stating these uncertainties within a decisionmaking process can be estimated when new data are collected. Future work includes the design and implementation of a Bayesian network decision support system (BN-DSS) to produce mitigation scenarios for offset-project evaluation in the Cache Creek watershed. The decisionmaker, a wastewater-treatment plant, is expected to evaluate potential Hg-offset programs in terms of changes in HgT load changes, MeHg-production potential, project cost, and other suitability criteria. Subsequently, scenarios can be analyzed by performing sensitivity analyses and ranking environmental and economic uncertainties in terms of the decisionmaker’s preferences and risk choices. Such an analysis allows decisionmakers and stakeholders to explore various scenarios and predict the consequences of different stated preferences over outcomes.

Open-File Report↗

Spatial Distribution of Ground-Water Recharge Estimated with a Water-Budget Method for the Jordan Creek Watershed, Lehigh County, Pennsylvania

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Geological Survey, to illustrate a water-budget method for mapping the spatial distribution of ground-water recharge for a 76-square-mile part of the Jordan Creek watershed, northwest of Allentown, in Lehigh County, Pennsylvania. Recharge was estimated by using the Hydrological Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) water-budget model for 577 landscape units in Jordan Creek watershed, delineated on the basis of their soils, land use/land cover, and mean annual precipitation during 1951-2000. The water-budget model routes precipitation falling on each landscape unit to components of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, storage, and vertical percolation (recharge) for a five-layer soil column on a daily basis. The spatial distribution of mean annual recharge during 1951-2000 for each landscape unit was mapped by the use of a geographic information system. Recharge simulated by the water-budget model in Jordan Creek watershed during 1951-2000 averaged 12.3 inches per year and ranged by landscape unit from 0.11 to 17.05 inches per year. Mean annual recharge during 1951-2000 simulated by the water-budget model was most sensitive to changes to input values for precipitation and runoff-curve number. Mean annual recharge values for the crop, forest, pasture, and low-density urban land-use/land-cover classes were similar (11.2 to 12.2 inches per year) but were substantially less for high-density urban (6.8 inches per year), herbaceous wetlands (2.5 inches per year), and forested wetlands (1.3 inches per year). Recharge rates simulated for the crop, forest, pasture, and low-density urban land-cover classes were similar because those land-use/land-cover classes are represented in the model with parameter values that either did not significantly affect simulated recharge or tended to have offsetting effects on recharge. For example, for landscapes with forest land cover, values of runoff-curve number assigned to the model were smaller than for other land-use/land-cover classes (causing more recharge and less runoff), but the maximum depth of evapotranspiration was larger than for other land-use/ land-cover classes because of deeper root penetration in forests (causing more evapotranspiration and less recharge). The smaller simulated recharge for high-density urban and wetland land-use/land-cover classes was caused by the large values of runoff-curve number (greater than 90) assigned to those classes. The large runoff-curve number, however, certainly is not realistic for all wetlands; some wetlands act as areas of ground-water discharge and some as areas of recharge. Simulated mean annual recharge computed by the water-budget model for the 53-square-mile part of the watershed upstream from the streamflow-gaging station near Schnecksville was compared to estimates of recharge and base flow determined by analysis of streamflow records from 1967 to 2000. The mean annual recharge of 12.4 inches per year simulated by the water-budget method for 1967-2000 was less than estimates of mean annual recharge of 19.3 inches per year computed from the RORA computer program and base flow computed by the PART computer program (15.1 inches per year). In theory, the water-budget method provides a practical tool for estimating differences in recharge at local scales of interest, and the watershed- average recharge rate of 12.4 inches per year computed by the method is reasonable. However, the mean annual surface runoff of 4.5 inches per year simulated by the model is unrealistically small. The sum of surface runoff and recharge simulated by the water-budget model (16.9 inches per year) is 7 inches per year less than the streamflow measured at the gaging station near Schnecksville (23.9 inches per year) during 1967-2000, indicating that evapotranspiration is overestimated by the water-budget model by that amount. This discrepancy ca

Scientific Investigations Report↗

A comparison of drainage basin nutrient inputs with instream nutrient loads for seven rivers in Georgia and Florida, 1986-90

Instream nutrient loads of the Altamaha, Suwannee, St. Johns, Satilla, Ogeechee, Withlacoochee, and Ochlockonee River Basins were computed and compared with nutrient inputs for each basin for the period 1986-90. Nutrient constituents that were considered included nitrate, ammonia, organic nitrogen, and total phosphorus. Sources of nutrients considered for this analysis included atmospheric deposition, fertilizer, animal waste, wastewater-treatment plant discharge, and septic discharge. The mean nitrogen input ranged from 2,400 kilograms per year per square kilometer (kg/yr)km2 in the Withlacoochee River Basin to 5,470 (kg/yr)km2 in the Altamaha River Basin. The Satilla and Ochlockonee River Basins also had large amounts of nitrogen input per unit area, totaling 5,430 and 4,920 (kg/yr)km2, respectively. Fertilizer or animal waste, as sources of nitrogen, predominated in all basins. Atmospheric deposition contributed less than one-fourth of the mean total nitrogen input to all basins and was consistently the third largest input in all but the Ogeechee River Basin, where it was the second largest. The mean total phosphorus input ranged from 331 (kg/yr)km2 in the Withlacoochee River Basin to 1,380 (kg/yr)km2 in both the Altamaha and Satilla River Basins. The Ochlockonee River Basin had a phosphorus input of 1,140 (kg/yr)km2. Per unit area, the Suwannee River discharged the highest instream mean total nitrogen and phosphorus loads and also discharged higher instream nitrate loads per unit area than the other six rivers. Phosphorus loads in stream discharge were highest in the Suwannee and Ochlockonee Rivers. The ratio of nutrient outputs to inputs for the seven studied rivers ranged from 4.2 to 14.9 percent, with the St. Johns (14.9 percent) and Suwannee (12.1 percent) Rivers having significantly higher percentages than those from the other basins. The output/input percentages for mean total phosphorus ranged from 1.0 to 7.0 percent, with the St. Johns (6.2 percent) and Suwannee (7.0 percent) Rivers exporting the highest percentage of phosphorus. Although instream nutrient loads constitute only one of the various pathways nutrients may take in leaving a river basin, only a relatively small part of nutrient input to the basin leaves the basin in stream discharge for the major coastal rivers examined in this study. The actual amount of nutrient transported in a river basin depends on the ways in which nutrients are physically handled, geographically distributed, and chemically assimilated within a river basin.

Florida, Georgia↗

Influence of septic systems on stream base flow in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin near Metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, 2012

Septic systems were identified at 241,733 locations in a 2,539-square-mile (mi 2 ) study area that includes all or parts of 12 counties in the Metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, area. Septic system percolation may locally be an important component of streamflow in small drainage basins where it augments natural groundwater recharge, especially during extreme low-flow conditions. The amount of groundwater reaching streams depends on how much is intercepted by plants or infiltrates to deeper parts of the groundwater system that flows beyond a basin divide and does not discharge into streams within a basin. The potential maximum percolation from septic systems in the study area is 62 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s), of which 52 ft 3 /s is in the Chattahoochee River Basin and 10 ft 3 /s is in the Flint River Basin. These maximum percolation rates represent 0.4 to 5.7 percent of daily mean streamflow during the 2011–12 period at the farthest downstream gaging site (station 02338000) on the Chattahoochee River, and 0.5 to 179 percent of daily mean streamflow at the farthest downstream gaging site on the Flint River (02344350). To determine the difference in base flow between basins having different septic system densities, hydrograph separation analysis was completed using daily mean streamflow data at streamgaging stations at Level Creek (site 02334578), with a drainage basin having relatively high septic system density of 101 systems per square mile, and Woodall Creek (site 02336313), with a drainage basin having relatively low septic system density of 18 systems per square mile. Results indicated that base-flow yield during 2011–12 was higher at the Level Creek site, with a median of 0.47 cubic feet per second per square mile ([ft 3 /s]/mi 2 ), compared to a median of 0.16 (ft 3 /s)/mi 2 , at the Woodall Creek site. At the less urbanized Level Creek site, there are 515 septic systems with a daily maximum percolation rate of 0.14 ft 3 /s, accounting for 11 percent of the base flow in September 2012. At the more urban Woodall Creek site, there are 50 septic systems with an average daily maximum percolation rate of 0.0097 ft 3 /s, accounting for 5 percent of base flow in September 2012. Streamflow measurements at 133 small drainage basins (less than 5 mi2 in area) during September 2012 indicated no statistically significant difference in streamflow or specific conductance between basins having high and low density of septic systems (HDS and LDS, respectively). The median base-flow yield was 0.04 (f 3 /s)/mi 2 for HDS sites, ranging from 0 to 0.52 (ft 3 /s)/mi 2 , and 0.10 (ft 3 /s)/mi 2 for LDS sites, ranging from 0 to 0.49 (ft 3 /s)/mi 2 . A Wilcoxon rank-sum test indicated the median base-flow yields for HDS and LDS sites were not statistically different, with a p-value of 0.345. Because of the large size of the study area and associated variations in basin characteristics, data collected in September 2012 were also evaluated on the basis of the basins physical characteristics in an attempt to reduce or eliminate other basin characteristics that might affect base flow. Basins were evaluated based on geologic area, four geographic subareas, and 45-meter (147.6 ft) buffer zone; there were no statistically significant differences between median base-flow yield for HDS and LDS basins. It is probable that detection of the contribution from septic system percolation in base flow at many of the sites visited in September 2012 was obscured by a combination of the limitations of measurement accuracy and evapotranspiration. Detection of septic system percolation may also have been complicated by leaky water and sewer mains, which may have resulted in higher streamflows in LDS basins relative to HDS basins.

Georgia↗

Mercury in precipitation in Indiana, January 2001–December 2003

Mercury in precipitation was monitored during 2001 through 2003 at four locations in Indiana as part of the National Atmospheric Deposition Program-Mercury Deposition Network (NADP-MDN). Monitoring stations were operated at Roush Lake near Huntington, Clifty Falls State Park near Madison, Monroe County Regional Airport near Bloomington, and Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore near Porter. At these monitoring stations, precipitation amounts were measured and weekly samples were collected for analysis of total mercury and methylmercury by low-level methods. Wet deposition was computed with the total mercury and methylmercury concentrations and the precipitation amounts. In 3 years of weekly samples collected at the four monitoring stations, the volume-weighted total mercury concentration was 11.5 ng/L (nanograms per liter). As a reference for comparison, the total mercury concentration in 47 percent of the samples analyzed was greater than the Indiana water-quality standard for mercury (12 ng/L, protecting aquatic life) and nearly all of the concentrations exceeded the Indiana water-quality standards for mercury in the Great Lakes system (1.8 ng/L, protecting human health, and 1.3 ng/L, protecting wild mammals and birds). The precipitation-weighted concentrations at three of the monitoring stations in Indiana in 2003 were in the top 40 percent of all monitoring stations in the NADP-MDN and the concentration at Indiana Dunes was the eighth highest in the NADP-MDN for 2003. At the four monitoring stations during the study period, the mean weekly total mercury deposition was 243 ng/m 2 (nanograms per square meter) and mean annual total mercury deposition was 12,623 ng/m 2 . The annual mercury deposition at the four monitoring stations in Indiana in 2003 was in the top 40 percent of all monitoring stations in the NADP-MDN and the annual mercury deposition at the Clifty Falls station was the tenth highest in the NADP-MDN for 2003. For the 3-year period, the median methylmercury concentration in weekly samples was 0.058 ng/L with a maximum of 5.77 ng/L. Normalized methylmercury deposition was 2.09 ng/m 2 per inch of precipitation and methylmercury deposition was 0.7 percent of the total mercury deposition. The annual and mean weekly methylmercury deposition was highest at the Roush Lake station. Among the monitoring stations in the NADP-MDN with methylmercury data, methylmercury deposition at the monitoring stations in Indiana appeared to be higher than at eight stations in Wisconsin and Minnesota for that same time period, although methylmercury concentrations in Indiana were similar to or lower than those in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Geographically, the weekly total mercury concentrations at Indiana Dunes and Clifty Falls were statistically higher than concentrations at Bloomington, although a statistical difference in weekly total mercury deposition was not found among the four monitoring stations. Annual mercury emissions from sources in the vicinity of Indiana Dunes and Clifty Falls in 2001 were more than 10 times those at Bloomington, although other factors may help explain the differences in total mercury concentrations, such as the types of mercury emissions, mercury transport from sources outside Indiana, and meteorological conditions. Mercury concentrations and deposition varied at the four monitoring stations during the 3-year period. Total mercury concentrations in weekly samples ranged from 1.54 to 77 ng/L and weekly mercury deposition ranged from 0.8 to 2,456 ng/m 2 . Data from weekly samples exhibited seasonal patterns. Total mercury concentrations and deposition were highest in spring and summer and lowest in winter. Methylmercury concentrations were highest in winter and methylmercury deposition was highest in spring. Annual precipitation at the four monitoring stations was highest in 2003, exceeding the precipitation normals in spring and summer 2003. Annual mercury deposition in 2003 at the Roush Lake, Clifty Falls, and Indiana Dunes was as much as 41 to 67 percent higher in 2003 than in 2001 or in 2002 at those stations. Total mercury deposition that was more than 10 percent of the mean annual deposition (1,262 ng/m 2 ) was recorded in 11 of 551 weekly samples from the study period. These samples contained approximately 3 inches or more of rain and most were collected in spring and summer 2003. The highest deposition (2,456 ng/m 2 in a sample from Roush Lake) was 15.7 percent of the annual deposition at that station and approximately 10 times the mean weekly deposition for Indiana. High deposition recorded in three weekly samples at Clifty Falls contributed 31 percent of the annual deposition at that station in 2003. Weekly samples with high mercury deposition may help to explain the differences in annual mercury deposition among the four monitoring stations in Indiana.

Indiana↗

Effects of flood control alternatives on fish and wildlife resources of the Malheur-Harney lakes basin

Malheur Lake is the largest freshwater marsh in the western contiguous United States and is one of the main management units of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon. The marsh provides excellent waterfowl production habitat as well as vital migration habitats for birds in the Pacific flyway. Water shortages have typically been a problem in this semiarid area; however, record snowfalls and cool summers have recently caused Malheur Lake to rise to its highest level in recorded history. This has resulted in the loss of approximately 57,000 acres of important wildlife habitat as well as extensive flooding of local ranches, roads, and railroad lines. Because of the importance of the Refuge, any water management plan for the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin needs to consider the impact of management alternatives on the hydrology of Malheur Lake. The facilitated modeling workshop described in this report was conducted January 14-18, 1985, under the joint sponsorship of the Portland Ecological Services Field Office and the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Region 1, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). The Portland Field Office is responsible for FWS reporting requirements on Federal water resource projects while the Refuge staff has management responsibility for much of the land affected by high water levels in the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin. The primary objective of the workshop was to begin gathering and analyzing information concerning potential fish and wildlife impacts, needs, and opportunities associated with proposed U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) flood control alternatives for Malheur Lake. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a computer model that would simulate the hydrologic effects of the various alternatives and any concommitant changes in vegetation communities and wildlife use patterns. The simulation model is composed of three connected submodels. The Hydrology submodel calculates changes in lake volume, elevation, and surface area, as well as changes in water quality, that result from the proposed water management projects (upstream storage, upstream diversions, drainage canals) and the no action alternative. The Vegetation submodel determines associated changes in the areal extent of wetland and upland vegetation communities. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates indices of abundance or habitat suitability for colonial nesting birds (great egret, double-crested cormorant, white-faced ibis), greater sandhill crane, diving ducks, tundra swan, dabbling ducks, and Canada goose based on hydrologic and vegetation conditions. The model represents the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin, but provides water quantity and quality indicators associated with additional flows that might occur in the Malheur River Basin. Several management scenarios, representing various flood control alternatives and assumptions concerning future runoff, were run to analyze model behavior. Scenario results are not intended as an analysis of all potential management actions or assumptions concerning future runoff. Rather, they demonstrate the type of analysis that could be conducted if the model was sufficiently refined and tested. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. This workshop initiated interaction among the primary State and Federal resource and development agencies in a nonadversarial forum. The exchange of information and expertise among agencies provided the FWS with the best information currently available for use in the Planning Aid Letter it will develop at the Reconnaissance state of the COE study. If the COE subsequently initiates a Feasability Study, this information will be refined further and will aid the FWS in preparing its Coordination Act Report on any flood control alternative proposed by the COE. The model building and testing process also helped identify model limitations and more general information needs that should be evaluated for further study prior to preparation of an FWS Coordination Act Report. Major needs associated with the Hydrology submodel include a more detailed representation of hydrologic units (separately consider Harney Lake, Mud Lake, and Malheur Lake or the three hydrological units within Malheur Lake, rather than a combined lake system) and explicitly representation of groundwater storage and discharge in water budget calculations. A better representation of the hydrological units will require more detailed topographic data for the basin, capacity-elevation and elevation-surface area curves for each unit, and better water flow data between the units. Additional water quality parameters and constraints on proposed canal operation due to conditions in the Malheur River might also be added. Key Vegetation submodel needs include fine-tuning existing vegetation relationships in the model and adding relationships to address the influence of historical conditions on vegetation development, effects of very rapid changes in lake level, effects of wildlife populations (e.g., carp, muskrat), responses of vegetation to habitat management actions (e.g, haying, grazing, burning), and better representation of sago pondweed dynamics. A complementary geographic information system might also be developed for spatial analyses. Major needs that should be evaluated for the Wildlife submodel include addition of other wildlife species that have important effects on habitat on the Refuge (e.g., carp, muskrat) and consideration of additional life-cycle requisites and controlling variable for species presently in the model. Some of these limitations could perhaps be overcome if historical data on habitat conditions were developed to use with historical data on wildlife populations.

Oregon↗

Landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in Guatemala -- inventory and discussion

The torrential rains that accompanied Hurricane Mitch in October and November of 1998 triggered thousands of landslides in the moderate to steep terrain bordering the Motagua and Polochic Rivers in eastern Guatemala. Using aerial photographs taken between January and March 2000 we mapped all visible landslides larger than about 15 m in minimum dimension in a study area of 10,000 km2 encompassing twenty 1:50,000-scale topographic map quadrangles. Rainfall from Hurricane Mitch was exceptional because it was geographically widespread, prolonged over a period of about a week, moderate to heavy in intensity, and occurred at the end of the rainy season when the ground already had a high moisture content. As documented in this report, this type of rainfall, on saturated or nearly saturated ground, has the capability to trigger both shallow and deep-seated landslides over a large area. We mapped about 11,500 landslides in the study area. The mapped landslides were of two general types: relatively small, translational and rotational landslides that commonly mobilized into debris flows and covered less than several hectares in area (not including flow paths), and large, commonly translational, landslides that sometimes generated debris flows and covered between 15 ha and 25 ha (not including flow paths). The main concentrations of landslides are on moderate-to-steep hillslopes underlain by diverse geologic units. For the purpose of describing the mapped landslides, we divided the study area into five distinct regions based on differing geologic and geomorphic characteristics. These regions include the upper Polochic valley and surrounding highlands, the central Sierra de las Minas, the hills surrounding La Union and Zacapa, the eastern Sierra de las Minas, and the border region with Honduras. All of these areas received between 200 mm and 600 mm of rain over a 13-day period between October 25 and November 6. The highest rainfall amounts (400 mm to 600 mm) occurred in the Upper Polochic valley and surrounding highlands and in the central Sierra de las Minas. The lower rainfall amounts (200 mm to 400 mm) occurred in the hills surrounding La Union, the eastern Sierra de las Minas, and in the border region with Honduras. In general, the rainfall received in these areas is roughly equivalent to the average precipitation received in a 1-year period. We used 10-m digital elevation models (DEMs) generated from contours on two quadrangles in the central Sierra de las Minas to create a map showing areas that were susceptible to landslides during Hurricane Mitch. To create the Hurricane Mitch susceptibility map, we developed a susceptibility threshold equation based on elevation and gradient. The analysis indicates that, at least on two quadrangles, gradients less than 9? were not susceptible to landslides during Hurricane Mitch. The slope of the line defined by the threshold equation indicates that less rainfall was required to initiate landslides on steep gradients than on shallow gradients. Ninety percent of the mapped landslides that were triggered by Hurricane Mitch are within the susceptible zone shown on the map. Eightysix percent of landslides that were mapped as predating Hurricane Mitch, and all landslides mapped as postdating Hurricane Mitch, are within the susceptible zone. We used LAHARZ software to model the potential downstream area affected by debris if a large landslide dam on the Rio La Lima were to fail. The model shows that the area affected would be similar to the area that was affected by a debris flow that mobilized from a large landslide along the Rio La Lima during Hurricane Mitch. The characteristics of rainfall-triggered landslides described in this report can be used as a partial guide to future landslide activity triggered by rainstorms. On the basis of existing data, hazardous areas include: moderate to steep hillslopes and

Open-File Report↗

Anthropocene landscape change and the legacy of nineteenth- and twentieth-century mining in the Fourmile Catchment, Colorado Front Range

Human impacts on earth surface processes and materials are fundamental to understanding the proposed Anthropocene epoch. This study examines the magnitude, distribution, and long-term context of nineteenth- and twentieth-century mining in the Fourmile Creek catchment, Colorado, coupling airborne LiDAR topographic analysis with historical documents and field studies of river banks exposed by 2013 flooding. Mining impacts represent the dominant Anthropocene landscape change for this basin. Mining activity, particularly placer operations, controls floodplain stratigraphy and waste rock piles related to mining cover >5% of hillslopes in the catchment. Total rates of surface disturbance on slopes from mining activities (prospecting, mining, and road building) exceed pre-nineteenth-century rates by at least fifty times. Recent flooding and the overprint of human impacts obscure the record of Holocene floodplain evolution. Stratigraphic relations indicate that the Fourmile valley floor was as much as two meters higher in the past 2,000 years and that placer reworking, lateral erosion, or minor downcutting dominated from the late Holocene to present. Concentrations of As and Au in the fine fraction of hillslope soil, mining-related deposits, and fluvial deposits serve as a geochemical marker of mining activity in the catchment; reducing As and Au values in floodplain sediment will take hundreds of years to millennia. Overall, the Fourmile Creek catchment provides a valuable example of Anthropocene landscape change for mountainous regions of the Western United States, where hillslope and floodplain markers of human activity vary, high rates of geomorphic processes affect mixing and preservation of marker deposits, and long-term impact varies by landscape location.

Colorado↗

Precipitation and Runoff Simulations of the Carson Range and Pine Nut Mountains, and Updated Estimates of Ground-Water Inflow and the Ground-Water Budgets for Basin-Fill Aquifers of Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, and Alpine County, California

Recent estimates of ground-water inflow to the basin-fill aquifers of Carson Valley, Nevada, and California, from the adjacent Carson Range and Pine Nut Mountains ranged from 22,000 to 40,000 acre-feet per year using water-yield and chloride-balance methods. In this study, watershed models were developed for watersheds with perennial streams and for watersheds with ephemeral streams in the Carson Range and Pine Nut Mountains to provide an independent estimate of ground-water inflow. This report documents the development and calibration of the watershed models, presents model results, compares the results with recent estimates of ground-water inflow to the basin-fill aquifers of Carson Valley, and presents updated estimates of the ground-water budget for basin-fill aquifers of Carson Valley. The model used for the study was the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter model designed to simulate precipitation and snowmelt runoff as well as snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. Geographic Information System software was used to manage spatial data, characterize model drainages, and to develop Hydrologic Response Units. Models were developed for * Two watersheds with gaged perennial streams in the Carson Range and two watersheds with gaged perennial streams in the Pine Nut Mountains using measured daily mean runoff, * Ten watersheds with ungaged perennial streams using estimated daily mean runoff, * Ten watershed with ungaged ephemeral streams in the Carson Range, and * A large area of ephemeral runoff near the Pine Nut Mountains. Models developed for the gaged watersheds were used as index models to guide the calibration of models for ungaged watersheds. Model calibration was constrained by daily mean runoff for 4 gaged watersheds and for 10 ungaged watersheds in the Carson Range estimated in a previous study. The models were further constrained by annual precipitation volumes estimated in a previous study to provide estimates of ground-water inflow using similar water input. The calibration periods were water years 1990-2002 for watersheds in the Carson Range, and water years 1981-97 for watersheds in the Pine Nut Mountains. Daily mean values for water years 1990-2002 were then simulated using the calibrated watershed models in the Pine Nut Mountains. The daily mean values of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, and ground-water inflow simulated from the watershed models were summed to provide annual mean rates and volumes for each year of the simulations, and mean annual rates and volumes computed for water years 1990-2002. Mean annual bias for the period of record for models of Daggett Creek and Fredericksburg Canyon watersheds, two gaged perennial watersheds in the Carson Range, was within 4 percent and relative errors were about 6 and 12 percent, respectively. Model fit was not as satisfactory for two gaged perennial watersheds, Pine Nut and Buckeye Creeks, in the Pine Nut Mountains. The Pine Nut Creek watershed model had a large negative mean annual bias and a relative error of -11 percent, underestimated runoff for all years but the wet years in the latter part of the record, but adequately simulated the bulk of the spring runoff most of the years. The Buckeye Creek watershed model overestimated mean annual runoff with a relative error of about -5 percent when water year 1994 was removed from the analysis because it had a poor record. The bias and error of the calibrated models were within generally accepted limits for watershed models, indicating the simulated rates and volumes of runoff and ground-water inflow were reasonable. The total mean annual ground-water inflow to Carson Valley computed using estimates simulated by the watershed models was 38,000 acre-feet, including ground-water inflow from Eagle Valley, recharge from precipitation on eolian sand and gravel deposits, and ground-water recharge from precipitation on the western alluvial fans. The estimate was in close agreement with that obtained from the chloride-balance method, 40,000 acre-feet, but was considerably greater than the estimate obtained from the water-yield method, 22,000 acre-feet. The similar estimates obtained from the watershed models and chloride-balance method, two relatively independent methods, provide more confidence that they represent a reasonably accurate volume of ground-water inflow to Carson Valley. However, the two estimates are not completely independent because they use similar distributions of mean annual precipitation. Annual ground-water recharge of the basin-fill aquifers in Carson Valley ranged from 51,000 to 54,000 acre-feet computed using estimates of ground-water inflow to Carson Valley simulated from the watershed models combined with previous estimates of other ground-water budget components. Estimates of mean annual ground-water discharge range from 44,000 to 47,000 acre-feet. The low range estimate for ground-water recharge, 51,000 acre-feet per year, is most similar to the high range estimate for ground-water discharge, 47,000 acre-feet per year. Thus, an average annual volume of about 50,000 acre-feet is a reasonable estimate for mean annual ground-water recharge to and discharge from the basin-fill aquifers in Carson Valley. The results of watershed models indicate that significant interannual variability in the volumes of ground-water inflow is caused by climate variations. During multi-year drought conditions, the watershed simulations indicate that ground-water recharge could be as much as 80 percent less than the mean annual volume of 50,000 acre-feet.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

California State waters map series—Benthic habitat characterization in the region offshore of Morro Bay, California

Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard geoform, substrate, and biotic component geographic information system products were developed for the California State waters of south-central California in the region offshore of Morro Bay. The study was motivated by interest in development of offshore wind-energy capacity and infrastructure in Federal waters offshore. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, in coordination with the State of California and many other members of the California Intergovernmental Renewable Energy Task Force, issued calls for information in 2018 for the study area offshore of Morro Bay, California. The study area is adjacent to a nuclear power plant (currently scheduled for decommissioning) with a developed electric grid connection, and in an area of high wind resource potential. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is the lead agency responsible for planning and leasing in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone and funded this project to assess baseline conditions of, and the potential effects on, the seafloor environment. This project, carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey, resulted in three data releases for individual map blocks that are part of the California State Waters Map Series: (1) Offshore of Point Estero, (2) Offshore of Morro Bay, and (3) Offshore of Point Buchon. The study area consists of 341 square kilometers (km 2 ) of multibeam echo sounder (MBES) data acquired by Fugro, Inc., in 2010. Towed camera-sled video was acquired in 2012 to supervise the classification of the MBES data into habitats. There were 935 annotations of organisms and habitat made from 22 video transects. Using video observations of habitat as ground truth, derivatives of the MBES data were classified into 3 seafloor character types (hard-rugged, hard-flat, and soft-flat), 25 modifier groups, and 9 geoforms. The study area substrate is predominantly soft-flat sediment (mud and fine sand) covering 191.3 km 2 (56.1 percent) of the area. Hard-flat substrate areas, predominantly coarse sediment in scour depressions, cover 52.2 km 2 (15.3 percent) of the study area. The hard-rugged substrate areas are primarily outcrops of layered sedimentary bedrock and constitute 97.5 km 2 of the study area (28.6 percent). After classification of bathymetry and backscatter raster images according to substrate, false-positive hard areas produced by noise artifacts were removed by manual editing. Nine geoforms were then identified in the analysis. The predominant geoforms mirror the seafloor character results, shelf geoforms (flat areas covered in soft sediment), rock outcrop geoforms (hard, rugged areas), and scour depression geoforms (flat areas covered in coarse sediment formed by bottom currents).

California↗

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of Virginia’s Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis conducted on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore shows that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system due to local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have fundamentally altered groundwater flow from pre-development conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers supplying groundwater is a relatively small portion of the total groundwater water budget for the aquifer system. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model show that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal water bodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer currently is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from areas outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2025, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum have resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or in adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. Downward groundwater flow continues under current conditions, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, those rates are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Estimated groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, though that was not measured directly in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, show that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up over 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. Currently, estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The current withdrawal rate from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and small rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

EarthArXiv↗

Glaciers of North America - Glaciers of Alaska

Glaciers cover about 75,000 km 2 of Alaska, about 5 percent of the State. The glaciers are situated on 11 mountain ranges, 1 large island, an island chain, and 1 archipelago and range in elevation from more than 6,000 m to below sea level. Alaska's glaciers extend geographically from the far southeast at lat 55 deg 19'N., long 130 deg 05'W., about 100 kilometers east of Ketchikan, to the far southwest at Kiska Island at lat 52 deg 05'N., long 177 deg 35'E., in the Aleutian Islands, and as far north as lat 69 deg 20'N., long 143 deg 45'W., in the Brooks Range. During the 'Little Ice Age', Alaska's glaciers expanded significantly. The total area and volume of glaciers in Alaska continue to decrease, as they have been doing since the 18th century. Of the 153 1:250,000-scale topographic maps that cover the State of Alaska, 63 sheets show glaciers. Although the number of extant glaciers has never been systematically counted and is thus unknown, the total probably is greater than 100,000. Only about 600 glaciers (about 1 percent) have been officially named by the U.S. Board on Geographic Names (BGN). There are about 60 active and former tidewater glaciers in Alaska. Within the glacierized mountain ranges of southeastern Alaska and western Canada, 205 glaciers (75 percent in Alaska) have a history of surging. In the same region, at least 53 present and 7 former large ice-dammed lakes have produced jokulhlaups (glacier-outburst floods). Ice-capped volcanoes on mainland Alaska and in the Aleutian Islands have a potential for jokulhlaups caused by subglacier volcanic and geothermal activity. Because of the size of the area covered by glaciers and the lack of large-scale maps of the glacierized areas, satellite imagery and other satellite remote-sensing data are the only practical means of monitoring regional changes in the area and volume of Alaska's glaciers in response to short- and long-term changes in the maritime and continental climates of the State. A review of the literature for each of the 11 mountain ranges, the large island, the island chain, and the archipelago was conducted to determine both the individual and the regional status of Alaskan glaciers and to characterize changes in thickness and terminus position of representative glaciers in each mountain range or island group. In many areas, observations used for determining changes date from the late 18th or early 19th century. Temperature records at all Alaskan meteorological recording stations document a 20th century warming trend. Therefore, characterizing the response of Alaska's glaciers to changing climate helps to quantify potential sea-level rise from past, present, and future melting of glacier ice (deglaciation of the 14 glacierized regions of Alaska), understand present and future hydrological changes, and define impacts on ecosystems that are responding to deglacierization. Many different types of data were scrutinized to determine baselines and to assess the magnitude of glacier change. These data include the following: published descriptions of glaciers (1794-2000), especially the comprehensive research by Field (1975a) and his colleagues in the Alaska part of Mountain Glaciers of the Northern Hemisphere, aerial photography (since 1926), ground photography (since 1884), airborne radar (1981-91), satellite radar (1978-98), space photography (1984-94), multispectral satellite imagery (since 1972), aerial reconnaissance and field observations made by many scientists during the past several decades, and various types of proxy data. The published and unpublished data available for each glacierized region and individual glacier varied significantly. Geospatial analysis of digitized U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) topographic maps is used to statistically define selected glaciological parameters in the eastern part of the Alaska Range. The analysis determined that every mountain range and island group investigated can be characterized by significant glacier retreat, thinning, and (or) stagnation, especially those glaciers that end at lower elevations. At some locations, glaciers completely disappeared during the 20th century. In other areas, retreat that started as early as the early 18th century has continued into the 21st century. Ironically, in several areas, retreat is resulting in an increase in the total number of glaciers; even though individual glaciers are separating, the volume and area of ice continue to decrease.

Alaska↗

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis based on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore indicates that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system because of local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have altered groundwater flow from predevelopment conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers is a relatively small part of the total groundwater budget for the aquifer system compared to the rate of recharge at the land surface. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model indicate that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal waterbodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2023, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. For the most recent simulated conditions (2023) downward groundwater flow continues, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, rates of downward flow are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, even though that was not measured in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, indicate that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up more than 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. For the most recent simulated period (2023), estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The reported withdrawal rate for this period from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Virginia Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and low rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

Virginia↗

Relative abundance and distribution of fishes and crayfish at Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge, Nye County, Nevada, 2007-08

This study provides baseline data of native and non-native fish populations in Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Nye County, Nevada, that can serve as a gauge in native fish enhancement efforts. In support of Carson Slough restoration, comprehensive surveys of Ash Meadows NWR fishes were conducted seasonally from fall 2007 through summer 2008. A total of 853 sampling stations were created using Geographic Information Systems and National Agricultural Imagery Program. In four seasons of sampling, Amargosa pupfish (genus Cyprinodon) was captured at 388 of 659 stations. The number of captured Amargosa pupfish ranged from 5,815 (winter 2008) to 8,346 (summer 2008). The greatest success in capturing Amargosa pupfish was in warm water spring-pools with temperature greater than 25 degrees C, headwaters of warm water spring systems, and shallow (depths less than 10 centimeters) grassy marshes. In four seasons of sampling, Ash Meadows speckled dace (Rhinichthys osculus nevadesis) was captured at 96 of 659 stations. The number of captured Ash Meadows speckled dace ranged from 1,009 (summer 2008) to 1,552 (winter 2008). The greatest success in capturing Ash Meadows speckled dace was in cool water spring-pools with temperature less than 20 degrees C and in the high flowing water outflows. Among 659 sampling stations within the range of Amargosa pupfish, red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) was collected at 458 stations, western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) at 374 stations, and sailfin molly (Poecilia latipinna) at 128 stations. School Springs was restored during the course of this study. Prior to restoration of School Springs, maximum Warm Springs Amargosa pupfish (Cyprinodon nevadensis pectoralis) captured from the six springs of the Warm Springs Complex was 765 (fall 2007). In four seasons of sampling, Warm Springs Amargosa pupfish were captured at 85 of 177 stations. The greatest success in capturing Warm Springs Amargosa pupfish when co-occurring with red swamp crayfish and western mosquitofish was in water with temperature greater than 26 degrees C near the springhead, and in shallow (depths less than 10 centimeters) grassy marshes. Among 177 sampling stations within the range of Warm Springs Amargosa pupfish, red swamp crayfish were collected at 96 stations and western mosquitofish were collected at 49 stations. Removal of convict cichlid (Amatitlania nigrofasciata) from Fairbanks Spring was followed by a substantial increase in Ash Meadows Amargosa pupfish (Cyprinodon nevadensis mionectes) captures from 910 pre-removal to 3,056 post-removal. Red swamp crayfish was continually removed from Bradford 1 Spring, which seemed to cause an increase in the speckled dace population. Restoration of Kings Pool and Jackrabbit Springs promoted the success of native fishes with the greatest densities in restored reaches. Ongoing restoration of Carson Slough and its tributaries, as well as control and elimination of invasive species, is expected to increase abundance and distribution of Ash Meadows' native fish populations. Further analysis of data from this study will help determine the habitat characteristic(s) that promote native species and curtail non-native species.

Open-File Report↗

Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the overarching goal of the USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision, which consists of three components: (1) integrated data and information, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information—all designed and delivered to respond to user needs. To launch this vision and help shape the design and implementation of integrated predictive science, the USGS Regional Offices each developed a set of use cases (hereafter Use Cases)—short descriptions of potential science applications that could clearly address high priority decision-making needs of our stakeholders and that align with an integrated science focus. Use Cases are not actionable science planning documents, nor stand-alone scholarly works, but should be considered as innovative, next-generation science ideas that can be considered as potential components of science plans still under development. The goal of Use Case development was to (1) identify and characterize existing USGS scientific capacities and expertise that can support science goals and products, (2) identify opportunities to leverage current capacities for next-generation science, and (3) foster engagement across the entire Bureau to further refine the USGS strategy for EarthMAP and integrated predictive science. The Use Case development effort documented in this report was coordinated by the Use Case Development Team (UCDT), consisting of representatives from each region. The UCDT undertook five tasks: (1) develop a unified approach to engage bureau scientists consistently across all regions in aspirational thinking about what can be accomplished; (2) work with the regions and their Science Centers to generate an initial set of Use Cases, authored directly by scientists; (3) characterize, summarize, and document the initial set of Use Case submissions from authors to illuminate bureau-level demand for integrated science; (4) compare existing and needed capacities from the Use Case descriptions with preliminary results of the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021); and (5) describe lessons learned from the Use Case development process and provide recommendations to inform future efforts to generate integrated science activities. This report outlines the approach the UCDT developed to solicit Use Cases from the regions and summarizes the high-level qualitative findings from this first-round effort. The UCDT received 36 Use Cases from the regions and identified potential points of convergence and commonalities considered useful in making connections among the participating scientists. The Southwest (SW) Region and the Rocky Mountain (RM) Region asked scientists to give special consideration to Use Cases with applicability to the Colorado River Basin, and seven of the Use Cases specifically named that geographic area as a focus. Coastal hazards and coastal resilience were identified in Use Cases from the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) Regions. Aspects of wildfire and post-wildfire response were part of Uses Cases from AK, RM, and SW Regions. The greatest convergence of Use Case themes was related to conservation of public lands and waters, which is a powerful linkage lending strength to future collaborative efforts. The most common type of stakeholder decisions that would be informed by the Use Case science applications were related to adaptation, mitigation, and response (for example, how to increase the resilience of coastal communities to climate-related stressors and how to prevent or respond to harmful algal blooms). Other common types of decisions included water and land management decisions (including operational water management decisions such as reservoir operations and land use planning in the sagebrush biome), decisions about how to manage and conserve habitats and species, and risk management decisions (such as managing the post-wildfire flood risks). These decision types are not exclusive because many Use Cases cross categories. Use Case authors identified existing and needed science and technology capabilities required for Use Case implementation, which were then aligned to capabilities assessed in the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021). Strong alignment was found for data and information integration approaches, modeling and prediction approaches, and capabilities related to delivery of actionable information. A majority of Use Cases indicated insufficient current capacity for needed data collection methods, data integration, and modeling and prediction approaches, whereas only 25 percent indicated insufficient capacity for actionable information delivery. Overall, many Use Case capacity demand gaps could potentially be met by existing bureau-wide capacity. In addition, nearly half of the Use Cases could potentially be implemented within 3 years if funding, capabilities, and personnel impediments were removed and science priorities were realigned. Several challenges emerged during the Use Case development process. The first challenge was developing an approach that was flexible enough to accommodate regional differences in planning and implementation, while also ensuring enough guidance to promote meaningful summary analyses. The UCDT encountered a strong demand for continuous communication and education to improve overall understanding of the integrated predictive science strategy. Another challenge was managing expectations about EarthMAP activities as a design effort that was not aligned to an immediate funding opportunity. Connecting the Use Cases to stakeholder needs without the opportunity for direct stakeholder engagement was also challenging. The last notable challenge was in obtaining consistent interpretation and characterization of the qualitative data housed in the narrative descriptions of Use Cases, written in different styles. Overall, the 36 Use Cases can serve as components of a road map for advancing integrated monitoring and predictive science throughout the USGS by revealing opportunities to (1) encourage cross-region initiatives that address shared interests in common themes by integrating similar Use Cases and through direct involvement of stakeholders in identifying needs and designing effective responses, (2) leverage the Use Cases to target investments that are aligned with the Bureau and Department of the Interior (DOI) priorities, (3) connect Use Cases and the results of the companion EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021) to identify potential priorities for capacity building investments, and (4) raise awareness of common integrated and interdisciplinary science interests within and across the regions through Use Case and Capacity Assessment summary outreach activities.

Open-File Report↗

Status and trends of North American bats: Summer occupancy analysis 2010-2019

• We developed an analytical pipeline supported by web-based infrastructure for integrating continental scale bat monitoring data (stationary acoustic, mobile acoustic, and capture records) to estimate summer (May 1–Aug 31) occupancy probabilities and changes in occupancy over time for 12 North American bat species. This serves as one of multiple lines of evidence that inform the status and trends of bat populations. • We analyzed data from a total of 12 bat species (Table 1), 11 of which have tested positive for Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), a fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome (WNS)—a disease that has led to significant rates of mortality for subterranean hibernating bat species in North America. A twelfth species was also selected because of high rates of mortality at wind energy facilities. Additional species were considered but not selected due to data limitations. • We estimated occupancy probabilities for 2010 through 2019 for three species ( Myotis lucifugus , MYLU; Myotis septentrionalis , MYSE; and P erimyotis subflavus , PESU). For an additional nine species, we estimated occupancy probabilities for 2016 through 2019 ( Myotis evotis , MYEV; Myotis grisescens , MYGR; Myotis leibii , MYLE; Myotis thysanodes , MYTH; Myotis volans , MYVO; Myotis yumanensis , MYYU; Eptesicus fuscus , EPFU; Lasionycteris noctivagans , LANO; and Lasiurus cinereus , LACI). • For each species, we provide range-wide occupancy probability predictions (e.g., predicted summer occupancy distribution maps) each year at a spatial resolution of 100 km2 and provide regional estimates of mean occupancy probability aggregated at larger spatial scales (state/province/territory, range-wide). • For each species, we also provide trends over time (average annual change rate and total change rate) in mean occupancy probabilities at multiple spatial scales (state/province/territory, range-wide) and when possible, over multiple timescales (short, medium, long). • Results suggest that over the short-term (2016-2019), two ( Myotis lucifugus and Perimyotis subflavus ) of 12 species have experienced declines in range-wide average occupancy probability with at least 95% certainty. Seven species showed either minor increases or decreases in range-wide average occupancy probability but with less than 95% certainty in both trend indicators. Results over the longer term (eight years and 10 years of sampling) suggest that three hibernating species known to be highly affected by white-nose syndrome ( Myotis lucifugus , Myotis septentrionalis , and Perimyotis subflavus ) have experienced marked declines in range-wide average occupancy probabilities, with severity varying by species and region. Finally, the results for three species ( Eptesicus fuscus , Lasiurus cinereus , Lasionycteris noctivagans ) were inconclusive due to 1) borderline convergence issues in the model fitting procedure which suggests potentially unreliable estimates, 2) failure to reliably distinguish between false positives and true positive detections for ambiguous detections, and 3) largely uninformative covariates for occupancy and detection. • For Myotis lucifugus , Myotis septentrionalis , and Perimyotis subflavus we found meaningful associations in space and time between declining winter populations (likely a result of WNS) and summer occupancy distributions. • The representativeness of sampling data for each species’ status and trend estimates (e.g., state/province/territory) were also evaluated based on the percent of grid cells sampled each year with a goal of understanding the reliability of regional estimates and improving future monitoring efforts. • This work represents the most comprehensive effort to date to model North American bat distributions across their continental ranges. Despite current limitations highlighted in the discussion, the analytical methods and resulting status and trends estimates provide the best available science on summer bat populations across North America and will continue to improve over time as monitoring data sets and analytical methods improve. • Moving forward, our occupancy analyses will continue to improve with submission of more 1) data from currently underrepresented areas (i.e., improved geographic representation), 2) manually-vetted acoustic recordings, 3) capture records, and 4) roost location and count data (summer and winter).

Report↗

Intrusive rock database for the Digital Geologic Map of Utah

Digital geologic maps offer the promise of rapid and powerful answers to geologic questions using Geographic Information System software (GIS). Using modern GIS and database methods, a specialized derivative map can be easily prepared. An important limitation can be shortcomings in the information provided in the database associated with the digital map, a database which is often based on the legend of the original map. The purpose of this report is to show how the compilation of additional information can, when prepared as a database that can be used with the digital map, be used to create some types of derivative maps that are not possible with the original digital map and database. This Open-file Report consists of computer files with information about intrusive rocks in Utah that can be linked to the Digital Geologic Map of Utah (Hintze et al., 2000), an explanation of how to link the databases and map, and a list of references for the databases. The digital map, which represents the 1:500,000-scale Geologic Map of Utah (Hintze, 1980), can be obtained from the Utah Geological Survey (Map 179DM). Each polygon in the map has a unique identification number. We selected the polygons identified on the geologic map as intrusive rock, and constructed a database (UT_PLUT.xls) that classifies the polygons into plutonic map units (see tables). These plutonic map units are the key information that is used to relate the compiled information to the polygons on the map. The map includes a few polygons that were coded as intrusive on the state map but are largely volcanic rock; in these cases we note the volcanic rock names (rhyolite and latite) as used in the original sources Some polygons identified on the digital state map as intrusive rock were misidentified; these polygons are noted in a separate table of the database, along with some information about their true character. Fields may be empty because of lack of information from references used or difficulty in finding information. The information in the database is from a variety of sources, including geologic maps at scales ranging from 1:500,000 to 1:24,000, and thesis monographs. The references are shown twice: alphabetically and by region. The digital geologic map of Utah (Hintze and others, 2000) classifies intrusive rocks into only 3 categories, distinguished by age. They are: Ti, Tertiary intrusive rock; Ji, Upper to Middle Jurassic granite to quartz monzonite; and pCi, Early Proterozoic to Late Archean intrusive rock. Use of the tables provided in this report will permit selection and classification of those rocks by lithology and age. This database is a pilot study by the Survey and Analysis Project of the U.S. Geological Survey to characterize igneous rocks and link them to a digital map. The database, and others like it, will evolve as the project continues and other states are completed. We release this version now as an example, as a reference, and for those interested in Utah plutonic rocks.

Utah↗